If Nerlens Noel was projected as a late-lottery pick, he may not even be on this list. But as a No. 1 or No. 2-overall guy, the risk is amplified given the increased value of that draft slot.
There are three areas of concern with him, which are all manageable individually but can cause a headache when meshed into one.
The first is his injury history. Noel fractured a growth plate in his knee in high school and tore his ACL in college. These are two significant injuries for a kid who hasn't played an NBA minute yet.
The second area of concern is weight. The two lightest starting centers in the NBA are Larry Sanders and Chris Bosh at 235 pounds. Noel weighed in at 206 pounds at the combine.
If Noel is able to add roughly 30 pounds to his slender frame, he'll still be tied for the lightest starting center in the league. Of course, he should be able to get there, but a guy like Bosh has a tremendous offensive skill set. Noel doesn't. Sanders is a great comparison for Noel, but is Sanders a No. 1 overall pick?
The last area of concern is offense. It's just not his thing. We're talking about a potential first pick in the draft who can't score more than five feet from the rim.
And when you combine all these areas of concern together, you get one seven-foot risk with a flattop.
Then again, his athleticism and defensive instincts have the potential to change a game. Noel has awesome bounce, a relentless motor and exciting above-the-rim playmaking ability.
But you have to ask yourself—is the risk worth the potential reward? I'll let you know in 2016-17.