NBA Rookie Stock Watch: 2015-16 Preseason Edition
With the NBA preseason coming to a close, we've seen enough to get a feel for what to expect from the 2015-16 rookies.
And quite frankly, it's been an encouraging October for most of June's first-rounders. A bundle of them could be looking at substantial minutes right away based on what we've seen so far.
We took a stock report of the high-profile rookies and the others whose performances have been noteworthy—for better or worse. Only those who have played at least four games and have regular-season roles waiting were considered eligible for a report.
Stock Up: The Top Rookie Performers
Stanley Johnson, Detroit Pistons, SF
Stanley Johnson has had a convincing start, even dating back to summer league. And he's looked the part of an NBA 2-guard or wing through seven preseason games, averaging 12.6 points and 2.1 assists.
He opened with a 26-point effort against the Indiana Pacers and then followed with three more double-digit outputs. Coach Stan Van Gundy has even run Johnson at the point through various stretches of October.
Johnson has struggled a bit in the paint (18-of-43), something we saw from him at Arizona, but he's shot it well from deep (8-of-20) and converted a number of successful timely drives.
He's also flashed defensive potential with 11 steals and the versatility to guard multiple positions.
Johnson may struggle to create high-percentage looks early on, but his physical presence, and perimeter and transition games have all been well-established. He looks like a threat to eventually start on the wing, as well as a good bet for first-team All-Rookie honors.
Johnson's Stock Report: ↑
Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver Nuggets, PG
Emmanuel Mudiay has unsurprisingly fit right into the NBA game. His size (6'5", 200 lbs), speed, quickness and athleticism were ultimately made for it. He's averaged 15 points through five games, looking the part of a scoring point guard whose only (future) barrier to All-Star status may be decision-making.
He's played with a confident bounce to his step—as he usually does—while showcasing his signature ball skills and shot-creating ability.
Mudiay hasn't exactly lit it up from outside, but the shot-making ability he's flashed suggests potential to improve. Mudiay has hit 16 jumpers (six threes), a more important number than his 29.2 percent mark in the mid-range.
Meanwhile, his 5.4 assists per game have highlighted his playmaking, both coming off a screen and in secondary fast-break opportunities. On the other hand, his 4.8 turnovers per game reflect some lack of control. Many of them have been a result of either dribbling through traffic or leaving his feet too early.
Still, it's tough to argue with Mudiay's productivity and overall quick transition. He's established himself as a serious Rookie of the Year contender early on.
Mudiay's Stock Report: ↑
Bobby Portis, Chicago Bulls, PF
Bobby Portis going No. 22 overall already looks like an error in judgement by a handful of general managers. A high skill level and tremendous physical tools have immediately translated through six preseason games.
He's averaging a double-double—12.2 points and 10 boards. Portis' good-looking jumper has carried over early on, having connected on 10 of 23 attempts in the mid-range and four of nine from downtown.
He hasn't been efficient around the rim (14-of-30), a result of limited explosiveness, but his sticky hands and length have led to putbacks (3.5 offensive boards per game) and rebounds in volume.
Unfortunately, a loaded Bulls frontcourt will make it tough for Portis to find regular time during the season. However, it seems fairly clear Chicago acquired a legitimate asset in the draft.
Portis' Stock Report: ↑
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets, C
It sure looks like the Nikola Jokic draft-and-stash play is going to pay off for the Nuggets. He's been ridiculous through six preseason games, having made 29 of 37 shots (78.4 percent) and averaged 11.8 points and 4.7 boards in just 19.8 minutes.
Jokic happens to sport a terrific big-man body with a strong yet mobile 250-pound frame. He's flashed impressive instincts in terms of positioning himself for buckets off guard penetration. Jokic has converted a number of pick-and-rolls and catch-and-finishes in the paint, where he's 26 of 30. We've even seen outside shooting touch on two mid-range jumpers and a corner three.
His efficiency and production aren't sustainable, but it seems pretty obvious a regular NBA role awaits.
Jokic's Stock Report: ↑
Rashad Vaughn, Milwaukee Bucks, SG
So far, Rashad Vaughn's draft-stock spike in June seems justifiable. He's already blown up for 20 points against the Bulls and 19 against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
A pure perimeter scorer, he's done almost all of his work away from the basket, where he's 7-of-14 in the mid-range and 8-of-24 from behind the arc. Vaughn's shooting stroke is smooth from both levels, as is his ability to stop and pop off the dribble.
In five games, he's only taken eight free throws and eight shots at the rim, but Vaughn's shot-making prowess looks legitimate.
It's tough to predict how much coach Jason Kidd will use the 19-year-old rookie. But if O.J. Mayo isn't getting the job done, it's not crazy to think Vaughn can log some minutes in a role that asks him to spread the floor and opportunistically knock down jumpers.
Vaughn's Stock Report: ↑
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves, PF/C
Karl-Anthony Towns sure looked like a No. 1 overall pick during his debut, when he went for 18 points on 8-of-12 against the Oklahoma City Thunder. He's slowed down a bit since then, but through six games, the Wolves should feel good about their selection.
He's flashed a little bit of everything, though it's the mid-range game that's stood out most. Towns has knocked down nine of 13 shots from 16-24 feet, having demonstrated versatile shot-making skills, both as a one-on-one scorer (jab steps into jumpers, fallaways) and shooter off screens and pick-and-pops.
And he's converted a number of nice post moves, including his signature over-the-shoulder hook, as well as the sweeping one-hander in the lane after a dribble.
Towns is also doing work on the boards, where he's averaging 6.7 rebounds (2.2 offensive) in just 21.6 minutes.
He'd still go No. 1 in a re-draft if one went down after the preseason. Towns might not win Rookie of the Year, but nothing so far has indicated he won't be the top long-term player from the class.
Towns' Stock Report: ↑
Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns, SG
Devin Booker had two quiet games before erupting for a combined 33 points against the Rockets and Nuggets. His three-ball has worked for him early (6-of-14). Booker's effortless stroke and balance create the perception we could be talking about the top shooter from the class.
And though not much of a one-on-one scorer, he's showcased his underrated line-driving ability and transition game.
His preseason workload hasn't been huge, but when given the opportunity, the 18-year-old sure didn't look like the youngest player in the NBA.
Booker's Stock Report: ↑
Nemanja Bjelica, Minnesota Timberwolves, PF
Nemanja Bjelica may have played his way into Minnesota's rotation with a productive, efficient preseason.
His most noteworthy contribution: 11 three-point makes on 22 attempts. With Adreian Payne, the team's other stretch 4, struggling to settle in, coach Sam Mitchell may value Bjelica's jumper, as well as his passing and deceptive playmaking.
Through six preseason games, he's averaging 8.8 points and 5.5 boards in 21.5 minutes on 50 percent shooting.
Between his standout performance at EuroBasket and strong followup effort this October, look for Bjelica, 27 years old, to emerge as one of the surprise 2016 rookies.
Bjelica's Stock Report: ↑
Stock Steady: Holding Their Own
Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers, C
Jahlil Okafor has had some impressive offensive stretches that highlight his exceptionally advanced post game. He's averaging 10 points in 18.7 minutes, with a number of slick back-to-the-basket moves to show for his production.
Unfortunately, he hasn't executed at a high rate, having made just 12 of 27 shots in the paint and 16 of 41 overall (39 percent). He's also turned the ball over 13 times in four games and picked up 5.8 fouls per 36 minutes.
Overall, Okafor has had some strong moments and a few rookie ones. Still, with a full workload, he seems poised to emerge as Philadelphia's go-to option and a good bet to lead the team in scoring.
Okafor's Stock Report: ↔
Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks, PF
Kristaps Porzingis has had some ups and downs, both of which should be expected.
On the bright side, he did enough to win the starting power forward job for opening night. His shooting stroke looks like the real deal. The sample size is tiny, but Porzingis' 4-of-8 mark in the mid-range and 3-of-7 clip from downtown have been convincing. He's knocked down pick-and-pop threes and pull-ups off escape dribbles after shaking a closing defender.
He's also picked up five blocks in three games, showing mobility, quickness and monster length around the basket.
Unfortunately, a lack of strength was evident on more than one occasion. Despite his listed 7'3" size, he's just 2-of-11 in the paint, showing little ability to gain position or finish after contact.
Since June, he's also missed time on three separate occasions for minor lower-body injuries.
Nobody expected Porzingis to make an impact right away. Though his eye-opening long-term potential remains intact, his short-term outlook should consist of highs and lows.
Porzingis' Stock Report: ↔
D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers, PG
The NBA game hasn't come as easily to D'Angelo Russell as the college game did for him last November. He's shot 40.6 percent through six games while looking to balance scoring with playmaking.
Still, his mind-blowing passing ability has been on display through preseason. Russell has thrown some beautiful dimes and put together an 11-assist effort (in 18 minutes) against Maccabi Haifa.
His jumper hasn't fallen at the rate we're used to seeing, and he's settled on the perimeter a little too much (25 total jump shots, seven shots at the rim, nine free throws). But given Russell's exceptional skill level and confidence, I wouldn't panic.
The presence of Jordan Clarkson and Lou Williams may make it difficult for Russell to build rhythm and consistency, as well as a case for Rookie of the Year. However, nothing changes regarding his projection as a potential future All-Star guard.
Russell's Stock Report: ↔
Jerian Grant, New York Knicks, PG
Jerian Grant has made a strong case for a spot in New York's rotation right away. He's struggled a bit as a scorer, particularly around the perimeter, where he's 1-of-9 outside 15 feet. But Grant's value to the Knicks ultimately comes in the form of playmaking. He's done a nice job setting the table for teammates off penetration, ball screens and forward passes in transition, having racked up 19 assists and just eight turnovers through five games.
Without point guard depth or a starter (Jose Calderon) capable of breaking down the defense, Grant has shown he could emerge as a key contributor in 2015-16.
Grant's Stock Report: ↔
Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings, C
Willie Cauley-Stein's role and style of play haven't changed much from college to preseason. He's given the Kings a rim runner, rebounder (6.5 in 23.5 minutes per game) and rim protector (1.3 blocks). Cauley-Stein hasn't offered much offense (5.8 points), but he's been efficient (53.8 percent shooting) playing to his strengths as a finisher.
Seven of his first 14 buckets have been dunks. Otherwise, he's made his only jump hook and mid-range jumper through six games.
His preseason performance seems indicative of what we'll likely see during the regular season: limited scoring ability and off-ball activity.
Cauley-Stein's Stock Report: ↔
Justise Winslow, Miami Heat, SG/SF
Heat fans will have to be patient with Justise Winslow, who was never really viewed as an NBA-ready option to begin with. He's made just nine of 30 shots in preseason, with eight of those makes coming in the paint.
The college scouting report has ultimately held true early on. After making just 25 of 93 two-point jumpers at Duke, per Hoop-Math.com, Winslow has started his preseason 0-of-7 in the mid-range. He's also 1-of-8 from downtown.
However, despite struggling as a scorer, Winslow has managed to compensate with versatility, having gone for 10 boards against the Magic and eight assists against the Rockets.
He's going to struggle generating offense, particularly in the half court, but Winslow's all-around hustle and team-first approach could hold some value off the bench.
Winslow's Stock Report: ↔
Mario Hezonja, Orlando Magic, SG/SF
Mario Hezonja's strengths and weaknesses have each come to life through seven preseason games.
He's had no trouble fitting in with his 6'8" size, effortless athleticism and confident shooting stroke. Hezonja has made a respectable 21 of 49 jump shots, from spot-ups to pull-ups to fadeaways.
On the other hand, he's settled for long twos and contested threes, while his defense at times has looked "terrible," at least according to coach Scott Skiles, via the Orlando Sentinel's Brian Schmitz.
His first seven preseason games should be a telling sign of what to expect: streaky shot-making, highlight plays in transition, questionable shot selection and rookie-caliber team defense.
Hezonja's Stock Report: ↔
Joe Young, Indiana Pacers, PG/SG
A monster summer league helped raise the bar for Joe Young in preseason. He hasn't quite experienced the same level of success, but he's been productive enough—9.2 points and 3.4 assists in 19.7 minutes—to secure the backup position behind George Hill.
He has managed to score without being particularly accurate from outside (4-of-12 in mid-range, 3-of-16 from three).
And though not a natural point guard, he did a nice job pretending by looking for teammates off ball screens and penetration.
He'll struggle with efficiency, but in a 20-minute bench role that asks him to create opportunities and generate offense, Young has looked capable.
Young's Stock Report: ↔
Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers, C
Though highly skilled for a big, it still looks like Myles Turner's defense will hold the most value early. He's blocked two shots in each of his five games without playing more than 20 minutes in any of them.
Turner is moving well while showing off the instincts and length that have always fueled his reputation as a rim protector.
And though he's shooting just 43.3 percent, he has flashed advanced mid-range shot-making skills (9-of-16), including the ability to pick-and-pop or rise and fire one-on-one.
He's only averaged 16 minutes per game, so it doesn't look like he'll start the season playing with Indiana's first group. It does, however, appear that he'll develop into the team's long-term anchor.
Turner's Stock Report: ↔
Stock Down: The Slow Starters
Justin Anderson, Dallas Mavericks, SF
It's been a rough start for Justin Anderson, whose jumper refuses to fall. And unfortunately, his offensive game is almost completely dependent on outside shooting.
He's made just four of 24 threes, and as a result, he's sporting a 33.3 percent clip from the floor.
Luckily, Anderson has been a weapon in transition, where he can lean on athleticism over skill, but to hold enough value to the Mavericks, he'll have to emerge as a knockdown shooter.
Frank Kaminsky, Charlotte Hornets, PF
Frank Kaminsky has looked different in preseason than he did during summer league. So far, a lack of strength and explosiveness has shown up inside the arc, where he's struggled to finish (8-of-24 in the paint) over the trees.
Except for an 11-point outing against Knicks rookie Porzingis, he's had some difficulty separating into good looks (33.3 percent through seven games).
Three blocks in 123 minutes also highlight the lack of rim protection he's expected to provide.
His three-ball should ultimately carry him to a long NBA career as a stretch big. But it doesn't seem like Kaminsky will be offering much post offense any time soon.
With Cody Zeller playing well, Kaminsky, who looked like a potential starter over the summer, may have lost out on the opportunity to play big minutes early on.
Kelly Oubre, Washington Wizards, SF
Except for a productive stretch against the 76ers that saw him hit nine of 11 free throws, it's been a rough go early for Kelly Oubre, who's shooting 25 percent through five games.
The slow start was to be expected. Oubre didn't see too many minutes as a freshman at Kansas, and at 19 years old, he just doesn't appear ready physically, fundamentally or mentally.
At this stage, he also doesn't know where his field-goal attempts will be coming from, leading to difficult shot selection.
The Wizards took Oubre for his long-term potential, so these first five games aren't too alarming. They just confirm what the coaches likely figured entering the draft—he won't be much of a factor during his rookie year.
All stats courtesy of NBA.com.
