Kevin Durant, Team USA Vs. World: Round-by-Round Analysis of Our Shot at Gold
To say that Kevin Durant and Team USA were inconsistent during pool play at the FIBA World Championships would be something of an understatement.
Sure, the spotless record (five wins, no losses) and substantial average margin of victory (25 points per game in favor of the US) looks nice. But, as tends to be the case in the game of basketball, statistics don't tell the whole story.
In just about every game, the Yanks have lollygagged through the first two or three quarters before finally combining effort with superior collective talent to put away substandard competition.
Case in point: Tunisia, regarded as the worst team in the competition (they lost to Iran), was within four points of Team USA part way through the third quarter. It took America's bench, led by the explosive Eric Gordon and the hustling Kevin Love, to widen the gap and put away its North African antagonists.
Coach K's crew employed the same tactic against a well-oiled and NBA-talented Brazil squad, but nearly ceded victory on end-game free throws.
And while the Red, White, and Blue has managed to keep its perfect record intact despite turnovers and inconsistent effort, advancing through the knock-out stages of the competition will take a lot more than overwhelming athletic ability and a top-notch pedigree.
Make no mistake about it: The US has an excellent chance–as good as any other team–to add FIBA gold to the national trophy case a week from Sunday.
The question remains, will this young and precocious group of international neophytes put two and two together on the court?
And, more importantly, will that be enough against the competition Derrick Rose and his ballin' buddies are likely to face?
Here's a breakdown of Team USA's chances in each round of the knockout stage.
Eighth Finals: Angola-Ing for an Easy Victory
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There's no such thing as a guaranteed win in the knock-out stages of the FIBA World Championships.
But Team USA's matchup with Angola is about as close as anyone can get.
No disrespect to Angola, which advanced by way of victories over Jordan plus Germany and is considered one of the best teams to ever come out of Africa.
However, the Angolans' lack of size, highlighted by the modest 6'7" stature of starting center and team captain Joaquim Gomes, will likely allow the Americans to push the pace as they have so effectively done with their opponents exploiting the team's weakness inside.
Not much to say, other than that this one is going to be a blow-out. Expect Team USA to win by at least 20 points, if not 30 or 40.
Quarterfinals: Ruskies or Kiwis
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Assuming the US tramples Angola in Round 1, the competition in Round 2 should be a bit more challenging, though not enough to render the Americans as underdogs by any means.
On the one hand is Russia, a team that went 4-1 in pool play, but barely made the World Championships at all (it needed a wild-card berth to get in). Without the services of Utah's Andrei Kirilenko, the Russians will rely on former NBA first-round draft pick Viktor Khryapa, ex-Kansas Jayhawks center Sasha Kaun, and New York Knicks rookie Timofey Mozgov to pull the team through to victory.
Russia's strength on the inside could very well be a nightmare for the US, whose biggest weakness is interior defense. The Russians may also be well-served by their rich basketball tradition, including the controversial gold medal game against the Americans at the 1972 Olympics in Munich, Germany.
Of course, it's no guarantee Team USA will face Russia in the quarterfinals. The ballers from Siberia will have to get by New Zealand, which went 3-2 in the opening round robin. The "Tall Blacks" are led by former Wisconsin Badger Kirk Penney, a 6'5" shooting guard who has played for the national team since its appearance in the semifinals of the World Championships in 2002 in Indianapolis.
Though Russia should advance out of this game, don't discount the Oceania champs' smaller, sharp-shooting lineup.
That being said, Team USA should be heavily favored against either of these teams, with Russia presenting a bit more of a challenge due to its interior mismatch potential.
Semifinals: Dont Cry For Me, Argentina
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Should Team USA make it into FIBA's Final Four, it will likely face its toughest test of the entire tournament.
Argentina ranks as one of the co-favorites to win the tournament, with a No. 1 world ranking (according to FIBA) as further evidence as its status as a team to beat.
Even without NBA All Star and San Antonio Spurs cornerstone Manu Ginobili, the Argentines still sport one of the most consistent and talented squads in the world. The Houston Rockets' Luis Scola leads the way, with tournament averages of 29 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. Following close behind are Carlos Delfino of the Milwaukee Bucks and Fabricio Oberto, formerly of the Spurs but now a member of the Washington Wizards.
These three highlight an incredibly experienced roster, filled with players who guided Argentina to Olympic gold in 2004 and bronze in 2008.
That being said, getting to the semfinals will be anything but a cakewalk for Argentina, with a first-round game against Brazil and a potential quarterfinal match against either China, led by the New Jersey Nets' Yi Jianlian, or undefeated Lithuania.
If a Team USA-Argentina matchup does materialize, expect the Argentines to get the ball inside early and often to exploit their huge advantage in the paint over the Americans.
This one should be a doozy, to say the least, with each team having an excellent shot at advancing to the final round.
Finals: Turkish Delight, or Mid-East Mayhem?
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Coming into the tournament, most observers expected Spain to assert itself as a world basketball power just as it did with its silver medal showing at the 2008 Olympics and its most recent European championship.
Even without Los Angeles Lakers and All-World forward Pau Gasol, Spain still boasted the likes of Ricky Rubio, Rudy Fernandez, Marc Gasol, Juan Carlos Javarro, and Jorge Garbajosa—all of whom are NBA-caliber players—on a roster ripe with internationally experienced talent.
That being said, the Spaniards haven't exactly blown away the competition or shown that they're ready to take home the gold (or even silver, for that matter), not with losses to France and Lithuania in group play.
Of course, the knockout rounds are a different story, but most pundits have Turkey pegged to emerge from the top half of the bracket.
The Turks sport their own bevy of NBA talent, led by league veteran Hedo Turkoglu and the Bucks' Ersan Ilyasova (Turkey's leading scorer and rebounder), and supported by NBA newbies Semih Erden (Boston Celtics) and Omer Asik (Chicago Bulls).
Supposing Turkey makes it through to the finals, it'll have the home-court advantage in Istanbul against Team USA, along with plenty of size to overwhelm America's slim interior.
As is the case with all of its games, Team USA will have a serious athletic advantage over whichever it plays, should it make the gold medal game.
If the opponent is Spain, expect a close game akin to the 86-85 decision the Americans came away with against the Spaniards in Madrid before the World Championships.
Should Turkey find itself playing for the top prize at home, it will pose a serious threat to Team USA's title hopes, with its size and versatility rivaling anything the Americans have to offer outside of Kevin Durant.
Is Winning Gold Really That Important?
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So after all that, why should Team USA's players and fans care if this squad comes away with gold?
Well, for one, a first-place finish would guarantee the Americans a spot in the 2012 London Olympics. Anything else, and Team USA will have to plays its way into field at next summer's FIBA Americas Championship in Argentina.
On another level, bringing home the gold would give this young and inexperienced group of Americans a huge confidence boost when they return from Turkey. A number of these guys, namely Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose, will be playing on the national team in the next Olympics. As such, a gold medal would certainly do wonders for those guys when they have to work themselves into the mix with the likes of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Paul.
Ultimately, though, any meaningful discussion of Team USA bringing home the top prize from Istanbul will have to wait until Coach K guides these kids through at least a game or two in the knockout round.
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