NBA Finals 2012 Preview: Breaking Down Each Miami Heat-OKC Thunder Matchup

It's the NBA Finals matchup that everyone could only hope for at the beginning of the playoffs: Kevin Durant's Oklahoma City Thunder against LeBron James' Miami Heat. 

The top two MVP candidates from this season take top billing in this series, but the supporting cast of each team has its share of All-Stars, too. 

James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh give Miami a Big Three that rivals any in the league. The question for the Heat, then, is what they'll get from their supporting cast. 

OKC has its own Big Three with Russell Westbrook and James Harden alongside Durant, with a championship-winning center in Kendrick Perkins manning the middle. Perkins also doesn't happen to have a friendly relationship with James from back when Perkins played for Boston, which should make for some must-watch confrontations in the series. 

Let's take a look at each individual matchup in these finals to see who'll emerge as the 2012 NBA champions. 

Note: Though Miami coach Erik Spoelstra won't come clean with his starting lineup, I'm operating under the assumption he'll go with this rotation: Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Udonis Haslem as starters, with Shane Battier and Mike Miller as the first two subs off the bench.

Point Guard: Russell Westbrook v. Mario Chalmers

On paper, this is the biggest matchup advantage for the Oklahoma City Thunder. 

Chalmers may be three years older than Westbrook, but the OKC point guard should run circles around Chalmers in this series. Westbrook's an All-Star who averages around 20 points, five rebounds and five assists for his career; Chalmers' averages barely come close to half that. 

Chalmers stands no chance against Westbrook defensively, plain and simple. At times in this series, Dwyane Wade, Shane Battier and LeBron James all figure to take turns defensively against him.

Westbrook's most dangerous when he's on the break or driving with a full head of steam to the basket, so Miami will likely try to goad him into shooting long-range jumpers, also known as his Achilles' heel. If he's got the floater going and can knock down some of those low-percentage jumpers, Miami's in trouble. 

Miami will count on Chalmers to provide some help to their Big Three on offense, but he'll just be expected to stem the bleeding defensively. Anything beyond that will be gravy for the Heat. 

ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY

Shooting Guard: Thabo Sefolosha v. Dwyane Wade

Sefolosha's oft-heralded defensive abilities will be put to the test in this series by Wade, who will assuredly be looking to bounce back from a sub-par conference finals.

Wade's PER has dropped from a 26.4 in the regular season to a 22.6 in the playoffs, and his true shooting percentage has plummeted from .559 in the regular season to .529 in the playoffs. Miami needs more from him this round if they're to beat the Thunder four times in seven games. 

At 6'7", Sefolosha has the length to bother Wade and keep him from routinely driving into the paint, which is critical if they're to keep him from going thermonuclear. Once Wade gets a couple of those awkward, off-balance, one-foot off-the-backboard shots to fall, the road only gets tougher for the Thunder. 

The Thunder won't be expecting much out of Sefolosha on the offensive end, realistically. He's not going to suddenly explode for 25 points a game. If he can knock down a couple of jumpers and space the floor for his teammates, he'll have done his job on that end of the court. 

Sefolosha may limit his effectiveness, but Wade should still get his points in this series, barring any further injury to his knee. 

ADVANTAGE: MIAMI

Small Forward: Kevin Durant v. LeBron James

When's the last time the top two vote-getters for MVP met in the NBA Finals? It hasn't happened since the 1997-'98 season, when Michael Jordan took down Karl Malone's Utah Jazz with a last-second shot that still lives in infamy. 

These guys each hold top billing in this series, as they're both going to be expected to pour in at least 25 points a night while rebounding and defending like mad men. Now that Durant's been showing a proclivity for getting his teammates involved offensively, it wouldn't be a surprise to see either of these guys lead their team in assists on a given night, either. 

Durant has the sweeter stroke out of the two, and his quick release should earn him some easy buckets, despite his still skinny frame. James, on the other hand, needs to go bull-in-the-china-shop all series long. He needs to make his living on the free-throw line. 

What separates the two, at least for now, is their defensive prowess. Durant's been demonstrating marked improvement in that area, but there isn't a single NBA player besides James that can guard every position on the floor, from point guard to center.

That flexibility will allow James to mark Westbrook at times, which may prove critical if Chalmers is getting torched too often. 

These guys won't defend each other the entire series—expect Battier to make Durant's life difficult, while Sefolosha and Serge Ibaka could see time on James—but it should be a treat to all basketball fans on the possessions where they are matched up mano-a-mano. 

ADVANTAGE: MIAMI

Power Forward: Serge Ibaka v. Chris Bosh

Again, I'm operating under the assumption that Bosh's Game 7 performance (19 points, eight rebounds in 31 minutes) was enough to convince Spoelstra to put him back into the starting lineup, where Miami will need legitimate bigs to battle Oklahoma City's frontcourt. 

Ibaka finished second this year in Defensive Player of the Year voting, largely due to his league-leading 3.65 blocks per game. He's the leading blocks-getter in the playoffs, too, with a 3.27 block-per-game average. Miami players have to go up strong against Ibaka, or their shots will end up in the third row. 

A healthy Bosh appears to be the linchpin to a Miami championship this year, as he proved in Game 7 against Boston. His shooting ability (with newfound three-point range) will force Ibaka to drift to the perimeter to guard him, opening up driving lanes for James, Wade and the rest of the Heat's slashers. 

Ibaka wasn't afraid to shoot and knock down open jumpers against the San Antonio Spurs, who appeared to deliberately leave him open in the mid-range area throughout the conference finals. His perfect 11-for-11, 26-point night in Game 4 gave the Spurs reason to abandon that strategy. 

Bosh won't be hesitant to guard Ibaka outside the paint, however. Ibaka will need to walk the fine line between finding opportunities to score and not forcing his own offense all series, so long as Bosh can stay on the floor. 

ADVANTAGE: MIAMI

Center: Kendrick Perkins v. Udonis Haslem

Perkins may be known for being a black hole of rage and fouls, but he gives the Thunder something Miami lacks in this series: a true center. 

It's unlikely that Perkins has a repeat of his Game 4 performance against the Spurs (15 points, nine rebounds) any time in this series, but the Thunder can't expect much from him on the offensive end. If he's on the floor, he's there to set a tone and play physical, bruising defense. 

Perkins showed some limitations guarding the high pick-and-roll against the Spurs, which Spoelstra will assuredly try to take advantage of with some combination of his Big Three. If Perkins can stay on the floor and stay out of foul trouble, it's a huge advantage for the Thunder. 

After spending time marking Dirk Nowitzki in his past two NBA Finals appearances, Perkins will be an entirely different beast for Haslem. Perkins has a solid 30 pounds on Haslem, which means Haslem won't likely find many easy opportunities right under the basket. 

Instead, like Bosh, Haslem will need to rely on his mid-range game to draw Perkins out of the paint. If he gets that 15-foot jumper going and forces Perkins to guard him more closely, it's only more easy buckets for Wade and James. 

ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY

Bench

Assuming Shane Battier does come off the bench for the Heat, he'll still end up playing 30-plus minutes most nights, as he'll be tasked as the primary Durant defender. Battier didn't make life easy on Durant in last season's playoffs (when Battier was still with the Memphis Grizzlies), which should make that matchup particularly fascinating to watch. 

Problem is, the quality of Miami's bench plummets quickly after Battier. Mike Miller's body is so broken down that he looks like Mr. Glass from Unbreakable at this point. Norris Cole, after a promising start to his rookie season, has largely fallen out of the rotation, as has James Jones. And Joel Anthony is still Joel Anthony. 

The Thunder, on the other hand, have the Sixth Man of the Year in James Harden sitting on their bench, ready to bring some instant offense after the halfway mark of the first quarter. Harden's a legitimate 20 point-per-game scorer on just about any other NBA team and gives the Thunder an element that the Heat largely lack (a certifiable bench scorer). 

OKC will also rely on the championship experience of Derek Fisher, who knocked down some critical shots to close out San Antonio in Game 6, and the floor-spacing ability of Daequan Cook in limited minutes, too. 

One potentially underrated X factor in this series? Nick Collison of the Thunder. He's not one for flashy plays, and his stats will rarely impress you, but he's brilliant at drawing charges, directing his teammates on defense and making the gritty plays that don't show up in box scores but help teams finish off opponents. 

ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY

Coach: Scott Brooks v. Erik Spoelstra

In one of the more underrated aspects of this series, it features two of the hottest coaches in the NBA under the age of 50 in Brooks and Spoelstra. 

After getting rolled in the first two games of the conference finals, Brooks shocked the world by outcoaching Gregg Popovich, the reigning NBA Coach of the Year, in the next four games. He wasn't afraid to make major mid-series adjustments, moving Sefolosha onto Tony Parker, showing on high pick-and-rolls, and taking advantage of the Spurs' defensive tendencies. 

Now, as ESPN.com's Kevin Arnovitz notes, Brooks appears to be having a coming-of-age moment alongside his young team. He's taken the next step forward in his development as a coach—notably, just in time for him to become an unrestricted free agent after this series. 

Spoelstra may rival the Lakers' Mike Brown as the coach who's most likely to be thrown on the hot seat at any given second. Brown's head was reportedly on the line had he lost Game 7 against Denver in the opening round of this year's playoffs, and it's difficult to imagine Spoelstra returning had the Heat crumbled against the Celtics in Game 6.

Instead, Spoelstra has kept his team humming along, earning back-to-back NBA Finals appearances. The Heat's place in these Finals may have appeared preordained back on "The Decision" night, but the path to the Finals both years proved no easy task for the Heat. Spoelstra deserves credit for keeping the team stable and focused in times of uncertainty. 

Brooks barely edges Spoelstra in this one, solely because he appears slightly more willing to take risks with his lineups and rotations. Both have made questionable decisions in these playoffs, but both appear to only be getting stronger as coaches. 

ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY 

The Verdict and a Prediction

Based on my scoring, Oklahoma City wins the matchup battle against Miami by a count of four to three. 

As you'll read elsewhere, this matchup is just about as close as it gets. Each team has a Big Three that powered their way to the Finals, and each team has a supporting cast that's stepped up at big moments in this year's playoffs, just as any championship-caliber supporting cast must do. 

The James v. Durant matchup, in my eyes, is a wash for both teams. I expect a few eruptions from Wade against Sefolosha, but see the same thing coming from Westbrook against Chalmers. 

In the end, the Thunder's reserve firepower appears more consistent than Miami's. While both teams' Big Threes will play a lion's share of the minutes, they'll need production from their co-stars to gain an advantage over each other. 

Add in Oklahoma City's raucous homecourt advantage, and it appears that Kevin Durant's on his way to his first NBA championship in the next two weeks. 

OKLAHOMA CITY IN 7