B/R MLB 500: Top 70 Corner Outfielders
After a brief check-in with designated hitters, the B/R MLB 500 will now conclude its position-by-position tour with corner outfielders.
Corner fielders will be scored as such: 30 points for Hitting, 35 points for Power, 15 points for Baserunning and 20 points for Defense, for a total of 100 points.
The Hitting category involves not only looking at how good guys are at putting the bat on the ball and how they hit the ball, but also things like patience and plate discipline.
The Power category is not so much about raw power. It's more of a look at how much power guys have in actual games, which involves looking into how they tap into their power for extra-base hits.
The Baserunning category could be complicated, but we're going to keep it simple by focusing on how good guys are at stealing bases, taking extra bases and avoiding outs on the bases.
For Defense, we'll be putting more of an emphasis on arm strength than we did with center fielders. But range will still count for a lot, and that means looking not only at speed, but also reads and routes as well.
One thing we're not doing this year is a category for health. Rather than handle them separately, any health concerns we have will be applied to a specific category that could be impacted.
Please note that a score in the middle (i.e., 15/30 or 17/35) denotes average, not failing. And while the discussion will be centered on 2014, we also have one eye on 2015. Part of that includes B/R prospect guru Mike Rosenbaum providing scores and scouting reports for some MLB-ready corner outfielders.
Lastly, any ties will be resolved with the following question: "If we could pick only one, who would it be?"
When you're ready, you can read on.
A Note on Links and Sources
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Before we begin, there are some things you should know about the links and stats that lie ahead.
The most important thing is that CLICKING ON THE LINKS IS NOT MANDATORY. The links are there in case you're curious where a given point (or points) is coming from.
They're not from the same place. The links will take you to Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs.com, BrooksBaseball.net, BaseballSavant.com and BaseballProspectus.com. All have different data to offer, the combination of which was the backbone for the research of this project.
However, just because this project was heavily informed by stats doesn't mean you're about to be hit over the head with sabermetric jargon in this space. There are really only a couple of terms to know.
One is XBT%. That stands for "extra bases taken percentage," and it's Baseball-Reference.com's way of tracking how often players advance more than one base on singles and doubles. It's a crude way to get a picture of aggressiveness, and you'll have to pardon us for being a day behind on the percentages, but it'll have to do.
I'm also going to repeatedly refer to "the defensive metrics." This means ultimate zone rating (UZR) and defensive runs saved (DRS), which are both tracked by FanGraphs. They go about it differently, but the idea behind both is to evaluate how good players are on defense.
70. Carlos Beltran, New York Yankees
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Hitting
Whether Carlos Beltran will be seen again this year is up in the air, but his 2014 qualified as a lost season long ago. It's seen himย become less aggressiveย and more of a contact hitter than he was in St. Louis, sure, but actually making good contact has been tough. Hisย line-drive ratesย have plummeted. Just as discouraging is how heโs having a tough time hitting 90-plus heat. This could all be thanks his bad right elbow, but it might also just be his age. At 37 with a lot of miles on him, this could be the new normal for Beltran's bat.
Power
That Beltran hasnโt been able to hit line drives hasnโt helped his power, but heโs at least keptย his fly-ball habitย afloat. Heโs also continued to produce good pull power fromย bothย sidesย of the dish. Even still, you do wonder about how his power is going to hold up going forward, as age and injuries are already contributing toย a power decline. It's a good bet that decline will continue in 2015.
Baserunning
Beltranโs aging legs havenโt been spared by the injury bug in recent years, so itโs not surprising to see him easing up on theย basepaths. He can still sneak a couple of stolen bases but is otherwise trending toward a station-to-station guy withย his XBT% fallingย from 41 to 28. Thatโs not so great even for a corner outfielder, and itโs something Iโd expect to continue.
Defense
This is assuming that Beltran returns to playing right field with a healthy right elbow in 2015. If he does,ย the defensive metricsย say the Yankees will have to live with below-average defense in right. This was the case with Beltran in 2013 too, and largely a function of him just not being able to move like he used to. Beyond that, you wonder if his throwing will be the same after this yearโs elbow trouble.
Total
One sort of wants to give Beltran a pass for such a rough 2014 season, but itโs hard to do so. It shouldnโt be taken for granted that heโll return to full health, and there are too many cracks in his game to overlook. But if he can at least provide some power and put together good at-bats, heโll hold his own as a playable option.
69. David Murphy, Cleveland Indians
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Hitting
The lefty-swinging Murphy is only of use in a platoon roleย against righty pitching. And after a rough 2013, heโs come out swinging more often. He hasnโt hurt his contact habit, but he hasnโt made better contact either. Heโs dropped his line-drive rateย slightlyย and hit more ground balls. Heโs only been better because heโs collected good luck he was owed on grounders. Take that luck away, and you're not left with much.
Power
Murphyโs power is continuing to trend downward from its 2012 peak. Youโd expect to see as much from a guy whoโs hitting more ground balls. It doesnโt help that Murphyโs ability to drive the ball gets iffy beyond right field, so it's not good that heโs not pulling the ball in the airย that much these days. Thereโs every reason to expect his power decline to continue.
Baserunning
It looks like Murphyโs no longer going to come off the bench and provide double-digit steals. Nor should he be expected to as he inches closer to 33. But his baserunning doesnโt look so bad if you take away the outs heโs made at home. Heโs otherwise posted a 42 XBT% thatโs right in line with his career norm. For a corner outfielder, he's still a passable baserunner.
Defense
After playing mostly left field in Texas, the Indians have used Murphy in right field. And according to the defensive metrics, theyโve gotten well-below-average defense. They might be overstating the weakness of his arm, however. And though Murphy doesnโt run as well as he used to, heโs looked more comfortable with the angles of right field as the season has gone along. Heโs not good, but heโs not that bad.
Total
You can do worse than Murphy if youโre looking for a lefty-swinging platoon outfielder. But since he doesnโt hit, hit for power, run or play defense especially well, you can do better too.
68. Allen Craig, Boston Red Sox
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Hitting
Allen Craig has beenย about as patient and as good atย making contactย as he was in 2013, and heโs done a better job of keeping his swings confined to the zone. Trouble is pitchers have found his weakness. Theyโve pounded himย with hard stuff in, and heย hasnโt been ableย to hit it. Also, left field hasย all but disappearedย from his radar. The approach should be taken as a positive, but Craig otherwise looks broken.
Power
Craigโs power was already trending downward, and now itโsย trending downward even more. That heโs suddenly anย extreme ground-ball hitterย isnโt helping, and neither is the fact that he can no longer use left field. On the bright side, hisย opposite-field powerย is fine. He can still drive the ball the other way, and he hasn't had too much trouble producing results doing so.ย
Baserunning
After being slowed by a left foot injury toward the end of 2013, Craig has basically turned into a station-to-station runner. Stolen bases are still very much out of the question, but itโs not good thatย his XBT% has fallenย from 36 percent to 29 percent. If this is him trying to protect his foot, this might just be how he's going to run the bases from now on.
Defense
Craig has played mainly right field in 2014, and reasonably well according toย the defensive metrics. Though his arm is nothing special for right field, he actually does have decent range. Thatโs mainly when heโs coming in on the ball, where he makes his best reads and runs his best routes. Add in how he can fill in at first base and left field, and you have a decent defender.
Total
Craig can still put together solid at-bats, produce some opposite-field power and play decent defense at a couple of different positions. But knowing that he can't hit fastballs, use left field or run the bases anymore, don't hold your breath waiting for him to get back to being the player he used to be.
67. Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates (Prospect)
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Hitting
Josh Bell is a physically strong switch-hitter with the potential for an above-average-or-better hit tool. He employs a short line-drive stroke from the right side of the plate and a more leveraged and power-oriented swing from the left.ย In general, Bell has an advanced feel for the zone, evidenced by his strong strikeout and walk rates as a professional.
Power
Bell has hit nearly three times as many doubles (64) as home runs (23) as a professional, and itโs only a matter of time until some of those two-baggers start clearing fences. As he continues to add strength and gain experience against quality pitching, itโs easy to envision Bell becoming a middle-of-the-order threat capable of hitting 20-25 home runs at maturity.
Baserunning
Bell is an average-at-best runner at the present, as his speed plays better in the outfield than it does on theย basepaths. That being said, he knows how to pick spots to run and could swipe around 8-10 bags in a given season.
Defense
Defensively, Bellโs average athleticism and range profile at either corner outfield position, though his strong arm is better suited for right field.ย The 6โ2โ, 235-pounder would also be a candidate to move to first base should he lose a step.
Total
Bellโs offensive development has progressed quickly after a slow, injury-filled start to his career, as he projects to hit for both average and power at the highest level. His future defensive home remains up in the air, especially given the Piratesโ current outfield configuration, but the organization still has time to determine how to get his bat into the mix.
66. Will Venable, San Diego Padres
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Hitting
Itโs been a down year for Will Venable, and it looks even worse knowing the lefty swinger only playsย against righties. That heโsย continued to be aggressiveย and whiff too much hasnโt helped, but more distressing is how easy itโs been for righties to beat himย with anything slow. This has been true even in hisย second-half rebound. Knowing this, you have to figure pitchers wonโt do him the courtesy of aย spike in hard stuffย again.
Power
Venable repeating last yearโs 22-homer performance always was going to be tough. At the least, he was going to have to show off the sameย impressive pull power. He hasnโt done that, mainly because he just hasnโt pulled theย ball in the airย to right field as often. And in general, well-hit ballsย havenโt been nearly as frequentย as they wereย in 2013. With Venable nearing 32, you naturally worry if this power loss will stick.
Baserunning
Venableโsย streak of four straight 20-steal seasons is going to come to an end, and what steals he has produced havenโt come with ideal efficiency. Heโs also run into more outs on theย basepaths, and hisย 41 XBT%ย is no better than his career norm. Heโs still a better runner than most corner outfield types, but not by much anymore.
Defense
Venable has actually played moreย center field than right field, butย the defensive metricsย are pretty well convinced heโs a better fit for right field. He has a better grasp of the angles of right field than he does in center field. And relative to most right fielders, he gets good jumps and tracks balls well. All he needs is arm strength, which, unfortunately, he doesnโt have.
Total
Coming off a year in which he was a surprise 20-20 player, itโs hard to look at what Venable has done in 2014 without feeling disappointed. And frankly, itโs hard to make excuses for him. But at the absolute least, he still has occasional power, solidย baserunningย skills and a good glove to offer.
65. Dayan Viciedo, Chicago White Sox
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Hitting
Compared to 2013, Dayanย Viciedoย is actually beingย less aggressive and more disciplined. Hats off to him for that. Itโs too bad heโs less aggressive and more disciplined only by his standards. He also swings and misses too muchโand is getting worseย as a line-drive hitter. And he still hasnโt solved his problem with making outs onย pitches down and away. In short, he hasnโt solved the fact that heโs a lousy hitter.
Power
This, fortunately, is one thingย Viciedoย can manage just fine. Heโsย getting betterย at hitting the ball in the air, and his raw power is enough to make balls in the air go farย regardless of the direction. Indeed, that heโs had his best season yetย hitting homers to right fieldย is encouraging. Itโs therefore too bad about his dwindling line-drive habit, as that leaves him with one less avenue to add doubles to his homers.
Baserunning
You wouldnโt expect a guy known as โTankโ to be a goodย baserunner, and heโs not. He last stole a base back in 2011, and heโs only managedย a 37ย XBT%ย with just five first-to-thirds in 26 chances. If youโre looking forย baserunningย wizardry, donโt look in his direction.
Defense
Viciedoย has been needed in both left and right field this season, andย the defensive metricsย think heโs been a subpar defender at both positions. Thatโs no surprise. Heย has a pretty good arm, but his range is very much limited. Beyond lacking goodย foot speed, he struggles with reads off the bat and running good routes.
Total
Viciedoย has some pretty good power to offer, and potentially more so going forward at the rate heโs going. Itโs just not going to come with consistent hitting, goodย baserunningย or good defense.
64. Domingo Santana, Houston Astros (Prospect)
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Hitting
Though heโs struck out at an alarming rate (30.1 percent) over six professional seasons, Domingo Santana still manages to make consistent contact and even improved his walk rate this year at Triple-A. His pitch recognition and approach are works in progress, but the natural ability is there to be a .250-plus hitter at maturity.
Power
Power will always be Santanaโs calling card, as heโs tallied at least 12 home runs and 23 doubles in each of the last four seasons. His game obviously features too many swings and missesโheโs struck out at least 135 times in his last four seasonsโbut plus raw power like Santanaโs doesnโt grow on trees. Once he settles in at the highest level, the 6โ5โ, 225-pound right-handed hitter should be good for upward of 20 bombs.
Baserunning
Given Santanaโs massive frame and present strength, it probably wonโt be long until he loses a step or two. However, he still runs the bases well, covering ground with his long strides.
Defense
Santanaโs size, athleticism and plus arm strength make him a perfect fit in right field, though his reads and routes require further refinement.
Total
Santana has the potential to be a solid everyday right fielder who hits 20 home runs, but strikeouts likely will remain a problem during his career. That being said, Santana is still very young and will receive every opportunity to reach his potential.
63. Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds (Prospect)
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Hitting
Jesse Winker, 21, is one of the best pure hitters in the minor leagues, as he features a smooth, compact stroke from the left side of the plate and is already adept at using the entire field. More importantly, Winker possesses plate discipline and pitch recognition well beyond his years, which is reflected through his impressive strikeout (17.5 percent) and walk (14.3 percent) rates over 1,100 minor league plate appearances.
Power
Winker has hit at least 15 home runs in each of his first two years in full-season ball, and his 6โ3โ, 210-pound frame and line-to-line approach suggest more will come. He did spend the final month-plus of the minor league regular season on the disabled list with a strained tendon in his right wrist, so itโll be interesting to see whether it affects his power.
Baserunning
Speed is arguably Winkerโs weakest tool, as heโs a tick below average and will never be considered a stolen base threat. That being said, he does have underrated athleticism and moves well station to station.
Defense
Winkerโs defense has improved significantly over the last two seasons, but heโs still limited to only left field due to his lack of speed and arm strength.
Total
Winker was viewed as a potential .300 hitter with a 10-15 home run ceiling, but his power surge, even in the hitter-friendly California League, may show that he has more power than previously believed.ย Winker has demonstrated more power and a better approach than was previously anticipated, and he could be a solid left fielder who hits in the middle of the lineup.
62. Collin Cowgill, Los Angeles Angels
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Hitting
Collin Cowgill takes decentย patience and disciplineย to the plate, and the righty swinger is showing once again he can do damageย against lefties. Exactly how much better heโs been in 2014 is a good question, though. Much of his success stems from aย high average on ground balls, and hisย zone coverageย really only covers pitches he doesnโt have to reach for. Heโs had more than a little luck on his side.
Power
When youโre as much a ground-ball hitter as Cowgill, hitting for power isnโt so easy. Though he has a decent fly-ball rate, it looks less decent once you stripย away all his pop-ups. That leaves one good thing: his pull power. Left field is the one spot where he can give theย ball a good jolt, and heโsย kept the pull powerย he established in 2013 coming in 2014. Itโs not much, but itโs something.
Baserunning
This year has granted Cowgill with more chances to show off hisย baserunningย chops, and the results have been solid. Heโs swiped a few bases, and even better, he has posted a rock-solidย 55 XBT%. The one gripe is that heโs also run into more outs than he ever has before, with the bulk of them coming at third base. Heโs a goodย baserunner, but itโs safe to say his potential hasnโt been reached yet.
Defense
According toย the defensive metrics, this is the real benefit of having a guy like Cowgill around. Heโs rating as an easily above-average defender in both left and right field. That he has enough arm for either position helps, but itโs his range that stands out. His speed allows him to cover more ground than most corner outfielders, and it doesnโt hurt that he plays the outfield with energy to spare.
Total
Exactly how much value Cowgill can provide with his bat is a good question, as heโs mainly a ground-ball hitter whoโs only good against lefties. But at the least, he can provide very good defense in both left and right field with some solid work on the basepaths on the side.
61. Oscar Taveras, St. Louis Cardinals
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Hitting
Oscar Taverasย has lived up to his billing by being anย aggressive hackerย who expands the zone. But heโs shown he can do so and be a good contact hitter, and itโs to his credit that he hasnโt been fazed byย right-handed off-speed stuff. But while this is enough to be optimistic, he needs better zone coverageย against hard stuff, aย smaller ground-ball rateย and to start living up to his billing asย a bad-ball hitter.
Power
The biggest limitation onย Taverasโ power since heโs been in the majors is his aforementioned high ground-ball rate. Youโre not going to hit for much power when over half your batted balls are on the ground. Hisย pull powerย has been decent enough, however, and heโs hit the ballย better to left fieldย than hisย opposite-field productionย indicates. Without getting too carried away, his power isnโt without potential.
Baserunning
Itโs hard to form an opinion ofย Taverasโย baserunningย on the sample size we have, but it hasnโt been impressive. He hasnโt been active stealing bases, and heโs managed justย a 32 XBT%ย while also running into a couple outs at third base. Indications are heโll be better than this, but you wonder if his baserunningย ceiling has lowered since last yearโs ankle trouble.
Defense
Taverasย has been used almost exclusively in right field, andย the defensive metricsย are right to be skeptical of how good he is at the position.ย Taverasย has the arm and the athleticism for right field, but heโs had his adventures with reads and routes. Though he should be better moving forward, he wonโt be unless he cleans some things up first.
Total
Suffice it to sayย Taverasย hasnโt taken to the majors like a duck to water. Heโs shown flashes, but theyโve really only been flashes. But at the very least, itโs a good sign that he hasnโt been completely overmatched at the plate, showing off an ability to make contact and also a quiet ability to drive the ball.
60. Chris Heisey, Cincinnati Reds
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Hitting
If thereโs one thing Chrisย Heiseyย can do well, itโsย hit line drivesย to left field. To that end, he has few equals. Now all he has to do is learn how to use the rest of the field, how toย hit slow pitches, how toย stop whiffing so much, how toย stop swinging so darn muchย and generally how to do everything else except thatย oneย thing.
Power
Thatย Heiseyย specializes in rocketing the ball to his pull side means he has a pretty good floor for his power. That heโs also a prolificย fly-ball hitterย is even better. So not surprisingly, really anythingย he hits to left fieldย has a chance to go for an extra-base hit. Itโs only one field and heโs only a part-time player, but thatโs enough to make him a decent power supply.
Baserunning
Heiseyย showed in the past that he was a threat to sneak a few steals here and there. Heโs sneakedย more than just a few this year, and with pretty good efficiency to boot. Thatโs a good look for a part-time player. And while not great, hisย 44 XBT%ย is at least good enough. It also looks slightly better knowing heโs gone first to third about half the time heโs had a chance.ย
Defense
Heisey hasย played a more even distribution of left, center and right field in 2014, and itโs a glowing endorsement thatย the defensive metricsย like his defense at all three. He doesnโt have a dangerous arm, but what he does regardless of what position he's playing is get good jumps on balls with good closing speed. With that kind of versatility and that kind of talent, heโs a darn good guy to have around.
Total
Donโt go running toย Heiseyย if you want a guy with a consistent bat. But if you want a guy with some legit pull power, solidย baserunningย skills and a good glove for all three outfield positions, heโs a good choice.
59. Wil Myers, Tampa Bay Rays
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Hitting
A long absence with a fractured wrist hasnโt helped, but Myers has just plain looked lost in 2014. His approach isnโt as advanced as it looks knowing how much heโs offered at the increased amount of junk heโs seen off the outside corner, his line drives are down, and heโs not producing toย the opposite field like he did in 2013. The talent is still there, but this is a perfect storm of problems to bounce back from.
Power
On paper, itโs good that Myers has hit more fly balls. Itโs also good that heโs hit more balls in the airย to his pull side, and that heโs been reasonably productive on those to boot. But wrist injuries are scary, and theyโre even scarier when players who suffer them donโt show power after they return. Thatโs the case with Myers, so itโs hard to have high hopes going forward.
Baserunning
Not that we have much to go off of, but baserunning is one area where Myers has been fine in 2014. Heโs continued to sneak the occasional steal, and heโs upped his already solid 46 XBT% to an even more solidย 53 percent. This is more than likely as good as his baserunning is going to get, but thatโs OK. Such production is pretty good for a corner outfielder.
Defense
They havenโt gotten to see much in 2014, but the defensive metrics havenโt needed much to conclude that Myers is still at best an average defender in right. They have legit gripes. Though heโs a solid athlete, his reads and routes still look like those of a guy who only recently moved to the outfield from catcher. And while his arm is normally solid, you have to wonder if itโs the same after his wrist injury.
Total
Itโs been a lost season for the 2013 AL Rookie of the Year. In addition to his broken wrist, Myers has struggled with his hitting and fielding. That leaves just his talent to trust in. To that end, it's a good thing he has the whole "2013 AL Rookie of the Year" thing going for him.
58. Mark Trumbo, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Hitting
One thing thatโsย getting better every yearย is Mark Trumboโs chase rate, which tells us his eye is getting better. Just as good, his solidย line-drive ratesย have helped him hit slow stuffย better than he did in 2013. All he needs to do now is hitย more line drivesย in general, make more contact outside the zone and cultivate more complete coverageย in the zone, and he might actually become a good hitter.
Power
Trumboโs power once producedย the loudest soundย Iโve ever heard, and his tendency toward fly balls shouldย allow that power to be heard from often. But Trumboโs power has really only been OK. This is partially because he hasnโt hit the ball in theย air to left fieldย that often, possibly because of hisย bad left foot. A turnaround should be in order, but his situation isnโt without doubt.
Baserunning
Nobodyโs ever accused Trumbo of being fleet of foot, and heโs still not. Stolen base attempts havenโt gone too well, and he also has justย a 21ย XBT%. His bad foot has presumably had a hand in him slowing down, but itโs not like Trumbo was the aggressive sort to begin with. His XBT% the last two seasons was only 33 percent. Foot injury or no foot injury, heโs a station-to-station runner.
Defense
The defensive metricsย have Trumbo rated as a decent first baseman. Itโs therefore too bad heโll have to go back to left field when Paul Goldschmidt returns in 2015, as heโs a downright terrible left fielder. His arm is fineโTrumbo is a former pitcher, after allโbut his range is sorely lacking thanks to a lack ofย foot speedย and a strong ability to read and trace fly balls. When he plays left, itโs not pretty.
Total
Trumbo has only ever had one good tool: his power. Alas, that tool hasnโt been seen that much in 2014 thanks to the left foot injury heย suffered early in the season. In light of that, itโs even harder to anticipate him being a good player than it was before.
57. Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
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Hitting
Carlos Gonzalezโs season hit a bump when he basically had to have aย Dalekย removed from his finger, and then it ended early thanks to aย bad left knee. In between, he was a total mess. He was wayย over-aggressive, couldnโt hitย inside fastballs,ย stopped hitting line drives and whiffed a ton. And withoutย help from Coors Field, things would have been even worse. As talented as Gonzalez is, this is an awful lot to correct.
Power
As messy as Gonzalezโs hitting was, his power could have been worse. He maintainedย a decent fly-ball rate and was actually more efficient hitting the ballย out to right fieldย than heโd ever been before. But heย wasnโt driving the ballย the other way and up the middle like he couldย in 2013. That power may not come back if his left knee is compromised, as it takes a strong base to drive the ball the other way.
Baserunning
Naturally, Gonzalezโs streak of four straight 20-plus steal seasons came to an end this year. He also watchedย his XBT% fallย from 53 to 44, and three outs at third base in less than half a seasonโs worth of games isnโt such a good look. And, again, as much as you want to be optimistic about a turnaround, you worry about that knee going forward.
Defense
After actually living up to his Gold Glove reputation in 2013,ย the defensive metricsย went back to being sour on Gonzalezโs defense in 2014. His arm is better than the metrics gave him credit for, though, and should continue to be an asset going forward. The bigger question is if his range will come back. Itโs hit-or-miss to begin with because of how his routes can be inefficient, and his knee injury likely wonโt help.
Total
This score is definitely low for a player ofย CarGoโsย caliber. But after the kind of season he just went through, this score is actually going out on a limb that he can make a comeback. He has some serious talent, but he spent 2014 dealing with all sorts of serious issues that were compounded by serious health problems.
56. Alejandro De Aza, Baltimore Orioles
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Hitting
Alejandro Deย Azaย has been used asย a platoon player, and thatโs made himย more aggressive. His swing, chase and swinging-strike rates are all up. The trade-off has been better contact. Hisย line-drive ratesย are up, and heโsย spread them aroundย pretty well. Knowing this, he might deserve a better average on balls in play. As long as heโs kept in his platoon role, he could be in line for better numbers in 2015.
Power
Deย Aza isnโtย repeating last yearโs home run surge, in part because of his subdued playing time, and in part because hisย home run rateย to his pull side has leveled off. But heโs kept his power in decent shape. Despite aย lesser fly-ball rate, heโs been able toย pull the ballย in the airย more often. If itโs that easy for him to pull the ball against righties, his power at least has a solid floor.
Baserunning
Deย Azaย has an outside chance at a third straight 20-steal season, but even going past 15 is good enough considering his playing-time situation. Itโs too bad that his stolen base habit doesnโt come with efficiency, and on the side he only hasย a 39ย XBT%ย thatโs low by his standards. This doesnโt make him a bad baserunner, but heโs not quite as good as his stolen base total says he is.
Defense
After stumbling around in center field in 2013, Deย Azaย has been used mainly in left field in 2014โand to much better results as far asย the defensive metricsย are concerned. Range that was just OK in center has been better than OK in right, as Deย Azaย breaks faster and moves quicker than a lot of corner outfielders. And though not perfect, his arm is at least passable for left field.
Total
His 2013 power surge has ended and hisย baserunningย is just OK, but turning Deย Azaย into a platoon left fielder has worked out reasonably well. He hits right-handers better than his numbers suggest, and heโs a better defender in left than he was in center.
55. Eric Young Jr., New York Mets
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Hitting
Eric Young Jr. is now close to being the kind of hitter he should be, as he combinesย good disciplineย with anย extreme ground-ball habit. With his speed, thatโs ideal. Trouble is heย hasnโt improvedย as a contact hitter, and he also doesnโt have ideal bat control to go with his ground-ball habit.ย From the left side, in particular, itโs either one side or the other rather than both sides and up the middle.
Power
When over 60 percent of your batted balls are on the ground, youโre not going to find yourself hitting for much power. And given his lack of home run power, the best thing Young can do is hope for doubles and triples on balls in the gaps. As such, itโs fortunate that he at least has a good eye for the right-center gap fromย bothย sidesย of the plate.ย
Baserunning
Young isnโt going to lead the league in steals again like he did in 2013, but he should at least pass 30 for a second straight seasonโand with pretty good efficiency to boot. You can add in anย excellent 64ย XBT%ย with very few non-caught-stealing outs on the side, and what you get is a picture of one of the better baserunnersย in the league.
Defense
Like they did in 2013,ย the defensive metricsย rate Young as an above-average defender in left. Itโs mainly his range that does the trick, and you can guess where it comes from. Though he has a tendency to make adventures of his routes to balls, he has more than enough speed to make up for it. His bigger limitation is his arm, which just isnโt strong enough for a corner outfield spot.
Total
Youngโs bat isnโt much to speak of. His approach is sound, but heโs not actually that good at hitting the ball or hitting for power. Itโs a good thing he has speed in abundance, and that he can use it both on the basepathsย and in left field.
54. Mike Morse, San Francisco Giants
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Hitting
Mike Morse has spent 2014 living up to the legend. Heโs stillย hacking at everythingย and whiffing a lot, and his long swingย leaves him vulnerableย to hard stuff up and in on his hands. With weaknesses like these, consistency will always be tough for him. We can, however, give him credit for at least making good contact. Hisย line-drive rates are up, and theย whole fieldย has been in playย on his liners and ground balls.
Power
Morse has tremendous raw power, and it shows in how balls heย hits in the airย donโt tend to be cheapies. This said, there are good reasons why his power peak is in the past. Beyond simply being a little older at 32, heโs notย the fly-ball hitterย he once was. Partially because of that, heโs notย hitting the ball in the air to his pull sideย as often. He still has good power to offer, but not great power.
Baserunning
You donโt look at Morse and see a fast runner. Probably because heโs not. His last stolen base happened in 2011, and itโs saying a lot that hisย mediocre 33 XBT%ย is actually pretty good by his standards. He is what he is, and thatโs a station-to-station runner.
Defense
Morse has spent the bulk of 2014 playing left field, doing plenty in the process to remind everyone he really should be playing first or justย DHโing.ย The defensive metricsย have him rated as an easily below-average left fielder, because of course they do. Morseโs arm doesnโt play well in the outfield, and his range is severely limited by inefficient routesย andย poorย foot speed.
Total
That Morse is as useless as he is running theย basepathsย and playing the field puts a pretty big cap on his ability to rack up value. But we probably give him too much grief about his bat. Wild swinger though he may be, he could be a lot worse at squaring the ball up.
53. Matt Joyce, Tampa Bay Rays
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Hitting
The lefty-swinging Matt Joyce isย strictly a platoon hitter. His mix ofย patience and disciplineโand, by extension,ย his walk ratesโhas long been indicative of how well he sees righties. This is not to say he doesnโt have weaknesses. Hisย whiff rates are upย across the board, hisย line drive rate is downย and he stillย canโt hit right-handed slow stuff. It's a good thing he has that excellent approach.
Power
Joyceโs power isย trending downwardย in a hurry, and what heโs done this year says another drop could be forthcoming. Heโs not only hittingย fewer fly balls, but alsoย fewer ballsย in the air to right field. Because thatโs clearly where theย majority of his powerย is situated, thatโs a problem. His pull power is still good enough for now, but his descending power and part-time role are a bad mix.
Baserunning
Joyce is typically a strongย baserunner, but this is another area where heโs trending in the wrong direction. He hasnโt had any luck stealing bases, and heโsย watched his XBT%ย fall from a peak of 61 percent in 2011 to 45 percent this year. Given how heโs now past 30, it's fair to expect Joyce's baserunning to continue its trend toward average.
Defense
The Rays play Joyce in right and left field, but mainly in left.ย The defensive metricsย think thatโs the right idea. Joyce does indeed look more comfortable with the angles of left field than he does with the angles of right field, and he has enough speed to put his range at about average for the position. Itโs too bad he doesnโt have much of an arm to go with his range.
Total
There are some faults in Joyceโs bat and his power is declining, but heโs still of use as a platoon player. He sees right-handers very well, and he can play decent, if not quite great, defense in left field.
52. Josh Hamilton, Los Angeles Angels
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Hitting
That pitchers are feeding Josh Hamiltonย progressively fewer fastballsย makesย his aggressivenessย easier to forgive. We can also tip our caps to him for getting better hittingย everything for line drives, and for improving againstย low-and-away pitches. Whatโs harder to forgive is how hisย whiff rates on slow stuffย are back up, and how he's aย perfect shift candidate. He's been better, but he's still vulnerable.
Power
With the number ofย line drives and fly ballsย he hits, Hamilton should still be a stud power hitter. But he just canโt drive the ball like he used to. That becomes obvious if you line upย his 2014 batted-ball mapย with his batted-ball maps fromย 2012ย and 2013. His power potential is further restricted by his constant health woes, the latest of which are aย right shoulder injuryย and chest pain that could sideline him for the rest of 2014.ย
Baserunning
Hamilton isnโt about to become a base stealer, and itโs not a good look that 2014 has seen him run intoย so many outsย on the bases. At the same time, he is a more aggressiveย baserunnerย than many might realize. Heโs working on a 50 XBT% this season, and thatโs not far off his career norm of 46 percent. Heโs not going to get any faster at his age (33), but heโs not quite a station-to-station runner yet.
Defense
The defensive metricsย rate Hamilton more strongly as a left fielder than they did as a right fielder in 2013, but only to the extent that heโs close to average. Thatโs fair, as he doesnโt have a good arm for a corner outfield spot and is still limited by a lack of good closing speed. About the only thing he still does well is track fly balls efficiently for the most part.
Total
Hamiltonโs 2014 season hasnโt been completely without bright sides, but he still looks like a shell of the hitter he used to be. His bat still has holes in it, and his power is fading. At the rate heโs going, heโs really not much more than a playable outfielder. And thatโs when heโs healthy, which isn't often.
51. Oswaldo Arcia, Minnesota Twins
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Hitting
We can give Oswaldoย Arciaย credit for making better contactย against slow stuffย than he did in his time in the majors in 2013, but not much else. He has anย alarming platoon split, heโsย over-aggressive with his swings, he swings and misses too muchย and heโs very weak against pitchesย up in the strike zone. His bat looked like it needed some fine-tuning in 2013. It still does in 2014.
Power
Arciaย fortunately has more to offer in this department. Heโsย mixing line drives and fly ballsย better than he did in 2013, and heโs basically said โscrew itโ and gone for aย more pull-heavy air assaultย on right field. Itโs worked out quite well, but donโt overlook the power he hasย up the middle too. He doesnโt have any power to left, but what heโs shown this year is very real 30-homer power.
Baserunning
Arciaโsย not enough of a burner to steal bases, so donโt expect him to start lighting things up in that department. But thereโs potential in his ability to round the bases. Theย 56ย XBT%ย heโs working on is good stuff for a corner outfielder, and it looks even better when you notice the eight first-to-thirds in 18 chances. If he can keep that up,ย baserunningย wonโt be a weakness.
Defense
The Twins have playedย Arciaย in right field after playing him mostly in left field in 2013. According toย the defensive metrics, the results have been about as ugly. Theyโre probably overstating his lack of a good playmaking ability, but his range is limited by hisย foot speedย and occasionally limited by long and/or zigzagย routes. At least he has more than enough arm to help make up for that.
Total
Arciaโsย hitting is a mess and his defense in right field is lacking, but he does have one tool that looks very strong: his power. Itโs been impressive in a little more than half a season and should be even more impressive over a full season.
50. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
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Hitting
Ryan Braunโs approach is a mess. He was an aggressive hitter before, but 2014 has seen himย becomeย over-aggressive, and with more of a whiff habit to boot. And while he has aย decent line-drive rate, itโs shocking how few of them haveย been to left field. This is likely due to hisย wounded right hand, which sounds like it could be a lingering problem. If so, get used to seeing this new ordinary Ryan Braun.
Power
That Braun isnโt the fly-ball hitter he was in 2011 and 2012 is reason enough for his power to be down, but his suddenly sporadic ability to hit the ball hard to left fieldย isnโt helping either. While the silver liningย shouldย be that heโsย continued to showย solid pop up the middle and to right field, itโs hard to put much faith in that. If Braunโs hand really is that bad, maybe hisย second-half powerย is a sign of things to come.
Baserunning
Braun isnโt doing so hot here either. Heโs shown he still has the speed for double-digit steals, but not enough of it to do so with good efficiency. And whileย his 43 XBT%ย is passable, that heโs also made a staggering number of outs on the bases pretty much cancels it out. Braunโsย baserunningย is at best an average strength now, and you have to think it wonโt get any better since he turns 31 in November.
Defense
Itโs not too surprising to seeย the defensive metricsย rating Braun as a liability in right field. He looks like he hasnโt had the easiest time adjusting to the angles, sometimes taking the long way to fly balls. But while that can be fixed, Braunโs average arm (by right field standards) and dwindling athleticism will be a lot tougher to fix.
Total
The best way to put it is that Braun looks broken. Heโs not an asset on theย basepathsย or in the outfield, and that bad right hand of his has done a number on his hitting and could continue to do so going forward. The only positive thing to say is that lesser hitting from Braun should still be at least solid hitting.
49. Stephen Piscotty, St. Louis Cardinals (Prospect)
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Hitting
Stephen Piscottyย is a smart hitter with aย mature approachย and consistently uses the whole field, stinging the ball from line to line. The right-handed batter demonstrates patience at the plate as he works deep counts and waits for specific pitches, and he rarely cheats himself by chasing secondary pitches out of the zone. Piscottyโsย hit tool grades as a plus, and he should have no problem batting at least .280 in his prime.
Power
At 6โ3โ, 210 pounds,ย Piscottyย has plenty of gap power but previously lacked the pop commonly associated with a first-division corner outfielder. However, heโs shown more consistent power while moving up the ladder, amassing at least 40 extra-base hits in each of the last two seasons.ย Piscottyย has plenty of strength and is still coming into his own as a hitter, so expect the power to continue to emerge with experience.
Baserunning
Piscottyโsย speed is only average, but it plays up on both sides of the ball thanks to his impressive athleticism. In addition to being an aggressive and efficientย baserunner,ย Piscottyโsย feel for reading pitchers and situations could help him swipe roughly 10 bags per year.
Defense
A third baseman in college,ย Piscottyโsย athleticism and high baseball IQ helped him make a smooth transition to the outfield in 2013. The 23-year-old profiles as an above-average defender in right field with plus arm strength, as he also gets consistently good reads off the bat and takes direct routes. Meanwhile, Piscottyย isnโt afraid to sacrifice his body to make aย highlight-reel play.
Total
Piscottyโsย hit tool and solid defense will get him to the major leagues in 2015, but it will be his development of consistent in-game power that will ultimately determine whether he becomes more than a fourth outfielder at the highest level.
48. Daniel Nava, Boston Red Sox
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Hitting
Daniel Nava is a switch-hitter, but oneย with splitsย that demand he play only against right-handers. And with his long-ish swing, itโs no surprise theyโve been able to beat him withย fastballs around his belt. Aside from that, he stillย works terrific at-batsย with a very strong contact habit and a goodย line-drive rate against righties. Itโs no fluke that heโs hit so much better since he returned from the minors in June.
Power
Itโs good that Nava has found his hitting stroke, but hisย power has fallen offย quite a bit from 2013. This is largely owed to how heโsย hit more ground balls. He also hasnโt had theย same opposite-field powerย from the left side, which doesnโt look like a fluke if you compare hisย 2013 batted-ball mapย to hisย 2014 batted-ball map. Without that and with all the ground balls, he doesnโt have much to offer.
Baserunning
As Nava has quietly resurrected his bat, so too has he quietly improved hisย baserunning. That heโs added some steals is nice, but the real improvement concerns his aggressiveness. Heโsย upped his XBT%ย from 37 last year all the way to 56 percent, and heโs done it without racking up additional outs on theย basepaths. For a part-timer whoโs not a fast runner, this is good stuff.
Defense
Nava has been used in left field, right field and at first base, andย the defensive metricsย think heโs been good at all three spots. Particularly in right field, they love his arm and playmaking ability. Theyโre overrating bothโespecially Navaโs armโbut he does get the most out of limited athleticism by breaking quickly and tracking fly balls well. That and his versatility make him a good guy to have around.
Total
That Navaโs a switch-hitter is a bit of a tease given that heโs only useful from the left side, and itโs not the best look that his power has dried up. But because he can put together good at-bats and is quietly a talentedย baserunnerย and defender, heโs a pretty good player.
47. Josh Willingam, Kansas City Royals
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Hitting
Josh Willingham is one of the most patient hitters out there, as his M.O. is to seeย plenty of pitchesย andย not swingย at any bad ones.ย Itโs thanks to this habit that heโs able to drawย lots and lots of walks. The actual act of hitting, though, isnโt his specialty. Pitchers play into hisย weakness against slow stuffย by giving himย plenty of it, and such anย extreme fly-ball styleย makes it pretty much impossible for him to hit for average.
Power
Willinghamโs fly-ball style allows him to have a high floor for his power production. When heโs been healthy, heโsย continued to makeย pretty much every ball in the air to left field count. But you do worry about lingering effects from the left wrist injury he suffered earlier this year, and itโs noteworthy that balls in the air to left field have actually beenย pretty infrequent. That could be him showing his 35 years.
Baserunning
Youโre typically not going to see Willingham run the bases very well. Thatโs been slightly different this year in light of hisย solid 46 XBT%, which is up from 32 percent last year. But the lesser XBT% he has since joining the Royals is more likely his trueย baserunningย talent at this juncture. Take that and combine it with a basically nonexistent stolen base habit, and thereโs no reason to expect much.
Defense
Maybe Willingham will continue being a full-time DH after he leaves the Royals, but left field is where heโs spent most of 2014 and, indeed, his whole career. Itโs not surprising thatย the defensive metricsย generally donโt like his defense out in left field. His lack ofย foot speedย severely limits his range, and he doesnโt have plus arm strength either. And at his age, heโs likely to get worse instead of better.
Total
Willingham really only has two things to offer: patience and power. Fortunately, heโsย veryย good at the first thing and still good enough at the second thing. As such, he has enough to make up for the reality that running the bases and playing defense are not his specialties.ย
46. Torii Hunter, Detroit Tigers
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Hitting
Torii Hunter is still doing his late-career aggressive guy thing, seeing few pitches and swinging at over half the pitches he does see. That heโs a good line-drive/ground-ball hitter with good coverage of the zone allows him to get away with it pretty well. His bigger problem is that he hasn't beenย the bad-ball hitter he was in 2012 and 2013. Without those extra hits, what he does in the zone only matters so much.
Power
Hunterโs transition over the last couple of years has rendered him a lesser fly-ball hitter, but his power could be in worse shape. He still hasย pretty good popย to both left and right field, and heโs helpedย keep his pull power aliveย by hitting the ball in the air that wayย more often. As a result, heโs kept himself in the discussion of 15-20-homer corner outfielders with good doubles power on the side.
Baserunning
Like it was in 2013, itโs apparent that Hunterโs too old for stolen bases. He only has the goods for a couple over a full season, and without good efficiency at that. Fortunately, heโs still rounding the bases well. Hisย 52 XBT%ย is virtually the same as last yearโs rate, and heโs further helped himself by running into much fewer outs on theย basepathsย than he normally does.
Defense
The defensive metricsย said it was clear that Hunter couldnโt hack it in right field in 2013. They say itโs even more clear this year, and understandably so. He canโt accelerate quickly, nor does he have nearly the closing speed he used to have. As a result, he no longer has nearly the range he once had. With the way his defense is trending, heโd frankly be better off at DH.
Total
As aggressive as his approach has become, Hunter can still hit and hit for some power. He can also still run the bases reasonably well. He just canโt do these things quite well enough to make up for his horrid right field defense.
45. Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies
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Hitting
Things look good when you notice Charlie Blackmon hasย made more contactย than in 2013 and that heโs spent 2014 aiming line drives and ground ballsย in all directions. But then you notice he hasnโt stopped being an overly aggressive hacker, that heโs beenย more prone to whiffย as the season has progressed and that heโsย basically been uselessย away from Coors Field. Thatโs when you wonder just how good he really is.
Power
The power Blackmon has shown is a bit more believable. Heโs definitely been helped by Coors Field, but heโs also helped himself by hitting the ballย in the airย more and also hitting the ball in the airย to right fieldย more. The catch is that right field isย clearly the only directionย that Blackmon has any real power. Take that and combine it with the Coors Field caveat, and his power doesn't come off looking so great.
Baserunning
Blackmonโs hitting is suspect, but at least he runs pretty well. Well enough to give himself a fair shot at 30 steals by the end of the year, anyway, which is good stuff for a corner outfielder. Itโs too bad that he hasnโt stolen his bases with much efficiency, however, and he also has a highly disappointingย 34 XBT%. Heโs a goodย baserunner, but short of great.ย
Defense
Blackmon has played left and right field in 2014, andย the defensive metricsย have him rated as roughly average in both spots, which makes sense. He doesnโt have the arm for left or right field, and he doesnโt have the range youโd expect aย former full-time center fielderย to have. His speed is fine, but he can make things overly adventurous with how he tracks fly balls.
Total
Blackmonโs early-season breakout happened aย longย time ago, and itโs hard to notice how heโs as much, or more, of a product of Coors Field as the next Rockies hitter. But because he can run the bases, hit for a little power and at least play passable defense in left and right field, heโs hardly useless.
44. Alex Rios, Texas Rangers
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Hitting
Up until a nagging thumb injury finally got him shut down, Alex Rios was putting himself in good position to hit for average on balls in play. His line-drive rates were up, and he was doing a decent, if not spectacular, job ofย spreading his grounders around. Itโs just too bad he reallyย needsย to hit like this. He hadย gotten more aggressiveย and more likely to swing and miss, and walks were as small a part of his game as ever. It adds up to a classic case of a hitter who's not as good as his batting average (.280) indicates.
Power
With Riosโ fly-ball rate goingย nowhere but down, itโs only becoming tougher for him to keep his power up. He has subpar power to offer now, and itโs only likely to get worse. His raw power isnโt totally gone, however. He was still able toย drive the ballย up the middle and to left field, buying himself a decent number ofย doubles and triplesย in the process. Itโs not good power, but it could be worse.
Baserunning
After pulling a 42-steal season out of nowhere in 2013, Riosโย baserunningย went back to normal this season. He only made it to 17 steals, and not with good efficiency. He alsoย dropped his XBT%ย from 49 to 42. Heโs still a solidย baserunnerย relative to other corner outfielders, but what heโs done this year is probably the new normal given that heโs now past 33 years old.
Defense
The defensive metricsย were rating Rios as a below-average right fielder. Given that the lack of acceleration he has on theย basepathsย also applies to his defense at times, and his playmaking ability indeed isnโt what it used to be, this isn't surprising. But he can still move relatively well for a right fielder, and the metrics were underrating his solid arm strength. Heโs still at least average on defense.
Total
Rios doesnโt do anything well anymore, but he doesnโt really do anything that poorly either. He can still handle the bat and provide some power, and he can hold his own on theย basepathsย and in right field. Heโs not a good player anymore, but heโs at least playable.
43. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds
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Hitting
Not that Jay Bruce was ever the most advanced hitter, but heโs looked lost at the plate in 2014. Heโs been chasing more pitchesย out of the zone, hasnโt been able to hitย hard or off-speed stuffย on a lineย like he did in 2013 and hasย had no answerย for a career-high rate ofย low-and-away pitches. He gets a slight pass because of hisย bum left knee, but whatโs happened still isnโt encouraging.
Power
Bruceโs bad knee hasnโt killed his power, but itโs definitely limited it. He hasnโt been able to hit the ballย in the airย at his normal rate, and heโs only been able to hit the ball with authority toย his pull side. He is a pull-power hitter, granted, but letโs not forget that he could give the ball a good jolt the other wayย last year. One can only hope that a return to good health in 2015 will allow that power to come back.
Baserunning
One thing Bruceโs bad knee hasnโt stopped him from doing is stealing bases. This season has seen him surpass double-digit steals for the first time, and with pretty good efficiency. But while thatโs a good look, heโs only managingย a 35ย XBT%ย thatโs below his career norm of 44 percent. Even with the steals, baserunningย still only looks like a modest strength for Bruce.
Defense
The defensive metricsย say Bruce has had a rough season defensively, and heโd agree. He recently told MLB.comย he hasnโt been able to get the kind of jumps he usually gets, which is discouraging knowing that he doesnโt have closing speed to lean on. Itโs a good thing his strong arm has still been working, and itโs frankly hard to imagine Bruceโs defense continuing to be downright poor going forward.
Total
The term โlost seasonโ definitely applies with Bruce. He had to go in for surgery on his left knee early on, and frankly has paid the price for rushing back from it. Still, itโs a silver lining that heโs at least been a solid power producer andย baserunner, and you have to figure that other things wonโt continue to be as awful.
42. Shin-Soo Choo, Texas Rangers
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Hitting
It wasnโt Shin-Sooย Chooโsย approach that was off beforeย his season ended early. He was stillย a hugely discerning hitterย who took his walks. His struggles stemmed more from how pitchers wentย right after himย with hard stuff in the zone and how he never gave them a legitย reason to stop. At least he remained aย line-drive/ground-ball hitterย who couldย aim the ball well. So, no, his bat isnโt totally a lost cause.
Power
Itโs hard enough to hit for power consistently when youโre not hitting the ball in the air that often. Itโs even harder to do it when youโre basicallyย not hitting the ballย in the airย to your pull side. Really the only thing that keptย Chooโsย power afloat this year was how he could still give the ballย a jolt to left-centerย for extra-base hits. Thatโs a good talent for a lefty hitter to have, so his power isnโt a lost cause either.
Baserunning
Chooย came down with some ankle soreness early on in the season, and you can look back and wonder now if it ever went away. After topping 20 steals four times between 2009 and 2013, he only made it to three before his season ended. On the bright side, at least he upped his XBT% from 40 to 50. Even as his baserunningย got less flashy, it didnโt necessarily get weak.
Defense
After rating him as a disaster in center field in 2013,ย the defensive metricsย didnโt likeย Chooโsย defense in left and right field in 2014 much better. That his elbow hurt his throwing was a factor, but aside from that is how he struggles with fly balls. Heโs often slow to get after them and can take adventurous routes once heโs on the move. It would not be surprising if the Rangers kept playing him mainly at DH.
Total
In just a few short months,ย Chooย has gone from one of the jewels of the free-agent class to a lesser hitter who may now be damaged goods. But at the very least, one thing he still have going forward is his terrific batting eye and solid opposite-field power. Those arenโt bad consolation prizes.
41. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles
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Hitting
Nick Markakisย can offer the best of both worlds, as heโs bothย a disciplined hitterย and one of theย elite contact hittersย in the game today. That he has the bat control toย spray the ballย in any direction is a bonus. That leaves only two catches: Heโs a modest line-drive artist, and heโs no more dangerousย on pitches away from himย than he was in 2013. Such things keep him from being a truly great hitter.
Power
A slightly elevated fly-ball rate has helpedย Markakisโ power bounce back from a poor showing in 2013, and heโs generallyย driven the ball wellย to right and left-center. But his power is still mediocre by corner outfield standards. It doesnโt help that balls in the airย to right fieldย havenโt been much more frequent than they were in 2013, and his opposite-field powerย is absent for a third time in four years.
Baserunning
Thatย Markakisย is no longer the base stealer he once was can be forgiven now that heโs past 30, but his descent into a true station-to-station runner is harder to forgive. He only hasย a 17 XBT%ย this season. Thatโs well below last yearโs mark of 34 percent, which he got in part because he went first to third 12 times in 47 chances. This year: four times in 48 chances. Yeesh.
Defense
The defensive metricsย are convinced that itโs been a long time sinceย Markakisย was a truly terrific right fielder, and theyโre split on what to think of him this year. That he has a great arm isnโt in dispute, but his playmaking ability with his legs and glove is. Rightfully so, as his habit of getting bad reads and running indirect routes limits his range and turns too many easy catches into tough catches.
Total
The wayย Markakisย combines good discipline with a superior contact ability helps him stay consistent, and his power has made a slight comeback. He still has subpar power for a corner outfielder, however, and he doesnโt have much to offer on theย basepathsย or (despite his reputation) on defense.
40. Rajai Davis, Detroit Tigers
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Hitting
Rajai Davis is stillย too aggressive, hisย line-drive rate is downย and heโs trending in theย wrong direction against fastballs. That heโs at least making more contact is definitely helping, however, and his return to a more extreme ground-ball style is working because of his speed and his ability toย aim the ball. Thus, heโs allowed himself to continue being what he is: a solid, if not quite good or great, hitter.
Power
That Davis is hitting for solid power this year despite fewer line drives and fly balls might seem fluky. And it is. He really only hasย power to his pull side, and heโs actually not giving himself more chances to tap into it. His line drives and fly balls to left field areย down from where they wereย in 2012 and 2013. Heโs benefited from some good fortune around the foul pole. Take it away, and his power looks human.
Baserunning
This is the sixth year in a row that Davis has topped 30 stolen bases, but the catch is that he still gets caught a lot. This makes it five years out of six with double-digit caught-stealings, and you have to figure that things wonโt improve after he turns 34. Still, youโll take his stolen base habit for a corner outfielder, and youโll also take something even remotely close toย his 67 XBT%.
Defense
Davis has mainly found himself playing left field in 2014, and heโs failed to impressย the defensive metricsย with his glove. Theyโre likely overstating his lack of playmaking skills, but maybe not by much. He doesnโt have a great arm, and his range isnโt as good as his speed dictates it should be. Davis can be too casual after fly balls on occasion, and it can cost him.
Total
Davis has overachieved somewhat in the power department this year, and heโs really not as good a defender as he should be with his athleticism. But what he can do is get on base at a decent rate and then put his legs to good use. The combination of those talents is worth something.
39. Gerardo Parra, Milwaukee Brewers
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Hitting
Gerardo Parra is anย aggressive hitterย with a tendency to expand the zone. That keeps him from drawing walks, and heโsย never made up for itย by being a good bad-ball hitter. Moreover, he should be a platoon player with hisย numbers against lefty pitching. What can be said in his defense, though, is that heโs actually becoming aย better contact hitterย andย aย better line-drive hitter.ย
Power
For a guy who has the look and size of a mere contact hitter, itโs actually surprising how much power Parra has. It makes limited appearances due to his small fly-ball rate, but this is a guy who can hit the ball reasonably well to all fields. Because of that, he can pick upย extra-base hitsย in any direction. He doesnโt have the kind of pop to be a great source of power, but heโs better than he looks.
Baserunning
Because heโs done about as much harm as good stealing bases the last two seasons, Parra really should consider giving it up altogether. Heโs not bad at rounding the bases, however. Hisย 49 XBT%ย is good stuff by corner outfield standards, and the problem he had running into outs once upon a time is now a distant memory. Even if he does stop stealing bases, he can be a solid baserunner.
Defense
Parra was arguably the best defensive outfielder in baseball in 2013, so itโs surprising to seeย the defensive metricsย rating him so poorly in 2014. Heโs not actually that bad, though. One problem is that he hasnโt been able to squeeze as much value out of his arm, which is still terrific. And while there are better fly-ball catchers than him, the eye test says he still has closing speed to finish off good routes. Add in the ability to play all three spots well, and you have a dandy of an outfielder.
Total
Your opinion of Parraโs 2014 season might hinge on the opinion of the defensive metrics. If youโre with me and think theyโre not doing Parraโs defense proper justice, then you should view him as a very good defensive outfielder who also packs a decent bat.
38. Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Hitting
Thereโs nothing really wrong with Gregory Polancoโs approach. Heโs beenย reasonably patient and disciplined, and with a decent contact habit. Heโs also shown he can be aย line-drive/ground-ball hitterย with a targetย on all fields. More worrisome is hisย spotty zone coverageย against hard stuff, especially on the inner thirdย against right-handers. Thatโs the danger of his long swing, and it's something heโll need to adjust for.
Power
That Polanco is a modest source of fly balls is one thing holding his power back, but his biggest limitation is how heโs only shown an ability to hit for powerย to right field. Even in that direction, well-hit balls haveย been somewhat infrequent. He definitely has more power than heโs shown, but it may not show up consistently until he establishes his identity as a hitter first.
Baserunning
Polanco has run himself into a handful ofย outs at third base, whichย stands out as in need of fixing. Aside from that, hisย baserunningย has been largely positive. Even with a modest OBP, he stillย entered September with a dozen steals in less than half a seasonโs worth of games. Heโs also working on a 49 XBT%. Looking ahead to a full season, he could be a 25-30-steal guy with good aggressiveness on the side.
Defense
The defensive metricsย havenโt liked what theyโve seen from Polanco in right field. They have a gripe. Polancoโs arm has looked good enough for right field, but his fly-ball catching is too much about athleticism at this point. He needs to get better at reading the ball off the bat and running more direct routes so he can turn his good speed into the best range possible.
Total
Polanco was something of an overnight sensation when he first arrived on the scene in June, but then all his shortcomings were put on display in subsequent months. Still, on the whole heโs done enough to show that his potential isnโt a total myth. Though he needs some work, he still looks like he could be a solid-hitting, solid-running and solid-fielding right fielder.
37. Scott Van Slyke, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Hitting
Though heโsย not entirely a platoon player, Scott Vanย Slykeโsย primary talent is crushing lefties. He also has aย terrific batting eyeย and has actually been able toย hit breaking balls hardย for a change. Where things get iffy is in how he still has a very hard time with right-handed slow stuff, and how he needs toย get his arms extendedย to be really dangerous. And yes, heโllย definitely strike out.
Power
Another thing Vanย Slykeย can do is get the ball in the air, as heโs been anย extreme fly-ball hitterย the last two years. He also tends to hit his fly balls very hard, with hisย main power alleysย being center and left-center. As weโre seeing this year, this gives him the goods to be a source of home runs even on a part-time basis. Itโs too bad he lacks a consistent line-drive habit to complement his dingers with doubles.
Baserunning
Donโt go looking for stolen bases from Vanย Slyke.ย Regardless of playing time, he only has the goods to manage a couple of steals here and there. Heโs also nothing special in terms of aggressiveness, posting aย modest 39 XBT%ย this season. As far as corner outfielders go, he fits the mold of a station-to-station runner.
Defense
Though heโs logged some time in center field, the Dodgers have played Vanย Slykeย mainly in left and right.ย The defensive metricsย rate him well at both positions, but thereโs some overachieving going on. Heย has long strides that allow him to cover a decent amount of ground, but his reads and routes can both be adventurous. He also doesnโt have much of an arm. His best (and arguably only) asset is his versatility.
Total
Though Vanย Slykeย has probably been a littleย tooย productive this year, heโs at least established himself as a good guy to have around for his ability to crush lefties, provide some power and play passable defense at two positions.
36. Corey Dickerson, Colorado Rockies
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Hitting
Corey Dickerson is far from perfect at the plate. The lefty swinger is too much of aย Coors Field product, he has aย big platoon splitย and heโs aย much too aggressive hitterย who whiffs too much. Itโs not all bad, though. Heโs showing that heโs aย darn good line-drive hitter, and that he also hasย the bat controlย to poke liners and ground balls wherever. Take away his faults, and youโre still left with a decent enough hitter.
Power
Dickersonโs having a very strong season in this department, partially because he hits the ball in the air so much. And though hisย oppoย power plays betterย at homeย than onย the road, you are left with the impression of good power when looking at hisย batted-ball map. And good luck if he pulls a fly ball, as thereโs aboutย a 50-50 chanceย it will go out. Coors Field or no Coors Field, he packs some real power.
Baserunning
Dickerson has teased potential for double-digit steals in a full-season setting, andย his 58 XBT%ย is darn good stuff for a corner outfielder. But when youโre barely breaking even with your stolen base percentage and youโre otherwise running into double-digit outs on theย basepaths, you have a lot to clean up.
Defense
The Rockies have played Dickerson mainly in left field in 2014, andย the defensive metricsย havenโt liked what theyโve seen. His arm hasnโt been much of a threat to anyone, nor is it likely to be. And though his athleticism is good enough for left, he really needs to work on getting better breaks on the ball. Until he does, heโll be very limited defensively.
Total
Dickersonโs season doesnโt look so great if you look at what heโs done on the bases and on defense while also focusing on his home/road and lefty/righty splits. But underneath it all is a guy who really does make some pretty good contact. Maybe his bat isn't as dangerous as his numbers make it look, but it is dangerous all the same.
35. Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay Rays
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Hitting
The lefty-swinging Kevinย Kiermaierย is aย platoon player with a platoon split, so you have to take his production for what itโs worth. And given how easily righties have beaten himย with breaking ballsย and how heโs really only been dangerous in theย middle of the zone, itโs not worth much. At least he has aย reasonably disciplined approachย and some semblance of anย opposite-field approach.ย
Power
Another thingย Kiermaierย has is anย extreme ground-ball habit. That and whatโs likely to be part-time playing duty going forward will make it tough for him to hit for power. At the same time, I wouldnโt say he has a "low" fly-ball rate, exactly, and heโsย displayed an abilityย to drive the ball to both left and right field. Heโs probably overachieved as a power source in 2014, but he doesnโt look like a slap hitter either.
Baserunning
Kiermaierย has good speed, but he wasnโt a prolific base stealer in the minors. It doesnโt look like heโs going to be one in the majors either. What he does have, however, is aย 59 XBT%. Thatโs good stuff, and it looks even better when you notice that heโs gone first to third more than half the times heโs had a chance. Even if he doesnโt steal bases, thereโs value in aggressiveness like that.
Defense
The defensive metricsย haveย Kiermaierย rated as a superb defensive right fielder, and anyone whoโs seen him play should agree. He brings center fielder speed and range to right field, but his best asset is the sheer energy that allows him to make impressive plays. And though he hasnโt shown it off much, his arm is good too. This leaves his status as a part-time player the only thing to hold against him.
Total
Kiermaier hasย only established himself as a good platoon player, and one whoโs overachieved offensively at that. In all likelihood, his bat isnโt going to be how he earns his checks going forward. But his glove? Oh, that glove. Itโs something else.
34. Norichika Aoki, Kansas City Royals
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Hitting
Norichika Aoki does a fine job of combiningย good disciplineย with one of theย best contact abilitiesย in the league. His problem has typically been makingย goodย contact, but less so this year. Hisย line-drive rateย has reached a new high. Take that and his career-high ground-ball rate andย clearly good bat control, and you get a guy whoseย second-half numbersย are more reflective of his talent than his first-half numbers.
Power
This is the big catch when it comes to Aokiโs solid hitting. He basically doesnโt hit fly balls, and that makes it extremely tough for him to hit for power. Indeed, so does his lack of raw power. The only thing that can be said in his defense is that his bat control does give himย good accessย to the foul lines, which he can use to pick up doubles and triples.
Baserunning
The 32-year-old Aoki is showing he can still do double-digit steals, but heโs unfortunately also showing that efficiency still eludes him. The good news is that heโs really cleaned up the problem he had with running into outs and has tacked on aย career-best 43 XBT%ย to boot. Notably, heโs gone first to third a third of the time heโs had a chance. As such, hisย baserunningย has actually improved.
Defense
The defensive metricsย are split on Aokiโs defense in right field, but the one viewing him as above average has the better idea. He still has his good arm, and he has enough athleticism to make up for his occasionally adventurous routes to fly balls. Heโs probably not the best right fielder on his own teamโLorenzo Cain plays a mean right when heโs not playing centerโbut Aokiโs pretty good.
Total
The main attraction with Aoki is the bat control that allows him to hit for average, but he can also offer solidย baserunningย and defense in right field. The only thing he can't do better than most right fielders is hit for power. H
33. Jorge Soler, Chicago Cubs (Prospect)
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Hitting
Jorge Solerโsย approach has been more polished than expected as a professional, as he has demonstrated the ability to hit when behind in the count and shown good pitch recognition despite his lack of experience. The right-handed batterโs tendency to get in his hacks means his batting average will likely depend on his BABIP, at least until his walk rate improves.
Power
At 6โ4โ, 215 pounds,ย Solerย is a physically strong right-handed hitter with a mature frame that requires little projection. With blinding bat speed and an explosive swing, the ball absolutelyย jumps off Solerโs bat. Meanwhile, his extension and lift after contact generate exceptional backspin carry and suggest the potential for multiple 25-plus home runs in his prime.
Baserunning
Despite his muscular build,ย Solerย is an above-average runner who moves well on both sides of the ball.ย He wonโt steal many bases, butย he can really moveย at full stride.
Defense
In addition toย Solerโsย aforementioned speed,ย he has the ideal profile of a big league right fielder with average range andย plus arm strength. He may lose a step or two with physical development, but itโs hard to see him ever moving off the position.
Total
Solerย claimed the Cubsโ right field gig following his call-up, with the 22-year-oldย showingย all five tools and an impressive overall feel for the game. If he comes close to reaching his offensive ceiling,ย Solerย should offer All-Star-caliber production in his prime seasons, batting .270-plus with roughly 25 home runs and double-digit stolen bases from the heart of the Cubs lineup.
32. Dustin Ackley, Seattle Mariners
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Hitting
Dustin Ackley has gottenย less passive at the dishย without sacrificing his strong contact habit. Heโs also continued to makeย solid contact against slow stuff. The catch is that heโs still not as goodย a line-drive hitterย as he should be. And even in hisย second-half surge,ย his zone coverageย has been lacking. Heโs a better hitter now than he was a year ago, but he should still be considered a work in progress.
Power
Ackleyโs power hasย experienced a rebirth, and not out of nowhere. Heโs helped himself not only by hitting more fly balls, but by pullingย the ball in the airย more often. To boot, he really hasย better powerย to the left-center gap thanย his resultsย indicate. The obligatory catch is that too many of his fly balls float harmlessly to left field, but his newfound approach is good enough for at least average-ishย power.
Baserunning
Ackleyโs not a spectacularย baserunner, but thereโs value in how he mixes cautiousness with just enough aggressiveness. Heโs shown once again this year that he can at least flirt with double-digit steals, and heโs tacked on a decent enoughย 42 XBT%. That he's made only one out at second or third in the last two seasons is the cherry on top.
Defense
The defensive metricsย had Ackley pegged as an above-average defender at second base, and itโs the same story with his defense in left field. They recognize he has a weak arm for the position, but his range is fine. Though he can make things interesting when he goes back on fly balls, heโs good coming in on balls and has goodย foot speedย for a corner outfielder.
Total
Even with his strong second half, I wouldnโt say Ackley has put it all together yet. But at the least, his bat and power are trending in the right direction, and heโs also a solidย baserunnerย and defender. Look for him to be a fairly well-rounded player going forward.
31. Brock Holt, Boston Red Sox
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Hitting
Brock Holt has spent 2014 establishing himself as aย very discerning swingerย who makes a lot of contact. And itโs average-friendly contact, with lots ofย line drives and ground ballsย that canย go to any field. If he has a weakness, itโs that heโs only shown himself to be aย mistake fastball hitterย and that he canโt hitย right-handed breaking stuff. Such weaknesses donโt make him a poor hitter, but they could make life tough.
Power
That fly balls are relatively rare for Holt limits his power potential, and what little home run power he has only goesย to his pull sideย anyway. Line-drive power is more his thing, and he has aย decent amount of itย in the gaps and toward the left field corner. Even with a good collection of doubles and triples, though, the power he has to offer is nothing special by corner outfield standards.
Baserunning
Holtโs one of those guys who can show that you donโt need great speed to be a greatย baserunner. Heโs topped double-digit steals with good efficiency and has also racked upย a 50 XBT%ย with few mistakes on the side. Over a full seasonโs worth of games, youโre looking at a potential 15-20-steal guy with good aggressiveness.
Defense
Holt is here because heโs played more games in corner outfield spots as of this writing, mainly in right field.ย The defensive metricsย say heโs been especially good in right field. And for a guy who didnโt play at all in the outfieldย in the minors, he has indeed looked surprisingly like a natural reading and tracking fly balls, and he hasnโt been shy about making aggressive plays. Even if the Red Sox choose to play him elsewhere in 2015, thatโs the beauty of Brock Holtโs glove: Elsewhere is anywhere.
Total
The only thing really spectacular about Holt is that he can do a little bit of everything. He can hit a little bit, he can hit for a little bit of power, he can run the bases a little and he can play a little defense no matter where you put him. When you combine all that "little" into one thing, it looks like a lot.
30. Josh Reddick, Oakland A's
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Hitting
Josh Reddick isย useless against left-handersย and anย extreme fly-ball hitter, so his hitting potential is limited. That righties can easilyย getย whiffs on high hard stuffย limits it even further. However, that his approachย isnโt out of controlย says he sees righties well, and theyย havenโt had any solid optionsย for getting him out. Though not a dominant platoon hitter, heโs good enough.
Power
Reddickโs extreme fly-ball style means his power potential at least has a decent floor, but heโs also pretty good at making sure his balls in the air count. Heย doesnโt tend to missย when he pulls the ball to right field, and he also has some extra-base pop up the middle and to left-center. The wrist and knee injuries heโs battled in the last two years havenโt helped his power, but they havenโt killed it either.
Baserunning
In light of the problems heโs had with his right knee, itโs not surprising to see Reddick taking it easier on theย basepaths. Heโs not stealing bases, for one, and heโsย watched his XBT% fallย from the 50 percent neighborhood to a relatively less spectacular 41 percent. Itโs a stretch to call him a station-to-station runner, but heโs going to be something closer to that as long as his knee is banged up.
Defense
Reddickโs bad knee hasnโt done much, if anything, to diminish his defense.ย The defensive metricsย still have him as a clearly above-average defender. This is despite the fact theyโre not giving him proper credit for his terrific arm, and he has more range than the typical right fielder too. He doesnโt have blinding speed, but he gets after balls quickly and tracks them very well.
Total
Reddick is only of use against right-handed pitching, and his power likely isnโt ever returning to its 2012 level. But he still has good pop to offer in addition to excellent defense in right field, so donโt be quick to disregard his value.
29. Curtis Granderson, New York Mets
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Hitting
Curtis Grandersonโs approach is the sharpest itโs been since 2011. Heโs toned down his aggressivenessย and has reversed a swing-and-miss habit that was getting worse. It adds up to more walks, fewer strikeouts and more balls in play. Itโs too bad his average potential is still limited by anย extreme fly-ball habit,ย poor zone coverageย and a bad tendency toย roll soft stuff overย to the right side of the infield.
Power
In theory,ย Grandersonโsย high fly-ball habit should be translating into more power. So should the reality that heโs hitting the ball in theย air to right fieldย more frequently. It looks like the problem is Citi Field. His home run-per-fly-ball rate thereย is much lowerย than it is on the road, and heโsย clearly lost a fewย to right-center. As such, yes,ย moving in the fences againย could conceivably really doย Grandersonย a favor.
Baserunning
Grandersonโsย days of stealing 20-plus bases are in the past. At his age, threatening double digits is as good as itโs going to get. Thatโs acceptable for a corner outfielder, however, and theย 41 XBT%ย Granderson is working on while running into very few outs on the side is a good mix. Heโs not theย baserunnerย he used to be, but heโs still good.
Defense
The defensive metricsย are split onย Grandersonโsย defense in right field, but the one that favors him as slightly above average probably has the better idea. His arm is too weak for right field, and he still looks uncomfortable going back on the ball a lot of the time, but he has good speed that gives him pretty good range for a right fielder.
Total
We can doย Grandersonย the courtesy of saying that his power is better than his numbers indicate, and that he can play at least a solid right field with solidย baserunningย on the side. But his bat is still very much prone to inconsistency, and itโs hard to expect that to be fixed at this point.
28. Carl Crawford, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Hitting
The more measured and contact-oriented approach Carl Crawford had in 2013 has beenย replacedย with his old swing- and whiff-happy approach. But this can be forgiven on the grounds that he hasnโt gotten enough luck to go with his mix of ground balls and aย career-best line-drive rate, which heโs been goodย at spreading around. His hot hitting since the beginning of August is him collecting on some overdue good luck.
Power
Itโs not easy to hit for power when youโre forgoing fly balls, and itโs even harder when youโre justย not driving the ballย that consistently. Crawford's doing a good job of picking his spots, though. Heโs hitting the ball in the air to right field atย a more frequent rateย and has recapturedย some of his old efficiencyย at getting the ball over the fence. Crawford hasn't lost his power just yet.
Baserunning
Crawford doesnโt run as fast or play as much as he used to, but heโs showing this year that he's far from done being an asset on the basepaths. Heโs topped 20 steals for the first time since 2010 and has tacked onย a 47 XBT%. Factor in how he hasnโt madeย anyย outs on the bases outside of caught-stealingsย and pickoffs, and you have a 33-year-old whoโs not ready to go quietly.
Defense
The defensive metricsย arenโt liking Crawfordโs left field defense as much as they liked it in 2013. Itโs frankly hard for him to be much better than average with subpar arm strength and unpredictable range. His range is unpredictable not because of his speed, but because of his reads and routes. He too often puts himself in a position where he has to improvise at the last moment to make the play.
Total
Crawford still doesnโt have the goods to live up to his big contract, but he really hasnโt tailed off that badly from his solid 2013 season. His hitting and power are hanging in there, and heโs shown he can still run the bases and play at least a decent left field.
27. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
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Hitting
Injuries have limited our look at Ryan Zimmerman, but what heโs shown has been positive. Heโs displayed a betterย blend of patience and contact, mainly thanks to how well heโsย laid offย slow pitches. Heโs also continued doing a solid jobย hitting line drives, and he deserves better than hisย subdued averageย on those. It may not be reflected in his numbers, but Zimmerman has made some improvements at the dish.
Power
Another thing Zimmerman has done isย hit the ball in the airย more often. And though weโre once again dealing with a small sample, heโs also continued to show that he has the power toย drive the ballย to any part of the yard. Yet it is hardย notย to worry about his power going forward. After adding a bad thumb injury and a bad hamstring injury to a growing list of injuries, his power potential comes with a question mark.
Baserunning
Zimmermanโs typically a pretty goodย baserunnerย for a corner infield typeโmore on this in just a secondโbut not this year. His stolen base production has been absent, and heโsย dropped his XBT%ย from 44 percent to 30 percent. Now that he has a couple more serious injuries on his track record while he also happens to be pushing 30, this could be the new normal for him.
Defense
This is assuming the Nationals are done playing Zimmerman at third base, which they should be with his bad right shoulder impacting his throwing so much. Thoughย the defensive metricsย didnโt get much time to evaluate him, itโs fair to say his throwing is going to be a problem in left field too. Aside from that, though, he showed he can handle it. He reacted surprisingly well on fly balls, and his ability to close on fly balls is really no worse than that of an average left fielder.
Total
Zimmermanโs future on defense is a good question, and you have to wonder about how his health problems are going to impact his power andย baserunningย going forward. Itโs not all bad, though. When heโs been healthy, he showed that he can still hit and that heโs surprisingly competent in left field.
26. Seth Smith, San Diego Padres
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Hitting
You have to take Seth Smithโs 2014 season for what itโs worth knowing that heโs been usedย strictly in a platoon role. That said, props are in order for how heโs made himself into something of an ideal platoon hitter. Heโs shown off aย very disciplined approachย with a very strong contact habit,ย hit everything harder, made good useย of the opposite fieldย and demolishedย mistakes down the middle.
Power
Smithโs power has returned to itsย pre-2013 level, and not by accident. Heโs back to making sure his balls in the air to right fieldย donโt miss, and heโs helped himself there by sendingย more balls in that direction. Heโs not totally without power the other way too, as he can poke balls in the left-center gap and down the left-field lineย for extra-base hits. Itโs power thatโsย availableย on a limited basis, but itโs good power.
Baserunning
Smith stole 10 bases in a season once, but thatโs likely not happening again. His baserunning value has to come from how well he rounds the bases, and heโs nothing special at it.ย His 44 XBT%ย is no better than last year, and next to it lies the fact that heโs run into more outs on theย basepathsย than he has since 2011.
Defense
The Padres have played Smith in left and right field, andย the defensive metricsย are split on the defense heโs played at both positions. The idea that heโs at least average rings surprisingly true given that he spent much of his time in Oaklandย DHโing. He doesnโt have a good arm or good speed, but he breaks after balls well and runs reasonably direct routes. That he can do this in both left and right is a bonus.
Total
Smith is merely a humble platoon outfielder, but also better than your garden-variety platoon outfielder. He hasnโt given righties many options for getting him out, heโs revived his power and heโs played surprisingly passable defense in both corner outfield spots.
25. Michael Cuddyer, Colorado Rockies
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Hitting
Injuries have cut Michaelย Cuddyerโsย season down to a small sample size, but his bat still looks like a weapon. Heโs anย aggressive swinger, yet he doesnโt have too bad a whiff habit, and he deals largely inย line drives and ground ballsย that heโsย good at aiming. Heโs also improved even moreย as a bad-ball hitter. There are just two catches: He doesnโt walk much, and heโs reallyย needed Coors Fieldย more than he did in 2013.
Power
Dealing mainly in line drives and ground balls shouldnโt leave much room for power, but Cuddyer is something of an exception. He simply doesnโt miss home runsย when he hits the ball in the air to left field, and he alsoย has the popย to poke the ball over the right fielderโs head on a regular basis. If thereโs a question after this year, however, itโs how much his health is going to allow him to add to his power.
Baserunning
Given the problems heโs had with his hamstrings, itโs not surprising to seeย Cuddyerย taking it easy stealing bases and rounding the bases. Hisย XBT% has droppedย from 52 in 2013 to 40 this year. This is admittedly small-sample-size stuff, but itโs likely prophetic knowing thatย Cuddyerย will exit 2014 as a 35-year-old with a longer medical history than the one he had had before.
Defense
The defensive metricsย havenโt had ample time to evaluateย Cuddyerโsย defense in 2014, so weโll make it easy on ourselves by putting it this way: Thereโs no way heโs gotten any better. He has a decent arm for right field, but his range is limited by slow breaks and his lack ofย foot speed. At his age and with an injury-marred season fresh in his wake, thatย foot speedย probably isnโt getting better.
Total
Even with the Coors Field factor noted,ย Cuddyerย can definitely hit and hit for a little power. Heโll be a valuable player as long as he can do these things. Butย baserunningย and defense are both question marks, and likely even more so at his age and with his recent injury history.
24. Michael Saunders, Seattle Mariners
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Hitting
Michael Saunders hasย never been more discerningย or better at making contact, which are two ideal steps forward. Heโs also working on a strongย line-drive rate, and heโsย been moreย thanย just a mistake hitterย for a change. Which leads us to the gripes: Heโs been way too lucky on ground balls, and heโs unfortunately regressedย against slow stuff.ย He'sย getting better, but heโs still not there just yet.
Power
Saunders hits the ball in the air often enough to be a solid power source, and a couple of upper-body injuries havenโt stopped him fromย giving the ball a rideย to center and right field this year. What he hasnโt been able to do is drive the ball the other way to left field, which isnโt out of the ordinary. Heโs had his moments, but hisย opposite-field powerย is largely inconsistent. That limits his overall power potential.
Baserunning
Saunders can typically be counted on for double-digit steals, but heโs not going to make it there this year. Given the way heโs trending, it will certainly be surprising if we see him top 20 again like he did in 2012. This yearโs silver lining, however, is how heโs managed aย rock-solid 60 XBT%ย without many mistakes on the side. If he can repeat that, hisย baserunningย will be fine.
Defense
Saunders is definitely a better fit for right field than he is for center, asย the defensive metricsย rate him as a big asset despite his limited playing time. Theyโre not wrong. He has the ideal combination of good speed and long strides to cover ground, giving him more range than most right fielders. And though the metrics donโt show it, he has enough arm for right field too.
Total
Injuries have taken a bite out of Saundersโ 2014 season, but heโs quietly been pretty good when he has been able to play. Heโs improved his hitting, provided some power and played a very strong right field, the combination of which makes him a well-rounded player.
23. Marlon Byrd, Philadelphia Phillies
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Hitting
The key for Marlon Byrd is to simply hit the ball hard. Heโs done that pretty well the last two years, posting solidย line-drive ratesย and maintainingย high averages on ground balls. Then thereโs what he can do when he gets the ball in the air. But the trade-off for this hard contact is the reality that contact is infrequent. Byrd swings,ย chasesย andย whiffsย as much as anyone. With habits like those, consistency is not his strong suit.
Power
Byrd is now even more of a fly-ball hitter than he was in 2013. And as mentioned above, good things happen when he gets the ball in the air. He can jolt fly ballsย in any direction, and he has little troubleย getting results. One downside is that hisย line-drive powerย is largely limited to left field, but heโs still one of the best home run-hitting outfielders in the business despite that.
Baserunning
Younger Marlon Byrd was a goodย baserunner. But 37-year-old slugger Marlon Byrd? Not as much. Heโs only going to sneak a few stolen bases here and there, and heโs working onย a 26 XBT%ย thatโs notably seen him go first to third just twice in 29 chances. Given his age and playing style, this is more than likely par for the course from now on.
Defense
Just like in 2013,ย the defensive metricsย view Byrd as an above-average right fielder. Thereโs a slight disagreement between that and the eye test. Byrd can make things interesting, especially when he has to go back on the ball. But he does play right field with energy to spare, and heโs able to boost his range with it. He also has a solid arm for the position. It may not always be pretty, but it works.
Total
Byrdโs approach at the plate is too wild for him to maintain any kind of consistency, and heโs not among theย baserunningย elite. But if all you want is top-notch power and solid defense in right field, he's your guy.
22. Khris Davis, Milwaukee Brewers
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Hitting
The best thing Khris Davis has is his ability to hit the ball hard, which shows up simply in how many well-struck balls are spread around hisย batted-ball map. Take that away, though, and youโre not left with much. Heโs anย aggressive swingerย with a whiff habit, withย off-speedย pitches beingย by farย his biggest weakness. Also, that heโs been so poorย against outside slow pitchesย makes sense given how pull-heavy he is.
Power
Inconsistency can be worth the trouble when thereโs power to go with it. Such is the reality of Davis. He boosts his power by keeping theย line drives and fly ballsย coming, but itโs mainly owed to that hard-hit habit we just discussed. Heโs most dangerous to his pull side with those, but heโs not without an ability toย pick up extra-base hitsย the other way to right field either. All around, his power potential is legit.
Baserunning
Davis wasnโt much of a base stealer in the minors in 2012 and 2013, and he hasnโt been much of one in the majors. From the looks of things, heโs only a candidate to sneak in five-ishย steals in a season. Whatโs better is his 49 XBT%, which is up from a 38 XBT% in a small sample size in 2013. Aggressiveness like that isnโt good enough to make him a greatย baserunner, but it works well enough for solid.
Defense
The defensive metricsย have Davis rated as an above-average defender in left field, and itโs actually something of a surprise that they donโt seem to have the wrong idea. He has better closing speed than youโd expect a slugger to have, and his reads and routes are at least solid for the most part. The one thing he doesnโt have is a good arm for a corner outfield spot, but heโs a good fielder despite that.
Total
Davis has plenty of power and some good defense in left field to offer, two things that combine to make him a pretty solid regular. Just donโt expect his power and defense to come with consistent hitting or much baserunning.
21. Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
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Hitting
Pitchers are still daring Bryce Harper to be a bad-ball hitter, hardlyย throwing him any fastballsย or pitchesย in the strike zone. So far, he hasnโt answered the call, as hisย chase rate has stayed highย whileย his production outside the zoneย has dropped. On the bright side, heโsย making better contactย this year and has the strike zoneย very well covered. Thatโs not a bad way to salvage some consistency.
Power
Powerโs hard to come by when your mechanics are out of whack and then you get hit with a thumb injury. But Harperโs power could be in worse shape and has indeed made a comeback since early August. Relatively speaking, heโs had an easier timeย driving the ballย thanย he was before. That and the reality thatย his fly-ball rateย is trending upward will do for signs of encouragement.
Baserunning
You can still watch Harper run the bases and see a good athlete in action, but thatโs not the same as seeing a goodย baserunnerย in action. Heโs not one of those anymore. Heโs basically stopped stealing bases, heโs run intoย wayย too many outsย and his 41 XBT% is down from 59 percent in 2012 and 57 percent in 2013. Suffice it to say he needs to get back to the drawing board with his baserunning.
Defense
One silver lining of Harperโs trying season is thatย the defensive metricsย are more on board with his left field defense than they were in 2013. That they agree he has a terrific arm for the position is no surprise, and he hasnโt run as poorly in the outfield as he has on theย basepaths. He doesnโt always take the most direct routes, but he can cover ground a lot better than your average corner outfielder.
Total
The 2014 season hasn't been an easy one for Harper, as he's had to battle more injuries and has been largely inconsistent when he's been healthy. Come 2015, he'll still be looking to turn his massive potential into reality. It's a good thing, then, that he's done enough this season to show his potential still lives.
20. Melky Cabrera, Toronto Blue Jays
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Hitting
Before a finger injury ended his season early, Melky Cabrera was still too aggressive to take walks. By his own standards, however, he was actually more selectiveย with a strong contact habit. From the left side, that contact involved moreย line drives and ground ballsย than he was hitting in 2013, and they wereย going all over. Equally impressive is how rightiesย didn'tย really have anythingย to get him out.ย
Power
Cabreraโs power came roaring backย to about where it was before, which is to say he got back to being a solid source of homers and doubles. He didn't need more fly ballsย to do it. He was simply hitting the ball harder than he was in 2013, as a comparison ofย last yearโs batted-ball mapย andย this yearโs batted-ball mapย can vouch. That goes to show how much of a differenceย notย havingย a tumor on your spineย can make, but now the hope going forward is that his bad finger won't cost him any power.
Baserunning
Cabreraโs stolen base ability didn't return along with his power. And with him now over 30, itโs fair to think things will stay this way. Though he hadย a 45 XBT%ย that says heโs not a station-to-station runner just yet, his 10 outs on the bases say he should be. Heโs a subparย baserunnerย now, and he's probably going to stay that way.
Defense
Though they were liking it more than they did in 2013,ย the defensive metricsย were still down on Cabreraโs defense in left field. His saving grace is his strong arm, but itโs only worth so much thanks to his limited range. Keeping it limited are a lack of good speed and occasionally questionable reads and routes. Heโs good enough to be close to average, but not quite enough to actually be considered average.
Total
Good health allowed Cabreraโs bat to come alive again in 2014. He once again displayed a strong contact ability and some good power. Just donโt expect him to boost his OBP with walks, nor should you expect goodย baserunningย or defense.
19. Kole Calhoun, Los Angeles Angels
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Hitting
Kole Calhoun has beenย more aggressiveย and a bit more likely to whiff than he was in 2013, and what was already a weakness against breaking balls hasย only gotten worse. Itโs a good thing, then, that he is aย good line-drive hitterย whoโs dangerous at theย top of the zone. With the latter being an increasingly rare skill, Calhoun therefore has two solid avenues for being a strong batting average merchant.
Power
Given that Calhounโsย home run powerย doesnโt extend far beyond the right field pole, keeping the dingers coming will require maintaining aย pull home run-per-fly-ball rateย (HR/FB) thatโs likely unsustainable. Itโs easier to have faith inย his line-drive power, which stretches pretty much from foul line to foul line. As long as he has that and some home run power, he can handle solid power production.
Baserunning
Since Calhoun doesnโt have base-stealing speed, that heโs only showing single-digit steal potential is no surprise. This doesnโt mean he canโt round the bases, though. Heโs shown withย a 55 XBT%ย that he can do that just fine. That makes it easier to forgive the outs heโs made at second and third, and it at least paints him as a solidย baserunnerย going forward.
Defense
The defensive metricsย are split on Calhounโs defense in right field, with one rating him as above average and the other rating him as roughly average. That one has the better idea. Calhounโs arm is only solid for right field. And though he can save face with acrobatic catches, his reads and routes are all too often on the adventurous side.
Total
Calhounโs best asset is his bat, which produces plenty of line drives and a decent amount of power. His baserunning and defense are less impressive, but not to a point where they cancel out his good hitting. That makes him a pretty strong overall package.
18. George Springer, Houston Astros
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Hitting
George Springer saw aย good number of pitchesย in his rookie season, andย his chase rateย was plenty respectable. He also made it clear that pitchers have to be carefulย with fastballs. That they fed him aย diet of slow stuff, however, says they got the gist. He had aย tough timeย making contact with slow stuff, and he couldn't do much besidesย hit it on the groundย anyway. Until he figures these issues out, consistency is going to elude him.
Power
That Springer didnโt even need half a seasonโs worth of games to get to 20 home runs pretty much says it all about his power. He gives himself plenty of chances to tap into it withย a high fly-ball rate, and he can makeย booming contact in any direction. The only real bummer is how infrequent line drives were in his debut season, but that's a minor gripe in light of his very real 35-40-homer potential.
Baserunning
Springer was a big-timeย baserunningย threat in the minors, and heโs teased that he could at least be a double-digit steal guy in the majors. But thereโs a โmaybeโ that belongs there now, as the Astros might want him taking it easy on the bases after this yearโs leg trouble. If so, hisย baserunningย value will have to stem from his aggressiveness. If he can manageย another 48 XBT%, he should do well enough.
Defense
The defensive metricsย think Springer is at best an average defender in right field, and thatโs a pretty good way to sum things up. His arm and athleticism are both fine for the position, but some fine-tuning is needed. He took some adventurous routes to balls this season, and his collection of errors is owed largely to other mental mistakes. Until he gets these problems squared away, average is the best he can be.
Total
Though a thigh injury ultimately ended it early, Springer did enough in 2014 to show that he has legit power for the big leagues. Now the question is if he can get his hitting and defense to a point where he can be a great all-around player rather than just a great power hitter.
17. Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals
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Hitting
Despite not being theย most disciplined hitter, you can still count on Matt Holliday to take his walks. But while him becoming a better contact hitter this yearย shouldย be a good thing, itโs involved cutting down on his swing and becoming aย lesser line-drive hitterย and more of a guy who specializes inย aiming ground balls. Heโs still a good hitter, but we should wave goodbye to the .300 hitter he used to be.
Power
That Holidayโs power isย trending toward averageย canโt be ignored in light of his ageโheโll be 35 soonโbut this is the second year in a row that heโs usedย a second-half surgeย to show his power isnโt dead yet. Simply hitting more fly ballsย has helped. Heโs also shown offย more power to left fieldย thanย he had been. This surge has to be taken for what itโs worth, but itโs definitely not worth nothing.
Baserunning
He doesnโt look like much of aย baserunnerย and he certainly doesnโt steal bases, but Holliday could actually be worse. Though heโs prone to running into outs, heโs also fixing toย have an XBT%ย around 50 for a second straight year. His size and age give him every reason to be a station-to-station runner, so give him props for refusing to become one.
Defense
The defensive metricsย are rating Holliday as roughly an average defender in left field this year, but that's really giving him too much credit. In addition to a subpar arm, Holliday has at best average range. He has passable speed for a corner outfielder, but reading and tracking fly balls donโt come naturally to him. Heโs going to lose a few throughout the course of a season because of that.
Total
You can put yours truly in the camp that thinks Hollidayโs career is criminally underappreciated. And before we speak of him like heโs dead and buried, heโs still a quality hitter. Itโs just apparent heโs not going to be a superior hitter anymore, and he still canโt be counted on for good defense.
16. J.D. Martinez, Detroit Tigers
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Hitting
J.D. Martinezโs 2014 surge is a testament to the value of hard contact. Heโsย hardly hit any pop-upsย and has rocketedย line drives and fly ballsย all over the yard. Yet a good chunk of his success is owed to his unsustainably highย average on ground balls, and heโs reached Jeffย Francoeurย levels of aggressivenessย with a big whiff habit on the side. As such, his consistency this season likely doesn't have staying power.
Power
While consistency could elude Martinez going forward, the power heโs shown looks legit. Heโs mixing line drives and fly balls well, and his ability to rocket them in all directions has ledย to extra-base hitsย to all fields. All of it stems fromย a swing changeย Martinez made over the winter, andย heโs saidย he looks to get the ball in the air. That mindset and his new swing have made for a dandy of a combination.
Baserunning
It's unfortunate that Martinez runs like a slugger as much as he hits like one. Heโs not incapable of stealing bases, but his efficiency doing so is less than ideal. Factor inย a 36 XBT%ย thatโs next to a couple of outs apiece at second and third, and you get a guy who doesnโt fit the bill of a baserunning asset.
Defense
Martinez has been needed in left and right this season, andย the defensive metricsย have him down as at best average in both spots. A fair assessment, as heโs limited by his lack of plus arm strength andย foot speed. He does pretty well despite these weaknesses, though. His versatility is worth something, and he actually gets pretty good reads and takes pretty good routes for the most part.
Total
The sheer wildness of Martinezโs approach at the plate makes it tough to believe his big breakout is built to last. But the power heโs shown looks legit, and he can play solid defense in both corner outfield spots. Thatโs a guy whoโs worth having even if consistency begins to elude him again.
15. Yoenis Cespedes, Boston Red Sox
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Hitting
Yoenis Cespedesย has been at his best making contact this season, andย against all three pitch typesย to boot. Heโs alsoย boosted his averagesย against hard stuff and breaking stuff byย crushing it for line drives. Positives aside, however,ย Cespedesย is stillย too much of a hackerย and too much of anย extreme fly-ball hitterย to be consistent, and he hasnโt recaptured the magic he had in 2012 againstย hard stuff above the knees.
Power
Cespedesย shouldย be a power hitter with his strength and fly-ball style, and he is. He can drive the ballย in any direction, and he doesnโt have any trouble turning his well-hit balls intoย extra-base hits. Looking ahead to 2015,ย Cespedesย appears ready to bombard the Green Monster. Heโs pulled fly balls and line drivesย at a much higher rateย in 2014, something that will mean extra power if he can keep it up at Fenway Park.
Baserunning
It looks like the 16 stealsย Cespedesย had back in 2012 could be the last time he reaches double digits, but at least he hasnโt completely cut back on his aggressiveness. He hasย a 43 XBT%ย for the season, and it was an even 50 in Oakland before he came to Boston. Most notable of all is how heโs failed to come home from first on only one of eight doubles, which sums up his speed and aggressiveness pretty well.
Defense
The defensive metricsย haveย Cespedesย rated as a superb left fielder this year. If youโve watched anyย SportsCenter, youโll know that this has a lot to do with his arm. Itโs a weapon, all right. Aside from that, though, his defense is really just OK. His speed helps him correct bad reads and routes, but theyโre a little too common and they definitely keep a lid on his range. So it's a good thing he has that arm.
Total
Cespedesย still isnโt the phenomenal all-around player his raw talent says he could be, but thatโs OK. At the least, heโs a very good power source and a guy who can play good defense based solely on the strength of his arm. That there's an asset.
14. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Hitting
The 2014 Matt Kemp has aย calmer approach. He also mixesย line drives and ground ballsย well, with aย pretty good abilityย to spread them around. And indeed, heโs been hot really everย since the end of May. Not that heโs perfect, though. He hasnโt been able to hit breaking ballsย during his hot stretch, and heโs still struggling to do anythingย with pitches away. Heโs back to being good, but not back to being great.
Power
Kempโs power has come roaring backย since the All-Star break. A lot of that has to do with him simply hittingย the ball in the airย more consistently. And where he could only drive the ball up the middleย before the break, heย now has home run powerย to left and right field. It's a stretch to say that Kemp's vintage power is all the way back, but what he has is still really good.
Baserunning
While it may seem like Kempโs shoulder troubles didnโt kill his power after all, itโs looking like his ankle troubles could keep him from being his old self on the bases. Heโs only shown double-digit steal speed, andย his 42ย XBT%ย is a far cry from the 62 XBT% he had in 2011. Heโs also still prone to running into outs. Without stolen bases or aggressiveness, those hurt a lot more.
Defense
According toย the defensive metrics, Kemp has stunk no matter where heโs played in the outfield, be it center, left or, most recently, right. This makes sense. Kemp is still a good athlete even after all his injuries, but he often gets lousy reads on the ball and subsequently takes bad routes. Though these habits will do less damage away from center field, theyโll still drag down his overall value.
Total
Kemp can hit again. Heโs made that much certain, and more and more so as the season has gone along. As long as he can do that, heโs going to be a valuable player. But withoutย baserunningย or defense, he's not going to be able to get back to being the MVP-caliber player he once was.
13. Steve Pearce, Baltimore Orioles
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Hitting
Steve Pearce has spent 2014 waging war on fastballs. Heโs been more aggressiveย swinging at hard stuffย without gettingย any worseย at making contactย on his way to an improvedย line-drive rate.ย In the meantime, he's maintained a disciplined approach that has helped him draw walks. Itโs too bad heโs left himself vulnerable to slow stuff. Given how muchย slow stuff he sees, thatโs a restriction on his production.
Power
When you combineย line drives and fly ballsย like youโve never done before, youโre naturally going to see your power take a hike. Pearce has further helped himself by hitting more balls in the airย to his pull side, an especially good idea at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The catch is that heโs almost exclusivelyย a pull-power hitter. Heโs a dangerous power hitter, but that limits the danger somewhat.
Baserunning
Pearce has made a name for himself as a slugger, but he can run the bases too. Heโs been able to sneak a few steals this year and has also posted aย solid 52ย XBT%. Part of that has involved him going first to third in nine of 23 chances, a pretty good rate for a guy whoโs primarily known for his bat. Itโs all a bit out of character for him, but what heโs done canโt be totally brushed off.
Defense
Pearce has played moreย first base than left fieldย in 2014, but Iโm viewing him as a corner outfielder because first base is probably Chris Davisโ job going forward.ย The defensive metricsย say the Orioles stand to get good defense either way, and theyโre not wrong about his defense in left field. He has a good arm, and he runs and tracks fly balls surprisingly well. Youโre looking at a talented and versatile defender.
Total
If you havenโt noticed, Pearce has had a heck of a season. His assault on fastballs has worked wonders for his consistency and his power, and heโs been capable both on theย basepathsย and on defense. Itโll be a tough act to follow, but there are some breakouts you just can't ignore.
12. Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Hitting
Starling Marteย has taken hisย aggressive approachย and not changed a thing even though heโs seenย fewer pitchesย in the strike zone. Predictably, this has made him even more prone to whiffs and more dependent on good luck on balls in play. Fortunately, he still deals largely inย ground balls and line drives, and now more so in the latter thanks to aย huge increase in hard contactย on fastballs. Not a bad way to save face.
Power
Marteโsย power potential is limited because of how he doesnโt rely on fly balls, but heโs continuing to show good raw power when he does get the ball in the air. He can hit it hardย in any directionย and pick upย extra-base hitsย in any direction. Knowing this and how his speed can turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, heโs a better source of power than you might think.
Baserunning
Marteย has an outside chance to finish the season with 30 steals. He's also workingย a 58 XBT%, which is even better than last year's 52 percent. The catch is that he still hasnโt ditched his problem with caught-stealings, and then thereโs how heโs otherwise doubled up the number of outs he made on theย basepathsย last year. He has speed, but it still comes with a tendency for mistakes.
Defense
The defensive metricsย ratedย Marteย as a plus defender in 2013, mainly thanks to the center fielderโs range he brought to the table in left field. That range is still pleasing the metrics and passing the eye test, asย Marteย is about twice as fast as the average left fielder and can run down plenty of fly balls because of that. Now, if only he had the arm of a corner outfielder...
Total
Itโs a stretch to say thatย Marteโsย game has actually improved from where it was in 2013, but thatโs OK. His hitting and power are at least passable, and his speed allows him to provide quite a bit of value both on theย basepathsย and in the outfield.
11. Hunter Pence, San Francisco Giants
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Hitting
Hunter Penceโs approach has seen himย become less disciplinedย without lowering his whiff rate, and heโs also becomeย less of a line-drive hitterย and more of a ground-ball and pop-up hitter. That heโs continued to spread his batted balls aroundย is to his credit, but he wouldnโt be where he is without improved luck onย ground ballsย andย line drives. In other words: he hasn't improved as much as it looks like he has.
Power
Pence isnโt going to challenge 30 homers again, and his lack of a consistent line-drive habit doesnโt help his doubles potential, but he is a solid fly-ball hitter withย hugeย raw power. That shows up in how consistently heย can blast the ballย up the middle of the field, and heย doesnโt tend to miss resultsย when he does. Factor in how AT&T Parkย doesnโt do him any favors, and this is an area where Penceย is better than he looks.
Baserunning
Pence likely isnโt going to make it to 20 steals like he did in 2013, but he has at least hit double digits again. Heโs also been very active rounding the bases otherwise,ย upping his XBT%ย from 39 to 51 while posting a career-high number of first-to-thirds. Whether Pence can keep this up at age 32 next season is a reach. But given that he keeps himself in shape as well as anyone, some optimism is warranted.
Defense
The defensive metricsย canโt make up their minds about Penceโs defense, and understandably so. His defense is hard to evaluate largely because heโs no more graceful in the field than he is at the plate. His routes to balls can be adventurous, and so can his throwing accuracy. But since he can make up for poor reads with good speed and his throwing arm is at least strong, Iโd say he does more good than harm.
Total
Pence is having a better season than this score indicates. But part of what weโre doing here is sizing up whether things can last, and Iโm not sold on him being an improved hitter. Even if you knock that down a peg, though, heโs still a good-hitting, good-power, good-running and (generally) good-fielding right fielder.
10. Justin Upton, Atlanta Braves
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Hitting
Justin Upton hasย been more aggressiveย than he was in 2013 and has failed to improve his whiff habit in the process. He also still hasnโt fixed the hole at theย top of the zone. Whatย isย good, however, is how heโs making the most of aย huge fastball increaseย byย hitting hard stuff on a lineย better than ever. That heโs also crushingย off-speedย stuff is another plus. Once again, behold the value of good contact.
Power
Itโs no fluke that Uptonโs power is up this season. Heโs back to being something likeย the fly-ball hitterย he was back in 2011, and heโs simply hit the ballย a long wayย more consistently than he didย in 2013. Really the only disappointing thing is how muchย his line-drive habitย is skewed toward left field, but itโs a minor gripe. This is the best Uptonโs power has looked in several years.
Baserunning
Itโs looking more and more like Uptonโsย baserunningย peaked in Arizona. Heโs looking at a second straight season with fewer than double-digit steals, and heโs watchedย his 52 XBT% fallย to 47 percent. Heโs not a badย baserunnerย by any stretchโhe certainly still moves better than most corner outfieldersโbut heโs gotten to be relatively human.
Defense
After rating him as a liability in 2013,ย the defensive metricsย have Upton rated as roughly an average defender this year. He indeed does seem to have a better grasp of the angles of left field after making the switch from right field last year. And though he may be slowing down on the bases, he still has good closing speed in the outfield. The only problem: He hasnโt quit being overly error-prone for an outfielder.
Total
Upton has some exploitable weaknesses at the plate, and he hasnโt been as active on theย basepaths, but heโs otherwise doing just fine. Heโs far from a weak hitter, his defense in left field is strong and heโs back to being one of the gameโs more dangerous power threats.
9. Brett Gardner, New York Yankees
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Hitting
Brett Gardner still sees anย insane number of pitches, a product ofย his excellent eyeย and how good he is at spoiling pitches. He also still balancesย line drives and ground ballsย well, and he isย no longer easily beatenย by hard stuff on the inner third. But withย his whiff ratesย on breaking andย off-speedย stuff trending upward, you wonder if pitchers will keep giving him the luxury ofย so many fastballs to hit.
Power
Suddenly, Gardnerโs a pretty good power hitter. The key to his transformation has simply been hitting the ball in the air toย his pull side more often, allowing himselfย to pick upย doubles, triples and home runs like never before. Itโs too bad he really doesnโt haveย much line-drive powerย in the left-center gap, but what he has now definitely passes for above-average pop.
Baserunning
As Gardner has become more of a power threat, heโs unfortunately become less of aย baserunningย threat. Heโs now more of a 20-25-steal guy than a 40-steal guy, and itโs not the best look thatย his XBT% has fallen from 45 last year to 38 this year. Heโs still a very goodย baserunnerย compared to most corner outfielders, to be sure, but heโs not the explosive baserunnerย he used to be.
Defense
The defensive metricsย are still convinced that Gardnerโs an above-average defender in left field, with his value stemming much more from his range than his arm. Thatโs a product of quick jumps and good speed. It is fair, however, to say that the step Gardner has lost on theย basepathsย has also been lost on defense, and that itโs not likely to make a comeback now that heโs past 30.
Total
With an excellent approach to hitting, good power, good speed and good defense, Gardner is more of a complete player now than heโs ever been before. Keeping him from being a truly superb all-around player, though, is the reality that he just canโt run like he used to.
8. Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals
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Hitting
When youโreย as patient and disciplinedย as Jaysonย Werth, a walk rate like his is going to happen. Heโs also making more contact than he did last year, partially because itโs now even harder toย sneak a fastballย by him.ย He can also still hit the ballย hard to any field. The only negative is that Werth hasnโt been able to maintainย last yearโs career-best line-drive rate, but I'd still say he has hitting figured out.
Power
Becauseย Werthย has hit more fly balls, he should be hitting for more power. Heโs not in part because balls in the airย to his pull sideย havenโt been as frequent as they were in 2013. Sinceย thatย was abnormal, he's gone back to normal. He hasnโt lost theย ability to drive the ball, though, and hisย map of resultsย says heโs gotten unlucky up the middle. Even with the age question, Werth's power still looks really good.
Baserunning
Werthโsย not the same stolen base threat that he was in his heyday with the Phillies, but heโs on the verge of stealing double-digit bases for a second year in a row. Next to that isย a 56 XBT%ย that's featured him going first to third roughly half the times he's had a chance. This is a tough performance for a guy in his mid-30s to repeat, but itโs clearย Werthย is far from being a station-to-station guy.
Defense
After being split onย Werthย in 2013,ย the defensive metricsย agree that heโs a below-average defender in right field now. Thatโs a fair assessment. His arm is good, and he can still read and track fly balls reasonably well, but he is limited by hisย foot speed. Itโs especially noticeable when good closing speed is needed, as thatโs somethingย Werthย doesnโt have much of anymore.
Total
For anyone whoโs just now tuning in,ย Werthโsย contact is actually working out pretty well for the Nationals. He canโt run or field like he used to, but he can definitely hit. Factor in how his power is better than this yearโs numbers make it look, and heโs one of the better offensive threats in the National League.
7. Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Hitting
Yasiel Puigโsย improved approachย isnโt a secret anymore, but itโs worth repeating that heโs swung, chased and whiffed less than he did in 2013. In particular, he hasnโt beenย nearly asย prone to whiff on slow stuff outside the zone. And though he puts a lot of trust in hisย ground-ball habit, that heโs had theย same amount of luckย the last two years says he can make it work. All he has to do now is work on hitting outside pitches.
Power
Puigย isnโt lacking for raw power, and itโs easy to admire how heย doesnโt waste line drivesย on singles that often thanks largely toย excellent power in the gaps. But his home run power...well, maybe not so much. Itโs limited by a relatively infrequent fly-ball habit, and even more limited by how seldom heย pulls the ballย in the airย to left field. Though easily above average, his power potential is less than elite.
Baserunning
It was easy to figure last year thatย Puigโsย baserunningย misadventures would be a learning experience. Apparently not. Heโs still a lousy base stealer, he still has a big problem running into outs on the bases andย his 46 XBT%ย is down from last yearโs 58 percent. He certainlyย can be a terrific baserunner with his speed, but he so far hasnโt proved to be one.
Defense
This is, of course, assuming thatย Puigย returns to a full-time role in right field in 2015.ย The defensive metrics are convinced thatโs where he belongs anyway, and theyโre not wrong. Puigโsย outstanding arm is a better fit for right than center, and his speed is better equipped to make up for his occasionally iffy reads and routes in right than it is in center.
Total
Puigโsย sophomore season is a tough one to figure. The advancements heโs made with his hitting are absolutely worth celebrating and have allowed him to continue being a very good player. But his power, baserunningย and defense have either gotten worse or refused to improve. As such, we look forward to 2015 still able to discuss how greatย Puigย might be rather than how great he is.
6. Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves
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Hitting
Jason Heywardโs approach is theย best itโs ever been, as heโs combining strong patience and discipline with career-best contact. Heโs also hittingย slow pitches for line drivesย better, and heย spreads his ground balls aroundย better than most lefties. The catch to all this is that Heywardโs uppercut swing is stillย restricting his productionย above the knees. With no clear way to fix that, his hitting potential only goes so high.
Power
Another issue Heyward has is that he tends to inflate his fly-ball rate with pop-ups. Take that and combine it with his ground-ball rate, and youโre only left with so many well-hit balls. His power isnโt as bad as this yearโs production makes it look, however. He can give the ball a rideย to any field, and heโd have better numbers if he hadย more resultsย up the middle. He still has above-average power.
Baserunning
After slowing it down on theย basepathsย in an injury-marred 2013, Heyward has put himself back in the 20-steal discussion this year, and with better efficiency to boot. Itโs too badย his XBT% has droppedย from above 60 in 2012 to just 46 this year, but thatโs still good by corner outfielder standards. That Heyward still doesnโt run into outs on theย basepathsย is another thing he does well.
Defense
With respect to Alex Gordon, Heyward gets my vote as the best defensive corner outfielder in the business. The defensive metricsย rightfully have him pegged as aย hugeย asset in right field. His arm is a weapon, and he gets range from combining good reads and routes with the long strides his 6โ5โ frame allows. Heโs the total package and has really never been better defensively.
Total
Heywardโs bat comes with some limitations, and it looks like his power peaked in 2012, but these are minor gripes in the grand scheme of his talent. Heโs at least a good hitter andย baserunner, and heโs arguably the best defensive player in the game today.
5. Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins
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Hitting
Christian Yelichย is liable toย whiff on off-speedย pitchesย andย canโt do muchย with slow stuffย in general. But next to those shortcomings is the good stuff. Namely, anย extremely discerning approach, an endless supply ofย line drives and ground balls, andย the bat controlย to poke the former to left field and the latter wherever. With a foundation like this, it wouldย notย be surprising ifย Yelichย soon starts contending for batting titles.
Power
When you rarely hit the ball in the air, power isnโt easy to come by. Thatย Yelichย generally disregards his pull side is another complication. That he doesnโt hit pop-ups, however, allows him to make his fly balls count. He also has the pop to get the ball over the left fielderโs headย for extra-base hits, and he knows where the right-center gap is. Itโs not great power, but itโs better than it looks.
Baserunning
A solid base stealer in the minors,ย Yelichย has done enough to establish himself as a solid base stealer in the majors too. Heโs surpassed 20 steals with solid efficiency in his first full season, and heโs also working onย a 52 XBT%ย that features only a couple of unforgivable outs on theย basepaths. Even if he doesnโt do any better, 20-steal potential with that kind of aggressiveness is good stuff.
Defense
The defensive metricsย loveย what theyโre seeing fromย Yelichย in 2014, rating him as easily above average in left field. That he doesnโt have a strong arm is a key weakness, but his range is terrific for left field. He doesnโt always get the best jumps, but he runs smooth routes and uses his plus speed to cover ground. He may not be the best all-around left fielder, but he might be the rangiest.
Total
Yelichย is overshadowed by the behemoth who plays across the way in right field, but heโs proved to be a terrific player in his own right. His hitting isn't perfect yet, but he clearly has a rake that should get better with time. Add in well-above-averageย baserunningย and defense, and you have one of the more overlooked gems in MLB.
4. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
68 of 71
Hitting
One way to beat Alex Gordon is to justย throw him a breaking ball. And in general,ย anything slowย is a good bet for a whiff. Fortunately, itโs become extremely difficult to get fastballs by him, and heโs better equipped to attack fastballs now that heโsย toned down his aggressivenessย outside the zone. And as much as he whiffs onย off-speed, heโs also never been better atย hitting it hard. So yeah, meet an improved hitter.
Power
The power surge Gordon has enjoyedย in the second halfย was probably coming all along. Heโs aย good fly-ball hitter, after all. And though he doesnโt hit the ball in the airย to his pull sideย that often, heย makes them count when he does. Then you can factor in how he also has some power in the left-center gap, and you get a pretty good picture of what Gordon is: a 20-homer guy with solid doubles power.
Baserunning
Behold easily the most overlooked aspect of Gordonโs game. Heโs going to steal 10-15 bases in a season, and even better is how well he rounds the bases. Heโs been doing that especially well in 2014, postingย a 52 XBT%ย with frequent first-to-thirds and just one outย at second and third base.ย Baserunningย like that is darn good, especially for a corner outfielder.
Defense
Youโve probably heard thatย the defensive metricsย are in love with Gordonโs defense, and they should be. There are better fly-ball catchers than him, but not many because of how well he combines his solid speed with good reads and routes. Then thereโs his superb arm. It doesnโt get tested as much anymore, but FanGraphsโ Jeff Sullivanย did a fine job of outlining how thereโs value in that.
Total
This score surely comes off as being criminally low for a guy whoโs rated as one of the best players in the game by WAR. All Iโll say is that you have to keep in mind how much credit the defensive metrics are giving Gordon, which might be too much. But even if we downplay WARโs opinion of Gordon, weโre still looking at a terrific defender who can hit, hit for power and run the bases.
3. Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians
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Hitting
Michael Brantley was already a terrific contact hitterย with a strong approach, and any such hitter is going to do well more often than not. Whatโs really changed is that heโs now A) aย strong source of line drivesย and B) a specialist atย peppering the opposite fieldย with line drives. Heโs made himself into an excellent opposite-field hitter in doing so, and thatโs all he needed to do to become a great all-around hitter.
Power
Brantleyย hasnโt made himselfย into more of a fly-ball hitter, but his power is up because the balls he hits in the air are going to the right place. Heโs been far more consistent hitting the ball in the airย to his pull side than he ever was before, and most of what heโs hit in that direction has turned to gold. Provided he can keep this up, continuing to be a 20-homer guy with doubles power is definitely possible.
Baserunning
More power means Brantley hasnโt needed to steal as many bases, but that hasnโt stopped him. Heโs a 20-steal guy for the first time, and with excellent efficiency to boot. In light of that, itโs somewhat disappointing that he only hasย a 41ย XBT%, but at least the trade-off is very few outs on the bases. Though itโs Brantleyโs hitting thatโs gotten him attention, donโt overlook how good hisย baserunningย has been.
Defense
You might be surprised to hear that only one ofย the defensive metricsย has Brantley rated as an above-average left fielder, but he really isnโt perfect. His accurate arm is an asset, to be sure. Itโs his range thatโs hit or miss, as he can occasionally run tentative routes to the ball. Itโs a good thing he can make up for that most of the time, and letโs not overlook that he can also pitch in solid center field defense.
Total
Brantley has turned what had been excellent hitting potential into plain old excellent hitting. That heโs also mixed in a solid combination of power and speed is icing on the cake, and it's the difference between being a good hitter and a terrific all-around player.
2. Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
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Hitting
You can always count on Jose Bautista to take his walks, as heโs aย discerning hitterย who likes to see his share of pitches. But this year has seen him do a terrific jobย using the opposite fieldย for a change. Heโs also never been more of aย line-drive threat against slow stuff, and heโsย covered outside pitchesย better than he has since 2011. Heโs turned himself from a low-average/high-OBP guy into a high-average/high-OBP guy.
Power
Just because Bautista is more of a complete hitter doesnโt mean heโs a lesser power hitter. He hasnโt stopped beingย a fly-ball hitter, and heย doesnโt seem to be losingย any of hisย patented pull power. At the back of oneโs mind, however, is the knowledge that Bautista has had trouble staying healthy the last two seasons. With his 34thย birthday due up, heโs bound to start leaking at leastย someย power eventually.
Baserunning
Bautista is still a good athlete for his age, but I wouldnโt expect him to light up theย basepathsย for much longer. Heโs only a candidate for five-ishย steals now, and heโs watchedย his XBT% fallย from over 50 percent each year between 2011 and 2013 to 42 percent this year. He could be due for another drop in his age-34 season, which would make his habit of running into outs look that much worse.
Defense
The defensive metricsย arenโt overly impressed by Bautistaโs defense in right field, and they look even less impressed if you take away his (rightfully) strong marks for his arm. There is something to their pickiness, as Bautistaโs range is limited by his non-eliteย foot speed. But itโs really not that big of a problem. He moves fine for a right fielder, and he at least reads and tracks balls well.
Total
Itโs hard not to have at least some doubts about Bautistaโs ability to keep it up as he gets into his mid-30s, but thereโs still plenty to like. Heโs still a terrific power source, and heโs made himself into even more of an on-base machine while continuing to play strong defense in right field.
1. Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins
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Hitting
Up until a wayward pitchย ended his season early, Giancarlo Stanton was still liable to swing and miss on slow stuff. Aside from that, though, he was continuing to beย less aggressive and more disciplinedย than he used to be.ย It's also become very difficult to sneak a fastball by him, heโsย getting betterย as a line-drive hitter and he was working onย career-best dominanceย at the top of the zone. Though his .395 on-base percentage was inflated a bit by 24 intentional walks, he was definitely showing some real improvements.
Power
Heโs Giancarlo Stanton. All he needs to do is get the ball in the air, and it will go. Heโs fortunately pretty good at getting the ball in the air, and he can make itย go in any directionย when he does. Such is how he ended his season with an NL-best 37 home runs and .267 Isolated Power.
Baserunning
Really the only thing to hold against Stanton is theย outs he madeย at second and third. Outside of those, however, he did a fine job of showing what he can do with healthy legs under him. He topped double-digit steals for the first time, with good efficiency to boot. He also finished with a 46 XBT% that featured a career-best eight first-to-thirds.
Defense
The defensive metricsย were split on Stantonโs defense, but itโs the one that was rating him as easily above average that has the right idea. His range is limited by his modestย foot speed, but he makes up for it by getting solid jumps and tracking balls well. And though he doesnโt exactly have Roberto Clementeโs arm, itโs good enough. As long as he can stay healthyโfingers crossedโheโs going to get it done on defense.
Total
Stanton is still limited by his tendency to swing and miss, but he doesnโt have many limits aside from that one anymore. Heโs done enough to turn himself into a consistent hitter, he runs the bases and plays defense well and, of course, hits for a ton of power. The corner outfielder kingdom is his to rule.
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