NFL Week 1: Can Colts Win Without Peyton Manning and Other Predictions

The NFL season is finally upon us.  It all start Thursday with the last two Super Bowl champions facing off at Lambeau Field.  There is a lot of optimism as teams make a push for the Super Bowl.  A lot of teams come into Week 1 with questions that still need answering. 

Can the Indianapolis Colts survive without Peyton?  Is Osi Umenyiora's knee injury a bad omen for the New York Giants?  Will Cam Newton follow in the footsteps of JaMarcus Russell or Sam Bradford?  Can Houston finally get the playoff gorilla off their backs?

All of these questions will be answered over the course of the season but some may have an answer week one.  So here are my predictions for each game.

New Orleans at Green Bay

New Orleans wins if:  Last seasons' fourth rank defense can hold back the full fire power of the Green Bay offense.  With the talent now in the backfield in New Orleans, the Saints do not necessarily need to sling the ball all over the field.  They have at least three talented running backs that bring depth to a position that was lacking previously.  Best defense is a good offense and the Saints have that with Drew Brees, Marquis Colston, Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles on the team.

Green Bay wins if:  There talent stays healthy throughout the game.  The Packers lost both Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant early last season yet still went on to win the Super Bowl.  Health will be a big thing in defense of the Super Bowl title.  With Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the Packers can sling it around with the best.  The running game needs to show up for the Packers to keep there defense fresh against another gunslinging team in New Orleans.

My Take:  Green Bay hold home field advantage in what will one of the highest combined scoring games this season.  This could easily have both teams approaching 40 points a piece. Even with two quality defenses, the offenses for both are just too good to be held down.  The Packers start the season on the right foot 42-38.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Pittsburgh wins if:  Roethlisberger does not turn the ball over and stays in the game.  He will feel heat all game with the Baltimore Ravens defense rushing him all game.  With a lot of talent on both sides of the ball the Steelers will need that talent to shine to win in Baltimore. The defense needs to rattle Joe Flacco early and often. With James Harrison and Lamar Woodley on the edge and Polamalu from wherever, they will be able to do it.

Baltimore wins if:  Flacco can handle the Steelers' defense.  Finally they Ravens have the talent on offense that they have always had on defense.  Adding Lee Evans during the preseason may finally get the Ravens over the hump against the weakness of the Steelers defense in the cornerbacks.  The aging defense also needs to keep pressure on Roethlisberger all game and contain him in the pocket.

My Take:  Pittsburgh wins in a contest to 10 points.  With healthy defenses for both the Steelers and the Ravens this will be their games to loose, because after this game neither team will be healthy the rest of the season.  It will be which team gets a big play on offense first.  Pittsburgh wins 10-7.   

Detroit at Tampa Bay

Detroit wins if:  Matthew Stafford gets the ball to Charles Johnson early and often.  With that said the offensive line needs to protect their investment and not have Stafford get knocked out early.  Regardless the Lions' defense may be the best it has been in years if not ever with Suh and company rushing the quarterback.  They need to put pressure on Josh Freeman early to rattle him. 

Tampa Bay wins if:  Josh Freeman does what he does best and makes a comeback victory.  A lot of people believe that the Buccaneers over achieved last season but I believe Freeman is the real deal at quarterback.  This is not the shut down defenses of old for the Buccaneers but it is a very talented one.  If they can keep Stafford guessing and make him have to find another target other than Johnson and they can slow down the talented Lions' offense.  

 My Take:  Freeman does not continue the success late in games against these Lions.  These are not your father's Lions.  This is a playoff caliber football team that is playing with a chip on it's shoulder. Both the defense and the Stafford have a lot to prove and both will do it against the Bucs.  Lions win 31-21.

Atlanta at Chicago

Atlanta wins if:  The defense can put Jay Cutler on his back early and often.  Atlanta has not been known for a stellar pass rush but against an inconsistant offensive line with the Bears, even the worst pass rushing team will look like a bunch of all-pro rushers.  They have the pieces on the offense to be dangerous now that there is more than one target other than Roddy White.  Play-action will be key as they need to suck in the talented Chicago linebacking core. 

Chicago wins if:  Jay Cutler's rear end stays mostly clean.  Also Matt Forte needs to repeat his rookie season not his sophomore one.  Also Roy Williams needs to prove that he is a top caliber wide receiver not the ball dropping whiner he was in Dallas.  Julius Peppers needs to get to Matt Ryan.  If not one of the other pass rushers on the line needs to step up and give the Falcons' offensive line a reason not to double team Mr Peppers.

My Take:  This will be a close game.  Both teams have the talent to be playoff teams and this could actually be another playoff preview.  However Atlanta will spoil the Chicago home opener with Matt Ryan leading the Falcons to a last second victory.  Atlanta wins 24-21.

Buffalo at Kansas City

Buffalo wins if:  The potential in the young players on this team finally shows some reality the Bills finally have something.  However in preseason that was not showing at all.  Ryan Fitzpatrick has been given many opportunities to prove he is a NFL caliber quarterback and while he has not had much assistance, he needs to step up and use the talent around him.  They have talented running backs in Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller and Spiller has the potential to bring it to the house every time he touches the ball.  The Bills defense just needs to step up and play above themselves otherwise they will get overwhelmed. 

Kansas City wins if:  Matt Cassel stays within himself and does not turn the ball over.  With a talented defense and some good talent around Cassel, the Chiefs are on track to continue off the success from last season. 

My take:  Kansas City wins this easily.  Buffalo's defense will be over matched and Fitzpatrick will be rattled early by Tamba Hali and the Kansas City defense.  The twelfth man will be present for the opener but will not be needed this week as the Chiefs role 35-7.

Tennessee at Jacksonville

Tennessee wins if:  Matt Hasslebeck can return to his form from a couple years ago while in Seattle.  When healthy Hasslebeck was one the better quarterbacks in the NFL.  While he is 35 years old, he can still be a quality starter for Tennessee.  Also, Chris Johnson needs to show that missing the preseason will not bite him in the butt like it has so many others.  

Jacksonville wins if:  Maurice Jones-Drew has a big day.  He is the semblance of this team and there really is not much around him.  They have a few good pieces but Jacksonville is re-building. The defense also needs to stop aforementioned Chris Johnson.  Or at least make his impact minimal.

My take:  Before Tuesday I would have said Jacksonville but this has turned into a coin flip because the Jaguars cut David Garrard.  While Blaine Gabbert is not getting the start, he will see the field sooner rather than later.  Releasing Garrard will bite the Jaguars in the butt week 1 as the Titans come into Jacksonville and leave with a victory 17-10.

Indianapolis at Houston

Indianapolis wins if:  Kerry Collins has learned the offensive scheme and is efficient and replacing the future hall of famer Peyton Manning.   Manning will not be playing week one.  Collins a good replacement and will lead this team till Peyton returns.  The defense needs to make stops against the potent Houston offense.  Houston's defense will key on Reggie Wayne.  Pierre Garcon or Dallas Clarke will need to step up.  With already two receivers questionable depth at the wideout spots will be key.

Houston wins if:  the defense shows it has improved from last season.  They have the pass rushers but coverage was a big worry last season.  They couldn't do it.  Even with a normally pass happy offense in the Colts coming to town, they should be able to with stand the on-slaught as depth is already a concern in Indy.  If Arian Foster's hamstring is healthy then he needs a big day as well. 

My take:  Even without Peyton Manning the Colts will make this interesting.  While without the all-pro quarterback, the Colts on paper do not look good they can pull a victory off.  However that is not going to happen this week.  Houston will prove they are finally ready to take the steps necessary to becoming a playoff team and it starts with a victory week one against the Colts 35-21.

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Cincinnati wins if:  Andy Dalton plays within himself and does not make any rookie mistakes.  Easy way to do that is hand the ball to Cedric Benson every chance Dalton gets.  AJ Green needs to step into being the #1 wide receiver spot right away.  Rookie wide receivers seem to have growing pains and with a rookie quarterback at the helm as well there will be growing pains all around in Ohio this season.

Cleveland wins if:  Madden cover boy Peyton Hillis continues the form that got him on the cover.  Colt McCoy needs to continue his improvement under center for the Browns.  He has done a good job so far since he became the starter middle of last season and they were much better than the 5-11 record last season.

My take:  There will be growing pains for both Ohio teams this season with a rookie quarterback in Cincinnati and a second year pro in Cleveland.  However the winner of the battle for Ohio will have momentum to start the season.  That being said there is more talent along the banks of Lake Erie than there is along the Ohio River.  Cleveland will win this week by showing they are not the same old Browns 28-21.

Philadelphia at St Louis

Philadelphia wins if:  Michael Vick does not get hurt early.  The talent is in place for big things in Philadelphia that an early injury to  the $100 million dollar man would be a bad omen for the Eagles.  The offensive line needs to prove it can protect their investment.  On defense the linebackers need to prove that they are not going to be as big a weakness as they seem to be on paper. 

St Louis wins if:  Sam Bradford play is exceptional.  But that will be hard against the three headed monster in the Eagle defensive backfield.  Stephen Jackson needs to have a huge game as well.  Best defense is a good offense.  Also a good offense keeps a potent Eagles offense on the sideline.  The defense needs to get to Vick early and as often as possible.  

My take:  The NFL version of the New York Yankees, the Philadelphia Eagles make their first stop of the season in St Louis.  The Rams just missed the playoffs last season and would like to improve off the better than expected 2010 season. That will not happen week one as Philadelphia will prove too much for the Rams to handle.  This game will be a laugher as Philly rolls 42-14.

Minnesota at San Diego

Minnesota wins if:  Donovan McNabb rebounds from his bad season in Washington and returns to his winning ways.   Adrian Peterson will also need to touch the ball every chance because he will wear a defense down and will take a long run to the house if given the chance.  Also one the starting wide receivers needs to step up and prove why they were brought to Minnesota.  Percy Harvin health issues have derailed his young career and Bernard Berrian has not been the threat he was in Chicago. Jared Allen also needs to prove he has not fallen off and improves off a less than stellar 2010 campaign.

San Diego wins if:  They finally do not have the slow start to the season that the Chargers have become known for.  This is too good of a team to have been 9-7 and miss the playoffs last season.  Philip Rivers is one of elite quarterbacks and with a healthy Antonio Gates and a full season with Vincent Jackson, the Chargers offense will be as good as ever.  The defense needs to contain Adrian Peterson otherwise this will possibly turn into a shoot out. 

My take:  Minnesota has been said to be a quarterback away from being a Super Bowl contender.  They need more than just a quarterback now.  That being said they can compete with the top teams if health is on their side.  However the Chargers will finally breakout early this season as they have a lot to prove after missing the playoffs last season.   Chargers will win a close call at home 27-24.

New York Giants at Washington

New York wins if:  all the off-season distractions surrounding defensive end Usi Umenyiora do not get in the of the game.  Also numerous injuries beat down the Giants during the preseason that could also derail the team.  Eli Manning needs to be patient and not force the issue against a ball-hawking defense.  With the departure of Steve Smith to Philadelphia, Mario Manningham needs to step up and prove he is the second wide receiver on this team behind Hakeem Nicks. 

Washington wins if:  The revamped defense proves it can tackle and play the 3-4 system.  With really no distractions off the field other than a healthy quarterback battle, the Redskins did a good job fixing a down trodden defense last year.  Starting quarterback Rex Grossman must prove to the fans and to the coaching staff that he is the man in Washington and becomes more consistent.  Tim Hightower needs to continue where he left off in the preseason.  

My take:   I believe that the revamped Washington defense will show much improvement in week one against the Giants.  Ryan Kerrigan will prove why the Redskins drafted in the first and provide the second pass rusher opposite Brian Orakpo.  The Giants will probably be favored but I would expect the upset in this one.  Washington surprises the Giants 24-21 with Graham Gano actually making a field goal in the last seconds.

Carolina at Arizona

Carolina wins if:  Cam Newton does not make rookie mistakes against a mediocre but ball hawking defense in Arizona.  Newton gets an easy test in his first start as the face of the Carolina franchise.  Carolina still has the two head monster in the backfield with D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart and they should use this to help the rookie.  If not Steve Smith and new addition Jeremy Shockey are still high caliber targets in the passing game.

Arizona wins if:  Kevin Kolb gets protection from the offensive line and gets the ball in the hands of all world wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald.  This offense is a far cry from the offense of Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, and the Fitz.  The defense needs to get after the Panthers' rookie quarterback and make him make bad decisions.  If he does, the Arizona defense needs to take advantage get turnovers.

My take:  This will be a close game.  Both teams have some fire power on offense and both have somewhat unproven quarterbacks.  Which ever does not turn the ball over will get the victory.  With that said, I do not think the Cardinals have what it takes to defend home turf and Kevin Kolb is not the next Kurt Warner.  Cam Newton will get his first career victory in another close game 21-17

Seattle at San Francisco

Seattle wins if:  Tavaris Jackson finally shows he can be a quarterback in the NFL.  The Seahawks sent fan favorite Matt Hasslebeck packing only to pick up Jackson who has not showed consistency during the preseason.  He has familiar target in Sydney Rice so the Seahawks have that working for them.  The defense needs to show improvement otherwise even the quarterback problems in San Francisco will look good against them.

San Francisco wins if:  Alex Smith finally shows he can be a quarterback in the NFL.  Sounds familiar doesn't it.  Smith has not had a consistent offensive scheme and again a change at offensive coordinator will not be in the favor Smith.  However seeing so many different schemes should be a blessing in disguise.  The 49ers need to get Frank Gore in the offense early and often.  He's the prototypical new NFL running back.  Good runner and good out of the backfield catching the ball. 

My take:  This is a hard game to pick as both teams are evenly matched.  This really comes down to which quarterback makes the least mistakes throughout four quarters.  With one of the best placekickers in the game with the 49ers in David Akers, the winning field goal goes to San Francisco 17-16.

Dallas at New York Jets

Dallas wins if:  Tony Romo rebounds from the shoulder injury and plays like an all-pro quarterback.  Also Felix Jones needs to step up and become the feature back that he is now supposed to be.  He has the homerun threat each time he touches the ball but can he needs to carry the load with Marion Barber's departure from Dallas.  The aging defense needs to provide some pressure on Mark Sanchez. 

New York wins if:  Plaxico Burress can be the receiver he once was.  He will probably be Mark Sanchez's favorite target and with three great receivers, the Jets have plenty of targets around the field.  Shonn Green and LaDainian Tomlinson need to pick up from last season and continue where they left off during the season.  One of the other running backs needs to step up as well to keep both Green and Tomlinson fresh and healthy.

My take:  If you are expecting Tony Romo to be the Dallas Cowboys savior and bring them back to prominense, you are sadly mistaken, at least this week. The New York Jets defense will be too much and confuse Romo and turn the ball over.  There will also be a lot of emotion in the Jets camp as it is the tenth anniversary of 9-11.  The Jets will take that emotion and run with it to a victory 31-17.

New England at Miami

New England wins if:  the offensive line keeps the Dolphins pass rush off Tom Brady.   Also Chad Ochocinco needs to show he can be the star receiver again and/or one of the other receivers steps up because Wes Welker is probable for the opener.  Also Albert Haynesworth needs to prove he is not the big headache he was in Washington.

Miami wins if:  Chad Henne plays the best game of his life.  Reggie Bush needs to show he can be a primary back and Brandon Marshall needs to be given the ball.  The defense needs to hold the Patriots out of the end zone as much as possible.  It is almost a given that the Patriots will get in the end zone but if the Miami defense can make them kick field goals they give the offense a chance. 

My take;  A fanbase that wants nothing to do with its starting quarterback is not a good fanbase.  Sorry Miami but LeBron James does not play football and even with him I do not think the Dolphins have a chance.  Tom Brady and the Patriots offense will be too much for the Dolphins defense and win 35-17.

Oakland at Denver

Oakland wins if:  Al Davis sits in his suite and does not make a call to the field.  Since that probably will not happen then Jason Campbell needs to have a good game and be consistent against a decent defensive backfield in Denver.  Darrius Heyward-Bey needs to step up and become the number 1 receiver that Oakland drafted him to be.  On defense, cornerbacks Stanford Routt or Chris Johnson need fill the big shoes of the departed Nnamdi Asomugha.

Denver wins if:  'Mr Consistency' Kyle Orton does not look over his shoulder at either Brady Quinn or Tim Tebow.  Orton is the best quarterback in Denver and is a proven winner.  Knowshon Moreno needs to rebound and have a better year and become an elite running back.  The defensive front seven needs to get pressure on Jason Campbell.  With a good defensive backfield they should be able to do it.

My take:  Oakland made strides last season by improving to 8-8.  However the owner possibly destroyed that momentum with firing the head coach.  With this being a rivalry game to end the first week of the NFL season this will be a great game.  I think it comes down to which quarterback can play a consistent ball game.  I think Denver keeps home field advantage and the Kyle Orton led Broncos will defeat the Jason Campbell led Raiders 35-31.