2015 NBA Rookie Ladder: It's Andrew Wiggins and Everyone Else
We continue to see fluid movement on the 2015 NBA rookie ladder, though not much has changed with regard to the top dog in the class, Andrew Wiggins. Over the last month, he's been about as good as anyone could have expected him to be this early in his career.
But there's also a new name in this week's top three, and it's resulted in a familiar one getting bounced out.
International prospects also now occupy three of the 10 steps on the ladder, one of the more underrated talking points in this year's rookie conversation.
These rankings are based on how each rookie is performing in 2014-15—not his long-term potential. It's possible that No. 7 on our board is a better prospect than No. 3. But at this point, we're only evaluating these rookies as current NBA players.
10. Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets, SF
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Stock Report: ↑
Just when it seemed like his spot on the ladder was up for grabs, Bojan Bogdanovic decided to average 11.6 points over his last five games.
Despite having relied so heavily on the three-ball for most of the year, he's ironically only made two of them during his recent hot streak. Since January 10, 16 of his 20 made buckets have come within 10 feet.
Bogdanovic's role is to catch and score whenever the opportunity presents itself within Brooklyn's offense. Rarely does he create, with 68 percent of his field-goal attempts coming off zero dribbles.
He'd ultimately be a lot greater use to Brooklyn if he could just start knocking down threes with a little more consistency. As a complementary shot-maker who doesn't rebound (2.6 per game), facilitate (.8 assists per game) or defend, 30.6 percent from behind the arc isn't quite good enough.
Regardless, he's one of the few serviceable rookies contributing minutes and production. He'll have to shoot better to move up the ladder, but his spot in the back is safe for now.
9. Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves, PG/SG
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Stock Report: ↓
Zach LaVine hasn't exactly been a model of efficiency, having put up a one-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio while shooting 43.8 percent from the floor and 25 percent from downtown in January.
But the facts are the facts—he's third amongst rookies (Jabari Parker excluded) in scoring and second in assists.
Even without much polish or basketball IQ, LaVine's explosiveness still translates to playmaking and easy buckets, while his shot-making ability remains a threat to the defense.
LaVine has struggled from deep, but he's actually been fairly effective in the mid-range, where he's hit 40 jumpers at a 34.2 percent clip.
Adjusting his decision-making and shot selection will take some time. Wolves fans probably don't want 45.7 percent of his field-goal attempts coming on pull-ups outside 10 feet.
But with LaVine, it's all about the flashes of potential, which have been encouraging, even if they're mixed in with frustrating mistakes.
8. Tarik Black, Los Angeles Lakers, PF/C
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Stock Report: ↑
Tarik Black has resurfaced with the Los Angeles Lakers after being cut by Houston to make room for Josh Smith.
And he's given L.A. the same physical interior presence he gave the Rockets, averaging 7.7 points and 5.3 boards on 66.7 percent shooting since joining the team.
Black even blew up for a 14-point, nine-rebound line in a win over the Magic on January 9.
On the year, all 65 of his made field goals have come inside the paint, which should give you a good feel for what type of player Black is.
Active on the offensive glass and strong around the rim, Black seems to have established himself as a serviceable frontcourt enforcer, despite having generated zero draft buzz during his final college season at Kansas (where he transferred after three seasons at Memphis).
Unfortunately, Black went down with an ankle injury Monday night, and chances are he'll miss some time moving forward. But without too much competition at the back end of the ladder, he's done enough to win back a spot.
7. Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics, PG/SG
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Stock Report: ↑
Despite the Celtics losing eight of their last 10, Marcus Smart has played some encouraging two-way ball, particularly in areas of the game where he struggled in college.
After hitting four three-pointers against the Clippers on Monday, Smart is now shooting 42.9 percent from downtown on 1.8 makes per game in January. He also has 44 assists to just eight turnovers during the month.
Smart still has trouble scoring in between the hoop and arc, having made just seven mid-range shots all year. But if you're a Celtics fan, you'll take the hot shooting and savvy passing and decision-making.
Still, between the suffocating pressure he puts on ball-handlers and his playmaking instincts off the ball, it's on defense where Smart has really earned his minutes.
"Watching Marcus Smart play D is the best reason to watch Boston for the rest of the season—and it might not be close. A terror," Grantland's Zach Lowe tweeted.
He's played at least 27 minutes in each of Boston's last six games, and with the Celtics competing for lottery position, look for Smart's green light to only get brighter. I wouldn't be surprised if he moved into the top five on the ladder by the next time we check in.
6. K.J. McDaniels, Philadelphia 76ers, SF
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Stock Report: ↓
As surprising as K.J. McDaniels' start was for the Philadelphia 76ers, he hasn't been overly steady.
After an ugly end to December, McDaniels bounced back for a few games in January before hitting the wall hard once again. Over his last four games, he's just 8-of-36 (22.2 percent) from the floor, including 1-of-11 from downtown.
Despite all that athleticism, he's actually struggled finishing around the rim, where he's making just 51.4 percent of his shots within five feet. McDaniels hasn't helped himself as an opportunistic shooter either, as he hits just 33.3 percent of his catch-and-shoot attempts.
His block rate has dipped as well, which normally wouldn't matter for a wing, but it's noteworthy for McDaniels, who has built a reputation for being an incredibly instinctive defensive playmaker.
Regardless, his rollercoaster performance is to be expected. The fact that he's on the ladder at all should be considered a win for the Philadelphia 76ers, who grabbed him with the second pick of the 2014 second round.
He's currently second amongst rookies in scoring and tied for first in blocks.
5. Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets, C
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Stock Report: ↓
Jusuf Nurkic has fallen back to Earth, having made just 3-of-20 shots over Denver's last three games.
His skills are still awfully raw, which is what made Nurkic's hot streak earlier in January, when he averaged 12.5 points over six games, so impressive.
At this point, his offensive attack is predicated on back-to-the-basket improvisation, although he's actually hit 11-of-24 jumpers in the mid-range. But whether he's scoring or not, Nurkic hasn't stopped rebounding and swatting shots. He's averaging 7.8 boards and 2.2 blocks in only 21.1 minutes in January.
Last year, Nurkic was just a teenager playing roughly 16 minutes a game against pros overseas. He's now a starting NBA center (for the time being) who leads all rookies in player efficiency rating, per RealGM.com.
Nurkic remains a project, but the fact that we've already seen results plays favorably to his believability as an NBA talent.
4. Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers, PF/C
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Stock Report: ↑
Nerlens Noel seems to have found an encouraging rhythm, having scored in double-figures and grabbed at least seven boards in three of his last four games.
The signature performance during the stretch came in a win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday, when he went for 17 points, 11 boards, five blocks and two steals.
He converted two mid-range jumpers, two hook shots, a pick-and-roll and two putbacks in what was easily one of his top outings of the year.
And it was nice to see, given his inconsistent offensive impact throughout his rookie campaign so far.
However, Noel's defensive versatility hasn't wavered. As Sixers.com's Max Rappaport points out, Noel, who averages 1.6 steals per game, would be one of five players 6'11" or taller to hit that mark in the last 20 years.
The lack of offensive polish is frustrating, but the more flashes we see like the ones we saw against the Pelicans, the more believable he'll be as a raw, yet promising, prospect on the rise.
3. Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic, PG
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Stock Report: ↑
With Andrew Wiggins taking up most of the spotlight, Elfrid Payton's recent impact in Orlando has gone slightly under the radar.
He went for 22 points and 12 assists against a tough Memphis defense Friday night, and then tallied 19 points and eight assists on Sunday against the Thunder.
But arguably his most meaningful stretch of the year came against the Rockets last Wednesday, when he scored 12 points in the fourth quarter to help Orlando secure the win.
Despite a jumper that lacks range and accuracy, Payton has shown a knack for scoring off one foot on runners and floaters in the lane.
At the point, he's really done a nice job of pressing the right buttons as a passer, whether he's driving and dishing or running the two-man game with Nikola Vucevic.
Payton also continues to make plays at the defensive end, where he's racking up two steals per game in January.
Averaging a whopping 35.6 minutes in Orlando's last five outings, Payton's confidence appears to be at an all-time high, as is his rookie stock. This is the first time all year he's found his way into the top three on the ladder.
2. Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls, PF
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Stock Report: ↓
Nikola Mirotic's minutes have been down lately in Chicago, where he's played 17 or fewer in six of the Bulls' last seven games.
And it seems to have hurt his shooting rhythm. He's made just 22.2 percent of his threes in January, scoring more than two buckets in a game only once during the month.
As a perimeter-oriented scorer who relies heavily on his jumper, these types of cold streaks aren't uncommon. And given his limited role, Mirotic hasn't had much of a chance to really catch fire.
However, he's still No. 2 amongst rookies in player efficiency rating (16.9), and he's the only rookie contributing meaningful minutes on a real playoff contender.
I don't think there's any questioning Mirotic's validity as an NBA asset—just his positioning on the ladder after a shaky few weeks.
1. Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves, SG/SF
10 of 10
Stock Report: ↑
Though he's been cooking the entire month, the Andrew Wiggins Show peaked on Saturday night against the Nuggets, when the rookie went for 31 points, nine boards and four assists in a win.
You can just feel his confidence pumping with every jumper he knocks down. Wiggins flashed it all in Denver, from pull-ups over screens and spot-up threes to shots off curls and slashes off pin-downs.
Attacking with the ball and moving without it, Wiggins put on a scoring clinic that highlighted his ridiculous mismatch versatility.
That performance didn't come out of nowhere. He's averaging 21 points a game on 47.8 percent shooting and 39.4 percent from downtown in January.
Wiggins, who struggled at the rim in college and through the first month of his pro career, has done a much better job as of late. He's shot 69.5 percent inside five feet during the current month.
The green light and limited expectations have ultimately been great for Wiggins in Minnesota, where he's had immediate hands-on experience as a top-two option in the offense.
It wouldn't be shocking if he started cooling off, but Wiggins has clearly turned a corner toward his towering NBA ceiling. The Rookie of the Year Award is officially his to lose.
All stats courtesy of NBA.com, Realgm.com
