NBA Draft Lottery Odds 2011: Who Has the Best Shot at the No. 1 Pick?

By
J.B. Bird
(Contributor) on May 15, 2011

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CHARLOTTE, NC - MARCH 20: Kyrie Irving #1 of the Duke Blue Devils moves the ball while taking on the Michigan Wolverines during the third round of the 2011 NCAA men's basketball tournament at Time Warner Cable Arena on March 20, 2011 in Charlotte, North
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

We are now just days away from the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery.

The 14 teams that failed to make the playoffs will enter a lottery on May 17 to see which team will receive the first, second and third picks in the 2011 NBA Draft.

Teams' chances to score the top pick are greater the higher their ranking. These team rankings are based on their standings at the end of the regular season. The worse a team's record, the higher their ranking.

Each team's probability of securing the number one pick is represented by the number of 'chances' they are allocated out of one thousand. For example, the team with the worst record receives 250 out of the 1,000 chances.

As you can see, merely having the league's worst record far from guarantees you the top spot.

So, with that in mind, here are the odds for each of this year's lottery teams to grab the No. 1 slot.

14. Houston Rockets

NEW YORK - JUNE 24: Patrick Patterson stands with NBA Commisioner David Stern after being drafted fourteenth by The Houston Rockets at Madison Square Garden on June 24, 2010 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, b
Al Bello/Getty Images

5 chances, representing a 0.5% likelihood of scoring the top pick.

13. Phoenix Suns

NEW YORK - JUNE 26: NBA Commissioner David Stern shakes hands with number fifteen draft pick for the Phoenix Suns, Robin Lopez during the 2008 NBA Draft at the Wamu Theatre at Madison Square Garden June 26, 2008 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expre
Nick Laham/Getty Images

6 chances, representing a 0.6% likelihood of scoring the top pick.

12. Utah Jazz

NEW YORK - JUNE 24: Gordon Hayward stands with NBA Commisioner David Stern after being drafted ninth by The Utah Jazz at Madison Square Garden on June 24, 2010 in New York, New York. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Al Bello/Getty Images

7 chances, representing a 0.7% likelihood of scoring the top pick.

11. Golden State Warriors

NEW YORK - JUNE 24: Ekpe Udoh stands with NBA Commisioner David Stern after being drafted sixth by The Golden State warriors at Madison Square Garden on June 24, 2010 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downl
Al Bello/Getty Images

8 chances, representing a 0.8% likelihood of scoring the top pick.

10. Milwaukee Bucks

NEW YORK - JUNE 25: NBA Commissioner David Stern poses for a photograph with the tenth overall draft pick by the Milwaukee Bucks, Brandon Jennings during the 2009 NBA Draft at the Wamu Theatre at Madison Square Garden June 25, 2009 in New York City. NOT
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

11 chances, representing 1.1% likelihood of scoring the top pick.

9. Charlotte Bobcats

NEW YORK - JUNE 25: NBA Commissioner David Stern poses for a photograph with the twelfth overall draft pick by the Charlotte Bobcats, Gerald Henderson during the 2009 NBA Draft at the Wamu Theatre at Madison Square Garden June 25, 2009 in New York City.
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

17 chances, representing a 1.7% likelihood of scoring the top pick.

8. Cleveland Cavaliers (via LA Clippers)

NEW YORK - JUNE 25: NBA Commissioner David Stern poses for a photograph with the 30th overall draft pick by the Cleveland Cavaliers, Christian Eyenga during the 2009 NBA Draft at the Wamu Theatre at Madison Square Garden June 25, 2009 in New York City.
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

28 chances, representing a 2.8% likelihood of scoring the top pick.

7. Detroit Pistons

NEW YORK - JUNE 24: Gregory Monroe stands with NBA Commisioner David Stern after being drafted seventh by the Detoit Pistons at Madison Square Garden on June 24, 2010 in New York, New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that
Al Bello/Getty Images

43 chances, representing a 4.3% likelihood of scoring the top pick.

6. Utah Jazz (via New Jersey)

NEW YORK - JUNE 24: Gordon Hayward stands with NBA Commisioner David Stern after being drafted ninth by The Utah Jazz at Madison Square Garden on June 24, 2010 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading
Al Bello/Getty Images

63 chances, representing a 7.5% likelihood of scoring the top pick.

Note: the Sacramento Kings and New Jersey Nets finished with same record. The Kings won the coin toss and therefore get the higher chances.

5. Sacramento Kings

NEW YORK - JUNE 24: DeMarcus Cousins stands with NBA Commisioner David Stern after being drafted fifth by The Sacramento Kings at Madison Square Garden on June 24, 2010 in New York, New York. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Al Bello/Getty Images

88 chances, representing a 7.6% likelihood of scoring the top pick.

Note: the Sacramento Kings and New Jersey Nets finished with same record. The Kings won the coin toss and therefore get the higher chances.

4. Washington Wizards

NEW YORK - JUNE 24: John Wall of Kentucky stands with NBA Commisioner David Stern after being drafted with the first pick by the Washington Wizards at Madison Square Garden on June 24, 2010 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and
Al Bello/Getty Images

119 chances, representing a 11.9% likelihood of scoring the top pick.

3. Toronto Raptors

NEW YORK - JUNE 24: Ed Davis stands with NBA Commisioner David Stern after being drafted thirteenth by The Toronto Raptors at Madison Square Garden on June 24, 2010 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by download
Al Bello/Getty Images

156 chances, representing a 15.6% likelihood of scoring the top pick.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers

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199 chances, representing a 19.9% likelihood of scoring the top pick.

1. Minnesota Timberwolves

NEW YORK - JUNE 24: Wesley Johnson stands with NBA Commisioner David Stern after being drafted by The Minnesota Timberwolves at Madison Square Garden on June 24, 2010 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downlo
Al Bello/Getty Images

250 chances, representing a 25.0% likelihood of scoring the top pick.

Thanks!

DALLAS - APRIL 25: Guard Jason Kidd #2 of the Dallas Mavericks gives a thumbs up during a 99-90 win against the San Antonio Spurs in Game Four of the Western Conference Quarterfinals during the 2009 NBA Playoffs at American Airlines Center on April 25, 2
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

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