LeBron James Free Agency Odds
Update 6-29-10: The Bulls are now -300, and the Heat are +200 and Cleveland is +200.
As someone raised in Las Vegas—I'd go with those odds over anything. Anyone who wants to bet on Chicago for LeBron or Bosh has to bet $500 just to win $100.
Anyone who thinks hes going to the Cavaliers or Heat, could bet $100 and win $350 if he does so.
All of the rumor and speculation regarding where the elite free agents will end up is relatively meaningless compared to this. Reporters have everything to gain from posting NBA Free Agency rumors and not much to lose if their "scoop" or unsubstantiated source ends up being wrong.
NBA Executives are certainly in-the-know, but are often willing to mislead members of the press to gain strategic advantages and manipulate trades and free agency.
Evidenced by this article.
On the other hand, if the sports book is wrong, they could lose millions of dollars. They are risking themselves where it counts the most—their wallets.
These sports books are made to make money —so, naturally the odds don't add up to 100%. They add up to 196%.
But, if we pretended these odds were indicative of LeBron's thoughts at the moment , here is what we can come up with for percent odds for each team:
I think this is a (fairly) realistic outlook. Personally I wouldn't give the Knicks, Nets or Clippers nearly as much of a chance.
It will be refreshing once July 1st actually comes and goes. The speculation will end, and the real reporting will begin. Hopefully we won't have to wait too long after that date to know for sure where he ends up. Millions of fans, athletes, reporters, and journalists are dying to know.
P.S. - Anyone who thinks LeBron doesn't sign in Chicago because of MJ's shadow should read this.
*Credit goes to Bill Simmons tweet for bringing this to my attention yesterday.