Is the Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh Deal Good for the NBA?

The recent coordinated decision of Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh to all play for the Miami Heat (the deal) raises several questions.  Perhaps most importantly, what are the implications of the deal for the future of the NBA? Will the NBA still be a competitive league?  Was it competitive before the deal?  By competitive, I mean how championships and appearances in the championship game/series are distributed.   

Both Magic Johnson[1] and Michael Jordan[2] have spoken out against Lebron's move to join Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh in Miami.  And there is good reason for the NBA to be concerned about this move. 

As I show below, compared to the NFL and MLB, the NBA has been the least competitive league in the forty-four years since the Super Bowl era began,[3] at least in terms how championships and appearances in the championship game/series are distributed.    

The NBA Championship Series

Twenty-one teams out of the thirty teams have appeared in the NBA Championship Series and fourteen different teams have won at least one championship since the 1966–1967 season.

But the distribution of these championships is skewed: The Los Angeles Lakers have appeared in twenty-one Championship Series in the last forty-four years, while the Boston Celtics have appeared in eleven championship series!

Twenty-five of the forty-four championships have been won by just three franchises: the Lakers (11), the Celtics (8), and the Chicago Bulls (6). Detroit (4) and San Antonio (3) are the other cities that have won more than two championships in this period. Thus 32 of the 44 championships (approximately 73%) have been won by just five franchises! With the exception of San Antonio, large cities dominate.

The NFL - Super Bowl

Three teams, Pittsburgh (6), San Francisco (5), and Dallas (5), account for sixteen out of the forty-four Super Bowl Championships. The “big three” have a combined 16–4 record in the Super Bowl. Of those four losses, three games matched up Pittsburgh against Dallas, with Pittsburgh winning twice.

The big three are an incredible 13–1 in Super Bowl games against teams outside of the group.  That loss occurred when the Baltimore Colts beat Dallas 16–13 in Super Bowl V. That was the first appearance of one of the big three in the Super Bowl. Since then, the big three are 13–0 against teams outside of their club.

Despite the big three, there is much more parity in the NFL than in the NBA. No other franchise has won more than three Super Bowl championships. Further, twenty-eight of the league’s thirty-two teams have appeared in the Super Bowl and eighteen different teams have won Super Bowl Championships. Only four teams - the Cleveland Browns, the Detroit Lions, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Houston Texans - have not appeared in the Super Bowl, and two of the teams are relatively new franchises.

MLB – The World Series

In the case of major league baseball, it is no surprise that the New York Yankees have both the most wins (7) and the most appearances (11) in the World Series during the last forty-three years.[4] With the New York Mets 2–2 record in the World Series, New York teams are 9–7 in the World Series. (The 2000 “subway” series featured both New York teams.) 

With the exception of the Yankees, no other team has won more than four championships in that period. And twenty-five teams out of thirty teams have played in the World Series in the last forty-three years; nineteen teams have won the World Series at least once during this period. Of course, the recent dominance of the Yankees (7 championship appearances and 5 championships in the last 14 years) is a concern.  Nevertheless, despite the Yankees success, there is more parity in MLB than in the NBA.

What does this all mean?  The differences in the distribution of championships and championship appearances among the leagues are due to many factors - and that would be an interesting topic for another article...

The important point is that the league with the least competitive distribution of championships – the NBA - has probably become even less competitive.  It is true that one team -- Miami – became more competitive, but this move will likely make the league less competitive as a whole. And this deal might lead to other deals as well, making it even more difficult for small market franchises to succeed.

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[1] See 'Magic Johnson is also not impressed with LeBron James, by Trey Kerby, July 21, 2010, available at http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Magic-Johnson-is-also-not-impressed-with-LeBron-?urn=nba-257330.

[2] See 'Jordan and Barkley aren't impressed with LeBron,' by Trey Kerby, July 19, 2010, available at http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Jordan-and-Barkley-aren-t-impressed-with-LeBron?urn=nba-256794.

[3]  It doesn't make sense to go further back, since many of the franchises didn't exist before this period.  

[4]  In 1994, there was no World Series because of a strike by the Major League Baseball Players Association that eliminated the post-season.