Predicting Final Destinations for the Hottest Names on the 2016 NBA Trade Market
Dust off those musty old crystal balls. The NBA's Feb. 18 trade deadline is nigh, and the outcomes of the hottest rumors are ripe for the predicting.
Big names are the focus of our informed premonitionsāplayers who are both super talented and have received prominent mention in the speculation salt mines.
Predicting where they end up, should they end up anywhere, is a matter of practical deduction. Reported destinations will steer our thought train, and in the absence of well-sourced intelligence, we shall suss out the most logical suitors.
So, let's peer into the hypothetical future.
Honorable Mention: Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
It's understandable if you thoughtāor, for that matter, still thinkāthe Cleveland Cavaliers would dump Kevin Love.
Prior to Cleveland dismissing head coach David Blatt, the Cavaliers players were right there with you, according to ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst:
If the Cavaliers ever decide to dissolve their Big Three, Love is the prohibitive favorite to be moved. But Cleveland, you see, isn't looking to break up the band.
"You'd have to go a long way to convince me that we're a better team winning in the Finals without a player like Kevin on our team," general manager David Griffin said during an interview on ESPN 850 AM in Cleveland, per Windhorst. "We've never once put together an offer involving Kevin, nor have we taken a call on an offer for Kevin."Ā
New head coach Tyronn Lue is making a concerted effort to get Love more involved on offense. His usage rate has skyrocketed through Cleveland's last three victories, and he's averaging more touches on the elbowsĀ than Kevin Durant since Blatt's exit.Ā
Maybe the Cavaliers are just drumming up his value ahead of the trade deadline.
Or, more likely, maybe they just know that Kyrie Irving, LeBron James and Love destroy opponents when on the floor together and are trying to salvage what is already a pretty good situation.
Prediction: Love stays put.
All the New Orleans Pelicans
OK, fine, the New Orleans Pelicans aren't shopping everyone. But their trip down "Good-Team-Turned-Crappy Ben Simmons Hopeful Lane" has put many of their players at the forefront of trade discussions.
Ryan Anderson
Although New Orleans would love to keep Ryan Anderson "long term," sources told Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler that it's "likely" he gets moved elsewhere. He will command a pretty penny in free agency this summer, and the impending salary-cap eruption could price him out of the Pelicans' range.
Expiring contracts such as Anderson's don't warrant high-end returns. He can bolt over the offseason and must be viewed as a potential rental by whichever team acquires him.Ā
Not to say there won't be interest. Anderson puts in 40 percent of his three-pointers and is even more lethal when firing off the catch. He is the kind of offensive force that can coax a desperate playoff contender into pairing a first-round pick with contract fodder.
Marc Stein of ESPN.com noted that Detroit Pistons head coach Stan Van Gundy is interested in reuniting with Anderson. But the Pistons are balancing rebuilding with competing and are more inclined to pursue him during free agency rather than ponying up any picks or prospects now.
The Washington Wizards are a team to watch here. They have been mostly idle over the past two years as they gear up for Durant's free agency, but after finishing fifth in the Eastern Conference last season, they're now in danger of missing the playoffs altogether.
If the Pelicans are willing to accept a mid-end first-rounder and filler in exchange for Anderson, the Wizards have enough of an incentive to invest in this year's playoff push.
Kevin Durant is watching, after all.
Prediction: Anderson ends up in Washington.
Eric Gordon
Eric Gordon was deemedĀ New Orleans' most expendable asset, according to John Reid of theĀ Times-Picayune, and that'sĀ true now more than ever as he remains sidelined with a fractured right finger.
But Gordon's $15.5 million expiring contract was difficult to sell before. He hasn't posted an above-average player efficiency rating since 2012-13 and is strictly valuable for his 37.7 percent conversion rate from downtown.
Prediction: Gordon plays out the end of his contract in New Orleans.
Tyreke Evans
Tyreke Evans is among those in New Orleans who aren't untouchable, according to Sheridan Hoops' Michael Scotto:
While Evans is battling tendinitis in his surgically repaired right knee, his recent absences have been more precautionary than anything. Pelicans coach Alvin Gentry told reporters, per Reid, that Evans could suit up if needed.
Shipping him only makes sense if the Pelicans are chasing a blockbuster acquisition; chasing a blockbuster acquisition only makes sense if the Pelicans are gunning for a bottom-two playoff seed; and gunning for a bottom-two playoff seed only makes sense if the Pelicans' primary ambition is to get bounced in the first round for the second consecutive year.
Ergo, the Pelicans should not be pursuing any blockbusters. (They should really be embracing Ben Simmons Fever, but whatever.)
In the event Evans can be attached to Omer Asik and the nearly $44 million he's still owed after this season, moving him becomes a no-brainer. Other than that, he's one of the three best players for a Pelicans team that hasn't yet given up on 2015-16. He isn't going anywhere.
Prediction: Evans sticks with New Orleans.
Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings
Sources confirmed to Stein that the Sacramento Kings aren't opposed to moving Rudy Gay.Ā
This, it must be noted, is different from the Kings aggressively shopping Gay. Stein said they already turned down the Pelicans' package of Alonzo Gee and Gordon and will only pull the trigger on the "right deal."
Finding that right deal figures to be tricky. Gay is owed a reasonable $27.6 million through the next two seasons, and his field-goal percentage has improved amid decreased usage. But he is still a below-average three-point shooter, and it's difficult to create the space necessary for him to be effective if your offense doesn't include two stretchy bigs.
Teams aren't chomping at the bit to fork over substantive assets for a borderline No. 3 option like Gay. Even if partnered with other assets, he won't be headlining a blockbuster deal that takes Sacramento from a fringe playoff contender to a surefire postseason squad.
The Kings post a higher net rating with him off the floor, so they could eventually back off of their "right deal" stance. But Gay is also their second-leading scorer, and shipping him out for odds and ends puts additional pressure on Sacramento's already-overachieving or inexperienced wings (Omri Casspi, Ben McLemore, etc.).
It will be easier to create a competitive market for Gay's services over the summer, after all the free-agency dominoes tumble. Offseason aggressors that strike out on the biggest names will look to acquire consolation prizes, and Gay, who can opt out of his contract after 2016-17, will look especially attractive to suitors in need of secondary scoring.
Prediction: Gay remains in Sacramento.
Markieff Morris, Phoenix Suns
If you thought the Phoenix Suns would trade Markieff Morris before they fired head coach Jeff Hornacek, you were wrong. Phoenix canned Hornacek, as The Vertical'sĀ Adrian WojnarowskiĀ first reported, and can now turn its undivided attention to the more pressing matter at hand: blowing everything up.
"Most rival executives believe it remains a matter of when, not if, Phoenix trades disgruntled swingmanĀ Markieff Morris," Stein wrote. "The Suns, though, stubbornly continue to hold out for stronger offers, which might not be forthcoming given the relatively dim view about Morris' rep at the moment."
Despite the inevitability of Morris' departure, a deal has never felt imminent. The most concrete bit of information to date came from Stein back in December, when the Houston Rockets were open to sending back Corey Brewer and Terrence Jones once the former was able to be traded.
Brewer has been trade-eligible since Jan. 15, yet nothing has materializedāprobably because Jones on his own is a lot to give up for Morris.
Jones is one of eight players who has buried at least 25 triples and is clearing 15 points, seven rebounds and one block per 36 minutes. His three-point percentage has fallen by a considerable margin, and he is slated for restricted free agency this summer, but frontcourt talent that combines floor spacing with shot-blocking is rare.
Morris, meanwhile, is playing through the worst season of his career. His shooting percentages are down across the board, and of the 249 players who have logged 700 minutes, he ranks 248th in box plus-minus:
Still, Morris oozes intrigue. He can be an above-average passer for a power forward and was one of just five players last season to average 17.5 points, seven rebounds and 2.5 assists per 36 minutes while swishing 50 triples.
To that end, Houston remains the most feasible destination for Morris.
The Suns cannot reasonably keep him in tow much longer; the Rockets need an infusion of talent to remain relevant in the Western Conference; the addition of Josh Smith makes it easier for Houston to fork over either Donatas Motiejunas or Jones; andĀ Morris will end up being a cheaper alternative to Jones once the latter puts pen to paper on his next contract.Ā
Prediction: Morris gets dealt to Houston.
Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks
Jeff Teague was an All-Star in 2015.
Now, in 2016, the Atlanta Hawks may view him as replaceable, per Yahoo Sports' Chris Mannix and Wojnarowski:
Ian Begley of ESPN.com brought wind of the New York Knicks' interest in Teague, but their absence of desirableāand expendableāassets puts them at a disadvantage. As of now, it's the Utah Jazz that rank as the most promising suitor.
Andy Larsen of KSL.com confirmed the Jazz's interest in Atlanta's floor general. They have a glaring need at point guard with Dante Exum out for the season nursing a torn ACL and, as ESPN.com's Zach Lowe argued, can put together a package enticing enough for the Hawks to bite:
"Utah won't deal rotation guys for someone on an expiring deal, and Teague has two years left on his contract. A Burke and Burks package for Teague and filler might work for both teams. Utah snares a clear upgrade in the right age range, and it sacrifices a backup and a No. 3 wing behind Hood and Hayward. Atlanta netting Burke softens the blow of losing Teague, and Burks would provide protection in case some rival makes a monster offer forĀ Kent BazemoreĀ in free agency.
"
Alec Burks is tending to an ankle injury and hasn't played since Dec. 26, which complicates matters. But he's only 24 years old and having a solid year, setting personal highs in points per game and three-point percentage.
Teague makes too much sense for a Jazz team on the postseason fringes. Utah is just a half-game outside the playoff bubble despite an abundance of injuries, and the West's bottom half isn't nearly as strong as it was last season.
Now is the time for the Jazz to take a win-now stance and gamble on a point guard with All-Star credentials.
Prediction: Teague winds up in Utah.
Stats courtesy ofĀ Basketball-Reference.comĀ andĀ NBA.comĀ and are accurate leading into games on Feb. 1 unless otherwise cited.Ā Salary information viaĀ Basketball Insiders. Draft pick commitments fromĀ RealGM.
DanĀ FavaleĀ covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on TwitterĀ @danfavale.
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