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2015 NFL Free Agency: A Primer for This Year's Crop

Eric MackDec 29, 2014

There is still a lot of football to play in the postseason, but 20 teams and their fans are left to look ahead to next season. Those teams need some help and free agency might be a place to look for it.

Bleacher Report gives you an initial ranking of the top options in this year's free-agent crop. Some of these guys might never make it to the free market, but it sure is fun looking ahead at what might be this winter, especially for those teams whose seasons ended Sunday.

It is curious to note some of the biggest playoff contenders have the biggest names on the market, sometimes even in bunches.

  • The Dallas Cowboys have to find room for running back DeMarco Murray and wide receiver Dez Bryant.
  • The Denver Broncos have Demaryius and Julius Thomas still playing in a contract year.
  • The Detroit Lions' No. 1 run defense might face losses of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. 
  • The New England Patriots have a little of everything potentially available, including Darrelle Revis, Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung.

The following slides break down the potential free agents by position, and our lists are compiled and ranked from the contract data at Sportrac.comOvertheCap.com and the ratings from Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Quarterbacks: Mark Sanchez the Least Objectionable Free Agent

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When Mark Sanchez is your best starting quarterback option on the market, you cannot like what is ahead. There are far too many teams that need a starting quarterback, though.

Sanchez is going to find a market, despite his mostly down career to date. He at least finished well Sunday with a victory over the New York Giants. Sanchez told Mike Sielski of The Philadelphia Inquirer he has grown as a quarterback with the Eagles.

"

I've never had games where we completed this many balls. I feel like I'm seeing things pretty clear—downfield, underneath. My feeling in the pocket is just getting better and better with these guys. So it's been really fun. It's been an awesome experience. 

"

His experience is likely over, as Sielski wrote, but the numbers might have helped him earn a look as a starter with a rebuilding franchise devoid of a franchise passer. Sanchez enters the offseason as arguably the No. 1 potential free agent at his position.

Top Potential Free Agent Quarterbacks

  1. Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia Eagles (28)—He makes too many mistakes to be trusted on a contender like the Eagles, but there are teams with worse options at quarterback, believe it or not.
  2. Ryan Mallett, Houston Texans (26)—It is a shame we got only two games from him to prove he is worthy of being an NFL quarterback. He should return to Houston.
  3. Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans (26)—If he was able to stay healthy, he might have proved to be a franchise quarterback by now. He cannot stay on the field for a full game, much less a season. It is time for him to move on, but no one can slot him as a starter.
  4. Shaun Hill, St. Louis Rams (34)—He held the Rams together, but he is no better than a veteran backup now.
  5. Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns (29)—About the only thing going for him is the Browns might not want to keep Johnny Manziel as their starting quarterback.

Running Backs: DeMarco Murray's Career Year Comes Just in Time

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There is a growing notion in this modern NFL that running backs are disposable heroes. This does not apply to the Dallas Cowboys' DeMarco Murray.

After watching Murray play days after hand surgery, break Emmitt Smith's Dallas Cowboys single-season rushing record and run away with the rushing title, we would have a better chance to see owner Jerry Jones sell his team than Murray ever make it to free agency. Until he signs that next huge contract, though, we have to rank him as the No. 1 potential free-agent running back.

Murray is about as valuable as any single non-quarterback in the NFL, never mind a potential free agent. He does it all for the Cowboys, as veteran tight end Jason Witten told Tim Cowlishaw of The Dallas Morning News

"

He learned back in March and April there was going to be a commitment to the run and that he was going to carry that load. Early in the season, there was the question of was he going to get too many carries. He didn't flinch.

"

Jones has his best running back since Smith and his best chance at a Super Bowl since Smith. He won't let him go without tagging him as a franchise player. Until then, Murray tops our list of free-agent backs.

Top Potential Free Agent Running Backs

  1. DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys (26)—He finally (barely...still maybe not) made it through a full season healthy. He might become the NFL's richest running back, at least he deserves to be.
  2. Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints (25)The Saints finally fed him, but he would be better served in a power-running offense, perhaps.
  3. Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens (29)He was great off the scrap heap, but his age will mitigate the deal he can fetch.
  4. Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers (27)The Chargers repeatedly learned they could not count on him. He will be a one-year, prove-it deal no matter where he signs.
  5. C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills (27)He has proved to be a waste in Buffalo, but he has also proved he cannot take the physical pounding of a feature back either.
  6. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (31)His age will keep him from being highly sought, if he even finally leaves the 49ers. Carlos Hyde is there to take over if Gore does leave.
  7. Shane Vereen, New England Patriots (25)He isn't big enough to be a feature back, but that will make him affordable this winter.
  8. Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots (25)Fumble woes and coming off reconstructive knee surgery. No thanks.
  9. Knowshon Moreno, Miami Dolphins (27)This proved to be a wasted year, so he will enter journeyman status with his third team in three years.
  10. Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts (28)His best days are behind him, and his injury woes are not. He's merely roster depth now.

Wide Receivers: Demaryius Thomas Leads This Group...For Now

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Emmitt Smith's franchise record wasn't the only one to fall Sunday. Rod Smith's Denver Broncos single-season receiving yards mark was topped by Demaryius Thomas, too. It will make Thomas a rich man, in addition to one with bragging rights, as he told The Denver Post's Mike Klis.

"

Ever since I got here, you heard the name Rod Smith. I wanted to be better, so that's what I worked on. He's a guy who I stayed with after practice and talked to on the phone. Now, I can throw it in his face sometimes.

"

He can also take the record to the negotiating table. While the Dallas Cowboys' Dez Bryant might be a more physically dominant presence, Thomas also has a pretty clean record off the field, especially in terms of being a teammate and face of a franchise.

That is the reason we rank Thomas over Bryant as the No. 1 potential free-agent wideout...although we doubt either leaves their team at this point.

  1. Demaryius Thomas, Dallas Cowboys (27)—It is hard to imagine Peyton Manning losing this target, which is why he won't have to.
  2. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys (26)—It will be interesting to see Bryant draw a larger deal than DeMarco Murray, but it is the way the NFL is run nowadays. Might it lead to Bryant actually hitting the market?
  3. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles (26)—Chip Kelly's system might have a new leading receiver for the third time in his three years. Maclin is better than a product of a system, though.
  4. Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers (24)—It is interesting Jordy Nelson got a new contract in July, while Cobb didn't. He might be worth even more because of his young age.
  5. Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens (25)—The Ravens need more Smiths, not one less. It is hard to see him leaving.
  6. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers (27)—We have a hunch he is less of a "sorry receiver" he was called by Richard Sherman and more of a victim of Colin Kaepernick's limitations. We would really like to see him with an elite quarterback.
  7. Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars (27)—He was unable to recreate his previous magic, so it is likely he will have to try to do so elsewhere.
  8. Hakeem Nicks, Indianapolis Colts (26)—He quietly made it through a 16-game season for the first time, even if he no longer looks like a starting wideout.
  9. Kenny Britt, St. Louis Rams (26)—This was a solid rebound season that should get him some offers this winter.
  10. Cole Beasley, Dallas Cowboys (25)—He has become an important part of the offense down the stretch. It makes it likely he will be brought back. If so, and Bryant departs, Beasley might even emerge as a go-to man a la a Julian Edelman.

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Tight Ends: Julius Thomas as Injury-Prone as Any of the Top Options Here

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If you looked a couple of months ago, Julius Thomas might have been worthy of a Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski-like long-term contract. Now, he might have to hope to avoid a one-year, prove-it deal.

His season fell apart in the final two months, but the saving grace is he might have a few postseason games to polish off that free-agent resume. He needs them, because he looks like damaged goods. 

After having nine touchdowns in the first five games, he had just five catches, 66 yards and no touchdowns in the Denver Broncos' final seven games. He has dealt with ankle issues throughout his career, including the stretch run this season, something that might scare teams this winter, starting with the Broncos.

"Ankles, man, those injuries are nothing to play with," Demaryius Thomas told Troy E. Renck of The Denver Post. "It was tough to plant on that turf (in Cincinnati). "Julius is close. He's getting better. We need him."

Julius Thomas needs himself to show up in January, too. Still, he is the best potential free-agent tight end on the market:

  1. Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos (26)—A big postseason can make it tough for the Broncos to retain him.
  2. Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns (26)—His 2014 was a disaster, but the high-end potential is still there.
  3. Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals (26)—He is a block-first guy, grading out as Pro Football Focus' (subscription required) best pass-blocking tight end. Those have value.
  4. Charles Clay, Miami Dolphins (25)—An injury-plagued season makes him an affordable option.
  5. Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens (32)—Yet another potential free agent with a postseason to add to his value.

Offensive Linemen: Mike Iupati Apparently Not a Part of San Francisco's Rebuild

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Last winter was a busy one for offensive linemen on the free-agent market. There were plenty of teams competing for some premium guys. This 2015 crop isn't as deep but just as many teams need some help up front.

The laws of supply and demand should make this a profitable winter for the men ranked below, starting with the run-game mauler Mike Iupati of the San Francisco 49ers. Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee expects Iupati to follow Jim Harbaugh out of town, particularly since the franchise has depth to replace him.

  1. LG Mike Iupati, San Francisco 49ers (27)—He scored the second-best rating in run blocking among guards at Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He is going to make a team better right away.
  2. LT King Dunlap, San Diego Chargers (29)—He is the best left tackle potentially on the market. That alone makes him very important.
  3. RT Bryan Bulaga, Green Bay Packers (25)—He drew a top 10 pass-blocking rating at PFF, and he has his best years ahead of him.
  4. RT Doug Free, Dallas Cowboys (30)—He gets a lot of credit for what he was able to do for DeMarco Murray. He should get rewarded this offseason.
  5. C Stefen Wisniewski, Oakland Raiders (25)—He is one of the better young centers in the game, ranking in PFF's top 15 at the position.
  6. RT Joseph Barksdale, St. Louis Rams (25)—Yet another young lineman with good ratings at PFF, where he was top eight among run-blocking tackles.
  7. LG Orlando Franklin, Denver Broncos (27)—If not for the second-worst penalty rating at PFF, he would be elite in the ratings and higher on this list. He is good in the run and pass games.
  8. LG James Carpenter, Seattle Seahawks (25)—A strong postseason can raise his cachet real high here, especially considering his age.
  9. LT Michael Roos, Tennessee Titans (32)—His contract year was derailed by season-ending knee injury, which is a drag on his value.
  10. LG Dan Connolly, New England Patriots (32)—He might be more valuable to the Pats than elsewhere at his age.

Defensive Linemen: No. 1 Run Defense Stands to Lose Two Big Run-Stuffers

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What has taken the Detroit Lions years to build, might take one winter to tear apart. We are talking about the NFL's No. 1 run defense, which is led by a pair of potential free-agent defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley.

Teams with a lot of cap room might want to consider buying both, perhaps a team like the Cleveland Browns in the rugged AFC North. Tony Grossi of ESPNCleveland.com reported the Browns consider Suh a prime target and might be able to "make him the highest-paid defensive lineman in NFL history."

We rank Suh the top defensive lineman in a loaded market for them. If not for Greg Hardy's suspension amid domestic abuse charges, Suh might have had to be second fiddle here:

  1. DT Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions (27)—He doesn't do himself any favors with his nasty demeanor, but that is precisely what makes him great. He just can be a PR nightmare.
  2. DE Jason Pierre Paul, New York Giants (25)—It seems like a long time ago he was one of the game's budding superstars. He is still young and capable, if not still able to get back to the elite.
  3. DT Terrance Knighton, Denver Broncos (28)—He is a more affordable run-stuffing option to Suh.
  4. DE Greg Hardy, Carolina Panthers (26)—His return to Carolina is far more complicated than money or his ability at this point, as ESPN.com's David Newton reported.
  5. DE Jerry Hughes, Buffalo Bills (26)—He has put together back-to-back strong seasons, making him a real intriguing option this winter.
  6. DT Nick Fairley, Detroit Lions (26)—He has been injury-plagued in his young career, which makes him a risky buy.
  7. DT Jared Odrick, Miami Dolphins (26)—He is one of the more underrated potential options on the market this winter.
  8. DE Adrian Clayborn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (26)—He is a very good player when healthy, which he wasn't again in 2014. Someone can score a potential bargain here.
  9. DT Dan Williams, Arizona Cardinals (27)—Yet another run-stuffing interior guy off one of the best run defenses in football. 
  10. DE Cory Redding, Indianapolis Colts (34)—He proved he still has some juice in his old legs this season.

Linebackers: Kansas City Chiefs' Justin Houston Destined for Franchise Tag

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If we were to rank the free-agent options among all positions, the Kansas City Chiefs' Justin Houston would be No. 1 overall. There just aren't many 20-plus sack linebackers in NFL history. 

And, Houston will only turn 26 in January. 

It seems almost too obvious the Chiefs will use their franchise tag on this superstar, as Sam Mellinger of The Kansas City Star wrote Sunday after a performance that left him just a half sack behind Michael Strahan's single-season record.

“The last couple of plays that Coach called were for me to drop," Houston told Mellinger. "It's a team game."

Ouch. One more sack might have made Houston even richer. As it is, he is headed for an elite salary and perhaps something less than Pro Football Focus' No. 1 3-4 outside linebacker is worth. 

  1. OLB Justin Houston, Kansas City Chiefs (26)—He should get a long-term deal, but it is more likely he winds up with a one-year franchise tag tender.
  2. OLB Pernell McPhee, Baltimore Ravens (26)—He finished No. 2 to Houston in the PFF ratings among 3-4 outside linebackers, albeit a distant second.
  3. OLB Jabaal Sheard, Cleveland Browns (25)—He rated second best against the run among 3-4 outside linebackers at PFF.
  4. OLB Jason Worilds, Pittsburgh Steelers (27)—He is more of a pass-rusher than run-stuffer, but he is a starter wherever he signs. 
  5. OLB Brian Orakpo, Washington Redskins (29)—He could be a great player, but he just cannot stay healthy enough to show it.
  6. MLB Rolando McClain, Dallas Cowboys (25)—He remade his career and earned himself a lot of money this offseason, not to mention saving the Cowboys defense.
  7. MLB Brandon Spikes, Buffalo Bills (27)—He deserves more credit, rating as the eighth-best inside linebacker against the run at PFF. 
  8. MLB Rey Maualuga, Cincinnati Bengals (27)—He has lost value in recent years, but he is still a capable starter on a contending defense.
  9. OLB Lance Briggs, Chicago Bears (34)—He will prove he has something left to give, particularly against the run, but he will have to prove his health first this winter.
  10. MLB David Harris, New York Jets (30)—He quietly had one of the best seasons of his career for the woeful Jets.

Cornerbacks: Darrelle Revis' Pricey Option Makes Free Agency Inevitable

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Here we go again with Darrelle Revis. He seems to be the big target in free agency every year.

The New England Patriots can keep Revis off the market, all they have to do is pay him $20 million for 2015. It is more likely they will have to pay more than that over a number of years to retain him.

NFL insider Adam Schefter said on WEEI's Midday with MFB, per NESN.com's Sam Galanis, if the decision is left up to Revis, it will be made for financial reasons.

"

I've always looked at (Revis) as a businessman—that he's going to go where the best deal is. If the best deal is in New England, then fine. Does he like it there enough? If they win a Super Bowl, where he gets a Super Bowl on his resume, and he says, 'Now I can just go for the best deal truly.'

Or is it worth it to compromise a little bit there to continue playing on in New England where you've got a shot to win the Super Bowl? That's possible, too. The Darrelle Revis story obviously has yet to be written. I think he'd be open to going back to New England. But when I think of Darrelle Revis I think business first, always.

"

While this might be a wait and see, there is no debate about Revis being the No. 1 potential free-agent cornerback for 2015: 

  1. Darrelle Revis, New England Patriots (29)—Pro Football Focus ratings had him fourth among corners. He should be considered second to none, though.
  2. Kareem Jackson, Houston Texans (26)—He emerged as a top-10 corner, according to the PFF ratings. He is worth a sizable long-term deal.
  3. Brandon Flowers, San Diego Chargers (28)—A rebound season should earn him a long-term deal this time around.
  4. Chris Culliver, San Francisco 49ers (26)—There is going to be a lot of turnover in the Bay area, and he might not be a part of it.
  5. Byron Maxwell, Seattle Seahawks (26)—The fourth member of the Legion of Boom doesn't rate well at PFF, but he can earn his dollars this postseason.

Safeties: New England Stands to Lose More Than Just Darrelle Revis

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New England Patriots fans might want to be careful for what they wish for. A Super Bowl title is going to make it tough to keep the team together. It is particularly harrowing to keep the defense together, especially in the secondary.

Not only is Darrelle Revis' $20 million option unlikely to be picked up, but safeties Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung might be joining Revis on the open market. The latter two might seem like afterthoughts, but they are starters and even Chung—one of the Pats' draft failures, as The Boston Globe's Ben Volin wrote Sunday—came back to be "surprisingly decent in pass coverage."

This could be a great postseason for the Pats, and an expensive one, too. McCourty and Chung are both among the top five potential free-agent safeties:

  1. Devin McCourty, New England Patriots (27)—He is equally solid against the run and pass and it is unlikely the Pats can afford to bring all of their players back.
  2. Rahim Moore, Denver Broncos (25)—He proved healthy and posted a career-high four interceptions this season. He is only entering his prime years.
  3. Da'Norris Searcy, Buffalo Bills (26)—He has emerged as one of the best run-support safeties in football. Are the Bills going to let another safety get away in free agency?
  4. Patrick Chung, New England Patriots (27)—He was third best among safeties against the run in Pro Football Focus' ratings.
  5. Antrel Rolle, New York Giants (32)—He was far shakier this year than last statistically, per PFF, but his leadership is immeasurable.

Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.

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