2012 NBA Mock Draft: First-Round Shocks Guaranteed to Happen
Every year, in every professional sports draft, crazy things happen.
"Guaranteed" top-10 picks end up falling to the end of the first round. High-risk, high-reward players somehow find their way into the top half of the draft. A pick or two end up devastated because they've spent the last several months being told they're bona-fide future stars, and then find themselves without a team when the first round is over.
The same will be the case for this year's NBA draft. But which players are the most shock-worthy this year? Here's a complete first-round mock with a special emphasis on those players.
1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky
Here's a shock: Anthony Davis won't be taken first. Just kidding. If anyone in this year's draft is un-shockable, it's this guy. The consensus top player isn't going anywhere except New Orleans.
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Bradley Beal, SG, Florida
The Bobcats should take Beal with their second pick, though it wouldn't be a bad idea to trade it to bring in some veteran help. If they do stick with the slot, though, bringing in Beal to form a nasty backcourt makes the most sense.
3. Washington Wizards: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky
The Wizards would be ecstatic if they still ended up with Gilchrist even after getting stuck with the third pick rather than the second. He gives them a big presence up front who can be a leader, though they still don't get a pure scorer.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina
It won't necessarily be shocking if Barnes is selected in the top five, though I think it's a bit high for him. He hasn't yet proven he can create offense for himself, though that won't necessarily be a problem as long as Kyrie Irving is in town to set him up.
5. Sacramento Kings: Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas
Robinson, aside from Davis, is probably the most complete player in this year's crop and absolutely shouldn't fall farther than this. He's ready to step in and help right now, which is more than you could say for many of the risky prospects expected to go in this year's lottery.
6. Portland Trail Blazers: Andre Drummond, C, UConn
This is considered a shock to some, since many expect Drummond to go no later than second or third. Falling out of the top 10 is somewhat unheard of for the best center available.
He may be a big guy and he may be a Jim Calhoun product, but that doesn't mean Drummond is anywhere near ready to be a star in the NBA. He's been accused of being soft, which is a trait he shares with some of the other big men on this board. If he can't shed that label, he could become the next Hasheem Thabeet.
There has rarely been a big man with a soft reputation who's managed to shed it to become a superstar in the NBA. The Blazers should take a cue from history here and let Drummond continue his free fall to the end of the lottery.
7. Golden State Warriors: Perry Jones III, PF, Baylor
As shocking as it is for Drummond to go as low as sixth, it's equally shocking for Jones to go as high as seventh. But this is a move that will pay off for the Warriors, if they decide to keep this pick rather than trading it.
This is high for Jones. He, like Drummond, has that dreaded soft reputation, but the difference between the two of them is this: After his freshman year at Baylor, Jones could've been a lottery pick, but he didn't feel like he was mentally or emotionally ready for the NBA grind, so he opted to return to school. It takes a lot of maturity and self-assurance to do that, and it's an indication that Jones understands his flaws and is willing to put in the work to eliminate them.
8. Toronto Raptors: Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State
Lillard gives the Raptors two options. He's a scoring guard who can play alongside Demar DeRozan, or someone who can spell DeRozan off the bench. Lillard is small, but he's too talented to be wasted as a backup.
9. Detroit Pistons: Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State
Here's another shock: Sullinger almost falling out of the top 10. He's a wild card: He either finds the motivation to prove people wrong and dominate despite his 6'9" stature, or he can't compete in the NBA and has trouble staying in shape, to boot.
The Pistons definitely need frontcourt help, and if Sullinger falls into their laps, there's no way they don't take him. He's had two years to develop with the Buckeyes and has been an excellent leader. He's strong and competitive, but he's not as athletic as many of the other 4's. On top of that, he's had conditioning issues, and if you're already not super-athletic, the last thing you want to be is anything less than 100 percent in shape.
Sullinger could've gone a lot higher than this, so he's a borderline steal for Detroit at No. 9. Even down at No. 9, though, he's still going to have to put in a lot of work to prove the critics wrong.
10. New Orleans Hornets: Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina
Even though this draft is considered weak at point guard, Marshall is still the perfect option for the Hornets. He's the best distributor in the NCAA and will be excellent paired with Anthony Davis.
11. Portland Trail Blazers: Jeremy Lamb, SG, UConn
New Orleans' gain is Portland's loss, because the Trail Blazers needed a true point guard, and there aren't many good options left. As a result, they'll go for Lamb, who might not be able to start right away but was still one of the better guards in a competitive Big East last year.
12. Milwaukee Bucks: John Henson, PF, North Carolina
Given how much Henson improved between his sophomore and junior campaigns, he's more reward than risk at this point. He still has a lot of room to develop—physically and in terms of skill—so a year or two down the line, he could be a force.
13. Phoenix Suns: Terrence Ross, SG, Washington
It's somewhat of a shock for the Suns to go for Ross here over someone like Austin Rivers, but Ross plays excellent defense and can really get hot offensively.
14. Houston Rockets: Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina
The Rockets need a center, and Zeller is as good an option as anyone. He's athletic for a big guy and runs the floor well, and he can pull in a lot of rebounds.
15. Philadelphia 76ers: Terrence Jones, PF, Kentucky
A player like Ross would really fit the Sixers' needs—they need a lights-out shooter off the bench—but with him unavailable, they'll go for Jones, who isn't as proven offensively but has displayed flashes of brilliance on both ends of the floor. Inconsistency, however, continued to be an issue for him last season.
16. Houston Rockets: Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State
Moultrie is another high-risk, high-reward player, but he's more reward than risk. At 6'10", he has the size and the build he needs to succeed, and he is still effective offensively, even from long range. There are just a few concerns about his effort level.
17. Dallas Mavericks: Austin Rivers, SG, Duke
The Mavericks need to pick up a young guard in this year's draft, and Rivers is the best one left. On a veteran team, he stands a good chance of shedding his selfish rep, which is really the only thing holding him back from being universally top-rated.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves: Dion Waiters, PG/SG, Syracuse
Skill-wise, Waiters shouldn't fall this far. He's a versatile guard who can come off the bench next season and make a solid offensive impact, but the fact that he doesn't have a true position is causing some teams to hold off.
19. Orlando Magic: Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois
Leonard was once a lock for the lottery, but he's slowly sliding because he's still very raw. He has potential, though, and fits in well in Orlando because they're going to be looking to rebuild their frontcourt pretty soon.
20. Denver Nuggets: Tony Wroten Jr., PG, Washington
Talent-wise, he has what it takes to go in the lottery. He can take it to the hoop and he has the perfect frame at 6'5" and 205 pounds. But he can play out of control sometimes, and he has a selfish rep.
21. Boston Celtics: Fab Melo, C, Syracuse
Of all the big men available, Melo is perhaps the most raw of them all. Over time, though, he has the potential to be a star, and he makes sense for the Celtics, who have needed to add size for about two years now.
22. Boston Celtics: Jeffery Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt
Taylor makes too much sense for Boston. He plays spectacular defense and can add offense off the bench. That should be music to the ears of a team whose bench didn't score a point until the second half of Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals.
23. Atlanta Hawks: Royce White, SF, Iowa State
White definitely needs the right coach to succeed—he has an anxiety disorder that could make teams wary. But talent-wise, he's a no-brainer here.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers: Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor
If Miller proves that he can be the same player he was before ACL surgery, he could be yet another cog in the Cavs' young machine that's heading right for the playoffs next season.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Moe Harkless, SF, St. John's
At 6'8", he's definitely on the small side for a 3, but he has a 7'2" wingspan that makes up for it and he runs the floor incredibly well.
26. Indiana Pacers: Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky
Given how much he improved during his one year under John Calipari, it's not hard to believe that Teague could develop into a solid starting point guard a couple of years down the line.
27. Miami Heat: John Jenkins, SG, Vanderbilt
In terms of lights-out shooters, Jenkins is one of the best still available. Bringing him in to spell Dwyane Wade would make the Heat even scarier offensively.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure
Nicholson isn't incredibly hyped and could really go anywhere after 20th, but he has good size at 6'9" and 222 pounds, and he can immediately be very valuable in a backup role.
29. Chicago Bulls: Doron Lamb, SG, Kentucky
Lamb doesn't get as much love as his Kentucky teammates, despite being incredibly consistent in two years with the Wildcats. Plus, he's a good teammate and can be absolutely lethal from long range.
30. Golden State Warriors: Draymond Green, SF, Michigan State
Green is a safe pick here, if he's still available. At 6'6", he's small for a 3, but he makes up for it with his range as a shooter and his NBA IQ.
