5 NBA Rookies Who Will Outshine Their Competition During 2014-15 Season
Not many NBA rookies have the chops to compete with or outperform teammates playing the same position. Only the most talented and skilled newcomers can exceed the production and impact of their counterparts.
A handful of clubs will have positional battles between rookies and veterans, and only a select few youngsters will outshine their competition.
We're not focusing on clear-cut starters such as Jabari Parker, Nerlens Noel and Elfrid Payton. There won't be much competition for them, and they'll enjoy the lion's share of minutes.
Rather, let's break down the rookies who will be challenged and will share the spotlight with their teammates. How and why will they stand out above their elders?
Minnesota Timberwolves SF: Andrew Wiggins Will Outshine Corey Brewer
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Wiggins: 19 years old; 17.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 45% FG, 34% 3FG at Kansas in 2013-14
Brewer: Seven-year veteran; 12.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.9 SPG, 48% FG, 28% 3FG in 2013-14
Leading up to the draft, Andrew Wiggins was billed as shooting guard/small forward. With Kevin Martin established at shooting guard for the Minnesota Timberwolves, the rookie's most likely role will be at the 3 spot.
At that position, coach Flip Saunders will divide minutes between Wiggins and Corey Brewer.
Brewer is a great open-court player whose length allows him to make some plays defensively and finish strong in transition. But other than that, there's nothing too special about his skill set and production. He struggles to create offense off the dribble, and his career three-point average is under 30 percent.
Meanwhile, Wiggins has a chance to help out the Wolves in a much more versatile manner. Not only will he be a dangerous slasher and a solid wing defender, he'll also be able to hit the glass much better than Brewer.
Key Dae of Canis Hoopus noted the youngster's rebounding bonus:
"Wiggins...has a crazy good ability to crash the glass, particularly on the offensive end. He fights to the front of the rim on nearly every shot and has a fantastic ability to get position...He also gets off the floor consecutively, which allows him to volley around contested rebounds.
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To say Wiggins is more versatile than Brewer isn't to say he's extremely polished or an instant hero. He certainly needs development as a shot-creator and outside shooter. But his impact will ultimately eclipse Brewer's in 2014-15, and that's the first step on his path to NBA stardom.
Los Angeles Lakers PF: Julius Randle Will Outshine Carlos Boozer
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Randle: 19 years old; 15.0 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 50% FG at Kentucky in 2013-14
Boozer: 12-year veteran; 13.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 46% FG in 2013-14
According to Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News, Los Angeles Lakers head coach Byron Scott is reportedly favoring Carlos Boozer over Julius Randle at starting power forward. As such, Boozer may get more minutes and put up more points than the rookie, especially early in the season.
But don't confuse "more minutes and points" with outshining and outplaying.
Even if Boozer rebounds from a lackluster 2013-14, he's still on the downslope of his career. His PER has waned since 2011, and the Chicago Bulls were 8.5 points better without him (per 100 possessions) in 2013-14, according to 82games.com.
Randle will endure some youthful shortcomings, but he'll give LA more juice on both ends and put better pressure on opponents.
He's more physically explosive than Boozer, and that will manifest itself with drives to the rim, better transition play and more versatile defense. Randle will be able to defend better in isolation, rotate quicker and check a wider variety of forwards.
It may not result in overwhelming statistical superiority, but the eye test and bottom-line numbers will give Randle the edge.
Sacramento Kings SG: Nik Stauskas Will Outshine Ben McLemore
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Stauskas: 20 years old*; 17.5 PPG, 3.3 APG, 44% 3FG at Michigan in 2013-14
McLemore: Entering second year (21 years old); 8.8 PPG, 1.0 APG, 32% 3FG in 2013-14
Although coach Mike Malone asserted that Nik Stauskas and Ben McLemore "can play together," per Steven Wilson of Kings.com, only one will take the floor for much of the season.
In the inevitable Stauskas vs. McLemore duel, I'm banking on the rookie. Stauskas is simply more versatile and more compatible with the rest of the Kings than his sophomore counterpart.
We saw significant improvement and aggressiveness from McLemore during summer league, for sure. But James Ham of Cowbell Kingdom explained that Stauskas is more polished:
"Where McLemore is a raw athlete, Stauskas is a refined shooter with range. The 20-year-old guard out of Michigan has above-average ball-handling skills and is an accomplished passer, as well. Stauskas can run the pick and and roll and his long-range shooting will spread the floor for both DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay. Stauskas will struggle on the defensive end initially, but he is a high-IQ basketball player that is rarely out of position.
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McLemore may become a proficient shooter once he gets his reps up. Even so, it's not a stretch to say Stauskas is still a couple ticks better from downtown. When you factor in his passing and ball-handling advantage, he has a great chance to stand out as the better offensive performer.
Stauskas often gets knocked for his defense, but it's only marginally worse than McLemore's. Both have a lot to learn about effectively guarding foes possession-by-possession.
Overall, the rookie will have a better season and shine brighter than the sophomore.
*Stauskas turns 21 on Oct. 7
Chicago Bulls SF: Doug McDermott Will Outshine Mike Dunleavy
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McDermott: 22 years old; 26.7 PPG, 53% FG, 45% 3FG at Creighton in 2013-14
Dunleavy: 12-year veteran; 11.3 PPG, 43% FG, 38% 3FG in 2013-14
Coach Tom Thibodeau is armed with an ultra-deep Chicago Bulls roster for 2014-15. Everyone outside of Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Jimmy Butler will be sharing modest minutes in the rotation.
Regardless of who starts at small forward, the minutes will predominantly be split generously between returnee Mike Dunleavy and rookie Doug McDermott. Thibs may favor the veteran in many cases, but don't be surprised if McDermott provides a more dynamic impact and better production.
Sure, they're not wildly dissimilar players. They both stretch the floor with superb shooting range, which is what Chicago needs. But McDermott adds other dimensions that will keep opponents off balance—dimensions that Dunleavy can't provide.
B/R's Dan Favale explained that the Bulls need his creativity in addition to the perimeter prowess:
"Shooting—spot-up shooting, specifically—is only one aspect of his vast offensive repertoire. That he can score on his own is huge for the Bulls' stagnant offensive system, which ranked dead last in post-up and isolation efficiency last season, per Synergy Sports (subscription required).
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Dunleavy's nightly contributions won't be as enjoyable. He's an efficient shooter and decision-maker, but he can't generate buckets from the free-throw area and short wing spots. His 2013-14 shot chart reveals that just 6.7 percent of his field goals came from those spaces.
We're not talking about inefficient long two-pointers, but rather close-range pull-up jumpers, post-ups and baseline step-backs. That's what separates McDermott from Dunleavy.
Denver Nuggets SG (Backup): Gary Harris Will Outshine Randy Foye
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Harris: 20 years old; 16.7 PPG, 2.7 APG, 43% FG, 35% 3FG at Michigan State in 2013-14
Foye: Eight-year veteran; 13.2 PPG, 3.5 APG, 41% FG, 38% 3FG in 2013-14
This is the sleeper pick of the bunch. Gary Harris isn't expected to make a ton of noise for the Denver Nuggets, as Arron Afflalo will start at shooting guard and Randy Foye will initially earn most of the bench minutes.
If Harris gets some opportunities, however, he could prove to be as good or better than Foye. His summer league adventures were inefficient, but they revealed a smorgasbord of scoring moves from all over the court. He works fluidly away from the ball, and he can find the hoop or teammates when operating with it.
Nuggets general manager Tim Connelly told B/R's Jared Zwerling that he was pleased with Harris' two-way play during summer league:
"I like what we've seen out of Gary, especially on the defensive end of the ball...quick hands, he takes a challenge, I think he has instincts that are hard to teach...We were a bit surprised how quickly he got (his shot) off..."
His veteran competition, Foye, is a solid two-way player as well. But Harris' young legs will put opponents on their heels a little more, and he'll cause more havoc defensively.
Nate Timmons of DenverStiffs.com belives that Harris can make more than just a little noise: "Harris is good enough to earn playing time right away. He will likely push Foye for minutes and could make Foye expendable this season."
By springtime, Brian Shaw and Co. may favor the youthful guard of the future rather than the veteran who won't likely be a long-term mainstay.
Unless stated otherwise, all statistics are gathered from Sports-Reference.com/CBB and Basketball-Reference.com.
