2016-17 NBA Fantasy Basketball: Best Buy-Low Trade Candidates
Want to make the other members of your fantasy basketball league mad at you?
Don't cheat. Collusion is bad. We're not recommending anything nefarious.
But if you want to offer up a legitimate trade proposal to an unsuspecting owner, no one is stopping you. It's perfectly legal to pull the proverbial wool over their eyes by targeting a struggling or injured player, buying low with full knowledge that he'll rebound to a more impressive level later in the season.
That's what we're here to help with.
Each of the following six players had an average draft position (ADP) indicative of (at least) near-universal ownership in standard Yahoo leagues. But their current ranks aren't justifying their lofty draft slots, since each, for various reasons, has struggled during the first six weeks of the 2016-17 campaign.
Don't hesitate to pull the trigger and acquire one of them. The bounce-backs are coming soon.
Ryan Anderson
1 of 6
Team: Houston Rockets
Position: PF/C
ADP: 71.2
Current Rank: 102
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 13.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks
It's not Ryan Anderson's three-point shooting holding him back, so much as his inexplicable inability to finish plays from inside the arc.
Although he'd knocked down 36.1 percent of his career attempts from between three and 10 feet prior to this season—and is coming off his two best years in that category—he's been incompetent from that zone. Not only is he taking fewer shots than ever in the area, but he's connecting at an atrocious 8.7 percent clip.
That's going to change. He'll inevitably grow more effective as he progresses to his mean. And the rest of his game should simultaneously improve, which means you could be looking at even more triples than he already provides.
It's not like he lacks confidence, as he told Bleacher Report's Maurice Bobb in early November:
"I’m looking at shooting about 90 percent this season. The staff has a lot of confidence in me. I’m just gonna shoot the ball. Hopefully I shoot it well, I’m gonna try to shoot it well. Some nights I’m not going to, some nights I will, just how it is. I think taking open shots and having those open looks, that helps the team overall because it gives us opportunities for offensive rebounds. That’s a good shot for us.
"
Anderson remains a perfect fit for head coach Mike D'Antoni's pace-and-space offense, and he's an ideal pick-and-pop partner for James Harden. His role isn't changing anytime soon, which means the numbers have to trend up.
Buy in before it's too late.
LaMarcus Aldridge
2 of 6
Team: San Antonio Spurs
Position: PF/C
ADP: 21.9
Current Rank: 55
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 17.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.0 blocks
LaMarcus Aldridge isn't your true buy-low candidate in that he's still performing quite well and won't usually be on the trade block. But if you're willing to swing for the fences and go after someone who should contribute like a second- or third-round pick for the rest of the season, he's the ideal target.
The big man's usage rate currently stands at a relatively low 24.9 percent, which trails the numbers produced during each of the last six seasons. He's also taken an inexplicable step backward on the boards, and that should change as the sample size grows larger. It's not like this 31-year-old is far past his prime.
But Aldridge shouldn't be a target based on how much he'll improve, so much as how his role will inevitably change when the San Antonio Spurs shift their offensive focus. Right now, they're placing too much responsibility on Kawhi Leonard's shoulders.
There's often a balance between offense and defense: Players only have so much energy, and they can't do all the heavy lifting on both ends. San Antonio hasn't found that balance with Leonard, and it's pushed him too far on offense, which has led to the worst defensive box plus/minus of his career (0.4).
At some point, Leonard's role will change. And when that happens, the extra possessions he's using have to go somewhere else. Aldridge is the most likely candidate.
Nikola Jokic
3 of 6
Team: Denver Nuggets
Position: PF/C
ADP: 33.0
Current Rank: 91
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 9.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks
"[Nikola Jokic] isn't going to be the same player he was last year," Mike Malone said about Jokic after a Nov. 18 overtime loss to the Toronto Raptors. "So everybody, stop expecting Nikola Jokic to be something he's not. I think it's unfair to him. He's playing well, he's rebounding, he's looking for his offense, he's playmaking for other guys, and that's all we need him to do."
That mentality also should apply to his fantasy stock.
The 33.0 ADP saddled Jokic with lofty expectations that he couldn't reach on a Denver Nuggets team swimming in depth. With Jusuf Nurkic and plenty of others competing for minutes, the second-year big man couldn't possibly carve out a large enough role to justify his preseason hype.
But he's also better than his current rank would indicate, and the Nuggets are starting to realize as much. As Nurkic regresses, Jokic is thriving on the bench, averaging 10.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 0.3 steals and 0.8 blocks during his last eight outings while shooting 56.1 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from downtown. Whether he remains in this reserve role or moves back into the starting lineup, he's proved his value.
"We put him on the elbows, in the high post, in the low post, and play through him," Malone said at a Dec. 1 practice, per BSNDenver.com's T.J. McBride. "When the ball is in his hands, good things happen."
Dirk Nowitzki
4 of 6
Team: Dallas Mavericks
Position: PF/C
ADP: 59.2
Current Rank: 314
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 12.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.6 blocks
Dirk Nowitzki will eventually regain his health. And when he's no longer dealing with that pesky right Achilles strain, he'll resume his role as an offensive leader for the Dallas Mavericks.
Maybe this is the beginning of the end for the future Hall of Famer. Perhaps he'll never even reach the level he's hit in the last few seasons and fail to justify his top-60 ADP. Either way, he remains a tremendous buy-low option.
Dallas' offense is putrid. There's no other word for a team that ranks dead last in offensive rating (97.7) and, per NBA Math's adjusted offensive rating, is on pace to submit the 11th worst scoring season in league history.
It gets worse: J.J. Barea (out with a tear in his lower calf) and A.J. Hammons (played for a grand total of 24 minutes) are the only players on the roster with positive offensive box plus/minuses. That means everyone else has been a below-average contributor, including Harrison Barnes—in spite of his gaudy-yet-empty scoring averages.
Head coach Rick Carlisle should scale back everyone's roles upon Nowitzki's return, entrusting his veteran big man with increased offensive responsibility until the team figures something out. The German 7-footer might not be the league's most efficient player while handling this job, but he'll put up substantial fantasy numbers.
Dennis Schroder
5 of 6
Team: Atlanta Hawks
Position: PG
ADP: 73.9
Current Rank: 159
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 15.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.2 blocks
Do not give up.
Dennis Schroder has struggled in his quest for consistency throughout his inaugural season as the unquestioned starting point guard. He's occasionally thrown up big numbers, but then he mitigates their impact with a few more stinkers.
Still, the seventh word of the previous paragraph is key: Schroder remains the unquestioned starter.
He's not going to cede minutes to Malcolm Delaney, and the Atlanta Hawks don't have any other legitimate options at the 1. After fully committing to him by trading Jeff Teague for a first-round draft pick this past offseason, their fate is inextricably tethered to his development.
No matter how much he struggles, he'll keep getting minutes. And minutes lead to inevitable fantasy production.
Plus, Schroder's numbers have already begun to trend up in recent outings. Since his 0-of-8 showing against the New York Knicks on Nov. 20, he's averaged 17.4 points, 2.9 rebounds and 6.4 assists while shooting 43.9 percent from the field. He also put up back-to-back stellar showings against the Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors to finish November in style.
Marcus Smart
6 of 6
Team: Boston Celtics
Position: PG
ADP: 116.6
Current Rank: 206
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 9.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.4 blocks
As so often seems to be the case, we want to find players who are virtual locks for significant minutes. And Marcus Smart is one such contributor, given his penchant for doing all the little things that subtly make his team better.
"Few check off more boxes than [Marcus] Smart when it comes to the unquantifiable parts of basketball," Michael Pina wrote at the end of a detailed breakdown for Bleacher Report. "Hustle alone can't make up for a broken three-point shot, but hustle, surgical pick-and-roll play, bulletproof defense and devastating positional versatility make him irreplaceable."
Plus, he's starting to record more box-score contributions.
During his last five outings, Smart has averaged 8.0 points, 3.2 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 1.0 steals while knocking down just under a triple per game. You should expect that type of production for the rest of the season, and he has the ability to increase the scoring numbers if his shot ever starts falling.
You're not looking at this guard for his points or shooting percentages anyway—those can be found elsewhere. But if you want a sneaky contributor for rebounds and assists, you might be able to steal him from an unsuspecting and frustrated owner.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
Current fantasy ownership numbers are determined by placement within Yahoo’s standard leagues, but the complete lists can only be accessed within your own personal league.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com or NBA Math and are current heading into games on Dec. 3.
