Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus NFL Midseason Awards
It's been a bizarre NFL season, and that really hits home when you look at the front-runners for NFL awards as we kick off November.
Bleacher Report's NFL experts have weighed in on those race leaders, and anyone time-traveling from August 2017 would have a hard time believing the results.
Six of the 10 men honored in this project were not on their current teams in 2016. Our Coach of the Year isn't old enough to remember life before The Simpsons. Our top Offensive Player of the Year candidates are teammates—one has been an NFL player for two months, and the other supposedly had his replacement drafted in April.
Our Defensive Player of the Year has never been an All-Pro despite the fact he's a nine-year veteran. Our Comeback Player of the Year didn't miss a game due to injury last season, our Fantasy Player of the Year was passed on 85 times in the 2017 draft and our Breakout Player of the Year broke out in such dramatic fashion that he's also our MVP.
A lot can change in nine weeks, but it's beginning to look as though 2017 will go down as one of the weirdest seasons in NFL history. These awards are evidence.
Our Panel
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Before we unveil our midseason heroes, let's take a look at the NFL writers at B/R who participated in the election process.
Gary Davenport, NFL Analyst
Doug Farrar, NFL Lead Scout
Mike Freeman, NFL National Lead Writer
Brad Gagnon, NFL Analyst
Matt Miller, NFL Draft Lead Writer
Dan Pompei, NFL National Lead Writer
Brent Sobleski, NFL Analyst
Mike Tanier, NFL National Lead Writer
Sean Tomlinson, NFL Analyst
Coach of the Year
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Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams (6 votes)
In the offseason, the 31-year-old McVay (then only 30) became the youngest head coach in modern NFL history. That had to be a little concerning for Rams fans, especially since the only other head coaches that have been hired before their 33rd birthdays since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger—David Shula, Lane Kiffin, Raheem Morris and Josh McDaniels—have failed miserably.
Instead, it looks as though the Rams have a wunderkind on their hands.
The young offensive guru has been getting more than anyone could have expected out of young recent first-round picks Jared Goff and Todd Gurley, both of whom struggled mightily under the supervision of what was obviously an inferior coaching staff last season.
Goff and Gurley are both putting together Pro Bowl campaigns, and the 5-2 Rams have scored nearly as many points in seven games (212) as they did in all 16 last year (224). That's why he looks to have a firm grip on this award.
McVay isn't a unanimous choice, though. National Lead Writer Mike Tanier is a little more impressed with the job Doug Pederson has done with the league-leading Philadelphia Eagles.
"It obviously starts with Carson Wentz's development," Tanier said of the impact Pederson has made on his sudden-superstar quarterback, "which did not happen by accident. But the Eagles are playing well in all three phases, despite injuries. That's a testament to how much steadier Pederson's hand has been this season.
"His system is now locked in, and players are buying in. That's clear from the level of preparation and attention to detail you see on the field this year: Eagles backups always enter the lineup ready to step up, and the team is incredibly situationally sound in the red zone, on special teams, in late-game situations and so on."
There's certainly a chance the inexperienced Rams fade down the stretch. If that happens, this might be Pederson's award to win. But if Los Angeles makes the playoffs for the first time since 2004, you won't be able to pry this thing away from young Sean McVay.*
* Rhyming not deliberate, unless you liked it.
Offensive Player of the Year
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Tie: Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs; Alex Smith, QB, Chiefs (4 votes each)
This goes to show just how special the first half of the season has been for the Chiefs, who are averaging 29.5 points per game and have committed just three turnovers at the eight-game mark. Co-Offensive Players of the Year hailing from the same team? It'd be unprecedented, but it also makes a lot of sense considering how dominant both Smith and Hunt have been.
Smith is no longer the master of the checkdown. He's finally airing it out consistently, and it's paying off. The 12th-year veteran is by far and away the league's highest-rated passer (his 115.4 rating is nearly nine points higher than runner-up Tom Brady of the New England Patriots), he leads the NFL with a yards-per-attempt average of 8.4 and he's yet to throw an interception on 259 attempts (16 of which have gone for touchdowns).
Meanwhile, Hunt leads the league in yards from scrimmage by a 91-yard margin. Among 19 backs with 100-plus carries, the rookie third-round pick leads the way with a 5.2 yards-per-attempt average. And he's been mega-consistent, picking up 100 scrimmage yards in seven of Kansas City's first eight contests.
Of course, it's possible Hunt hits a rookie wall or Smith starts doing Alex Smith things in the second half of the season. It's also possible those two hurt each other's cases by splitting the vote. So keep an eye on the surging Le'Veon Bell.
NFL Analyst Gary Davenport is already buying the Pittsburgh Steelers running back as the leader of the OPOY pack.
"If Bell continues piling up touches at his current rate (he's averaging 33 per game over the last three games), one of two things is going to happen," Davenport said. "Either he is going to have another huge season (he's averaging over 150 total yards per contest over that same span), or his legs are going to fall off. OK, so it's possible both of those things will happen. But I think the former will happen before the latter, and an OPOY award will be a nice consolation for the whole legs-falling-off thing."
Regardless of who deserves this or who wins it, let's just hope all involved limbs remain intact.
Others receiving votes: Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers (1 vote)
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Defensive Player of the Year
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Calais Campbell, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars (5 votes)
Free agency isn't always overrated. Just ask the Jaguars, who are surrendering a league-low 15.7 points per game thanks in large part to the contributions they've received from high-priced veteran offseason additions Campbell and A.J. Bouye.
They'll probably tell you Campbell has made an especially large impact. The Jags are on pace to set a new single-season sack record after recording 33 in their first seven games, and 30 percent of those sacks belong to Campbell.
It's not as though the guy came out of nowhere. The longtime member of the Arizona Cardinals was a Pro Bowler in 2014 and 2015, and he earned those big bucks for a reason. But he failed to reach double-digit sacks in each of his nine seasons there, and he's already got 10 and two forced fumbles in seven games with the Jags.
"Campbell is doing the unthinkable in the first half of the NFL season," said NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller. "The NFL misses J.J. Watt right now, but folks should realize No. 93 in Jacksonville has replaced him this season as the league's dominant power rusher. Campbell's name should be in ink on your Pro Bowl ballots."
It should be noted, though, that these things don't usually happen to 31-year-olds, and Campbell's numbers are inflated by a four-sack performance against the Houston Tom Savages in Week 1. So we should at least discuss other candidates, and another Jaguar is actually our runner-up.
Could cornerback Jalen Ramsey win this thing? NFL Lead Scout Doug Farrar believes so.
"In his second NFL season, Ramsey has become the best cornerback in the NFL," Farrar said. "That's not hyperbole or an observation based on a few highlight plays—it's what he's put on tape throughout the 2017 season. A bit too aggressive in his rookie campaign, Ramsey has upped his technique and maintained his lockdown mentality; the result is a pass defender with the size, speed and dominant mindset to erase any receiver he faces.
"This season, Ramsey has allowed just 19 catches on 42 targets for 216 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions and an opponent passer rating of 41.4, per Pro Football Focus. The tape matches the stats, and it shows that Ramsey isn't just the best cornerback in the league—he's also the most important player on the league's best defense."
So naturally, Chiefs and Jaguars are dominating both of the player of the year award races.
Others receiving votes: Jalen Ramsey, CB, Jaguars (2 votes); Joey Bosa, DE, Los Angeles Chargers (1 vote); DeMarcus Lawrence, DE, Dallas Cowboys (1 vote)
Offensive Rookie of the Year
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Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans (9 votes)
OK, it's a little odd that Watson is our unanimous choice for Offensive Rookie of the Year even though rookie running back Kareem Hunt was named a Co-Offensive Player of the Year, but that might have something to do with the positions the two play.
Hunt's numbers are hard to deny, but rookie running backs seem to rock the league every year, and it's arguably harder for a rookie quarterback to separate himself from the pack. Watson's season hasn't been good enough for him to be considered a top-tier OPOY candidate (although that could change soon), but he's been so much better than rookie quarterback peers Mitchell Trubisky, DeShone Kizer and C.J. Beathard that it looks like he's running away with OROY honors.
"This is the easiest choice of all time," National Lead Writer Mike Freeman said. "Just put on the tape of Watson's game against the Seattle Seahawks and then hand him the award. Watson is even an MVP candidate. Easiest. Award. Ever."
Indeed, the numbers don't do justice to what Watson has accomplished, especially when focusing on that unforgettable performance against Seattle. Watson went shot-for-shot with an in-the-groove Russell Wilson, on the road, against one of the league's best defenses. The word epic is overused, but I'm prepared to do exactly that to describe his heroics Sunday, despite the loss.
"My God, Houston's so lucky," Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman told Peter King of The MMQB after that game. "By next year he's going to be a top-five quarterback in this league, and that includes the two big dogs [Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers]. He makes you dig to the deepest part of your competitive juices to beat him."
Oh, but the numbers aren't bad either. Despite the fact Watson didn't start Week 1, he wasn't quite ready in Week 2 and the Texans have already had their bye, the Clemson product has produced a league-high 21 touchdowns (19 passing, two rushing) while ranking second to only Smith with an 8.3 yards-per-attempt average.
Watson has a chance to put together a once-in-an-era rookie campaign, which should have him in a lot of award conversations. But right now, this one feels like a given.
Others receiving votes: Not applicable. Kareem Hunt is in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
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Marshon Lattimore, CB, New Orleans Saints (8 votes)
Rookies on the other side of the ball haven't been making as many headlines, but Lattimore is probably off to the best start among that group, which would explain why the No. 11 overall pick out of Ohio State fell just one Tanier vote short of being our unanimous Defensive Rookie of the Half-Year.
Lattimore has two interceptions, the first of which was returned for a touchdown in a victory over the Detroit Lions and the second of which cemented a victory over the Chicago Bears. He also has 27 tackles, seven passes defensed and the league's highest Pro Football Focus grade at the cornerback position.
Per the same outlet, only four qualified corners have surrendered fewer yards per cover snap.
"More importantly," NFL Analyst Brent Sobleski added, "Lattimore's presence has helped the Saints pass defense improve by nearly 50 yards per contest."
Indeed, he's a huge reason the Saints have turned things around on defense, which in turn is a huge reason New Orleans is riding a five-game winning streak while perched atop the tough NFC South.
"Obviously the thing that's hardest to measure in the draft is how quickly guys can transition and how smart they are," Saints head coach Sean Payton told reporters about Lattimore this week. "He's someone that's got good football makeup and IQ, so he picks things up very quickly and he's playing with a lot of confidence."
That has the 21-year-old running away with this award.
Others receiving votes: Marcus Maye, S, New York Jets
Comeback Player of the Year
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Jared Goff, QB, Rams (4 votes)
It's going to become obvious that yours truly didn't vote for Goff, because I have a question: What is Goff coming back from? The Comeback Player of the Year doesn't have to be returning from an injury, but that's often a factor. And if he has simply redeemed himself after a bad season (as Goff certainly has), there should be some evidence that he was a better player before said slump.
Goff has broken out this year, but he's not coming back from anything in particular, and he was never a good NFL player before his wretched 2016 season because he wasn't an NFL player at all to that point. But I suppose there's no official way to decipher these awards. Based on their interpretation, nearly half of our writers feel Goff is the Comeback Player of the Year.
What we can all agree on is this: Goff deserves recognition. It wouldn't have been outlandish to wonder if he was becoming a bust after he completed just 54.6 percent of his passes and posted a 63.6 rating while losing all seven of the games he started as a rookie in 2016. But he's bounced back with a stellar sophomore season.
Goff has cut his sack and interception rates in half, he has more than twice as many touchdowns (nine) as picks (four), his completion percentage has shot up to 59.9 and he ranks above the league median with a passer rating of 90.3.
Oh, and the Rams are 5-2.
Goff has gone from being called a potential bust to being called a potential MVP candidate. That's worthy of our praise, regardless of whether you want to call it a comeback.
Others receiving votes: Earl Thomas, S, Seattle Seahawks (2 votes); Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers (1 vote); Todd Gurley, RB, Rams (1 vote); Logan Thomas, TE, Buffalo Bills (1 vote)
Breakout Player of the Year
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Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles (5 votes)
As a raw rookie starter coming out of North Dakota State, Wentz struggled mightily for the majority of the 2016 season. It didn't help that he lacked weapons on offense, but the No. 2 overall pick also had issues with his decision-making and his mechanics.
Late last season, Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson reported that talent evaluators observed issues with Wentz's throwing mechanics, Meanwhile, Farrar picked apart Wentz's bad footwork, and Jeff McLane of philly.com reported that he spent lots of time focusing on that aspect of his game in the offseason.
Safe to conclude that work has paid off, because Wentz looks like a whole new quarterback this season. His mechanics and his footwork are greatly improved, he looks as confident as any starting signal-caller in football, and he's making far more big plays with far fewer big mistakes.
During the final 12 weeks of the 2016 season, Wentz ranked dead last in passer rating among 27 quarterbacks who attempted at least 250 passes. Less than a year later, he's right there with Tom Brady in terms of Vegas odds to win MVP, per OddsShark.
I'd say he's broken out.
Others receiving votes: Todd Gurley, RB, Rams (2 votes); Alex Collins, RB, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote); Jared Goff, QB, Rams (1 vote)
Fantasy Player of the Year
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Kareem Hunt, RB, Chiefs (5 votes)
Running back might not longer be a premium position in the real world, but it remains the most important position in fantasy football. And Hunt leads all players at that key position in fantasy points. In points-per-reception leagues, only teammate Alex Smith has more fantasy points this season than Hunt.
While Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley and Leonard Fournette have averaged more fantasy points per game in regular leagues, that aforementioned consistency puts Hunt over the top. The rookie out of Toledo is the only non-quarterback with seven double-digit fantasy performances under his belt.
It's not as though he can't spike. Hunt is the only player in the league who has recorded 40-plus fantasy points in a single week this season.
Considering he was likely available beyond the second round in most fantasy drafts, this is close to a no-brainer.
Others receiving votes: Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote); Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys (1 vote); Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans (1 vote); Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote)
Most Valuable Player
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Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles (5 votes)
The Eagles possess the best record in the NFL, and their quarterback is a big reason why they've won seven of their first eight games. These days, that's all you need to be considered a prime MVP candidate. Throw in that Wentz is tied for the league lead with 19 touchdown passes (to just five interceptions), and it's easy to see why he won the popular vote among B/R NFL writers.
Want a key stat to help establish why Wentz has possessed an edge over his counterparts? Look no further than third-down passing, which is often what separates superstars from the rest of the pack. On third down this season, the 24-year-old North Dakota State product is averaging a league-high 9.3 yards per pass attempt.
The next quarterback on the list is Tom Brady of the Patriots, at 8.6.
Wentz is the NFL's seventh-highest-rated passer with a rating of 101.6, but on third down that number climbs to 118.8. That has enabled the Eagles, who have the second-best third-down conversion rate in football, to extend drives and control games.
They lead the league in time of possession, which is a big reason why they lead the league in wins.
As NFL Analyst Sean Tomlinson notes, it goes far beyond Wentz's numbers.
"The most impressive aspect of his quick development is that Wentz now has the confidence to complete throws others wouldn't dare attempt," said Tomlinson. "His blend of athleticism and sheer size allows him to weave through or fight off pass-rushers, and as a result Wentz is making the Eagles appointment television."
Thus, Wentz has a strong chance of becoming the first player to win NFL MVP within two years of leaving college since Miami Dolphins legend Dan Marino did so as a sophomore in 1984.
Others receiving votes: Alex Smith, QB, Chiefs (2 votes); Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers (1 vote); Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks (1 vote)
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