Why Boston Celtics Aren't 3-1 Favorites and Why New York Knicks Could Upset

The Celtics are 3-1 favorites against the Knicks in the first round of the 2011 NBA playoffs.  

In my view, this line is primarily a result of this Knicks team not having won consistently since acquiring Carmelo Anthony and, therefore, being a relative unknown quantity whereas this Celtic team are veterans and proven champions.

In my mind this line is not reflective of the reality that becomes clear when you analyze position-by-position matchups and look at key team statistical comparisons.

Lets look at the matchups:

Point Guard: Rondo is a monster and quickest PG in the game but can't shoot a lick.  Billups is bigger, shoots a higher percentage and knocks down clutch shots but can’t defend much.

Look for Toney Douglas and Jared Jeffries (Yes, I said Jeffries) to cover Rondo often and Billups to cover Allen.  Not as much of a Celtics advantage if Billups can take Rondo out of his game with his veteran savvy and his shooting and size advantage. 

Shooting Guard:  Clear advantage for Allen but he is not the Allen of old.  Fields is a critical unknown for the Knicks and, if he plays well, will give Knicks huge boost.  This is not likely, though, given his inexperience and, therefore, this is a distinct Celtics advantage.

Small Forward:  Great matchup but you have to give meaningful edge to Melo given younger age and much better ability to score and better rebounding.  Melo has 16 or 17 lead changing field goals in last two minutes of games this year—best in the NBA.  Melo should win a game at least for the Knicks if not two.  Knicks advantage. 

Power Forward: Interesting matchup with Amare a big question mark.  If he scores and gets Kevin Garnett in foul trouble he can have a monster impact.  Garnett is much better defender but doesn’t have the legs he used to. 

I would give slight edge to Knicks given how Amare has played all year and the playoffs have been his primary goal this year.  He generally backs up his words in big games and will do so again.   

Center: Obvious advantage to Celtics but without Perkins not so much.  With Perkins, Celts win one more game—at least—and that makes or breaks these series.

Bench: Douglas, Carter, Jeffries and Shawn and Shelden Williams can make a difference but Celtics have better bench particularly with Jeff Green.

Now lets look at some interesting team statistics: 

Knicks outperformed Celtics in some key fundamental statistics this past season: 

- Knicks were No. 19 rebounding team at 40.5 per game vs. Celtics at No. 29 at 38.8

- Knicks were N0. 10 in turnovers with 13.7 per game with Celtics at No. 20 with 14.6

- Knicks were No. 2 FT shooting team at ~81% vs. Celtics at 77%

- Knicks only shot slightly better from three-point line but took 12 more three-point shots per game 

Some of you may say these differences are slight but over an 82 game season they definitely indicate relative strengths and weaknesses.

One obvious and glaring distinction the other way is the Celtics only allowed 91 ppg and scored almost 97 while Knicks scored 107 and allowed 106.

Conclusion

The statistics above tell me that Knicks are much more fundamentally sound and efficient than people give them credit for but they don’t put forward consistent effort on defense and, therefore, can lose to tougher teams.  While Knicks have proven they can play defense in one-off games this year against elite sides they have not proven they can do it consistently. 

On the flip-side, given the age difference, if scores are in the 100-115 point range, I believe the Knicks gain a relative advantage.

I think it will go to a sixth game in NY and if Melo is hot the series could go either way at that point with Knicks gaining confidence every game.