B/R MLB 500: Top 150 Starting Pitchers
After checking in with the guys behind the plate, the next stop for the B/R MLB 500 is the guys they do business with the most: starting pitchers.ย
We have 150 starting pitchers to get to, and they'll be scored like so: 30 points for Control, 25 points for Whiffability, 25 points for Hittability and 20 points for "Workhorse" factor for a total of 100 points.
The Control category mainly concerns how good guys are at finding the strike zone and limiting walks. But it also considers command within the zone and if pitchers are good at toying with the zone.
The Whiffability category considers how good guys are at missing bats. The focus will be on what kind of stuff they're working with and how good they are at using it to get hitters to swing and miss.
The Hittability category is a little different. Missing bats is great, but pitchers can also help themselves by manipulating contact. Guys who can get ground balls are ideal, but we'll also be looking at proneness to home runs and line drives and for guys who just seem to have a knack for not getting hit hard.
Lastly, the Workhorse category is what it sounds like. It evaluates pitchers' capacities for eating innings, which is not just a matter of endurance. Efficiency also helps. So does good health. And a track record.
On that note, we're not doing a separate category for health this year. Any injury concerns we have will be applied to the category (or categories) that stand to be impacted.
Also note that a score in the middle (i.e. 15/30 or 12/25) denotes average, not failing. And while the discussion will be centered on 2014, we also have one eye on 2015. B/R prospect guru Mike Rosenbaum has thus provided some scores and scouting reports for a couple MLB-ready starters, and we'll also be looping in a couple big-name pitchers who will be returning from injuries.
Lastly, any ties will be resolved with the following question: "If we could pick only one, who would it be?"
When you're ready, you can read on.
A Note on Links and Some Honorable Mentions
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Before we begin, there are some things you should know about the links that lie ahead.
First and foremost is that CLICKING ON THE LINKS IS NOT MANDATORY. The links are there in case you're curious where a given point (or points) is coming from.
They're not all from the same place. The links will take you to Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, BaseballSavant.com and BaseballProspectus.com. All have different data to offer, the combination of which was the backbone for the researching of this project.ย
But don't worry. Just because this project was heavily informed by data doesn't mean that you're about to be hit over the head with a bunch of sabermetric jargon in this space. We'll keep things in plain English.
One last thing: This year's Tommy John curse has made some honorable mentions necessary. I had enough confidence in the 2015 comeback prospects of a couple of the surgery's recent victims to include them, but not so much with others.
Including Tyler Skaggs. I actually had the Los Angeles Angels lefty scored pretty high initially, but him being knocked out for all of 2015 basically disqualified him from making the final cut. Just know that he would have been at least a top-75 pitcher for 2015 in my book if he had stayed healthy.
Also worthy of honorable mentions: Patrick Corbin, Kris Medlen, Jarrod Parker, Brandon Beachy, Matt Moore, Bronson Arroyo, A.J. Griffin, Ivan Nova and Martin Perez. Here's wishing them the best of luck getting healthy.
150-126: Kingham-Cain
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150. Nick Kingham, Pittsburgh Pirates
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 10/25; Hittability: 12/25; Workhorse: 8/20
Nick Kinghamย doesnโt have the ceiling of fellow right-handersย Gerritย Cole and Jamesonย Taillon, but his deep arsenal and ability to eat innings give him a high floor as a No. 3 or 4 starterโa ceiling he may reach sooner rather than later.ย
149. J.A. Happ, Toronto Blue Jays
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 10/25; Hittability: 8/25; Workhorse: 12/20
J.A. Happโsย velocity isย trending upward, to a point where heโs now sitting in the 92-93 mph range, and heโs still a guy who you can bank on for around 100 pitches. But improved velocity hasnโt madeย Happย any tougher to hit, and thatโs true whether youโreย talking contactย or hard-hit balls. So despite there being hope in his increasing velocity, he still looks like a mere back-end innings-eater.
148. Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 10/25; Hittability: 9/25; Workhorse: 11/20
Shelby Miller stillย throws 93-94ย and hasnโt lost his solid ability to get hittersย to pop out. His arm is still alive, which means thereโs hope. Itโs too bad his fastball command has devolved into him living in theย middle of the zone, and he has yet to come up with an excuse to make hitters look for anything other than heat. His arm may still be alive, but his approach needs some serious tweaking.
147. A.J. Cole, Washington Nationals
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 12/25; Hittability: 10/25; Workhorse: 9/20
A.J. Coleโs ability to pump strikes with his impressive fastball has fueled his rise through the minor leagues, but he wonโt be able to get away with just the one pitch in The Show. Therefore, heโll need to improve his breaking ball and changeup in order to avoid a long-term bullpen role.ย
146. Kyle Zimmer, Kansas City Royals
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 14/25; Hittability: 14/25; Workhorse: 4/20
The sky is the limit for Kyle Zimmer if he can just stay healthy. Over two-plus years in the minors, his rash of injuries rather than on-field success has unfortunately defined the right-handerโs development. While he still has time on his side, Zimmerโs checkered medical history offers reason to question his overall potential.ย
145. Eddie Butler, Colorado Rockies
Control: 14/30; Whiffability: 13/25; Hittability: 12/25; Workhorse: 8/20
Eddie Butler was poised to spend a majority of the season in the Rockies starting rotation before suffering a shoulder injury. He still has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter at maturity, but heโll now have to answer questions next season about his durability and ability to miss bats. ย
144. Rubby De La Rosa, Boston Red Sox
Control: 13/30; Whiffability: 10/25; Hittability: 12/25; Workhorse: 12/20
Itโs clear that Rubby De La Rosa has work to do to get his fastball command up to speed, especiallyย against lefties. And though his fastball/changeup combination looks pretty, itโs not as good atย getting whiffsย as it should be. So itโs a good thing that De La Rosa has shown he canย get ground ballsย when heโs on, and itโs further encouraging that heโs been able toย hold his velocity wellย in games.
143. Joe Kelly, Boston Red Sox
Control: 12/30; Whiffability: 8/25; Hittability: 16/25; Workhorse: 11/20
With a fastball that sits in theย 94-95 range, thereโs no question Joe Kelly has a live arm. He also has a sinker thatโs good forย getting ground balls, and mixing in hisย four-seamer moreย has helped himย get more pop-ups. But until he improves his fastball command and/or develops a reliable option for missing bats, heโs not going to be anything more than an intriguing back-end rotation option.
142. Jordan Lyles, Colorado Rockies
Control: 12/30; Whiffability: 10/25; Hittability: 14/25; Workhorse: 11/20
Goingย heavier on hard stuffย has helped Jordan Lylesย find the zone more consistentlyย than he did in 2013, and his sinker is still aย very strong ground-ball pitch. But since his command is still far from good and he hasnโt completely ditched his problems with home runsย and hard contact, he doesnโt look like anything better than a viable back-end starter.
141. Robert Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds
Control: 12/30; Whiffability: 15/25; Hittability: 11/25; Workhorse: 10/20
Robert Stephensonโs athleticism and arm strength suggest front-of-the-rotation potential, but heโll need to improve his command and refine his changeup to remain a starter long term. The good news is the 21-year-old is still young and will be given ample time to address those issues.ย
140. Dillon Gee, New York Mets
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 8/25; Hittability: 11/25; Workhorse: 14/20
Dillon Gee was sidelined for two months with a bad shoulder, the second time in three years his health has betrayed him. When he's been able to pitch, his command has been iffyโparticularly hisย in-zone fastball commandโand heโs had a hard time missing bats. But heโs also shown he hasnโt lost his ability to manipulate contact by mixing his pitches, and heโsย hardly been hopelessย as an innings-eater.
139. A.J. Burnett, Philadelphia Phillies
Control: 10/30; Whiffability: 10/25; Hittability: 13/25; Workhorse: 15/20
This is assuming A.J. Burnett returns to play another season, which heโsย hinted is possible. Going off whatโsย happened this season, he should still be able to eat innings if he does come back. Thereโs value in a guy who can do that. But unless Burnett fixes the control problems heโs had this year while also finding someย lost velocityย and avoidingย hard contact, eating innings could be the extent of his contributions.
138. Odrisamer Despaigne, San Diego Padres
Control: 12/30; Whiffability: 8/25; Hittability: 16/25; Workhorse: 12/20
The scouting report on Odrisamerย Despaigneย has gotten around by now, but itโs still hard not to be intrigued with his pitching style. Though not very efficiently, he throwsย a lot of different pitchesย and pretty much all of them move. A few of them are also good forย getting ground balls, and the combination of them all can lead to generally weak contact. Good enough for a back-end type.
137. Braden Shipley, Arizona Diamondbacks
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 14/25; Hittability: 12/25; Workhorse: 8/20
The polish Braden Shipley has shown in 2014 has been a pleasant surprise, especially considering his overall lack of experience on the bump. He still requires considerable projection for that same reason, but it isnโt difficult to envision the 22-year-old developing into a high-end No. 3 starter.
136. Aaron Blair, Arizona Diamondbacks
Control: 14/30; Whiffability: 14/25; Hittability: 12/25; Workhorse: 9/20
Aaron Blair doesnโt have huge upside like fellow D-Backs right-handers Archie Bradley and Shipley, but thereโs a strong chance he will realize his potential and carve out a solid career as a mid-rotation starter.
135. Chi Chi Gonzalez, Texas Rangers
Control: 16/30; Whiffability: 11/25; Hittability: 14/25; Workhorse: 8/20
Chi Chi Gonzalez lacks a high ceiling, but I wouldnโt put it past him to blow past all expectations regarding his potential, especially when considering his overwhelming success this year in his first full season. Heโll have a spot waiting for him in the Rangers rotation once heโs ready.
134. Henry Owens, Boston Red Sox
Control: 12/30; Whiffability: 15/25; Hittability: 12/25; Workhorse: 10/20
Henry Owens still projects as more of a mid-rotation starter than staff ace due to his lack of a dominant pitch and slightly below-average command, but thereโs still something to be said for his ability to miss bats during an accelerated rise through the minor leagues.ย
133. Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays
Control: 13/30; Whiffability: 15/25; Hittability: 13/25; Workhorse: 8/20
Aaron Sanchez was rushed up the ladder this year due to the Blue Jaysโ struggles in the major leagues; it certainly wasnโt because he was ready from a developmental standpoint. If heโs going to start for the club long term, then heโd benefit from more time in the minors to refine his command.
132. Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 15/25; Hittability: 14/25; Workhorse: 5/20
Dylan Bundy reached the major leagues during his 2012 full-season debut, but Tommy John surgery cost the right-hander more than a year of developmental time. He still has the ceiling of a front-of-the-rotation starter, but he still has a ways to go before returning to his pre-surgery form.ย
131. Edinson Volquez, Pittsburgh Pirates
Control: 13/30; Whiffability: 8/25; Hittability: 15/25; Workhorse: 13/20
Edinson Volquezย is still prone to wildness, and his ability to miss bats is on aย clear downward trend. But while thatโs a bad combination, the Pirates actually have tightened upย Volquezโsย command to a point where itโs at least passable, and his sinker is once again aย good source of ground balls. Heโs still not a good pitcher, but for now heโs at least a viable rotation option.
130. Ricky Nolasco, Minnesota Twins
Control: 18/30; Whiffability: 10/25; Hittability: 8/25; Workhorse: 13/20
Ricky Nolasco hasn'tย been able to miss batsย like he did in 2013, in part because his splitterย hasnโt been nearly as effective. Heโs also paid dearly for throwingย so many hittable fastballs. On top of all this, there was his absence with an elbow injury. But because he stillย mixes his pitches wellย and is able to avoid issuing walks,ย Nolascoย isnโt completely lost as a pitcher. Some sort of rebound is in order for 2015.
129. Miguel Gonzalez, Baltimore Orioles
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 12/25; Hittability: 10/25; Workhorse: 12/20
Miguel Gonzalez has benefited fromย mixing up his pitches moreย in 2014, in particular how heโs more regularlyย gotten whiffs with his secondariesย while making his four-seam fastball aย tremendous source of pop-ups. But mixing his pitches also hasnโt made him any better atย finding the zone, andย he still hasnโt solvedย his home run problem. As such, he still has improvements to make.
128. Bud Norris, Baltimore Orioles
Control: 16/30; Whiffability: 10/25; Hittability: 10/25; Workhorse: 13/20
Bud Norris came into 2014 with a reputation as a solid innings-eater, and it still holds. Heโs also benefitedย more velocity, which has had a hand in him keeping fly balls fromย traveling too far. But thereโs also been some overachieving going on. Norris has succeeded despite his sliderย continuing to declineย as a whiff pitch, and he hasnโt felt the effects of aย big increase in contactย as much as he should have.
127. Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners
Control: 14/30; Whiffability: 14/25; Hittability: 14/25; Workhorse: 8/20
A strong case can be made that Taijuan Walker is the most projectable pitcher in the minor leagues thanks to his special combination of athleticism and stuff as well as his capacity to make adjustments. A shoulder injury delayed his breakthrough in the majors, but itโs safe to say that the right-handerโs time is coming soon.
126. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
Control: 16/30; Whiffability: 11/25; Hittability: 10/25; Workhorse: 13/20
Matt Cain's third trip to the disabled list ended his 2014 season. But he will beย ready to goย for spring training, and it actually wouldnโt be the worst thing if the Giants end up getting something similar to the 2014 Cain. Amid all his struggles, he still rode aย four-seam-light approachย to aย career-high ground-ball rateย while actuallyย finding the zoneย more than he had since 2010.ย
125-101: Santiago-Paxton
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125. Hector Santiago, Los Angels Angels
Control: 16/30; Whiffability: 10/25; Hittability: 13/25; Workhorse: 11/20
Hector Santiagoโs neither as bad as he looked earlier nor as good as heโs looked recently. Heโs somewhere in between. His spotty fastball command makes him prone to walks and hard-hit balls, but also helps himย get pop-upsย with his curve and cutter and other catchable fly balls to the outfield. That fly-ball habit canย make things interesting, though, so itโs a good thing he gets to pitch at the Big A.
124. Roenis Elias, Seattle Mariners
Control: 10/30; Whiffability: 18/25; Hittability: 10/25; Workhorse: 12/20
Roenis Elias goes heavy on theย changeups and curveballs, making it tough for him toย hit the zoneย consistently and easy for hitters to sit back and wait for wayward fastballs. What allows him to survive is how his curve and change are both quite good at missing bats, and hitters surprisinglyย havenโt done muchย to solve the puzzle as the season has gone along.
123. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
Control: 14/30; Whiffability: 11/25; Hittability: 10/25; Workhorse: 15/20
Itโs not pretty. Justinย Verlanderย hasnโt responded toย his declining velocityย by sharpening up his fastball command, as heโs been a littleย all over the placeย this year. Also, all his pitches haveย become easier to hitย andย easier to elevate, and he hasnโt been able toย avoid long drives. Really the only thing he has left is his ability to eat innings, and even thatโs compromised now thanks to his shoulder troubles.
122. Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
Control: 17/30; Whiffability: 8/25; Hittability: 10/25; Workhorse: 15/20
Chris Tillmanโs been getting results just fine in 2014, and he gets credit for cleaning up his command after a rocky start to the season. What scares me is how aย dip in velocityย has made his four-seamerย that much easier to hit. That doesnโt craft a positive image of the future, and not just because even fewer whiffs could be in order. It could also become easier thanย it already isย to take Tillman for a ride.
121. Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
Control: 14/30; Whiffability: 17/25; Hittability: 11/25; Workhorse: 9/20
Noah Syndergaard has been victimized by the Pacific Coast Leagueย this year, so donโt read too far into his disappointing stats. Overall, the 22-year-old has held his own against older hitters while maintaining strong strikeout and walk rates. His command needs refinement, but the stuff and durability scream front-line starter.
120. Josh Collmenter, Arizona Diamondbacks
Control: 18/30; Whiffability: 9/25; Hittability: 12/25; Workhorse: 12/20
Predictably, the move from the bullpen to the rotation has cost Joshย Collmenterย some velocityย and made his cutter/changeup combinationย more hittable. He is generally pretty goodโespeciallyย against rightiesโabout staying out of the fat part of the zone, however, and the majority of the fly balls he gives upย donโt go very far. If the Diamondbacks keep him in the rotation in 2015, heโll do fine as a back-end guy.ย
119. Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Control: 18/30; Whiffability: 12/25; Hittability: 12/25; Workhorse: 10/20
The Phillies have Aaron Nola on the fast track to the major leagues, and if all goes as planned with the right-handerโs development, he should spend most of 2015 in the teamโs starting rotation. There may be some bumps in the road along the way, but Nola has a high probability of reaching his potentialโand soon.
118. Daniel Norris, Toronto Blue Jays
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 15/25; Hittability: 14/25; Workhorse: 8/20
Daniel Norris is one of the gameโs premier left-handed pitching prospects, both in terms of present ability and overall potential. However, heโll need to thoroughly develop his changeup to become an impact starter in the major leagues.
117. Alex Meyer, Minnesota Twins
Control: 14/30; Whiffability: 17/25; Hittability: 11/25; Workhorse: 10/20
The next step in Alex Meyerโs development is a lengthy audition in the major leagues, which should occur in early 2015 since he's on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation. Thereโs a realistic chance heโll always walk too many guys, but thereโs no questioning Meyerโs ability to miss bats as an impact front-end starter. ย
116. Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks
Control: 13/30; Whiffability: 16/25; Hittability: 15/25; Workhorse: 8/20
Granted he missed significant time due to injury, but Bradleyโs performance this season has made it clear his command, particularly with his fastball, is still a work in progress. The right-handerโs overall development hasnโt progressed this season, but it hasnโt affected his ceiling of a No. 1 or 2 starter at maturity.
115. Dan Haren, Los Angeles Dodgers
Control: 24/30; Whiffability: 7/25; Hittability: 8/25; Workhorse: 13/20
The slight velocity revival Danย Harenย experienced in 2013ย hasnโt repeated itselfย in 2014, helping to make him even more hittable than he already was. And looking ahead to his age-34 season, no, that velocity likely isnโt coming back. He can still eat innings and put together the occasional good outing, however, and those should keep being possible as long as he can keepย living onย the edgesย with his hard stuff.
114. Jeremy Guthrie, Kansas City Royals
Control: 17/30; Whiffability: 10/25; Hittability: 8/25; Workhorse: 17/20
Living with Jeremy Guthrie still means living with the constant threat of home runs, as heโs still aย fly-ball pitcherย who asks for trouble by living in theย middle of the zone. But hey, heโs still a good source of innings, and hisย increasing trust in his changeupย is helping him limit the damageย with whiffsย andย ground balls. Heโs still only a back-end guy, but heโs one of the better back-end guys youโre going to find.
113. Scott Feldman, Houston Astros
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 8/25; Hittability: 11/25; Workhorse: 14/20
Theย decline of Scottย Feldmanโs curveballย has left him without a reliable pitch to get swings and misses, and itโs alsoย been a partย of a rise in hard contact against him. Itโs a good thing that Feldman isnโt totally incapable of getting ground balls just yet, and heโs still a guy whoโs going to give youย six innings and 100 pitchesย when he takes the ball. Thatโll have to do.
112. Drew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 15/25; Hittability: 10/25; Workhorse: 12/20
Drew Hutchison never was as good as he looked earlier in the season, and heโs since become what he really is: a back-end rotation guy who can be hit hard when he misses his spots. But he does have his merits, most notably a solid changeup/slider combination that help make it easier for him to throw his four-seamerย pastย guys up in the zone. Nothing fancy, but he can execute it well enough to hold his own.
111. Tom Koehler, Miami Marlins
Control: 13/30; Whiffability: 13/25; Hittability: 13/25; Workhorse: 13/20
Now that Tomย Koehlerย has a sinkerย and has increased the use of his slider, he has more to keep hitters guessing. As a result, heโs been able to help himself toย more whiffsย and soft contact. He still needs to sharpen up his command, however, as heโs still prone to walks and high pitch counts early even despite theย more hard-heavy approachย heโs taken in 2014.
110. Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 17/25; Hittability: 12/25; Workhorse: 9/20
The Rockies had Jon Gray working on different things this season, such as his fastball command and ability to expand the zone with his secondary pitches, so the numbers arenโt as impressive as expected. Regardless, his season-long successful in Double-A is very, very encouraging.ย
109. Jorge Deย La Rosa, Colorado Rockies
Control: 14/30; Whiffability: 12/25; Hittability: 15/25; Workhorse: 12/20
Though Jorge Deย La Rosa stillย canโt be counted onย for six innings due to his inefficiency, theย cutter heโs incorporatedย has probably saved him from oblivion. In addition to giving him anย extra swing-and-miss pitchย to go with his splitter, itโs also joined his splitter in beingย a ground-ball magnet. Those two things help a pitcher survive at Coors Field, and we should all appreciate how well Deย La Rosa does that.
108. Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants
Control: 21/30; Whiffability: 10/25; Hittability: 10/25; Workhorse: 12/20
Ryan Vogelsongย needs AT&T Park to be at his best, as heโs prone toย line drives and fly ballsย andย isnโt particularly goodย at making sure the latter stay shallow. Fortunately, heโsย regained the velocityย he didnโt have in an injury-marred 2013 season and has gone back to living on the corners of the zone againstย both leftiesย and righties. As a result, heโs back to being reliable.
107. Chase Anderson, Arizona Diamondbacks
Control: 14/30; Whiffability: 18/25; Hittability: 10/25; Workhorse: 11/20
Chase Anderson has the right idea with his fastball command, but itโs pretty clear hisย execution needs some work. Heโs also been prone to hard contact, be it line drives orย hard-hit fly balls. What makes him attractive is his changeup and curveball. Both have had anย easy time missing bats, and his changeup in particular isย easy on the eyes. He has some things to figure out, but his stuff is definitely MLB-caliber.
106. Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles
Control: 10/30; Whiffability: 15/25; Hittability: 15/25; Workhorse: 13/20
The results have been there for Kevinย Gausmanย in his first real foray into starting at the big league level, and thereโs no denying that he has the stuff (his splitter FTW!) to be an elite MLB pitcher. But he needs to get some fastball command before he can make that leap, and heโs made it clearย thereโs work required there.
105. Tsuyoshi Wada, Chicago Cubs
Control: 17/30; Whiffability: 14/25; Hittability: 12/25; Workhorse: 11/20
There are some concerns surrounding Tsuyoshi Wada. Specifically, how much he works in theย middle of the zoneย with his modest heat and how hitters havenโt had much trouble elevating against him. At the same time, he has one of those fastballs that looks faster thanย just 89-90 mph, and his slider and changeup look like potentially legit swing-and-miss offerings. These are good reasons for optimism.ย
104. Aaron Harang, Atlanta Braves
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 10/25; Hittability: 14/25; Workhorse: 15/20
Leave it to the Braves to take Aaronย Harangโsย smoke-and-mirrors pitching and make it better. He still really only flirts with the strike zone and is still far from his old self at missing bats, but heโsย throwing his sinkerย more and generally doing a better job of mixing his pitches. This has helped him get ground balls andย dial back the problemย he had with home runs in 2013.
103. Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs
Control: 16/30; Whiffability: 8/25; Hittability: 16/25; Workhorse: 14/20
Itโs putting it lightly to say that Travis Wood hasnโt been getting away with non-elite command and pitching to contact like he did in 2013. But things arenโt as bad as they look. Heโs actuallyย hitting the zoneย more often while still livingย largely onย the corners, and heโs done a decent job gettingย pop-ups and catchable fly balls. He wasnโt as good as he looked in 2013, but heโs not as bad as he looks in 2014.
102. Michael Pineda, New York Yankees
Control: 20/30; Whiffability: 15/25; Hittability: 15/25; Workhorse: 5/20
No, it looks like we still canโt rely on Michaelย Pinedaโs shoulder. And no, heย hasnโt shown the same velocityย he did back in 2011. What justifies his inclusion here, however, is how heโsย attacked the strike zone, missed batsย with his changeup and sliderย and induced a lot of soft contact when he has been able to pitch. The rest of the AL East should hope his shoulder problems arenโt over yet.
101. James Paxton, Seattle Mariners
Control: 16/30; Whiffability: 16/25; Hittability: 13/25; Workhorse: 10/20
A left shoulder injury sidelined James Paxton for three months, leaving us little to judge him by. Whatโs there is largely positive, though. His fastball command is still a work in progress, but heโs shown he canย at least stay lowย and get ground balls. Even better is how hitters haveย had no answersย for his curveball. Itโs all still just potential for now, but said potential looks pretty legit.
100-76: Niese-Hendricks
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100. Jon Niese, New York Mets
Control: 19/30; Whiffability: 8/25; Hittability: 16/25; Workhorse: 12/20
Health problems have continued to plague Jonย Niese, and itโs because of those that workload expectations have to be kept low. Add in how he canโt miss many bats, and his potential is limited. He can be a good study on how to pitch, though, as heโs generally good atย keeping the ball downย and can induce bothย ground ballsย andย medium-depth fly balls.
99. C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels
Control: 10/30; Whiffability: 11/25; Hittability: 18/25; Workhorse: 16/20
Though heโs triedย throwing more fastballs, C.J. Wilsonโs still never had more troubleย hitting the zoneย than heโs had this year. Thatโs saying a lot for a guy whoโs known to have iffy command, and itโs contributed to Wilsonโs struggles eating innings. The better news is that heโs gone back to being aย good ground-ball pitcher, and in general, his wildness and wide array of pitches make him a hard guy to square up.
98. Jesse Hahn, San Diego Padres
Control: 10/30; Whiffability: 15/25; Hittability: 18/25; Workhorse: 12/20
Aย curveball-heavy approachย and some serious movement on all his pitches makes it tough for Jesse Hahn to consistently throw strikes, and efficiency eludes him because of that. But while that barrier will be tough to overcome, that hitters have a devil of a time hittingย andย squaring up his stuff means thereโs a home for him in a big league rotation.ย
97. CC Sabathia, New York Yankees
Control: 23/30; Whiffability: 13/25; Hittability: 10/25; Workhorse: 10/20
Itโs still unclear how ready CCย Sabathiaย will be to pitch in 2015. And given what happened when he was healthy, banking on vintage CC makingย a comeback is foolery. But his early season performance wasnโt all bad. He showed good command and an ability to get ground balls, and he actuallyย missed batsย better than he did in 2013. If he can stay healthy,ย Sabathiaย may still have some good pitching in him.
96. Jesse Chavez, Oakland A's
Control: 20/30; Whiffability: 14/25; Hittability: 11/25; Workhorse: 11/20
The Aโs bumped Jesse Chavez to the bullpen when Jeffย Samardzijaย and Jasonย Hammelย arrived, but it wouldnโt be a surprise if he gets another shot to start in 2015. He earned it with his performance as a starter, mainly through good command that involved him working on the corners with his cutter and sinkerย against leftiesย and righties. His mistakes got hit hard, but they were relatively infrequent.
95. Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays
Control: 22/30; Whiffability: 10/25; Hittability: 13/25; Workhorse: 11/20
Since Jeremyย Hellicksonย returned from elbow surgery in July, heโs shown heโs still anย extreme fly-ball pitcherย who asks much of his outfield defense. But weโve also seen himย keep everything down, with his fastball command consisting of working on the edgesย against leftiesย and righties. Itโs also encouraging that his changeup hasย never been harder to hit. In all, it looks like heโs gotten over his lost 2013 season.
94. Jason Hammel, Oakland A's
Control: 17/30; Whiffability: 15/25; Hittability: 11/25; Workhorse: 13/20
Hammelโsย season took a turn for the worse the minute he ended up in Oakland, and it was bound to happen givenย his spotty commandย of a fastball thatโs losing some zip andย a fly-ball styleย that he overachieved with in Chicago. Thatย Hammelย has at least stayed healthy is a silver lining, however, and thereโs plenty to like about how this season has featuredย a complete rebirthย of his slider.ย
93. Jarred Cosart, Miami Marlins
Control: 14/30; Whiffability: 8/25; Hittability: 21/25; Workhorse: 13/20
Jarred Cosartย should be better at getting swinging strikes with the kind of arm he has, but there sadlyย hasnโt been much progressย in that department in 2014. But heโs been far better at finding the zone than he was in his major league cameo in 2013, and heโs specialized in bothย ground ballsย andย weak fly balls. So though he could be a lot better, he can do enough to pass for solid.
92. Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 17/25; Hittability: 15/25; Workhorse: 10/20
Carlos Rodonย has everything one looks for in a potential No. 1 starter with a durable frame, three offerings with plus or better potential and the type of competitive mound presence that canโt be taught. As long asย Rodonย can stay healthy, it shouldnโt take him long to emerge as one of baseballโs premier left-handed pitchers.ย
91. Josh Beckett, Los Angeles Dodgers
Control: 18/30; Whiffability: 16/25; Hittability: 13/25; Workhorse: 10/20
Josh Beckettโs newย curveball-heavy approachย has largely worked wonders, namely helping to keep hisย swinging-strike rateย steady and allowing him to more easily keep hitters off balance. Itโs too bad that heโs still aย homer-prone fly-ball pitcherย even despite that, and three separate DL stints (the latest likely a season-ender) signal pretty clearly that he still canโt be counted on to stay healthy.
90. Justin Masterson, St. Louis Cardinals
Control: 10/30; Whiffability: 15/25; Hittability: 18/25; Workhorse: 14/20
If you focus only on Mastersonโs sinker and slider, everythingโs fine. The former can stillย get ground balls, and the latter can still get whiffs. But what was already suspect command has been made worse by right knee trouble, making him more prone to disaster outings. Heโll make a good reclamation project this winter, but for now heโs definitely lost his status as one of baseballโs top pitchers.
89. Jeff Locke, Pittsburgh Pirates
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 13/25; Hittability: 15/25; Workhorse: 14/20
You still donโt know what Jeff Lockeโs command is going to be like on days when he takes the ball, and he has a tendency to give up home runs. However, simplifying things toย a sinker-changeup approachย has helped his command become more consistent than it was in 2013. And aside from the home runs, heโs still aย solid bet for ground balls.
88. Chris Young, Seattle Mariners
Control: 20/30; Whiffability: 7/25; Hittability: 18/25; Workhorse: 12/20
Maybe Chris Youngโs greatest feat this season has been simply staying healthy, even if itโs required him to handle aย pretty light workload. But heโs also shown that heโs still very much capable of doing his own thing. Namely, pitching up and away fromย both leftiesย and rightiesย with good consistency andย getting pop-upsย andย harmless fly ballsย thanks to equal parts location and impressiveย rise on his four-seamer. Itโs a unique approach, but this year has been a reminder that he makes it work.
87. Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians
Control: 12/30; Whiffability: 17/25; Hittability: 15/25; Workhorse: 13/20
Trevor Bauer hasnโt figured it all out yet, as he hasnโt mastered minimizing walks and is basically incapable of keeping his fastballย low in the zone. But progress has been made, as heโs at least been able toย find the zoneย fairly consistently and has shown he can miss bats and induceย shallow fly balls. This isnโt star-level stuff without efficiency, but Bauerโs showing he can at least survive in the big leagues.
86. Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh Pirates
Control: 15/30; Whiffability: 10/25; Hittability: 18/25; Workhorse: 14/20
The best thing Charlie Morton has going for him is his ability toย induce ground balls, which happens when you throw as many sinkersย as he does. Heโs had some issues with walks this year, however, and it doesnโt bode well that his sinker has gotten a lot easier toย hit on a lineย this season. And given his age (nearly 31), his seasonย coming to a haltย because of a sports hernia is another troubling development.
85. Brett Oberholtzer, Houston Astros
Control: 20/30; Whiffability: 9/25; Hittability: 15/25; Workhorse: 14/20
Brett Oberholtzerโsย one of the moreย unheralded zone-poundersย in the game right now, and he has aย fly-ball styleย that works thanks to how he can keep hitters off balance with his curveball and changeup. Now he just needs to stop throwing his heatย down the middleย and develop a consistent way to get swinging strikes.
84. Vance Worley, Pittsburgh Pirates
Control: 25/30; Whiffability: 4/25; Hittability: 14/25; Workhorse: 15/20
Vance Worley stillย canโt miss batsย worth a darn, and he stillย hasnโt fully curedย his case ofย gopheritis. And yet he no longer looks like a throwaway starter. He still has the extremelyย hard-heavy approachย that he had before, but his time with the Pirates has consisted largely of him assaulting the strike zone and holding lineups in check through sheer efficiency. Thatโll do for a comeback.
83. Alfredo Simon, Cincinnati Reds
Control: 20/30; Whiffability: 9/25; Hittability: 15/25; Workhorse: 14/20
Alfredo Simonโs All-Star performance in the first half of 2014 was never built to last, as too much was built on a unsustainablyย low average on balls in play against him. Nonetheless, heโs shown that he has some merits, chief among them being good control and a solid ability to keep the ball on the ground.
82. Wei-Yin Chen, Baltimore Orioles
Control: 25/30; Whiffability: 10/25; Hittability: 9/25; Workhorse: 14/20
Wei-Yin Chen has issues with hard contact being made against him, with the biggest of them being the ease with which righties pullย long fly balls off him. And even though heโsย gaining velocity, his hard stuff is actually gettingย easier to hit. The reason we can forgive faults like these is because Chen nowย rarely goes outside the zone, allowing him to continue eating a decent amount of innings.
81. Wade Miley, Arizona Diamondbacks
Control: 16/30; Whiffability: 14/25; Hittability: 12/25; Workhorse: 16/20
You have to appreciate how consistently Wadeย Mileyย keeps his pitches down, and he reaps the benefits by getting ground balls and (more recently) swings and misses. But his stuff isnโt overpowering, and heโs becomingย more and more hesitantย to challenge hitters in the strike zone. I suppose anyone would if they had Mileyโs problemsย with the long ball.
80. R.A. Dickey, Toronto Blue Jays
Control: 10/30; Whiffability: 17/25; Hittability: 14/25; Workhorse: 17/20
Though it only shows up so much in his strikeout rate, R.A. Dickeyโs knuckleball has had a much easier timeย missing batsย in 2014 than it did in 2013. Heโs also still a great source of innings, putting in at least six and 100 pitches virtually every time out. But it doesnโt look so good that heโs having more and more troubleย finding the zoneย and that itโs getting easier every year to hit his knucklerย on a line.
79. Mat Latos, Cincinnati Reds
Control: 18/30; Whiffability: 12/25; Hittability: 13/25; Workhorse: 15/20
The start of Matย Latosโ season was delayed by injuries, and heโs just looked off ever since he returned. Hisย velocity is way downย from 2013 levels, and heโs also been more hesitant to use his slider. Related to these two things is how heโs hadย trouble missing batsย and keeping the ballย out of the air. Heโs made it clear he still has the goods he needs to produce, but his usual dominance is nowhere in sight.ย
78. Shane Greene, New York Yankees
Control: 19/30; Whiffability: 12/25; Hittability: 15/25; Workhorse: 13/20
Though heย doesnโt always hit the zone, Shane Greene has definitely shown he canย keep the ball down. In doing so, he puts himself in line toย get ground ballsย while also making stuff thatโs not that overpoweringย lookย overpowering. Itโs the kind of mix that could keep Greene in the Yankees rotation, not to mention potentially allow him to make this score look conservative (which it sort of is).
77. Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers
Control: 18/30; Whiffability: 11/25; Hittability: 16/25; Workhorse: 14/20
Though he hasnโt logged a significant amount of action in the majors, Jimmy Nelsonโs shown that his sinker is definitely cut out toย get ground ballsย in the big leagues while also avoiding a repeat of the walk problems that plagued his 2013 season. If he canย get his sinker downย more consistently while putting more trust in his slider, heโll have no trouble outperforming the score Iโve given him.
76. Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs
Control: 20/30; Whiffability: 8/25; Hittability: 17/25; Workhorse: 14/20
Albeit in a small sample size, what Kyle Hendricks has shown since his arrival in the majors is encouraging. Heย doesnโt work in the zoneย as much as his walk rate suggests, but his ability to keep the ball low in the zoneย makes hitters protectย and leads to ground balls. You donโt want to get too excited about a small sample, but these are the kinds of abilities that tend to play well for a while.
75. Matt Shoemaker, Los Angeles Angels
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Control
Matt Shoemaker throws a four-seamerย and sinkerย in equal tandemย while also mixing in a healthy dose of sliders, splitters and curveballs, and when he pitches, youโll see himย keep everything down. Regarding his fastball command, he has little trouble setting up shop on the outside cornerย against leftiesย and pounding rightiesย both in and out. So though heโsย not especially adeptย at living in the zone, heโs able to get by because he toys with it extremely well.ย
Whiffability
With velocity that sits in justย the 90-91 mph range, Shoemaker doesnโt have the arm to blow hitters away. But the command we just talked about is helpful in setting hitters up for hisย secondaries, and his slider and splitter are quietly dangerous pitches. Theyโre getting whiffs on easilyย over 30 percent of the swingsย taken at them, giving him two quality pitches to miss bats with.ย
Hittability
Though Shoemaker locates well and doesnโt rely heavily on his four-seamer, he still has issuesย getting ground balls. Hitters havenโt had trouble squaring up his four-seamerย or sinkerย for line drives, which makes limiting hard contact tough. He also doesnโt get pop-ups, making him highly dependent on his outfield defense. And though heโs capable of keeping fly balls shallow, heย doesnโt quite specialize in it.
Workhorse
In other words: Weโre still finding out. Though theyโve been largely good, Shoemakerโs starts this year have been too sporadic for him to really settle in as a starter. Thatโs a factor in him averaging onlyย around 90 pitches per start. That and theย shakiness of his velocityย after the first inning says weโre best off not setting the bar too high for Shoemaker.
Overall
Though Shoemaker hasnโt played too big a part in the Angelsโ successful season, heโs definitely been one of the unsung heroes. His slider and splitter are good weapons, and he has the command to maximize their usefulness. And with the injuries to Tyler Skaggs and Garrett Richards, Shoemaker should be on the Angelsโ rotation radar for 2015.ย
74. Drew Smyly, Tampa Bay Rays
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Control
Drew Smylyโsย return to starting in 2014 has involved him being at his bestย pounding the zone. He makes things easy on himself by throwingย about 70 percentย fastballs and cutters, with his main strength being hitting the outside cornerย against lefties. He does have a tendency to stray over the middleย against righties, however. Knowing that he doesnโt have overpowering stuff, itโs imperative that he fix that.ย
Whiffability
With velocity that sitsย around 90,ย Smylyย doesnโt have the kind of four-seam fastball that he can blow by hitters. But one thing thatโs happened since heย joined the Rays is that heโs put more trust in his cutter, which is a classic case of the Rays having the right idea.ย Smylyโsย cutter isย among the bestย at missing bats. Since his curveball is anotherย solid whiff pitch, itโs likely his bestย whiffabilityย is yet to come.ย
Hittability
Smylyย is primarily aย fly-ball pitcher. Thatโs usually the case with pitchers who rely heavily on four-seamers, and for the most part he'sย had troubleย limiting long fly balls. His four-seamerย does have the distinction of beingย very good at getting pop-ups, however, and thereโs promise in how a better mix of his pitches with the Rays has helped him turn long fly balls intoย shallow flies and pop-ups.
Workhorse
Smyly has struggled with eating innings in 2014. He's only lasted six in about half his starts, and itโs notable that he was working with his best velocityย in April and May. Though this yearโs experience and assorted improvements should help in 2015, heโll enter the season with a lot of work to do to establish himself as a reliable innings-eater.ย
Overall
Regardless of which specific aspect of his game youโre looking at,ย Smylyย is best characterized as a work in progress. But he arrived in Tampa Bay with the command and stuff to be at least a solid mid-rotation starter, and it already looks like the Rays have helped him fine-tune some things to a point where he could be just that.ย
73. Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays
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Control
Jake Odorizziย has gotten better at limiting walks in the second half, but itโs still hard to get overly excited about his command. He has the right idea in trying to set hitters up to swing over his split-change byย working up in the zoneย with his four-seamer. Trouble is heโs prone to both miss the zone and end up over the middle of it, so more fine-tuning is clearly neededย
Whiffability
Odorizziย is flirting with 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings, and he has theย swinging-strike rateย to back that up. His four-seamerย and split-change, ahem,ย split the credit for that. His split-change gets hitters with late movement, and the mere threat of it helps make his four-seamerย better at blowing hitters away than mostย 90-91 four-seamers. If he continues to sharpen his command, this dynamic should only get better.
Hittability
Guys who pitch up in the zone with their heat tend to be fly-ball pitchers, andย Odorizziย is no different. To this end, his four-seamerย fortunately has someย legit vertical movementย to help itย get pop-ups. Itโs good that he gets those, because he has a tendency toย give up long fly ballsย when heโs not keeping the ball in the infield. Heโs probably lucky he hasnโt given up more home runs.
Workhorse
Odorizziย isnโt even averagingย six innings or 100 pitches per start. Thatโs what happens when youโre spending much of your time mixing walks with strikeouts and fly balls, and it doesnโt help that his fastball velocity hasย started to leak a little. So even if we do him the kindness of assuming that this yearโs experience will serve him well, heโll still have a ways to go to establish himself as a workhorse in 2015.ย
Overall
Consistency has largely evadedย Odorizziย in his first full season, and heโs brought that on himself with hit-or-miss command and hard-hit balls. But if heโs proved anything, heโs proved that his fastball/split-change combination is downright dangerous.ย
72. Matt Garza, Milwaukee Brewers
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Control
The 2014 season has seen Matt Garza goย heavy on the fastballs, but also pitchย within the zoneย less frequently. Thatโs made him heavily reliant on swings at his slider. Itโs a good thing heโs at least been decent at setting hitters up for those, primarily keeping his fastball low againstย both leftiesย and righties. Itโs an approach that invites the occasional battle with wildness, but itโs one that he can make work.
Whiffability
A return to the National League surprisingly hasnโt made Garza a better strikeout pitcher orย swing-and-miss magnet. That is, itโs surprising until you notice that hisย fastball velocity is down, and that his fastballโsย whiffabilityย isย down with it. Things are only likely to get worse as he gets further into his 30s. Itโs a good thing, then, that his slider is still among theย nastiest swing-and-miss pitchesย out there.
Hittability
One thing Garzaย isย doing better isย inducing ground balls. He doesnโt use his sinker that much, but he has gone to itย more this seasonย and has benefited from it getting back to being the ground-ball pitchย it was in 2012. Whatโs less trustworthy is Garzaโs much-improved home run rate. Though heโs not bad at keeping hitters off balance, hisย fly-ball heat mapย can vouch that he hasnโt been immune to long fly balls.
Workhorse
Garzaโs capable of eating innings when heโs healthy, as heโs averaged aroundย six innings and 95 pitchesย this season even with a couple of disaster outings thrown in. But the โwhen heโs healthyโ part is the tricky part. Garza has lost starts to the DL in each of the last four seasons. Now that he's getting older, not the best idea to expect his health to start cooperating so he can be a 200-inning guy again.
Overall
Garzaโs first year with the Brewers has been more of an adventure than his solid ERA indicates, and this is also yet another season in which he hasnโt been able to stay healthy. But as long as he still has his wicked slider and good-enough control to go with it, he still has what he needs to be an effective mid-rotation starter.
71. Wily Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
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Control
Peralta has cleaned up the issue he had with walks in 2013, and heโs done it the easy way. Heโs not throwingย many more fastballs, but he is throwingย more fastballs in the zone. Theyโre mostly good strikes, too, as he works primarily in theย bottom two-thirds of the zone. He is better at working in the lower thirdย against lefties, though, as his hard stuff can too often be over the middleย against righties.
Whiffability
Though he sits in theย 95-96 rangeย with his hard stuff, Peralta hasnโt gotten any better than mediocre atย missing bats. Really the only pitch he has thatโs worth a darn getting whiffs is his slider. And though itโsย hardly the worst sliderย at missing bats, itโs not good enough to elevate hisย whiffabilityย all on its own. Knowing this, itโs not worth it to see if he becomes aย better strikeout artist.
Hittability
With relatively few whiffs coming his way, Peralta settles for getting ground balls instead. Thatโs something heโsย quite good at, mainly thanks to how his sinker and slider are both goodย ground-ball pitches. Whatโs less believable is that his four-seamerย is really as good as a ground-ball pitch as itโs been in 2014. And thatโs a scary thought, as a home run problem that already exists could get worse if hitters get back to elevating his four-seamer.ย
Workhorse
Peraltaโs move to add some good command to his ability to get ground balls has helped make him more efficient, in turn allowing him to be good forย six innings and 100 pitchesย when he takes the ball. But heโs not the kind of guy whoโs going to go eight innings regularly, and him taking that leap in 2015 isnโt likely to happen if he does indeed regress as a ground-ball magnet.
Overall
As a guy who throws hard but canโt get whiffs and who gets ground balls and also gives up home runs, Peraltaโs something of a hard guy to figure out. But he only needed to improve his command to make himself better than a mere back-end starter, and the 2014 season has seen him do that.
70. Bartolo Colon, New York Mets
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Control
All Colon does is throw fastballs in the strike zone, asย over 80 percentย of his pitches are heaters and he once again has a zone rateย around 50 percent. And for the most part, he doesnโt just throw them up there. He lives on the outside edgeย against lefties, and mainly around the outside cornerย against righties. The only reason we say โfor the most partโ is because heโs also thrown more fastballs right down Broadwayย than anyone else.
Whiffability
Colon has been getting more strikeouts than he did with Oakland in 2013, but not because heโs been gettingย more swinging strikes. He hasnโt been, as thereโs only so much you can do to blow hitters away when youโreย throwing 88-89ย and rarely changing speeds. And because he has lost about a mile per hour in average velocity from 2013 to 2014, odds are missing bats wonโt get any easier next year.
Hittability
Not that Colon was much of a ground-ball pitcher before, but heโsย even less of one now. Heโs been surrendering more line drives and fly balls, and heโsย needed Citi Fieldย to help him contain the latter. No wonder, as many of the flies heโs given upย have been well-hit. And if he does indeed suffer another velocity loss in 2015, it could impact him here, too.
Workhorse
Iโll avoid making a crack about Colon being good at eating innings and settle for noting that heโs been good for close toย seven innings per start. This is despite the fact heโs only needed around 100 pitches each time he's on the mound, which speaks to his efficiency. Still, it is folly to count on a guy whoโs already 41 years old to flirt with 200 innings, especially knowing that his stuff isnโt getting any sharper.
Overall
Itโs been the same formula for Colon the last couple years: throw strikes, avoid walks, hope they donโt hit the ball too hard. Though this formula hasnโt been as effective in 2014 as it was in 2013, it still gets results. And come 2015, it should still be a good bet.ย
69. Collin McHugh, Houston Astros
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Control
McHugh is the rare backwards pitcher,ย working off his curveball and sliderย rather than off his four-seam fastball. Unless youโre Bronson Arroyo, itโs hard to do thatย andย avoid walks. But McHugh is actually better than most atย finding the zone, largely because he throws more breaking balls in the zoneย than anyone else. Itโs too bad he also throws more breaking ballsย down the middleย than anyone else.
Whiffability
McHugh can vouch that a breaking ball-heavy style is better for the strikeout column than it is for the walk column. Heโs gotten plenty, withย plenty of swinging strikesย being the driving force. His curveball has done the bulk of the work, ranking up there among theย most whiffable curveballsย in the league, but heโs alsoย added some velocityย to his four-seamerย to make it aย solid bet for missing batsย in its own right.
Hittability
Youโd expect a guy who throws so many breaking balls to be a good ground-ball pitcher, but McHugh isnโt. Hitters havenโt had troubleย squaring him upย for line drives and fly balls, and he hasnโt had the easiest time keeping the ball in the yard. Fortunately, though, most fly balls off him haveย mainly been shallow. Thereโs your reminder that driving a breaking ball in the air isnโt as easy as getting it in the air.
Workhorse
McHugh is off to a solid start building his track record as an innings-eater, averagingย six inningsย and 100 pitches. Exactly how much better he can be while mixing a high strikeout rate with about an average walk rate and few-ish ground balls is a fair question, as is how his arm will hold up amid so many breaking balls.
Overall
McHughโs 2014 season is one for the โOut of Nowhereโ file, but that doesnโt mean it should be ignored and forgotten. Not too many guys can make an extreme reliance on breaking balls work like he does, and hitters have shown throughout the season that thereโs only so much they can do to solve him.ย
68. Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres
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Control
With the kind of velocity heโs working with, you canโt blameย Cashnerย forย throwing more fastballs. And with so many fastballs, heโs had little troubleย hitting the zoneย and putting more and more heaters at theย bottom of the zone. The only real catch is that itโs his sinkerย heโs throwing more, and the pitch moves so much that he might have trouble cleaning up the wildness itโs led toย on his arm side.ย
Whiffability
Youโd think a guy who canย sit 94-95ย and touch the upper 90s with his fastball would be a big-time strikeout artist. Butย Cashnerย actuallyย doesnโt throw that manyย fastballs by hitters, leaving it up to his slider to get whiffs. Itโs good at doing so, but it plays too much of a second fiddle to his hard stuff to get him whiffs on a consistent basis. As such, itโs actually hard to have high hopes forย Cashnerโsย whiffability.
Hittability
In lieu of whiffs,ย Cashnerย gets ground balls. Using his sinker more has helped, but his four-seamerย has also had anย easy time getting grounders. Thatโs typically unsustainable, but his four-seamerย suddenly has almost as muchย horizontal movementย as his sinker. Then thereโs how manyย shallow fly ballsย heย has gotten, completing the portrait of a pitcher who specializes in jamming batters.
Workhorse
This is still the big question whereย Cashnerย is concerned. He has a strong pitcherโs build at 6โ6โ and 220 pounds, but he just canโt stay healthy. It was true before 2013, and his old injury troubles came back when a shoulder injury put him on the disabled list for two months.ย Heย has all the goods to be a top innings-eater, but his injury track record makes it hard to count on him becoming one.
Overall
Cashnerย has always had terrific stuff, and heโs shown in the last two seasons that he can command the ball well enough and jam enough hitters with it to be a successful pitcher even without whiffs. But the big asterisk with him is still whether he can stay healthy, so heโs very much a tentative inclusion at the top of our starting pitcher totem pole.
67. Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Control
Cole hasnโt been able to duplicate the rock-solid 2.15 BB/9 he posted in 2013, but itโs not because he hasnโt been able toย find the strike zone. The bigger problem has been a lack of swings outside the strike zone. But you do have to earn those, and Cole needs to do that by doing a better job of setting hitters up. He can get his fastball in the zone just fine, but heโsย not so greatย at putting hitters in protect mode by hitting the edges. Until he can do that, his command will be good, but well short of great.
Whiffability
A guy who can sitย at 95-96ย and touch 100 with his heater with a trio of mid-80sย secondariesย should be elite at missing bats. But thatโs still more Coleโs potential than his reality, in part because his four-seamerย isย surprisingly mediocreย at missing bats. His slider, curveball and changeup are all better, but he wonโt be able to take full advantage of that until heโs ready or able (see above) to trust them to do so.
Hittability
One thing thatโs stayed consistent from 2013 is Cole has had little troubleย getting ground balls, with his four-seamer, sinker, curveball and slider all doing the work. And while thatโs unusual for four-seamers, his is lethal enough both velocity- and movement-wise to be an exception. Said four-seamerย can beย taken for a ride, though, and that can happen when you misfire with velocity as much as he does.
Workhorse
This is us essentially giving Cole an โincomplete.โ Though heโs been allowed to throw more pitches this season, heย hasnโt been able to pitch deeperย into games. Then thereโs the reality that he hasnโt been able to stay healthy, losing two months to the DL with a bad shoulder. So when 2015 comes, weโll still be looking for Cole to prove he can make his talent last throughout a whole season.
Overall
Cole hasnโt blossomed into the ace-level pitcher he teased he could be in 2013, in part because of his shoulder problems and in part because of various weaknesses that still exist in his game. But thereโs no doubt that he still has the goods to be an ace pitcher, and heโll be just that in 2015 if he can stay healthy while also fine-tuning his command.
66. Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
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Control
Gallardoโs walk rate hasย recovered nicelyย from two rough seasons, and heโs done it the old-fashioned way: by beingย more aggressive in the zone. He doesnโt hit the zone as often as the average starter, but heโs helped himself by being more willing to goย right after hittersย with his heat rather than try to toy with them like he wasย doing in 2013. Itโs been a good change.
Whiffability
Gallardo has turned around a downward trend withย his fastball velocity, and in doing soย has rescued his hard stuffโsย whiffabilityย from oblivion. Whether he can keep this up in his age-29 season is a good question, however, so itโs a good thing his curve and slider are still going relatively strong at missing bats. Heโll need that to continue, lest he start missing even fewer bats than he already is.
Hittability
Gallardo hasnโt ditched hisย problem with home runsย yet, but things are looking up. Heโs only getting better atย inducing ground ballsย as the years go on, and thereโs a strong correlation between that and how much heย trusts his sinker. And with his trust in his sinkerย only growing strongerย in the last couple months, it could be weโll see even more ground balls in 2015.
Workhorse
Gallardo has essentially gone back to normal afterย struggling to averageย six innings and 100 pitches per start in 2013, which is what good command and an improved ground-ball rate can do for you. And while he may be as good as heโs going to get from a command standpoint, the potential for more ground balls moving forward means there should be more innings for him to work.
Overall
We can call it a comeback. Gallardo has responded to a rough 2013 season by doing what needed to be done: Throw the ball in the strike zone and aim to get ground balls. Though not as dominant as he was several years ago, this new Gallardo is pretty good.
65. Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves
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Control
Walks have been more frequent for Minor than they were in 2013. Not so coincidentally,ย pitches in the zoneย have been less frequent. That heโs had trouble finding the zoneย with his hard stuffย is a big factor. There are valid explanations, of course. Minor has had a hard time getting in a rhythm after injuries delayed the start of his season, and heโs also tried something new byย throwing more sinkers. So though we canโtย notย punish him for his iffy command, itโs fair to assume itโs only temporary.
Whiffability
Minorโs velocity is still sitting in theย 90-91 mph range, and both his four-seamerย and his sinkerย have been missing bats. But he otherwise hasnโt been missing batsย as frequentlyย as he did in 2013. His spotty command hasnโt helped, but itโs also notable that his curveball and cutter have seen theirย whiffabilityย go down the last two seasons after peaking in 2012. Such as it is, thatโs not an encouraging trend.
Hittability
Minorโs been killed by home runs this year. Thatโs always a danger to happen to fly-ball pitchers, andย thatโs the direction he leans. The silver lining is that Minor has actually seen his fly-ball rate take a dive, and not by accident.ย Thatโs the workย of his increased sinker usage, which is a good sign. If he elevates his use of his sinker even more in 2015, he should be able to avoid another home run barrage.
Workhorse
One way you can tell that Minor is in need of a normal offseason following his early-year shoulder problems is in looking at how much hisย velocity has fallen offย after the first inning this year. But even despite that and some of the rougher outings heโs had to endure, heโs still averaged right aroundย six innings and 100 pitches. Come 2015, he should be ready to make another run at 200 innings.
Overall
Largely due to home runs and less-than-pinpoint command, Minorโs season has been a rough one for the most part. His command is hardly bad, however, and his early shoulder problems have impacted him more from an endurance standpoint than from a stuff standpoint. Heโll be better come 2015. Perhaps even better than ever if he continues this yearโs experiment with his sinker.
64. Zack Wheeler, New York Mets
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Control
After showing flashes of good command potential in 2013, Wheeler hasn't improved a lot. Heโs still having trouble with walks, and hasnโt gotten any better atย finding the strike zone. His issues boil down to his fastball command. If he doesnโt miss the zoneโwhich he often doesโheโs prone toย stray down the middle. Thereโs plenty of room for Wheeler to grow, but he needs to show he can.
Whiffability
Wheelerโs issues with his command havenโt barred him from missing batsย better than he did in 2013. That heโsย throwing a little harderย has helped him throw his four-seamerย pastย more hitters, and his curveball is emerging as an elite weapon. Itโsย among the best in the leagueย at missing bats, and him trading in his slider for more curvesย in Augustย could be an indicator of an exciting new direction.
Hittability
Another thing thatโs helping Wheeler make up for his iffy control is hisย newfound ground-ball habit. Thatโs not happening by accident, as heโs traded in someย four-seamers for sinkersย and has reaped the benefits. His sinker gets ground ballsย roughly 50 percentย of the time itโs in play. Heโll need to keep up this transition, asย his fly-ball mapย isnโt the most encouraging thing.
Workhorse
Though ground balls are good for efficiency, poor control and lots of whiffs arenโt as good. Itโs therefore no surprise that Wheeler hasnโt been much more reliable than he was in 2013, still barely averagingย six innings per startย despite also averaging over 100 pitches. Heโs not going to do better until he learns efficiency, and thatโs not a safe bet.
Overall
The biggest thing holding Wheeler back is his difficulty finding consistent fastball command, which will need to be fixed before he can become an elite pitcher. But heโs shown that he has the goods to get ground balls and whiffs, and thatโs enough to make him a pretty good pitcher.
63. Derek Holland, Texas Rangers*
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*Finally returned from offseason knee surgery on September 2, but the following analysis looking ahead to 2015 will be based on his 2013 season.
Control
In 2013, Holland posted a 2.70 BB/9 with aย 46.8 zone rate. Solid, if not spectacular. Thatโs also a good way to describe his fastball command. When he wasnโt missing outsideย against lefties, he tended to miss down the middle. And while he was generally good atย pounding rightiesย in on their hands, he tended to stray over the middle against them, too. If Holland keeps it up in 2015, command will be merely a modest strength.
Whiffability
While his command was just OK, Holland did have a solid 7.99 K/9 and 9.9ย swinging-strike rateย in 2013. He wasnโt actually that good at blowing hitters away with hisย 93-94 heat, but he was good at using it to set up his slider. Few could hit it, as it ended up being one of theย five most whiffable slidersย thrown by starting pitchers last year. If he still has that pitch, heโll miss his share of bats.
Hittability
Holland finished 2013 with just a 40.8ย ground-ball percentage, which is what you risk when you pitch up in the zone with a four-seamer. In lieu of ground balls, everything he threw got easier toย hit for line drives. And while he got his share ofย medium-depth fly balls, he didnโt get as many as his 8.8 home run-per-fly-ball rate indicated. When hitters could actually make contact, hitting Holland wasnโt too tough.
Workhorse
Hollandโs knee injury interrupted his progress toward becoming aย better and better workhorse. But though thatโs an excuse to play it safe with this score, it should be kept in mind that his arm is fine and that heโs still only 27-going-on-28. Assuming he has no limitationsโand I can't imagine why he wouldโhe should be able to pick up where he left off in 2015.
Overall
Including Holland in this countdown despite him having only madeย one start in 2014 may seem, well, off. But remember, part of what we're doing here is focusing on who's going to be good in 2015. Holland's a good bet for two reasons: he's going to be healthy, and he was really good in 2013. Like, arguably top 12 in MLB good. Surely he'll be able to handle being top-65 good next year.
62. Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins
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Control
Gibsonโs done a good enough job of keeping his walk rate down, but he hasnโt done itย by pounding the zone. He gets by more on hitters helping him out, mainly through playing with theย bottom of the zoneย with his sinker. Heโs better at doing thatย against lefties, frequently hitting the outside corner, but his style of burying sinkers around theย knees of rightiesย works well because of theย swings he draws.ย
Whiffability
Itโs not reflected in his strikeout rate, but Gibsonโs not bad at drawingย swings and misses. Though hisย 91-92 fastball velocityย isnโt good enough to blow hitters away, he does have a changeup and slider that are solid, if not spectacular,ย whiff pitches. Itโs doubtful that weโll see him fully embrace these pitches and try to become more of a strikeout pitcher, but theyโre there if he needs a whiff in a pinch. ย
Hittability
Gibson isย very good at gettingย two very good things: ground balls and pop-ups. The ground balls are the work of his sinker, whichย gets groundersย around 60 percent of the time itโs put in play. His four-seamerย gets the pop-ups, a function of him using it to surprise hitters looking for his sinker. The book will get around about this, but it should continue being a mix that gets him plenty of soft contact.
Workhorse
With a relatively low-walk, low-strikeout and high-weak contact style, Gibson should have an efficient style that allows him to work deep into games. But while heโs shown he can certainly do that, the tightrope he has to walk to make it all work makes him prone to shorter outings. Hence the reason heโs had troubleย averaging six innings per startย this year, and he may only improve so much in 2015.
Overall
With his style of pitching, Gibsonโs likely to never attract much attention or headlines. Itโs not flashy, and it leaves him vulnerable to occasional bad starts. But starts like those should continue to only be occasional, as heโs proven himself to be capable of generally bamboozling hitters well enough to survive.
61. Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Control
Whenย Lirianoโsย on the mound, you canโt count on seeing many pitches in the strike zone. Thatโsย not his style, and heย doesnโt seem too interestedย in upping his fastball usage to change that. And even if he did, things might not change all that much. Whether itโsย against leftiesย orย against righties,ย Lirianoโsย ability to spot his fastball is wildly inconsistent. In so many words: Tom Glavine he is not.ย
Whiffability
This is howย Lirianoย gets strikes, and itโs thanks almost entirely to two pitches in particular: his changeup and slider. Both are getting whiffs onย over 40 percentย of the swings taken at them, giving him one of the gameโsย elite changeupsย and one of the gameโsย elite sliders. As long as those pitches keep working and he keeps throwing them more than his hard stuff, heโll be able to subsist on aย very strong whiff rate.
Hittability
Itโs not just whiffsย Lirianoย can get with his stuff. Heโs also excellent atย getting ground balls. That heโsย all but ditched his four-seamerย for a sinker since he arrived in Pittsburgh is still a factor, but his changeup and slider areย good ground-ball pitches, too. The one catch is that heโs given up quite a few dingers in 2014, and heโs lucky he hasnโt thrown more knowing how manyย long fly ballsย heโs surrendered.
Workhorse
Injuries have barredย Lirianoย from making 30 starts in three of the last four seasons (including this one), and itโs hard to count on injuries staying at bay now that heโs in his 30s. Also, his ability to induce ground balls only does so much to balance his tendency to run his pitch count up with walks and strikeouts. When he takes the ball, six innings is more like the goal rather than the expectation.
Overall
Lirianoย embodies the term โeffectively wildโ better than any other starter in the majors. Though he rarely goes in the strike zone, his stuff is so good that heโs able to get away with it. Specifically, he gets away with it because of whiffs and ground balls, two things that are ideal for pitchers.
60. Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
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Control
Wildness is still part of theย Gioย Gonzalez experience. Thatโs evident in both his high walk rate andย low zone rateย this year, and it hasnโt helped that heโs continued toย decrease his fastball usageย from its 2012 peak. He also tries to be too fine with his fastball commandย against righties, missing in, out and down the middle as he tries to work on the edges. Given his track record, that's just how things are.ย
Whiffability
The main bright side of Gonzalezโs wildness is that itโs part of what helps him get swings and misses. Heโs doing thatย better than everย in 2014, and another element outside of his inconsistency would be hisย increased trust in his changeup. Itโs actuallyย getting swings and missesย more frequently than his trademark curveball, and has also helped make his hard stuff easier to swing through. That makes it easier to swallow Gonzalezโsย slowly declining velocity.
Hittability
Because heโs going with more of a fastball-light approach, Gonzalez has been able to boostย his ground-ball rateย slightly from where it was in 2013. Thatโs a good sign, as it signals there will be more ground balls if he continues to phase out his hard stuff. And though heโs generally pretty good at keeping fly balls in the yard, one weakness is how easy it is for righty hitters toย pull deep drives off him.
Workhorse
Gonzalezโs pitching style works for the most part, but issuing walks and racking up strikeouts is the quickest way to high pitch counts. He can vouch, as heโs generally been just a six-inning guy in his career and isย struggling to be even thatย in 2014. Then we can factor in how heโs had some shoulder troubles and that heโs getting pretty close to 30 for an even iffier picture.
Overall
Gonzalezโs eternally iffy command can occasionally make him frustrating to watch, and it certainly limits his potential as an innings-eater. But nobody should lose sight of the fact he still has really good stuff, and itโs going to make up for his lack of command more often than not.
59. Mark Buehrle, Toronto Blue Jays
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Control
Buehrleย hasย visited the zoneย more frequently in 2014, in part because heโs relied on his โhardโ stuffย a bit moreย and in part because heโs put moreย changeups and curveballs in the zone. The latter is the important part, as his ability toย keep his soft stuff downย is what allows him toย pitch up in the zoneย with his 83-84 fastball. Itโs a risky venture, but the changing of the eye levels does help. And regardless of the specifics, itโs fun to watchย Buehrleย operate when his command is particularly good on a given day.
Whiffability
Youโll seeย Buehrleย get the occasional hitter to swing over a changeup or a curve below the knees, but whiffs have never been a big part of his game and arenโt about to become one. Heโs going light on both strikeoutsย and swinging strikes, withย none of his pitchesย being especially good at missing bats. And with his fastball velocity inching closer to 80 miles per hour, missing bats is likely only to get tougher.
Hittability
Buehrleย has been puttingย more trust in his sinkerย in recent years. But because itโs aย poor ground-ball pitchย by sinker standards, he still has to limit weak contact, mainly through generating off-balance swings. The good news is that heโs still pretty good at that. The less-good news is thatย line-drive ratesย on his key pitches are up, and long fly ballsย are hardly infrequent.ย
Workhorse
Itโs written in the stars somewhere thatย Buehrleย will make it to 200 innings no matter what year it is, which is what happens when youโreย good for six inningsย like clockwork. Hisย best days as an innings-eater are probably behind him, however. His ability to keep ticking with ever-diminishing stuff is admirable, but he can only do so much about said diminishing stuff making him prone to short outings.
Overall
Buehrle overachieved with a 2.04 ERA in his first 13 starts, though he has tapered off since. But because he can still spot the ball and keep hitters guessing, he hasnโt lost his reputation as one of baseballโs craftiest pitchers.
58. Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals
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Control
Ventura makes things easy on himself by (rightfully)ย relying heavily on his hard stuff, and itโs to his credit that heโsย better than the average starterย at finding the zone. His fastball command still needs a lot of work, though. When heโs not all over the place, he tends to pitch in the middle of the zoneย against leftiesย and righties. Heโs what you think of when you ponder a guy whoโs a thrower rather than a pitcher.
Whiffability
With his stuff, Ventura should be a much better strikeout pitcher. But thatโs as much a promise as an observation. Swinging strikesย havenโt been hardย for him to come by, in part because his 96-97 four-seamerย has been eliteย at missing bats. With his curveball and changeupย also being pretty good, thereโs plenty of potential for his swing-and-miss stuff to start collecting strikeouts in the near future.
Hittability
Ventura has managed to be anย above-average ground-ball pitcherย even despite his heavy reliance on his four-seamer. It helps that itโs really the only pitch he throws thatย doesnโt get ground balls. He does have Kauffman Stadium to thank forย limiting his home runs, however, and the reality is that heโs not immune to either line drives orย well-hit fly balls. When the ballโs not on the ground, things are dicey.
Workhorse
Ventura has done OK at retaining his velocity in his first full season, holding itย in gamesย andย recovering nicelyย from a lull in his velocity in May. But thereโs still the concern of him being only 6โ0โ and 180 pounds, and then we can factor in how his inefficiency has restricted him to beingย about a six-inning guy. Though heโll only be 24 next season, itโs still hard to imagine him being a big-time innings eater.
Overall
Ventura still has work to do to transform himself from a thrower into a pitcher, whether itโs regarding commanding the ball or generating more weak contact. Thereโs no question his arm alone makes him a special talent, though, and heโs shown that said arm can handle starting.
57. Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox
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Control
Quintana has simplified things,ย phasing out his cutter and sinkerย in favor of more four-seamers. After visiting the zone relatively infrequently in 2013, heโs nowย there more oftenย than the average starter. Itโs too bad his fastball command within the zone has seen himย go down the middleย too often, which is not ideal given that heโs throwing a straight fastball pretty much exclusively.
Whiffability
Though Quintana can strike out batters more often, heโs actually getting swinging strikesย less frequently. He doesnโt have much to overpower hitters, as his fastball velocity sits in theย 91-92 rangeย and his curveball and changeup are at best mediocreย swing-and-miss offerings. Without a signature whiff pitch, hisย whiffabilityย probably will remain stagnant.ย
Hittability
Quintana has maintained his status as about an averageย ground-ball pitcher, but the sustainability of that is suspect knowing that itโs partially owed to hisย four-seamerโs ground-ball rateย taking a hike. His more believable skill is generating weak contact through off-balance swings. His home run rate coming down makes sense, as heโs mixed his pitches well enough to keep theย medium-depth fly ballsย coming.
Workhorse
Quintana established himself as a six-inning guy on his way to pitching exactly 200 innings in 2013, and he hasnโt wavered in 2014. Heโs still onlyย about a six-inning guy, but heโs been good for more pitches per game. His velocity does tend toย peak early in games, however. That and his non-elite command and ability to miss bats help conspire to make outings longer than six innings relatively infrequent.
Overall
Quintanaโs not going to wow you most nights, as he possesses neither swing-and-miss stuff nor especially pinpoint command. But because heโs solid in those two departments and he can also pitch to contact effectively, he rarely fails to author respectable line scores when he takes the ball.
56. Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees
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Control
Kuroda is well-established as a guy who can limit walksย without pounding the zoneย that much, and his command of his sinker is what allows him to do that. Heโs good at using it to toy with theย bottom of the zone on his arm side, setting hitters up forย sliders and splittersย below the knees. Thatโs how he allows himself to consistently pick up strikes on swings outside the zone, making his system an effective one.
Whiffability
Kurodaโsย downward trending strikeout ratesย mirror hisย declining velocity, a distressing trend knowing that heโs creeping up on 40. But while they may not lead to many strikeouts, heโs still pretty good atย getting swinging strikes. Thatโs thanks mainly to how his slider and splitterย arenโt seriously decliningย and swing-and-miss pitches. As long as he has those, heโll be able to get the occasional whiff.
Hittability
Kurodaโs still aย good ground-ball pitcher, but not as good as he used to be. Hitters arenโt hitting his sinkerย into the groundย as much, and the way in which his four-seamerย has helped pick up some of the slack is likely unsustainable. But even if ground balls do become more infrequent, itโs good to know that heโs shown he can getย medium-depth fly balls. Thatโs him keeping hitters off-balance.
Workhorse
Though Kurodaโs velocity isnโt what it used to be, itโs a good look on him that he builds velocityย as he goes alongย in games. That helps him keep the innings coming, and heโs done that well enough to averageย roughly six innings per start. But thatโs probably as good as it gets knowing that he is mainly a smoke-and-mirrors pitcher now, and his arm may also have only so much gas left in it.
Overall
Granted, where Kuroda is even going to pitch in the majors again after this season is a good question. But he hasnโtโto my knowledge, anywayโdefinitively stated that heโsย notย coming back in 2015. If he does, heโs shown enough good command and general pitching know-how this season to prove he can make it even as a lesser version of his old self.
55. Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers
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Control
That Sanchez is operating with an improved walk rate over the one he had in 2013 is misleading. Rather than him getting significantly better atย pounding the zone, whatโs really going on is a big increase in contact. It hasnโt helped that his fastball command has been so inconsistent, as heโs been a little all over the place againstย both leftiesย and righties. In all, itโs not the most flattering picture.ย
Whiffability
Sanchez hasnโt been able to keep the whiffs coming like he did in 2013, with a main symptom beingย a velocity lossย rendering his four-seamerย more hittable. And with less of a consistent velocity differential, itโs no shock that his slider and changeup have also suffered. It should be granted that Sanchez is still a solid whiff pitcher, and heโll be better if his velocity comes back. But now that heโs 30, donโt count on it.
Hittability
Sanchezโs stuff hasnโt been getting whiffs like last year, but his secondary pitches are stillย doing their partย to keep the ground balls coming. And though he has beenย giving up more fly balls, most have struggled to make itย deep into the outfield. This speaks to how effective his relativelyย fastball-light approachย is at keeping hitters off-balance, and is one area where being more wild has probably helped.
Workhorse
Sanchez entered the year in search of his first 200-inning season. And for the umpteenth time, his health is going to keep him from getting there. He just canโt stay healthy, and expecting him to start at this point in his career is foolery. Factor in how heโs generally a six-inning guy anyway due to his tendency to rack up high pitch counts, and playing it very safe is the best course of action here.
Overall
There are legit reasons to worry about Sanchez, namely his health betraying him once again and both his stuff and control being diminished. But the reality that heโs still been effective despite these things will do nicely for a silver lining. This Sanchez isnโt as good as the 2013 version, but heโs still good.
54. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
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Control
Fastballsย barely account for 50 percentย of Weaverโs pitches these days, and hittersย dropping their swing ratesย at his slow stuff says theyโre on to him. Without those swings, walks are happening. Weaver is still crafty, though. That shows up most in how heโs taken to putting more curveballs and changeupsย at the bottom of the zone, which helps open things up for him toย pitch up in the zoneย with his heat.
Whiffability
Weaverโs descending trust in his hard stuff is largely out of necessity. At anย average of 86-87 mph, he doesnโt have the heat to blow hitters away. But one way in which heโs adapted to that is to ditch his slider for two slower pitches in his curveball and changeup, which are still goodย swing-and-miss pitches. So though weโve seen the end of him as a strikeout artist, he can still get a whiff when he needs one.
Hittability
Weaverโs been a fly-ball pitcher his whole career, and that muchย hasnโt changed this year. Between that and his diminished stuff, home runs are going to happen. Particularly away from the Big A. But when you take into account how many fly balls he gets, the amount of home runs he surrenders seems petty. That wouldnโt be the case if he wasnโt as good at getting as manyย medium-depth fly ballsย as he does.
Workhorse
Injuries have done their part to limit Weaver in the last couple years, and now we can factor in diminished efficiency and increasedย hittability. Where he once was a seven-inning, 110-pitch guy, now heโs more like aย six-inning, 100-pitch guy. Add in how heโs 31-going-on-32, and itโs best if none of us expect him to return to being the workhorse that he used to be.
Overall
Weaver is on the decline, as he can no longer dictate at-bats and gets swings and misses like he used to. You have to hand it to him for remaining crafty, however, since he can still toy with the strike zone and keep hitters off-balance.
53. Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
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Control
Even in a year when Archer isย throwing more fastballs, avoiding walks is still not a strength. Not so coincidentally, fastball command is a pretty big issue. In part because of how he doesnโt always finish his delivery andย misses high and outside on his arm side, and in part because he struggles to get the ball down even when he is hitting the zone. Consider it an aspect where he needs some fine-tuning.
Whiffability
Fortunately, you donโt need pinpoint command when you have a fastball that goes 94-95 and a hard slider. Such things are the driving forces behind Archer being aย good swing-and-miss pitcher, with his slider beingย particularly lethal. Unlike his hard stuff, he has little trouble keeping it down, and its 85-86 velocity and sharp break do the rest. Between that and his heat, he has what he needs to miss bats.
Hittability
Archer was a pretty good ground-ball pitcher to begin with, but heโs teasing that he canย be even better. Heโsย thrown more sinkersย than four-seamersย in 2014, and thatโs not a bad idea given that his sinker is easily theย better ground-ball pitch. What his four-seamerย is still good for, however, isย getting pop-ups. He thus has two pitches that specialize at inducing weak contact, and he knows how to use them.
Workhorse
Archer can handle 100 pitches per start, but heโsย only likely to goย as far as six innings when he takes the ball. For all the weak contact he generates, thatโs the drawback of mixing walks and strikeouts. Then thereโs the matter of how hisย velocity can be inconsistentย once he hits the fifth inning. So though heโs been a big league starter for a good year and a half at this point, heโs still taking baby steps here.
Overall
The issues Archer has had with his command this year go to show that heโs still more of an electric (sterling, even) arm than anything else. But since he features an elite slider and stuff thatโs generally very hard to square up, thereโs a place for him among baseballโs top starters.
52. Ian Kennedy, San Diego Padres
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Control
Kennedyโs command has generally been more consistent than it was in 2013, and he owes that simply to getting back toย pounding the zoneย more consistently. Itโs also hard to take issue with his fastball command, as he lives away fromย both leftiesย and righties. He hasnโt been as sharp since the break, though, and that makes it hard to ignore how hisย releaseย pointย has changed as the year has gone along. After all sorts ofย release pointย strugglesย last year, thatโs an issue.
Whiffability
Itโs easy to trace the strikeout spike Kennedyโs enjoyed to hisย spike in velocity, but his four-seamerโsย whiffabilityย has barely budged. The good news is his changeup and curveballย haveย been missing more bats. Especially his changeup, which is persisting as one of theย best swing-and-miss changeupsย there is. At least heโll have that if he suffers a velocity loss in his age-30 season next year.
Hittability
Though heโs been getting a few more ground balls this year, Kennedyโs still primarilyย a fly-ball pitcher. Heโs in a good park for that, but he actuallyย hasnโt needed Petco Parkย to suppress his home run rate for him. Comparedย to 2013, well-hit fly ballsย havenโt been as frequent. That heโsย mixed in his curve moreย has helped, as itโs much better for slowing bats down than his changeup is.ย
Workhorse
Kennedyโs been more consistent in 2013, but heโs still only managed to persist as aย six-inning, 100-pitch guyย rather than get back to the seven-inning guy he was in 2011. That his command is still hit-or-miss hasnโt helped, and his general inability to keep ground balls coming means things can get hairy in a hurry. Unless he overhauls his pitching approach, being a six-inning guy is as good as itโs going to get.
Overall
Kennedy still has his faults, chief among them being that thereโs still no telling what kind of control heโs going to have from start to start. But to that end, thereโs no denying that heโs at least been more consistent than he was in 2013, and the Padres also seemed to have taught him how to pitch again. All told, the Kennedy reclamation project has largely been a success.
51. Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds
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Control
With his four-seamerย basically extinct and sinkers and cutters accounting forย roughly 70 percentย of his pitches, everythingย Leakeย throws moves. He gets by because heโs one of the best at playing with the edges. Heโll pitch in and out toย both leftiesย and righties, and is adept at hitting the outside corner. This allows him to buy some swings outside the zone, allowing him to get strikes every which way.
Whiffability
Leakeย is striking more guys out, but thatโs owed to his craftiness buying himย more called third strikes. Heโs not actually good at getting swinging strikes. He doesnโt have the velocity to blow anyone awayย at 90-91, and the only pitch he throwsย with legit whiffabilityย is his little-used slider. Throwing his slider more might buyย Leakeย more whiffs, but itโs hard to count on it knowing that whiffs arenโt his game.ย
Hittability
Leakeโsย game revolves more around inducing weak contact, a habit thatโs gotten a boost by a career-bestย ground-ball rateย this year. His sinker and cutter are bothย very strong ground-ball pitches. The catch, as always, is that itโs pretty easy to takeย Leakeย deep. Heโs capable of getting can-of-corn fly balls, but the well-hit onesย are also frequent.
Workhorse
Leakeย should finally top 200 innings this year, his reward for mixing good command with strikeouts and weak contact better than ever. But if we take it for granted that the strikeouts will be hard to repeat, itโs easy to see him go back to being what he was before: a guy who generally only had enough smoke and mirrorsย for six innings or so.ย
Overall
Leakeโsย stuff and general approach toward pitching doesnโt leave him with a large margin of error, and his troubles with home runs are basically a constant reminder of that. But he executes his game plan more often than not, which he owes to his criminally overlooked ability to spot the ball where he wants.
50. Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers
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Control
Lohseโsย reliance on his hard stuffย is going nowhere but down, andย his zone rateย is going with it. That doesnโt mean his command is necessarily getting worse, though. Heโs still spotting his hard stuff on the outside cornerย against leftiesย and rightiesย well, setting the latter up for rarely misplacedย sliders. Heโs also finding the zone withย more and more sliders. All told, Lohseย is still crafty.
Whiffability
Asย Lohseโsย reliance on his hard stuff has gone down, his reliance on his slider has gone up. Thatโs helping himย increase his swinging-strike rate, though only to a modest degree. His slider is pretty poorย at getting whiffsย relative to other sliders, so itโs doubtful that heโs going to get that much closer to being even an average source of swings and misses and strikeouts even if he continues keeping the sliders coming.
Hittability
A guy who throws as many sinkers and sliders asย Lohseย does should be a good ground-ball pitcher. But thatโs never been andย still isnโt the case. Heโs still mainly a fly-ball pitcher who relies on keeping hitters off-balance. Heโs good at it, but not great. When you look atย his fly-ball chart, you notice that deep flies are about as likely as shallow flies. Though he mostly avoids danger, itโs a high-wire act.
Workhorse
Efficiency has long been the name of the game forย Lohse, and it still is. Heโs averagedย over six innings on not even 100 pitchesย per start this year. But at 35-going-on-36, heโs at an age now where skepticism over his workload is warranted. And Iโd say even further skepticism is warranted in his case, as itโs a little concerning to see an older pitcher who had an elbow scare in 2013 throwing so many sliders.ย
Overall
There are plenty of gripes to raise withย Lohse, mainly having to do with how mediocre he is at getting swings and misses and how much he relies on ballpark dimensions and his outfield defense. But thereโs no knocking his command, and thereโs no ignoring how it makes mediocre stuff look less mediocre.
49. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
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Control
Youโd expect a guy who throwsย 70 percent fastballsย to be good at finding the zone, and Duffyย does do itย better than his modest walk rate indicates. We can also give him credit for the consistency with which he pitches to the corner on his glove sideย with his four-seamer. That means avoiding the outside cornerย against righties, however, and he does strayย over the middle of the zoneย more than he should.
Whiffability
For a guy who has such a good left arm, Duffy actually manages to disappoint in this department. Though he has good velocityย at 93-94, heย doesnโt blow hitters away. He also has a curveball, slider and changeup that are aboutย equally mediocre at missing bats. That he has a live arm means thereโs potential for more whiffs, but thatโs admittedly me going out on a limb.
Hittability
Duffy is nothing if not anย extreme fly-ball pitcher. Thatโs typically a recipe for a home run problem, but he's teased that he can be an exception to the rule. It helps that his four-seamerย isย pretty good at getting pop-ups, and in general hisย medium-depth fly ballsย far outweigh the deep fly balls he gives up. The key ingredient is the good rising action he gets on his four-seamer, which isย among the best there is.
Workhorse
Duffyโs a relatively inexperienced starter whoโs not that far removed from Tommy John surgery, and hereโs where it shows. His velocity is at its bestย early in games, and on the whole heโs been good for onlyย six innings and 96 pitchesย when heโs taken the ball. As such, what heโs done this year is only a good first step to what will hopefully be a bigger workload in 2015.
Overall
The most disappointing thing about Duffy is his merely modest ability to miss bats, but heโs done enough to establish himself as the kind of starter who can succeed even without whiffs. It will be all about pounding the strike zone and getting hitters to send the ball harmlessly skyward.
48. Alex Wood, Atlanta Braves
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Control
Woodโs herky-jerky, funky-rificย should make it tough for him to find the strike zone, but heโs actuallyย pretty good at it. And for the most part, heโs also pretty good atย keeping his stuff down. What makes that โfor the most partโ necessary is that he has a tendency to leave his fastball in theย middle of the zone, which is not where you want to be when your fastballย only pushes 90.
Whiffability
Woodโs best talent in this department is how well he hides the ball and how he brings it from a unique arm slot, making it tough for hitters to pick him up. Itโs largely due to his deception that heโs able to pick up swings and missesย at a solid rate. But heโs notย without legit weapons, as his changeup is decent at getting whiffs and his curveball is better than decent at getting whiffs.
Hittability
Wood's surprisingly decent at getting ground ballsย for a guy who relies so heavily on his four-seamer, which itself is pretty good at racking 'em up. That's unusual, but that it happened in 2013 too means it's not necessarily a fluke. He's otherwise also good at keeping hitters off-balance, with one of his talents being his ability to get right-handed batters to hitย harmless fly ballsย to center and right field.
Workhorse
For a guy whoโs gone back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen in the last two years, Wood is pretty good atย holding his velocityย in games. Heโs also drastically improved on last yearโs starting performance, which saw him average justย 5.1 innings and 89 pitchesย per game. Heโs shown he can be a six-inning, 100-pitch guy, which is a good first step to being a reliable workhorse.
Overall
Itโs hard to shake the feeling that Wood is a gimmick pitcher, but thereโs plenty to like about how he pitches. Heโs not great at spotting the ball, missing bats or limiting hard contact, but being reasonably good at all three things allow him to be an effective all-around hurler.
47. John Lackey, St. Louis Cardinals
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Control
Lackeyโs among the leagueโs most fastball-heavy starters, and theyโreย virtually all four-seamers. So it makes sense that hisย zone rate has skyrocketed, but itโs to his credit that merely getting in the zone isnโt his style. Againstย both leftiesย and righties, he can hit the outside edge about as consistently as any other starter. If youโre going to be a fastball-throwing machine who lives in the zone, thatโs the way to go.
Whiffability
Going with a more fastball-heavy approachย hasnโt made it any easierย for Lackey to get swinging strikes, as hisย fastball whiffability has droppedย while hisย average velocityย has stayed right around 92. And be warned: hisย fastball velocity has dropped offย from where it was at the start of the year. If thatโs the 35-year-old Lackey showing his age, getting whiffs could soon become more difficult.
Hittability
Lackey doesnโt use his sinker much, so itโs a good thing that his ability to put his four-seamerย on the edges helps make it aย solid ground-ball pitch. But even with that, heโs only about an average ground-ball pitcher, and this year has seen himย continue to struggle with home runsย while also allowing more line drives. If his velocity continues to dive, those problems will be tougher to correct.
Workhorse
Pitching deep into games hasnโt been a problem for Lackey, as heโs once again been goodย for over six innings and 100 pitches. But if the various concerns weโve addressed come to fruition, itโs going to be harder to Lackey to go deep into games consistently. If we also factor in his age, counting on him to keep carrying a major workload doesnโt come off as a great idea.
Overall
Lackeyโs fastball command is quietly among the leagueโs better tools, as he could probably spot the ball on the outside edge in his sleep. But between his declining velocity, whiffs and soft contact highlight how the cracks are beginning to show. Looking ahead, those cracks are likely to be even more apparent.
46. Jason Vargas, Kansas City Royals
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Control
Vargasโ already-changeup-heavy approach has gottenย even more soย in 2014, and heโs making sure that many of the extra changeupsย find the zone. Thatโs allowing him to beย more aggressive in the zoneย with his hard stuff, and heโs also good at pitching toย both sides of the plate. Especiallyย against right-handers. So though he doesnโt exactlyย live in the zone, he knows what heโs doing.
Whiffability
Vargasโs bread-and-butter changeup is up thereย among the best in the leagueย at getting swings and misses, but itโs not the kind of changeup that has the power to make his hard stuff easier to swing through. He onlyย throws 87-88, and his four-seamer is getting easier to hitย every year. That trend is likely to hold, especially if his fastball velocity drops below the 87 threshold in 2015.
Hittability
Though Vargas has also added a sinker while increasing his use of his changeup, he isnโt getting any better atย inducing ground balls.ย Neither of those two pitchesย is a great ground-ball pitch, so he must persist as a fly-ball pitcher. This is fortunately a trick heโs pretty good at, as his ability to mix and match while hitting his spots allows for plenty ofย shallow fly ballsย to offset the deep ones.
Workhorse
Vargasโ health has been a bother in the last two seasons, but this season has seen him return to beingย a good betย to go deep into games. Thatโs what happens when you can be efficient with your pitches, and his ability to manipulate helps keep the disaster starts at a minimum. Whether he can be much more than a 200-inning pitcher is a question, though, especially if his health keeps betraying him.
Overall
Vargas has a place among the least-discussed pitchers in the league, and itโs hard to imagine that changing as long as his pitching style continues to be so unspectacular. Itโs definitely effective, though, as good command and an ability to change speeds allow him to succeed as a fly ball pitcher.
45. Brandon McCarthy, New York Yankees
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Control
McCarthyโs one of the best in the majors at hitting his spots, especially with his sinker/cutter combination. Heโs very good at putting his sinkerย at the knees, and his cutterย off the edge of the zoneย to his glove side. To boot, hisย revival of his four-seamerย has been worth his while, as itโs come in handy when he needs strikes out on the outer thirdย against leftiesย and outside cornerย against righties.ย
Whiffability
McCarthy has enjoyed a boost in both strikeoutsย and swinging strikes, mainly because his stuff has simply been nastier. Heโsย gained velocity on all his pitches, including about two miles per hour on his fastball. The sustainability of this is a good question, however. After all, this velocity is coming out of nowhere in what is McCarthyโs age-30 season.
Hittability
McCarthy is working on aย career-best ground ball rate, a product of how his sinker, cutter and curveball canย all get ground balls. He can be taken deep, though. And while that problem was never as bad as it looked in Arizona, it hasnโt been solved as much as it seems since he arrived in New York. He hasnโt quitย surrendering long flies. The key to beating him is still finding a way to get underneath his stuff.
Workhorse
That McCarthy set a new personal best with his 26thย start says a lot about how much trouble heโs had staying healthy. And knowing his track record, one healthy season shouldnโt be used as an excuse heโs going to stay healthy moving forward. Still, heโll eat his share of innings when he can pitch. Even on days when heโs hittable, heโs efficient enough to make itย through six innings and 100 pitches.
Overall
Itโs easy to buy into McCarthyโs Yankees rebirth as a fluke, but he was never as rotten as his 5.01 ERA in Arizona said he was. Though itโs far from impossible to make good contact against him, his command is among the best there is and he further helps himself by mainly keeping the ball on the ground.
44. Doug Fister, Washington Nationals
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Control
Even byย his standards,ย Fisterย is toying with an outstanding walk rate. That would seem to be related to his new NL surroundings, as heโs beenย more aggressive attacking the zone. The catch is that his walk rate is also built contact, and he makes it easy by pitchingย more up in the zoneย than mostย sinkerballers. Lower would be better, but maybe asking a lot for 6โ8โ pitcher with an over-the-top motion.
Whiffability
Fisterย doesnโt do strikeouts, and this year heโsย not even doing swinging strikes. Himย basically ditching his curveballย has something to do with that. The onlyย off-speedย pitch he throws regularly now is his splitter, which, to put it lightly, just isnโt very good atย getting swings and misses. Fisterโsย velocity isย down across the board. With him now over 30, thatโs likely not getting fixed.
Hittability
Fisterย hasย gone full sinkerballerย this year, and itโs stillย getting ground ballsย over 50 percent of the time itโs in play. Hisย overall ground-ball rateย has taken a turn for the worse, however. And though he gets plenty of shallow fly balls, heโsย given up his share of long ones,ย too. When you have lesser velocity, pitch in the middle of the zone and donโt have a curveball to keep guys honest, this is what you risk.ย
Workhorse
Thatย Fisterย messes around with neither strikeouts nor walks makes it easy for him to pitch deep into games with a low pitch count. Thatโs been the case this year, asย heโs averagingย about six and a half innings on only 99 pitches. But because this is the second year out of three heโs had injury problems and a pitcherโs health doesnโt tend to stabilize in his 30s, we have to be at least a little cautious.
Overall
The results have definitely been there forย Fister, and thereโs no ignoring how he has some of the best command and one of the best sinkers youโre going to find. But his inability to miss bats is a complication here, and the reality that good contact hasnโt exactly been infrequent is another. Itโs hard to escape the notion thatย Fisterโsย future might not be as bright as his present.
43. Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals
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Control
We have a limited sample ofย Wachaย starts to go off of, but what weโve seen is him downrightย assault the strike zone. You also have to admire how frequently he spotted his fastball up and awayย against lefties, thereby keeping it out of their wheelhouse. He was also pretty good at working awayย from righties. That leaves just one catch: He strayed over the middle of the zone a bit too often against both.ย
Whiffability
Wachaโsย changeup was a notable part of his rise to stardom, but that same changeupย hasnโt missed batsย at the same rate in 2014. The silver lining is that the increasedย whiffabilityย of his four-seamerย goes to show that his fastball and changeup are still a deadly combination. The only worry one has is if hisย 92-93 velocityย might come down after his shoulder troubles this year.
Hittability
Wachaโsย not great atย getting ground balls. His changeupย can induce them, but it plays too much of a second fiddle to his four-seamer. But itย does make his four-seamerย hard to square up, as it easily collects bothย pop-ups and shallow fly balls. But if we once again assume his velocity may be coming down, itโs fair to expect things to not be that easy in the future.
Workhorse
Wachaย has everything he needs to be an efficient pitcher, but the Cardinals have limited him toย merely six-inning dutyย on fewer than 95 pitches in his first full season. And that wasย beforeย his shoulder acted up and sidelined him back in June. So looking ahead to 2015, it will basically be back to square one for Wacha.
Overall
Itโs easy to focus on howย Wachaโsย shoulder season derailed his 2014 season, and that indeed shouldnโt be ignored. But he did look pretty good in his return to action September 4โBernie Miklasz of theย St. Louis Post-Dispatch will tell you about itโand overall he's continued to show how big a talent he is, displaying good command and strong abilities to miss bats and limit hard contact.
42. Jacob DeGrom, New York Mets
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Control
Thoughย deGromย hasnโt been great at limiting walks or atย hitting the zone, his command hasnโt actually been that bad and has the potential to actually be quite good. Heโs shown that he can target the outside edgeย against leftiesย and to both corners of the zoneย against righties. Heโs been inconsistent at applying this approach, but also just consistent enough to show that heโs onto something.
Whiffability
Swinging strikes have been a main ingredient inย deGromโsย success. Heโsย gotten a lot of them, which is what happens when virtuallyย everything you throwย can miss bats. That includes hisย 93-94 four-seamer, which has beenย among the hardest four-seamers to hitย this year. So even if we assume that increased familiarity will knockย deGromย down a peg or two, his stuff is definitely legit.ย
Hittability
Making contact againstย deGromย isnโt easy, but making hard contact is a different story. Heโs operated with aย high line drive rate, and all his pitchesย have played a partย in that. The bright side that thatย deGromย is more in his element when heโs inducing fly balls, getting plentyย of medium-depth fly ballsย to balance out the long ones. So though heโs far from unhittable, he at least has one tangible talent.
Workhorse
He may already be 26, butย deGromย arrived in the majors with less thanย 325 minor league innings. His arm really hasnโt been built up that much, which could be what led to his August shoulder injury. Not that itโs all bad, asย deGromย hasย averaged 102 pitches per startย and held his velocity reasonably well. Heโll still be looking to prove himself as a workhorse come 2015, but heโs off to a decent start.
Overall
For all thatโs gone wrong for the Mets in 2014,ย deGrom's one thing that has gone very right. Heโs arrived in the majors and shown both plus stuff and good command that has potential to be even better.ย Theย thought of him and Matt Harvey in the same rotation is a scary one for NL East foes.
41. Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
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Control
Baileyโs walk rate doesn't match those of his 2012 and 2013 seasons, but he was actuallyย more active in the zoneย despiteย throwing fewer heaters. But thatโs only worth so much knowing that his command wasnโt as sharp, as he was prone to missย across the middleย with his heat and also threwย more hittable sliders. All around, he put his command in not-bad-but-not-good-either territory.
Whiffability
Also taking a step toward average wasย Baileyโs strikeout rate, but I wouldnโt be quick to read into that. He had little troubleย getting swinging strikes, andย his fastball velocityย was still in the 94-95 range. And though his slider was actually mediocre at getting whiffs, his curveball and splitter areย both stupendous. And with him still being just 28, his best stuff shouldnโt be in too much danger.
Hittability
Baileyโs slider isnโt great at whiffs, but it works well as a stand-in for a sinker. Itย got ground ballsย almost 60 percent of the time it was put in play, and helped his overall ground ball rateย climb higher than ever. However, itโs not surprising to see his iffy fastball command jacked upย the line drive rateย on his four-seamer, and the irony of a guy named Homer being prone to homersย still applies.ย
Workhorse
Because Bailey struggled with command and hard-hit balls, itโs not surprising that his workload consistency took a step back. Even with good health, him topping his 2012 and 2013 innings totals was a long shot. And we say โwas,โ of course, because of the injury that ended his season. That it's not a UCL injury is a relief, but surgery to repair his flexor mass tendonย might complicate things going forward.
Overall
Baileyโs 2014 season looks a heck of a lot better if you take a bad April out of the equation, and itโs no wonder knowing that he didn't lose his swing-and-miss stuff while further enhancing his ability to keep the ball on the ground. But it is hard to ignore that heโs at times been more of a thrower than a pitcher, and his arm injury does complicate things a bit.
40. Ervin Santana, Atlanta Braves
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Control
Going with less of aย fastball-heavy approachย has made Santana prone toย missing the zoneย and dependent on hitters going fishing. The process generally works because of how consistent he is puttingย his slider and changeupย at and just below the knees. His actual fastball command leaves something to be desired, though, as he works too much in the middle againstย both leftiesย and righties.
Whiffability
Santana has taken last yearโs elevated swinging-strike rate andย elevated it even more. Moving to the NL has helped, but the emergence of his changeup has too. Heโs thrown itย more than ever, and itโs worked well asย a swing-and-miss pitchย alongside his slider. With his velocity likely not long for theย 92-93 rangeย with his 32ndย birthday due up, he picked a good time to become less reliant on his slider.ย
Hittability
Santana put himself on a path to become more of aย sinkerballerย in 2013, but hasnโt kept that up in 2014. His ground ball rate hasnโt plummeted as a resultโhis changeupย has had a hand in that tooโbut his ability to limit hard contact hasnโt gotten any better either. Theย line drive ratesย on Santanaโs four-seamerย and slider are rising, and itโs easier toย drive fly ballsย off him than his home run rate suggests.
Workhorse
Itโs been a ho-hum season for Santana in this department, as heโs regularly given the Bravesย six-plus inningsย when heโs taken the ball. But heโs also at a weird sort of crossroads. Beyond next year being his age-32 season, becoming a pitcher whoโs dependent on getting whiffs and the ball staying in the ballpark likely isnโt going to make eating innings any easier.ย
Overall
Even despite the gripes that can be aired about Santanaโs general lack of pinpoint command and how he seems reluctant to become a full-time ground ball pitcher, he hardly has bad command and heโs better at limiting hard contact than he used to be. Add in how much better heโs gotten at missing bats, and you have a pretty good pitcher.
39. Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins*
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ย *Will return from May, 2014 Tommy John operation in 2015.
Control
Before Tommy John happened, Fernandez was working onย a much-improved 2.26 BB/9. Himย getting more swingsย outside the zone helped, but so did simplified fastball command. He took toย challenging hitters up in the zone, a fine idea when you canย throw 95-96. Though thereโs bound to be some rust when hereturns in 2015โNewsday's Marc Carig has a piece on why command tends to come back slowly after Tommy Johnโit's a bright side that the rust won't be on command that was sloppy to begin with.
Whiffability
Fernandez ended 2014 with a 12.19 K/9 and a 14.2 swinging-strike rate. Thatโs what you can do when you have aย wood-resistant curveballย and a blistering fastball. But while he should still have these things when he returns, his likely lesser command means weโre probably going to see the fastball more than the curveball. That will help suppress what had been extreme whiffability.
Hittability
Assuming we do see Fernandez resort to his fastball more in 2015, that means weโre also likely to see fewer ground balls. It wasย mainly his curveball and changeupย that contributed to his 48.8 ground ball rate, while his four-seamerย tended to be hit in the air. But though Fernandezโs heater can be taken for a ride, the silver lining is that it more frequently gotย pop-ups and shallow fliesย earlier this season.
Workhorse
Fernandez was having an easier time working deep into games early in 2014 than he was in 2013, upping both hisย average innings per start and average pitches per start. But the big question here is when heโs going to be able to return in 2015, with the best hope being sometime in late June or early July. If so, heโs only going to be available for half the season.
Overall
Even if we assume a good recovery from Tommy John, weโre not going to see Fernandez on a major league mound again until 2015 is well underway. And if he does come back, heโs probably not going to be the same pitcher he was early in 2014. But as long as Tommy John doesnโt rob him of his glorious fastball-curveball combination, heโll still have the goods to be one of baseballโs best pitchers.
38. Scott Kazmir, Oakland A's
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Control
Kazmirโsย reputation as a control nightmare feels like ancient history. Limiting walks has become a strength, and heโs earned it byย pounding the strike zoneย more often than the average starter. To that end, a new trick heโs trying out is anย increased number of secondary pitchesย in the zone. What he needs to work on is fastball commandย against righties, as he too often finds himself working down the middle.
Whiffability
One thing that hasnโt kept up from 2013 isย Kazmirโsย strikeout rate. His fastball velocity hasnโt helped, as heโsย lost over a mile per hourย and has seen hisย fastball whiff ratesย suffer. Heading forward, the now 30-year-old lefty will need hisย secondariesย to keep hisย still-strong whiff rateย up. Because he trusts thoseย secondariesโparticularly his changeup and sliderโmore these days, maybe thatโs not asking a lot.
Hittability
Withย Kazmirย going to hisย four-seamer less and less, itโs no wonder heโs become aย pretty good ground ball pitcher. There is a major caveat here, though, and thatโs that hisย ground ball rate comes with aย pretty major platoon split. He doesnโt get righties to hit the ball on the ground as well as he can with lefties, and righties also havenโt had much troubleย taking him for a ride.
Workhorse
Itโs been a long time sinceย Kazmirย has had to pitch as many innings heโs had to this season. Thatโs good news because it means heโs been able to stave off injury, and hisย month-to-month velocity chartย looks fine. However, heโsย only been about a six-inning guy, and he also hasnโt averaged 100 pitches per start. Given how this fits with his track record, itโs best not to expect too much from him.
Overall
Though he comes with platoon, swing-and-miss and workload question marks, the reclamation of Scottย Kazmirย can safely be deemed a success. Largely through command better than any he ever had when he was younger, heโs turned himself into more of a pitcher than he ever was when he was younger.
37. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Control
Good command was a primary staple ofย Ryuโsย excellent rookie season, and itโs only gotten better this year. Beyondย simply hitting the zone more often, heโs gotten better at playing with the outside cornerย against leftiesย and both sides of the plateย against righties. Add in how heโs put more sliders, curveballs and changeupsย at the knees, and you get a lot to like.
Whiffability
With his command buying him more strikes, itโs no wonder strikeouts have come more frequently forย Ryuย in 2014. On the whole, though, his stuffย isnโt much harder to hitย than it was in 2013. At anย average of 90-91, he doesnโt have the velocity to blow hitters away, andย none of his three secondary pitchesย are good enough to miss bats. He can get enough whiffs to save par, but no better than that.
Hittability
Ryuโsย ability to locate and mix his pitches make him a tough guy to hit. That much is reflected in his solidย ground ball rate, and youโll see him get his share of off-balance swings throughout the course of an outing. But hitters have generally had an easier time making good contact this year than they did in 2013. Line drives have been easier for them to come by, andย long fly ballsย are not an impossible task.
Workhorse
After he averaged easilyย over six innings and 100 pitches per startย in 2013,ย Ryuโsย reputation as a workhorse has taken a step back. Beyond his increasedย hittabilityย meaning some short outings, heโs landed on the DL twice. And though heโs still only 27, such issues serve as a reminder that heโs not a physical specimen and that he arrived in the states with plenty of miles already on his body.ย
Overall
Though injuries have done their part to wreckย Ryuโsย sophomore season, itโs been largely a success otherwise. What was already really good command of his pitches has gotten better, and heโs still mixed strongโif less than greatโabilities to miss bats and limit hard contact.
36. Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals
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Control
Given that roughly 80 percent of Lynnโs pitches are fastballs, itโs odd that heโs not better at avoiding walks orย pounding the zone. But this makes his fastball command look worse than it is. Heโs pretty consistent about flirting with the outside corner against lefties, and he can flirt with both the inside and outside edges against righties. That he can do this makes his walks easy to forgive.
Whiffability
One thing thatโs keeping Lynnโs fastball-heavy approach relevant is that his four-seamerย is better at getting whiffs than hisย 92-93 velocityย would indicate. He gets whiffs on basically a quarter of the swings taken at his four-seamer, making itย one of the whiffiest four-seamersย out there. He doesnโt have much else besides that, though, so itโs hard to imagine him reversing hisย declining strikeout habit.
Hittability
Lynn has kicked up hisย use of his sinker, and his reward has beenย more ground balls. And there may be more where those came from. His sinker is anย outstanding ground ball pitch, and heโs more comfortableย using it nowย than he was at the beginning of the year. Lynnโs four-seamer, meanwhile, isย helping to driveย his solid pop-up rate and has also made sure fly ballsย donโt go very far.
Workhorse
Lynnโs tendency to mess with walks doesnโt help keep his pitch counts low. But heโs only making progress as a workhorse,ย averaging more pitches per startย every year. After hitting 200 innings for the first time in 2013, he now looks like a guy who should have 200 innings in him every year.
Overall
It hasnโt been an easy year for the Cardinals rotation, but Lynnโs emergence has been a quiet bright spot. He can still make things interesting with his command, but heโs gotten to a point where he can manipulate contact well while still getting his share of whiffs.
35. Sonny Gray, Oakland A's
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Control
Gray has mixed up his pitches more than he did in his big league cameo in 2013, and thatโs made it harder for him toย find the zone. Heโs been better at throwing strikes than his modest walk rate indicates, however. And heโs thrown largely good strikes, keeping his fastball lowย against leftiesย and righties. Though I wouldnโt call his command performance this year a great one, itโs definitely one to build off of.ย
Whiffability
Gray has basically been average at getting both strikeouts and swinging strikes. Though he canย sit 93-94ย hittersย havenโt been swinging throughย his four-seamer. Since his changeup has also been modest at getting whiffs, that leaves his curveball as clearly his best whiff pitch. And while itโs good, itโsย not elite. As such, what weโve seen from Gray in this department is likely what weโre going to get.
Hittability
While Gray is just OK at missing bats, heโs very good at limiting hard contact. He has aย high ground ball rateย because basicallyย everything he throwsย can induce ground balls, with his ability to keep his pitches low being a big reason why. Itโs also a good look that he gets pop-ups as frequently as he gives up home runs, which makes it easier to forgive howย fly balls off himย do tend to travel.
Workhorse
For a guy listed at just 5โ11โ and 195 pounds, Gray has held up well. Heโs averagedย six and a half innings and 100 pitchesย per start, and the low for his velocity happened at theย beginning of the year. His velocity within gamesย has been shaky, however, and his non-elite command can lead to high pitch counts. Looking ahead, itโs best if we donโt mark him down as a good bet to blow away the 200-inning mark.
Overall
Gray hasnโt exactly been overpowering in his first full season, and itโs not the best sign that his command has been shaky as heโs tried to be more than just a fastball-curveball guy. But heโs also a case of how effective keeping the ball low and getting ground balls can be, and his assorted shortcomings have certainly done little to diminish his reputation as one of the gameโs bright young pitchers.
34. Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays
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Control
Stroman has gone heavy on the hard stuff since he became a starter, with four-seamers, sinkers and cutters accounting forย roughly 70 percentย of his pitches. Thatโs helped himย find the zone consistently. Thereโs potential in his ability to locate the ball, too, as heโs shown he can keep his heat lowย against leftiesย and on the outside cornerย against righties. All told, a good first step for the 23-year-old.
Whiffability
Stroman has been inconsistent getting whiffs since he became a starter. Heโs had to deal with none of his pitches being particularly greatย at getting whiffs.ย But since his slider, curveball and changeup can be nasty when theyโre working, and becauseย his 93-94 velocityย gives him heat that can blow hitters away, itโs a safe bet we havenโt seen Stromanโs best yet here either.
Hittability
Stromanโs beenย good at getting ground ballsย since he became a starter, but the potential is there for him to be great. His cutter is already aย terrific ground ball pitch, and heโs worked in his sinker more as theย year has moved along. Heโs also shown he can specialize inย getting medium-depth fly balls. All together, thereโs enough here for high hopes for 2015.
Workhorse
Stroman doesnโt have a classic pitcherโs build at 5โ9โ and 185 pounds. That and the fact that heย hasnโt worked deep into gamesย or held his velocity especially well means expectations for his workload potential shouldnโt be too high. But if he does indeed make good on his command andย hittabilityย potential, he should at least be more than a five-inning guyย in 2015.
Overall
It would be overstating things to say that Stroman has put it all together as a starter, and goodness knows he went through something of a reality check in August. What heโs shown has been largely positive, however. Looking ahead, heโs a guy who should be able to command the ball well while picking up his share of whiffs and keeping hard contact to a minimum.
33. Nathan Eovaldi, Miami Marlins
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Control
You wouldnโt expect a 24-year-old with aย 95-96 fastballย to be a command specialist, butย Eovaldiย is an exception. He lives in the zoneย more than anyoneย not named Phil Hughes. He mostly throws good strikes with his heat, too, staying mainly low and awayย against leftiesย and righties. Heโs not at a point where he can pound the corners consistently. But at the rate heโs going, itโs a good bet he soon will be.ย
Whiffability
Unfortunately,ย Eovaldiย plays against type here too. Heโs below average both at getting strikeouts and swinging strikes, as neither his hard four-seamerย nor his slider are particularly greatย swing-and-miss pitches. Since that has more to do with insistence on living in the zone than the actual quality of his stuff, however, we can allow ourselves some hope thatย Eovaldiย has room to grow here.
Hittability
Though he lives at the bottom of the zone with it,ย Eovaldiโsย bread-and-butter four-seamerย isnโt great atย getting ground balls. As such, itโs no surprise that the majority of balls hit off him areย line drives and fly balls, making him prone to hard contact. The silver lining is thatย how leftiesย and rightiesย have trouble pulling fly balls off him. Given how hard he throws, thatโs more than likely a sustainable skill.
Workhorse
Eovaldiย has blown past his previous career high of 119.1 innings, and heโs done it while averaging aroundย six innings and 100 pitches per start. His efficiency has been a factor, and heโs further helped himself by retaining his velocity wellย from inning to inning. As long as he can keep doing that, he should be able to continue building his reputation as a workhorse in 2015.
Overall
Results havenโt been easy forย Eovaldiย to come by as the season has moved along, but heโs done enough to establish himself as a potential star in the making. For as easy as it is to notice his fastball velocity, his command is just as impressive and the best is likely still to come regarding hisย whiffability.
32. Tim Hudson, San Francisco Giants
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Control
Itโs not by accident that Hudson is flirting with aย career-best walk rate. Heโsย pounded the zone more frequently, and heโs been solid at getting hitters to chase. That heโs been ahead a lot has helped, but hisย extreme presenceย at the bottom of the zone has required hitters to protect it. He can miss upย against lefties, though, and itโs also hard to ignore that he hasnโt been as sharp since the All-Star break.
Whiffability
This really isnโt Hudsonโs game, as this wonโt be his first year with a strikeout rate well below par. His M.O. is pitching to contact and only pick up whiffs when he needs them. In fairness, heโs not bad at doing that thanks to his cutter and splitter, which areย halfway-decent whiff pitches. If either of those pitches wasnโt aย distant second fiddleย to his sinker, he might actually be a good strikeout artist.
Hittability
Maybe weโll just start calling ground balls โHudsonsโ one day. Heโs been posting ground ball rates in the mid-to-high 50s his whole career, and is once again in 2014. Thatโs his sinker at work, as itโs good for ground balls on 60-70 percent of balls it puts in play. The catch is that all Hudsonโs pitches have gotten easier to hit for line drives. Because that trend started in 2013, itโs probably not quitting.
Workhorse
Hudsonโs efficiencyย generally allows himย to breeze through six innings on easily less than 100 pitches, and heโs perfectly capable of going much further and still finishing with under 100 pitches. Even still,ย itโs probably not a good idea to expect too much out of a 39-year-old who last pitched 200 innings in 2011 going forward.
Overall
Watching Hudson pitch can be a joy, as it typically means watching a guy who hits the bottom of the strike zone pitch after pitch while racking up a ton of ground balls. Having such a subpar strikeout ability does leave him with a smaller margin for error, however, and there is the wonder of how much longer he can keep this up at his age.
31. Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals
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Control
Roark teased a strong ability to hit the zone in 2013, and going for an even moreย hard-heavy approachย has helped that abilityย get even stronger. And for the most part, he does a good job of keeping his heat low. But thatโs more true of his battlesย against leftiesย than his battlesย against righties, who have gotten to see their share of meatballs. Roarkโs control is good, but thereโs room for improvement.
Whiffability
Because he reliesย primarily on his sinkerย and onlyย throws 91-92, Roarkโs oft-used heat isnโt for missing bats. So as long as he insists on being a fastball-heavy pitcher, heโs not likely to be a good strikeout artist. Heโs not bad at getting swinging-strikes when he needs them, however, and thatโs owed to how his curveball, slider and changeup areย solid swing-and-miss pitches.ย
Hittability
With so many sinkers leaving his hand, youโd expect Roark to be a good ground ball pitcher. But heโs actually just OK atย getting ground balls, in part because his sinker is aย mediocre ground ball pitch. What allows Roark to survive is his ability to mix in his curve, slider and change about equally. That helps keeps hitters off-balance, which shows most in the frequency at which he getsย catchable fly balls.ย
Workhorse
In limiting both walks and strikeouts while keeping hard contact relatively infrequent, Roark is pretty good at keeping his pitch counts low. Thatโs how heโs been able to averageย over six innings per startย on less than 100 pitches. And though heโs already 27, his big league career is really just getting started. It would not be a surprise if he soon became the quietly reliable 200-inning type.
Overall
Itโs easy to overlook Roark given that heโs come out of nowhere and is rubbing shoulders with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Dougย Fisterย andย Gioย Gonzalez, but he looks like a legit big league pitcher. Though heโs not overpowering, his abilities to command the ball and keep hitters off-balance ensure heโs successful.ย
30. Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels
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Control
Richardsโ 2014 season came to an early end with himย holding a 2.72 BB/9, putting him right at theย league average for starters. He was no better than the average starter atย hitting the zone, in part because ofย his wildnessย both outside and inside the zone with his fastball. He may not switch things up until he starts leaking velocity, and those days shouldnโt come for a while yet.
Whiffability
Given that Richards satย in the 96-97 rangeย with his heat, itโs somewhat disappointing that he only compiled an 8.75 K/9 and a 10.7ย swinging-strike rate. That was largely a function of how Richardsโ heat was actuallyย easier to hitย than youโd expect. The (very) bright side is Richardsโ slider, which he established as one ofย baseballโs best slidersย this year. As long as he at least has that, he'll miss bats.
Hittability
This is where Richards really shined. He finished 2014 with aย ground ball rate over 50 percent, largely thanks to aย sinker that got ground ballsย more than 60 percent of the time it was in play. He also wasnโt easy to hit even outside of the ground balls, as he got plenty of pop-ups and didnโt have to deal with manyย well-hit fly balls. Basically, stuff designed to jam hitters did just that. Andย how.ย
Workhorse
If you want the bright side, itโs that Richardsย finished his season averagingย 6.5 innings on 101 pitches. The not-so-bright side is that his velocityย peaked early in games, and we also have to consider how hisย devastating knee injuryย is going to impact his workload in 2015. Heโll need six to nine months to recover, so we may not see him until midway through 2015. As such, this score is us playing it safe.
Overall
Though he did it with iffy command and fewer strikeouts than youโd expect, the way in which Richards simply overpowered hitters in 2014 made him one of the leagueโs elite starting pitchers. Itโs a shame that his knee injury is going to keep us from seeing him not only the rest of this year, but potentially part of next year as well.ย
29. Jeff Samardzija, Oakland A's
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Control
Walks have goneย from a weakness to a strengthย forย Samardzija, in part because aย more hard-heavy approachย has allowed him toย find the zoneย more consistently. His fastball command within the zone is still iffy, though, as heโsย prone to missing down the middleย and isnโt as good at locating his sinkerย against rightiesย as he isย against lefties. This is the next improvement heโll have to make.
Whiffability
Samardzija is getting the same amount of swinging strikes in 2014 that he did in 2013, and it's once again been his slider and splitter doing the bulk of the work. Both are quite good at missing bats. But if there's a reason to be skeptical, it's in how Samardzija is now throwing his sinker more than his four-seamer and is slowly phasing out his splitter. If he keeps that up, whiffs won't be as easy to come by.
Hittability
While he's still known primarily for whiffs,ย Samardzijaโsย ground ball rate hasย been trending upward. That can be linked to the increased trust he's put in his sinker, as itโs easily hisย best ground ball pitch. However, his stuff has gotten easy toย hit for line drives, and heโs not immune toย well-hit fly balls. As such, his ground ball tendency comes with some catches.
Workhorse
Samardzijaย threw his name into the top workhorse discussion when he crossed 200 innings in 2013, and this year has seen him keep it up byย being good for easily betterย than six innings on 100 pitches per start. That heโs becoming more efficient bodes well going forward, and the reality that heโs still relatively new to starting helps alleviate the concern that this is his final year on the good side of 30.
Overall
The best thingย Samardzijaย has going for him is his steady transformation into a pitcher whoโs going to get by on good control and a solid mix of whiffs and ground balls, and he has a much fresher arm than most guys do at his age. His command still needs fine-tuning, however, and heโs really not as downright overpowering as he was in his first two years as a starter.ย
28. James Shields, Kansas City Royals
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Control
To get hisย super-low walk rate, all Shields has had to do is throwย more fastballs and cuttersย andย more pitches in the strike zone. Heโs also putย more hard pitches at the bottom of the zone, which is saying something in his case. The catch is that heโs also put more heatersย across the middle of the zoneย than ever, so this hasnโtย quiteย been a career year for his control from that perspective.ย
Whiffability
After dipping in 2013, Shieldsโ strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate are nowย trending downward. He surprisinglyย isnโtย losing velocityโheโs still in theย 92-93 rangeโbut his changeup isnโt the weapon it used to be. Heโsย not using it as much, and hittersย arenโt missing it as much. The best swing-and-miss pitch he has now is his curveball, and he seems hesitant to use it as anything other than a show-me pitch.
Hittability
Shieldsโย ground ball rate is back up, as youโd expect from a guy whoโs putting so many pitches at the knees while also increasing his trust in his cutter. But hitters are also having an easier timeย hitting his four-seamer on a line, and the return of hisย old home run problemย should probably actually be worse knowing how manyย long fly ballsย heโs given up. This is probably where his decreased trust in his changeup is hurting the most, as heโs not having as easy a time keeping hitters off-balance.
Workhorse
Shields embodies the term โworkhorseโ as much as any other pitcher, and his assorted struggles this year havenโt stood in his way of being a lock for close to seven innings and 110 pitches. But he actually doesnโt hold his velocity wellย from inning to inning, and you canโt help but be at least a little concerned about how much longer Shields can keep this up now that heโll be 33 next year.ย
Overall
Shieldsโ superior command is the base for his two primary strengths: limiting walks and attracting ground balls by spotting the ball low in the zone. But the decline of his changeup has made him easier to hit, both from a contact standpoint and (seemingly) from a good contact standpoint. Then thereโs the obligatory question: How much longer can Shields keep handling such immense workloads?
27. Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers
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Control
It should be granted that one thing thatโs helpingย Porcelloย keep his walk rate down is an increased amount of contact, but heโs alsoย hitting the zone more oftenย and doing a good job in particular of spotting his sinker. He really only pitches to his arm side, but he does a fine job ofย hitting the cornerย with it. Itโs too bad his command of his four-seamerย (which heย uses more oftenย these days)ย isnโt as sharp.
Whiffability
Porcello has actually been disappointing here in 2014. Bothย his strikeoutsย and swinging strikesย had been trending up, but not anymore. That heโsย lost some velocityย hasnโt helped, and in general all the pitches he throws have becomeย easier to hit. Given that his stuff was borderline whiffable in the first place, thereโs likely no use in hoping for a turnaround moving forward.
Hittability
Porcelloย had been becoming an extreme ground ball pitcher, and his sinker andย secondariesย are helping his ground ball rate at leastย stay above average. But his success can also be traced to how heโs mixed in some pop-ups andย medium-depth fly balls. Though there should probably be more home runs to his name, itโs safe to say heโs more than a one-trick pony with limiting hard contact.
Workhorse
Before 2014,ย Porcelloย was too prone to short outings to be a good workhorse. But he always had the efficiency for the task, and now he has the production to match it. That heโs averagingย around seven innings per startย speaks to how well heโs mixed his efficiency with a more disaster-proof style of pitching. Given that heโs still only 25 years old, this mix should continue to serve him well.
Overall
Whatโs been a career year forย Porcelloย is not without cracks, particularly regarding to his diminished ability to miss bats. But heโs definitely grown as a pitcher, showing off superior command and pitching to contact more effectively. Finally, we can stop talking about the pitcher heย mightย be and instead talk about the pitcher he is.
26. Henderson Alvarez, Miami Marlins
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Control
Alvarez has launched anย all-out attack on the strike zoneย in 2014, and things look even better if we focus on his sinker command. Heโs mastered putting it on the outside cornerย against lefties, and has played with both sides of the zoneย against righties. Further, hisย increased use of his changeupย has consisted mainly of him spotting itย low and away against lefties. For a guy whoโs still only 24, this is exciting stuff.
Whiffability
Whether Alvarez can ever become a great strikeout pitcher is doubtful. Hisย swinging-strike rateย has increased in 2014, however, and thatโs tied to him going withย less of a hard-heavy approachย thatโs allowed him to throw his slider and changeup more. Neither is aย great swing-and-miss pitch, but theyโre both solid enough to keep boosting his swinging-strike rate if he keeps downplaying his hard stuff.
Hittability
When you lean heavily on a sinker that youโre good at spotting, the ground balls are going to come. With him being well on his way to another season with aย ground ball rate over 50 percent, Alvarez can vouch. But we canโt ignore how muchย Marlins Park suppressesย his home run rate and how hitters areย clearly on to his four-seamer. When he isnโt keeping the ball on the ground, things are dicey.
Workhorse
Alvarez has lost starts to shoulder injuries in last two years, and is now dealing with yet another injury. That, his modest size (listed at 6โ0โ) andย high-velocity styleย make it hard to bank on him staying healthy.ย This makes the best thing Alvarez has gone for him his efficiency, as his good command and preference for ground balls help keep his pitch counts low. At least he has that.ย
Overall
The two big knocks on Alvarez are his ability to stay healthy and his general avoidance of strikeouts. There is some hope in the latter department, though, and thereโs little to complain about regarding Alvarezโs ability to command the ball and get ground balls. Thatโs a fine recipe for success, and he executes it about as well as anyone.
25. Matt Harvey, New York Mets*
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*Will return from October, 2013 Tommy John operation in 2015.
Control
Harveyโs excellent 1.56 BB/9 rate in 2013 was largely the product of aย solid 47.3 zone rate. Goodness knows he wasnโt shy about attacking the zone withย his 95-96 fastball. And though his command likely wonโt be as sharp in his return from Tommy John, itโs notable that his approach with his fastball in 2013 often consisted of him challenging hittersย right down the middle. Thatโs not a tough style to pick up again.
Whiffability
Only Yuย Darvishย gotย swinging strikes more frequentlyย than Harvey in 2013, and no wonder. He often won the challenges he issued with his fastball, and his curveball, slider and changeup were also well above-averageย swing-and-miss pitches. But while surgery shouldnโt hamper his stuff, you do wonder if lesser command could translate to him having to rely on his heater more than heย did in 2013. Even with his fastball being his fastball, that could cost him some whiffs.
Hittability
If Harvey does have to rely on his fastball more in 2015, heโs also likely to have trouble repeating hisย 47.7 ground ball percentageย from 2013. But even if he only becomes an average ground ball pitcher, things should still be OK. While not hard to elevate against, Harvey was extremely hard to take deep in 2013. Thatโs life when youโre good at getting both pop-ups andย medium-depth fly balls.ย
Workhorse
Harvey was a lock to go deep into games when he took the ball last year,ย averaging 6.9 innings per startย on 104 pitches. Whether weโll see that again is the question. Beyond Harvey likely being less dominant due to various factors in his comeback from Tommy John, thereโs the matter of how much the Mets are going to be watching his workload. As such, this score is playing it safe.
Overall
We should pump our brakes on expecting to see the 2013 Harvey in 2015. Even a lesser version of that Harvey, however, should still be an outstanding pitcher. As long as he at least has his good stuff, heโll be able to miss enough bats and jam enough hitters to get by fine.ย After being arguably MLB's best pitcher when he was healthy in 2013, him returning to be a top-25 pitcher is absolutely plausible.
24. Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees
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Control
That a pitcher can avoid walks so wellย without pounding the zoneย defies logic. But Tanakaโs really good at toying with the edges of the zone with his hard stuff againstย both leftiesย and righties, typically setting the latter up for sliders. Then thereโs how he uses his splitter,ย consistently placing itย both at and below the knees to get strikes via swings. Itโs a smoke-and-mirrors approach, but he executes it perfectly.
Whiffability
The obvious thing to be noted is how much Tanakaโs splitter lived up to the hype. Itโs not the only elite whiff pitch he has, though, as his slider is quietly a deadly assassinย against right-handed hitters. Thereโs only one catch: Both pitchesย reached peak whiffability early. If hitters adjust to them, Tanaka will have to settle for being one of the best swing-and-miss pitchers instead of arguablyย theย best.
Hittability
Just as much of a surprise as the whiffs is how good of aย ground ball pitcherย Tanaka turned out to be. Part of that has to do with how good his splitter is atย getting ground balls, but his sinker can do its part too. Tanaka doesnโt have the easiest time limiting hard contact when the ball isnโt on the ground, though, as he isnโt immune to line drives and home runs that stem from all theย long fly ballsย he gives up.
Workhorse
This is where we finally acknowledge that Tanakaโs right elbow may be a ticking time bomb. Heโs managed to avoid Tommy John surgery since being diagnosed with a partially torn UCL in July, but itโs still fair to call him an injury risk. Especially knowing that all this is following over 1,300 innings in Japan. Him lasting through 2015 like nothing ever happened is an iffy proposal.
Overall
The big question with Tanaka now is whether he can avoid Tommy John surgery. If he canโt, itโs likely we wonโt see him fully healthy until 2016. But right now, that he's still surprisingly avoiding Tommy Johnย leaves us to ponder his fascinating outlook for 2015: We can't count on him being healthy, but we can count on him being terrific if he is.
23. Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners
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Control
Iwakumaโsย working on anย absurdly low walk rate, so youโll be surprised to hear heโsย not actually pounding the zoneย that much more than he did in 2013. But he is finding theย bottom of the zoneย with his hard stuff more frequently, setting hitters up to swing over his slider and splitter. Itโs a dandy approach that leaves room for only one gripe:ย Iwakumaย goesย right down the middle against rightiesย too often.
Whiffability
Iwakumaย hasnโt been more than an average strikeout artist since he came into the league, and that much hasnโt changed this year. Hisย swinging-strike rateย is actually down, in partย because none of his pitchesย have become harder to hit. Even his splitterโwhich is a darn good oneโisnโt particularly great at getting whiffs, as itโs cut out more for inducing weak contact. But on that noteโฆย
Hittability
Iwakumaโsย splitter is aย terrific ground ball pitch, resulting in a grounder about 70 percent of the time itโs in play. His sinker is also a good ground ball pitch, and is nowย his primary fastball. The catch is that he isnโt actually working with a hugelyย elevated ground ball rate, in part thanks to how all his offerings have been easier to hitย for line drives. That and the reality thatย fly balls off himย tend to be deep are red flags.
Workhorse
Iwakumaโsย been maybe the most efficient pitcher in baseball this year, so it comes as no surprise that he hasnโt even needed 100 pitches toย average seven innings per start. And even though heโs not unhittable, the efficiency with which he pitches shouldnโt go away. So why worry? Mainly because itโs easy to forget thatย Iwakumaโsย a mid-30s pitcher who logged plenty of innings in Japan before coming over.
Overall
Watchingย Iwakumaย pitch is fun, as heโs one of those guys who has both the mind and the command to toy with hitters for as long as heโs out there. The only complaints worth making is that it feels like he should be a better strikeout artist than he is, and then how he doesnโt have the stuff to get away with the rare mistakes he does make.
22. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies
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Control
When an elbow injury ended Leeโs season in August, that put a Cliff Lee-like 1.33 BB/9 rate in the books. He got it through his usual means of pounding the strike zone with aย 51.5 zone rate, and he also did his thing of pitching at the kneesย with his sinkerย andย burying his cutterย mainly off the inside edge on his glove side. Though his health betrayed him, he was still himself from a command standpoint.
Whiffability
Lee didnโt have the easiest time getting strikeouts or swinging strikes. He dealt withย lesser velocity across the board, and thatย hurt his sinker and cutterย in particular. That Leeโs changeup was better than ever is a bright side, but the velocity concern is real. After losing velocity in an age-35 season that ended in an elbow injury, itโs hard to imagine it coming back next season at age 36.
Hittability
Lee finished his season with theย best ground ball rateย of his career, a gift brought to himย mainly by his changeup and cutter. But since his sinker is his bread-and-butter pitch, itโs distressing that itโs onlyย getting easier to hit on a line. Heโll have to mix and locate his pitches very well to avoid that becoming a problem. As such, I guess itโs a good thing this is Cliff Lee weโre talking about.
Workhorse
This is the first year that Lee wasnโt good forย seven innings per startย since 2009, but thatโs thanks largely to a couple rough starts and his final injury-shortened start. If Leeโs healthy in 2015, Iโd expect him to get back to being efficient enough to log seven innings on a regular basis. The only thing that bothers me is the โifโ in that sentence, as it canโt be brushed aside in light of Leeโs age and elbow scare.
Overall
Because 2014 saw Lee struggle with lesser stuff and, ultimately, a season-ending elbow injury means we shouldnโt count on him being one of baseballโs elite pitchers going forward. But as long as he can come back with his same pinpoint command and generalย pitchability, he should at least still have a spot among baseballโsย greatย pitchers.ย
21. Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
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Control
Teheran may beย throwing fewer fastballs, but upping the frequency with which heย finds the zoneย with his slider, curveball and changeup has helped keep his walk rate low. Heโs also good at locating his hard stuff on the edges, but that does come with one catch. Heโs better at itย against leftiesย than he isย against righties. Since he had theย same issue in 2013, maybe banking on improvement isnโt the best idea.
Whiffability
Teheranโs strikeout rate has declined, but heโs doing fineย getting swinging strikes. That he has two breaking balls in his slider and curveball that are good, if not quite great,ย swing-and-miss pitchesย is a big help there. Whatโs iffier is whether his four-seamerย can sustain its respectableย whiffabilityย going forward. Though heโs only 23, Teheran has alwaysย lost a mile per hourย off his 2013 velocity.
Hittability
That Teheran is anย extreme fly ball pitcherย means home runs are a constant threat, especially given that he doesnโt exactly specialize in getting pop-ups. Heโs able to largely avoid home runs, however. That he mixes and locates his pitches well helps, as it makes it tough for batters to really square him up. That shows up in hisย fly ball heat map, which is littered with can-of-corn fly balls.
Workhorse
After last yearโs 185.2 innings, Teheran hasย come back to averageย just about seven innings on only 100 pitches this year. His efficiencyโhighlighted by his good control and modest strikeout habitโsurely helps, and heโs also shown that he canย maintain velocity wellย deep into games. And with him not even in his age-24 season yet, his arm should be a long way away from being overtaxed.
Overall
Teheranโs biggest fault is that his relatively modest ability to get swings and misses means heโs awfully dependent on his fly ball approach keeping the ball in the yard. But he does a fine job of making that approach work, and heโs quietly developed into one of the top innings-eaters in the league.
20. Phil Hughes, Minnesota Twins
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Control
Hughes has always been good at attacking the zone, but this season is seeing himย outpace everybody in zone percentageย by a significant margin. It helps that aboutย 85 percent of his pitchesย are fastballs or cutters. And while weย couldย raise issue with how heย tends to live in the middle of the zone, it seems pointless in light of how he rarely ever misses it. Heโs a proverbial strike-throwing machine.
Whiffability
Hughes picks up no shortage of strikes, but he hasnโt been that much better than the average starter at picking up strikeouts. And heโs also been roughly average ย at getting whiffs. That heโs around the zone so much doesnโt help, and he doesnโt have overpowering velocityย at 92-93. He also has just one secondary pitch, and itโs a curveball thatย isnโt hard to hit.
Hittability
Target Field isnโt entirely to thank for Hughesโ home run rate dropping, as deep fly balls havenโt been as frequentย in 2014ย as they wereย in 2013. It helps that he has his cutter to give hitters something to think about, and itโs also helped himย by boosting hisย (albeit stillย very much modest) ground ball rate. So while you still worry about Hughesโ oldย gopheritisย problem, heโs legitimately gotten it under better control.
Workhorse
Even getting as many as five innings out of Hughes was an accomplishment in 2013. That makesย his new normalย of six-plus innings on less than 100 pitches a huge upgrade. Thatโs a gift of his extreme efficiency and getting the home runs under control. Heโll keep it up if he maintains this yearโs approach, and he still has another year to go before he hits 30.
Overall
The Twins had the right idea when they gambled on Hughes last winter, but even they probably didnโt think it would pan out this well. And give Hughes his share of the credit, as going for broke by assaulting the strike zone while also incorporating a cutter has worked like a charm.
19. Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
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Control
Arrieta has been throwing his slider (thatโs whatย he calls it)ย more often, and has been very effective using it to play with the edges of the zone againstย both leftiesย and righties. Though his fastball command isnโt quite as sharpโespeciallyย against rightiesโitโs hardly bad. Between that and what he can do with his slider, Arrieta has the options to get strikes that he lacked when he arrived in Chicago.ย
Whiffability
Arrietaโsย rebirth has also featured plenty of strikeouts andย swinging strikes, and itโs not just because of his slider that heโs getting those. He has aย 93-94 fastballย that he can throw by hitters, as well as a changeup and a curve that boastย borderline elite whiffability. With him still being on the good side of 30 and his arm relatively well-preserved, these weapons shouldnโt abandon him any time soon.ย ย
Hittability
Arrietaโsย rebirth also features aย career-best ground ball rate. Youโd expect as much from a guyย who leans heavilyย on his sinker and slider, and both pitches are pretty goodย at getting grounders. To boot, when heโs not getting grounders,ย Arrietaโsย getting his share of pop-ups andย shallow fly balls. When you mix good velocity with good movement and good location, this is basically what you get.
Workhorse
Thatย Arrietaย set a new career high for innings when he hit 119.1 innings says a lot about his lackluster track recordโwhich has been shaped in part by elbow and shoulder injuriesโand heโs only been about aย six-inning pitcherย besides. No wonder, as hisย inning-to-inning velocity chartย shows heโs quick to tire. Heโs made a solid first step toward becoming a top workhorse, but he still has work to do.
Overall
The Cubs made a good roll of the dice when they took onย Arrietaย as a reclamation project, but hereโs guessing heโs probably surpassed even their expectations. Though durability is still something of a question mark,ย Arrietaย has harnessed both his stuff and his command to become a pitcher who can carve up lineups in a number of different ways.
18. Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers
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Control
The walksย continue to become more infrequentย forย Darvish, and heโs earned it. Hisย zone rate has climbedย to a new high this year, in part because he's simplified things by going to his fastball more. The next step should be (hopefully) honing his fastball command, as he merely flirts with the zoneย against leftiesย and goes right down the middle too oftenย against righties.
Whiffability
Darvishย is still theย gameโs top strikeout artist, but heโs quietly not getting as manyย swinging strikes. A main problem is how his increased fastball usage has coincided withย fewer whiffs on his fastball. That hisย velocity has gone downย hasnโt helped. Still, itโs hard to doubt the guy. An increased presence in the zone means more strikes, period, and he still has his utterly devastating slider to put to good use.
Hittability
Darvishย still isnโt easy to hit, but there are good reasons why heโsย on track to postย the highest batting average against of his brief career. Hisย ground ball rate is plummeting, a byproduct of him going to his fastball more. Itโs also become easier to hit everything he throwsย for line drives, and hisย fly ball heat mapย strongly suggests there should be more home runs on his record. Frankly, none of this bodes well.
Workhorse
Better control has meant more efficient outings forย Darvish,ย and it showsย in how heโs been good for close to seven innings on fewer pitches than usual. That makes the only real concern his injury track record. There are new additions on it seemingly every week, and his recent elbow scare is the scariest one yet. So despite his youth and growing efficiency, caution is necessary.
Overall
This is one of those scores that feels a lot lower than it should be, especially knowing thatย Darvishย has only become more efficient with his pitches while remaining an elite strikeout artist. But the cracks are there. Heโs become easier to hit, both in terms of making contact and making good contact, and his injury track record isnโt getting any cleaner. Moving ahead, these are some real concerns.
17. Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Control
Because fastballs account forย just over 50 percentย ofย Greinkeโsย pitches, itโs not a shock to see himย hitting the zoneย less frequently than the average starter. And yet heโs having one of his more prolific years puttingย fastballs on the edge of the zoneย anyway, and that speaks to his pitching style in general. Take a look at everything he throws, and you notice he rarelyย gives leftiesย or rightiesย anything good to hit.ย
Whiffability
Greinkeโsย strikeout rate has returned with a vengeance. It helps to have one of theย highest chase rates in baseball, a byproduct of his ability to play with the edges of the zone. Trouble is that his slider is not the swing-and-miss pitchย it used to be, and his four-seamerโsย increasedย whiffabilityย is suspect knowing thatย his velocityย is now just 91-92. With his age-31 season on deck, keeping that up wonโt be easy.
Hittability
Greinkeย has become a virtual lock for aย ground ball rateย in the 45-50 percent range, which isnโt surprising given how he can put an assortment of pitches in areas where theyโre hard to elevate. But theย line drive ratesย on his keyย secondariesย are up this year, and heโsย not immune to homers. When the smoke and mirrors fail, he can be hit.
Workhorse
This is preemptive caution. Greinke has been good for over six innings and 100 pitches once again, but heโs had elbow scares two years in a row. Because heโs now on the wrong side of 30 and he has a pitching style that involves throwing a fair number of breaking balls, this canโt be ignored. Heโll be fine if he stays healthy, but we shouldnโt rely too heavily on that.
Overall
Greinkeย has made the transition from fastball-slider power pitcher to everything-but-the-kitchen sink finesse pitcher look easier than it has any right to be. If he stays healthy, he should be able to keep it up. But thatโs also our big concern, and a well-warranted one given his recent elbow scares.
16. Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
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Control
Keuchelย has taken a much-improved walk rate from 2013 andย made it even better. Rather than do it by pounding the strike zoneโwhich heย doesnโt do muchโhe keeps batters on their toes by living on the edges. Heโs especially good at sticking to the outside cornerย against lefties, and he frequently visits the outside cornerย against rightiesย too. The one caveat is that his misses against righties have a tendency to be in hittable areas.
Whiffability
Keuchelโsย a below-average strikeout artist, and it makes sense that he is knowing that his approach is primarily based on seeking ground ballsย with his sinkerย (more on this in a moment). Butย heโs not a below-average whiff artistย thanks to one pitch in particular: his slider. Itโs quietly one of theย most whiffable slidersย in the game, and itโs a fine tool forย Keuchelย to get whiffs.
Hittability
Youโre looking at baseballโsย top ground ball pitcher, and itโs not really close. This speaks to the quality of his sinker, which is theย groundball-iest sinkerย among starters. That alone is worthy of some props, but weโll stop short of callingย Keuchelย perfect. With velocity that only extends as high as 90 miles per hour, hisย home-run-per-fly-ball rateย is a reminder that he canโt make mistakes with his stuffs them.
Workhorse
The one knock onย Keuchelย is that he lacks a track record as an innings-eater. But limiting walks and getting a lot of ground balls is a fine way to be efficient, and it shows in how heโs averagedย about seven innings on barely over 100 pitches, with a handful of complete games to boot. He may not have a track record as an innings-eater, but this is the beginning of him building a good one.
Overall
A complete afterthought in 2013,ย Keuchelย has made himself into one of the top starting pitchers in the game. All itโs taken is sharp control, a devastating slider and a sinker that basically nobody can hit. Other struggling pitchers should take note.
15. Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays
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Control
There are two reasons Cobb is likely to never be elite at avoiding walks: Heย rarely throws fastballs, and heย rarely visits the strike zone. And yet he makes it work thanks to anย uncanny abilityย to live on the edges of the zone with his heat, and heย basically never hangsย either his curveball or his split-change. That puts his command in the โBetter Than It Looksโ file.
Whiffability
Because heย throws just 91-92ย and reliesย exclusively on his sinker, Cobbโs not one to blow hitters away. And truth be told, heโs not a great strikeout artist. But he is a swing-and-miss artist, as he buys himself plenty of swings outside the zone and both his curveball and his split-change areย outstanding whiff pitches. With him putting more and more trust in these pitches, the whiffs should keep coming.
Hittability
Because Cobb goes heavy on the slow stuff while staying out of the fat part of the zone, that heโs anย elite ground ball pitcherย who also avoids line drives makes sense. But this is thanks mainly to his curve and split. His sinker isย mediocre at getting ground ballsย by sinker standards and isn'tย impossible to take for a ride. And though he doesnโt like to throw it, itโs also a pitch he canโt avoid throwing entirely.
Workhorse
Injuries have helped to conspire against Cobb establishing himself as a top workhorse, and he didnโt get a reprieve this year when an oblique strain sidelined him for a month. Heโs also only beenย about a six-inning pitcherย when he has been healthy. This is partially thanks to his approach. It mainly works fine, but it can lead to high pitch counts and short outings when heโs not getting the swings he requires.
Overall
Cobbโs starts are worth watching if for no other reason than there arenโt many pitchers with a style like his. And it works well, as pitching off his slow stuff with good command can make for quite a few ugly swings throughout the course of an outing. Now all he needs is a full season to maximize his potential. Maybe heโll get it in 2015.
14. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
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Control
Strasburg has been limiting walks better than ever, and itโs no mirage. Already one to attack the zone, heโs been pouringย more heaters into the zoneย and also hasnโt been shy about putting his secondaries in the zone. When he does, he frequently puts themย at the knees. ย Heโs not above making mistakes, however. Righty batters who have seen quite a fewย heaters down the middleย can vouch.
Whiffability
When you have bothย a changeupย andย a curveballย that rank among the hardest to hit in the game, youโre going to get your share of whiffs. When you can also blow hitters away with a fastball thatย sits 94-95, youโre going to get even more whiffs. The inevitable catch is that said fastball was 95-96 in 2012 and 2013. If it drops again in 2015, Strasburg will need even more out of his excellent change and curve.
Hittability
Making contact against Strasburg is difficult, but making hard contact isnโt. Particularly when it comes toย his fastball, which has become easy to square upย for line drivesย andย hard-hit fly balls. That hisย secondaries get ground ballsย is his saving grace, but his fastball issues trace back to how major league hitters can time a fastball.ย
Workhorse
Whereas he didnโt even after six innings per start back in 2012, heโs nowย good for over six and around 100 pitches. His strikeout habit does elevate his pitch count, however, and Washingtonโs caution with him has helped make eight-inning starts few and far between. Heโs also prone to shorter outings thanks to his increasedย hittability. It all makes 200 innings still the goal rather than the expectation.ย
Overall
Thereโs no question that Strasburg has the control and the stuff to be an elite pitcher. Especially the stuff, as his changeup and curveball in particular are simply sublime. Itโs too bad heโs becoming easier to knock around on days when heโs not sharp, and he still hasnโt transformed into one of the leagueโs top workhorses.
13. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
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Control
Despite his funky delivery,ย Bumgarnerโsย better than the average starterย at finding the strike zone. And his control is especially pinpoint with his slider/cutter/slutterย thing, as heโs able to spot it off the same cornerโoutsideย to lefties, insideย to rightiesโwith regularity. Hisย command with his four-seamerย is less fine, however, as he rarely keeps it low and is prone to missing up and away on his arm side.ย
Whiffability
In addition to his usual deceptiveness,ย Bumgarnerย is now enjoying a spikeย in his fastball velocity. He sits 92-93, and his four-seamerโsย whiffabilityย hasย risen to a pointย where it rivals his curveball. That makes it two years in a row that his four-seamerย has been an elite swing-and-miss pitch, and more whiffs do tend to be a benefit of pitching up in the zone as often as he does. As such, maybe he can avoid regression.
Hittability
You can count onย Bumgarnerโsย ground ball rateย being in the mid-40s like clockwork,ย mainly thanksย to his slider/cutter/slutterย thing and his ability to locate it. Many a hitter has been jammed by that pitch. But what you worry about is how his four-seamerย is prone toย both line drivesย andย home runsย even despite its rising velocity. As nice as whiffs are, thatโs what you risk when you pitch up in the zone.ย
Workhorse
Bumgarnerย hasย provided his usualย six to seven innings and 100 pitches per start this year and, perhaps more importantly, actually held his new-found velocity pretty well fromย inning to inningย andย month to month. With an efficient pitching style and a blank injury history heading into what will only be his age-25 season in 2015, thereโs no reason to expectย Bumgarnerย to become less reliable.
Overall
Thatย Bumgarnerย isnโt impossible to knock around due to his insistence on pitching up in the zone is a concern, but itโs one of few. His funky delivery doesnโt keep him from having great control, and heโs hardly incapable of missing bats or inducing weak contact. Pretty good for a guy who only recently turned 25.
12. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
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Control
Wainwrightโs been at it again. Heโs limited walks by actuallyย pounding the zone more oftenย than in 2013, and has consistently poundedย lefties both in and outย and rightiesย around the outside corner. He has given us a cause for concern, however, as July and August saw him go through a stretch where he struggled to throw strikes from aย slightly different arm slot. It could be nothing, but it's also nothing to ignore.
Whiffability
Wainwrightโs strikeoutsย and swinging strikesย are both down, with part of the problem being aย dreaded velocity loss. Because heโs already 33, that velocity is likely gone for good. Thatโll leave the responsibility of getting whiffs up to his curveball, and itโs unfortunatelyย slowly losingย some of its ownย whiffability. As such, Wainwright isnโt likely to stop being a modest whiff artist.
Hittability
With hisย ground ball rate descendingย amidst declining velocity, itโs no surprise that Wainwrightโsย line drive rate and fly ball rates are up.ย The reality that heย hasnโt given up many deep fly balls, however, speaks to his ability to keep hitters off-balance. It also bodes well that heโs gone back to putting hisย trust in his sinker and cutter, which are harder to square up than his four-seamer. As such, this is a case where craftiness is visible, and very much a welcome sight.
Workhorse
Wainwright has picked up where he left off in 2013, putting inย seven innings and 100 pitchesย every time he pitches. This is also a guy who pitched over 270 innings last year between the regular season and October, as well as a guy whoโs the size of a horse at 6โ7โ and 235. But with his age-33 season coming and an elbow scareย in his recent past, Wainwrightโs track record may not be a blueprint for his future.
Overall
Though Wainwright's had a great season, he has provided reasons to worry. His typically superb control got less superb for a while there, heโs had issues missing bats and the elbow scare he had isnโt a good look in light of his age. But hey, as much as we may want to worry, we're still talking about one of the game's great pitchers.
11. Jon Lester, Oakland A's
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Control
Itโs a good sign when a guyโs walk rate isย going nowhere but down. Lesterโs getting it done byย attacking the strike zoneย with his fastball and cutter like never before, and he does so without making mistakes. He adheres to the outside cornerย against leftiesย and pitches lowย andย on both sides of the plateย against righties. Behold a guy whoโs become one of the gameโs top control artists.
Whiffability
Lesterโs painting has helped him rack up strikeouts, as heโs gettingย plenty of looking strikeouts. But heโs also gottenย more swinging strikes, withย more whiffs on his four-seamer and cutterย being largely to thank for that. But because Lesterโs average fastball velocity hasย already droppedย from 92-93 to more like 91-92, keeping that going in 2015 will be tough knowing that another velocity drop is likely at age 31.
Hittability
Lesterโs painting has also gotten him plenty of weak contact in 2014, with his four-seamer getting the pop-ups and his cutter getting the ground balls.ย His overallย ground ball rate, however, is actually trending downward. Also, theย four-seamerย and cutter he relies on so much attractย line drives. In light of that and how both pitches are likely due for a velocity loss, gathering weak contact may get more difficult.
Workhorse
Lesterโs goneย seven innings and thrown around 110 pitchesย like clockwork all year. This is what happens when you take a 200-inning pitcher and give him elite command. His velocityย does peak earlyย in games, however, and there does need to be at least some worry about him keeping it up in his age-31 season after having pitched so many innings between last season and this season.
Overall
We can quibble about whether Lesterโs going to be able to maintain this yearโsย whiffabilityย and general avoidance of hard contact, but thereโs no denying that heโs made himself into a better pitcher. Heโs never been in better control of his pitches, and itโs made every aspect of his game that much better.ย
10. Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres
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Control
Ross doesnโt have the easiest time limiting walks, and there may be no repairing that given hisย ever-growing relianceย on his slider. But heโs also a case of a pitcher whoโs command is better than his walk rate indicates, with his best talent being his ability to pound the outside corner againstย both leftiesย and righties. And for as much as he throws his slider, itโs good to know heย rarely ever hangs it.
Whiffability
Rossโ slider is quietly one of the best sliders thrown by any starter, ranking up there among the best of the best inย terms of whiffability. And since he goes to it so often, itโs a big reason hisย swinging-strike rateย is as high as it is. His strikeout rate doesnโt match his swinging-strike rate, however, and that may be the case going forward too if his sinkerย continues to supplantย his four-seamer.
Hittability
Ross was already an elite ground ball pitcher, and now heโsย even better. Thatโs life when you have a sinker thatโsย hit on the groundย roughlyย 70 percentย of the time itโs in play, and it is indeed encouraging that he seems determined to use that sinker more often. But remember that part about him rarely hanging sliders? Well, theyย doย happen, and the problem he has is that hittersย donโt tend to miss them.ย
Workhorse
Ross has been one of the better innings-eaters in the National League this season,ย regularly goingย between six and seven innings and throwing 100 pitches. Itโs also a good look that heโsย throwing harder nowย than he was at the beginning of the year. But his velocity does tend toย peak early in games, and you do have to worry about the elbow of a guy who throws so many sliders.
Overall
Maybe this comes off as being too high for Ross, but it should be hard to deny his talent. His ability to hit the corners is impressive, he has a slider that easily misses bats and a sinker that gets ground balls as well as any other sinker in the game. He looks like the next Coreyย Kluber: an emerging star who could soon become a superstar.
9. Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals
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Control
Zimmermannโs four-seam fastball accounts forย roughly 70 percentย of his pitches and sits at 93-94 miles per hour. So not surprisingly, few attack the strike zone with four-seamersย as often as he does. His style involves challengingย both leftiesย and rightiesย up in the zone. Knowing that, itโs actually impressive how infrequently he misses down the middle. Behold a guy who knows what heโs doing.ย
Whiffability
Zimmermannโs finally getting the strikeouts that his stuff says he should be getting. Thatโs a gift of all of everything but his curveballย gaining whiffability. Itโs also helped that his sky-high first-pitch strike rate has allowed him to expand the zone for swinging strikes on hisย secondaries. Heโsย taken full advantage. Itโs a precise process to repeat, but he has both the control and the stuff to do just that.ย
Hittability
As you would expect from a guy who relies so heavily on his four-seamer, Zimmermannโs not great atย getting ground balls. But pitching up in the zone with good velocity does get him pop-ups, and fly balls off him areย generally weakly hit. The key worry, however, is how his line drive rate has gone up thanks to the line drive rates on all hisย individual pitches going up. Heโs tough to hit, but not impossible.
Workhorse
The best thing Zimmermann has gone for him is his efficiency, as he can easily breeze through six innings onย fewer than 100 pitches. And because heโs still only 28-going-on-29 and showing no signs of decline, he should be able to continue doing so. Whatโs odd, however, is that six innings tend to be about his limit more often than not. Him getting to 200 innings is easy, but how far over 200 he can go is iffy.
Overall
As a pitcher, Zimmermann is more effective than exciting. His game is based on command and control, with swings-and-misses only being added to his bag of tricks this year. But it works, as there are few pitchers who are more reliable on a start-to-start basis than he is.
8. David Price, Detroit Tigers
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Control
Price isย among the eliteย at finding the zone for strike one, and he doesnโt stop hitting the zone from there. That fastballs and cutters account for aboutย 70 percent of his pitchesย helps, but heโs also good at locating those pitches. He lives on the outside edgeย against leftiesย andย against righties, straying over the middle relatively seldom against both. Simple, but definitely very, very effective.
Whiffability
For Price in 2014, the turnaround in both the strikeoutย and swinging strikeย departments has been immense, which is what happens when all your pitchesย gain whiffability. The sustainability of that is a question, though, especially with his heat slowlyย leaking velocity. A repeat performance will hinge on him continuing to blow fastballs by hitters with less velocity, which is an iffy bet.
Hittability
When Priceย hasย given up contact this year, itโs tended to be good contact. Hisย ground ball rate has fallenย once again from its 2012 peak. Itโs been about as easy toย hit his stuff for line drivesย as it was in 2013, and much easier to get hisย hard stuff in the air. And all around, elevating against Price has tended to meanย homering off him. If he does indeed lose more velocity, things probably wonโt get better.
Workhorse
Price has loggedย over seven innings and 110 pitchesย like itโs his job (which, yeah, I suppose it is) on his way to blowing past the 200-inning threshold once again. Heโll also still be on the good side of 30 next year. That leaves just one concern: that the decreasedย whiffabilityย and increasedย hittabilityย that likely lie ahead in 2015 will make pitching deep into games that much tougher.
Overall
If itโsย right nowย you want to talk about, Price deserves better than the score Iโve given him. His control is unreal, and all the whiffs heโs getting are helping to make up for the louder contact heโs given up. But weโre looking ahead, and the picture there doesnโt look as bright as it does now. But hey, even a lesser David Price should still be a darn,ย darnย good pitcher.
7. Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
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Control
Forย Cueto, being a great command artist doesnโt mean living in the zone. Heย generally doesnโt. But heโs one of the best in the business at playing with the edges of the strike zone with his hard stuffโand heโs gottenย especially prolific at itย this yearโparticularly when it comes to facingย right-handed batters. The catch is that this style bars him from being among the elite at limiting walks, but thatโs about it.
Whiffability
One thingย Cuetoโsย ability to paint has bought him is a whole bunch ofย looking strikeouts, which wonโt be easy to repeat. This is not to say heย doesnโtย have swing-and-miss stuff, however. His four-seamerย is one of theย hardest to hitย in the league, and his changeup and sliderย are both toughย too. And with one more year to go before he hits 30, maybe he can maintainย his velocity spikeย from 92-93 to 93-94.ย
Hittability
Cuetoย hasย let his four-seamerย take over for his sinker in 2014, and thatโs helped knock his ground ball rateย down a peg. Heโs still good at getting ground balls, though, and heโs also tough to square up for line drives andย well-hit fly balls. That he lives on the edges is part of the equation, but his ability to mix up his many pitches also helps. Watch any start of his, and youโre liable to see a lot of ugly swings against him.
Workhorse
This is whereย Cuetoโsย hard to figure. Heโs been a stupendous workhorse this year,ย regularly going seven innings and throwing 110 pitchesย while actuallyย gaining velocityย as games move along. But you just canโt rely on his shoulder to stay healthy, as heโs had issues with it seemingly every year. That makes it hard to project another season like this one.
Overall
Cuetoโsย been a beast from Day 1 this season, baffling hitters by painting on the edges, mixing his pitches and pitching deep into games. And though we can worry about his shoulder staying healthy and his strikeout rate coming back to earth, itโs hard not to viewย Cuetoย as one of baseballโs elite hurlers anyway.
6. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
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Control
By his 2011-2013 standards,ย Hamelsย has been walking more guys. However, heโsย hitting the zoneย about as often as the average starter while (not so coincidentally) pumpingย more fastballs into zoneย than he has in years. That the majority are at theย bottom of the zoneย is ideal, as it allows him to set batters up to swing over his changeup. Now if he would just stopย missing down the middleย against rightiesโฆ
Whiffability
Hamelsย is missing bats about as well as he did in 2013, with his main weapon still being his delicious (and very much elite) changeup. His cutter and curveball are none too shabby either. One thing to raise issue with is how heโs gotten some extra whiffs fromย increased fastball velocity, as heโs gone from 91-92 to sitting at 92. For a guy who will be 31 soon, that doesnโt reek of sustainability.
Hittability
Hamelsย hasย pushed his ground ball rateย toward its 2011 peak, and not just because his changeup isย a good ground ball pitch. His sinker is too, and heโs puttingย more and more trustย in it. To boot,ย Hamelsย is good at limiting hard contact even when he doesnโt get ground balls. By keeping hitters off-balance so consistently, he ensures that balls that are elevated off himย donโt travel far.
Workhorse
Hamelsย has topped 215 innings three years in a row, and heโs been good for his customaryย 100 pitches and almost seven innings per startย ever since his return from an early season shoulder injury. That he did battle that shoulder injury canโt be ignored, however, especially knowing thatย Hamelsย isnโt getting any younger. Itโs likely that his most durable days are in the past.
Overall
Hamelsโ success revolves largely around his changeup, which is still one of the deadliest offerings in the game. Heโs also a good command artist, and you have to admire the adjustments heโs made to limit hard contact. This leaves age-related concernsโvelocity and health chief among themโas the only real concerns.
5. Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers
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Control
Scherzerโs command potential is limited by a delivery thatโs not easy to repeat, and stuff that moves like crazy. And yet heโsย hitting the zoneย more often despite dropping his fastball usageย to a new low. That heโs located his secondariesย in the zone more oftenย is a big factor there. The lone gripe is that Scherzerโs fastball command hasnโt been as sharp as in 2013, in which he livedย at the bottom of the zone.
Whiffability
Heโs Maxย Scherzer. That means more than a strikeout per inning and a whole bunch of swings and misses, largely courtesy of one of the gameโs best sliders and a changeup thatโsย only getting harder to hit. The only catch is that his four-seamerย is becoming easier to hit, which makes sense knowing that heโsย gone from throwingย 93-94 to 92-93. And now that heโs 30, another drop is likely to happen.
Hittability
Even despite his ever-decreasing fastball usage,ย Scherzerย hasnโt quit beingย a fly ball pitcher. Thatโs life when your four-seamerย isnโt hard to elevate. Itโs also not impossible to take deep, which will only become more true if he keeps leaking velocity. But even if it does, here's guessing its primary function will still be helping Scherzer collect loads and loads of can-of-corn fly balls.
Workhorse
Scherzerโsย been good for over 100 pitches and close to seven innings when heโs taken the ballย these last two years. Him going more than seven innings, however, doesnโt happen especially frequently because of the high pitch counts his strikeout habit causes. We also have to take into account that he could be prone to more shorter outings in his age-30 season if lesser velocity does make life tougher.
Overall
Thatย Scherzerโsย getting up there means we naturally have to worry about how much longer his insane stuff is going to hold up, especially since the cracks are already starting to form. He should be a couple years away from completely losing his stuff, however, and his transformation into more of a pitcher than a thrower should help ensure he remains one of the gameโs best.
4. Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
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Control
Sale finished with a BB/9 under 2.0 in 2013 and is on his way there again. A big key is how heโs been pumping more fastballs into the zone than in hisย previous two years as a starter, setting himself up nicely to expand the zone with hisย secondaries. Whatโs not so great is Saleโs fastball command in the zone, as he often strays down the middleย against leftiesย and can be all over the placeย against righties.
Whiffability
Sale is now among the gameโs very elite. That his swinging-strike rateย has skyrocketedย is the main ingredient, with improved fastball velocity being a big reason for that. Sale isย now sittingย at 94.0, and more easilyย blowing hitters away. Add in a Frisbee-like slider thatโs one of the best in the game and an underrated changeup thatโs only becoming more unhittable, and you get a whiff master.ย
Hittability
Saleโs increasedย whiffabilityย does come with one catch, and thatโs how itโs required him to exchange someย sinkers for four-seamers. Thatโs hurt hisย overall ground ball rateย and helped increase his fly ball rate, which should probably be leading to more home runsย than it has...And yet, there's Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Infoย saying that nobody has limited hard contact better than Sale. Hard to ignore, that.
Workhorse
On the surface, itโs hard to complain about a guy whoโs been a strong bet forย seven innings and well over 100 pitchesย the last two years. But Saleโs velocity hasย tended to peakย in the first inning this year, and the thought of all those pitches is just as concerning as it is encouraging knowing that heโs had shoulder and elbow issues the last two years.ย
Overall
Exactly how many innings Sale can pitch in a given year is a question mark, but one of very few where heโs concerned. His herky-jerky delivery doesnโt bar him from finding the strike zone, and pretty much everything in his arsenal is unhittable from both a swing-and-miss and contact perspective.ย
3. Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
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Control
Thatย close to 80 percentย of Kluberโs pitches are fastballs or cutters makes it easy for him to live in the zone, so it's actually somewhat surprising that he onlyย hits the zoneย about as often as the average starter. But he doesnโt simply throw his hard stuff up there. He lives consistently on the edgeย against leftiesย and rarely strays from the outside cornerย against righties. But his really hidden talent? Nobody in the American League is better at back-dooring lefties with sliders.
Whiffability
Kluberย was good at missing bats in 2013. Heโs becomeย great at itย this year. That he sits in theย 93-94 rangeย with his heat gives him the velocity to blow batters away, but itโs his cutter and slider that do the heavy lifting. His cutter isย arguably the hardest to hitย in the game, and his slider isย right up thereย with those of Garrett Richards and Max Scherzer. Thatโs some arsenal.
Hittability
Kluberโsย only getting better atย inducing ground balls, and you would too if you had a sinker, cutter and slider asย good at getting groundersย as his. Heโs also gotten what was an absurdly high line drive rate off his four-seamerย under control, and is now inducingย more pop-ups than home runs. In so many words, heโs become very, very,ย veryย hard to square up.
Workhorse
Kluberย lacks a track record in this department, but what heโs shown this year has been encouraging. Heโs averaged roughlyย seven innings per start, and his efficiency has helped him do so on barely more than 100 pitches. Heโs also shown he can kick up his velocityย deep in games. So even despite the lack of a track record, itโs not hard to project him as an easy bet for 200 innings going forward.
Overall
It was clear in 2013 thatย Kluberย was at least underrated. Now heโs one of the elite starters in the game, mixing top-notch control with nasty stuff and an ability to limit good contact. The presence of Felix Hernandez will make it tough for him to win the AL Cy Young this year, but itโs not hard to imagineย Kluberย emerging as the favorite in 2015.
2. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
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Control
King Felix now throws his heatย less than half the timeย and is operating with aย modest zone rate. But he does an excellent job of setting hitters up with his heatโtoying with the outside cornerย against leftiesย and the bottom of the zoneย against rightiesโforcing them to protect the edges that he so often plays with. Also, mistake pitches have seldom happen, as nobodyโs thrownย more low pitches.ย
Whiffability
Hernandez has never been this good at missing bats. Youโd expect as much from a guy whoโs traded in fastballs for moreย secondaries, and his slider, changeup and curveball are all excellent atย getting swings-and-misses. That heโsย gone back to throwingย 92-93 has also helped. But knowing that heโll soon be 29 and is coming off a velocity drop in 2013, thatโs likely not sustainable.
Hittability
Hernandez is steadily becomingย a great ground ball pitcher, a benefit of him throwing both a lot of low pitches and fewer fastballs in general. It also helps that Hernandezโs primary fastball is a sinkerย thatโs good, if not quite great, at getting ground balls. Yet another bonus of all of the above is that Hernandezย isnโt getting any easierย to take deep. Beating him means trying to single him to death.ย
Workhorse
Hernandez simply refuses to break down, as heโs beenย good for seven innings and 100ย pitches per start like he always is. And though heโs asked more of his arm by pitching with more velocity, heโs held his velocity fine bothย in gamesย andย throughout the year. Maybe heโll finally break down when he hits 30, but he still has another year to go before he gets there.
Overall
Hernandez is amazing. Heโs showing no signs of running out of gas, and this year has seen him become a better command, strikeout and ground ball artist than heโs ever been. Thatโs what having good movement and location can do for you, and thereโs nobody who mixes those two things better.
1. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Control
Kershawโs reliance on his heat isย still trending downward, but heโs going to shatter last yearโs career-best 1.98 BB/9 anyway. That heโsย pounding the zoneย more is a factor, and a factor there is him puttingย more breaking balls in the zone. He also does an excellent job of poundingย lefties awayย andย righties insideย with his heat, with the only gripe being that his misses are too often down the middle.
Whiffability
Beyond racking up strikeouts at a career-high rate, Kershaw also has theย highest swinging-strike rateย of any qualified starter. He has hisย 92-93 fastballย to blow hitters away, and his curveball is still in fine form. But itโs his slider thatโs taken center stage, as heโs throwing it atย a higher velocityย and gettingย whiffs with it like never before. So in addition to the best curveball in the game, he now hasย arguably the best slider.
Hittability
Suddenly, Kershaw is a legitย ground ball pitcher. Hisย slider is doing its part, as hitters can do little to tap it into the ground when they do hit it. But while thatโs likely sustainable, the elevated ground ball rate of Kershawโs fastball likely isnโt. Regular four-seamersย like his arenโt good at getting ground balls, and his isย a rising fastballย to boot. Still, his ground ball rate will avoid a serious blow if his fastball usage continues to trend downward, andย nobody ever saidย his four-seamerย was easy to hit anyway.ย
Workhorse
That Kershaw missed a month with an injury earlier this year is going to bar him from a fourth straight 220-inning season, and is a cause for concern in this department. Thereโs not much else to complain about, though, as Kershawย is still goodย for seven innings and 100 pitches whileย holding his velocityย fine every time he takes the ball. Nitpickery aside, he's awesome.
Overall
Kershaw has gone from being the best pitcher in the game to something else entirely. His command has gone from great to elite. The emergence of his slider gives him three pitches that can miss bats. Heโs developed a ground ball habit. And ever since he returned from his injury, heโs been the same tireless worker he was before. You canโt ask for a pitcher to be more perfect than this.
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