Should Lakers Fans Root for the Miami Heat?

With the recent signing of Shaquille O'Neal to the Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers fans should be wondering whether the Celtics are now poised to be the Lakers' biggest potential challenge in the 2011 NBA Finals, and whether they should be rooting for the Miami Heat instead of the Celtics to prevail in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Up until Shaq agreed to play for the Celtics as a back-up center this week, it had been widely considered by fans in Lakerdom that the Miami Heat would offer the biggest challenge to the Lakers in an hypothetical match-up in the NBA Finals next June.  With a trio of superstars in LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, along with a solid supporting cast of role players including Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Eddie House and Carlos Arroyo, this new "super team" had taken on the mantle as the "team to beat" in the Eastern Conference.

However, now with the recruiting of Shaq to the Celtics along with the earlier signing of Jermaine O'Neal, all that may have changed. 

For starters, the team chemistry of the Miami Heat has yet to be tested. Despite having three "superstars" on the team, the Miami Heat have not played a single game in the NBA. Coupled with a relatively inexperienced coach in Erik Spoelstra, who has lead the team for only two years and has never taken the team past the first round of the playoffs, there are many legitimate questions as to how well this new Miami Heat team can gel together and how quickly.  Now there is no question that the team has enough talent on its roster to make a deep playoff run, and may well do so in the years to come, but whether they can manage enough chemistry and understanding of each other's games in their first year together remains unknown.

The Boston Celtics, on the other hand, have proven to possess enough talent and team chemistry to win the NBA Championship.  Despite only acquiring Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the 2007-08 season to play alongside their superstar, Paul Pierce, the team went on to win the NBA Championship that same year.  Rebounding from injuries to Kevin Garnett in the 2008-09 season, the Celtics again reached the NBA Finals in 2010, losing in Game 7 against the Lakers on the road, and without their injured starting center, Kendrick Perkins.

The injury to Perkins, suffered in the first quarter of Game 6, was significant because the Celtics were leading the series, 3-2, coming off from back-to-back wins in Boston in Games 4 and 5.  A victory in Game 6 would have meant winning the Finals.  With Perkins going down midway through the first quarter, the Celtics became hopelessly mismatched and unprepared in the low-post for the remainder of the game, losing by 22 points.

In Game 7, having a couple of days to make adjustments, the Celtics started the game off strongly with Rasheed Wallace taking over the starting center duties from Perkins, and the Celtics led the game by nine points after the first quarter and six points going into half-time.  In the second-half, however, Wallace began experiencing cramps which limited his ability on the floor, and the Celtics lead was trimmed to 4 points by the end of the third quarter.  Already without their starting center and compounded by Wallace's inability to play, the Celtics' big men were unable to match the Lakers' front-line of Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and an injury-hampered Andrew Bynum in the second half, resulting in a 4 point loss.

Now in the same scenario, if the Celtics had either Shaq or Jermaine O'Neal on the team, instead of the rarely-used Shelden Williams, it could be argued that the outcome of Game 7, and perhaps even Game 6, might have been different.  In Game 7, the Celtics were able to build a solid lead going into the second half, until Wallace began experiencing cramps in the third quarter.  If either Shaq or Jermaine O'Neal was available to substitute for Wallace, which would have also reduced Kevin Garnett's minutes and allowed for more quality production from their starting power forward, the Celtics might not have experienced their scoring drought in the fourth quarter, which largely contributed to their loss. 

Fast forward to June 2011, and if both the Lakers and the Celtics reach the Finals again, the match-up becomes much more difficult for the Lakers.  One of the main strengths and advantages of the Lakers is the size and length of their big men.  With starters Gasol and Bynum, and Odom coming off the bench, the Lakers' front-line is a nightmare match-up for most teams in the league.  With the newly re-vamped Celtics, however, they pose less of a problem.  Having starters Garnett and Perkins, and Glen Davis, Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal coming off the bench, even with the loss of the newly retired Wallace, the Celtics possess a front-line that arguably matches, if not exceeds, the Lakers'.

Lakers fans can take comfort that Bynum recently had successful arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, which had limited him in both minutes and contributions during the 2010 playoffs.  However, questions still remain whether Bynum will be able to make it through the season without missing a significant number of games, which he has done the past three seasons.  This recent surgery is also his second major knee surgery in three years, the previous one being on his left knee in 2008.  If Bynum re-injures one of those knees during the regular season, whether he will be able to recuperate in time for the playoffs, or miss them completely like he did in 2008, will be a large factor in the Lakers' success in the upcoming post-season.

Even if Bynum is 100% healthy for the 2011 playoffs, the Celtics, with their newly revamped front line, will offer a bigger challenge to the Lakers in the Finals than they did this year.  And since the Celtics lost by only 4 points in Game 7 and on the road, it is not unlikely that a meeting between these two teams in the Finals next year would result in a victory for the Celtics, especially if they are able to secure home-court advantage like they did in 2008.

The Miami Heat, however, seem to be more evenly matched against the Lakers, with the Lakers having a slight advantage, especially with a healthy Bynum. 

Dwyane Wade is a superstar in this league, but his contributions will be negated by those of Kobe Bryant.  Chris Bosh is also an elite player in the NBA, but Pau Gasol is considered as good or better, particularly in passing and defense, which will improve the contributions of his teammates as well.  LeBron James has no equal on the Lakers, but Ron Artest has proven himself to be a good defender in the post-season, and will likely be able to contain James to around 25 points a game, while scoring around 10-12 points per game himself. 

It seems to be a toss-up between the benches of both teams, though the core of the Lakers' bench have played together for many seasons, so it would not be unlikely that the Lakers' bench would outperform the Heat's.  The Lakers have also added a solid defender to their reserves in Matt Barnes, who can help guard either James or Wade. 

The big "X Factor" for the series, then, seems to be Bynum. If Bynum is healthy, the Heat do not have anyone on their team that can match up with him, particularly on defense.  Coupled together with Gasol, it seems the Lakers would have the advantage offensively and defensively in the low-post, which may be the determining factor in the series.

While die-hard Lakers fans might feel that their team will prevail in the NBA Finals no matter who the opponent is, it seems the Lakers' chances for winning their 17th title improve if their opponent is the Miami Heat and not the Boston Celtics.  And as a Lakers fan, I know I will be rooting for the Miami Heat to come out on top as Eastern Conference Champions in the 2011 NBA Playoffs.

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And if he can stay healthy, "Is Andrew Bynum The Lakers' Future Franchise Player?"