NBA Free Agency 2011: Predicting the Fate of Each Team's Restricted Free Agents

Joseph FafinskiCorrespondent IApril 13, 2011

NBA Free Agency 2011: Predicting the Fate of Each Team's Restricted Free Agents

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    LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 02:  Marc Gasol #33 of the Memphis Grizzlies is defended by Pau Gasol #16 of the Los Angeles Lakers during the first quarter at Staples Center on November 2, 2010 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowle
    Jeff Gross/Getty Images

    This offseason figures to be a busy one in the NBA, and there are some pretty sought-after restricted free agents who might be available come this summer.

    One of those guys is Marc Gasol, who is pictured above. Gasol, in his third season in Memphis, will be given more money on his next offer no doubt, but will the Grizzlies match it?

    I will take a look at every team that has a restricted free agent to offer, and decide whether they are worth the money. Then I will list possible destinations and perhaps clubs who will give higher clips than the original qualifying number on June 30.

    With all that in mind, thanks for reading and I hope you enjoy!

    (Author's Note: The Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Orlando Magic, San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz have zero restricted free agents this season, and therefore are not on this list.)

Boston Celtics

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    CHICAGO, IL - APRIL 07: Jeff Green #8 of the Boston Celtics moves against Ronnie Brewer #11 of the Chicago Bulls at United Center on April 7, 2011 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bulls defeated the Celtics 97-81. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and ag
    Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

    Jeff Green was recently acquired in the blockbuster trade that sent Kendrick Perkins and his bags to Oklahoma City.

    He is Boston's only restricted free agent, and I'll bet almost anything that they didn't sign the former Georgetown Hoya just to have him for one half-season.

    He'll be signed by the C's and he'll eventually become a mainstay in the future.

    Green's possible destinations: Boston Celtics

Charlotte Bobcats

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    MIAMI, FL - APRIL 08:  Dante Cunningham #44 of the Charlotte Bobcats shoots over Mario Chalmers #15 of the Miami Heat during a game at American Airlines Arena on April 8, 2011 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, b
    Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

    Another mid-season trade, Dante Cunningham's contract is up after a half-Blazer, half-Bobcat season.

    If Charlotte is hoping to create a long-term deal for the 23-year-old Cunningham, whose latter half of the season trumps the former, they must dish him a lot of cash because of his success thus far for the Bobcats.

    With that said, I believe they're going to grab ahold of Cunningham, who has replaced Gerald Wallace, and give him a three-or-so year deal.

    Cunningham's possible destinations: Charlotte Bobcats

Denver Nuggets

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    LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 05:  Arron Afflalo #6 of the Denver Nuggets shoots over Ike Diogu #50 of the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center on January 5, 2011  in Los Angeles, California.  The Clippers won 106-93.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowled
    Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

    Arron Afflalo leads a trio of restricted free agents that the Denver Nuggets have to decide what they will do with this offseason.

    In all honesty, the all-around shooting guard could be on his way out of Denver. In fact, I can see either him or J.R. Smith being on their way out of the Rockies as soon as this offseason.

    Right now I can't say which one I think it is, but it will be hard in the future to keep the two happy and since the defensive-minded Afflalo is a free agent he might be packing his bags.

    A piece in February's blockbuster Carmelo Anthony trade, Wilson Chandler is undoubtedly going to be a large part of the Nuggets' future, and for that reason he will most likely be signed to a three or four-year deal.

    Gary Forbes has seen his role increase just barely with the departure of 'Melo, but he might be too upset with his playing time and he may take his talents elsewhere, but I doubt it. One other team that could use him is the Spurs because they could use some depth at a cheap price, and Forbes might just be the man.

    Afflalo's possible destinations: Orlando Magic, Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics

    Chandler's possible destinations: Denver Nuggets

    Forbes' possible destinations: Denver Nuggets, San Antonio Spurs

Detroit Pistons

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    ORLANDO, FL - JANUARY 24:  Rodney Stuckey #3 of the Detroit Pistons attempts a shot against Dwight Howard #12 and Jameer Nelson #14 of the Orlando Magic during the game at Amway Arena on January 24, 2011 in Orlando, Florida.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly
    Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

    Jonas Jerebko is having a solid rookie campaign in the dismal situation that is the Detroit Pistons right now.

    He is averaging 9.3 points and is doing it relatively unnoticed because the Pistons are back in "Bad Boys" mode, and causing controversy seemingly every other night.

    He will probably sign a one or two-year deal with the Pistons because he hasn't done anything to make sure he'd leave.

    On the other hand, Rodney Stuckey might be on his way out of the awful situation. Stuckey is still, at best, an average point guard in this league and the 24-year-old might find a better role playing 20 minutes a game elsewhere.

    T.J. Ford of Indiana is a free agent, so Stuckey might be suited well backing up Darren Collison 311 miles southwest of his current city.

    DaJuan Summers has only played in 21 games this season, and I don't see the Pistons taking on a chance on him with a long-term deal, so I can see a few teams desperate for forward play to give him a million or two.

    Jerebko's possible destinations: Detroit Pistons

    Stuckey's possible destinations: Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, Detroit Pistons 

    Summers' possible destinations: Milwaukee Bucks, New Jersey Nets

Golden State Warriors

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    OAKLAND, CA - JANUARY 21:  DeMarcus Cousins #15 of the Sacramento Kings defends Reggie Williams #55 of the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena on January 21, 2011 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by down
    Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

    The Golden State Warriors' only restricted free agent in 2011, Reggie Williams has to be a little upset with the role that he has been given this season in Oakland.

    It's not like he's playing bad though, so some other team will reward him with a nice two or three-season contract.

    Williams' possible destinations: New Orleans Hornets, Sacramento Kings

Houston Rockets

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    PHOENIX, AZ - JANUARY 14:  Goran Dragic #2 of the Phoenix Suns hanldes the ball during the NBA game against the Portland Trail Blazers at US Airways Center on January 14, 2011 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Suns defeated the Trail Blazers 115-111. NOTE TO USER:
    Christian Petersen/Getty Images

    You've got to think that Goran Dragic is liking this playing 20-plus minutes thing in Houston, something he never got to do as Steve Nash's backup in Phoenix.

    He's not going anywhere for a couple seasons. The Rockets will give him a million or two per season to keep him in the Lone Star State.

    Dragic's possible destinations: Houston Rockets

Los Angeles Clippers

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    BOSTON, MA - MARCH 09:  DeAndre Jordan #9 of the Los Angeles Clippers dunks the ball as Nenad Krstic #4 of the Boston Celtics defends on March 9, 2011 at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. The Los Angeles Clippers defeated the Boston Celtics 108-103.
    Elsa/Getty Images

    DeAndre Jordan, the Clippers' lone restricted free agent in 2011, isn't going anywhere, and Los Angeles' other team has made it known that he isn't.

    I expect him to sign for another two or so years to continue dominating defensively.

    Jordan's possible destinations: Los Angeles Clippers

Memphis Grizzlies

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    CHICAGO, IL - MARCH 25: Marc Gasol #33 of the Memphis Grizzlies grabs a pass under pressure from Kurt Thomas #40 of the Chicago Bulls at the United Center on March 25, 2011 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bulls defeated the Grizzlies 99-96. NOTE TO USER: User e
    Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

    This year's best center available, Marc Gasol might not be back as a member of the Grizz next season.

    Some other team will ultimately offer him more money than Memphis, and I can see him being a perfect fit and perhaps the missing piece to the New York Knicks' puzzle: a strong inside defender who has been absent all season (Amar'e doesn't count as a center).

    Hamed Haddidi hasn't had the best of seasons, playing in only 29 contests and averaging less than three points. Is Europe in his future?

    Sam Young has had a fine sophomore season in the NBA, and I can't see him leaving unless another team offers him a greater number on the sheet.

    Gasol's possible destinations: New York Knicks, Memphis Grizzlies, Houston Rockets

    Haddidi's possible destinations: D-League, Europe, Memphis Grizzlies

    Young's possible destinations: Memphis Grizzlies

Miami Heat

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    MIAMI, FL - APRIL 10:  Mario Chalmers #15 of the Miami Heat looks to pass during a game against the Boston Celtics at American Airlines Arena on April 10, 2011 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading an
    Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

    A point guard on the Heat whose playing time has diminished since the acquisition of Mike Bibby, Mario Chalmers will undoubtedly be on the move this summer, where Aaron Brooks' departure in Phoenix will leave an opening for the former Kansas Jayhawk.

    Steve Nash isn't going to play forever, and the Suns could use some much-needed help defensively in the backcourt, and Chalmers would provide just that.

    Chalmers' possible destinations: Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Lakers, Portland Trail Blazers

Milwaukee Bucks

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    MILWAUKEE, WI - JANUARY 07: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute #12 of the Milwaukee Bucks shoots against the Miami Heat at the Bradley Center on January 7, 2011 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and o
    Scott Boehm/Getty Images

    A solid 28-minute-per-night option for the Bucks, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute might be headed elsewhere but it could go either way.

    The Knicks could use a defensive backup for Carmelo, and the same goes for Michael Beasley in Minnesota.

    Chris Douglas-Roberts is a decent shooter and might be worth another year or two in Milwaukee, but he could be shipped to a team like the Raptors. If Mbah a Moute leaves, CDR stays, and vice versa.

    Mbah a Moute's possible destinations: New York Knicks, Minnesota Timberwolves, Milwaukee Bucks

    Douglas-Roberts' possible destinations: Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto Raptors

New Jersey Nets

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    NEWARK, NJ - APRIL 03:  Chris Bosh #1 of the Miami Heat pits up a basket against Brandan Wright #34 of the New Jersey Nets at the Prudential Center on April 3, 2011 in Newark, New Jersey.NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downlo
    Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

    The rookie out of Tulsa, Ben Uzoh has done little to nothing thus far in New Jersey to prove he belongs in an NBA team's 12-man rotation, so he could go just about anywhere. The Hawks might be looking at a third point guard as they only possess two.

    Brandan Wright has been playing in the footsteps of Kris Humphries all season long, and he might have to if the Nets sign him for another year or two, but like Uzoh he could go anywhere. Perhaps the Blazers could use another backup power forward for the coming years.

    Uzoh's possible destinations: Atlanta Hawks, New Jersey Nets, anywhere else

    Wright's possible destinations: New Jersey Nets, Portland Trail Blazers

New Orleans Hornets

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    CHICAGO, IL - MARCH 07: Marco Belinelli #8 of the New Orleans Hornets moves against Loul Deng #9 of the Chicago Bulls at the United Center on March 7, 2011 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bulls defeated the Hornets 85-77. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledg
    Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

    Marco Belinelli has proved he can be a marginal starter on a playoff team, and he seems to be right on the fence on whether to re-sign in the Big Easy for the 2011-12 season. The only problem is that he might ask for than the 2.3 million dollar annual salary he currently is accumulating.

    Somewhere in California, possibly teams with money like the Kings or Warriors, could be the best place for Belinelli to take his talents. Phoenix is also a viable place for the Italian.

    On the other hand, Jason Smith will most likely remain in NoLa for at least a few more seasons, as he shouldn't bump up his asking price of two million per year. If he does, they should get rid of him, and the Atlanta Hawks might be willing since they lack the seven-foot size Smith possesses.

    Belinelli's possible destinations: Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Hornets, Phoenix Suns

    Smith's possible destinations: New Orleans Hornets, Atlanta Hawks

New York Knicks

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    CHARLOTTE, NC - NOVEMBER 24:  Timofey Mozgov #25 of the New York Knicks tries to stop Derrick Brown #4 of the Charlotte Bobcats during their game at Time Warner Cable Arena on November 24, 2010 in Charlotte, North Carolina.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly a
    Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

    I believe that forward Derrick Brown doesn't have any sort of future in the Big Apple with the Knicks beyond this season.

    Someone like the 76ers might take a chance on Brown, and perhaps pay him more than the $762,195 he is currently being paid.

    Regardless, this is going to be an interesting offseason for the Knickerbockers, as they have six unrestricted free agents additionally.

    Brown's possible destinations: Philadelphia 76ers, some place that will pay him one million

Oklahoma City Thunder

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    PHOENIX, AZ - MARCH 30:  Daequan Cook #14 of the Oklahoma City Thunder puts up a shot during the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center on March 30, 2011 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Thunder defeated the Suns 116-98.   NOTE TO USER: User expre
    Christian Petersen/Getty Images

    Since James Harden and Thabo Sefolosha play the majority of minutes at shooting guard, Daequan Cook might be needed elsewhere as this offseason approaches.

    One team that salivates over outside shooting, the Minnesota Timberwolves, might take a chance on the former Buckeye. The Memphis Grizzlies might also want him to perhaps replace O.J. Mayo, who no questions asked is gone come July.

    They will, however, ask to pay him less than the $2.1 million he is currently paying for. There is no chance the Thunder hold onto this bolt.

    Cook's possible destinations: Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves

Philadelphia 76ers

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    CHICAGO, IL - MARCH 28: Derrick Rose #1 of the Chicago Bulls reaches for the ball going off of the face of Spencer Hawes #00 of the Philadelphia 76ers at the United Center on March 28, 2011 in Chicago, Illinois. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges a
    Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

    Make no mistake about it-- Spencer Hawes is in his final season in Philadelphia.

    He hasn't found a niche with the Sixers, and is not even close to being worth the approximately $3 million he is making.

    He would do fine elsewhere, perhaps in Portland where he would be paid about two-thirds of that. He would provide some good depth for their star power forward, LaMarcus Aldridge.

    On the flipside, Thaddeus Young is a very versatile player and one of the more underrated ballers in the game. He sports an 18.32 player efficiency rating, and the 22-year-old small forward is scoring better than 12 and rebounding more than 5 per game.

    He's not going anywhere.

    Hawes' possible destinations: Portland Trail Blazers

    Young's possible destinations: Philadelphia 76ers

Phoenix Suns

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    PHOENIX, AZ - MARCH 30:  Aaron Brooks #0 of the Phoenix Suns during the NBA game against the Oklahoma City Thunder at US Airways Center on March 30, 2011 in Phoenix, Arizona.  The Thunder defeated the Suns 116-98. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges
    Christian Petersen/Getty Images

    Well, the Aaron Brooks-to-Phoenix experiment isn't going the way Brooks wanted it to go thus far, and he may as well be gone now.

    Earlier I said that Mario Chalmers could be on his way to 'Zona, and I stand by that decision. Brooks is a much weaker defender, and would be suited much better instead in the frozen tundra that is Minnesota.

    He could also go to the Kings to provide Tyreke Evans some relief since Beno Udrih isn't exactly reliable.

    Utah isn't out of the equation, but if they draft Jimmer they will.

    Heck, if the Pistons do get rid of Stuckey, they'll be looking for a starter.

    Brooks' possible destinations: Minnesota Timberwolves, Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz, Detroit Pistons

Portland Trail Blazers

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    CHICAGO - NOVEMBER 01: Greg Oden #52 of the Portland Trail Blazers watches from the bench as his teammates take on the Chicago Bulls at the United Center on November 1, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bulls defeated the Trail Blazers 110-98. NOTE TO USER:
    Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

    Patty Mills might head to greener pastures, but at the same time he could stay in Portland. I say the Blazers will give him another year or two to develop before shipping him off. He can contribute and be a solid backup (keyword: backup).

    I don't think anyone will ultimately match the Trail Blazers' sheet on him.

    Greg Oden, on the other hand, is perhaps the most oft-injured player in recent history. He needs to have one more full season under his belt to stay in Portland, but he'll most likely be gone like a freight train since there is no chance they give him a big opening number.

    Toronto is is need of a center since Andrea Bargnani will most likely shift his position to power or small forward. Minnesota could use him, depending on what they do with Darko Milicic and whether they need a center.

    The perfect fit, however, could be either with the Charlotte Bobcats, who haven't had a real center since Emeka Okafor departed two seasons ago; or as a Golden State Warrior, where Andris Biedrins clearly isn't center-caliber anymore.

    Oden, who was a highly sought after seven-footer out of Ohio State, has never officially panned out in the NBA, but those teams listed previously would probably give him a chance over their current guys (especially the Warriors, since they want to dump Biedrins).

    Once again, I leave the Blazers wondering what would have been had they drafted Kevin Durant.

    Mills' possible destinations: Portland Trail Blazers (although they could trade him)

    Oden's possible destinations: Toronto Raptors, Charlotte Bobcats, Minnesota Timberwolves, Golden State Warriors

Sacramento Kings

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    CHICAGO, IL - MARCH 21: Marcus Thornton #23 of the Sacramento Kings moves against the Chicago Bulls at the United Center on March 21, 2011 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bulls defeated the Kings 132-92. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that
    Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

    I don't see much incentive to the Sacramento Kings keeping either Pooh Jeter, 27, or Darnell Jackson, 25, but they might have to retain them for bench help.

    Otherwise, I could see the 5'11" Jeter, a rookie, taking his talents to Charlotte for the time being, while everyone in that area awaits to see if Chris Paul is for real. It might be good for Winnie, er, I mean, Jeter, to get mentored by D.J. Augustin and CP3 if he joins the party in 2012.

    However, the real key here is Marcus Thornton. Do the Kings want to pursue a defender like Shane Battier rather than Thornton?

    Most likely they won't, but the 6'4" shooting guard could be a good replacement shooting guard for O.J. Mayo in Memphis.

    Jackson's possible destinations: Sacramento Kings

    Jeter's possible destinations: Charlotte Bobcats, Sacramento Kings

    Thornton's possible destinations: Sacramento Kings, Memphis Grizzlies

Toronto Raptors

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    LOS ANGELES - NOVEMBER 5:  Sonny Weims #24 of the Toronto Raptors controls the ball against Steve Blake #5 of the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on November 5, 2010 in Los Angeles, California.   NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees t
    Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

    Along with three unrestricted free agents, the Raptors have three more restricted to deal with.

    First off is Joey Dorsey, a power forward from John Calipari's Memphis days, and he will be most likely looking at the league's minimum cost, and at that price not many teams will ignore it. Perhaps the Oklahoma City Thunder or the Indiana Pacers will take a chance on him and match the sheet.

    Next is shooting guard Sonny Weems, who has seemingly found a niche above the border, playing in half of the Raps' possible minutes and averaging better than nine points per contest. He'd be a solid one-to-two-year addition at about a million dollar per season.

    Lastly, there's Julian Wright, a 6'8" small forward who has tremendously underperformed at $3 million per season. There is no chance they retain his rights, and it wouldn't shock me if nobody did.

    Looks like it's off to the D-League for yeh, Julian!

    This team is officially in rebuilding mode, so they could lose two of the three here and I wouldn't be surprised.

    Dorsey's possible destinations: Indiana Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Toronto Raptors

    Weems' possible destinations: Toronto Raptors

    Wright's possible destinations: Anywhere, possibly in the D-League

Washington Wizards

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    WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 14: Nick Young #1 of the Washington Wizards puts up a shot in front of Serge Ibaka #9 of the Oklahoma City Thunder during the first half at the Verizon Center on March 14, 2011 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowl
    Rob Carr/Getty Images

    The Washington Wizards have a league-high five restricted free agents in which they need to deal with.

    Only one of these five, Nick Young, will be guaranteed a spot on the roster next season. I'm going to guess that the Wizards will give him a three or four-year deal to stay happy at the starting shooting guard position.

    Three others; Cartier Martin, Mustafa Shakur, and Hamadi Ndiaye, will most likely be looming in free agency this summer since none of them are very prized. Martin has the best chance to remain with the team, however, since he is fairly productive (4.0 points, 1.3 rebounds) for his price ($854,359), but they might have to bump his salary up a bit.

    Yi Jianlian would stay in Washington if he weren't so expensive, and maybe if he cuts his price by 60 percent or so he'd be a sure thing on another roster.

    The Detroit Pistons might take a chance at Jianlian if the Wizards don't get the 23-year-old (doesn't it seem he's older than that?) for less than two million or so. The Hawks and the Knicks could use his services for depth, and you know that the Knicks would whip out a lot of money on the seven-foot big from China.

    Young's possible destinations: Washington Wizards

    Martin's possible destinations: Washington Wizards

    Shakur's possible destinations: Washington Wizards (although highly unlikely), free agency, Europe

    Ndiaye's possible destinations: Most likely free agency

    Jianlian's possible destinations: Detroit Pistons, Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards, New York Knicks