Predicting Rookie Stat Leaders for Each Major NBA Category
Few NBA rookies produce at notable levels. There could be more in 2017-18 based on the talent in this class and how the chips fell in the draft.
A number of top picks landed with teams that will give them chances to play, score, pass, rebound, shoot and defend.
We projected who'll do the most of each and who'll lead in efficiency, just as we did with the NBA stars. Athleticism, tools, skill level, eye-test results and college stats factored in for these predictions.
Scoring: Dennis Smith Jr. (Dallas Mavericks, PG)
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Biggest threat: Markelle Fultz
Dennis Smith Jr. is in too favorable a spot with the Dallas Mavericks. Markelle Fultz may be the superior long-term prospect, but at 19 years old with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons ahead in the pecking order, and JJ Redick joining the lineup, the No. 1 pick in the draft won't be the focal point this season.
Smith could immediately be Dallas' No. 2 option behind Harrison Barnes. And with the Mavericks rebuilding, he'll have a long leash and green light to play through mistakes.
He also looks just as ready as Fultz, with more explosiveness, similarly high confidence and improved perimeter scoring ability with the three-ball and pull-up jumper. A summer-league star, he hit the 20-point mark in three of six contests.
OddsShark shows Bovada lists Smith (+325) being over three times as likely to win Rookie of the Year compared to Fultz (+1000), who we'd still favor in a redraft. Smith is just in better position to average more points per game this upcoming season.
Stat prediction: 16.5 PPG
Rebounding: Ben Simmons (Philadelphia 76ers, PF)
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Biggest threat: John Collins
Size, strength, unique quickness and coordination fuel Ben Simmons' rebounding potential.
His biggest threat: John Collins, who pulled down 14.8 boards per 40 minutes at Wake Forest and should crack the Atlanta Hawks' rotation.
A likely starter from opening night, Simmons is the better bet for regular minutes, though. As long as the heavy playing time is there, the rebounds will follow.
He grabbed 11.8 per game at LSU. Coaches could even instruct Sixers teammates to let Simmons grab the uncontested boards on the defensive glass, given his ball-handling and ability to initiate transition offense.
Jonathan Isaac needs to bulk up, Lauri Markkanen was never dominant inside, and Zach Collins and Bam Adebayo are looking at smaller roles. Simmons' tools, athleticism and hands should translate to frequent double-doubles, though Collins will push him for the rebounding title.
Stat prediction: 8.5 RPG
Assists: Lonzo Ball (Los Angeles Lakers, PG)
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Biggest threat: Dennis Smith Jr.
After leading the country at UCLA and summer league in Las Vegas in dimes, Lonzo Ball is a lock to finish first in assists among rookies.
He could even challenge the NBA's top veteran guards based on his role and unteachable vision. Ball, who may see up to 30 minutes a game as L.A.'s primary decision-maker, always thinks pass first and should have enough weapons to convert on his assist opportunities.
Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz will eat into each other's assists. Dennis Smith Jr. will be focused more on scoring and De'Aaron Fox will likely come off the bench behind George Hill.
Assuming the Lakers continue to push the tempo (No. 6 last year in pace) with Ball, he could threaten for top five in the league with over eight dimes a night.
Stat prediction: 8.5 APG
Steals: Donovan Mitchell (Utah Jazz, SG)
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Biggest threat: Josh Jackson
It will be hard for coach Quin Snyder to take it slowly with Donovan Mitchell.
Even if he struggles with shooting and scoring inconsistency, Mitchell should make himself tough to bench for long, given the defensive pressure he brings.
Mitchell averaged 2.1 steals at Louisville and then caused all sorts of disruption in summer league, where he racked up 22 steals in just five games. His size, quickness, strength and giant 6'10" wingspan are built for defensive playmaking. A live motor powers it all.
He won't even need starter minutes to lead all rookies in steals, though he should earn enough time at the 2, even if it means moving Rodney Hood to small forward.
Josh Jackson, Dennis Smith Jr. and De'Aaron Fox are threats, but Mitchell's superior steal rate and tools, as well as a role that will ask him to provide a competitive spark, makes him the favorite.
Stat prediction: 1.3 SPG
Blocks: Jarrett Allen (Brooklyn Nets, C)
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Biggest threat: Jordan Bell
There aren't many rookie bigs locked into their respective rotations. It wouldn't be surprising if Jarrett Allen finds his way to the Brooklyn Nets' starting lineup, assuming coaches choose to prioritize his development (over Timofey Mozgov) once the Nets are eliminated from playoff contention.
At 6'11 with a 7'5 ¼" wingspan, Allen has monster length and light feet. He only averaged 1.5 blocks per game at Texas, but he did record a rejection in 29 of 33 games played. He did a good job of contesting without fouling (2.6 per 40 minutes), something that could keep him on the floor with Brooklyn.
Jonathan Isaac will likely see more time around the perimeter in Orlando, and Zach Collins could struggle to find consistent minutes in Portland. Jordan Bell will likely finish with a better shot-blocking rate in Golden State, but it's unclear how big of a role he'll have for the defending NBA champions.
Stat prediction: 1.0 BPG
Field-Goal Percentage: John Collins (Atlanta Hawks, PF)
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Biggest threat: Jarrett Allen
As one of the most explosive leapers in the class, John Collins also has a high-percentage shot selection.
Some of his finishes and inside scoring remind us of a young Amar'e Stoudemire. Collins averaged 19.2 points and still shot 62.2 percent at Wake Forest despite lacking advanced footwork or dangerous teammates to draw attention away.
Even with every defense knowing Collins was the man to stop, he managed to shoot at least 50 percent from the floor in 26 of 33 games. His efficiency then carried into summer league, where he shot 59.3 percent through five games.
Jarrett Allen needs to toughen up down low, and Bam Adebayo tends to try fancier or riskier moves. Collins taps into his athleticism and timing to pick up easy baskets above the rim off rolls, cuts and putbacks. He's also flashed enough mid-range touch to make defenders pay for giving him room.
He isn't the most versatile scorer, but Collins has the tools, bounce, skill and instincts to capitalize on over half of the looks he'll get within 15 feet, where the vast majority of his field-goal attempts will come from.
Stat prediction: .550 FG Pct.
Three-Point Percentage: Lauri Markkanen (Chicago Bulls, PF)
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Biggest threat: Luke Kennard
There is a small group of specialized rookie marksmen that includes Lauri Markkanen, Malik Monk and Luke Kennard. The task is picking who'll shoot best in 2017-18.
Markkanen's ability to comfortably release with 7'0" size, plus a bigger role in Chicago—which should help him get into and maintain a rhythm—give him an edge. Monk can be erratic, and Kennard's minutes might fluctuate behind Avery Bradley.
Markkanen shot 42.3 percent on 163 three-point attempts at Arizona, and he's already 7-of-13 from deep through three EuroBasket games for Finland. The eye test validates the numbers: Markkanen has a fluid, effortless stroke when set, often in spot-up and pick-and-pop situations.
Malcolm Brogdon was the only rookie last year to make at least 40 percent of his threes. Markkanen earns that title in 2017-18.
Stat prediction: .400 3PT Pct.
Stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com. Wingspans courtesy of NBA.com.
