2015 NBA Rookie Ladder: Can Anyone Challenge Andrew Wiggins?
The top two positions in the NBA Rookie of the Year race are looking more solid than ever following the 2015 All-Star break, but the rest of the ladder is rife with change.
Andrew Wiggins and Nerlens Noel don't seem interested in relinquishing their head-of-the-class status over the rest of the rookie candidates. The former has continued to excel, putting more distance between himself and his competitors with each passing month. The latter has stayed remarkably steady all season.
The big changes are a once-consistent top-three performer slipping out of his spot and a new member joining the top five.
A fresh face cracked the top-10 list for the first time in this edition, although his inclusion caused one of his own teammates to fall out of the picture.
Sincerest apologies to the Utah Jazz's Joe Ingles, whose slowed-down Manu Ginobili game makes lovers of left-handed craftiness feel happy inside.
Remember, this isn't all about who's the better long-term prospect, though we'll certainly touch on that facet. Rookie rankings focus on how each first-year talent has played this season, with added emphasis on more recent efforts.
10. Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers, PG
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Stock Report: ↑
Jordan Clarkson burst onto the scene at the end of January, reaping the benefits of a dramatically increased role in the Los Angeles Lakers' rotation.
He kept the run going in the early part of February, averaging 28.2 minutes per game. His 13.2 points per contest lead all rookies who've played at least two games in the month, and he's added 4.2 assists and 3.3 rebounds to his statistical tally in February.
Clarkson hasn't been accurate from the field overall, but the Lakers can certainly work with his 35.3 percent success rate from long range.
We're dealing with a very small sample of Clarkson as a rotation regular, but there's been a lot to like so far. If nothing else, he's established himself as one of the few Lakers stories from this season that could be described as a pleasant surprise.
The only guy feeling unpleasant, though, is Tarik Black, whose spot in the top 10 Clarkson has usurped.
9. Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves, PG/SG
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Stock Report: ↓
A show-stopping effort in the Sprite Slam Dunk Contest shouldn't alter the way we evaluate Zach LaVine's performance this season, but it's hard not to give his rim-rattling dunk contest revival some weight.
LaVine's overall numbers are scary—in a bad way. He's posted a player efficiency rating of 9.4, and his real-plus minus is the lowest of 456 ranked players in the NBA, per ESPN.com.
Nonetheless, trading Mo Williams clearly shows LaVine's development remains a priority for the Minnesota Timberwolves. And it should be.
LaVine is inhumanly athletic, and he has the potential to be a matchup nightmare as an oversized point guard. With Ricky Rubio as a mentor, there's hope for growth.
Right now, LaVine is a force in transition and a surprisingly able distributor; his 3.2 assists per game rank second among rookies who've played at least 1,000 minutes this season. The edges are rough, but LaVine deserves credit for staying confident and continuing to develop in a tough situation with the Wolves.
On balance, he's been worthy of a top-10 spot. But his rough start to February (3.0 points and 1.2 assists per game in just 11.4 minutes) has him on the fringes of the top 10.
8. Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets, SF
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A smart cutter who has also connected on the second-most three-point shots among rookies, Bojan Bogdanovic is a play-finishing specialist.
His place in the Brooklyn Nets' rotation has shifted from month to month, but after an invisible December and a semi-involved January, it appears Bogdanovic has settled into a consistent role in February. He's played at least 15 minutes in every game this month and has averaged 8.8 points and 3.3 boards in six contests.
Don't ask him to create his own offense or handle the ball; Bogdanovic is a scorer who needs to be set up, and he hasn't registered more than three assists in any game all season.
But if it's a savvy slash to the hoop or a reliable spot-up threat you're after, Bojan's your guy.
7. K.J. McDaniels, Philadelphia 76ers, SF
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Stock Report: ↓
LaVine is this rookie class' top athletic specimen, but K.J. McDaniels isn't all that far behind.
The Philadelphia 76ers wing is bounce personified. He skies for out-of-nowhere help-side swats and bolts out in transition whenever he smells an opportunity for a high-flying jam.
Unfortunately, McDaniels' highlight-generating prowess hasn't resulted in a stable role.
"He is down to 19.8 minutes in the five games of February, after no less than 25 any of the previous three full months, and the encouraging early signs that three-point range could make him more than a defensive specialist have been replaced by 18.2 percent behind the arc in the same five games," NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper wrote. "McDaniels needs to find stable ground again."
With Jerami Grant warranting minutes, we could see McDaniels' playing time diminish even more.
6. Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics, PG
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If you need Marcus Smart to score efficiently, you're out of luck.
If you need him to do anything else—rebound, distribute or, most importantly, play smothering perimeter defense—he's the guy you want.
Smart has developed a respectable three-point shot, hitting an eye-opening 42.4 percent of his treys in January. Unfortunately, he's connected on just 25.9 percent this month, dropping his season-long percentage to 35 percent.
That's still a solid figure, and combined with his overall floor game, it marks Smart as an impact player now and in the future.
"Smart has averaged a season-high 34.5 minutes per game in February and, offensive warts aside—he’s shooting 36.8 percent from the field—is fast developing into one of the league’s top perimeter defenders," wrote Chris Johnson of Sports Illustrated.
Note that Smart's defensive prowess doesn't just set him apart from his first-year peers, according to Johnson. The Boston Celtics point guard is already among the top stoppers in the entire NBA.
That can't be ignored, and Smart could climb another notch or two before the season ends on the strength of his defense alone.
5. Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets, C
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Stock Report: ↔
Jusuf Nurkic is nowhere close to being a finished product. He can't score in the post at all, lacks passing polish and finds himself out of position on defense more often than the Denver Nuggets would probably like.
For all that, he still has the highest PER among rookies at 16.6 and ranks second in rebounds per game with an average of 6.3. He's managed that production behind remarkable physical strength and a heaping helping of attitude.
Nurkic is a load inside who competes like crazy. He's not afraid to throw his considerable weight (280 lbs) around, and he seems to delight in mixing it up with anyone willing to engage him.
"He's like a wrestling heel," Nuggets general manager Tim Connelly told Grantland's Zach Lowe.
February has featured intriguing flashes. Nurkic scored 16 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in 34 minutes against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Feb. 9, and he swatted away four shots in a 106-96 win over the Lakers the very next night.
As he rounds out the skill aspects of his game, Nurkic should develop into a legitimate plus at center. For now, on present talent alone, he's a top-five rookie.
4. Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls, SF/PF
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Stock Report: ↓
With his playing time and productivity trending in the wrong direction, Nikola Mirotic slips out of the top three for the first time in weeks.
In the 10 games leading up to the All-Star break, the Chicago Bulls forward saw the floor for just 12.4 minutes per contest, and he shot 31.7 percent from the field. He's scored in double figures once in the last month.
With Mike Dunleavy returning to the rotation and Tony Snell looking more and more like a staple, the minutes may continue to decrease for the rookie.
Nonetheless, it's been a successful campaign for Mirotic overall. He still leads all rookies in win shares and ranks second in PER with a solid figure of 15.8. In addition, Tarik Black, who does his damage exclusively from the inside, is the only rookie with a higher true shooting percentage than Mirotic's 55.1 percent.
Maybe Mirotic isn't the breakout first-year stud he looked to be during the early months of the 2014-15 campaign, but he's also not the rotation afterthought he appears to be now. His true talent probably lies someplace in between, which is still good enough to hold onto the No. 4 position.
3. Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic, PG
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Elfrid Payton has recovered from a rough two-game stretch against the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder (in which he totaled four points on 1-of-12 shooting) to post February averages of 8.5 points, 5.0 rebounds 5.0 five assists on respectable 47.7 percent shooting.
You can't look at this guy for long without seeing the obvious point guard instincts. The vision, the change of pace and the knack for getting to key spots on the floor are all there. Payton is a born floor general.
Of course, you also can't look directly at his jumper without risking psychological damage.
Payton's form is as uncomfortably mechanical as it gets, and it's no wonder he's hitting just 19 percent of his threes and 33 percent of his long twos (16-23 feet) on the season. A 54.6 percent conversion rate from the foul line is also a problem for a primary ball-handler.
Despite the one glaring flaw in Payton's game, he's rapidly established himself as an impact talent. He leads all rookies in assists and is clearly the Orlando Magic's point guard of the future.
He's not so bad in the present, either, as his Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month award in January attests.
His next challenge will be shaking up the seemingly set-in-stone top two in our rankings.
2. Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers, PF/C
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Stock Report: ↔
If you think about it, nobody should be surprised that Nerlens Noel is all the way up at No. 2.
Not just because he's been in this spot for most of the year, but also because he might very well have been the top overall pick in the 2013 NBA draft if he'd been healthy. His talent has never been in question, and it's been on consistent display all year.
Noel averages 8.2 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, and his month-to-month production in each category has hardly wavered. The big news in February is his free-throw percentage; Noel has knocked down 76.5 percent of his foul shots so far, a notable improvement on his full-season conversion rate of 56.1 percent.
Thanks to quick hands, length and instincts, Noel has been a difference-maker on defense. He's played just one game all season without registering a block or a steal.
He's had at least one of each in every February contest so far. On the year, he's averaging 1.7 swats and 1.6 swipes.
The offensive polish isn't there yet, but Noel has lived up to his billing on D. If there is such a thing, he's No. 2 with a bullet.
1. Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves, SG/SF
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Stock Report: ↔
No rookie has topped Andrew Wiggins in raw counting numbers this year (he's tops in total points and minutes played), but the most remarkable quality of the Minnesota Timberwolves rookie's maiden voyage has been his efficiency in a major role.
Wiggins tops all qualifying rookies in three-point percentage, and he's attempted over 100 more free throws than his next closest competitor.
Consider this: Wiggins has topped the 20-point mark this season 16 times. The rest of the top 10, combined, have scored 20 or more just nine times.
Recently, he put up 18 points on 6-of-11 shooting in a Feb. 6 win over the Memphis Grizzlies, then followed that with 18 points, eight rebounds and five assists on 6-of-12 shooting in a Feb. 8 victory against the Detroit Pistons.
He ran into trouble against the Golden State Warriors' defensive duo of Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala in a six-point effort just before the All-Star break, but overall, Wiggins has maintained his clear edge on the field of late.
The unquestioned stud of this year's class, Wiggins' only concern going forward should be the Wolves' handling of Kevin Martin, who returned from injury at the end of January. He's been a high-volume shooter since coming back and has eaten up big minutes on the wing.
For Wiggins' sake, let's hope that's a symptom of Minnesota inflating Martin's trade value and not a sign the scoring hierarchy is being rearranged. If it's the latter, perhaps Noel has some hope for a late run at No. 1.
For now, Wiggins remains firmly atop the list.
Stats via Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated; stats accurate through games played Feb. 12.
