NBA Playoff Predictions: Keys for Every Team to Make a Deep Playoff Run
The NBA's regular season is well and good, but the postseason is where legacies are formed and champions are made.
Going 82-0 in the regular season is only good for a record. But taking teams on in seven game series and coming out on top is good for conference and league championships.
Just ask the Boston Celtics. As long as they're in the top four in the Eastern Conference, getting them home court advantage for at least the first round, they're content to rest their stars in the regular season.
But what does each team need to do to make a deep playoff run? Squads are still picking up free agents and working out the kinks post-trade deadline.
Here is what each contending team needs to do to make its mark in the playoffs.
Eastern Conference Fringe Teams
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Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are already 3.5 games out of the eighth spot in the East. Michael Redd could be back from knee surgery in a couple of weeks, but what kind of shape will he be in? He'll give a boost, but will only have about 10 games to do it in.
Charlotte Bobcats
Trading away Gerald Wallace doesn't help this team get into the playoffs. It was a wise move by Michael Jordan and the rest of the front office when looking to the future, but that doesn't appease fans looking for a playoff series in the now.
If Charlotte sneaks in, it will because Joel Przybilla is suddenly comfortable on his surgically repaired knee and plays out of his mind.
Western Conference Fringe Teams
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Houston Rockets
Hope is dwindling in Houston as the Rockets are now 3.5 games out of the final playoff spot, with two teams ahead of them fighting for the same eighth seed. It's just not going to happen.
Utah Jazz
Could the Jazz post their first losing season since 1982-83? Probably not. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team surge into the playoffs. The culture has changed and there is still time to recover. But a deep playoff run is unlikely since Utah is 0-5 against San Antonio and Dallas on the season.
Phoenix Suns
This is a scary team to draw in the first round of the playoffs—if they can make it. With hot three-point shooting, Phoenix can put a scare into any team in the league. If Channing Frye, Jared Dudley, Michael Pietrus get hot, they can steal a couple of games to make a series interesting.
Eastern Conference 8th Seed: Indiana Pacers
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The Pacers are 9-6 since the start of February. They're looking like a respectable basketball team with star Danny Granger leading the way.
The bad news for Indiana is that Philadelphia doesn't look like it's going to give up the seventh spot, meaning Indiana will likely meet Boston in the first round of the playoffs. Indiana is 0-2 against the Celtics. At least they beat the Heat in Miami, even if it was in November.
If Indiana can provide a steady secondary scorer for Granger, they can make things interesting. It's not often that Granger isn't the team's leading scorer.
Western Conference 8th Seed: Memphis Grizzles
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Plain and simple, Memphis needs team doctors to be wrong. Rudy Gay is expected to miss maybe the rest of the season with his shoulder injury. Without him, it's hard to the Grizzlies making a run in the playoffs, let alone hold off Phoenix and Utah for the eighth seed.
Zach Randolph would need to engage his beast mode to beat either San Antonio or Dallas. Randolph has averaged 23 points and 16 points against the Spurs in three games this season, and 23 points and 14.5 rebounds against Dallas in two games.
Memphis is 1-1 against Dallas and 1-2 against San Antonio with Randolph in the lineup. The Grizz are 2-1 against Dallas with Gay and haven't played the Spurs with him.
Eastern Conference 7th Seed: Philadelphia 76ers
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Philadelphia has its season heading in the right direction, having won seven of its last 10. The 76ers are 0-4 against Boston and Miami this season, but haven't played either since Dec. 22.
Elton Brand already was playing well against Boston, scoring 14.5 points per game on 55.6 percent shooting and grabbing 13 rebounds per game in their first two meetings with Kendrick Perkins sidelined. Now that Perkins is traded away, the paint should be that much more open for Brand to operate in.
Western Conference 7th Seed: New Orleans Hornets
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New Orleans has some issues.
Having lost 10 of their last 13, the Hornets need to get things turned around in a hurry before they play themselves out of the playoffs. They've lost to New Jersey (pre-Deron Williams), Minnesota and Toronto in that stretch. Anarchy!
New Orleans is 4-9 against the West's four best teams (San Antonio, Dallas, Los Angeles Lakers and Oklahoma City). But their concerns are fast turning to just the Spurs and Mavericks.
Picking up Carl Landry to add depth to the front court defense should help out. But is it enough? Not likely.
Eastern Conference 6th Seed: New York Knicks
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The Eastern Conference has a new contender. I know, it's premature to put New York into the discussion. They're only 3-2 since the Carmelo Anthony trade, but you've got to love that roster.
They still have more than four weeks to figure out their new teammates. That's plenty of time for former champion Chauncey Billups to make an impact.
New York might be better off struggling down the stretch and playing into the seventh seed. Atlanta would be tough to reach in the sixth spot. If Chicago holds at third, I don't like that matchup for the Knicks. They'd fare better against Miami.
Western Conference 6th Seed: Portland Trailblazers
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Portland needs to do whatever possible to get home court advantage. It doesn't look likely with both Denver and Oklahoma City in the way. The Trailblazers are four games behind the Thunder.
Portland is 20-10 at home this season and just 14-17 on the road.
Brandon Roy is back—albeit in a limited role—and Gerald Wallace has been added to the rotation. This team has overachieved all season long and is now reaping the benefits.
Eastern Conference 5th Seed: Atlanta Hawks
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Is it fair to say that any team seeded fifth through eighth advancing to the second round has made a deep run? After all, they are first-round underdogs.
If so, Atlanta will make a deep run. I love their matchup with Orlando. The Hawks acquired Kirk Hinrich to improve their point guard defense with the East boasting such point men as Rajon Rondo and Derrick Rose.
The Magic's Jameer Nelson is a step down from those players. Hinrich should be able to stay in front of him for most of a playoff series. Dwight Howard will pose his problems, but Atlanta is 2-1 against Orlando this season.
Western Conference 5th Seed: Denver Nuggets
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It's going to be hard enough for Denver to hold off Portland for the fifth seed in the West. But do the Nuggets want to? With the current standings, the Nuggets would draw Oklahoma City in the in the first round, against whom they are 1-1 on the year, and presumably, San Antonio in the second round. Denver is 0-3 against the Spurs.
However in the sixth seed, Denver would be privy to a different side of the Western Conference bracket, taking on the Lakers first—against whom they are 1-1 on the year—and presumably Dallas in the second round. The Nuggets are 2-1 against the Mavericks. Sounds a bit better doesn't it?
Home court advantage in the first round is a long shot with the Thunder continuing to create space in the Northwest race. Maybe its time for some addition by subtraction strategy.
Eastern Conference 4th Seed: Orlando Magic
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Gilbert Arenas has been a flop. Trading away Marcin Gortat was a mistake that left Dwight Howard with no help in the post. It's getting harder and harder to believe in this team.
Orlando will not make a deep run, if it makes a run at all.
Atlanta matches up well against the Magic and may even gain home court advantage by the end of the year. Only two games separate the two in the standings.
Even if the Magic make it past the Hawks, can they make it past the Celtics? Yeah, and the NBA will conduct a poll to determine the fans' favorite players with LeBron James and Kobe Bryant tying for the most votes.
Western Conference 4th Seed: Oklahoma City Thunder
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Oh yeah, the Thunder are going to make a deep run. They're my pick to reach the NBA Finals out of the Western Conference. They are the one team in the NBA that had a need pre-trade deadline keeping them from being a true contender that successfully addressed that need.
Will it be Denver or Portland for Oklahoma City's first-round opponent? No matter. The Thunder are 3-1 against those teams with the only loss coming by five points at Denver. Home court advantage is nice.
The second round will probably bring San Antonio to face the Thunder. True, the Thunder are 0-3 against the Spurs this season, but all of those games were played without Kendrick Perkins and Nazr Mohammed. Oklahoma City is suddenly on of the most physical defensive teams in the paint in the NBA.
Perkins, Mohammed, Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison form a formidable lineup that San Antonio can't match up with.
Eastern Conference 3rd Seed: Chicago Bulls
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There are three teams in the NBA that I don't make the Chicago Bulls a favorite over in a seven-game series: Boston, San Antonio and Oklahoma City. Everyone else is toast.
That includes the Knicks, the Bulls' likely first-round opponent. Miami will be a tough test in the second round, but Derrick Rose will eat Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers for a light in-game snack. The Heat don't have the size to match up with Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer.
I see the Bulls making it to the Eastern Conference finals to give Boston all it can handle.
Western Conference 3rd Seed: Los Angeles Lakers
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Los Angeles goes 10-5 in November and are title favorites. They go 10-5 in December and remain one of the favorites. They go 10-5 in January and remain in the title discussion. Then, they go 9-4 in February and mass hysteria sets in.
Ron Artest wants to be traded, then he doesn't. The Lakers are trading for Carmelo Anthony, then they aren't. Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson are mouthing off to the media. (Although that's kind of normal.)
Let's all calm down. Sure, they're kind of old. I agree, their defense could use some help. But this is still the two-time defending champions. I guess when the bar is set that high, it's tough to please.
And they won't. The Lakers will get out of the first-round and maybe even the second. But San Antonio or Oklahoma City should put their title hopes to bed.
The Lakers need to get younger and can't do that anymore with the trade deadline passed.
Eastern Conference 2nd Seed: Miami Heat
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As fun as the Miami Heat's free-for-all is to watch, it's not going to hold up in the playoffs. It's nearly impossible to be ready for Dwyane Wade and LeBron James' athleticism with one or no days to do so.
But when a team like Boston or Chicago or even New York has time to prepare, the Heat had better be prepared themselves.
James is the best player in the NBA. Dwyane Wade is in the top five. But the Heat aren't in the top-five in the NBA in terms of title hopes.
Miami needs to turn back the hands of time and put a bigger effort into signing Troy Murphy and let Mike Bibby look for a different team.
Western Conference 2nd Seed: Dallas Mavericks
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Dallas holds one giant piece of evidence that shows why this team is a legitimate title contender: Identical 22-8 home and road records.
When a team can get it done in your house just as well as they can in their own, it is an opponent to take seriously.
The Mavericks are 1-0 against the Lakers and 2-1 against the Thunder, although those were the pre-trade deadline Thunder. San Antonio holds a 2-1 advantage over Dallas.
Dirk Nowitzki needs to develop a killer instinct that he lacked in his 2006 NBA Finals appearance. This may be the most complete team that the Big German has had to work with. Saddle up, Dirk. It's your team to take beyond expectation.
Eastern Conference No. 1 Seed: Boston Celtics
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Before the Celtics went and got all crazy at the trade deadline, they were the prohibitive title favorites. Now, it's not that clear.
We'll have to see how Nenad Krstic, Jeff Green and Troy Murphy will the shoes of Kendrick Perkins and Semih Erden. Shaquille O'Neal and Jermaine O'Neal are both expected to return at some point, but can the front court that Boston has be as physical and fluid offensively as the team needs?
The Celtics may have a ton of big men, but they can't all play at the same time.
Boston is still one of the two or three best teams in the league. Boston vs. Chicago in the Eastern Conference Finals would be an instant classic, seven-game slug fest.
Western Conference No. 1 Seed: San Antonio Spurs
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Do you trust them?
It's tough to, despite the 50-11 record. But San Antonio is comfortable to let everyone else naysay about their title chances, claim they don't have enough size and so on. Greg Popovich has a plan for his team.
That plan involves a surge in Tim Duncan's minutes. After averaging a career low in minutes at 28.8 per game in the regular season, Duncan could easily play 10 more minutes per game in the playoffs.
That would go a long way to solving the Spurs' big man questions, wouldn't it?
I trust San Antonio against the Lakers and the Mavericks. But in order to play either of them, then will likely need to beat the Thunder, which is a taller task.
