Daily Fantasy Basketball 2015: NBA DraftKings Ideal Lineup for April 30
According to StatMuse, home teams are 24-13 in the playoffs so far. That means that over 64 percent of the time, the home team is scoring more points than the road team. More points generally means more fantasy points.
For that reason, my ideal DraftKings lineup for Thursday night employs six hosts and just two guests:
| Position | Player | Opponent | Price |
| Point Guard | Patty Mills | vs. LAC | $3,300 |
| Shooting Guard | Jimmy Butler | @ Mil | $8,700 |
| Small Forward | Giannis Antetokounmpo | vs. Chi | $6,100 |
| Power Forward | Blake Griffin | @ SAS | $10,300 |
| Center | Zaza Pachulia | vs. Chi | $4,600 |
| Guard | Khris Middleton | vs. Chi | $6,100 |
| Forward | Tim Duncan | vs. LAC | $8,500 |
| Utility | Marco Belinelli | vs. LAC | $2,400 |
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Jimmy Butler ($8,700) @ Bucks
Blake Griffin ($10,300) @ Spurs
But it's courteous to start with the guests.
Per StatMuse, Jimmy Butler is leading the league in postseason minutes per game. The Bulls star has provided a lofty fantasy floor for his owners. According to DraftKings, his worst outing still netted 38.5 fantasy points.
Granted, Butler played 53 minutes in one double overtime game, but he averaged 42 minutes in regulation in the other four contests.
Butler has been the Bulls' best player this series. He's posting solid numbers across the board, playing gritty defense and trash-talking in simple enough terms for The Greek Freak to understand.
Plus he's provided the viewers with some highlight-reel dunks.
Speaking of highlight-reel dunks—Blake Griffin continues to play out of his mind.
Doc Rivers is a great coach. According to NBA.com, he's one of just four active head coaches with a championship as a coach. But Doc is a horrible general manager for the Clippers. Look at their roster! Eight guys played in the last game, and two of them were Austin Rivers and "Big Baby" Glen Davis.
It's not surprising that Blake's hot shooting cooled off on Tuesday (made his first five shots, missed 15 of his next 20) when he plays this high-energy pseudo-point forward role for more than 40 freakin' minutes a game!
Still, that roster won't (and didn't) magically improve overnight. Doc will still rely heavily on Blake, DeAndre Jordan and CP3, and they'll likely fill up the stat sheet. In my opinion, nobody on the board will score more fantasy points Thursday night than Blake Griffin.
Patty Mills ($3,100) vs. Clippers
Marco Belinelli ($2,400) vs. Clippers
I'll be honest, both Mills and Belinelli are capable of scoring fewer than 10 fantasy points. Ugh, scary. However, both have played well in this series, and I expect them to continue their solid play in front of a raucous home crowd in Game 6.
Mills gives Chris Paul fits. According to NBA.com's player tracking data, Mills led the league-average speed each of the last two seasons. He's also been the second-best guard so far in the playoffs in catch-and-shoot situations. He's made over 76 percent of his attempts.
According to Basketball-Reference, Mills' offensive rating in the postseason is 139! Belinelli's is 126, and both are well above league average.
Per Basketball-Reference, Belinelli is a career 43 percent three-point shooter. If he gets a few open looks, he'll knock some shots down. If this game follows a script similar to that of Game 3 (a Spurs blowout victory), then Belinelli should play 20 minutes and far exceed his projected value. Otherwise, his owners are dependent on that hot shooting touch.
In Tuesday's column, I foolishly made the case for DFS players to start Tiago Splitter.
Whoops.
2.75 fantasy points and several internet trolls later, I was eating my words. Thursday, I'm rolling out Marco Belinelli as my token inexpensive Spur with upside. We'll see how this plays out.
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