NBA Draft 2011: Washington Wizards Are an Easy Fix

Number crunching can’t tell you everything and should never replace film, but in the case of the Washington Wizards, running the numbers can tell you quite a bit.

Where they are, where they need to be and the changes that need to be made in order to get there.

The draft has the potential to make the Wizards playoff contenders if they choose wisely, and this year, it seems likely that they may do just that…for once.

The Numbers Expose Problems

The Wiz are ranked 25th in the league in field goal percentage, 28th in three-point percentage (which is especially bad considering they also rank 27th in attempts), 25th in defensive rebounding, 29th in assists, and 21st in points. In total offense they’re ranked 28th; total defense 23rd.

Keep in mind the worst possible ranking is 30th. If nothing else I suppose the Wizards should be applauded for managing to scratch the bottom of the barrel so ubiquitously.

These Washington boys are a consistent bunch.

Analysis: Breaking Down the Numbers

On the surface, it might seem that all the numbers portray is that the Washington Wizards are an all-around catastrophe. Fortunately, there’s more to the story.

First, start with the easy stuff. The low point average is obviously related to the poor shooting percentages. The worse you shoot, the less you score. Having said that, breaking the shooting percentages down even further yields interesting results.

Last season the Wizards actually scored more two pointers than the league average, while shooting about two percent less accurately than your average Joe’s.

As compared to their three-point game, those numbers are fabulous. On three-pointers, the Wiz scored far less points and shot a horrendous 10 percent below the league average.

The low assists tie into the poor shooting. If John Wall hits an open man and he misses the shot, well, then there’s no assist.

The Wizards offensive troubles, while not limited to their poor shooting, are in large part a function of it.

On the defensive end of the court, the problem is even simpler: inept rebounding results in an abundance of second chance points for the opposing team.

That’s right, as atrocious as the Washington Wizards performed last season, their problems boil down to defensive rebounding, and shooting—especially from long range.

Solution in Context

Two problems as big as the Wiz have cannot be erased by the addition of three well-chosen players (the number of draft picks they have this year), but they can be ameliorated.

The Wizards need a dominant physical presence to secure rebounds under their own hoop, and a spot up shooter. Those two additions will have the added benefit of generally alleviating pressure on the offensive end of the court—not to mention on John Wall and Nick Young. 

The physical presence on the inside will make the defense want to contract in order to prevent aggressive post play, while the sniper will simultaneously impel expansion to cover the long range shot.

Combine those elements with the pass and slash game of John Wall and you have yourself a competitive team—not ready to contend for a championship but capable of a playoff run.

Problem Solving With the Draft

The Wizard’s current roster is unimpressive at best.

What they do have is John Wall at PG, clearly the best player on the team. SF Rashard Lewis, the autumn of his career beginning to frost with winter’s touch, and C JaVale McGee, despite sorely needing to expand his repertoire of post moves and polish those already in his possession, probably take the cake for runners-up.

The Wizards will build around that three player core, flawed as it may be. The first piece the Wizards need is a PF who can take over the defensive glass through a combination of force, athleticism and instinct. The second missing link is a shooter with range.

Who fits the bill, and more importantly, who can the Wizards realistically hope to acquire in the upcoming draft?

The Wizards have two first-round picks, No. 6 and 18, and one second-round pick, 34.

34th Pick: Shelvin Mack and Other Projections

With the 34th pick, the Wizards will first look for a backup to John Wall at PG and one that can shoot the three ball, thus adding diversity and some much needed range to their game.

Shelvin Mack, PG

Shelvin Mack—if he’s still available at this juncture—would be a strong candidate. Mack is a PG first, although this past season at Butler he was asked to step up as his team’s most prominent scoring threat, and he performed admirably during March Madness, showing poise and leadership in the clutch—excluding the NCAA finals, where his team shot an all-time tournament low.

Most importantly, Mack has the range and accuracy the Wizards are in dire need of.

Assessing Other Projections

Charles Jenkins, PG/SG

Jenkins trounces Shelvin Mack in nearly every stat category. The only reason he’s rated as a lesser option than Mack is because it seems likely that his numbers are somewhat inflated from a collegiate career at Hofstra, whose competition tends to be less than elite.

Jenkins has a complete game. He’s displayed his prowess as a scorer over and over, but what really makes him a tantalizing prospect for the Wizards is his passing ability and his superb shooting. He, like Mack, would expand the Wizards range and provide a versatile backup to John Wall.

JaJuan Johnson, PF

If Mack and Jenkins are both off the board by the time the Wizards second-round pick rolls around they may opt for JaJuan Johnson.

Johnson is very talented and meets the needs of the Wizards almost perfectly. He can shoot, and at 6’10", he’ll have little trouble competing for boards in the NBA.

His overall rebounding stats are somewhat skewed towards the low end. On the defensive boards—where the Wizards are lacking—is where Johnson shines.

On the offensive boards Johnson’s numbers are considerably less impressive, but that can be attributed to the fact that his forte as a jump shooter causes him to play nearer the perimeter than most players of his size and position.

Johnson is a formidable option for the Wizards, and if the Wizards didn’t seem so predisposed to allotting their first-round picks toward big men, or in the event that they’re unable to acquire the prospects they want earlier on, Johnson could end up being the primary option here.

18th Pick: Markieff Morris and Other Projections

Markieff Morris, PF

Often overshadowed by his twin brother, Marcus, Markieff Morris made huge strides in his game this past season at Kansas. What’s particularly impressive and salient in relation to the Wizards needs are his incipient dominance on the defensive glass, development as a spot-up shooter with three-point range and a high overall shooting percentage.

Markieff’s strengths align with the Wizards defects. He would make an excellent addition to the team.

Assessing Other Projections

Kenneth Faried, PF

It’s impossible not to admire Faried’s determination and grit. In terms of former Wizards players, his motor is very reminiscent of Michael Ruffin—a home crowd favorite, but relatively unknown throughout the rest of the league.

In comparison to other players in the draft, Faried is similar to Bismack Biyombo. A phenom as a ball-swatter and glass cleaner, but lacks grace and touch on the offensive end of the floor.

Having said that, Faried is older, smaller and less athletic than Biyombo, and he also lacks Biyombo’s mystique since scouts have had four years to observe Faried playing against Morehead State’s lackluster competition.

Faried is a viable option as the 18th pick, but given the projections for the Wizards sixth overall pick, Faried only seems to mesh well in one combination—the one where the Wizards take Jan Vesely.

Klay Thompson, SG/SF

Although Klay Thompson stands at 6’7” and is capable of playing either SG or SF, he would probably be a more valuable asset to the Wizards at SF. Thompson’s perimeter game and generally excellent spot-up shooting would open up the floor for other players and help improve the Wizards shot selection.

Thompson wouldn’t start on the Wizards, but he would be a good change of pace coming off the bench behind Rashard Lewis at SF.

Marshon Brooks, SG

Some people like Marshon Brooks for the Wizards 18th pick, and while Brooks is promising, it seems more likely that the Wizards will continue to shore up their weakness in the paint rather than duplicating the burgeoning talent of Jordan Crawford and Nick Young as high-scoring guards.

The Wizards will wait until the second round to try and pick up a guard.

Tobias Harris, SF/PF

Harris is coming off a strong but by no means stellar freshman year at Tennessee. He excels at kissing the ball off the glass from close range. His post play could prove an asset to the Wizards, but his rebounding and mediocre athleticism are insufficient to facilitate the kind of improvement that other draft options are capable of sparking.

Chris Singleton, SF/PF

Compared to Markieff Morris, Chris Singleton is more athletic and a better defender. That’s no knock to Markieff—Singleton is a better defender than almost everyone in the draft. The problem is defense sums up the majority of Singleton’s gifts on the basketball court. He’s neither a strong rebounder nor an accurate shooter.

Singleton is certainly capable of playing and even being valuable at the next level, but he is not an ideal fit for the Wizards.

6th Pick: Bismack Biyombo and Other Projections

Bismack Biyombo, PF/C

Question marks of elephantine proportions surround Bismack Biyombo, who hails from the Democratic Republic of Congo. Accordingly, interest in Biyombo has waxed and waned over the last couple of weeks (at the moment they're waning, but don't let that deter you).

At times he dazzles with his ability to defend and rebound and then slumps into nerve-driven brick-fests for scouts.

Bismack Biyombo is to a large extent an unknown quantity, and as such he is a gamble of a draft pick, but his potential lies in the areas where Washington most sorely needs it: in the paint and off the glass.

He’s exactly the sort of dominant physical presence the Wizards need inside to boost their rebounding—not to mention their record.

Despite only being 6’9”, Biyombo’s strength and athleticism should allow him to play effectively at both PF and C.

Assessing Other Projections

Jan Vesely, SF/PF

Jan Vesely fits nicely into the Wizards’ positional needs, as his athleticism and 6’11” frame should allow him to match up favorably at either SF or PF, but he does not meet their statistical needs. Vesely’s jump shot and rebounding need a kick start—the two areas the Wizards have an identified deficit in.

Nevertheless, Vesely’s versatility as a forward and the high probability of his availability when the sixth pick rolls around, make him the Wizards second-best option for this pick.

One would have to suspect that even though Vesely is not currently a rebound machine, he possesses intangibles to develop into one.

Enes Kanter, C

Many mock drafts have the Wizards taking Enes Kanter as the sixth pick, but it is more plausible that either the Jazz or the Cavaliers will select Kanter before the Wizards even get the opportunity to do so.

Jonas Valanciunas, PF/C

Jonas Valnciunas works well in the post and performs more consistently than many other big men in the draft. As a rebounder, he’s strong on the offensive end, where the Wizards are already proficient, and less talented off the defensive glass, where the Wizards need improvement.

Valanciunas might develop into a solid big man, but first he needs to add more bulk to his frame.

Derrick Williams, SF/PF

There’s almost complete agreement that the Minnesota Timberwolves will take Derrick Williams with the second overall pick.

The Wizards would love to work out a deal with the Timberwolves for the second overall pick and the opportunity to draft Derrick Williams, but such a trade would likely require the Wizards to part with JaVale McGee, which is rather like prying the sealing pitch off one sprung leak in order to patch a new one.