Fantasy Football 2015: 10 Players You Definitely Shouldn't Draft
With less than 50 days until the start of the NFL season, 2015 fantasy football is right around the corner.
You've probably already started researching, and if you're an aggressive owner you may have done a few mock drafts just to see who is available at each draft slot.
Here are a few players to stay away from in your draft, to best ensure that you are putting together a roster that can contend for a championship.
This list has been compiled using certain criteria while attempting to avoid the obvious. For example, Tim Tebow has been left off of this list. And, while he is a really nice guy, do not draft him in your fantasy football league this year. Or ever.
The rankings are based on injury history, age, team, depth chart situation and certain special circumstances. One example of a "special circumstance" would be Adrian Peterson, who served a prolonged suspension in 2014 and missed most of the season.
The list, as with all rankings, will likely be controversial, so don't be shy and be sure to comment or reach out on Twitter.
10. Andre Johnson: WR, Indianapolis Colts
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Fun fact: Andre Johnson has never had a 10-touchdown season in his 12-year career. That’s actually astounding since Johnson has been a No. 1 receiver for over a decade.
In fairness, Johnson never had anyone as talented as Andrew Luck throwing him the football, but he will now be the No. 2 receiver on a loaded Colts offense.
With the presence of T.Y. Hilton and Luck’s penchant for finding his tight ends in the red zone, the touchdowns may be few and far between for Johnson once again, as he has also found the end zone only 14 times in his past four seasons. Additionally, only 18 receivers since 1990 have had 1,000 yards in their age-34 season.
Still, some analysts disagree.
Some draft analysis from Michael Beller of Sports Illustrated:
"It might seem like a lot to ask of a 34-year-old receiver who isn’t even the No. 1 option on his team to post a 90-catch, 1,000-yard season. As we just made clear, however, Johnson isn’t just any receiver. He also doesn’t play in any old offense with any old quarterback. Now that Johnson is freed from the shackles of Houston and has been let loose in the veritable Eden of the Indianapolis offense led by Andrew Luck, he could easily reach those numbers while also doing one of the few things he has never done in his career: reach the end zone 10 times.
"
To be clear, I have always liked Johnson and I've owned him in several fantasy leagues. I've always wound up being disappointed, however, and I fear that this season will be no different.
Johnson's fantasy value as a No. 2 receiver will depend on how many touchdowns he scores in 2015. Luck threw 18 touchdown passes to tight ends last season, which makes Johnson appear to be a red-zone afterthought for the Colts.
That isn't to say that Johnson will have a poor season or be a bad addition for the Colts, either. It's possible that he has a very good year, since Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks are now off the roster.
My main concern is that Johnson will rise up draft boards because of his star name and new situation in Indianapolis. He might not be a bad stash pick at a value round, but if he's in your starting fantasy lineup in Week 1, you may have a problem.
9. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
2 of 10Adrian Peterson is ranked No. 4 on ESPN's Top 300, ahead of 2014 rushing leader DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch and Matt Forte, who broke the NFL record for receptions by a running back last season. It's hard to warrant taking Peterson in the first round this season ahead of every quarterback, wide receiver and tight end, especially since he derailed most fantasy owners' chances at a championship last year.
As the video above demonstrated, Peterson may be facing a reduced workload in 2015, which would cripple his fantasy value.
His value is up in the air, anyway. After a prolonged suspension forced Peterson to play in just one game last season, he may come back this season and not be the same.
Peterson is now 30 years old, an age at which few running backs manage to play at their highest level.
Since 2000, only 16 running backs age 30 or older have had 1,000-yard seasons. Only eight of them have had double-digit TD seasons, making Peterson's odds of returning as a star a little less likely.
If anyone can do it, it is certainly Peterson, and a case can probably be made that his near-full season off will allow him to return fresh and healthy. While he can likely come back and be a workhorse, it's unclear whether the Vikings want him to be.
Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata both had over 500 yards rushing last season and Asiata was a goal-line threat, tying for third in the league with nine TDs. If Peterson has fewer carries to begin with and the Vikings deploy a three-headed monster out of the backfield, it is possible that Peterson's red-zone carries will likely take a dip as well.
Peterson will likely still have a solid year and post over 1,000 rushing yards and near double-digit touchdowns, but his price point is just too high.
Maybe I'm just bitter because he was my first-round pick last year, but there is too much uncertainty surrounding Peterson for me to draft him early this season.
8. Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants
3 of 10Victor Cruz may be worth a flier in the later rounds of a fantasy draft this season, but the safe bet is to just pass on him.
Although Cruz played six games for the Giants last season, he was underwhelming. Cruz had just 23 catches for 337 yards and one TD before getting injured, putting him on pace for just 61 catches and 899 yards.
His injury allowed quarterback Eli Manning to find other options and utilize other weapons on offense.
Odell Beckham Jr., Rueben Randle and tight end Larry Donnell combined for 225 catches, 2,866 yards and 21 TDs in 2014, making Cruz's place in the offense moving forward a bit unclear.
If healthy, Cruz should be in the slot, but the amount of looks he gets in the revamped Giants offense is up in the air. The Giants even added running back Shane Vereen in free agency, who caught 52 balls out of the backfield in 2014 with the Patriots.
Cruz's receiving yards have regressed in each season following his breakout rookie campaign in 2011, so banking on a sudden uptick in his usage and production would be unwise.
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7. Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears
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Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler statistically had his best season since 2008 last season, but that doesn't mean you should go and draft him in 2015.
On the surface, he set career highs with a 66.0 completion percentage and 28 touchdowns, but his 5-10 record made him the subject of trade rumors for a large portion of the offseason.
Running back Matt Forte is the player to own in the Bears offense, since he gets a heavy amount of the touches and is dynamic in the passing game out of the backfield. Although Cutler still has Alshon Jeffery and rookie Kevin White to work with on offense, he will likely miss familiar target Brandon Marshall. Cutler has played just three seasons in his career without Marshall as a weapon and has thrown only 63 TDs in 41 games.
Cutler's inability to protect the football also hurts him in fantasy. He tied for the league lead with 18 interceptions and six lost fumbles last season.
He is anything but a sure thing in fantasy football this season.
6. Julius Thomas, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
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Julius Thomas went from fantasy football's most giving offense (Denver) to where fantasy value is nonexistent (Jacksonville).
It's truly a shame, since Thomas was beginning to put himself in the same class as New England's Rob Gronkowski and Seattle's Jimmy Graham. Now, however, the fantasy rule will be "Gronk and Graham, and then everyone else."
My feeling is that the Peyton Manning effect will loom large, and not playing with the future Hall of Fame quarterback will flatten Thomas' production just as it did to Eric Decker in 2014. Comparatively, Decker had 326 fewer yards and six fewer touchdowns in his first season with the Jets.
While Thomas had only 43 receptions for 489 yards last season, his 12 TDs tied him for the league lead among tight ends. The Broncos, however, had many red-zone threats, making Thomas harder to guard in the red zone. Since the Jaguars have nobody else, all eyes will be on Thomas, making it more difficult for him to find pay dirt.
To put Thomas' fantasy value in perspective, Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles threw 11 TDs last season—and only three to tight ends.
The smart play would be to pass on Thomas this season until he proves that he can be a fantasy asset in Jacksonville.
5. Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins
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Does anyone truly know what type of player Robert Griffin III is right now?
We can debate his potential all day, but it is looking like the Colts made the right decision to draft Andrew Luck ahead of Griffin in 2012.
After all, Griffin has been an injury-prone quarterback who has seemingly already had his running game taken away from him. Griffin’s rushing yards have decreased in each of his three seasons as a pro, from 815 as a rookie to just 176 in nine games last season.
As a rookie, RG3 was fourth in the NFL in completion percentage among QBs with 300 or more attempts and he finished third in the NFL with a 102.4 passer rating. He has exhibited flashes of accuracy and big-play ability, but banking on him to put together a sustained season of excellence in 2015 is unwise.
Griffin has career-high passing totals of 3,203 yards and 20 touchdowns. His fantasy value lies in his health and running ability, neither of which can be counted on this season. If he is healthy, it is certainly possible that he and DeSean Jackson will become a formidable duo that can stretch the field and take advantage of Griffin’s strong arm.
His talent may be great, but he can't be relied on just yet.
4. Sam Bradford, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
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Although head coach Chip Kelly thinks he can get the most out of any offensive player, Sam Bradford might be his most difficult challenge to date.
In five years with the St. Louis Rams, Bradford played just 49 out of 80 possible games (61 percent). Additionally, he missed all of 2014 with a torn ACL and is moving from playing his home games in a dome to the cold Northeast.
Bradford's lengthy injury history will make it hard for fantasy owners to put any faith in him, even though the Eagles typically have a potent offense and any starting quarterback is generally worth a fantasy look.
Bradford set career highs in 2012 with 3,702 yards and 21 TDs but has a career record of 18-30-1 and has played just seven games over the past two seasons. The No. 1 pick of the 2010 NFL draft has to have a huge bounce-back season in 2015 to shed the "bust" label that has enveloped his career thus far.
He'll also be without star target Jeremy Maclin this season.
The Eagles lost Maclin, who signed a free-agent deal with the Kansas City Chiefs in the offseason. Maclin led the team in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns in 2014. Without him, the Eagles receiving corps is now thin with just Jordan Matthews, Riley Cooper and Miles Austin.
If Bradford struggles early, Kelly may bench him in favor of Mark Sanchez. In nine games last season, Sanchez had 2,418 yds and 14 TDs.
3. Reggie Bush, RB, San Francisco 49ers
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The San Francisco 49ers are hoping that a change of scenery will help running back Reggie Bush, who struggled mightily for the Detroit Lions last season.
Bush had 297 rushing yards and 253 receiving yards while finding the end zone just twice in 11 games.
Now entering his 10th season, it would be unfair to expect Bush to have a career year in 2015. With fellow running backs Kendall Hunter and Carlos Hyde on the depth chart, it appears likely that Bush's role in the offense will be minimal if everyone is healthy.
Bush can be an effective change-of-pace back and contribute in the passing game on third downs, but his impact won't be great enough in fantasy football. If he has a year similar to the one Darren Sproles had last season with the Eagles, the 49ers would be thrilled. Whether he can is debatable, but even if he does, Bush would only be worth a look in fantasy as a bye week fill-in.
2. Trent Richardson, RB, Oakland Raiders
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Trent Richardson's career to date is bizarre.
A talented running back drafted with the No. 3 pick in the 2012 NFL draft, Richardson flashed his potential as a rookie with the Cleveland Browns, rushing for 950 yards and scoring 11 touchdowns. Since then, however, he has been brutal.
Richardson was surprisingly traded to the Colts, but he regressed significantly in a role that would have allowed him to succeed. Playing on an offense with an exceptional passing game should have opened up holes for Richardson, but he averaged only 3.1 yards per carry over 29 games.
Now with the Raiders, Richardson's fantasy value is all but gone. Even if you believe in his talent, it is extremely unlikely he will put up a fantasy-worthy season after two straight seasons with under 600 yards rushing. The Raiders will likely be playing from behind a lot this season, forcing quarterback Derek Carr to throw more often and limiting Richardson's touches.
Until he proves otherwise, Richardson should be nothing more than a last resort on your fantasy roster.
1. Johnny Manziel, QB, Cleveland Browns
10 of 10Perhaps the most polarizing and most debated figure in the NFL, Johnny Manziel has yet to prove anything on the gridiron. In fact, he has been little more than a major distraction off of it.
Even with quarterback Brian Hoyer now in Houston, Johnny Football is still going to have to fight for the starting job with 36-year-old Josh McCown. In fact, Mary Kay Cabot of the Plain Dealer reported that Manziel was a backup to McCown in OTAs.
If he's a backup, Manziel obviously has no place on a fantasy football roster. And, while he will likely get a shot during the season regardless, it isn't likely that Manziel will be able to put up fantasy-worthy numbers anyway.
In five games last season, Manziel attempted just 35 passes while throwing two interceptions and no touchdowns. He was a standout at Texas A&M but it is becoming more likely that he will be an NFL disaster, especially when you factor in his draft position and off-the-field issues.
Browns fans who hoped Manziel would be the savior of the team may have to wait a while, and fantasy owners should stay as far away as humanly possible.
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