B/R MLB 500: Top 500 Players for 2015
After sizing up the top players at each position throughout September, the B/R MLB 500 is now ready for its grand finale: All 500 players, one list.
If you're just joining us, the goal of the B/R MLB 500 is to assess players' individual skills with unique scoring systems for each position. In doing so, the idea is not to mimic wins above replacement and count up value, but rather to evaluate players as all-around contributors.
For position players, this meant looking at hitting, power, baserunning and, with the exception of designated hitters, defense. The distribution of points was tailored to fit each position, so first basemen were held to a higher power standard, catchers were held to a higher defense standard and so on.
For pitchers, we looked at command, whiffability (missing bats), hittability (manipulating contact) and, with the exception of relievers, "workhorse" potential. Once again, the distribution of points was tailored to the position, which in this case meant holding starters to a higher command standard and relievers to a higher whiffability standard.
Another important thing to know is that we weren't strictly interested in looking back at the 2014 season. We were also interested in looking ahead to the 2015 season.
This involved determining whether certain skills could get better or worse, as well as looping in top prospects who could break through next season and a couple of notable players who will be returning from injury absences. It also meant ignoring players who won't be around next year. Namely: Derek Jeter.
If you're interested in reading the individual positional slideshows, all you have to do is follow these links:
| Top 35 First Basemen | Monday, Sept. 1 |
| Top 35 Catchers | Wednesday, Sept. 3 |
| Top 150 Starting Pitchers | Friday, Sept. 5 |
| Top 35 Second Basemen | Monday, Sept. 8 |
| Top 35 Shortstops | Wednesday, Sept. 10 |
| Top 35 Third Basemen | Friday, Sept. 12 |
| Top 55 Relief Pitchers | Monday, Sept. 15 |
| Top 40 Center Fielders | Wednesday, Sept. 17 |
| Top 10 Designated Hitters | Friday, Sept. 19 |
| Top 70 Corner Outfielders | Monday, Sept. 22 |
If you would rather skip ahead to the complete list of 500, just know that the analyses have not changed since publication and that ties were resolved by prioritizing the player (or players) we'd pick if forced to choose.
A Note on Links, Sources and Key Stats
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Before we begin, there's something you should know about how this project was researched.
Some old-fashioned video-watching was involved, but the research mainly centered around looking at lots and lots and lots of data.
The data came from the following sites: Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, BaseballSavant.com and BaseballProspectus.com. Each is a unique statistical playground, and the five of them together can tell you everything you need to know about an individual player.
But don't worry. Though you're going to find plenty of links to these sites that you can follow if you're curious, you're not about to be hit over the head with sabermetric jargon. There are only a couple of terms you need to know.
One is XBT%. That stands for "extra bases taken percentage," and it's Baseball-Reference.com's way of tracking how often players advance more than one base on singles and doubles. It's a crude way to get a picture of aggressiveness on the basepaths, but it'll have to do.
I'm also going to repeatedly refer to "the defensive metrics." This means ultimate zone rating (UZR) and defensive runs saved (DRS), which are both tracked by FanGraphs. They go about it differently, but the idea behind both is to evaluate how good players are on defense.
Then there are two terms I devised for sizing up catchers' framing talents. With a cutoff date of Aug. 15, I used BaseballSavant.com to find that catchers are getting called strikes on 90.4 percent of the pitches received in the zone (Z-Strike%) and 15.4 percent of the pitches received outside the zone (O-Strike%). By comparing catchers' rates to these benchmarks, we can determine how effective they are at framing strikes.
Nos. 500-451: Smoak-Hill
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500. Justin Smoak, 1B, Seattle Mariners
So much for the breakout Smoak teased in 2013, as the 2014 season has taken his bat back to pre-2013 levels. Given the way his season has gone, the only reason Smoak is on here at all is due to the possibility of good health making him at least a playable first baseman come 2015.
499. Kendrys Morales, DH, Seattle Mariners
Maybe you figured out that Morales made the DH cut simply due to a lack of other options. If so, well done. Given the kind of year he’s had, the best hope is that his improvement (relatively speaking) down the stretch can lead to something in 2015. And given his track record, well, maybe.
498. Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
Howard was a limited player even back when he was hitting 40 home runs on an annual basis. With his power now diminished by age and wear and tear, he’s essentially become a replacement-level player who barely passes for a viable option at first base.
497. Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Due to the solid power he can provide and his ability to hit left-handers, there’s a role for Sanchez to play in the majors. It’s just not the role he teased he was capable of with his more impressive 2013 season.
496. Ruben Tejada, SS, New York Mets
Tejada’s not a totally unplayable shortstop. He at least has a steady eye at the plate, and his defense is better than passable. But without a good bat, much power, baserunning skills or a truly elite glove, it’s hard to see him becoming any better than just playable.
495. Darwin Barney, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Barney was barely a viable everyday player a couple of years ago when he had a non-disastrous bat and could run the bases. Now that he can no longer claim either of those things, his days as a viable regular are done. But as long as he has that glove of his, he deserves to keep getting work in some capacity.
494. Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
If we take it for granted that Weeks has gotten too lucky on ground balls this season, we wipe out a pretty big chunk of his modest return to form. But we can at least grant that a platoon role against lefties agrees with him and that he still has some occasional power to offer.
493. Ike Davis, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
The disappearance of Davis’ 30-homer power definitely lowers his appeal as a viable option at first base, especially knowing that he’s hardly a defensive whiz. But as far as platoon options against right-handers go, there are far worse options than him out there.
492. Billy Butler, DH, Kansas City Royals
Butler’s not totally lost as a hitter. He still makes contact well enough and has the bat control to target any part of the field. But the ground-ball habit he developed in 2013 is really hurting his ability to be consistent, not to mention hit for power.
491. Logan Morrison, 1B, Seattle Mariners
Though the promise Morrison showed in 2011 has since faded, he keeps teasing that he’s not a lost cause just yet. He’s highly prone to inconsistency, but he can handle the bat and still has some power to offer. As long as he’s healthy, he’s worth playing at first base.
490. Alberto Callaspo, 2B, Oakland A's
I’ll note that Callaspo was something of an underappreciated player back in 2011 and 2012 when he had about an average bat and a good glove to offer. Now he’s just a solid piece to bring off the bench, with a fantastic batting eye, ability to make contact and his defensive versatility being his top strengths.
489. Logan Forsythe, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays
There’s nothing in particular that Forsythe does really well. But when you take a high-level batting eye and add it to occasional power and solid defense, you get a guy you can play at second base without too many regrets.
488. Carlos Beltran, RF, New York Yankees
One sort of wants to give Beltran a pass for such a rough 2014 season, but it’s hard to do so. It shouldn’t be taken for granted that he’ll return to full health, and there are too many cracks in his game to overlook. But if he can at least provide some power and put together good at-bats, he’ll hold his own as a playable option.
487. David Murphy, RF, Cleveland Indians
You can do worse than Murphy if you’re looking for a lefty-swinging platoon outfielder. But since he doesn’t hit, hit for power, run or play defense especially well, you can do better too.
486. Kevin Plawecki, C, New York Mets
Plawecki may not be the best catcher in the minor leagues on either side of the ball, but he’s a well-rounded player with tools and secondary skills that project at the major league level. His defense requires further refinement and may never develop beyond the league average, but Plawecki's knack for making consistent contact should always help to outweigh some of those specific concerns.
485. Mitch Moreland, 1B, Texas Rangers
Moreland’s bat has had holes in it for two years now, and that’s no small hang-up. But if we take it for granted that still being on the good side of 30 will allow him to make a strong comeback from ankle surgery, he should get back to being a part-time power supply and decent defensive first baseman.
484. Allen Craig, RF, Boston Red Sox
Craig can still put together solid at-bats, produce some opposite-field power and play decent defense at a couple of different positions. But knowing that he can't hit fastballs, use left field or run the bases anymore, don't hold your breath waiting for him to get back to being the player he used to be.
483. Everth Cabrera, SS, San Diego Padres
It’s been some downfall for Cabrera. His breakout 2013 season was interrupted by his Biogenesis suspension, and his 2014 season has been governed by Murphy’s law. But even if his bat isn’t fixed and he doesn’t get back to being a big stolen-base threat, there’s at least some value left in his legs and glove.
482. Dioner Navarro, C, Toronto Blue Jays
Navarro’s transformation from an aggressive swinger into more of a contact hitter is admirable. But it has cost him some power and walks, making his hitting less of a strength. That’s bad given how iffy his defense is, particularly when it comes to getting strikes for his pitchers.
481. David Freese, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
If for no other reason than his defense has been more mistake-free, Freese is having a better season than the one he had in St. Louis a year ago. But with a bat and power that aren’t as strong as they once were, he’s really not much more than a warm body to put at third base.
480. Chris Johnson, 3B, Atlanta Braves
Johnson has gotten better at two things he was weak at in 2013: baserunning and defense. But it was his hitting that earned him attention, and that’s taken a big step back thanks to too much wild swinging and a decrease in power.
479. Josh Bell, RF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Bell’s offensive development has progressed quickly after a slow, injury-filled start to his career, as he projects to hit for both average and power at the highest level. His future defensive home remains up in the air, especially given the Pirates’ current outfield configuration, but the organization still has time to determine how to get his bat into the mix.
478. Garin Cecchini, 3B, Boston Red Sox
Cecchini’s lack of power isn’t a clean fit at the hot corner—which is why he’s also seen time in left field this season—but he has the tools and offensive skills to be a solid big leaguer. He’s blocked at the position with the Red Sox, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the 23-year-old was dangled as trade bait this offseason.
477. Will Venable, OF, San Diego Padres
Coming off a year in which he was a surprise 20-20 player, it’s hard to look at what Venable has done in 2014 without feeling disappointed. And frankly, it’s hard to make excuses for him. But at the absolute least, he still has occasional power, solid baserunning skills and a good glove to offer.
476. Tommy Medica, 1B, San Diego Padres
It’s hard to get excited about what Medica brings to the table from an offensive standpoint, as he has plenty of exploitable weaknesses and hasn’t displayed his raw power as much as the surface numbers indicate. But since he has some athleticism and a solid glove to offer, he’s not a bad fill-in first baseman.
475. Josh Fields, RP, Houston Astros
If you focus strictly on Fields’ 4.00-plus ERA, you’ll see him as just another mediocre reliever. But he's pitched better than his ERA, tightening up his command and getting more swinging strikes. He hasn’t been great, but he’s been a lot better than he appears on the surface.
474. Junichi Tazawa, RP, Boston Red Sox
Tazawa’s barely hanging on as one of the top relievers in the league, as he’s only becoming more hittable and less effective at throwing strikes and missing bats. But as long as he’s at least better than most at doing the latter two, he’ll have enough to get by.
473. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit Tigers
Castellanos has been humbled in all sorts of ways in his first full season, with his hitting, baserunning and defense all being negative sources of value for the Tigers. But if there’s something to have faith in, it’s his power. It’s better than the results make it look and should soon be a legit strength.
472. C.J. Cron, DH, Los Angeles Angels
It looks like Cron’s power is cut out for the big leagues, as he has a good pull-power approach with some extra-base hit power to right-center on the side. Exactly how many at-bats he can get and how consistent he can be, however, are legit questions.
471. Prince Fielder, 1B, Texas Rangers
In no time at all, Fielder has gone from being one of the most dangerous hitters in the game to a hitter who’s broken both literally and figuratively. I’m admittedly placing some level of hope that Fielder can recover enough to find some of his old form at the plate, which would make him at least playable on a daily basis. Fair warning, though: If he can’t do that, it’ll be ugly.
470. Dayan Viciedo, OF, Chicago White Sox
Viciedo has some pretty good power to offer and potentially more so going forward at the rate he’s on. It’s just not going to come with consistent hitting, good baserunning or solid defense.
469. Garrett Jones, 1B, Miami Marlins
Living with Jones means living with poor baserunning and defense and a decidedly average bat when it comes to both hitting and power. But with even average bats in short supply these days, that Jones has one makes him at least a playable option at first base.
468. Emilio Bonifacio, CF, Atlanta Braves
All Bonifacio really has to offer is his speed and a glove that can be installed at pretty much any position. While that doesn't sound like much, it's at least enough to keep him around as a capable part-timer.
467. Oliver Perez, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks
All complaints about Perez’s command, velocity and slider hittability aside, he’s still what he was in 2013: something of an underrated reliever. His slider is a real weapon even despite its increased hittability, and his willingness to mix up his four-seamer and sinker more has made him good for ground balls and pop-ups.
466. Trevor Rosenthal, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
Rosenthal has gone from being one of the most dominant relievers in the league to being significantly less dominant, mainly thanks to horrible command. But he’s not a fallen star just yet. That he’s managed to get enough whiffs and soft contact to rack up over 40 saves says it all about his stuff.
465. Domingo Santana, RF, Houston Astros
Santana has the potential to be a solid everyday right fielder who hits 20 home runs, but strikeouts likely will remain a problem during his career. That being said, Santana is still very young and will receive every opportunity to reach his potential.
464. Danny Espinosa, 2B, WAS Nationals
Because he has good power and a solid glove to offer, Espinosa’s not as unplayable as his batting stats make him look. But those batting stats are definitely a drag on his value, and how to fix them is a tough question. Espinosa’s hitting is weak from all sorts of different perspectives.
463. Kennys Vargas, DH, Minnesota Twins
We’re still very much in the “getting to know you” phase with Vargas, but what he’s shown has been encouraging enough. At the least, it looks like he has some fine power to offer and that he’s not going to let many fastballs go unpunished.
462. Marwin Gonzalez, SS, Houston Astros
Because Gonzalez has made some adjustments as a hitter, he’s now a guy who can give the Houston Astros some decent offense and defense at short. It just might not get any better than decent, so he should be considered merely their best placeholder until Carlos Correa is ready.
461. Eugenio Suarez, SS, Detroit Tigers
The first few weeks of Suarez’s big league career were an intriguing tease. But in reality, the player he’s been more recently is likely the more accurate portrayal. He’s merely a passable hitter with the potential to be an above-average defender at short, which he’ll have to be if he wants to stick in the majors.
460. Yunel Escobar, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
After riding a solid bat and plus defense to a terrific bounce-back season in 2013, Escobar has gone in the other direction. His hitting is hanging in there OK, but there’s something to how poorly he’s rating on defense. He doesn’t look like the guy who was all over the place defensively in 2013.
459. Yangervis Solarte, 3B, San Diego Padres
Though he’s not an easy hitter to evaluate, there’s enough that says Solarte can hit enough to hold down a job as at least a playable everyday third baseman. But with suspect power and mediocre defense, whether he can be any better than playable is the question.
458. Jesse Winker, LF, Cincinnati Reds
Winker was viewed as a potential .300 hitter with a 10-15 home run ceiling, but his power surge, even in the hitter-friendly California League, may show that he has more power than previously believed. Winker has demonstrated more power and a better approach than was previously anticipated, and he could be a solid left fielder who hits in the middle of the lineup.
457. Maikel Franco, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
Franco projects as a run-producing, middle-of-the-order third baseman with plus power, but his approach is still a work in progress and will require refinement in future seasons. His contact skills will eventually serve as a strength but not before he can develop a better feel for the zone and utilize the entire field.
456. Collin Cowgill, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Exactly how much value Cowgill can provide with his bat is a fair question, as he’s mainly a ground-ball hitter who’s only effective against lefties. But at the least, he can provide very good defense in both left and right field with some solid work on the basepaths on the side.
455. Gregor Blanco, OF, San Francisco Giants
Blanco's hitting, baserunning and defense have all seen better days, making him out to be less than a stud bench player. But as long as he can offer a good eye against righties, occasional power and at least passable defense in center and left field, he'll have enough to stick around.
454. Cameron Maybin, CF, San Diego Padres
Maybin is no longer the center fielder he was in 2011, when he boosted his value with strong hitting, power, baserunning and defense. But at the very least, he still has a decent glove to offer. Given that he plays a premium defensive position, that's worth something.
453. Jordy Mercer, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
The real surprise this season has been Mercer’s defense, as more regular playing time has given him the chance to show what he can do with the glove. But while his defense is strong, he’s merely passable as a hitter and as a baserunner.
452. Brad Ziegler, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Though Ziegler’s become more walk- and homer-prone, this season has hardly been a lost one for him. He’s still among the best at keeping his pitches low and getting ground balls, and the way in which his slider has become a legit swing-and-miss pitch is a welcome sight.
451. Aaron Hill, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Though it’s probably not as bad as it looks due to how many line drives he’s hit and how his power production doesn’t seem to mirror his actual power, it’s still not good. In just a couple of years, Hill has gone from a star-level second baseman to a guy who barely passes for a viable regular.
Nos. 450-401: Conger-Asche
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450. Hank Conger, C, Los Angeles Angels
With his hitting inconsistent and his power dried up, Conger has essentially been a one-talent player in 2014. But since that one talent involves some of the best receiving skills in the game, he deserves our attention.
449. Wilin Rosario, C, Colorado Rockies
We can say that Rosario’s power hasn’t regressed as much as it first appears, so he still has that going for him. Still, his bat comes with more question marks than ever, and what’s been suspect defense for a while now is still, well, suspect.
448. Oscar Taveras, RF, St. Louis Cardinals
Suffice it to say Taveras hasn’t taken to the majors like a duck to water. He’s shown flashes, but they’ve really only been flashes. Yet at the very least, it’s a good sign that he hasn’t been completely overmatched at the plate, showing off an ability to make contact and also a quiet ability to drive the ball.
447. Chris Heisey, LF, Cincinnati Reds
Don’t go running to Heisey if you want a guy with a consistent bat. But if you want a guy with some legit pull power, solid baserunning skills and a good glove for all three outfield positions, he’s not a bad choice.
446. Michael Bourn, CF, Cleveland Indians
Bourn is still capable of putting together quality at-bats and of delivering some occasional power. But he was at his best when he had elite speed to offer on the basepaths and in center field. Thanks to age and injuries, that elite speed is no longer there.
445. Steve Cishek, RP, Miami Marlins
The best thing you’re going to see when you watch Cishek is his command, be it with his sinker or slider. And when he’s on, his ability to locate and mix those pitches leads to soft contact. This said, he hasn’t been as impressive at missing bats as his high strikeout rate suggests, and he’s not as hard to hit as he used to be.
444. Rafael Soriano, RP, WAS Nationals
It should go without saying that Soriano’s best days are behind him. He no longer has the stuff to blow away hitters, and his second-half hittability is more realistic than his first-half hittability. But he’s done himself a favor by mixing up his heat and slider more, and his ability to locate does him plenty of favors.
443. Wil Myers, RF, Tampa Bay Rays
It’s been a lost season for the 2013 AL Rookie of the Year. In addition to his broken wrist, Myers has struggled with his hitting and fielding. That leaves just his talent to trust in. To that end, it's a good thing he has the whole "2013 AL Rookie of the Year" thing going for him.
442. Jake Diekman, RP, Philadelphia Phillies
Issue can be taken with Diekman’s control and hittability, and rightfully so knowing that both have been weaknesses against right-handed batters. Outside of those weaknesses, however, lies one of the best fastball-slider combinations possessed by any reliever in the league. And most of the time it works.
441. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Miami Marlins
Saltalamacchia has upped his walk habit and kept the good power coming, but his bat hasn’t been nearly as consistent as it was in his career 2013 season. He’s also little more than a warm body behind the plate, as he has issues throwing out runners and struggles mightily to frame pitches.
440. Kelvin Herrera, RP, Kansas City Royals
Herrera has had little trouble getting results, largely because his stuff is overpowering enough to make up for his shortcomings. Since he’s still only 24, that should continue to be the case for a while still. But make no mistake: Those shortcomings exist, and they’re keeping him from being a truly excellent reliever.
439. Devon Travis, 2B, Detroit Tigers
Travis’ wide range of tools and skills give him sneaky upside as an everyday player in The Show, and he’s now surpassed expectations during his time at each full-season level. However, with Ian Kinsler blocking his path in Detroit, it wouldn’t be surprising if Travis’ first crack at the major leagues came with another team.
438. Tyler Naquin, CF, Cleveland Indians
Naquin is more of a high-floor than high-ceiling prospect, but there's certainly nothing wrong with a potential everyday center fielder who can do a little of everything.
437. Jean Machi, RP, San Francisco Giants
You’re going to see an awful lot of splitters when Machi is on the mound, and why not? Though he’s not quite elite at all three, he can use it to find the strike zone, miss bats and get ground balls. That’s a pretty effective formula for a signature pitch, and it serves him well.
436. David Carpenter, RP, Atlanta Braves
He’s not especially tough to square up, but that doesn’t necessarily make Carpenter a bad reliever. When his number is called, he’s going to come in and attack the strike zone and miss enough bats along the way to escape unscathed more often than not.
435. Sean Rodriguez, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays
The kind of approach Rodriguez has trotted out in 2014 has no business being featured on a regular basis. But at least that approach has been effective in turning him into a legit power threat off the bench, and there’s value in how his glove can be put pretty much anywhere on the diamond.
434. Didi Gregorius, SS, AZ Diamondbacks
Exactly how Kevin Towers saw a young Derek Jeter in Gregorius is still a mystery, as his time in the majors has done plenty to reveal the various holes in his hitting. But as a guy who can offer some solid power, baserunning and defense, he’s not worth giving up on just yet.
433. John Jaso, C, Oakland A's
Though Jaso’s walk habit is missed and his hitting fails to impress, you have to appreciate how he’s kept the power coming. That helps make up for his defense too, which is weak from blocking, throwing and receiving standpoints.
432. Adam Lind, DH, Toronto Blue Jays
If you want a guy who can hit right-handed pitching, Lind is one of the better choices you’re going to come across. He sees them well, and they don’t really have anything to get him out with. Just be warned that his power's best days are likely behind him at this point.
431. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox
You can go back to early June to find a time when Bogaerts was not only living up to the hype but surpassing it. But then the league found his weaknesses, and he’s done nothing to patch that up while playing subpar defense. The potential is still there, but it’s clear he’s further away from reaching it than it first appeared.
430. Santiago Casilla, RP, SF Giants
Casilla has never pitched like a guy who actually deserves to have sub-3.00 ERAs in each of the last five seasons, as he’s wild and less than overpowering. His ability to get ground balls and generally induce soft contact, however, is no joke.
429. Jeremy Affeldt, RP, San Francisco Giants
Affeldt doesn’t throw as hard or locate the zone as well as he did even as recently as a couple of years ago, but he’s still an asset in relief. His ability to keep the ball low allows him to avoid disaster, and he’s the man to call on if a ground ball is needed in a pinch.
428. Danny Farquhar, RP, Seattle Mariners
The league has adjusted a bit to Farquhar after he blew hitters away in 2013—his first full season—but it still doesn’t totally have his number. His command is improving, he still has the stuff to miss bats and his sheer variety of pitches doesn’t make it especially easy to hit him hard.
427. Mark Trumbo, LF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Trumbo has only ever had one good tool: his power. Alas, that tool hasn’t been seen that much in 2014 thanks to the left foot injury he suffered early in the season. In light of that, it’s even harder to anticipate him being a better player than he was before.
426. Carlos Gonzalez, LF, Colorado Rockies
This score is definitely low for a player of CarGo’s caliber. But after the kind of season he just went through, this score is actually going out on a limb that he can make a comeback. He has some serious talent, but he spent 2014 dealing with all sorts of serious issues that were compounded by serious health problems.
425. Drew Storen, RP, Washington Nationals
Storen’s sub-2.00 ERA makes him look a lot more overpowering than he really is, as he doesn’t miss many bats and isn’t an especially good command artist either. But there’s at least no denying that he’s a much-improved pitcher over the one we saw in 2013, if for no other reason than he’s simply learned how to pitch.
424. Fernando Rodney, RP, Seattle Mariners
Even without good command, Rodney still has the velocity and the sinker/changeup combination to overpower hitters. But with his velocity not what it once was and his stuff having a slightly harder time missing the sweet spots of bats, be warned that lesser dominance may be ahead.
423. Nick Kingham, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Kingham doesn’t have the ceiling of fellow right-handers Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon, but his deep arsenal and ability to eat innings give him a high floor as a No. 3 or 4 starter—a ceiling he may reach sooner rather than later.
422. Micah Johnson, 2B, Chicago White Sox
Johnson still has some holes offensively and defensively and will need to become a more efficient base stealer, but the improvements he’s made over the last two seasons speak to his promising future in the major leagues.
421. D.J. Peterson, 3B, Seattle Mariners
Peterson may not remain at third base long term, but his bat, specifically his potential to hit for both average and power, is good enough to support a move to first base. It shouldn’t be long until the 22-year-old becomes a fixture in the heart of the Mariners’ batting order.
420. J.A. Happ, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Happ’s velocity is trending upward to a point where he’s now sitting in the 92-93 mph range, and he’s still a guy who you can bank on for around 100 pitches. But improved velocity hasn’t made Happ any tougher to hit, and that’s true whether you’re talking contact or hard-hit balls. So despite there being hope in his increasing velocity, he still looks like a mere back-end innings-eater.
419. Chris Taylor, SS, Seattle Mariners
It’s admittedly too early to have a true sense of what kind of hitter Taylor is going to be in the majors, but one thing we know well enough for now is that his range gives him the potential to be a really effective defender at short. And really good defenders at short are, of course, pretty valuable players.
418. Brad Miller, SS, Seattle Mariners
It’s easy to focus on Miller’s batting numbers, and they don’t lie. He is that out of his depth as a hitter, and he is arguably unplayable for that. The only reason we say “arguably” is because he at least has good power and a decent glove for the position.
417. Rougned Odor, 2B, Texas Rangers
The Rangers have gotten a pretty good look at Odor, and it hasn’t been all bad. His power has played fairly well, and he’s shown flashes of potential on defense and on the basepaths. But his bat needs some serious tweaking to be ready for MLB pitching, and in general he’s still more about potential than anything else.
416. Alejandro De Aza, LF, Baltimore Orioles
His 2013 power surge has ended, and his baserunning is just OK, but turning De Aza into a platoon left fielder has worked out reasonably well. He hits right-handers better than his numbers suggest, and he’s a better defender in left than he was in center.
415. Francisco Rodriguez, RP, MIL Brewers
There’s no looking past the home run problem K-Rod has developed. It’s bad, and it’s showing no signs of improving. But it shouldn’t overrule everything else he’s done this season. He’s worked the edges quite well and continued to use his changeup to beautiful effect.
414. Omar Infante, 2B, Kansas City Royals
Infante hasn’t hit, hit for power, run the bases or played defense as well as his track record suggested he would. But given the specific cracks Infante has had in his game this year, that track record may no longer be relevant. He’s at the right age for a decline, 32, and it seems to have begun.
413. Welington Castillo, C, Chicago Cubs
Castillo’s bat has declined from where it was in 2013 for good reasons, though one thing that hasn’t been so bad is the power he’s shown. He’ll need to keep that coming in 2015, as his bat must make up for defense that’s limited by what’s been very poor receiving in 2014.
412. Jeurys Familia, RP, New York Mets
You can look at how Familia has struggled to rack up strikeouts and limit walks and conclude he’s just another reliever. But he’s more overpowering than his strikeout rate suggests, and his ability to get ground balls and limit hard contact makes him a tough guy to face.
411. Casey Fien, RP, Minnesota Twins
Fien’s about as tough to notice this year as he was in 2013, if not more so due to the difficulties he’s had getting strikeouts. But his excellent command gives him a good margin for error, and he can still be counted on to at least get some swinging strikes while mixing in pop-ups. Basically, he’s better than he looks.
410. Eric Young Jr., LF, New York Mets
Young’s bat isn’t much to speak of. His approach is sound, but he’s not actually that effective at hitting the ball or hitting for power. It’s a good thing he has speed in abundance and that he can use it both on the basepaths and in left field.
409. Adam Dunn, DH, Oakland A's
Whether this will be Dunn’s last season is something we won’t know for sure until it’s all over. You have to figure there’s at least a decent chance it will be. But if he does come back for one more season, whoever picks him up will get pretty much the same walk and home run merchant he’s always been.
408. Jed Lowrie, SS, Oakland A's
Even with the question marks that have emerged this season, there’s little question that Lowrie’s a better hitter than he’s shown. But since he’s a poor baserunner and an iffy defender, he’s more of a hitter playing shortstop than a shortstop with a good bat.
407. Kevin Jepsen, RP, Los Angeles Angels
Jepsen always threw hard enough to be a shutdown reliever. What’s finally made him one this year, however, is him ceasing to put so much trust on his heat and more trust in not one but two different slow offerings. The results have been quite impressive.
406. Dominic Leone, RP, Seattle Mariners
There’s no shortage of talented arms in the Mariners bullpen, and along has come Leone to show that he fits pretty well with them. His command needs work, but his mix of nasty stuff makes him a tough guy to square up and hit.
405. Mike Morse, LF, San Francisco Giants
That Morse is as useless as he is running the basepaths and playing the field puts a pretty big cap on his ability to rack up value. But we probably give him too much grief about his bat. Wild swinger though he may be, he could be a lot worse at squaring the ball up.
404. Ken Giles, RP, Philadelphia Phillies
Giles has a classic mix of a hard fastball and a nasty slider that so many strikeout relievers before him have possessed, and it looks like he’s going to have little trouble following in their footsteps. What’s more up in the air going forward is how sound his command can be and how he’s going to limit contact.
403. Shelby Miller, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Miller still throws 93-94 mph and hasn’t lost his ability to get hitters to pop out. His arm is still alive, which means there’s hope. It’s too bad his fastball command has devolved into him living in the middle of the zone, and he has yet to come up with an excuse to make hitters look for anything other than heat. His arm may still be alive, but his approach needs some serious tweaking.
402. A.J. Cole, SP, Washington Nationals
Cole’s ability to pump strikes with his impressive fastball has fueled his rise through the minor leagues, but he won’t be able to get away with just the one pitch in The Show. Therefore, he’ll need to improve his breaking ball and changeup in order to avoid a long-term bullpen role.
401. Cody Asche, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
Asche has had to deal with some growing pains in his first full tour through the bigs, showing holes in his bat and limited power. But if it’s the bright side you’re looking for, he hasn’t been totally overmatched at the dish, and we probably haven’t seen his best defense yet.
Nos. 400-351: Moustakas-Panik
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400. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals
A lot of work needs to be done to get Moustakas’ bat even to the level of passable. Until that work is completed, he’s going to be a frustratingly inconsistent hitter. But because he has some power to offer with at least average defense at third base, Moustakas can be at least a playable regular at the hot corner.
399. Matt Joyce, LF, Tampa Bay Rays
There are some faults in Joyce’s bat, and his power is declining, but he’s still of use as a platoon player. He sees right-handers very well, and he can play decent, if not quite great, defense in left field.
398. Luke Gregerson, RP, Oakland A's
Gregerson has just kept on being one of the steadiest setup men in the business in 2014, using strong command and a more hard-heavy approach to give hitters a different look. The question going forward will be if the cracks that are already there will spread, and how much.
397. Brett Cecil, RP, Toronto Blue Jays
Cecil doesn’t always know where the ball is going when he takes the mound, and his outings can be adventurous as a result. So it’s a good thing he at least has his stuff figured out. Between his increasingly hard fastball and nasty curveball, he doesn't have much trouble overwhelming hitters.
396. Jenrry Mejia, RP, New York Mets
It looks like Mejia has found a home as a closer. Though his command still needs work and batted balls can be adventurous, he’s not exactly weak in either of those areas. And between his cutter, his curveball and his slider, he definitely has the stuff for the job.
395. Stephen Drew, SS, New York Yankees
The long wait to start playing in 2014 has done a number on Drew’s bat, and his baserunning has been negatively impacted as well. It’s a good thing he’s shown he can still play a good shortstop while at least offering some power at the plate.
394. Josh Hamilton, LF, Los Angeles Angels
Hamilton’s 2014 season hasn’t been completely without bright sides, but he still looks like a shell of the hitter he used to be. His bat still has holes in it, and his power is fading. At the rate he’s going, he’s really not much more than a playable outfielder. And that’s when he’s healthy, which isn't often.
393. Oswaldo Arcia, RF, Minnesota Twins
Arcia’s hitting is a mess, and his defense in right field is lacking, but he does have one tool that looks very strong: his power. It’s been impressive in a little more than half a season and should be even more impressive over a full season.
392. Yusmeiro Petit, RP, San Francisco Giants
For the record, yes, there’s a strong case for Petit to be in the starting pitcher rankings instead of the relief pitcher rankings. But he’s spent the bulk of his time as a reliever in 2014, and it’s really where he’s done his best work. If he ends up in the pen again in 2015, the Giants can expect to keep getting his special blend of command and surprising whiffability.
391. Cody Allen, RP, Cleveland Indians
His command is lacking, and it’s not overly difficult to hit him, but Allen’s an example of how relievers can make up for their shortcomings if one of their strengths is missing bats. And as long as he has his hard fastball and outstanding curveball, continuing to do that shouldn’t be a problem.
390. David Robertson, New York Yankees
The best thing Robertson has done this season is increase his trust in his curveball, allowing him to pick up more swinging strikes and strikeouts. Outside of that, though, he’s actually taken some steps back with his command and hittability. It’s a good thing even a lesser version of Robertson is still a darn good pitcher.
389. Kyle Zimmer, SP, Kansas City Royals
The sky is the limit for Zimmer if he can just stay healthy. Over two-plus years in the minors, his rash of injuries rather than on-field success has unfortunately defined the right-hander’s development. While he still has time on his side, Zimmer’s checkered medical history offers reason to question his overall potential.
388. Eddie Butler, SP, Colorado Rockies
Butler was poised to spend a majority of the season in the Rockies' starting rotation before suffering a shoulder injury. He still has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter at maturity, but he’ll now have to answer questions next season about his durability and ability to miss bats.
387. Jake Lamb, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Lamb flies under the radar in terms of third base prospects, but his tools and advanced skills on both sides of the ball have helped him achieve an everyday role in the major leagues. The 23-year-old will go through some growing pains due to his overall lack of professional experience, but he’ll also be given every chance to succeed as the Diamondbacks’ potential long-term third baseman.
386. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Regardless of where he ends up defensively, Seager’s bat will have him hitting in the middle of a big league lineup sooner rather than later. To put it simply, the 20-year-old rakes, and the fact that his production has translated at the Double-A level, outside the hitter-friendly California League, during the second half has only further confirmed his status as a top-tier prospect.
385. Gordon Beckham, 2B, LA Angels
Beckham’s not the hitter he pretended to be in 2013, as he’s gone back to having all sorts of flaws in his approach and his ability to make good contact. But if you want a guy who can provide some occasional power and play a better second base than the metrics suggest, you could do worse than him.
384. Rubby De La Rosa, SP, Boston Red Sox
It’s clear that De La Rosa has work to do to get his fastball command up to speed, especially against lefties. And though his fastball/changeup combination looks pretty, it’s not as great at getting whiffs as it should be. So it’s a good thing De La Rosa has shown he can get ground balls when he’s on, and it’s further encouraging that he’s been able to hold his velocity well in games.
383. Yonder Alonso, 1B, San Diego Padres
Whether Alonso can maintain this year’s power outburst is a question mark going forward, and not the only one concerning his bat. But the approach he has at the plate is worth something, and so are his baserunning and defensive skills.
382. Adeiny Hechavarria, SS, Miami Marlins
Right now, Hechavarria is a shortstop with a suspect bat and an inconsistent glove, realistically making him barely a viable regular. Fortunately, he’s getting better rather than worse. In particular, here’s thinking we haven’t seen his best defense yet.
381. Jean Segura, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Not much has gone right for Segura in 2014, and in the process the various shortcomings in his game have been revealed. It’s not as hopeless as it looks, though. He still has a steady mix of pop and speed, and he has an approach to hitting that makes a sudden rush of good luck a legit possibility.
380. Joe Kelly, SP, Boston Red Sox
With a fastball that sits in the 94-95 range, there’s no question Kelly has a live arm. He also has a sinker that’s good for getting ground balls, and mixing in his four-seamer more has helped him get more pop-ups. But until he improves his fastball command and/or develops a reliable option for missing bats, he’s not going to be anything more than an intriguing back-end rotation option.
379. Jordan Lyles, SP, Colorado Rockies
Going heavier on hard stuff has helped Lyles find the zone more consistently than he did in 2013, and his sinker is still a very strong ground-ball pitch. But since his command is still far from on point and he hasn’t completely ditched his problems with home runs and hard contact, he doesn’t look like anything better than a viable back-end starter.
378. Sam Fuld, OF, Oakland A's
Fuld is only good enough to be a part-time player—and not even an ideal one due to his even platoon splits. But if you're looking for a guy who can put together some quality at-bats, run the bases and play an energetic center field, he's your huckleberry.
377. Chris Iannetta, C, Los Angeles Angels
Iannetta’s had a fine season from an offensive standpoint, but there are enough cracks in his hitting to make you wonder if it’s repeatable. His power also isn’t without question marks, and his defense is dubious as well due to iffy throwing and more-than-iffy receiving.
376. Jedd Gyorko, 2B, San Diego Padres
Because of how much Gyorko’s season has been wrecked by health troubles, it’s admittedly hard to nitpick the various flaws he’s shown. So let’s focus on the positives instead: It says a lot that even an injured Gyorko is still a powerful Gyorko, and he’s made some real improvements to his approach that could serve him well in the future.
375. Hector Rondon, RP, Chicago Cubs
Rondon’s not really as good as he’s looked since the All-Star break, but the Cubs definitely do have something in him. Any guy who can pound the zone with a solid fastball-slider combination is going to succeed in a relief role more often than not, and he fits the bill very well.
374. Ender Inciarte, CF, AZ Diamondbacks
Inciarte has shortcomings when he has a bat in his hand, and his baserunning hasn't fully lived up to his minor league track record. But at the least, he's been a defensive wizard in center field. Guys like that can be valuable no matter what else they can do.
373. Arismendy Alcantara, CF, Chicago Cubs
Alcantara needs plenty of work before his hitting is up to par, and all he really has working for him in center field is his athleticism. But athleticism in center field can be enough, and his mix of power and speed is a good fit for the position.
372. Justin Turner, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Yes, Turner’s production this season is too good to be true. But he does deserve credit for how it hasn’t happened entirely by accident. That he can play a solid third base is just part of his overall defensive versatility.
371. Casey McGehee, 3B, Miami Marlins
McGehee was one of the pleasant surprises of the first half of the season, going into the All-Star Game with a .319 average. But while his approach to hitting is sound, that average was built too much on good luck. And aside from that, McGehee offers subpar power, baserunning and defense.
370. Ryan Braun, RF, Milwaukee Brewers
The best way to put it is that Braun looks broken. He’s not an asset on the basepaths or in the outfield, and that bad right hand of his has done a number on his hitting and could continue to do so going forward. The only positive thing to say is that lesser hitting from Braun should still be at least solid hitting.
369. Robert Stephenson, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Stephenson’s athleticism and arm strength suggest front-of-the-rotation potential, but he’ll need to improve his command and refine his changeup to remain a starter long term. The good news is the 21-year-old is still young and will be given ample time to address those issues.
368. Jose Peraza, 2B, Atlanta Braves
The Braves put Peraza on the fast track to the major leagues this season, and it’s easy to see why given the youngster’s tremendous speed, feel for the game and excellent makeup. He has the potential to be a first-division second baseman and should form one of the best double-play combos in the game with shortstop Andrelton Simmons possibly as early as mid-2015.
367. Stephen Piscotty, RF, St. Louis Cardinals
Piscotty’s hit tool and solid defense will get him to the major leagues in 2015, but it will be his development of consistent in-game power that will ultimately determine whether he becomes more than a fourth outfielder at the highest level.
366. Tommy La Stella, 2B, Atlanta Braves
La Stella definitely looks like he has the bat for the big leagues, as there’s plenty to like about the way he strings at-bats together and the way in which he targets the opposite field. But without much power, baserunning or defense, a good bat is only so valuable.
365. Dillon Gee, SP, New York Mets
Gee was sidelined for two months with a bad shoulder, the second time in three years his health has betrayed him. When he's been able to pitch, his command has been iffy—particularly his in-zone fastball command—and he’s had a hard time missing bats. But he’s also shown he hasn’t lost his ability to manipulate contact by mixing his pitches, and he’s hardly been hopeless as an innings-eater.
364. A.J. Burnett, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
This is assuming Burnett returns to play another season, which, as CSN Philly's Jim Salisbury notes, he’s hinted is possible. Going off what’s happened this season, he should still be able to eat innings if he does come back. There’s value in a guy who can do that. But unless Burnett fixes the control problems he’s had this year while also finding some lost velocity and avoiding hard contact, eating innings could be the extent of his contributions.
363. Zack Cozart, SS, Cincinnati Reds
It’s only becoming clearer that Cozart is little more than a low-.200s hitter, and it’s not a good look that pitchers seem to have figured out how to avoid his power. But when you can run the bases reasonably well while playing plus defense at short, you can hold your own as a solid regular.
362. Pedro Alvarez, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
The 2014 season has been a lost year for Alvarez. It’s hard to knock him for the efforts he’s made to become a more consistent hitter, but in the process, he’s robbed himself of the power that made him a worthwhile player in the first place. Then there’s his defense, which has gone from being a problem at third base to a question mark at first base.
361. Daniel Nava, OF, Boston Red Sox
Nava being a switch-hitter is a bit of a tease given that he’s only useful from the left side, and it’s not the best look that his power has dried up. But because he can put together good at-bats and is quietly a talented baserunner and defender, he’s a pretty good player.
360. Josh Willingham, LF, Kansas City Royals
Willingham really only has two things to offer: patience and power. Fortunately, he’s very good at the first and still solid enough at the second. As such, he has enough to make up for the reality that running the bases and playing defense are not his specialties.
359. Torii Hunter, RF, Detroit Tigers
As aggressive as his approach has become, Hunter can still hit and hit for some power. He can also still run the bases reasonably well. He just can’t do these things quite well enough to make up for his horrid right field defense.
358. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Colorado Rockies
Blackmon’s early-season breakout happened a long time ago, and it’s hard not to notice how he’s as much or more of a product of Coors Field as the next Rockies hitter. But because he can run the bases, hit for a little power and at least play passable defense in left and right field, he’s hardly useless.
357. Tyler Flowers, C, Chicago White Sox
Flowers has some good power to offer, and he has the ability to slow down the opposition’s running game. But his receiving skills need some refining, and the work he’s put in to make his hitting more consistent isn’t enough. He’s still too wild a swinger who hits nothing but air too often.
356. Odrisamer Despaigne, SP, SD Padres
The scouting report on Despaigne has gotten around by now, but it’s still hard not to be intrigued with his pitching style. Though not very efficiently, he throws a lot of different pitches, and pretty much all of them move. A few of them are also good for getting ground balls, and the combination of them all can lead to generally weak contact. He's good enough for a back-end type.
355. Pedro Strop, RP, Chicago Cubs
The downsides of Strop involve living with occasional walks and hard-hit balls as well as velocity that’s declining from its peak. But it also means living with arguably the most unhittable slider thrown by any reliever and a sinker that can get ground balls. That’s a fair trade.
354. Carlos Ruiz, C, Philadelphia Phillies
The more disciplined approach Ruiz has shown off in 2014 has worked wonders, but his bat isn’t without red flags, and his power looks like it’s drying up with age. And through Ruiz is strong at blocking pitches and controlling the running game, his receiving just isn’t very good.
353. Martin Prado, 3B, New York Yankees
Prado has fallen on hard times since he was quietly one of the better players in the league in 2012, largely because his bat is weakening as he ages. That bat is still passable, though, and Prado’s strong defense at third base is probably better than what the Yankees stand to get from A-Rod (who will not appear in these rankings) next year.
352. Glen Perkins, RP, Minnesota Twins
If for no other reason than he still assaults the strike zone with an effective slider in his back pocket, Perkins is still an outstanding reliever. But with his fastball having already lost velocity and becoming more hittable as a result, he’s not without red flags moving forward.
351. Joe Panik, 2B, San Francisco Giants
I’ve done my best to acknowledge the ability Panik has shown without getting too excited about it because of the small sample size. But if he at least holds onto his solid approach, hits fastballs on the nose and plays a capable second base, he’ll be the answer the Giants need at the position.
Nos. 350-301: Shipley-Maldonado
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350. Braden Shipley, SP, AZ Diamondbacks
The polish Shipley has shown in 2014 has been a pleasant surprise, especially considering his overall lack of experience on the bump. He still requires considerable projection for that same reason, but it isn’t difficult to envision the 22-year-old developing into a high-end No. 3 starter.
349. Aaron Blair, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Blair doesn’t have huge upside like fellow D-Backs right-handers Archie Bradley and Shipley, but there’s a good chance he will realize his potential and carve out a solid career as a mid-rotation starter.
348. Michael Taylor, CF, WAS Nationals
Taylor has all the tools to be an impact everyday center fielder in the major leagues. However, at 23, he’s still an unrefined player who has more natural ability than usable baseball skills. That said, he’s still 23 and has shown slow but steady improvement while moving through the Nationals' system.
347. Chi Chi Gonzalez, SP, Texas Rangers
Gonzalez lacks a high ceiling, but I wouldn’t put it past him to blow past all expectations regarding his potential, especially when considering his overwhelming success this year in his first full season. He’ll have a spot waiting for him in the Rangers' rotation once he’s ready.
346. Henry Owens, SP, Boston Red Sox
Owens still projects as more of a mid-rotation starter than staff ace due to his lack of a dominant pitch and slightly below-average command. But there’s still something to be said for his ability to miss bats during an accelerated rise through the minor leagues.
345. Aaron Sanchez, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Sanchez was rushed up the ladder this year due to the Blue Jays’ struggles in the major leagues; it certainly wasn’t because he was ready from a developmental standpoint. If he’s going to start for the club long term, he’d benefit from more time in the minors to refine his command.
344. Dylan Bundy, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Bundy reached the major leagues during his 2012 full-season debut, but Tommy John surgery cost the right-hander more than a year of developmental time. He still has the ceiling of a front-of-the-rotation starter, but he still has a ways to go before returning to his pre-surgery form.
343. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
Correa is a physically blessed player with present plus makeup and the potential for five average-or-better tools at maturity, and he’s still on the fast track to the major leagues despite the ankle injury. In general, the 20-year-old has one of the highest ceilings in the minors, with the potential to be a perennial All-Star and possibly even an MVP candidate in his prime.
342. Edinson Volquez, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Volquez is still prone to wildness, and his ability to miss bats is on a clear downward trend. But while that’s a bad combination, the Pirates actually have tightened up Volquez’s command to a point where it’s at least passable, and his sinker is once again a source of ground balls. He’s still not a good pitcher, but for now he’s at least a viable rotation option.
341. Ricky Nolasco, SP, Minnesota Twins
Nolasco hasn't been able to miss bats like he did in 2013, in part because his splitter hasn’t been nearly as effective. He’s also paid dearly for throwing so many hittable fastballs. On top of all this, there was his absence with an elbow injury. But because he still mixes his pitches well and is able to avoid issuing walks, Nolasco isn’t completely lost as a pitcher. Some sort of rebound is in order for 2015.
340. B.J. Upton, CF, Atlanta Braves
Upton’s best hitting, power, baserunning and defense are clearly behind him. Because of that, he is indeed a subpar player. But with that said, 2014 hasn’t been as big a disaster as 2013. He’s been a little better at the plate, has become a solid baserunner again and isn’t the defensive issue the metrics say he is.
339. Alex Rios, RF, Texas Rangers
Rios doesn’t do anything well anymore, but he doesn’t really do anything that poorly either. He can still handle the bat and provide some power, and he can hold his own on the basepaths and in right field. He’s not a good player anymore, but he’s at least playable.
338. Kurt Suzuki, C, Minnesota Twins
The improvements Suzuki’s made with his hitting are absolutely worth noting, as he’s turned himself into one of the game’s top contact hitters. But he doesn’t have much power to offer, and his defensive value is hit hard by his mediocre throwing and poor receiving.
337. Mark Reynolds, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
Reynolds is a guy who can hit you some home runs while playing a strong first base and holding his own on the basepaths. That would make him a darn good player if he was better at actually hitting the ball, but it’s pretty clear at this juncture that particular train isn’t coming.
336. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees
Teixeira still has some power and defense to offer, but both those things are shadows of what they used to be. That description doesn’t even cover it for his hitting, which looks like a lost cause. Consider all this further support for the notion that old age is stupid.
335. Darren O'Day, RP, Baltimore Orioles
O’Day’s quietly been one of the better relievers around for a while now, but we’ve witnessed him at his best yet this season. Beyond maintaining his command, mixing up his pitches a little better has allowed him to become a reliever who can miss bats and get ground balls.
334. Miguel Gonzalez, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Gonzalez has benefited from mixing up his pitches in 2014, in particular how he’s more regularly gotten whiffs with his secondaries while making his four-seam fastball a tremendous source of pop-ups. But mixing his pitches also hasn’t made him any better at finding the zone, and he still hasn’t solved his home run problem. As such, he still has improvements to make.
333. Bud Norris, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Norris came into 2014 with a reputation as an innings-eater, and it still holds. He’s also benefited from more velocity, which has had a hand in him keeping fly balls from traveling too far. But there’s also been some overachieving going on. Norris has succeeded despite his slider continuing to decline as a whiff pitch, and he hasn’t felt the effects of a big increase in contact as much as he should have.
332. Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati Reds
The term “lost season” definitely applies with Bruce. He had to go in for surgery on his left knee early on and frankly has paid the price for rushing back from it. Still, it’s a silver lining that he’s at least been a solid power producer and baserunner, and you have to figure that other things won’t continue to be as awful.
331. Taijuan Walker, SP, Seattle Mariners
A strong case can be made that Walker is the most projectable pitching prospect out there thanks to his special combination of athleticism and stuff as well as his capacity to make adjustments. A shoulder injury delayed his breakthrough, but it’s safe to say the right-hander’s bright future isn't far from being realized.
330. Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants
Cain's third trip to the disabled list ended his 2014 season. But he will be ready to go for spring training, and it actually wouldn’t be the worst thing if the Giants end up getting something similar to the 2014 Cain. Amid all his struggles, he still rode a four-seam-light approach to a career-high ground-ball rate while actually finding the zone more than he had since 2010.
329. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF, Boston Red Sox
In his first (somewhat) full season as a major leaguer, Bradley has shown that he can’t hit, hit for power or run the bases especially well. But since he’s on a shortlist of candidates for the title of best defensive center fielder in baseball, don’t downplay him as a capable major league player.
328. Zach Duke, RP, Milwaukee Brewers
It’s easy to look at a guy like Duke and conclude that he’s just another LOOGY. But he’s more than that. There aren’t many relievers who keep the ball low like he does, and any reliever who can get whiffs and ground balls like he can is going to be effective no matter who’s standing in the box.
327. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
It feels like Lawrie had a lost season, and there is some truth to that knowing how much he battled with injuries and struggled to be consistent at the dish. But it’s good that he revived his power, continued to run the bases well and played some solid defense. He’s no star, but he’s at least playable.
326. Shin-Soo Choo, LF, Texas Rangers
In just a few short months, Choo has gone from one of the jewels of the free-agent class to a lesser hitter who may now be damaged goods. But at the very least, one thing he still has going forward is his terrific batting eye and solid opposite-field power. Those aren’t bad consolation prizes.
325. Hector Santiago, SP, Los Angeles Angels
Santiago’s neither as bad as he looked earlier nor as good as he’s looked recently. His spotty fastball command makes him prone to walks and hard-hit balls, but it also helps him get pop-ups with his curve and cutter and other catchable fly balls to the outfield. That fly-ball habit can make things interesting, though, so it’s a good thing he gets to pitch at the Big A.
324. Roenis Elias, SP, Seattle Mariners
Elias goes heavy on the changeups and curveballs, making it tough for him to hit the zone consistently and easy for hitters to sit back and wait for wayward fastballs. What allows him to survive is how his curve and change are both quite good at missing bats, and hitters surprisingly haven’t done much to solve the puzzle as the season has gone along.
323. Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
It’s not pretty. Verlander hasn’t responded to his declining velocity by sharpening up his fastball command, as he’s been a little all over the place this year. Also, all his pitches have become easier to hit and easier to elevate, and he hasn’t been able to avoid long drives. Really the only thing he has left is his ability to eat innings, and even that’s compromised now thanks to his shoulder troubles.
322. Jordan Walden, RP, Atlanta Braves
The big—and to this point unaddressed—question with Walden is how much he’s going to stay healthy. He’s been to the DL in each of the last three years and had injury issues as a minor leaguer too. But he is effective when he is healthy. Look past the control issues, and you see a guy with nasty stuff who specializes in missing bats and jamming hitters.
321. Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds
The notion that Phillips may be declining was controversial last year. It shouldn’t be this year. There are good reasons why his hitting hasn’t gotten any better, and he’s lost both power and speed. That makes defense his final standing strength, so it’s a good thing that part of his game is still fine.
320. Mookie Betts, CF, Boston Red Sox
It could be a while before Betts is a capable defender in center field, but everything else looks promising. He’s shown off an advanced approach at the plate, hit for some power and put his speed to use on the basepaths. Without getting too excited, he looks like he could be for real.
319. Jon Singleton, 1B, Houston Astros
Singleton’s power is definitely ready for the majors. There’s no doubt about that. What I’m banking on is that the experience he’s gained this year will help make him a better match for major league pitching come 2015 and that the ability he’s teased at first base might lead to increased defensive stability. If these things happen, the Houston Astros are going to have a solid first baseman on their hands.
318. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals
The good news is that Hosmer is a better baserunner than he’s shown in 2014 and a better fielder than the metrics give him credit for. But a bat that already had question marks now has even more, as his ability to make contact has been wasted largely on bad contact. That’s not an easy fix.
317. Eduardo Escobar, SS, Minnesota Twins
Escobar’s subdued score here is largely owed to how he’s overachieving at the plate while continuing to provide subpar baserunning for a shortstop. He’s not a bad power source, though, and he’s at least versatile defensively if not particularly talented. That’s a decent regular.
316. Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Chicago White Sox
There’s some potential in Gillaspie’s bat if he can keep up the adjustments he’s made this year while also cutting down on his fly balls. It’s too bad he doesn’t have much to offer outside of hitting, as his power, baserunning and defense are all at best average.
315. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
Ramirez still packs a good bat, and it’s largely because of his hitting that this score comes off as being too low. But when you look at how much his hitting approach hinges on a single talent, how his power is on thin ice and how his defense is merely adequate, one does wonder if Ramirez can repeat his 2014 performance.
314. Chris Tillman, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Tillman’s been getting results just fine in 2014, and he gets credit for cleaning up his command after a rocky start to the season. What scares me is how a dip in velocity has made his four-seamer that much easier to hit. That doesn’t craft a positive image of the future, and not just because even fewer whiffs could be in order. It could also become easier than it already is to take Tillman for a ride.
313. Nick Markakis, RF, Baltimore Orioles
The way Markakis combines discipline with a superior contact ability helps him stay consistent, and his power has made a slight comeback. He still has subpar power for a corner outfielder, however, and he doesn’t have much to offer on the basepaths or—despite his reputation—on defense.
312. Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs
Russell has the makings of an All-Star-caliber shortstop, but there’s still a sizable gap between his present ability and overall potential. He should be ready to make an impact in the major leagues at some point next season, though the Cubs first will have to determine where he’ll play given their impressive depth up the middle.
311. Noah Syndergaard, SP, New York Mets
Syndergaard has been victimized by the Pacific Coast League this year, so don’t read too far into his disappointing stats. Overall, the 22-year-old has held his own against older hitters while maintaining strong strikeout and walk rates. His command needs refinement, but the stuff and durability scream front-line starter.
310. Rajai Davis, OF, Detroit Tigers
Davis has overachieved somewhat in the power department this year, and he’s really not as capable a defender as he should be with his athleticism. But what he can do is get on base at a decent rate and then put his legs to use. The combination of those talents is worth something.
309. Gerardo Parra, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Your opinion of Parra’s 2014 season might hinge on the opinion of the defensive metrics. If you’re with me and think they’re not doing Parra’s defense proper justice, then you should view him as a very good defensive outfielder who also packs a decent bat.
308. Craig Gentry, CF, Oakland A's
There are reasons for why Gentry hasn’t been the same offensive force that he was in 2012 and 2013, and his lack of power only adds to his hitting woes. But you can still plug him in and get terrific baserunning and defense, and such things do have value.
307. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers
Andrus is still a steady everyday player, as he can hit and run the bases reasonably well while playing defense that’s better than the defensive metrics think it is. But even though we can give him that much credit, it’s hard to ignore how he’s not as effective at these things as he used to be.
306. Joakim Soria, RP, Detroit Tigers
Soria’s 2014 season hit something of a wall as soon as he arrived in Detroit, but it should still be considered a successful return to form anyway. He’s shown that he can still put the ball where he wants to, and he’s done a fine job of making up for lesser whiffability by keeping hitters off-balance.
305. Josh Collmenter, SP, AZ Diamondbacks
Predictably, the move from the bullpen to the rotation has cost Collmenter some velocity and made his cutter/changeup combination more hittable. He is generally pretty effective—especially against righties—about staying out of the fat part of the zone, however, and the majority of the fly balls he gives up don’t go very far. If the Diamondbacks keep him in the rotation in 2015, he’ll do fine as a back-end guy.
304. Andrew Miller, RP, Baltimore Orioles
Miller was quietly having a steady year in 2013 before his season came to an early end, so his success this season isn’t coming out of nowhere, especially knowing how much his fastball command has improved. And though there are some red flags with that command and his hittability, he’ll be fine as long as he at least holds on to his slider.
303. Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants
For anyone with a good memory, this is where I admit I put too much faith in Belt breaking out in a big way this year. He quickly made good on his power potential, but he also picked up some bad habits by falling in love with his power before the injuries came. The talent is still there, but the reset button needs to be pushed.
302. Rene Rivera, C, San Diego Padres
With the exception of his power, Rivera’s bat is littered with question marks ranging from iffy plate discipline to zone coverage. But he’s very much in his element defensively, adding excellent receiving skills to blocking and throwing talents.
301. Martin Maldonado, C, Milwaukee Brewers
Though finding playing time isn’t so easy for Maldonado, he can make an impact when he’s in there. He has a decent bat that has some pop in it, and his defensive skill set includes quality throwing, blocking and receiving ability.
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300. Gregory Polanco, RF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Polanco was something of an overnight sensation when he first arrived on the scene in June, but then all his shortcomings were put on display in subsequent months. Still, on the whole he’s done enough to show that his potential isn’t a total myth. Though he needs some work, he still looks like he could be a right fielder who can hit, run and field well enough.
299. Joe Mauer, 1B, Minnesota Twins
Mauer’s primary strengths can be linked to his general baseball IQ, which is still going strong. But whether it’s the lack of power or the very real cracks in his hitting, there are reasons to worry about the physical side. And though we’ve seen him bounce back from tough years before, it’s hard to count on him doing so again knowing that he’s no longer young.
298. Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox
Swihart has jumped to the top of prospect lists in 2014 behind a strong all-around season on both sides of the ball. This switch-hitter can do a little bit of everything at the plate, hitting for both average and power, and his defense should serve as a premium once he achieves the highest level.
297. Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have Nola on the fast track to the major leagues, and if all goes as planned with the right-hander’s development, he should spend most of 2015 in the team’s starting rotation. There may be some bumps in the road along the way, but Nola has a high probability of reaching his potential—and soon.
296. Daniel Norris, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Norris is one of the game’s premier left-handed pitching prospects, both in terms of present ability and overall potential. However, he’ll need to thoroughly develop his changeup to become an impact starter in the major leagues.
295. Alex Meyer, SP, Minnesota Twins
The next step in Meyer’s development is a lengthy audition in the major leagues, which should occur in early 2015 since he's on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation. There’s a realistic chance he’ll always walk too many guys, but there’s no questioning Meyer’s ability to miss bats as an impact front-end starter.
294. Archie Bradley, SP, AZ Diamondbacks
Granted he missed significant time due to injury, but Bradley’s 2014 performance has made it clear his command, particularly with his fastball, is still a work in progress. The right-hander’s overall development hasn’t progressed this season, but it hasn’t affected his ceiling of a No. 1 or 2 starter at maturity.
293. Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers
Gallo’s left-handed power rivals Kris Bryant’s from the right side, though the former doesn’t project to hit for as much average or reach base as consistently as the latter. However, he's still young and has already put up impressive numbers at advanced levels, so there’s still plenty of room for him to improve.
292. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
Even if Lindor’s bat doesn’t develop as hoped, he still has the potential to enjoy a long, successful career in the major leagues based on his defensive prowess, superb makeup and ability to control the speed of the game. However, even modest offensive production could make Lindor a perennial All-Star.
291. Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Baltimore Orioles
Schoop has a lot of problems to iron out before he can even be passable as a hitter, and his potential is going to be very much limited until he does. But because he can hit for some power and play some very strong defense at second base, he’s a much more viable regular than his poor hitting indicates.
290. Dan Haren, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
The slight velocity revival Haren experienced in 2013 hasn’t repeated itself in 2014, helping to make him even more hittable than he already was. And looking ahead to his age-34 season, no, that velocity likely isn’t coming back. He can still eat innings and put together the occasional good outing, however, and those should keep being possible as long as he can keep living on the edges with his hard stuff.
289. Scott Van Slyke, OF, LA Dodgers
Though Van Slyke has probably been a little too productive this year, he’s at least established himself as a good guy to have around for his ability to crush lefties, provide some power and play passable defense at two positions.
288. Jeremy Guthrie, SP, Kansas City Royals
Living with Guthrie still means living with the constant threat of home runs, as he’s still a fly-ball pitcher who asks for trouble by living in the middle of the zone. But hey, he’s still a source of innings, and his increasing trust in his changeup is helping him limit the damage with whiffs and ground balls. He’s only a back-end guy, but he’s one of the better back-end guys you’re going to find.
287. Scott Feldman, SP, Houston Astros
The decline of Feldman’s curveball has left him without a reliable pitch to get swings and misses, and it’s also been a part of a rise in hard contact against him. It’s a good thing Feldman isn’t totally incapable of getting ground balls just yet, and he’s still a guy who’s going to give you six innings and 100 pitches when he takes the ball. That’ll have to do.
286. Drew Stubbs, CF, Colorado Rockies
It’s hard to ignore how much Stubbs’ 2014 season has been boosted by favorable circumstances, and his defense in center field hasn’t been the strength it once was. But if you’re looking for a good platoon player who can offer some power and speed, you could do a lot worse than Stubbs.
285. Angel Pagan, CF, San Francisco Giants
Pagan is still one of the better line-drive hitters you’re going to find, and age and injuries haven’t robbed him of his speed just yet. But since that speed is no longer great and what power he had is drying up, he’s trending toward becoming merely an average regular.
284. Colby Rasmus, CF, Toronto Blue Jays
Rasmus has gone from being one of the better center fielders in the league in 2013 to a broken-down mess. This should make his free agency very interesting. But because he has power for a center fielder and hasn't totally lost his ability to play the position, don’t be surprised when somebody gives him good money.
283. Corey Dickerson, LF, Colorado Rockies
Dickerson’s season doesn’t look so great if you look at what he’s done on the bases and on defense while also focusing on his home/road and lefty/righty splits. But underneath it all is a guy who really does make some pretty good contact. Maybe his bat isn't as dangerous as his numbers make it look, but it is dangerous all the same.
282. Christian Vazquez, C, Boston Red Sox
Exactly what sort of hitter Vazquez is going to be is up in the air, as he’s thus far displayed merely modest abilities and more than modest power. But his defense looks like the real deal, particularly regarding what appears to be elite throwing and receiving talents.
281. Kevin Kiermaier, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Kiermaier has only established himself as a platoon player, and one who’s overachieved offensively at that. In all likelihood, his bat isn’t going to be how he earns his checks going forward. But his glove? Oh, that glove. It’s something else.
280. Drew Hutchison, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Hutchison never was as good as he looked earlier in the season, and he’s since become what he really is: a back-end rotation guy who can be hit hard when he misses his spots. But he does have his merits, most notably a solid changeup/slider combination that help make it easier for him to throw his four-seamer past guys up in the zone. Nothing fancy, but he can execute it well enough to hold his own.
279. Tom Koehler, SP, Miami Marlins
Now that Koehler has a sinker and has increased the use of his slider, he has more to keep hitters guessing. As a result, he’s been able to help himself to more whiffs and soft contact. He still needs to sharpen up his command, however, as he’s prone to walks and high pitch counts early despite the more hard-heavy approach he’s taken in 2014.
278. Brandon Crawford, SS, SF Giants
Despite what the metrics indicate, Crawford’s defense is his best talent. He’s also a solid power threat who’s at least teasing an ability to get better. That just leaves him with some holes to fix in his hitting, which unfortunately will not be an easy process.
277. Joe Smith, RP, Los Angeles Angels
It’s easy to lose sight of Smith amid all the relievers with high velocity and swing-and-miss stuff. But he’s been a capable one for several years now, and he’s at his very best when his command involves him pounding the zone and never leaving pitches up. That’s the guy he’s been in 2014.
276. Norichika Aoki, RF, Kansas City Royals
The main attraction with Aoki is the bat control that allows him to hit for average, but he can also offer steady baserunning and defense in right field. The only thing he can't do better than most right fielders is hit for power.
275. Javier Baez, 2B, Chicago Cubs
Baez hasn’t exactly burst onto the scene looking like a finished product. His swing-and-miss problem has managed to be worse than advertised, and all around, he still looks like a bucket of tools rather than a ballplayer. But that power, man...that power...
274. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, PHI Phillies
You can count me among those who had Papelbon pegged as finished while he was mediocre-ing his way through 2013, but he’s a different pitcher now. To wit, he’s more of a pitcher, effectively mixing and locating his offerings to revive some of his old whiffability and hittability. Hats off.
273. Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
After a brilliant 2013 season, Davis has largely gone back to being what he was before his breakout. He’s a big ol’ bundle of raw power but also a guy who’s too easily fooled at a plate. There will be steady work for him as long as his power (and, to a lesser extent, his glove) is still a strength, but a return to superstardom is going to require him to do some hard work he’s already done all over again.
272. Jon Gray, SP, Colorado Rockies
The Rockies had Gray working on different things this season, such as his fastball command and ability to expand the zone with his secondary pitches, so the numbers aren’t as impressive as expected. Regardless, his season-long success in Double-A is encouraging.
271. Jorge Soler, RF, Chicago Cubs
Soler claimed the Cubs’ right field gig following his call-up, with the 22-year-old showing all five tools and an impressive overall feel for the game. If he comes close to reaching his offensive ceiling, Soler should offer All-Star-caliber production in his prime seasons, batting .270-plus with roughly 25 home runs and double-digit stolen bases from the heart of the Cubs lineup.
270. Jorge De La Rosa, SP, Colorado Rockies
Though De La Rosa still can’t be counted on for six innings due to his inefficiency, the cutter he’s incorporated has probably saved him from oblivion. In addition to giving him an extra swing-and-miss pitch to go with his splitter, it’s also joined his splitter in being a ground-ball magnet. Those two things help a pitcher survive at Coors Field, and we should all appreciate how well De La Rosa does that.
269. Peter Bourjos, CF, St. Louis Cardinals
Though irregular playing time hasn’t helped his timing, Bourjos is a better hitter than he’s looked like for much of the year. But his best asset is still his speed, and he puts it to enough use rounding the bases and playing defense to make himself a more-than-capable part-time player.
268. Caleb Joseph, C, Baltimore Orioles
Exactly how Joseph is going to fit into Baltimore’s plans when Matt Wieters returns in 2015 is uncertain. But due to the power and defensive talents he can offer, we could see him go from being a good fill-in to one of the league’s better backups.
267. Alex Avila, C, Detroit Tigers
Really, the only thing keeping Avila’s hitting afloat is his excellent batting eye, so it’s a good thing he has some quality power to offer. And even despite his iffy framing talent, he still throws and blocks well enough to pass for a capable defender behind the dish.
266. Ryan Vogelsong, SP, SF Giants
Vogelsong needs AT&T Park to be at his best, as he’s prone to line drives and fly balls and isn’t particularly good at making sure the latter stay shallow. Fortunately, he’s regained the velocity he didn’t have in an injury-marred 2013 season and has gone back to living on the corners of the zone against both lefties and righties. As a result, he’s back to being reliable.
265. Chris Owings, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Thanks to his shoulder injury, we’re still in the “getting to know you” phase with Owings. And in reality, he probably did look a little too impressive before his injury. Doubts aside, though, he does look like a shortstop who can play at least passable defense while hitting for some power and making things happen on the basepaths.
264. Chase Anderson, SP, AZ Diamondbacks
Anderson has the right idea with his fastball command, but it’s pretty clear his execution needs some work. He’s also been prone to hard contact, be it line drives or hard-hit fly balls. What makes him attractive is his changeup and curveball. Both have had an easy time missing bats, and his changeup in particular is a pretty sight. He has some things to figure out, but his stuff is definitely MLB-caliber.
263. Luis Valbuena, 3B, Chicago Cubs
It’s not wrong to regard Valbuena as a mere placeholder for Kris Bryant. That’s what he is. And no, he’s not actually as powerful as he’s shown in the second half. But he is a solid player, as his bat certainly isn’t without thunder, and he can play steady defense at a couple of positions.
262. Huston Street, RP, Los Angeles Angels
Street is having yet another season in which he’s not as overpowering as his ERA suggests. His game depends largely on locating and disrupting timing more than anything else. But you have to give the guy credit. When he’s on, he’s on. And he’s been on all year.
261. Dustin Ackley, LF, Seattle Mariners
Even with his strong second half, I wouldn’t say Ackley has put it all together yet. But at the least, his bat and power are trending in the right direction, and he’s also a solid baserunner and defender. Look for him to be a fairly well-rounded player going forward.
260. Chris Carter, DH, Houston Astros
Outside of his power, Carter has basically nothing to offer. It’s a good thing, then, that an extreme fly-ball style and extreme raw power make the power he has to offer arguably the best in the American League.
259. Kevin Gausman, SP, Baltimore Orioles
The results have been there for Gausman in his first real foray into starting at the big league level, and there’s no denying that he has the stuff (his splitter FTW!) to be an elite MLB pitcher. But he needs to get some fastball command before he can make that leap, and he’s made it clear there’s work required there.
258. Tsuyoshi Wada, SP, Chicago Cubs
There are some concerns surrounding Wada. Specifically, how much he works in the middle of the zone with his modest heat and how hitters haven’t had much trouble elevating against him. At the same time, he has one of those fastballs that looks faster than just 89-90 mph, and his slider and changeup look like potentially legit swing-and-miss offerings.
257. Aaron Harang, SP, Atlanta Braves
Leave it to the Braves to take Harang’s smoke-and-mirrors pitching and make it better. He still really only flirts with the strike zone and is still far from his old self at missing bats, but he’s throwing his sinker more and generally doing a better job of mixing his pitches. This has helped him get ground balls and dial back the problem he had with home runs in 2013.
256. DJ LeMahieu, 2B, Colorado Rockies
Until LeMahieu settles on an approach he likes and sticks with it, his hitting is going to be suspect. That he’s gone backward as a baserunner in 2014 makes that reality even tougher to swallow. But because he can play a mean second base, he can hold his own as at least a decent regular.
255. Travis Wood, SP, Chicago Cubs
It’s putting it lightly to say that Wood hasn’t been getting away with non-elite command and pitching to contact like he did in 2013. But things aren’t as bad as they look. He’s actually hitting the zone more often while still living largely on the corners, and he’s done a decent job getting pop-ups and catchable fly balls. He wasn’t as good as he looked in 2013, but he’s not as bad as he looks in 2014.
254. Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B, WAS Nationals
The holes in Cabrera’s bat are pretty real, and he can only be so good as long as they exist. But with his power and baserunning still going reasonably strong and his defensive value reinvigorated by a move to second base, he’s a better player than he was when he left Cleveland.
253. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians
It’s been a rough season for Kipnis. He’s followed up a year in which he was good at everything by being only good at one thing (running the bases). And as much as you want to believe in his talent, the cracks in his bat and defense look pretty real.
252. Brock Holt, OF, Boston Red Sox
The only thing really spectacular about Holt is that he can do a little bit of everything. He can hit a little bit, he can hit for a little bit of power, he can run the bases a little and he can play a little defense no matter where you put him. When you combine all that "little" into one thing, it looks like a lot.
251. Josh Reddick, RF, Oakland A's
Reddick is only of use against right-handed pitching, and his power likely isn’t ever returning to its 2012 level. But he still has pop to offer in addition to excellent defense in right field, so don’t be quick to disregard his value.
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250. Curtis Granderson, RF, New York Mets
We can do Granderson the courtesy of saying that his power is better than his numbers indicate and that he can play at least a solid right field with steady baserunning on the side. But his bat is still very much prone to inconsistency, and it’s hard to expect that to be fixed at this point.
249. Jarrod Dyson, CF, Kansas City Royals
Dyson is a platoon hitter with virtually no power and really only one truly impressive tool: his speed. It’s a good thing, then, that he makes the most out of his speed on the basepaths and on defense. He’s one of the game’s better sources of value in both departments.
248. Carl Crawford, LF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Crawford still doesn’t have the goods to live up to his big contract, but he really hasn’t tailed off that badly from his 2013 season. His hitting and power are hanging in there, and he’s shown he can still run the bases and play at least a decent left field.
247. Ryan Zimmerman, LF, WAS Nationals
Zimmerman’s future on defense is a good question, and you have to wonder about how his health problems are going to impact his power and baserunning going forward. It’s not all bad, though. When he’s been healthy, he showed that he can still hit and that he’s surprisingly competent in left field.
246. Ben Revere, CF, Philadelphia Phillies
Revere is an elite contact hitter who can hit for average and run the bases very well. These things make him a viable regular. But without OBP-boosting walks, power or much defense in center field, a viable regular is really all he is.
245. Dexter Fowler, CF, Houston Astros
There’s plenty to like about Fowler’s approach at the dish, and he can provide at least some power and speed. It’s how he can only provide “some” that’s disappointing, however, and Fowler’s already iffy defense isn’t getting any stronger.
244. Michael Pineda, SP, New York Yankees
No, it looks like we still can’t rely on Pineda’s shoulder. And no, he hasn’t shown the same velocity he did back in 2011. What justifies his inclusion here is how he’s attacked the strike zone, missed bats with his changeup and slider and induced a lot of soft contact when he has been able to pitch. The rest of the AL East should hope his shoulder problems aren’t over yet.
243. James Loney, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Loney hasn’t had the easiest time following up on his 2013 season, but he still resembles the player he was then. That’s a guy who knows how to handle himself at the dish and has a steady glove to offer at first base, talents that help make up for well-below-average power for a first baseman.
242. Jon Jay, CF, St. Louis Cardinals
It was an up-and-down year-and-a-half for Jay, but he’s gotten back to doing the things that helped make him a .300 hitter in 2012. Even without much power or baserunning value, that and his at least solid defense in center field combine to make him a pretty good regular.
241. James Paxton, SP, Seattle Mariners
A left shoulder injury sidelined Paxton for three months, leaving us little to judge him by. What’s there is largely positive, though. His fastball command is still a work in progress, but he’s shown he can at least stay low and get ground balls. Even better is how hitters have had no answers for his curveball. It’s all still just potential for now, but said potential looks pretty legit.
240. Jon Niese, SP, New York Mets
Health problems have continued to plague Niese, and it’s because of those that workload expectations have to be kept low. Add in how he can’t miss many bats, and his potential is limited. He can be a good study on how to pitch, though, as he’s generally effective at keeping the ball down and can induce both ground balls and medium-depth fly balls.
239. C.J. Wilson, SP, Los Angeles Angels
Though he’s tried throwing more fastballs, Wilson’s still never had more trouble hitting the zone than he’s had this year. That’s saying a lot for a guy who’s known to have iffy command, and it’s contributed to Wilson’s struggles eating innings. The better news is that he’s gone back to being a good ground-ball pitcher, and in general, his wildness and wide array of offerings make him a hard guy to square up.
238. Jesse Hahn, SP, San Diego Padres
A curveball-heavy approach and some serious movement on all his pitches make it tough for Hahn to consistently throw strikes, and efficiency eludes him because of that. But while that barrier will be tough to overcome, that hitters have a devil of a time hitting and squaring up his stuff means there’s a home for him in a big league rotation.
237. Seth Smith, LF, San Diego Padres
Smith is merely a humble platoon outfielder but also better than your garden-variety platoon outfielder. He hasn’t given righties many options for getting him out, he’s revived his power and he’s played surprisingly passable defense in both corner outfield spots.
236. Coco Crisp, CF, Oakland A's
Crisp’s best talent these days is his ability to put together terrific at-bats, which feed into his very strong on-base habit. But without the power he had in 2013 or the speed he’s had for much of his career, he can only be so much of an above-average player.
235. Michael Cuddyer, RF, Colorado Rockies
Even with the Coors Field factor noted, Cuddyer can definitely hit and hit for a little power. He’ll be a valuable player as long as he can do these things. But baserunning and defense are both question marks and likely even more so at his age and with his recent injury history.
234. CC Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees
It’s still unclear how ready Sabathia will be to pitch in 2015. And given what happened when he was healthy, banking on vintage CC making a comeback is foolery. But his early-season performance wasn’t all bad. He showed command and an ability to get ground balls, and he actually missed bats better than he did in 2013. If he can stay healthy, Sabathia may still have some good pitching in him.
233. Jesse Chavez, SP, Oakland A's
The A’s bumped Chavez to the bullpen when Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel arrived, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he gets another shot to start in 2015. He earned it with his performance as a starter, mainly through command that involved him working on the corners with his cutter and sinker against lefties and righties. His mistakes got hit hard, but they were relatively infrequent.
232. Brad Boxberger, RP, Tampa Bay Rays
Talk about your all-time out-of-nowhere stories. In Boxberger, the Rays have taken a guy with modest stuff and command issues and turned him into a pitcher with unhittable stuff and good command. That’s just them doing what they do best.
231. Pat Neshek, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
It’s hard to ignore the “too good to be true” vibe emanating from Neshek’s huge season, but it’s not like he’s been extraordinarily lucky. At the least, he’s combined an extreme strike-throwing ability with an enhanced capacity to generate soft contact, both of which can be chalked up to a shift in his pitch selection.
230. Tyler Clippard, RP, Washington Nationals
Rafael Soriano is the guy who gets the attention, but Clippard is Washington’s best reliever. His fastball-up, changeup-down style can lead to some inconsistency, but it makes him hard to hit and just as hard to square up.
229. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Since Hellickson returned from elbow surgery in July, he’s shown he’s still an extreme fly-ball pitcher who asks much of his outfield defense. But we’ve also seen him keep everything down, with his fastball command consisting of working on the edges against lefties and righties. It’s also encouraging that his changeup has never been harder to hit. In all, it looks like he’s gotten over his lost 2013 season.
228. Jason Hammel, SP, Oakland A's
Hammel’s season took a turn for the worse the minute he ended up in Oakland, and it was bound to happen given his spotty command of a fastball that’s losing some zip and a fly-ball style that he overachieved with in Chicago. That Hammel has at least stayed healthy is a silver lining, however, and there’s plenty to like about how this season has featured a complete rebirth of his slider.
227. Juan Uribe, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Uribe’s age (35) and health concerns can’t be ignored, and his bat hasn’t been as good as his numbers make it look. Even still, he has at least a solid bat, and he combines it with steady defense to make himself a pretty capable player.
226. Jarred Cosart, SP, Miami Marlins
Cosart should be better at getting swinging strikes with the kind of arm he has, but there hasn’t been much progress in that department in 2014. But he’s been far better at finding the zone than he was in his major league cameo in 2013, and he’s specialized in both ground balls and weak fly balls. So though he could be a lot better, he can do enough as is.
225. Michael Saunders, RF, Seattle Mariners
Injuries have taken a bite out of Saunders’ 2014 season, but he’s quietly been pretty good when he has been able to play. He’s improved his hitting, provided some power and played a very strong right field, the combination of which makes him a well-rounded player.
224. Marlon Byrd, RF, Philadelphia Phillies
Byrd’s approach at the plate is too wild for him to maintain any kind of consistency, and he’s not among the baserunning elite. But if all you want is topnotch power and solid defense in right field, he's your guy.
223. Austin Jackson, CF, Seattle Mariners
The further we get away from Jackson’s excellent 2012 season, the more it looks like an outlier. And no, his defense is not as good as it used to be. But since his bat is better than his production says it is and he still has some athleticism to put to use on the basepaths and defense, he’s a solid all-around player.
222. Adam LaRoche, 1B, WAS Nationals
LaRoche’s situation right now is a tale of two directions. There’s plenty to like about how he’s bounced back from a rough 2013 season, but even his bounce back can’t hide the red flags that suggest he’s not going to be the same hitter or defender going forward.
221. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
It’s been a fine rebound season for Castro, as he’s tightened up his discipline while also attacking fastballs and taking better advantage of his power. But a good bat without baserunning and defense is only worth so much. Castro seems to have given up on one and is still working on improving at the other.
220. Marcell Ozuna, CF, Miami Marlins
Ozuna packs a good arm for center field and even better power. Thanks to those two things, he’s a quality player. He’s not the best fly-ball catcher, however, and his hitting and baserunning are too inconsistent for him to be anything more than a steady all-around player.
219. Erick Aybar, SS, Los Angeles Angels
That Aybar appears to be slowing down in his 30s isn’t good, but the silver lining is that he’s shown he can still be a capable baserunner and defender despite that. Add in his average to above-average bat, and you still have a quality player on your hands.
218. Carlos Rodon, SP, Chicago White Sox
Rodon has everything one looks for in a potential No. 1 starter with a durable frame, three offerings with plus or better potential and the type of competitive mound presence that can’t be taught. As long as Rodon can stay healthy, it shouldn’t take him long to emerge as one of baseball’s premier left-handed pitchers.
217. Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins
Buxton has the ceiling of an MVP-caliber player in his prime, with five potentially plus tools and a feel for making in-game adjustments. However, after losing nearly all of 2014 due to injuries, he now faces at least some pressure to make up for the lost time.
216. Brian McCann, C, New York Yankees
Given how things have been ever since 2012, there’s really no denying that McCann’s hitting is going south in a hurry. But while that’s going to spark chatter about what the Yankees should do with him, moving him out from behind the plate shouldn’t happen just yet. His defense is too valuable.
215. Josh Beckett, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Beckett’s new curveball-heavy approach has largely worked wonders, namely helping to keep his swinging-strike rate steady and allowing him to more easily keep hitters off-balance. It’s too bad he’s still a homer-prone fly-ball pitcher despite that, and three separate DL stints (the latest likely a season-ender) signal pretty clearly that he still can’t be counted on to stay healthy.
214. Justin Masterson, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
If you focus only on Masterson’s sinker and slider, everything’s fine. The former can still get ground balls, and the latter can still get whiffs. But what was already suspect command has been made worse by right knee trouble, making him more prone to disaster outings. He’ll make a good reclamation project this winter, but for now he’s definitely lost his status as one of baseball’s top pitchers.
213. Jeff Locke, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
You still don’t know what Locke’s command is going to be like on days when he takes the ball, and he has a tendency to give up home runs. However, simplifying things to a sinker-changeup approach has helped his command become more consistent than it was in 2013. And aside from the home runs, he’s still a solid bet for ground balls.
212. Chris Young, SP, Seattle Mariners
Maybe Young’s greatest feat this season has been simply staying healthy, even if it’s required him to handle a pretty light workload. But he’s also shown that he’s still very much capable of doing his own thing. Namely, pitching up and away from both lefties and righties with consistency and getting pop-ups and harmless fly balls thanks to equal parts location and impressive rise on his four-seamer. It’s a unique approach, but this year has been a reminder that he makes it work.
211. Danny Santana, CF, Minnesota Twins
Santana likely isn’t the hitter his numbers say he is, and his defense in center field needs work before it can even be called average. All the same, he does have the look of a guy who can at least be a steady hitter and baserunner with some doubles and triples power.
210. Yasmani Grandal, C, San Diego Padres
Grandal’s return from last year’s knee injury hasn’t gone especially smooth, as he’s looked lost at the plate for much of the year. But his power from the left side is fine, and his excellent receiving skills help make him a strong defensive player despite his shortcomings with blocking and throwing.
209. Koji Uehara, RP, Boston Red Sox
Between his excellent command and his ability to miss bats, Uehara still has the same tools for the job that allowed him to put together one of the most dominant runs of relief pitching in history last year. His stuff hasn’t been quite the same, however. That’s made him easier to hit, which doesn't bode especially well for the future.
208. Jose Reyes, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
That Reyes struggles to even play passable defense at shortstop definitely helps drag down his overall value, and he’s neither the hitter nor the baserunner he used to be. But since his bat and baserunning are still valuable tools, he’s not done as a quality everyday player.
207. Alcides Escobar, SS, Kansas City Royals
Escobar has his limitations, but he’s arguably a more well-rounded player now than he was in any of his first three seasons with the Kansas City Royals. More consistent contact has made him at least a passable hitter and power source, and he’s still running the bases well and playing a quality shortstop.
206. Mark Melancon, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Melancon hasn’t been as dominant across the board as he was in 2013, when it was basically impossible to do damage against him. But he still locates his bread-and-butter cutter well, and he can still avoid and manipulate contact better than the average reliever.
205. Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians
Bauer hasn’t figured it all out yet, as he hasn’t mastered minimizing walks and is basically incapable of keeping his fastball low in the zone. But progress has been made, as he’s at least been able to find the zone fairly consistently and has shown he can miss bats and induce shallow fly balls. This isn’t star-level stuff without efficiency, but Bauer’s showing he can at least survive in the big leagues.
204. Charlie Morton, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
The best thing Morton has going for him is his ability to induce ground balls, which happens when you throw as many sinkers as he does. He’s had some issues with walks this year, however, and it doesn’t bode well that his sinker has gotten a lot easier to hit on a line this season. And given his age (nearly 31), his season coming to a halt because of a sports hernia is another troubling development.
203. Khris Davis, LF, Milwaukee Brewers
Davis has plenty of power and some good defense in left field to offer, two things that combine to make him a pretty solid regular. Just don’t expect his power and defense to come with consistent hitting or much baserunning.
202. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians
That Chisenhall is so lousy defensively puts a damper on his overall potential. The bright side is that his hitting breakout has come about due to legit reasons. If he can keep that up and continue providing at least solid power, he’s going to be an easily above-average regular.
201. Bryce Harper, LF, Washington Nationals
The 2014 season hasn't been an easy one for Harper, as he's had to battle more injuries and has been largely inconsistent when he's been healthy. Come 2015, he'll still be looking to turn his massive potential into reality. It's a good thing, then, that he's done enough this season to show his potential still lives.
Nos. 200-151: Oberholtzer-Springer
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200. Brett Oberholtzer, SP, Houston Astros
Oberholtzer’s one of the more unheralded zone-pounders in the game right now, and he has a fly-ball style that works thanks to how he can keep hitters off-balance with his curveball and changeup. Now he just needs to stop throwing his heat down the middle and develop a consistent way to get swinging strikes.
199. Vance Worley, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Worley still can’t miss bats worth a darn, and he still hasn’t fully cured his case of gopheritis. And yet he no longer looks like a throwaway starter. He still has the extremely hard-heavy approach that he had before, but his time with the Pirates has consisted largely of him assaulting the strike zone and holding lineups in check through sheer efficiency. That’ll do for a comeback.
198. Alfredo Simon, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Simon’s All-Star performance in the first half of 2014 was never going to last, as too much was built on an unsustainably low average on balls in play against him. Nonetheless, he’s shown that he has some merits, chief among them being his control and an ability to keep the ball on the ground.
197. Wilson Ramos, C, Washington Nationals
Quietly, Ramos has become one of the better hitting catchers in the league, with his ability to whack the ball to right field being the primary attraction. It’s a shame his power is hit-or-miss and that his defensive skill set is marred by receiving skills that need some work.
196. Wei-Yin Chen, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Chen has issues with hard contact being made against him, with the biggest of them being the ease with which righties pull long fly balls off him. And even though he’s gaining velocity, his hard stuff is actually getting easier to hit. The reason we can forgive faults like these is because Chen now rarely goes outside the zone, allowing him to continue eating a decent number of innings.
195. Wade Miley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
You have to appreciate how consistently Miley keeps his pitches down, and he reaps the benefits by getting ground balls and, more recently, swings and misses. But his stuff isn’t overpowering, and he’s becoming more and more hesitant to challenge hitters in the strike zone. I suppose anyone would if they had Miley’s problems with the long ball.
194. R.A. Dickey, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Though it only shows up so much in his strikeout rate, Dickey’s knuckleball has had a much easier time missing bats in 2014 than it did in 2013. He’s also still a great source of innings, putting in at least six and 100 pitches virtually every time out. But it doesn’t look so good that he’s having trouble finding the zone and that it’s getting easier every year to hit his knuckler on a line.
193. Mat Latos, SP, Cincinnati Reds
The start of Latos’ season was delayed by injuries, and he’s just looked off ever since he returned. His velocity is way down from 2013 levels, and he’s also been more hesitant to use his slider. Related to these two things is how he’s had trouble missing bats and keeping the ball out of the air. He’s made it clear he still has the goods he needs to produce, but his usual dominance is nowhere in sight.
192. Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Minnesota Twins
There might not be a more invisible third baseman in the league than Plouffe, and it’s true that he doesn’t really excel at anything. But with a bat that’s showing signs of getting better, decent power, baserunning and defense, Plouffe is a solid all-around third baseman.
191. Jake McGee, RP, Tampa Bay Rays
FanGraphs' WAR makes an argument for McGee as arguably the best reliever in baseball this year. That’s overstating things a bit, but he’s at least one of the elite relievers in baseball. All he does is throw fastballs, but the quality of the pitch itself and his command of it are too much for opposing hitters.
190. Howie Kendrick, 2B, Los Angeles Angels
Kendrick’s best talent is his ability to handle the bat, particularly in how he so easily hits the ball the other way. He can also run the bases and play a steady second base. But his approach to right field doesn’t help his power, and in general there’s still a gap between where his ability says his production should be and where his production actually is.
189. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
The biggest takeaways from Pujols’ 2014 season are that last year didn’t break his body beyond repair and that he can still be a capable hitter with good power when healthy. It’s just not a smart idea to expect anything more than “capable” and “good” in those two departments. Pujols may have some life left, but he’s still far from the player he used to be.
188. Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals
Between his speed, power and general athleticism, Desmond is one of the best packages of tools you’re going to find at shortstop. But consistency is something he struggles mightily with, especially when it comes to hitting the baseball. And that’s a problem that’s getting worse.
187. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
No hitter in the minor leagues can match Bryant’s offensive ceiling, as he projects as a perennial 35-plus home run threat capable of hitting for some average while holding down a corner position. He’ll eventually go through an adjustment period, but the 22-year-old has the makeup and secondary skills to overcome any struggles.
186. Shane Greene, SP, New York Yankees
Though he doesn’t always hit the zone, Greene has definitely shown he can keep the ball down. In doing so, he puts himself in line to get ground balls while also making stuff that’s not that overpowering look overpowering. It’s the kind of mix that could keep Greene in the Yankees rotation, not to mention potentially allow him to make this score look conservative (which it sort of is).
185. Jimmy Nelson, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Though he hasn’t logged a significant amount of action in the majors, Nelson’s shown that his sinker is definitely cut out to get ground balls in the big leagues while also avoiding a repeat of the walk problems that plagued his 2013 season. If he can get his sinker down more consistently while putting more trust in his slider, he’ll have no trouble outperforming the score I’ve given him.
184. Kyle Hendricks, SP, Chicago Cubs
Albeit in a small sample size, what Hendricks has shown since his arrival in the majors is encouraging. He doesn’t work in the zone as much as his walk rate suggests, but his ability to keep the ball low in the zone makes hitters protect and leads to ground balls. You don’t want to get too excited about a small sample, but these are the kinds of abilities that tend to play well for a while.
183. Stephen Vogt, C, Oakland A's
There are other platoon hitters as good as Vogt is, be it from a hitting perspective, a power one or both. But as a defensive catcher who can also fill in at first and both outfield spots, he’s a unique weapon for Bob Melvin and the A’s.
182. Scooter Gennett, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
Our big knock on Gennett is that his success has come exclusively in a platoon role this year. But when you look past that, you see an aggressive swinger who knows how to get his line drives and who can also put in some good baserunning and play some decent defense.
181. Leonys Martin, CF, Texas Rangers
Goodness knows Martin has his limits as a hitter, ranging from a lack of discipline to an inability to hit lefties to limited power. But he hits righties well enough to save par, and the value he can provide running the bases and playing center field must not be overlooked.
180. Melky Cabrera, LF, Toronto Blue Jays
Good health allowed Cabrera’s bat to come alive again in 2014. He once again displayed a strong contact ability and some power. Just don’t expect him to boost his OBP with walks, nor should you expect baserunning or defense.
179. Matt Shoemaker, SP, Los Angeles Angels
Though Shoemaker hasn’t played too big a part in the Angels’ successful season, he’s definitely been one of the unsung heroes. His slider and splitter are weapons, and he has the command to maximize their usefulness. And with the injuries to Tyler Skaggs and Garrett Richards, Shoemaker should be on the Angels’ rotation radar for 2015.
178. Drew Smyly, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Regardless of which specific aspect of his game you’re looking at, Smyly is best characterized as a work in progress. But he arrived in Tampa Bay with the command and stuff to be at least a mid-rotation starter, and it already looks like the Rays have helped him fine-tune some things to a point where he could be just that.
177. Jake Odorizzi, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Consistency has largely evaded Odorizzi in his first full season, and he’s brought that on himself with hit-or-miss command and hard-hit balls. But if he’s proved anything, it's that his fastball/split-change combination is downright dangerous.
176. Matt Garza, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Garza’s first year with the Brewers has been more of an adventure than his ERA indicates, and this is also yet another season in which he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. But as long as he still has his wicked slider and enough control to go with it, he still has what he needs to be an effective mid-rotation starter.
175. Wily Peralta, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
As a guy who throws hard but can’t get whiffs and who gets ground balls and also gives up home runs, Peralta’s something of a hard guy to figure out. But he only needed to improve his command to make himself better than a mere back-end starter, and the 2014 season has seen him do that.
174. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Rollins has welcomed back his power and speed while continuing to play at least a decent shortstop. He’s at that age where he can’t keep this up forever, but he’s at least shown that he can keep doing it for longer than we were all thinking last year.
173. Bartolo Colon, SP, New York Mets
It’s been the same formula for Colon the last couple of years: throw strikes, avoid walks, hope they don’t hit the ball too hard. Though this formula hasn’t been as effective in 2014 as it was in 2013, it still gets results. And come 2015, it should still be a good bet.
172. Chase Headley, 3B, New York Yankees
We can stop waiting for the power Headley showed in 2012 to come back. It’s not going to happen, and his value can only go so high because of that. His hitting talent is better reflected by his time in New York than his time in San Diego, however, and he can play some fantastic defense at third base.
171. Hanley Ramirez, SS, LA Dodgers
Ramirez’s bat is still very good by shortstop standards, and he’s absolutely a quality player because of that. But his bat does have some concerning holes in it, and his defense...well, there’s no defense for it. And while injuries definitely haven’t helped Ramirez, it’s not a good idea to trust too heavily in a turnaround. It’s not like he was a picture of health before 2014, and he’s not getting any younger.
170. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
There’s an “Oh, how the mighty have fallen!” vibe going on with this score, and it’s unfortunately justified. Even with his world-class batting eye, Votto can’t be much of a player without healthy legs. And for the umpteenth time, healthy legs should not be taken for granted going forward in light of how he's now on the wrong side of 30 and how shaky his legs have been in the last few years.
169. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, LA Dodgers
It turns out that Gonzalez’s old opposite-field power isn’t dead yet after all, and he still plays a mean first base. And as long as he can be a good defender with power, he can be a productive player. He’ll need to rediscover his old hitting chops to be a star player, though, and it looks like we can give up waiting on that.
168. Tony Watson, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
A close look does the job of revealing that Watson has his imperfections, but it also makes it easier to appreciate how he goes about his business. Each pitch he throws has a specific purpose, and he uses them to execute similar plans against lefties and righties very effectively.
167. Collin McHugh, SP, Houston Astros
McHugh’s 2014 season is one for the “Out of Nowhere” file, but that doesn’t mean it should be ignored and forgotten. Not too many guys can make an extreme reliance on breaking balls work like he does, and hitters have shown throughout the season there’s only so much they can do to solve him.
166. Andrew Cashner, SP, San Diego Padres
Cashner has always had terrific stuff, and he’s shown in the last two seasons that he can command the ball well enough and jam enough hitters with it to be a successful pitcher even without whiffs. But the big asterisk with him is still whether he can stay healthy, so he’s very much a tentative inclusion at the top of our starting pitcher totem pole.
165. Kole Calhoun, RF, Los Angeles Angels
Calhoun’s best asset is his bat, which produces plenty of line drives and a decent amount of power. His baserunning and defense are less impressive but not to a point where they cancel out his hitting. That makes him a pretty strong overall package.
164. Derek Norris, C, Oakland A's
There’s nothing wrong with Norris’ bat. His disciplined approach is admirable, and he makes good use of his pull power. But due to his iffy receiving, blocking and throwing skills, he’s more a hitter who catches than a catcher who hits.
163. Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Cole hasn’t blossomed into the ace-level pitcher he teased he could be in 2013, in part because of his shoulder problems and in part because of various weaknesses that still exist in his game. But there’s no doubt he still has the goods to be an ace pitcher, and he’ll be just that in 2015 if he can stay healthy while also fine-tuning his command.
162. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
We can call it a comeback. Gallardo has responded to a rough 2013 season by doing what needed to be done: Throw the ball in the strike zone and aim to get ground balls. Though not as dominant as he was several years ago, this new Gallardo is pretty good.
161. Mike Minor, SP, Atlanta Braves
Largely due to home runs and less-than-pinpoint command, Minor’s season has been a rough one for the most part. His command is hardly bad, however, and his early shoulder problems have impacted him more from an endurance standpoint than from a stuff standpoint. He’ll be better come 2015. Perhaps even better than ever if he continues this year’s experiment with his sinker.
160. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, SF Giants
After two up-and-down seasons, Sandoval has been his good self again in 2014. That means a mix of lots of base hits, solid power and underrated defense at the hot corner. If only his track record said it was OK to ignore the slightest warning signs.
159. Zach Britton, RP, Baltimore Orioles
The only good thing Britton had going for him as a starter was his sinker. Moving into a full-time relief role has allowed him to maximize that strength, giving the Orioles a closer who can both overpower hitters and get tons of ground balls. Sounds a lot like a former closer of theirs, doesn't it?
158. Joaquin Benoit, RP, San Diego Padres
Benoit had an excellent season that went under the radar in 2013, and he’s doing it all over again in 2014. He’s still executing his style of pitching to perfection. And though somewhat suspect, it’s hard to ignore how much better he’s gotten at missing bats.
157. J.J. Hardy, SS, Baltimore Orioles
The rebound of Hardy’s power since his first home run in June only inspires so much optimism, and he still barely passes for a capable hitter. But as long as he has at least a solid bat to go with his outstanding defense at shortstop, he’ll continue being one of the best in the business at the position.
156. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets
Wright’s 2014 season is largely one for the “Not As Bad As It Looks” file, as his approach and his defense both remained areas of strength even if the results were questionable. But that bad shoulder clearly had some sort of effect, particularly on his power. If he doesn't get it back, things will be rough.
155. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Coming on the heels of a vintage Longoria season in 2013, this year has been a disappointment. And not accidentally so, as his bat, power and defense look older than they should be. The bright side, such as it is, is that all three of these things are still very much useful.
154. Greg Holland, RP, Kansas City Royals
That Holland hasn’t been missing bats with his fastballs as well as he did in 2013 is a bummer, as it’s made him a lesser strikeout pitcher. He’s still a really good one, though, and him being as effective at doing everything else has allowed him to keep his place as one of baseball’s nastiest relievers.
153. Zack Wheeler, SP, New York Mets
The biggest thing holding Wheeler back is his difficulty finding consistent fastball command, which will need to be fixed before he can become an elite pitcher. But he’s shown that he has the goods to get ground balls and whiffs, and that’s enough to make him a reliable pitcher.
152. Aroldis Chapman, RP, Cincinnati Reds
Chapman’s not a perfect reliever. His modest (and at the same time, honestly a little generous) score for his command and control drives that point home. But hey, when you have a 100 mph fastball and a lethal slider to go with it, you don’t need to be perfect.
151. George Springer, RF, Houston Astros
Though a thigh injury ultimately ended it early, Springer did enough in 2014 to show that he has legit power for the big leagues. Now the question is if he can get his hitting and defense to a point where he can be a great all-around player rather than just a great power hitter.
Nos. 150-101: Ortiz-Bailey
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150. David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox
By keeping the home run power coming this season, Ortiz has kept his place among the elite DHs in the game. He’s just not the elite DH in the game anymore. There are some real cracks in his hitting and even in his power if you take his opposite-field decline into account.
149. Matt Holliday, LF, St. Louis Cardinals
You can put yours truly in the camp that thinks Holliday’s career is criminally underappreciated. And before we speak of him like he’s dead and buried, he’s still a quality hitter. It’s just apparent he’s not going to be a superior hitter anymore, and he still can’t be counted on for defense.
148. Joc Pederson, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Pederson is an impressive athlete with quiet strength, showcasing five average-or-better tools and good secondary skills. His power/speed combination makes him one of the more intriguing prospects heading into 2015 and has him seemingly poised to receive considerable playing time in the Dodgers' outfield next season.
147. Derek Holland, SP, Texas Rangers
Including Holland in this countdown despite him having only made a handful of starts in 2014 may seem, well, off. But remember, part of what we're doing here is focusing on who's going to be good in 2015. Holland's a good bet for two reasons: He's going to be healthy, and he was really good in 2013. Like, arguably top-12-in-MLB good. Surely he'll be able to handle being top-65 good next year.
146. Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota Twins
With his style of pitching, Gibson’s likely to never attract much attention or headlines. It’s not flashy, and it leaves him vulnerable to occasional bad starts. But starts like those should continue to only be occasional, as he’s proved himself to be capable of generally bamboozling hitters well enough to survive.
145. Francisco Liriano, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Liriano embodies the term “effectively wild” better than any other starter in the majors. Though he rarely goes in the strike zone, his stuff is so good that he’s able to get away with it. Specifically, he gets away with it because of whiffs and ground balls, two things that are ideal for pitchers.
144. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Washington Nationals
Gonzalez’s eternally iffy command can occasionally make him frustrating to watch, and it certainly limits his potential as an innings-eater. But nobody should lose sight of the fact he still has really good stuff, and it’s going to make up for his lack of command more often than not.
143. Justin Morneau, 1B, Colorado Rockies
Morneau’s old power looks like it’s long gone, but he deserves credit for adjusting so that his game doesn’t depend on his power as much. His new hyper-aggressive approach at the plate is working wonders, and he can still play a sound first base.
142. Adam Eaton, CF, Chicago White Sox
Thanks in part to injuries continuing to rob him of playing time, Eaton hasn’t yet proved himself as a great baserunner or the most advanced center fielder, and he has little power to offer. He’s done enough, however, to establish himself as an effective major league hitter with enough athleticism to potentially be a terrific all-around player.
141. Mark Buehrle, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Buehrle overachieved with a 2.04 ERA in his first 13 starts, though he has tapered off since. But because he can still spot the ball and keep hitters guessing, he hasn’t lost his reputation as one of baseball’s craftiest pitchers.
140. Yordano Ventura, SP, KC Royals
Ventura still has work to do to transform himself from a thrower into a pitcher, whether it’s regarding commanding the ball or generating more weak contact. There’s no question his arm alone makes him a special talent, though, and he’s shown that said arm can handle starting.
139. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atlanta Braves
As far as pure stuff goes, Kimbrel is good enough to rival any other reliever. And thanks to his stuff, he’s still very much one of the elite relievers in the game. But due to his sometimes iffy command and his increasing hittability, whether he’s still the elite reliever in the game is debatable.
138. Jose Quintana, SP, Chicago White Sox
Quintana’s not going to wow you most nights, as he possesses neither swing-and-miss stuff nor especially pinpoint command. But because he’s steady in those two departments and he can also pitch to contact effectively, he rarely fails to author respectable line scores when he takes the ball.
137. Matt Carpenter, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Carpenter’s biggest strength is his approach, which is more measured than any you’re going to find elsewhere. And despite the metrics’ iffy opinion of him, he’s a good defender too. It’s too bad his power and baserunning have taken a turn for the worse, as those two things were terrific sources of value in 2013.
136. Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals
Wong isn’t a finished product yet, and that shows most in his various shortcomings as a hitter. But we know he’s a good baserunner, and he’s also shown above-average power and defense at second base. Even if he doesn’t improve as a hitter, that’s a player you want.
135. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, New York Yankees
Granted, where Kuroda is even going to pitch in the majors again after this season is a valid question. But he hasn’t—to my knowledge anyway—definitively stated that he’s not coming back in 2015. If he does, he’s shown enough command and general pitching know-how this season to prove he can make it even as a lesser version of his old self.
134. Anibal Sanchez, SP, Detroit Tigers
There are legit reasons to worry about Sanchez, namely his health betraying him once again and both his stuff and control being diminished. But the reality that he’s still been effective despite these things will do nicely for a silver lining. This Sanchez isn’t the 2013 version, but he's still a quality option.
133. Alexei Ramirez, SS, Chicago White Sox
For all his various imperfections, Ramirez is still a shortstop who can handle the bat, run the bases and play above-average defense. How much better he can get at any of these things at his age is a good question, but he’s done enough this year to show that he’s not ready to go into a harsh decline just yet.
132. Neil Walker, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Walker packs a terrific bat for second base, and he’s made it better than ever with his adjustments this year. The trouble is he’s pretty much a bat-only second baseman, as he doesn’t run the bases well and doesn’t have much to offer on defense.
131. Desmond Jennings, CF, TB Rays
That Jennings has holes in his bat that help cancel out his approach is the biggest thing working against him. But aside from that, he’s a slick-fielding center fielder with some solid power and speed on the basepaths to offer.
130. Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels
Weaver is on the decline, as he can no longer dictate at-bats and get swings and misses like he used to. You have to hand it to him for remaining crafty, however, since he can still toy with the strike zone and keep hitters off-balance.
129. J.D. Martinez, OF, Detroit Tigers
The sheer wildness of Martinez’s approach at the plate makes it tough to believe his big breakout is built to last. But the power he’s shown looks legit, and he can play solid defense in both corner outfield spots. That’s a guy who’s worth having even if consistency begins to elude him again.
128. Yoenis Cespedes, LF, Boston Red Sox
Cespedes still isn’t the phenomenal all-around player his raw talent says he could be, but that’s OK. At the least, he’s a very good power source and a guy who can play enough defense based solely on the strength of his arm.
127. Chris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
The issues Archer has had with his command this year go to show that he’s still more of an electric (sterling, even) arm than anything else. But since he features an elite slider and stuff that’s generally very hard to square up, there’s a place for him among baseball’s top starters.
126. Nelson Cruz, DH, Baltimore Orioles
Cruz is arguably the best power hitter in the game right now, as he’s been able to stay healthy and has ridden his usual fly-ball style and thunderous power to a career-high number of home runs. Aside from that, however, he’s still himself: a guy with an inconsistent bat who can’t run the bases.
125. Juan Lagares, CF, New York Mets
Between his arm and his range, Lagares is the ideal package in center field. Because of that, his defense alone is enough to make him a quality player. But now that he can hit a little bit too, he may be on his way to becoming a star.
124. Manny Machado, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
The silver linings are plentiful. Machado’s still only 22. Despite his shortcomings as a hitter, he’s hardly a bad one. It’s promising that he also showed more power and that he was still a special talent at third base. As such, you just hope that having two surgically repaired knees instead of one won’t impact him too greatly.
123. Ian Kennedy, SP, San Diego Padres
Kennedy still has his faults, chief among them being that there’s still no telling what kind of control he’s going to have from start to start. But to that end, there’s no denying he’s at least been more consistent than he was in 2013, and the Padres also seemed to have taught him how to pitch again. All told, the Kennedy reclamation project has largely been a success.
122. Mike Leake, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Leake’s stuff and general approach toward pitching don't leave him with a large margin of error, and his troubles with home runs are basically a constant reminder of that. But he executes his game plan more often than not, which he owes to his overlooked ability to spot the ball where he wants.
121. Brandon Moss, 1B, Oakland A's
Moss' transformation from a failed top prospect into a productive player over the last couple of years has been built largely on his power. But with him tightening up his approach at the plate while also filling in at other positions defensively, we're seeing him become a more complete player.
120. Kyle Lohse, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
There are plenty of gripes to raise with Lohse, mainly having to do with how mediocre he is at getting swings and misses and how much he relies on ballpark dimensions and his outfield defense. But there’s no knocking his command, and there’s no ignoring how it makes mediocre stuff look less so.
119. Jason Castro, C, Houston Astros
Castro will need to clean up his approach if he wants to get back to being the consistent hitter he was in 2013. Aside from that, however, he’s still a valuable player due to the power he provides and the well-rounded defense he plays behind the dish.
118. Danny Duffy, SP, Kansas City Royals
The most disappointing thing about Duffy is his merely modest ability to miss bats, but he’s done enough to establish himself as the kind of starter who can succeed even without whiffs. It will be all about pounding the strike zone and getting hitters to send the ball harmlessly skyward.
117. Alex Wood, SP, Atlanta Braves
It’s hard to shake the feeling that Wood is a gimmick pitcher, but there’s plenty to like about how he pitches. He’s not great at spotting the ball, missing bats or limiting hard contact, but being reasonably good at all three things allows him to be an effective all-around hurler.
116. John Lackey, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Lackey’s fastball command is quietly among the league’s better tools, as he could probably spot the ball on the outside edge in his sleep. But his declining velocity, whiffs and soft contact highlight how the cracks are beginning to show. Looking ahead, those cracks are likely to be even more apparent.
115. Daniel Murphy, 2B, New York Mets
Murphy’s bat was good before 2014, but he’s made it that much better by launching an all-out assault on pitches in the zone. He also offers solid power and baserunning, leaving his defense as the only real problem. And it’s too bad it really is a problem, as it takes away from his overall value.
114. Kenley Jansen, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Hard-hit balls notwithstanding, Jansen is still a superb reliever. His extremely hard-heavy style makes it easy for him to live in the strike zone, and his cutter is now arguably the single most dominant pitch in baseball. He has Mariano Rivera-like stuff.
113. Dee Gordon, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers
If we’re being honest, this scoring system isn’t very friendly to Gordon because of how it has a cap on how many points he can get for his baserunning. Even with what, there’s no denying he’s turned himself into a well-rounded player. In addition to playing a solid second base, he’s become a capable hitter by tightening up his approach and catering to his strengths.
112. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atlanta Braves
Simmons’ defense is good enough to make him not only one of the game’s elite shortstops but one of the game’s top players. But until he settles on the right way to make use of his contact-making ability at the plate, his bat will continue to lag well behind his glove and render him a lesser player than he should be.
111. Jason Vargas, SP, Kansas City Royals
Vargas has a place among the least-discussed pitchers in the league, and it’s hard to imagine that changing as long as his pitching style continues to be so unspectacular. It’s definitely effective, though, as command and an ability to change speeds allow him to succeed as a fly-ball pitcher.
110. Brandon McCarthy, SP, NY Yankees
It’s easy to buy into McCarthy’s Yankees rebirth as a fluke, but he was never as rotten as his 5.01 ERA in Arizona said he was. Though it’s far from impossible to make good contact against him, his command is among the best there is, and he further helps himself by mainly keeping the ball on the ground.
109. Evan Gattis, C, Atlanta Braves
The premium this scoring system places on catcher defense doesn’t do Gattis any favors, and justifiably so given the things he needs to work on behind the dish. But wild swinger though he may be, he’s definitely dangerous with a bat in his hands.
108. Lucas Duda, 1B, New York Mets
Duda’s offensive game is based strictly on punishing right-handed fastballs and hitting for power, but his platoon role and raw power allow him to be pretty good at both these things. He can also play a solid, if unspectacular, first base, making him one of the better platoon guys around.
107. Dellin Betances, RP, New York Yankees
Betances isn’t the best reliever in the game at any one thing. But he’s among the best at finding the zone, missing bats and limiting hard contact, making him a complete package coming out of the bullpen. There’s a very strong case to be made for him as the best reliever in baseball right now.
106. Jhonny Peralta, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
You can look at Peralta’s WAR and conclude that he’s one of the game’s elite position players. But that owes a lot to his debatable defensive value. In reality, what’s likely only solid defense combines with a good power bat to make him a quality player but less than a great one.
105. Doug Fister, SP, Washington Nationals
The results have definitely been there for Fister, and there’s no ignoring how he has some of the best command and one of the best sinkers you’re going to find. But his inability to miss bats is a complication here, and the reality that good contact hasn’t exactly been infrequent is another. It’s hard to escape the notion that Fister’s future might not be as bright as his present.
104. Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
It’s easy to focus on how Wacha’s shoulder injury derailed his 2014 season, and that indeed shouldn’t be ignored. But he did look pretty good in his return to action Sept. 4—Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch will tell you about it—and overall he's continued to show how big a talent he is, displaying command and strong abilities to miss bats and limit hard contact.
103. Matt Adams, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
It's a shame that Adams has let his power go to waste by reinventing himself as more of a contact hitter, but that transformation could be going a lot worse. You also have to admire his defense at first base, a part of his game that really hasn’t gotten the attention it deserves.
102. Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets
For all that’s gone wrong for the Mets in 2014, deGrom's one thing that has gone very right. He’s arrived in the majors and shown both plus stuff and good command that has potential to be even better. The thought of him and Matt Harvey in the same rotation is a scary one for NL East foes.
101. Homer Bailey, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Bailey’s 2014 season looks a heck of a lot better if you take a bad April out of the equation, and it’s no wonder knowing that he didn't lose his swing-and-miss stuff while further enhancing his ability to keep the ball on the ground. But it is hard to ignore that he’s at times been more of a thrower than a pitcher, and his arm injury does complicate things a bit.
Nos. 100-76: Santana-Utley
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100. Ervin Santana, SP, Atlanta Braves
Even despite the gripes that can be aired about Santana’s general lack of pinpoint command and how he seems reluctant to become a full-time ground ball pitcher, he hardly has bad command and he’s better at limiting hard contact than he used to be. Add in how much better he’s gotten at missing bats, and you have a pretty good pitcher.
99. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kemp can hit again. He’s made that much certain and more and more so as the season has gone along. As long as he can do that, he’s going to be a valuable player. But without baserunning or defense, he's not going to be able to get back to being the MVP-caliber player he once was.
98. Jose Fernandez, SP, Miami Marlins
Even if we assume a good recovery from Tommy John, we’re not going to see Fernandez on a major league mound again until 2015 is well underway. And if he does come back, he’s probably not going to be the same pitcher he was early in 2014. But as long as Tommy John doesn’t rob him of his glorious fastball-curveball combination, he’ll still have the goods to be one of baseball’s best pitchers.
97. Scott Kazmir, SP, Oakland A's
Though he comes with platoon, swing-and-miss and workload question marks, the reclamation of Scott Kazmir can safely be deemed a success. Largely through command better than any he ever had when he was younger, he’s turned himself into more of a pitcher than he ever was when he was younger.
96. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox
Since he can still put together good at-bats with a very strong contact ability on offense and play a terrific second base on defense, Pedroia hasn't stopped being a very good two-way player. But with his power and baserunning on thin ice, it's noteworthy that "very good" is a step down from "great."
95. Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Though injuries have done their part to wreck Ryu’s sophomore season, it’s been largely a success otherwise. What was already really good command of his pitches has gotten better, and he’s still mixed strong—if less than great—abilities to miss bats and limit hard contact.
94. Lance Lynn, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
It hasn’t been an easy year for the Cardinals' rotation, but Lynn’s emergence has been a quiet bright spot. He can still make things interesting with his command, but he’s gotten to a point where he can manipulate contact well while still getting his share of whiffs.
93. Wade Davis, RP, Kansas City Royals
It’s pretty clear the best place for Davis is in the bullpen. He throws harder, locates better and generally bamboozles hitters like it’s nobody’s business. That's especially true in 2014, throughout which he’s put together pretty much a perfect symphony of domination starting on Day 1.
92. Travis d'Arnaud, C, New York Mets
The June demotion to the minors has had the desired effect on d’Arnaud’s bat, as he’s come back with a better approach and tons more power. These things bode well going forward, and then there are the receiving and throwing he has to offer defensively.
91. Denard Span, CF, Washington Nationals
It’s fair to downplay Span’s power and have doubts about his legs holding up after such a strong showing at age 30, but for the most part, he offers plenty to like. Best of all are his ideal leadoff hitter’s approach and fly-ball-catching skills, the former of which has been put to better use than ever before.
90. Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles
Wieters should be able to bounce back from Tommy John easily enough. Assuming he does, the Orioles will be welcoming back a powerful catcher with good—if arguably overrated due to his receiving shortcomings—defensive talents behind the dish.
89. Mike Napoli, 1B, Boston Red Sox
Napoli’s trademark power looks like it’s no longer going to be a trademark, but that’s fine if the trade-off is going to be a more advanced, more consistent approach at the plate with quality baserunning and defense on the side.
88. Steve Pearce, 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles
If you haven’t noticed, Pearce has had a heck of a season. His assault on fastballs has worked wonders for his consistency and his power, and he’s been capable both on the basepaths and on defense. It’ll be a tough act to follow, but there are some breakouts you just can't ignore.
87. Sean Doolittle, RP, Oakland A's
Doolittle has gone from being underrated in 2013 to easily one of the best relief pitchers in the league in 2014. That he does it mostly with stupendous control makes him something of a rarity among his peers, but don’t overlook how effective he is at missing bats and getting soft contact with his fastball-only approach.
86. Starling Marte, LF, Pittsburgh Pirates
It’s a stretch to say that Marte’s game has actually improved from where it was in 2013, but that’s OK. His hitting and power are at least passable, and his speed allows him to provide quite a bit of value both on the basepaths and in the outfield.
85. Mike Zunino, C, Seattle Mariners
You’ll miss the good stuff if you focus too hard on Zunino’s batting average. He’s shown he can provide above-average power by catcher standards, and his excellent receiving and capable throwing make him a big-time defensive asset behind the plate.
84. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Detroit Tigers
Kinsler can hit, hit for power, run the bases and play some really good defense. But it sort of feels like he’s having a better season than he really is. His power and approach at the plate haven’t improved, and you wonder if either will given where he is on the age spectrum.
83. Sonny Gray, SP, Oakland A's
Gray hasn’t exactly been overpowering in his first full season, and it’s not the best sign that his command has been shaky as he’s tried to be more than just a fastball-curveball guy. But he’s also a case of how effective keeping the ball low and getting ground balls can be, and his assorted shortcomings have certainly done little to diminish his reputation as one of the game’s bright young pitchers.
82. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, New York Yankees
Ellsbury is a disciplined hitter who’s now hitting scores of line drives, he still has solid power, and his legs are still useful on the basepaths and in the outfield. Trouble is his legs haven’t been as useful on the basepaths and in the outfield as they were in 2013. Without that same speed, he’s less of a superstar-level player and more of a mere star-level player.
81. Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals
Despite his iffy receiving skills, Perez is still an asset behind the plate who has power to offer from an offensive standpoint. But offensive consistency has evaded him in 2014 and will likely to continue to do so in the future if he doesn’t fix his runaway aggressiveness.
80. Marcus Stroman, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
It would be overstating things to say Stroman has put it all together as a starter, and goodness knows he went through something of a reality check in August. What he’s shown has been largely positive, however. Looking ahead, he’s a guy who should be able to command the ball well while picking up his share of whiffs and keeping hard contact to a minimum.
79. Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Miami Marlins
Results haven’t been easy for Eovaldi to come by as the season has moved along, but he’s done enough to establish himself as a potential star in the making. For as easy as it is to notice his fastball velocity, his command is just as impressive, and the best is likely still to come regarding his whiffability.
78. Hunter Pence, RF, San Francisco Giants
Pence is having a better season than this score indicates. But part of what we’re doing here is sizing up whether things can last, and I’m not sold on him being an improved hitter. Even if you knock that down a peg, though, he’s still a good-hitting, good-power, good-running and (generally) good-fielding right fielder.
77. Carlos Santana, 1B, Cleveland Indians
If we still lived in the days when batting average was everything, Santana would be way down there in these rankings. But his approach is better than his average would have you believe, and he mixes in legit power, good baserunning and strong defense to go with it.
76. Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies
It was easy to get the sense that Utley’s career was in peril when he had problems with his knees in 2012 but not now. He doesn’t do anything as well as he used to, but he’s still a hitter with a keen eye and good approach who can hit for power, run the bases and play defense well.
Nos. 75-51: Upton-Harvey
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75. Justin Upton, LF, Atlanta Braves
Upton has some exploitable weaknesses at the plate, and he hasn’t been as active on the basepaths, but he’s otherwise doing just fine. He’s far from a weak hitter, his defense in left field is strong and he’s back to being one of the game’s more dangerous power threats.
74. Tim Hudson, SP, San Francisco Giants
Watching Hudson pitch typically means watching a guy who hits the bottom of the strike zone pitch after pitch while racking up a ton of ground balls. Having such a subpar strikeout ability does give him a smaller margin for error, however, and there is the question of how much longer he can keep this up at his age.
73. Lorenzo Cain, CF, Kansas City Royals
Cain would be a solid player even if all he could do was play plus defense in center field and right field. But because he can also hit a little bit and run the bases, he’s easily better than solid.
72. Tanner Roark, SP, Washington Nationals
It’s easy to overlook Roark given that he’s come out of nowhere and is rubbing shoulders with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez, but he looks like a legit big league pitcher. Though he’s not overpowering, his abilities to command the ball and keep hitters off balance ensure he’s successful.
71. Victor Martinez, DH, Detroit Tigers
What’s happening with Martinez is what you hope will happen when you stick a guy at DH late in his career. Free-swinger though he may be, he’s hitting everything and hitting everything hard. There aren’t many good ones to choose from, but he’s the best true DH in the game right now.
70. Miguel Montero, C, Arizona Diamondbacks
Montero’s a better player than the surface stats indicate, which has a lot to do with how the surface stats don’t give him proper credit for his receiving skills. But even outside of that, good health has returned him to being a catcher who can get it done with his bat as well as his glove.
69. A.J. Pollock, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks
After he was overlooked in 2013, the broken hand that sidelined Pollock for several months this year effectively robbed him of a fair shot at a big breakout. But as long as he keeps his solid bat, good power, good speed and terrific glove in center field, don’t rule out Pollock finally achieving his big breakout in 2015.
68. Brian Dozier, 2B, Minnesota Twins
Dozier’s hitting potential is limited by how his approach suppresses swings and too often wastes swings that are taken. But his power is outstanding for a second baseman, and he adds in good baserunning and (I think) good defense to go with it. These things make him one of the best there is at second base.
67. Garrett Richards, SP, Los Angeles Angels
Though he did it with iffy command and fewer strikeouts than you’d expect, the way in which Richards simply overpowered hitters in 2014 made him one of the league’s elite starters. It’s a shame that his knee injury is going to keep us from seeing him not only the rest of this year, but potentially part of next year as well.
66. Jeff Samardzija, SP, Oakland A's
The best thing Samardzija has going for him is his steady transformation into a pitcher who’s going to get by on good control and a solid mix of whiffs and ground balls, and he has a much fresher arm than most guys do at his age. His command still needs fine-tuning, however, and he’s really not as downright overpowering as he was in his first two years as a starter.
65. Billy Hamilton, CF, Cincinnati Reds
At the absolute least, the Reds knew they had a weapon for the basepaths in Hamilton. What he’s shown is that he can indeed be more than that. He’s shown off a solid if not quite good bat and a tremendous glove. This leaves us to chuckle while adding this: Just wait until his baserunning improves.
64. James Shields, SP, Kansas City Royals
Shields’ superior command is the base for his two primary strengths: limiting walks and attracting ground balls by spotting the ball low in the zone. But the decline of his changeup has made him easier to hit, both from a contact standpoint and (seemingly) from a good-contact standpoint. Then there’s the obligatory question: How much longer can Shields keep handling such immense workloads?
63. Brett Gardner, LF, New York Yankees
With an excellent approach to hitting, good power, good speed and good defense, Gardner is more of a complete player now than he’s ever been before. Keeping him from being a truly superb all-around player, though, is the reality that he just can’t run like he used to.
62. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers
Beltre’s power may be coming down a bit, and his aging legs aren’t helping either his baserunning or defense, but no matter. He can flat-out hit with the best of ‘em, and age has hardly made him a liability when it comes to power and defense.
61. Yan Gomes, C, Cleveland Indians
So it turns out Gomes really is as good as he looked in 2013 after all. His lasting ability to make contact has staved off regression even as pitchers have adjusted to him. He’s still an asset behind the dish thanks to strong receiving skills and even better throwing ones.
60. Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros
It’s easy to look at Altuve’s batting average and stolen bases and see an elite player. But power and defense do count for a lot, and he doesn’t provide much of either. Still, his rise as one of the league’s top hitters is no joke, and it should allow him to continue as one of the best at second base.
59. Todd Frazier, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Exactly what’s going to become of Frazier’s power after a slow second half is a good question. But it’s hard to imagine it being anything less than good power, and he’s also a good hitter, baserunner and fielder. Put it all together, and you get a guy who’s quietly one of the better all-around third basemen in the league.
58. Rick Porcello, SP, Detroit Tigers
What’s been a career year for Porcello is not without cracks, particularly regarding to his diminished ability to miss bats. But he’s definitely grown as a pitcher, showing off superior command and pitching to contact more effectively. Finally, we can stop talking about the pitcher he might be and instead talk about the pitcher he is.
57. Henderson Alvarez, SP, Miami Marlins
The two big knocks on Alvarez are his ability to stay healthy and his general avoidance of strikeouts. There is some hope in the latter department, though, and there’s little to complain about regarding Alvarez’s ability to command the ball and get ground balls. That’s a fine recipe for success, and he executes it about as well as anyone.
56. Ben Zobrist, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays
Zobrist isn’t the same hitter he was between 2009 and 2012, and you can see the age-related cracks forming on his power and speed. But he still has one of the most disciplined approaches you’re going to find, and he brings enviable defensive versatility to the table. He's probably not as good as his WAR says he is, but he’s still darn good.
55. Jayson Werth, RF, Washington Nationals
For anyone who’s just now tuning in, Werth’s contact is actually working out pretty well for the Nationals. He can’t run or field like he used to, but he can definitely hit. Factor in how his power is better than this year’s numbers make it look, and he’s one of the better offensive threats in the National League.
54. Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati Reds
Mesoraco’s breakout as one of the game’s top hitting catchers has cemented him among the catching elite. The main thing keeping him from the top are his receiving skills, which are in need of some refinement.
53. Adam Jones, CF, Baltimore Orioles
If we push aside Jones’ mysterious defense and his unwillingness to take walks, there’s plenty to like about his game. His hitting may not have a high ceiling, but he does enough (and is actually doing more) to make sure it has a high floor. Add in good power and baserunning, and you get a fairly complete player.
52. Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals
As per usual, Molina’s defense is nothing to worry about. He hasn’t had a great year receiving wise, but he’s typically as reliable there as he is in all forms of catcher defense. But his bat is not without some red flags, particularly when it comes to what appears to be quickly declining power.
51. Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets
We should pump our brakes on expecting to see the 2013 Harvey in 2015. Even a lesser version of that Harvey, however, should still be an outstanding pitcher. As long as he at least has his good stuff, he’ll be able to miss enough bats and jam enough hitters to get by fine. After being arguably MLB's best pitcher when he was healthy in 2013, him returning to be a top-25 pitcher is absolutely plausible.
50. Masahiro Tanaka, SP, New York Yankees
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Control
That a pitcher can avoid walks so well without pounding the zone defies logic. But Masahiro Tanaka’s really good at toying with the edges of the zone with his hard stuff against both lefties and righties, typically setting the latter up for sliders. Then there’s how he uses his splitter, consistently placing it both at and below the knees to get strikes via swings. It’s a smoke-and-mirrors approach, but he executes it perfectly.
Whiffability
The obvious thing to be noted is how much Tanaka’s splitter lived up to the hype. It’s not the only elite whiff pitch he has, though, as his slider is quietly a deadly assassin against right-handed hitters. There’s only one catch: Both pitches reached peak whiffability early. If hitters adjust to them, Tanaka will have to settle for being one of the best swing-and-miss pitchers instead of arguably the best.
Hittability
Just as much of a surprise as the whiffs is how good of a ground-ball pitcher Tanaka turned out to be. Part of that has to do with how good his splitter is at getting ground balls, but his sinker can do its part too. Tanaka doesn’t have the easiest time limiting hard contact when the ball isn’t on the ground, though, as he isn’t immune to line drives and home runs that stem from all the long fly balls he gives up.
Workhorse
This is where we finally acknowledge that Tanaka’s right elbow may be a ticking time bomb. He’s managed to avoid Tommy John surgery since being diagnosed with a partially torn UCL in July, but it’s still fair to call him an injury risk. Especially knowing that all this is following over 1,300 innings in Japan. Him lasting through 2015 like nothing ever happened is an iffy proposal.
Overall
The big question with Tanaka now is whether he can avoid Tommy John surgery. If he can’t, it’s likely we won’t see him fully healthy until 2016. But right now, that he's surprisingly avoiding Tommy John leaves us to ponder his fascinating outlook for 2015: We can't count on him being healthy, but we can count on him being terrific if he is.
49. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies
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Hitting
That Nolan Arenado is a better hitter at Coors Field, that he’s struggled to hit pitches above the belt and that he’s regressed as a line-drive hitter must all be noted. However, he’s also toned his approach down while also making more contact. He’s gotten much better at hitting slow stuff and at hitting fastballs away. Though he’s not as good as his average says he is, Arenado is getting better.
Power
Arenado’s power has also improved, and not just because of Coors Field. He’s been hitting the ball in the air more often, and he has also hit fly balls and line drives to left field more regularly. Rightfully so, as pretty much everything he’s hit in that direction has gone for extra bases. So while it’s true Arenado can be a power threat just by showing up to work at Coors Field, he’s made himself into an even better power threat.
Baserunning
It doesn’t look like Arenado is in any hurry to be a stolen-base threat, as he’s once again put himself in the 0-5 steal range. There is progress afoot with his aggressiveness, however. It’s a modest gain, but his XBT% has gone from 29 percent to 36 percent, with the most notable thing being more activity going first to third. He's turned into a solid baserunner.
Defense
Arenado was the NL’s answer to Manny Machado in 2013, and one of the defensive metrics still sees him as being elite at the hot corner. He combines quick reactions with smooth movements to cover ground, and he has the combination of a quick release and a rocket arm. His hands probably aren’t as good as Machado’s, but that’s not enough of a concern to consider him anything less than superb.
Total
There are gripes about how Arenado’s offensive numbers have been inflated by Coors Field, but there’s also credit to be dished out. He’s a better hitter than the one he was a year ago. That combined with his excellent defense at the hot corner makes Arenado one of the game’s more under-the-radar great players.
48. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
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Hitting
There’s a bit of Miguel Cabrera in Freddie Freeman in that he manages to be a hyper-aggressive swinger and a discerning swinger at the same time. And though he can get out of whack against slow stuff and his zone coverage against hard stuff is somewhat lacking, Freeman’s freakish and ever-improving ability to hit line drives is a habit that will ensure his average never strays far from .300.
Power
The downside of Freeman’s line-drive approach is that it suppresses his fly-ball habit, helping to ensure that he’ll be more of a doubles-power guy than a home run hitter. So while he certainly has the raw power to hit 25 or more home runs on a consistent basis, it’s becoming less of a sure bet that he ever will. As such, it’s a good thing that his doubles power involves using every inch of the field.
Baserunning
It takes a lot to get Freeman’s 6’5”, 225-pound frame moving, so don’t expect him to become a base stealer anytime soon. However, he’s showing this year with a solid 39 XBT% that he can put his long strides to use taking extra bases. For a first baseman, that’ll do fine for progress.
Defense
The defensive metrics aren’t loving Freeman’s defense at first as much as they did in 2013, but this is a situation where the eye test disagrees. Freeman may not be quick on his feet, but his tall frame can help him in the range department. And while it may not be reflected in this year’s leaderboard, good anticipation and hands make Freeman one of the better scoopers in the business at first base.
Overall
Though Freeman has been inconsistent through 2014 and his home run power isn’t and may never be as good as it should be, he’s among the few high-ceiling hitters left in the game and can also play some dandy defense at first base.
47. Yasiel Puig, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Hitting
Yasiel Puig’s improved approach isn’t a secret anymore, but it’s worth repeating that he’s swung, chased and whiffed less than he did in 2013. In particular, he hasn’t been nearly as prone to whiff on slow stuff outside the zone. And though he puts a lot of trust in his ground-ball habit, that he’s had the same amount of luck the last two years says he can make it work. All he has to do now is work on hitting outside pitches.
Power
Puig isn’t lacking for raw power, and it’s easy to admire how he doesn’t waste line drives on singles that often thanks largely to excellent power in the gaps. But his home run power...well, maybe not so much. It’s limited by a relatively infrequent fly-ball habit, and even more limited by how seldom he pulls the ball in the air to left field. Though easily above average, his power potential is less than elite.
Baserunning
It was easy to figure last year that Puig’s baserunning misadventures would be a learning experience. Apparently not. He’s still a lousy base stealer, he still has a big problem running into outs on the bases, and his 46 XBT% is down from last year’s 58 percent. He certainly can be a terrific baserunner with his speed, but he so far hasn’t proved to be one.
Defense
This is, of course, assuming that Puig returns to a full-time role in right field in 2015. The defensive metrics are convinced that’s where he belongs anyway, and they’re not wrong. Puig’s outstanding arm is a better fit for right than center, and his speed is better equipped to make up for his occasionally iffy reads and routes in right than it is in center.
Total
Puig’s sophomore season is a tough one to figure. The advancements he’s made with his hitting are absolutely worth celebrating and have allowed him to continue being a very good player. But his power, baserunning and defense have either gotten worse or refused to improve. As such, we look forward to 2015 still able to discuss how great Puig might be rather than how great he is.
46. Russell Martin, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Hitting
Russell Martin has been going crazy with walks this year, and it’s not out of nowhere given that he’s always had terrific awareness of the strike zone. That his average has also skyrocketed is due to something new. He’s never been better at squaring all pitch types up for line drives, and he has a good up-the-middle and opposite-field approach going on. The catch? That would be that breaking balls still give him trouble.
Power
As is usually the case, Martin reinventing himself into more of an average hitter has cost him some power. It doesn’t help that his fly-ball habit is continuing on a downward trend linked to a declining ability to get underneath hard stuff. He’s also hardly used his pull side for power, which is the only direction he has any real power. With all this happening on the wrong side of 30, a turnaround likely isn’t happening.
Baserunning
Martin’s long been one of the league’s better baserunning catchers, and his 39 XBT% says he can still get around the bases very well when he has to. But he hasn’t been stealing bases with his usual success rate. And knowing that he’s 31 and that he’s added a leg injury to a growing list of aches and pains in recent years, expecting improvement isn’t such a good idea here, either.
Defense
With a 93.5 Z-Strike% and a 16.5 O-Strike%, Martin hasn’t stopped being one of the league’s elite receivers behind the dish. He’s also still good at keeping passed balls and wild pitches from happening and is doing a terrific job of shutting down the running game for a second year in a row. That’s what you get with a catcher who has a quick pop and release to go with his arm strength.
Overall
It’s a shame that Martin’s power has vanished and that his best baserunning days appear to be over. But his reinvention as a hitter and excellent well-rounded defense make him one of the better players in the game. Suffice it to say that he doesn’t get nearly the recognition he deserves.
45. Hisashi Iwakuma, SP, Seattle Mariners
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Control
Hisashi Iwakuma’s working on an absurdly low walk rate, so you’ll be surprised to hear he’s not actually pounding the zone that much more than he did in 2013. But he is finding the bottom of the zone with his hard stuff more frequently, setting hitters up to swing over his slider and splitter. It’s a dandy approach that leaves room for only one gripe: Iwakuma goes right down the middle against righties too often.
Whiffability
Iwakuma hasn’t been more than an average strikeout artist since he came into the league, and that much hasn’t changed this year. His swinging-strike rate is actually down, in part because none of his pitches have become harder to hit. Even his splitter—which is a darn good one—isn’t particularly great at getting whiffs, as it’s cut out more for inducing weak contact. But on that note...
Hittability
Iwakuma’s splitter is a terrific ground-ball pitch, resulting in a grounder about 70 percent of the time it’s in play. His sinker is also a good ground-ball pitch and is now his primary fastball. The catch is that he isn’t actually working with a hugely elevated ground-ball rate, in part thanks to how all his offerings have been easier to hit for line drives. That and the reality that fly balls off him tend to be deep are red flags.
Workhorse
Iwakuma’s been maybe the most efficient pitcher in baseball this year, so it comes as no surprise that he hasn’t even needed 100 pitches to average seven innings per start. And even though he’s not unhittable, the efficiency with which he pitches shouldn’t go away. So why worry? Mainly because it’s easy to forget that Iwakuma’s a mid-30s pitcher who logged plenty of innings in Japan before coming over.
Overall
Watching Iwakuma pitch is fun, as he’s one of those guys who has both the mind and the command to toy with hitters for as long as he’s out there. The only complaints worth making is that it feels like he should be a better strikeout artist than he is, and then how he doesn’t have the stuff to get away with the rare mistakes he does make.
44. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
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Hitting
Edwin Encarnacion’s insistence on being an extreme fly-ball hitter makes it tough to hit for average. He’s a bit too pull-happy, and he’s also too willing to give pitchers the outer third of the zone. What makes his approach work is his selectiveness. He loves pitches on the inner two-thirds of the zone, and he’s not in the habit of missing them. Factor in how he doesn’t often expand the zone, and you get a quality hitter.
Power
The bright side about Encarnacion’s fly-ball style is how many of the fly balls he hits are deep drives to left field, which is largely a function of his in-zone selectiveness. What you worry about, however, is if he may not be done battling leg injuries now that he’s 31 going on 32. If not, his 30- to 40-homer power potential could suffer due to the lack of a consistently strong base.
Baserunning
Encarnacion was a double-digit steal guy as recently as 2012, but he didn’t keep it up in 2013 and very likely won’t even make it to five steals by the end of 2014. He’s also been more of a station-to-station guy, going from 45-ish XBT% rates in 2013 to under 40. Knowing his age and the warning his body just issued him about pushing his legs, I wouldn’t expect his baserunning to get any better.
Defense
Encarnacion is a DH disguised as a first baseman, and the defensive metrics say it shows. He’s had problems with errors, and he’s not one to save his fielders from errors with frequent scoops. What we can say in support is that he’s not a low-effort guy, as it’s common to see him diving this way and that to make tough plays. Another year on his age will make that tougher, but not too tough.
Overall
It's easy to view Encarnacion as a power-only player, and truth be told, that's what he is for the most part. But it's unfair to view him as some meatheaded slugger, as he has a plate approach that's perfectly designed to tap into his power without also putting him in a position to make too many outs.
43. Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle Mariners
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Hitting
Pitchers aren’t making it easy, giving Kyle Seager fewer fastballs to hit every year. They won’t stop doing that until he starts hitting slow stuff as consistently as he hits hard stuff. It’s therefore good that his line-drive rates against slow stuff are up, and his overall discipline is now fueled by how good he is at picking his spots with slow stuff to boot. That makes him a good hitter with room to get better.
Power
Seager’s power keeps going up, and understandably so in light of the balance he strikes between hitting line drives and fly balls. Anything in the air to his pull side is especially likely to go, and he goes in that direction plenty. The catch? That’s that Seager has no home run power the other way and modest opposite-field power in general. Until he fixes that, his power escalating any further will be tricky.
Baserunning
Seager’s a good athlete, but his baserunning this season has been...well, not good. A second straight year of inefficiency stealing bases could be what convinces him to tone down that act for good. And though his 42 XBT% will do for solid, it’s canceled out by double-digit outs on the basepaths. He’s better than he’s shown, but he’s definitely taken a step backward in the baserunning department.
Defense
A year after they rated him as below average defensively, the defensive metrics are now viewing Seager as a plus defender. That he’s even more sure-handed than usual is helping, and those hands and his quick release help make him one of the better third basemen at coming in on the ball. His range to his left and right isn’t as good, but he has more than enough talent otherwise to be an asset defensively.
Total
Seager’s not making it any easier on himself to continue flying under the radar like he did in 2012 and 2013. Beyond his 20-25 home run power, he’s making improvements to his hitting every year and is a very strong defensive third baseman to boot.
42. Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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Control
When an elbow injury ended Cliff Lee's season in August, that put a Lee-like 1.33 BB/9 rate in the books. He got it through his usual means of pounding the strike zone with a 51.5 zone rate, and he also did his thing of pitching at the knees with his sinker and burying his cutter mainly off the inside edge on his glove side. Though his health betrayed him, he was still himself from a command standpoint.
Whiffability
Lee didn’t have the easiest time getting strikeouts or swinging strikes. He dealt with lesser velocity across the board, and that hurt his sinker and cutter in particular. That Lee’s changeup was better than ever is a bright side, but the velocity concern is real. After losing velocity in an age-35 season that ended in an elbow injury, it’s hard to imagine it coming back next season at age 36.
Hittability
Lee finished his season with the best ground-ball rate of his career, a gift brought to him mainly by his changeup and cutter. But since his sinker is his bread-and-butter pitch, it’s distressing that it’s only getting easier to hit on a line. He’ll have to mix and locate his pitches very well to avoid that becoming a problem. As such, I guess it’s a good thing this is Cliff Lee we’re talking about.
Workhorse
This is the first year that Lee wasn’t good for seven innings per start since 2009, but that’s thanks largely to a couple of rough starts and his final injury-shortened start. If Lee’s healthy in 2015, I’d expect him to get back to being efficient enough to log seven innings on a regular basis. The only thing that bothers me is the “if” in that sentence, as it can’t be brushed aside in light of Lee’s age and elbow scare.
Overall
Because 2014 saw Lee struggle with lesser stuff and, ultimately, a season-ending elbow injury means we shouldn’t count on him being one of baseball’s elite pitchers going forward. But as long as he can come back with his same pinpoint command and general pitchability, he should at least still have a spot among baseball’s great pitchers.
41. Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves
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Control
Julio Teheran may be throwing fewer fastballs, but upping the frequency with which he finds the zone with his slider, curveball and changeup has helped keep his walk rate low. He’s also good at locating his hard stuff on the edges, but that does come with one catch. He’s better at it against lefties than he is against righties. Since he had the same issue in 2013, maybe banking on improvement isn’t the best idea.
Whiffability
Teheran’s strikeout rate has declined, but he’s doing fine getting swinging strikes. That he has two breaking balls in his slider and curveball that are good, if not quite great, swing-and-miss pitches is a big help there. What’s iffier is whether his four-seamer can sustain its respectable whiffability going forward. Though he’s only 23, Teheran has always lost a mile per hour off his 2013 velocity.
Hittability
That Teheran is an extreme fly-ball pitcher means home runs are a constant threat, especially given that he doesn’t exactly specialize in getting pop-ups. He’s able to largely avoid home runs, however. That he mixes and locates his pitches well helps, as it makes it tough for batters to really square him up. That shows up in his fly-ball heat map, which is littered with can-of-corn fly balls.
Workhorse
After last year’s 185.2 innings, Teheran has come back to average just about seven innings on only 100 pitches this year. His efficiency—highlighted by his good control and modest strikeout habit—surely helps, and he’s also shown that he can maintain velocity well deep into games. And with him not even in his age-24 season yet, his arm should be a long way away from being overtaxed.
Overall
Teheran’s biggest fault is that his relatively modest ability to get swings and misses means he’s awfully dependent on his fly-ball approach keeping the ball in the yard. But he does a fine job of making that approach work, and he’s quietly developed into one of the top innings-eaters in the league.
40. Phil Hughes, SP, Minnesota Twins
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Control
Phil Hughes has always been good at attacking the zone, but this season is seeing him outpace everybody in zone percentage by a significant margin. It helps that about 85 percent of his pitches are fastballs or cutters. And while we could raise issue with how he tends to live in the middle of the zone, it seems pointless in light of how he rarely ever misses it. He’s a proverbial strike-throwing machine.
Whiffability
Hughes picks up no shortage of strikes, but he hasn’t been that much better than the average starter at picking up strikeouts. And he’s also been roughly average at getting whiffs. That he’s around the zone so much doesn’t help, and he doesn’t have overpowering velocity at 92-93. He also has just one secondary pitch, and it’s a curveball that isn’t hard to hit.
Hittability
Target Field isn’t entirely to thank for Hughes’ home run rate dropping, as deep fly balls haven’t been as frequent in 2014 as they were in 2013. It helps that he has his cutter to give hitters something to think about, and it’s also helped him by boosting his (albeit still very much modest) ground-ball rate. So while you still worry about Hughes’ old gopheritis problem, he’s legitimately gotten it under better control.
Workhorse
Even getting as many as five innings out of Hughes was an accomplishment in 2013. That makes his new normal of six-plus innings on less than 100 pitches a huge upgrade. That’s a gift of his extreme efficiency and getting the home runs under control. He’ll keep it up if he maintains this year’s approach, and he still has another year to go before he hits 30.
Overall
The Twins had the right idea when they gambled on Hughes last winter, but even they probably didn’t think it would pan out this well. And give Hughes his share of the credit, as going for broke by assaulting the strike zone while also incorporating a cutter has worked like a charm.
39. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
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Hitting
For the most part, Miguel Cabrera is still a superb hitter. He deftly toes the line between discipline and aggressiveness, his plate coverage is still excellent and he still has an Ichiro Suzuki-like ability to aim his hits. But he hasn’t fixed the elevated whiff rate against breaking balls he developed in 2013, and anything over 92 mph has become more of a challenge. Good health might fix that, but we should take neither that nor vintage bat speed for granted knowing that he’s headed for his age-32 season.
Power
This is where Cabrera’s assorted injuries have really hurt. Not having a healthy base has made both turning on the ball and driving it the other way difficult, rendering what was explosive power to all fields in 2013, well, less explosive power to all fields in 2014. And though we’re not taking a return to vintage form for granted, the bright side is 25-homer potential with lots of doubles is reasonable.
Baserunning
Cabrera was actually a sneaky base stealer in 2012 and 2013, but he’s wisely spared his body from the effort in 2014. Despite that, he’s moved quite well when he’s had to, with the main attraction being his XBT% rising from 28 to 39 percent. If the extra-base hits continue to be less frequent in 2015, it’s possible we’ll see him keep it up.
Defense
The defensive metrics like Cabrera more as a first baseman than they ever did as a third baseman, and that’s not surprising. Though he hasn’t been a master at picking throws out of the dirt and is still very much limited range-wise, his footwork and reactions have resembled those of a seasoned first baseman. While short of great, Cabrera’s defense at first base has at least been good.
Overall
Let’s acknowledge that Cabrera is still a fantastic baseball player and that he’s actually quietly improved in two areas (baserunning and defense) where he had been very weak. But his once-unrivaled bat has been diminished by lingering health issues, and he’s not about to get any healthier or younger.
38. Jake Arrieta, SP, Chicago Cubs
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Control
Jake Arrieta has been throwing his slider (that’s what he calls it) more often and has been very effective using it to play with the edges of the zone against both lefties and righties. Though his fastball command isn’t quite as sharp—especially against righties—it’s hardly bad. Between that and what he can do with his slider, Arrieta has the options to get strikes that he lacked when he arrived in Chicago.
Whiffability
Arrieta’s rebirth has also featured plenty of strikeouts and swinging strikes, and it’s not just because of his slider that he’s getting those. He has a 93-94 fastball that he can throw by hitters, as well as a changeup and a curve that boast borderline elite whiffability. With him still being on the good side of 30 and his arm relatively well-preserved, these weapons shouldn’t abandon him anytime soon.
Hittability
Arrieta’s rebirth also features a career-best ground-ball rate. You’d expect as much from a guy who leans heavily on his sinker and slider, and both pitches are pretty good at getting grounders. To boot, when he’s not getting grounders, Arrieta’s getting his share of pop-ups and shallow fly balls. When you mix good velocity with good movement and good location, this is basically what you get.
Workhorse
That Arrieta set a new career high for innings when he hit 119.1 innings says a lot about his lackluster track record—which has been shaped in part by elbow and shoulder injuries—and he’s only been about a six-inning pitcher besides. No wonder, as his inning-to-inning velocity chart shows he’s quick to tire. He’s made a solid first step toward becoming a top workhorse, but he still has work to do.
Overall
The Cubs made a good roll of the dice when they took on Arrieta as a reclamation project, but here’s guessing he’s probably surpassed even their expectations. Though durability is still something of a question mark, Arrieta has harnessed both his stuff and his command to become a pitcher who can carve up lineups in a number of different ways.
37. Josh Harrison, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Hitting
Josh Harrison is still an aggressive and undisciplined hitter with a whiff habit. To that last point, he’s notably gotten worse at making contact with slow stuff. But when you look at how he’s gotten better at hitting everything hard, using the opposite field and covering the strike zone, you do come away believing in his breakout at least a little bit. He’s been lucky, but that can happen when you make your own luck.
Power
After never hitting more than three homers in a season, Harrison is now a legit power threat. How he’s done it traces back to the point that he’s simply hitting the ball well and doing it all over the yard to boot. His power in the right-center gap has been especially impressive. But while he’s clearly improved, his numbers have been padded by doubles down the left field line that have been a little too frequent.
Baserunning
Harrison could steal a base in a pinch before, but he’s done so in more than just a pinch in 2014. Though he hasn’t done it with the greatest efficiency, he’s put himself within range of 20 stolen bases even despite relatively limited playing time for a good portion of the year. Add in a 48 XBT%, and you get a guy who could be a darn good baserunner over the course of a full season.
Defense
With Pedro Alvarez banished, the hot corner is Harrison’s home. The defensive metrics like what they’ve seen from him, and they should knowing that he’s played third with good hands and good range stemming from quick reactions. These things help make up for the fringy arm he has for the position. And though he has a home at third, here’s thinking the Pirates aren’t about to stop taking advantage of his outstanding versatility.
Total
It’s hard to ignore the feeling that Harrison’s 2014 season is just a big tease. At least until you notice how regularly he’s been clobbering the ball and how he’s also been running the bases and playing good defense all over the diamond, including at his new third base home. He looks like a Ben Zobrist clone, which is very high praise.
36. Yu Darvish, SP, Texas Rangers
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Control
The walks continue to become more infrequent for Yu Darvish, and he’s earned it. His zone rate has climbed to a new high this year, in part because he's simplified things by going to his fastball more. The next step should be (hopefully) honing his fastball command, as he merely flirts with the zone against lefties and goes right down the middle too often against righties.
Whiffability
Darvish is still the game’s top strikeout artist, but he’s quietly not getting as many swinging strikes. A main problem is how his increased fastball usage has coincided with fewer whiffs on his fastball. That his velocity has gone down hasn’t helped. Still, it’s hard to doubt the guy. An increased presence in the zone means more strikes, period, and he still has his utterly devastating slider to put to good use.
Hittability
Darvish still isn’t easy to hit, but there are good reasons why he’s on track to post the highest batting average against of his brief career. His ground-ball rate is plummeting, a byproduct of him going to his fastball more. It’s also become easier to hit everything he throws for line drives, and his fly-ball heat map strongly suggests there should be more home runs on his record. Frankly, none of this bodes well.
Workhorse
Better control has meant more efficient outings for Darvish, and it shows in how he’s been good for close to seven innings on fewer pitches than usual. That makes the only real concern his injury track record. There are new additions on it seemingly every week, and his recent elbow scare is the scariest one yet. So despite his youth and growing efficiency, caution is necessary.
Overall
This is one of those scores that feels a lot lower than it should be, especially knowing that Darvish has only become more efficient with his pitches while remaining an elite strikeout artist. But the cracks are there. He’s become easier to hit, both in terms of making contact and making good contact, and his injury track record isn’t getting any cleaner. Moving ahead, these are some real concerns.
35. Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta Braves
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Hitting
Jason Heyward’s approach is the best it’s ever been, as he’s combining strong patience and discipline with career-best contact. He’s also hitting slow pitches for line drives better, and he spreads his ground balls around better than most lefties. The catch to all this is that Heyward’s uppercut swing is still restricting his production above the knees. With no clear way to fix that, his hitting potential only goes so high.
Power
Another issue Heyward has is that he tends to inflate his fly-ball rate with pop-ups. Take that and combine it with his ground-ball rate, and you’re only left with so many well-hit balls. His power isn’t as bad as this year’s production makes it look, however. He can give the ball a ride to any field, and he’d have better numbers if he had more results up the middle. He still has above-average power.
Baserunning
After slowing it down on the basepaths in an injury-marred 2013, Heyward has put himself back in the 20-steal discussion this year, and with better efficiency to boot. It’s too bad his XBT% has dropped from above 60 in 2012 to just 46 this year, but that’s still good by corner outfielder standards. That Heyward still doesn’t run into outs on the basepaths is another thing he does well.
Defense
With respect to Alex Gordon, Heyward gets my vote as the best defensive corner outfielder in the business. The defensive metrics rightfully have him pegged as a huge asset in right field. His arm is a weapon, and he gets range from combining good reads and routes with the long strides his 6’5” frame allows. He’s the total package and has really never been better defensively.
Total
Heyward’s bat comes with some limitations and it looks like his power peaked in 2012, but these are minor gripes in the grand scheme of his talent. He’s at least a good hitter and baserunner, and he’s arguably the best defensive player in the game today.
34. Zack Greinke, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Control
Because fastballs account for just over 50 percent of Zack Greinke’s pitches, it’s not a shock to see him hitting the zone less frequently than the average starter. And yet he’s having one of his more prolific years putting fastballs on the edge of the zone anyway, and that speaks to his pitching style in general. Take a look at everything he throws, and you notice he rarely gives lefties or righties anything good to hit.
Whiffability
Greinke’s strikeout rate has returned with a vengeance. It helps to have one of the highest chase rates in baseball, a byproduct of his ability to play with the edges of the zone. Trouble is that his slider is not the swing-and-miss pitch it used to be, and his four-seamer’s increased whiffability is suspect knowing that his velocity is now just 91-92. With his age-31 season on deck, keeping that up won’t be easy.
Hittability
Greinke has become a virtual lock for a ground-ball rate in the 45-50 percent range, which isn’t surprising given how he can put an assortment of pitches in areas where they’re hard to elevate. But the line-drive rates on his key secondaries are up this year, and he’s not immune to homers. When the smoke and mirrors fail, he can be hit.
Workhorse
This is pre-emptive caution. Greinke has been good for over six innings and 100 pitches once again, but he’s had elbow scares two years in a row. Because he’s now on the wrong side of 30 and he has a pitching style that involves throwing a fair number of breaking balls, this can’t be ignored. He’ll be fine if he stays healthy, but we shouldn’t rely too heavily on that.
Overall
Greinke has made the transition from fastball-slider power pitcher to everything-but-the-kitchen sink finesse pitcher look easier than it has any right to be. If he stays healthy, he should be able to keep it up. But that’s also our big concern, and a well-warranted one given his recent elbow scares.
33. Dallas Keuchel, SP, Houston Astros
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Control
Dallas Keuchel has taken a much-improved walk rate from 2013 and made it even better. Rather than do it by pounding the strike zone—which he doesn’t do much—he keeps batters on their toes by living on the edges. He’s especially good at sticking to the outside corner against lefties, and he frequently visits the outside corner against righties too. The one caveat is that his misses against righties have a tendency to be in hittable areas.
Whiffability
Keuchel’s a below-average strikeout artist, and it makes sense that he is knowing that his approach is primarily based on seeking ground balls with his sinker (more on this in a moment). But he's not a below-average whiff artist thanks to one pitch in particular: his slider. It’s quietly one of the most whiffable sliders in the game, and it’s a fine tool for Keuchel to get whiffs.
Hittability
You’re looking at baseball’s top ground-ball pitcher, and it’s not really close. This speaks to the quality of his sinker, which is the ground-ball-iest sinker among starters. That alone is worthy of some props, but we’ll stop short of calling Keuchel perfect. With velocity that only extends as high as 90 miles per hour, his home run-per-fly-ball rate is a reminder that he can’t make mistakes with his stuff.
Workhorse
The one knock on Keuchel is that he lacks a track record as an innings-eater. But limiting walks and getting a lot of ground balls is a fine way to be efficient, and it shows in how he’s averaged about seven innings on barely over 100 pitches, with a handful of complete games to boot. He may not have a track record as an innings-eater, but this is the beginning of him building a good one.
Overall
A complete afterthought in 2013, Keuchel has made himself into one of the top starting pitchers in the game. All it’s taken is sharp control, a devastating slider and a sinker that basically nobody can hit. Other struggling pitchers should take note.
32. Christian Yelich, LF, Miami Marlins
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Hitting
Christian Yelich is liable to whiff on off-speed pitches and can’t do much with slow stuff in general. But next to those shortcomings is the good stuff. Namely, an extremely discerning approach, an endless supply of line drives and ground balls, and the bat control to poke the former to left field and the latter wherever. With a foundation like this, it would not be surprising if Yelich soon starts contending for batting titles.
Power
When you rarely hit the ball in the air, power isn’t easy to come by. That Yelich generally disregards his pull side is another complication. That he doesn’t hit pop-ups, however, allows him to make his fly balls count. He also has the pop to get the ball over the left fielder’s head for extra-base hits, and he knows where the right-center gap is. It’s not great power, but it’s better than it looks.
Baserunning
A solid base stealer in the minors, Yelich has done enough to establish himself as a solid base stealer in the majors too. He’s surpassed 20 steals with solid efficiency in his first full season, and he’s also working on a 52 XBT% that features only a couple of unforgivable outs on the basepaths. Even if he doesn’t do any better, 20-steal potential with that kind of aggressiveness is good stuff.
Defense
The defensive metrics love what they’re seeing from Yelich in 2014, rating him as easily above average in left field. That he doesn’t have a strong arm is a key weakness, but his range is terrific for left field. He doesn’t always get the best jumps, but he runs smooth routes and uses his plus speed to cover ground. He may not be the best all-around left fielder, but he might be the rangiest.
Total
Yelich is overshadowed by the behemoth who plays across the way in right field, but he’s proved to be a terrific player in his own right. His hitting isn't perfect yet, but he clearly has a rake that should get better with time. Add in well-above-average baserunning and defense, and you have one of the more overlooked gems in MLB.
31. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs
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Hitting
The big change for Anthony Rizzo in 2014 involves his sudden ability to hit left-handers, which can be traced to his improvement against their breaking stuff. He’s further helped himself by becoming slightly more selective with the fastballs he swings at, and he’s solved last year’s BABIP troubles by hitting everything for line drives more consistently. There are still more holes in Rizzo’s zone coverage than you’d prefer to see, but overall, he’s made himself into a legit hitter.
Power
Rizzo has also improved his power tool in 2014, mainly by hitting more fly balls. That’s especially helpful in his case because of his considerable raw power, which he’s displayed by bombarding the bleachers in left-center as well as in right field. The only gripe worth making is that it’s odd to see a powerful lefty batter so rarely make use of the right-center gap.
Baserunning
Rizzo should probably give up trying to steal bases if he’s going to fail as often as he succeeds like he has these last two years. Then there’s how Rizzo’s XBT% has gone from 41 in 2012 to 38 in 2013 to 32 this year. It would appear that hitting like a slugger is causing him to run like one, too.
Defense
The defensive metrics aren’t going crazy for Rizzo’s defense like they did in 2013, and he can thank both an uptick in errors and less frequent rangy plays for that. The good news is you can still find him leading the way in first base scoops, and the good first step and easy burst that allowed him to make so many rangy plays in 2013 are still there.
Overall
Rizzo always had it in him to be a complete threat as a first baseman. Thanks to the improvements he’s made against left-handers and his enhanced abilities to hit line drives and make his raw power show up in games, that’s what we’ve seen him become. Good stuff for a guy who's barely 25.
30. Alex Cobb, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
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Control
There are two reasons Alex Cobb is likely to never be elite at avoiding walks: He rarely throws fastballs, and he rarely visits the strike zone. And yet he makes it work thanks to an uncanny ability to live on the edges of the zone with his heat, and he basically never hangs either his curveball or his split-change. That puts his command in the “Better Than It Looks” file.
Whiffability
Because he throws just 91-92 and relies exclusively on his sinker, Cobb’s not one to blow hitters away. And truth be told, he’s not a great strikeout artist. But he is a swing-and-miss artist, as he buys himself plenty of swings outside the zone and both his curveball and his split-change are outstanding whiff pitches. With him putting more and more trust in these pitches, the whiffs should keep coming.
Hittability
Because Cobb goes heavy on the slow stuff while staying out of the fat part of the zone, that he’s an elite ground-ball pitcher who also avoids line drives makes sense. But this is thanks mainly to his curve and split. His sinker is mediocre at getting ground balls by sinker standards and isn't impossible to take for a ride. And though he doesn’t like to throw it, it’s also a pitch he can’t avoid throwing entirely.
Workhorse
Injuries have helped to conspire against Cobb establishing himself as a top workhorse, and he didn’t get a reprieve this year when an oblique strain sidelined him for a month. He’s also only been about a six-inning pitcher when he has been healthy. This is partially thanks to his approach. It mainly works fine, but it can lead to high pitch counts and short outings when he’s not getting the swings he requires.
Overall
Cobb’s starts are worth watching if for no other reason than there aren’t many pitchers with a style like his. And it works well, as pitching off his slow stuff with good command can make for quite a few ugly swings throughout the course of an outing. Now all he needs is a full season to maximize his potential. Maybe he’ll get it in 2015.
29. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
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Control
Stephen Strasburg has been limiting walks better than ever, and it’s no mirage. Already one to attack the zone, he’s been pouring more heaters into the zone and also hasn’t been shy about putting his secondaries in the zone. When he does, he frequently puts them at the knees. He’s not above making mistakes, however. Righty batters who have seen quite a few heaters down the middle can vouch.
Whiffability
When you have both a changeup and a curveball that rank among the hardest to hit in the game, you’re going to get your share of whiffs. When you can also blow hitters away with a fastball that sits 94-95, you’re going to get even more whiffs. The inevitable catch is that said fastball was 95-96 in 2012 and 2013. If it drops again in 2015, Strasburg will need even more out of his excellent change and curve.
Hittability
Making contact against Strasburg is difficult, but making hard contact isn’t. Particularly when it comes to his fastball, which has become easy to square up for line drives and hard-hit fly balls. That his secondaries get ground balls is his saving grace, but his fastball issues trace back to how major league hitters can time a fastball.
Workhorse
Whereas he didn’t even after six innings per start back in 2012, he’s now good for over six and around 100 pitches. His strikeout habit does elevate his pitch count, however, and Washington’s caution with him has helped make eight-inning starts few and far between. He’s also prone to shorter outings thanks to his increased hittability. It all makes 200 innings still the goal rather than the expectation.
Overall
There’s no question that Strasburg has the control and the stuff to be an elite pitcher. Especially the stuff, as his changeup and curveball in particular are simply sublime. It’s too bad he’s becoming easier to knock around on days when he’s not sharp, and he still hasn’t transformed into one of the league’s top workhorses.
28. Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants
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Control
Despite his funky delivery, Madison Bumgarner’s better than the average starter at finding the strike zone. And his control is especially pinpoint with his slider/cutter/slutter thing, as he’s able to spot it off the same corner—outside to lefties, inside to righties—with regularity. His command with his four-seamer is less fine, however, as he rarely keeps it low and is prone to missing up and away on his arm side.
Whiffability
In addition to his usual deceptiveness, Bumgarner is now enjoying a spike in his fastball velocity. He sits 92-93, and his four-seamer’s whiffability has risen to a point where it rivals his curveball. That makes it two years in a row that his four-seamer has been an elite swing-and-miss pitch, and more whiffs do tend to be a benefit of pitching up in the zone as often as he does. As such, maybe he can avoid regression.
Hittability
You can count on Bumgarner’s ground-ball rate being in the mid-40s like clockwork, mainly thanks to his slider/cutter/slutter thing and his ability to locate it. Many a hitter has been jammed by that pitch. But what you worry about is how his four-seamer is prone to both line drives and home runs even despite its rising velocity. As nice as whiffs are, that’s what you risk when you pitch up in the zone.
Workhorse
Bumgarner has provided his usual six to seven innings and 100 pitches per start this year and, perhaps more importantly, actually held his newfound velocity pretty well from inning to inning and month to month. With an efficient pitching style and a blank injury history heading into what will only be his age-25 season in 2015, there’s no reason to expect Bumgarner to become less reliable.
Overall
That Bumgarner isn’t impossible to knock around due to his insistence on pitching up in the zone is a concern, but it’s one of few. His funky delivery doesn’t keep him from having great control, and he’s hardly incapable of missing bats or inducing weak contact. Pretty good for a guy who only recently turned 25.
27. Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
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Control
Adam Wainwright’s been at it again. He’s limited walks by actually pounding the zone more often than in 2013, and he has consistently pounded lefties both in and out and righties around the outside corner. He has given us a cause for concern, however, as July and August saw him go through a stretch where he struggled to throw strikes from a slightly different arm slot. It could be nothing, but it's also nothing to ignore.
Whiffability
Wainwright’s strikeouts and swinging strikes are both down, with part of the problem being a dreaded velocity loss. Because he’s already 33, that velocity is likely gone for good. That’ll leave the responsibility of getting whiffs up to his curveball, and it’s unfortunately slowly losing some of its own whiffability. As such, Wainwright isn’t likely to stop being a modest whiff artist.
Hittability
With his ground-ball rate descending amid declining velocity, it’s no surprise that Wainwright’s line-drive rate and fly-ball rates are up. The reality that he hasn’t given up many deep fly balls, however, speaks to his ability to keep hitters off-balance. It also bodes well that he’s gone back to putting his trust in his sinker and cutter, which are harder to square up than his four-seamer. As such, this is a case where craftiness is visible and very much a welcome sight.
Workhorse
Wainwright has picked up where he left off in 2013, putting in seven innings and 100 pitches every time he pitches. This is also a guy who pitched over 270 innings last year between the regular season and October, as well as a guy who’s the size of a horse at 6’7” and 235. But with his age-33 season coming and an elbow scare in his recent past, Wainwright’s track record may not be a blueprint for his future.
Overall
Though Wainwright's had a great season, he has provided reasons to worry. His typically superb control got less superb for a while there, he’s had issues missing bats and the elbow scare he had isn’t a good look in light of his age. But hey, as much as we may want to worry, we're still talking about one of the game's great pitchers.
26. Jon Lester, SP, Oakland A's
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Control
It’s a good sign when a guy’s walk rate is going nowhere but down. Jon Lester’s getting it done by attacking the strike zone with his fastball and cutter like never before, and he does so without making mistakes. He adheres to the outside corner against lefties and pitches low and on both sides of the plate against righties. Behold a guy who’s become one of the game’s top control artists.
Whiffability
Lester’s painting has helped him rack up strikeouts, as he’s getting plenty of looking strikeouts. But he’s also gotten more swinging strikes, with more whiffs on his four-seamer and cutter being largely to thank for that. But because Lester’s average fastball velocity has already dropped from 92-93 to more like 91-92, keeping that going in 2015 will be tough knowing that another velocity drop is likely at age 31.
Hittability
Lester’s painting has also gotten him plenty of weak contact in 2014, with his four-seamer getting the pop-ups and his cutter getting the ground balls. His overall ground-ball rate, however, is actually trending downward. Also, the four-seamer and cutter he relies on so much attract line drives. In light of that and how both pitches are likely due for a velocity loss, gathering weak contact may get more difficult.
Workhorse
Lester’s gone seven innings and thrown around 110 pitches like clockwork all year. This is what happens when you take a 200-inning pitcher and give him elite command. His velocity does peak early in games, however, and there does need to be at least some worry about him keeping it up in his age-31 season after having pitched so many innings between last season and this season.
Overall
We can quibble about whether Lester’s going to be able to maintain this year’s whiffability and general avoidance of hard contact, but there’s no denying that he’s made himself into a better pitcher. He’s never been in better control of his pitches, and it’s made every aspect of his game that much better.
25. Alex Gordon, LF, Kansas City Royals
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Hitting
One way to beat Alex Gordon is to just throw him a breaking ball. And in general, anything slow is a good bet for a whiff. Fortunately, it’s become extremely difficult to get fastballs by him, and he’s better equipped to attack fastballs now that he’s toned down his aggressiveness outside the zone. And as much as he whiffs on off-speed, he’s also never been better at hitting it hard. So yeah, meet an improved hitter.
Power
The power surge Gordon has enjoyed in the second half was probably coming all along. He’s a good fly-ball hitter, after all. And though he doesn’t hit the ball in the air to his pull side that often, he makes them count when he does. Then you can factor in how he also has some power in the left-center gap, and you get a pretty good picture of what Gordon is: a 20-homer guy with solid doubles power.
Baserunning
Behold easily the most overlooked aspect of Gordon’s game. He’s going to steal 10-15 bases in a season, and even better is how well he rounds the bases. He’s been doing that especially well in 2014, posting a 52 XBT% with frequent first-to-thirds and just one out at second and third base. Baserunning like that is darn good, especially for a corner outfielder.
Defense
You’ve probably heard that the defensive metrics are in love with Gordon’s defense, and they should be. There are better fly-ball catchers than him, but not many because of how well he combines his solid speed with good reads and routes. Then there’s his superb arm. It doesn’t get tested as much anymore, but FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan did a fine job of outlining how there’s value in that.
Total
This score surely comes off as being criminally low for a guy who’s rated as one of the best players in the game by WAR. All I’ll say is that you have to keep in mind how much credit the defensive metrics are giving Gordon, which might be too much. But even if we downplay WAR’s opinion of Gordon, we’re still looking at a terrific defender who can hit, hit for power and run the bases.
24. Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners
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Hitting
If there’s one thing not to like about Robinson Cano’s hitting, it’s how he’s become such an extreme ground-ball hitter. But seeing how much he’s used left field for ground balls makes you feel better about that, and then you can look at how he basically doesn’t swing and miss, covers a huge amount of the hitting zone and isn’t weak against any particular pitch type. And you realize that, yup, the guy can hit.
Power
After a slow start, Cano’s power has come roaring to life since June. Best of all is how he’s been driving the ball the other way, something he wasn't doing before. However, it is going to be harder for him to hit for power if he keeps hitting so many grounders. And with his 32nd birthday fast approaching, it is more than likely that Cano’s best power days are behind him.
Baserunning
Where there was once power, there is now speed. Beyond notching his first career double-digit-steal season, Cano has also increased last year’s 38 XBT% to 50 percent. Through it all, he’s been arguably Seattle’s best baserunner. There is the worry about this all happening with him on the wrong side of 30, however, so we probably shouldn’t expect him to be quite as prolific in 2015.
Defense
This is where things get tricky. After being split on Cano in 2013, the defensive metrics agree that he’s close to an average defender now. The eye test says there’s some truth to that, as his first-step quickness and subsequent burst just don’t look the same. But since he can still make accurate off-balance throws and get rid of the ball quickly on double plays, I’m inclined to give him a break.
Overall
Because Cano’s power and defense appear to be slipping, there are very real threats to his status as one of the game’s elite players. But if he keeps running the bases like he has in 2014 while also hitting like, well, he always has, the Mariners should keep getting their money’s worth from their $240 million man.
23. Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox
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Hitting
It’s hard to look at Jose Abreu without noticing his extreme aggressiveness and swing-and-miss problem. And yet you can see him adjusting, as his worst whiff rates against hard, breaking and off-speed pitches are behind him and he’s generally gotten more consistent hitting all three for line drives. Then you can factor in how he has zero weak spots within the strike zone, making him out to be a guy who can be successful as a Vlad Guerrero-type hitter moving forward.
Power
Virtually any ball Abreu hits has a chance to go far. Though his power is mainly focused on left field, he’s shown that hitting the ball to and beyond the right field fence isn’t a problem. And while there is something to say about his power decline after the All-Star break, it’s not worth worrying about knowing that he’ll only be 28 and more prepared for a 162-game season in 2015.
Baserunning
Abreu is about as fast as you’d expect a 6’3”, 255-pound guy to be. He hasn’t been active stealing bases in 2014 and shouldn’t be expected to get any more active in the future. He’s also not of much use doing the little things, posting an unspectacular 28 XBT%. These things don’t make him a bad baserunner by first base standards, but they don’t make him a good one either.
Defense
The defensive metrics are split on how good Abreu is, with DRS seeing him as clearly below average and UZR seeing him as slightly above average. The eye test leans more toward the first opinion, as he’s without great hands and is generally slow to get after balls that require him to move more than a couple of feet in any direction.
Overall
That Abreu has flashed the potential to be a 40- to 50-home run guy isn’t the biggest surprise. The real surprise is how well he’s been able to adjust to major league pitching, making it look a lot easier than it should be. He may be an offense-only player, but he’s made it clear that his offensive potential is no joke.
22. Tyson Ross, SP, San Diego Padres
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Control
Tyson Ross doesn’t have the easiest time limiting walks, and there may be no repairing that given his ever-growing reliance on his slider. But he’s also a case of a pitcher whose command is better than his walk rate indicates, with his best talent being his ability to pound the outside corner against both lefties and righties. And for as much as he throws his slider, it’s good to know he rarely ever hangs it.
Whiffability
Ross’ slider is quietly one of the best sliders thrown by any starter, ranking up there among the best of the best in terms of whiffability. And since he goes to it so often, it’s a big reason his swinging-strike rate is as high as it is. His strikeout rate doesn’t match his swinging-strike rate, however, and that may be the case going forward too if his sinker continues to supplant his four-seamer.
Hittability
Ross was already an elite ground-ball pitcher, and now he’s even better. That’s life when you have a sinker that’s hit on the ground roughly 70 percent of the time it’s in play, and it is indeed encouraging that he seems determined to use that sinker more often. But remember that part about him rarely hanging sliders? Well, they do happen, and the problem he has is that hitters don’t tend to miss them.
Workhorse
Ross has been one of the better innings-eaters in the National League this season, regularly going between six and seven innings and throwing 100 pitches. It’s also a good look that he’s throwing harder now than he was at the beginning of the year. But his velocity does tend to peak early in games, and you do have to worry about the elbow of a guy who throws so many sliders.
Overall
Maybe this comes off as being too high for Ross, but it should be hard to deny his talent. His ability to hit the corners is impressive, he has a slider that easily misses bats and a sinker that gets ground balls as well as any other sinker in the game. He looks like the next Corey Kluber: an emerging star who could soon become a superstar.
21. Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Washington Nationals
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Control
Jordan Zimmermann’s four-seam fastball accounts for roughly 70 percent of his pitches and sits at 93-94 miles per hour. So not surprisingly, few attack the strike zone with four-seamers as often as he does. His style involves challenging both lefties and righties up in the zone. Knowing that, it’s actually impressive how infrequently he misses down the middle. Behold a guy who knows what he’s doing.
Whiffability
Zimmermann’s finally getting the strikeouts that his stuff says he should be getting. That’s a gift of all of everything but his curveball gaining whiffability. It’s also helped that his sky-high first-pitch strike rate has allowed him to expand the zone for swinging strikes on his secondaries. He’s taken full advantage. It’s a precise process to repeat, but he has both the control and the stuff to do just that.
Hittability
As you would expect from a guy who relies so heavily on his four-seamer, Zimmermann’s not great at getting ground balls. But pitching up in the zone with good velocity does get him pop-ups, and fly balls off him are generally weakly hit. The key worry, however, is how his line-drive rate has gone up thanks to the line-drive rates on all his individual pitches going up. He’s tough to hit, but not impossible.
Workhorse
The best thing Zimmermann has going for him is his efficiency, as he can easily breeze through six innings on fewer than 100 pitches. And because he’s still only 28 going on 29 and showing no signs of decline, he should be able to continue doing so. What’s odd, however, is that six innings tend to be about his limit more often than not. Him getting to 200 innings is easy, but how far over 200 he can go is iffy.
Overall
As a pitcher, Zimmermann is more effective than exciting. His game is based on command and control, with swings and misses only being added to his bag of tricks this year. But it works, as there are few pitchers who are more reliable on a start-to-start basis than he is.
20. David Price, SP, Detroit Tigers
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Control
David Price is among the elite at finding the zone for strike one, and he doesn’t stop hitting the zone from there. That fastballs and cutters account for about 70 percent of his pitches helps, but he’s also good at locating those pitches. He lives on the outside edge against lefties and against righties, straying over the middle relatively seldom against both. Simple, but definitely very, very effective.
Whiffability
For Price in 2014, the turnaround in both the strikeout and swinging strike departments has been immense, which is what happens when all your pitches gain whiffability. The sustainability of that is a question, though, especially with his heat slowly leaking velocity. A repeat performance will hinge on him continuing to blow fastballs by hitters with less velocity, which is an iffy bet.
Hittability
When Price has given up contact this year, it’s tended to be good contact. His ground-ball rate has fallen once again from its 2012 peak. It’s been about as easy to hit his stuff for line drives as it was in 2013, and much easier to get his hard stuff in the air. And all around, elevating against Price has tended to mean homering off him. If he does indeed lose more velocity, things probably won’t get better.
Workhorse
Price has logged over seven innings and 110 pitches like it’s his job (which, yeah, I suppose it is) on his way to blowing past the 200-inning threshold once again. He’ll also still be on the good side of 30 next year. That leaves just one concern: that the decreased whiffability and increased hittability that likely lie ahead in 2015 will make pitching deep into games that much tougher.
Overall
If it’s right now you want to talk about, Price deserves better than the score I’ve given him. His control is unreal, and all the whiffs he’s getting are helping to make up for the louder contact he’s given up. But we’re looking ahead, and the picture there doesn’t look as bright as it does now. But hey, even a lesser David Price should still be a darn, darn good pitcher.
19. Michael Brantley, LF, Cleveland Indians
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Hitting
Michael Brantley was already a terrific contact hitter with a strong approach, and any such hitter is going to do well more often than not. What’s really changed is that he’s now A) a strong source of line drives and B) a specialist at peppering the opposite field with line drives. He’s made himself into an excellent opposite-field hitter in doing so, and that’s all he needed to do to become a great all-around hitter.
Power
Brantley hasn’t made himself into more of a fly-ball hitter, but his power is up because the balls he hits in the air are going to the right place. He’s been far more consistent hitting the ball in the air to his pull side than he ever was before, and most of what he’s hit in that direction has turned to gold. Provided he can keep this up, continuing to be a 20-homer guy with doubles power is definitely possible.
Baserunning
More power means Brantley hasn’t needed to steal as many bases, but that hasn’t stopped him. He’s a 20-steal guy for the first time, and with excellent efficiency to boot. In light of that, it’s somewhat disappointing that he only has a 41 XBT%, but at least the trade-off is very few outs on the bases. Though it’s Brantley’s hitting that’s gotten him attention, don’t overlook how good his baserunning has been.
Defense
You might be surprised to hear that only one of the defensive metrics has Brantley rated as an above-average left fielder, but he really isn’t perfect. His accurate arm is an asset, to be sure. It’s his range that’s hit or miss, as he can occasionally run tentative routes to the ball. It’s a good thing he can make up for that most of the time, and let’s not overlook that he can also pitch in solid center field defense.
Total
Brantley has turned what had been excellent hitting potential into plain old excellent hitting. That he’s also mixed in a solid combination of power and speed is icing on the cake, and it's the difference between being a good hitter and a terrific all-around player.
18. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals
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Hitting
Anthony Rendon has pulled off the tough trick of being more aggressive while staying disciplined and without sacrificing much contact, and there’s not an area of the field that’s safe when he’s hitting. And though it’s a shame his line-drive rate has decreased, he’s made more solid contact on pitches away from him. Though he’s been prone to ups and downs, Rendon has the makings of a dangerous hitter.
Power
Rendon has made good on last year’s power tease. Simply hitting more fly balls has given him a chance to hit for more power, but he also has the pop to pick up extra-base hits in any direction. It’s not all home run power either, as he can split either gap with a hard line drive. As such, what’s 20-homer power with doubles now stands a pretty solid chance of becoming 25-homer power with doubles.
Baserunning
It’s not just power Rendon has. He has speed too. He's stolen 15 bases with very good efficiency, which is very strong stuff for a third baseman. Not content to stop there, he’s also working on a 55 XBT% that’s a big upgrade over last year’s 41 percent. And all around, there’s a pretty strong case to be made for him as one of baseball’s top baserunners.
Defense
The defensive metrics are split on Rendon, but he’s probably closer to average than above average defensively. While he has good reactions and good range, his throwing errors aren’t the biggest surprise knowing that he has a funky sort of throwing motion. But hey, when you can play at least a solid third base and a good second base, you’re a good guy to have on defense.
Total
It’s by no means a stretch to call Rendon one of the best players in baseball right now. But what’s really scary is that we more than likely haven’t seen his best yet. Already a quality baserunner and defender, his hitting and power both have room to grow.
17. Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds
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Control
For Johnny Cueto, being a great command artist doesn’t mean living in the zone. He generally doesn’t. But he’s one of the best in the business at playing with the edges of the strike zone with his hard stuff—and he’s gotten especially prolific at it this year—particularly when it comes to facing right-handed batters. The catch is that this style bars him from being among the elite at limiting walks, but that’s about it.
Whiffability
One thing Cueto’s ability to paint has bought him is a whole bunch of looking strikeouts, which won’t be easy to repeat. This is not to say he doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff, however. His four-seamer is one of the hardest to hit in the league, and his changeup and slider are both tough too. And with one more year to go before he hits 30, maybe he can maintain his velocity spike from 92-93 to 93-94.
Hittability
Cueto has let his four-seamer take over for his sinker in 2014, and that’s helped knock his ground-ball rate down a peg. He’s still good at getting ground balls, though, and he’s also tough to square up for line drives and well-hit fly balls. That he lives on the edges is part of the equation, but his ability to mix up his many pitches also helps. Watch any start of his, and you’re liable to see a lot of ugly swings against him.
Workhorse
This is where Cueto’s hard to figure. He’s been a stupendous workhorse this year, regularly going seven innings and throwing 110 pitches while actually gaining velocity as games move along. But you just can’t rely on his shoulder to stay healthy, as he’s had issues with it seemingly every year. That makes it hard to project another season like this one.
Overall
Cueto’s been a beast from day one this season, baffling hitters by painting on the edges, mixing his pitches and pitching deep into games. And though we can worry about his shoulder staying healthy and his strikeout rate coming back to earth, it’s hard not to view Cueto as one of baseball’s elite hurlers anyway.
16. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
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Hitting
I mean, sure, we can talk about the Coors Field effect. Troy Tulowitzki did finish his season with a .417 average at home and a .257 average in road games. But when you have a measured plate approach, a solid contact habit, zone coverage that has few holes and an ability to hit rockets all over the field, only giving Tulowitzki a perfect score here is really the biggest way we can knock him for the Coors Field effect.
Power
Again, you can focus on the Coors Field effect. But it says it all that even Tulowitziki’s .191 road ISO (Isolated Power) is elite by this year’s shortstop standards. He really does have power that’s unrivaled at shortstop. His preference for line drives and fly balls allows him to easily tap into it, and he can pick up extra-base hits in any direction he pleases.
Baserunning
And now for the point where the Tulowitzki love fest gets put on hold. Injuries have helped influence a decline into a subpar baserunner by shortstop standards. He doesn’t steal bases anymore, and he finished his season with (by far) a career-low 25 XBT%. Knowing that he’s headed for his age-30 season with yet another significant lower-half injury in his wake, no, things probably aren’t getting better.
Defense
Tulowitzki had yet another strong defensive season as far as the defensive metrics are concerned, playing mistake-free defense and making a boatload of tough plays. On those, it’s not so much amazing quickness. It’s more so his arm strength, as he can salvage seemingly un-makeable plays by unleashing throws that maybe nobody other than Andrelton Simmons can make. The one worry: How much longer can his body hold up at short?
Overall
For much of 2014, Tulowitzki was the best player in baseball thanks to insanely hot hitting and terrific defense at shortstop. It’s too bad that yet another injury came along and ruined everything. And with so many injuries now on his soon-to-be-30-year-old body, it’s best if we expect him to be, you know, only slightly elite going forward.
15. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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Control
By his 2011-13 standards, Cole Hamels has been walking more guys. However, he’s hitting the zone about as often as the average starter while (not so coincidentally) pumping more fastballs into zone than he has in years. That the majority are at the bottom of the zone is ideal, as it allows him to set batters up to swing over his changeup. Now if he would just stop missing down the middle againstrighties...
Whiffability
Hamels is missing bats about as well as he did in 2013, with his main weapon still being his delicious (and very much elite) changeup. His cutter and curveball are none too shabby either. One thing to raise issue with is how he’s gotten some extra whiffs from increased fastball velocity, as he’s gone from 91-92 to sitting at 92. For a guy who will be 31 soon, that doesn’t reek of sustainability.
Hittability
Hamels has pushed his ground-ball rate toward its 2011 peak, and not just because his changeup is a good ground-ball pitch. His sinker is too, and he’s putting more and more trust in it. To boot, Hamels is good at limiting hard contact even when he doesn’t get ground balls. By keeping hitters off-balance so consistently, he ensures that balls that are elevated off him don’t travel far.
Workhorse
Hamels has topped 215 innings three years in a row, and he’s been good for his customary 100 pitches and almost seven innings per start ever since his return from an early season shoulder injury. That he did battle that shoulder injury can’t be ignored, however, especially knowing that Hamels isn’t getting any younger. It’s likely that his most durable days are in the past.
Overall
Hamels’ success revolves largely around his changeup, which is still one of the deadliest offerings in the game. He’s also a good command artist, and you have to admire the adjustments he’s made to limit hard contact. This leaves age-related concerns—velocity and health chief among them—as the only real concerns.
14. Jose Bautista, RF, Toronto Blue Jays
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Hitting
You can always count on Jose Bautista to take his walks, as he’s a discerning hitter who likes to see his share of pitches. But this year has seen him do a terrific job using the opposite field for a change. He’s also never been more of a line-drive threat against slow stuff, and he’s covered outside pitches better than he has since 2011. He’s turned himself from a low-average/high-OBP guy into a high-average/high-OBP guy.
Power
Just because Bautista is more of a complete hitter doesn’t mean he’s a lesser power hitter. He hasn’t stopped being a fly-ball hitter, and he doesn’t seem to be losing any of his patented pull power. At the back of one’s mind, however, is the knowledge that Bautista has had trouble staying healthy the last two seasons. With his 34th birthday due up, he’s bound to start leaking at least some power eventually.
Baserunning
Bautista is still a good athlete for his age, but I wouldn’t expect him to light up the basepaths for much longer. He’s only a candidate for five-ish steals now, and he’s watched his XBT% fall from over 50 percent each year between 2011 and 2013 to 42 percent this year. He could be due for another drop in his age-34 season, which would make his habit of running into outs look that much worse.
Defense
The defensive metrics aren’t overly impressed by Bautista’s defense in right field, and they look even less impressed if you take away his (rightfully) strong marks for his arm. There is something to their pickiness, as Bautista’s range is limited by his non-elite foot speed. But it’s really not that big of a problem. He moves fine for a right fielder, and he at least reads and tracks balls well.
Total
It’s hard not to have at least some doubts about Bautista’s ability to keep it up as he gets into his mid-30s, but there’s still plenty to like. He’s still a terrific power source, and he’s made himself into even more of an on-base machine while continuing to play strong defense in right field.
13. Max Scherzer, SP, Detroit Tigers
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Control
Max Scherzer’s command potential is limited by a delivery that’s not easy to repeat and stuff that moves like crazy. And yet he’s hitting the zone more often despite dropping his fastball usage to a new low. That he’s located his secondaries in the zone more often is a big factor there. The lone gripe is that Scherzer’s fastball command hasn’t been as sharp as in 2013, in which he lived at the bottom of the zone.
Whiffability
He’s Max Scherzer. That means more than a strikeout per inning and a whole bunch of swings and misses, largely courtesy of one of the game’s best sliders and a changeup that’s only getting harder to hit. The only catch is that his four-seamer is becoming easier to hit, which makes sense knowing that he’s gone from throwing 93-94 to 92-93. And now that he’s 30, another drop is likely to happen.
Hittability
Even despite his ever-decreasing fastball usage, Scherzer hasn’t quit being a fly-ball pitcher. That’s life when your four-seamer isn’t hard to elevate. It’s also not impossible to take deep, which will only become more true if he keeps leaking velocity. But even if it does, here's guessing its primary function will still be helping Scherzer collect loads and loads of can-of-corn fly balls.
Workhorse
Scherzer’s been good for over 100 pitches and close to seven innings when he’s taken the ball these last two years. Him going more than seven innings, however, doesn’t happen especially frequently because of the high pitch counts his strikeout habit causes. We also have to take into account that he could be prone to more shorter outings in his age-30 season if lesser velocity does make life tougher.
Overall
That Scherzer’s getting up there means we naturally have to worry about how much longer his insane stuff is going to hold up, especially since the cracks are already starting to form. He should be a couple of years away from completely losing his stuff, however, and his transformation into more of a pitcher than a thrower should help ensure he remains one of the game’s best.
12. Carlos Gomez, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
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Hitting
Carlos Gomez has become less of a whiff candidate against breaking balls and has also hung on to last year’s line-drive rate. Even better, it’s no longer easy to beat him at the top of the zone. It’s too bad he’s become an even wilder swinger than he already was, hacking, whiffing and expanding the zone more than ever. You can get away with that if you’re a good bad-ball hitter, but he’s not.
Power
Gomez upping his fly-ball rate in 2014 hasn’t made him a better power hitter. It hasn’t helped that a good chunk of those flies have gone to right field, where his power is less explosive. Still, this is nitpickery. Gomez hasn’t lost his ability to drive the ball to center and left, and he’s hit more line drives and fly balls in those directions than he did in 2013. In other words: His power potential is just fine.
Baserunning
Gomez once again surpassed the 30-stolen-base plateau, marking the third year in a row he’s done so. He’s also taken what was a 44 XBT% in 2013 and upped it to 54. It’s not all good, though. Gomez’s efficiency stealing bases has taken a hit, and he’s still surprisingly mediocre at going first to third. And lastly, this is two years in a row he’s made double-digit outs on the bases.
Defense
After falling in love with Gomez in 2013, the defensive metrics have backed off. It is indeed hard to be that good two years in a row. There aren’t always going to be home runs to rob, which is a bummer for a guy who’s arguably the best at going back on deep fly balls. But make no mistake, Gomez still covers a ton of ground in center field, and you don’t want to sleep on the good arm he has for the position.
Overall
Gomez has done enough to put to rest any notions that his 2013 season was a fluke, as he’s continued to display a terrific combination of power and speed while (in my opinion) still playing a fine center field. If there’s something worth worrying about, though, it’s his hitting. He can make a free-swinging approach work, but he won’t repeat this year’s wildness if he knows what’s good for him.
11. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
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Hitting
Among Buster Posey's talents is simply putting the bat on the ball, and he further helps himself by being an all-fields batter who’s hitting plenty of line drives. But he’s also been less disciplined than usual in 2014, and he's been much less productive against pitches at the top of the strike zone. He's still excellent and is as hot as they come right now, but that shouldn't completely wipe away several months of inconsistency.
Power
It’s looking like Posey’s 2012 season is his own version of Joe Mauer’s 2009 season: It teased that he had power that he really doesn’t. But goodness knows his power is hardly a lost cause. He doesn’t waste opportunities to tap into his pull power and is plenty capable of driving the ball to right field. Factor in how he doesn't get much help from AT&T Park, and his power is still legit even if 2012 was a tease.
Baserunning
Posey’s no more likely to steal bases than most other catchers, and he's fairly predictable when it comes to how he's going to take bases. Since 2012, his XBT% has gone from 26 to 28 to 28 percent. As far as catchers go, he’s essentially normal.
Defense
Posey’s best talent as a receiver is making sure his pitchers get the easy strikes, as he’s working on a 94.2 Z-Strike%. But his 15.9 O-Strike% is also above average, making him out to be a good guy to have behind the plate on a daily basis. Posey further helps out his pitchers by controlling the running game, as his arm strength more than makes up for the modest quickness of his pop and windup.
Overall
Posey's hitting may not be without flaws and his power may never live up to what he did in 2012, but both his bat and his pop are still excellent by catcher standards. To boot, the quality of his receiving and throwing make it that much harder to campaign for him to be moved off catcher in the near future. The Giants would be missing out defensively.
10. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland A's
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Hitting
Josh Donaldson’s made what was already a patient and disciplined approach even more so. He’s also retained his quiet ability to get hits on ground balls while buying himself more consistency in the second half by upping his line-drive rate. He hasn’t had the best response to seeing fewer fastballs, though. His timing has been more easily disrupted, and he’s found himself swinging over junk below his knees more often. Pitchers haven’t solved the Donaldson puzzle yet, but they’ve at least found some corner pieces.
Power
One thing pitchers haven’t been able to avoid so well is Donaldson’s power. He’s given himself even more chances to tap into it by hitting more fly balls, and he’s continued to demonstrate that he can drive those to all parts of the yard. When you can do that, you can make a run at 30 dingers. The only bummer is that his inconsistent line-drive habit has made it tough to tack on doubles.
Baserunning
Donaldson moves better than you’d expect of a converted catcher. He has a real shot at double-digit steals without being caught even once, and he’s tacking on a solid 39 XBT% to go with it without making as many foolish outs as he did in 2013. For all he gets credit for, baserunning is one area where he's underrated.
Defense
The defensive metrics are even bigger fans of Donaldson’s than they were in 2013. This is even despite all his errors, and that most of those are throwing errors does highlight his inconsistency with his accuracy. But thanks to quick reactions, good footwork and simple athleticism, he covers ground about as well as any third baseman and can make some really tough plays because of it.
Total
Though it’s not a great look that there are legit reasons Donaldson’s bat has been so inconsistent in 2014, it’s a minor complaint in the grand scheme of things. He at least has a terrific eye at the plate, and he combines it with excellent power and defense and good baserunning to make himself the total package.
9. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Hitting
It’s not by accident that Paul Goldschmidt finished 2014 hitting .300 with a .396 OBP. He actually got more disciplined, allowing him to more consistently show off his considerable zone coverage. To boot, he also maintained a strong a line-drive approach encompassing all fields. The only real concern is the whiff habit he developed against fastballs, but it’s a small concern in light of his strengths.
Power
Though home runs weren’t coming as easily as they did when he co-led the NL in homers in 2013, one look at Goldschmidt’s 2014 hit map is all it takes to know that he was still hitting rockets all over the field. His raw power was fine. The worry, however, is that the season-ending hand injury Goldschmidt suffered might do what hand injuries sometimes do and leave him with less than vintage power in 2015.
Baserunning
After topping 15 stolen bases in 2012 and 2013, Goldschmidt had at least a chance to get there again in 2014, with nine steals in 12 tries. Even that amount is good enough to highlight him as the top base-stealing threat among first basemen, and then you can further admire how he finished the season with a 55 XBT% and as the Arizona Diamondbacks' top-rated baserunner.
Defense
The defensive metrics went from seeing Goldschmidt as an elite defender in 2013 to an average defender this year. This is justifiable, as he made more errors and wasn’t as active scooping the ball or making rangy plays. The eye test says he didn’t lose his ability to do the latter two things well, though, so there’s a limit to how much we can think he might have overachieved defensively in 2013.
Overall
The possibility of his season-ending hand injury taking away some power is the big concern with Goldschmidt going forward. But even if it does, it’s only going to render elite power into great power, and Goldschmidt should still have the goods to be a .300 hitter who can also run and field his position. For as many great first basemen are in the game today, none can match his all-around skill set.
8. Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Miami Marlins
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Hitting
Up until a wayward pitch ended his season early, Giancarlo Stanton was still liable to swing and miss on slow stuff. Aside from that, though, he was continuing to be less aggressive and more disciplined than he used to be. It's also become very difficult to sneak a fastball by him, he’s getting better as a line-drive hitter and he was working on career-best dominance at the top of the zone. Though his .395 on-base percentage was inflated a bit by 24 intentional walks, he was definitely showing some real improvements.
Power
He’s Giancarlo Stanton. All he needs to do is get the ball in the air, and it will go. He’s fortunately pretty good at getting the ball in the air, and he can make it go in any direction when he does. Such is how he ended his season with an NL-best 37 home runs and .267 Isolated Power.
Baserunning
Really the only thing to hold against Stanton is the outs he made at second and third. Outside of those, however, he did a fine job of showing what he can do with healthy legs under him. He topped double-digit steals for the first time, with good efficiency to boot. He also finished with a 46 XBT% that featured a career-best eight first-to-thirds.
Defense
The defensive metrics were split on Stanton’s defense, but it’s the one that was rating him as easily above average that has the right idea. His range is limited by his modest foot speed, but he makes up for it by getting solid jumps and tracking balls well. And though he doesn’t exactly have Roberto Clemente’s arm, it’s good enough. As long as he can stay healthy—fingers crossed—he’s going to get it done on defense.
Total
Stanton is still limited by his tendency to swing and miss, but he doesn’t have many limits aside from that one anymore. He’s done enough to turn himself into a consistent hitter, he runs the bases and plays defense well and, of course, hits for a ton of power. The corner outfielder kingdom is his to rule.
7. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Hitting
It’s a bummer that Andrew McCutchen’s ever-escalating line-drive habit has finally taken a step back, and he still hasn’t responded to an ever-increasing percentage of breaking balls by hitting them better. But oh well. McCutchen’s batting eye, patience and ability to make contact are all sharp, his plate coverage is outstanding and he really hasn’t needed a high line-drive rate to continue making loud contact.
Power
Relative to 2012 and 2013, McCutchen has been dabbling more in fly balls and has boosted his power in the process. It’s also helped that he has blasted hard-hit drives to every part of the yard, and it’s worth noting that his power-suppressing home park hasn’t helped him add to his home run total. He probably should have more. In all, the only real gripe is this: He’s not Mike Trout.
Baserunning
McCutchen hasn’t been stealing bases in the same volume that he was in 2013, but the trade-off has been a huge increase in efficiency. Even if he doesn’t make it to 20 steals by the end of the year, he may not exit the year with more than one caught-stealing. The downside? That’s that his XBT% has fallen from the 60-70 range in 2012 and 2013 all the way to 41 percent.
Defense
The defensive metrics are back to being down on McCutchen’s defense, but they’re being harsh. As one brilliant demonstration from the MLB Advanced Media tracking system can show, he’s plenty capable of good first steps, efficient routes and closing speed. If he does have a problem, it’s consistency. Beyond the occasional iffy read, he can underestimate his closing speed and ease up on catchable balls.
Overall
McCutchen hasn’t had the kind of all-around excellent season that he had in 2013, but he hasn’t done anything to really damage his reputation as one of the game’s top talents. His bat and power are both potent, his baserunning is still an asset and his defense isn’t the liability the metrics think it is.
6. Chris Sale, SP, Chicago White Sox
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Control
Chris Sale finished with a BB/9 under 2.0 in 2013 and is on his way there again. A big key is how he’s been pumping more fastballs into the zone than in his previous two years as a starter, setting himself up nicely to expand the zone with his secondaries. What’s not so great is Sale’s fastball command in the zone, as he often strays down the middle against lefties and can be all over the place against righties.
Whiffability
Sale is now among the game’s very elite. That his swinging-strike rate has skyrocketed is the main ingredient, with improved fastball velocity being a big reason for that. Sale is now sitting at 94.0 and more easily blowing hitters away. Add in a Frisbee-like slider that’s one of the best in the game and an underrated changeup that’s only becoming more unhittable, and you get a whiff master.
Hittability
Sale’s increased whiffability does come with one catch, and that’s how it’s required him to exchange some sinkers for four-seamers. That’s hurt his overall ground-ball rate and helped increase his fly-ball rate, which should probably be leading to more home runs than it has...and yet, there's Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Info saying that nobody has limited hard contact better than Sale. Hard to ignore, that.
Workhorse
On the surface, it’s hard to complain about a guy who’s been a strong bet for seven innings and well over 100 pitches the last two years. But Sale’s velocity has tended to peak in the first inning this year, and the thought of all those pitches is just as concerning as it is encouraging knowing that he’s had shoulder and elbow issues the last two years.
Overall
Exactly how many innings Sale can pitch in a given year is a question mark, but one of very few where he’s concerned. His herky-jerky delivery doesn’t bar him from finding the strike zone, and pretty much everything in his arsenal is unhittable from both a swing-and-miss and contact perspective.
5. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers
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Hitting
Jonathan Lucroy is only getting better at mixing patience and discipline with an ability to make contact. It’s good contact, too. He’s capable of hitting all fields with both line drives and ground balls, and his production has been helped by how he’s never been better at squaring up breaking balls. This makes his upward-trending whiff habit against off-speed stuff the only thing worth worrying about.
Power
In addition to his solid home run power, Lucroy has been a doubles machine this year. That’s what happens when you can drive the ball consistently to all fields. And while asking for that doubles power to become home run power is probably too much—it’s not like Lucroy is some 25-year-old who’s just starting out—he definitely has the goods to at least duplicate it.
Baserunning
It’s a shame that Lucroy hasn’t been able to repeat last year’s 9-for-10 effort on stolen bases. But he hasn’t needed to steal bases with all the doubles he’s been hitting, and the trade-off is that he’s never been more active taking the extra base. His XBT% is 49 percent, which is terrific by catching standards.
Defense
Lucroy’s receiving skills have rightfully become almost legendary. I have his Z-Strike% at 92.4 and his O-Strike% at 16.9, both of which are easily above average. Furthermore, he’s also one of the best at blocking pitches. He’s not great at controlling the running game, though, as he has fringy arm strength that he can only hide so much with his habit of cheating out of his crouch as the ball travels to home.
Overall
Even in what’s been his best season, I’m not sure Lucroy is getting enough credit. Beyond being a terrific hitter, he’s a quality baserunner and a guy who provides a ton of hidden value with his ability to get extra strikes for his pitchers. Right now, there’s no catcher in the game more well-rounded than him.
4. Corey Kluber, SP, Cleveland Indians
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Control
That close to 80 percent of Corey Kluber’s pitches are fastballs or cutters makes it easy for him to live in the zone, so it's actually somewhat surprising that he only hits the zone about as often as the average starter. But he doesn’t simply throw his hard stuff up there. He lives consistently on the edge against lefties and rarely strays from the outside corner against righties. But his really hidden talent? Nobody in the American League is better at back-dooring lefties with sliders.
Whiffability
Kluber was good at missing bats in 2013. He’s become great at it this year. That he sits in the 93-94 range with his heat gives him the velocity to blow batters away, but it’s his cutter and slider that do the heavy lifting. His cutter is arguably the hardest to hit in the game, and his slider is right up there with those of Garrett Richards and Max Scherzer. That’s some arsenal.
Hittability
Kluber’s only getting better at inducing ground balls, and you would too if you had a sinker, cutter and slider as good at getting grounders as his. He’s also gotten what was an absurdly high line-drive rate off his four-seamer under control and is now inducing more pop-ups than home runs. In so many words, he’s become very, very, very hard to square up.
Workhorse
Kluber lacks a track record in this department, but what he’s shown this year has been encouraging. He’s averaged roughly seven innings per start, and his efficiency has helped him do so on barely more than 100 pitches. He’s also shown he can kick up his velocity deep in games. So even despite the lack of a track record, it’s not hard to project him as an easy bet for 200 innings going forward.
Overall
It was clear in 2013 that Kluber was at least underrated. Now he’s one of the elite starters in the game, mixing top-notch control with nasty stuff and an ability to limit good contact. The presence of Felix Hernandez will make it tough for him to win the AL Cy Young this year, but it’s not hard to imagine Kluber emerging as the favorite in 2015.
3. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels
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Hitting
The things Mike Trout excels at include working disciplined at-bats, hitting low pitches, hitting slow pitches and generally clobbering the ball all over the yard. However, it’s no secret that he’s developed a problem swinging through high fastballs, and his production at the top of the zone is basically nonexistent. For as good as he is, that’s a flaw that can’t be ignored.
Power
Of course, more fly balls isn’t the worst curse in the world if you have some power. And Trout has that. Lots of it. Enough of it to blast a career-high number of homers and carry out an all-out extra-base hit assault on the deepest parts of the yard. Already a good power hitter, Trout is now arguably (or maybe not at all arguably) one of the five best power hitters in the game.
Baserunning
After 49 steals in 2012 and 33 in 2013, Trout won't even hit 20 this year. So yeah, what we’re doing is giving a very speedy runner the benefit of the doubt that steals might happen again. Aside from that, the good news is that Trout hasn’t stopped being an aggressive baserunner. His 59 XBT% is the same as last year, and he’s gone first to third almost 60 percent of the time.
Defense
The defensive metrics don’t like Trout’s defense this year. But what’s notable about that is that it’s really the weakness of his arm that’s hurting him. His range and ability to make plays are hurting him less, and that’s no surprise knowing you can watch him and still see a center fielder who gets good jumps, reads balls well and has terrific closing speed. Basically: Yeah, he gets the benefit of the doubt here too.
Overall
What we’ve witnessed in 2014 is the sluggerization of Mike Trout. After being by far baseball’s most complete player in 2012 and 2013, he’s turned into much more of a bat-first player. It’s a good thing his bat has been good enough to keep him among the game’s elite. And if you want to talk about which player has the most pure talent, it’s still no question. The answer’s Trout.
2. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners
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Control
King Felix now throws his heat less than half the time and is operating with a modest zone rate. But he does an excellent job of setting hitters up with his heat—toying with the outside corner against lefties and the bottom of the zone against righties—forcing them to protect the edges that he so often plays with. Also, mistake pitches seldom happen, as nobody’s thrown more low pitches.
Whiffability
Hernandez has never been this good at missing bats. You’d expect as much from a guy who’s traded in fastballs for more secondaries, and his slider, changeup and curveball are all excellent at getting swings and misses. That he’s gone back to throwing 92-93 has also helped. But knowing that he’ll soon be 29 and is coming off a velocity drop in 2013, that’s likely not sustainable.
Hittability
Hernandez is steadily becoming a great ground-ball pitcher, a benefit of him throwing both a lot of low pitches and fewer fastballs in general. It also helps that Hernandez’s primary fastball is a sinker that’s good, if not quite great, at getting ground balls. Yet another bonus of all of the above is that Hernandez isn’t getting any easier to take deep. Beating him means trying to single him to death.
Workhorse
Hernandez simply refuses to break down, as he’s been good for seven innings and 100 pitches per start like he always is. And though he’s asked more of his arm by pitching with more velocity, he’s held his velocity fine both in games and throughout the year. Maybe he’ll finally break down when he hits 30, but he still has another year to go before he gets there.
Overall
Hernandez is amazing. He’s showing no signs of running out of gas, and this year has seen him become a better command, strikeout and ground-ball artist than he’s ever been. That’s what having good movement and location can do for you, and there’s nobody who mixes those two things better.
1. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Control
Clayton Kershaw’s reliance on his heat is still trending downward, but he’s going to shatter last year’s career-best 1.98 BB/9 anyway. That he’s pounding the zone more is a factor, and a factor there is him putting more breaking balls in the zone. He also does an excellent job of pounding lefties away and righties inside with his heat, with the only gripe being that his misses are too often down the middle.
Whiffability
Beyond racking up strikeouts at a career-high rate, Kershaw also has the highest swinging-strike rate of any qualified starter. He has his 92-93 fastball to blow hitters away, and his curveball is still in fine form. But it’s his slider that’s taken center stage, as he’s throwing it at a higher velocity and getting whiffs with it like never before. So in addition to the best curveball in the game, he now has arguably the best slider.
Hittability
Suddenly, Kershaw is a legit ground-ball pitcher. His slider is doing its part, as hitters can do little to tap it into the ground when they do hit it. But while that’s likely sustainable, the elevated ground-ball rate of Kershaw’s fastball likely isn’t. Regular four-seamers like his aren’t good at getting ground balls, and his is a rising fastball to boot. Still, his ground-ball rate will avoid a serious blow if his fastball usage continues to trend downward, and nobody ever said his four-seamer was easy to hit anyway.
Workhorse
That Kershaw missed a month with an injury earlier this year is going to bar him from a fourth straight 220-inning season and is a cause for concern in this department. There’s not much else to complain about, though, as Kershaw is still good for seven innings and 100 pitches while holding his velocity fine every time he takes the ball. Nitpickery aside, he's awesome.
Overall
Kershaw has gone from being the best pitcher in the game to something else entirely. His command has gone from great to elite. The emergence of his slider gives him three pitches that can miss bats. He’s developed a ground-ball habit. And ever since he returned from his injury, he’s been the same tireless worker he was before. You can’t ask for a pitcher to be more perfect than this.
