Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Odds, Analysis, NBA Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 29, 2017

SACRAMENTO, CA - NOVEMBER 22: Lonzo Ball #2 of the Los Angeles Lakers looks on during the game against the Sacramento Kings on November 22, 2017 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images)
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The Golden State Warriors (15-6) are hoping to have leading scorers Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant back in the lineup when they visit the Los Angeles Lakers (8-12) on Wednesday as solid road favorites.

Without the injured Curry (hand) and Durant (ankle), the Warriors lost 110-106 at home to the Sacramento Kings on Monday even though they closed as 13-point favorites.

       

Point spread: The Warriors opened as 11.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 117.1-104.1, Warriors (NBA picks on every game)

        

Why the Warriors can cover the spread

Curry is expected to return to action, while Durant could sit out for the fifth time in six games. The offensive boost Curry would provide is tremendous considering he is averaging a team-high 26 points per game.

Without Curry, Golden State did not have a go-to scorer at the end of the Sacramento game, and it cost the team a victory. In his last five games, Curry is averaging nearly 32 points and shooting nearly 50 percent from the field.

The Warriors have also won the past three meetings with the Lakers both straight up and against the spread, according to the OddsShark NBA Database.

        

Why the Lakers can cover the spread

Prior to a three-game series winning streak for Golden State, Los Angeles had won two previous meetings, with both of them coming at home.

The last victory for the Lakers versus the Warriors was a 117-97 rout as 11.5-point home underdogs on November 4, 2016. That came after they won 112-95 as 17.5-point dogs earlier in 2016.

This time around, Los Angeles has a much-improved young roster featuring a pair of Rookie of the Year candidates in Lonzo Ball and Kyle Kuzma, who could really take advantage of Durant's absence as a key player off the bench if he is unable to play in this matchup.

        

Smart betting pick

Durant's status looms large, so make sure to monitor any breaking news closely regarding whether he decides to play up until tip-off. Golden State does not deserve to be a double-digit favorite without him but would be a good value play if the line dips into single digits.

Regardless, this game will fly over the total despite seven of the last eight games between the teams going under. Overall, Los Angeles has seen five of its past six games go over, so look for that trend to continue in a high-scoring affair.

        

NBA betting trends

Golden State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games.

The total has gone over in 14 of Golden State's last 20 games on the road.

The total has gone over in five of Los Angeles' last six games at home.

        

All NBA odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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