I can’t say it loud enough, the NBA is all about quality, not quantity.
Take a look at the four conference finals teams this year:
Boston: Garnett/Allen/Pierce
Detroit: Wallace/Billups/Hamilton/Prince
Los Angeles: Bryant/Gasol/Odom
San Antonio: Duncan/Ginobili/Parker
The line-ups you see here all have three legitimate stars, unlike any other team in the NBA. Three seems to be the magic number, although the more the better, right? The point I’m making is that stars run this league, and to have a real shot, you need at least three on a team.
Teams that have the best benches don’t make the finals. Teams with the best starting line-ups do. The only exception is when the two are one in the same, and usually, having the best bench is a result of the stars who start.
Now, don’t get me wrong, role players are undoubtedly important. However, once you look past the all-stars, the association plateaus. All players in the league are athletic and have potential, but good role players are a result of the stars around them.
Turning the focus to Portland, it is easy to see that the big three are set. Oden/Aldridge/Roy. Before long, all three will be All-Stars. Mark it down.
While the big three is set in stone, everything else is up in the air. With so many trade assets, Kevin Pritchard is sure to try and make some moves. I say this is done through the draft, since it is the best opportunity to land a future star, who will be young and cheap—and there is nothing NBA GM’s love more than young, cheap stars.
Now, when KP looks at the draft, my guess is he will probably see two guys he really covets (outside of Beasley and Rose). There is little doubt in my mind that if he believes these kids can come into the league and be stars, he will go get them, because he has the assets to do so.
So, let’s assume KP decides he really likes OJ Mayo. The Blazers need a PG, and with Mayo and Roy in the backcourt, they could split duties and voila, problem solved. For the simplicity of this argument, let’s say Pritchard doesn’t like anyone else in the draft and must have Mayo.
To be sure of landing OJ, the Blazers would need the No. 3 pick, which is currently held by Minnesota. So what is worth giving up for this guy (who KP has determined is THE guy)?
Well, as far as I’m concerned, I’d give up anything besides what I think of as our “Core 5”. This includes Roy/Aldridge/Oden/Fernandez/Webster.
For those asking “who is Fernandez,” his name is Rudy and he is the best player in the world outside the U.S. Just to give you an idea of his value, many think he’d be a top 5 pick this year.
I threw Webster into the mix because he is only 21, athletic as they come, and at times, can shoot the lights out. As he develops, he will be a great SF.
That leaves a lot of players that we could trade to Minnesota to get that pick. However, just like we have a “Core 5” we also have a “Value 5” which are the five best trade assets not included in the core group. These five consist of Travis Outlaw, Jarrett Jack, Channing Frye, Raef LaFrentz (because of his monstrosity of an expiring contract) and Joel Pryzbilla.
To all you Blazer fans out there in an uproar over suggesting we trade the likes of Outlaw or Pryzbilla, remember the point of this article. Quality not quantity. While these two guys are great role players, they are just that, role players. If KP can find a way (which he can) to morph any combination of the “Value 5” into a star, then he has to do it.
Now let me throw out a trade idea. The Blazers give up Outlaw/Pryzbilla/13 to the Timberwolves for Madsen/Jaric/3. This trade works under the CBA, and it also works for both teams. Minnesota drops two bench players and picks up the center they so badly need plus a young super-freak athlete who can contribute right away but also has a ton of potential. Plus they get the 13th pick.
Portland gets the No. 3 pick, which it uses on Mayo. The Blazers also take on the useless contracts of Madsen/Jaric, whom they could end up waiving depending on the number of roster spots they need in 08/09.
Yes, for the Blazers, this is a steep price to pay. But for a PG that could turn into a superstar, this is really a no-brainer. Outlaw does have a ton of potential, but it would just be wasted in Portland anyway with all of the young talent. In Minnesota, he could flourish and really become a good player.
Minnesota: Foye/McCants/Outlaw/Jefferson/Pryzbilla
Portland: Mayo/Roy/Webster/Aldridge/Oden
This trade undeniably works in both teams’ favor.
Feel free to comment on any trade ideas you may have, all while keeping the CBA in mind.
Here comes the dynasty.
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4 months ago
I agree completely that this works for both teams. I personally want to see Mayo come to Portland, as well as I would like to hold on to Webster and get rid of Outlaw. Great article!
4 months ago
The main problem here is the fact that Minnesota and Portland are in the same division. Rarely (if ever) do trades involving a star player or top-5 pick occur between division rivals.
from 4 months ago
That is a very good observation. However, this truly does make both teams better. I think a combination of Outlaw/Pryzbilla/Alexander is more beneficial to the Wolves than Mayo or certainly Lopez would be. I don't think the threat of a division rival getting better would be off-putting enough to null a trade that could help them this much.
4 months ago
What have you been smoking? When, and I mean WHEN Oden goes down with a big toe injury, or whatever the case may be, you're going to be real sorry you gave up a Pryzbilla. Not to mention the fact, that with Pryzbilla on this team, this makes the best one-two center punch in the whole NBA. And, when needed, with Pryzbilla at center and Oden at PF, watch out!
Putting Frye in that mix makes more sense. He's a serviceable center, if the numbers work out.
Dennis/Gresham
from 4 months ago
Gainesville's finest baby! Picked it up the other day from Joakim. He's got the good stuff.
And I'll tell you what, If Oden goes down like you think he will, we better damn well have an explosive scorer like Mayo available to make up for what we'll lose. Or we could just keep Joel who is an offensive juggernaut? Wait, what!?!? Joel has no offensive game? Seriously? Damn.
4 months ago
No way we trade outlaw. We also need Pryzbilla. OJ Mayo would not fit in with our group of guys. The guy parties way too much. Hangs out with thugs like Carmelo Anthony, plus we dont need the distraction that surrounds him and his NCAA violations. Ive watched this punk play all year, and he basically a point guard that plays more like a shooting guard. Ill take Blake at starting point guard any day over Mayo. Please KP if your reading this Dont make the mistake of pulling this trade! Its a bad bad move.
from 4 months ago
The problem with being a homer is you don't see the truth. OJ Mayo for Outlaw/Pryzbilla is a steal. And it's actually plausible. We have to many strong character guys to let Mayo (who is by all REAL accounts a good kid not this "thug" you speak of) disrupt anything.
4 months ago
Great article, Chris. These Portland fans complaining about the character of someone they've never met are beyond ridiculous. This information is being reported third hand (at best) and some people think that is enough to make a judgment on a person's character? I'm glad I don't know. But you fans that are still beating this Jail Blazers reactionary drum are getting very embarrassing and need to stop. We have a great GM who is more than capable of making a great decision on who we want here.
4 months ago
Solid post.
In this draft, Portland should either go for one of the top 3 picks, or use the 13th pick as trade bait for a quality veteran player.
I believe Rose, Mayo, and Bayless will be the targets. Rose being the most difficult to obtain, of course.
4 months ago
They shouldn't trade the big 3 rudy or trout or marty. We can acquire another lottery pick which shouldn't be too big of a price to pay. Then we can swing the same type of deal that utah made with us to get deron williams. trade the 13 our other lottery pick and a future 1st maybe cash and a second round choice. Select mayo and have mayo and roy split the point duties. IMHO
4 months ago
Keeping Webster over Outlaw? That would be a huge mistake. Outlaw has All-Star potential whereas Webster will never be anything but a decent role player. Webster has the potential to be at best a 12 - 15 point scorer, marginal board help, poor passer, and average defense. Outlaw could top the 20 ppg mark, has shown flashes of being a 6 - 8 rpg guy, and has the length and athleticism to turn into a shut down defender with proper coaching.
Bringing in Mayo would be a huge mistake because he, like Love, is going to prove to be HUGELY over rated and have the teams that pick them upset for years to come over the wasted pick. Think Laetner/Olowakandi/Milicic
from 4 months ago
Are you nuts? Outlaw has potential to be an all-star? He WILL be the role player AT BEST. His defense is garbage because he always tripping over himself, and he takes ill-advised shots on multiple occasions. Webster is 2 years younger, has more athleticism, better defense, better rebounding skills, and a WAY better shot than outlaw ever will. Webster was drafted 2 years after Outlaw straight out of high school, so give Webster 2 more years that Outlaw already has had and then we will see if you are correct with your "12-15 point role player" statement.
4 months ago
You may be right. However, having been at most every game, what I saw was one player, Webster, who would have one outstanding game, then disappear for a month as compared to one player, Outlaw, who, while he disappeared on occasion, was often the Blazers best 4th quarter player, changed the momentum of game after game, and had the confidence of his coach and team mates to take key shots even when Roy and Aldridge on the floor.
As for athleticism...Outlaw has more speed, better leaping ability, and more agility. He has the ability to get out and run the break, something Webster is ill-suited to. We have yet to see if a healthy Oden will give the Blazers a running game but with Outlaw that option is available. He also has a willingness to go inside when needed while Webster spends far too much time standing in the corner waiting for the offense to break down. That renders whatever athleticism he has irrelevant even aside from giving the defense the advantage of playing 5 on 4.
Outlaw was also, if you recall, drafted straight out of high school. He is just 2 years older than Webster.
This year pretty much changed me from the biggest Webster supporter I knew to someone who is on the fence over which would be more valuable to keep; James Jones or Martell Webster. They play the same role, Jones just plays it better...but he is more injury prone.
from 4 months ago
That was exactly my point. Outlaw was drafted out of high school in 2003. Webster was drafted out of high school in 2005. Why don't you give Webster to age 23 before you make any harsh judgement. All I meant was that Webster shows more promising abilities than Outlaw does. In my opinion, Outlaw is very one-dimensional, but I will give him credit for being a go-to-guy in the 4th quarter. I believe we should trade him while his stock is high and hopefully move up in the draft. I believe webster is the future at SF of SG (only SG if Roy goes to PG though). Thanks
from 4 months ago
You also have to remember, even if Outlaw has All-Star potential, he's not going to become one in Portland. Plus, we're gonna have to give something up to get a player like OJ Mayo. That's something many Blazer fans don't seem to realize; we're not going to be able to pick up a franchise PG without giving up something of quality, and that doesn't include our used bench guys. Give a little to get alot (relatively).
4 months ago
Mayo is still a complete shot in the dark, and after watching him play against college defenders with only mediocre results I have serious doubts as to his ability against NBA defenders. Also his ball skills leave alot to be desired. What you are looking at is a kid who is the product of too much hype and not enough dedication. Finally i like Webster but too say he is part of the key five for the Blazers is just silly.
Summary
Dont pick Mayo
Dont trade Outlaw
Dont be stupid
3 months ago
I'm not sold on Mayo as a PG at all - honestly don't even see him as a "combo" guard - he's a shooting guard in my opinion. I'd rather have Westbrook. Webster over Outlaw?????? I must be watching different games thans some of you - I love Travis Outlaw's game and what he brings to the floor - Webster still looks lost at times.........
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