Predicting Buyer or Seller for All 30 MLB Teams at 2026 Trade Deadline
Adios, MLB All-Star Break.
Hello, trade deadline hysteria.
We churn out trade content year-round, but now that we're two-and-a-half weeks away from the August 3 deadline, this is when it starts to feel real.
Yet, with a mere 15-ish games per team remaining until that great buyer/seller line in the sand, a third of the league still feels like a domino that could fall in either direction.
We'll briefly touch on seven definite buyers (and what they need), six likely buyers (and what they need) and seven definite sellers (and what they have to offer) before offering up a judgment call on the 10 in-betweeners, presented in alphabetical order by location.
Postseason odds noted within are the consensus percentages from Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs and PECOTA, as of Wednesday morning.
Definitely Buying
1 of 13
Atlanta Braves (92.6% postseason odds)
Seeking: Starting pitching
Chris Sale could win the NL Cy Young, but the rest of this rotation could cost the Braves the NL East crown that looked inevitable about a month ago. Every non-Sale Atlanta pitcher who has made multiple starts this season has a FIP of 4.30 or worse, and innings leader Bryce Elder ended the first half with an 11.00 ERA in his last four starts.
Chicago Cubs (82.8% postseason odds)
Seeking: Pitching of any kind
The Cubs have one pitcher who has been worth more than 1.0 WAR according to Baseball-Reference or FanGraphs, and that one pitcher—swingman Ben Brown—has been on the IL for a month with a stress reaction in his neck. Starters. Closers. Middle relievers. The Cubs could use 'em all.
Los Angeles Dodgers (100% postseason odds)
Seeking: Another bombshell of an acquisition
If the Dodgers need anything, it's some pitching depth as they wait for Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow to get healthy. And between their loaded farm system and their seemingly limitless payroll, they're well-positioned to land whoever ends up being the most valuable player moved at the deadline. It might not be Tarik Skubal, but it could be Freddy Peralta.
Milwaukee Brewers (98.9% postseason odds)
Seeking: Rotation depth
Kyle Harrison recently landed on the IL with the always ominous "forearm tightness." Jacob Misiorowski was scratched from his final start of the first half with arm fatigue. And who knows when we'll see Brandon Woodruff again following his latest shoulder issue? All of a sudden, this Brewers rotation is looking mighty thin.
New York Yankees (97.4% postseason odds)
Seeking: Catcher
Even with Austin Wells hitting a pair of home runs in New York's final few games before the All-Star Break, the Yankees have a year-to-date "as catcher" triple-slash of .176/.251/.270. Everyone has been connecting them to Minnesota's Ryan Jeffers for a while now, but Cincinnati's Tyler Stephenson is exponentially more likely to actually end up on the trade block.
Philadelphia Phillies (78.5% postseason odds)
Seeking: Outfielders, preferably of the right-handed hitting variety
With Adolis García done for the year (and struggling to hit when he was healthy) and Justin Crawford logging 88 games at a replacement level, the Phillies have been a mess in the outfield. They hope they've found something in Derek Hill and Gabriel Rincones Jr., but they'll definitely be looking to upgrade.
Tampa Bay Rays (98.3% postseason odds)
Seeking: Bat(s)
The big three of Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Díaz has been fantastic, but the Rays have gotten precious little production out of the rest of their lineup and could really benefit from another table-setter.
Very Likely Buying
2 of 13
Boston Red Sox (39.3% postseason odds)
Seeking: Middle infield
A vivid reminder that a lot could still change in the 2.5 weeks remaining until the trade deadline, Boston won 14 of its last 16 games, going from "surely selling" to "probably buying" in what felt like the blink of an eye. Now, instead of putting Aroldis Chapman, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and more up for grabs, they're probably going to be looking to upgrade a 2B/SS situation that hasn't provided much value.
Chicago White Sox (51.8% postseason odds)
Seeking: Starting pitching
How aggressive they'll be remains to be seen. They may well elect to just let it ride and continue playing with their house money from this impressive start. However, they certainly won't be selling. And if they're looking to make any upgrade, it's going to be in the rotation.
Cleveland Guardians (66.9% postseason odds)
Seeking: Offense of any kind
Though tied with Chicago atop the AL Central, the Guardians could desperately use an infusion of offense. Some of that will come in the form of José Ramírez returning from his broken hamate in the next couple of weeks, but they've had the second-lowest scoring offense (3.8 runs per game) since his injury and now rank dead last in the AL in scoring for the year. He can only fix so much.
Miami Marlins (41.8% postseason odds)
Seeking: Bullpen
Similar to the White Sox, we're not entirely convinced the Marlins will actually be buying, but it's looking pretty certain that they won't be selling. Wouldn't make a lick of sense to send Sandy Alcantara packing when he was such a pivotal factor in their MLB-best 26-11 record since the beginning of June. They really ought to be in the market for a few relievers, though.
Seattle Mariners (67.6% postseason odds)
Seeking: Right-handed hitting
Seattle's inability to hit southpaws (MLB-worst .632 OPS vs. LHP) has become the full-blown narrative of an underwhelming season. To some extent, they just need Julio Rodríguez (concussion) to get healthy and Cal Raleigh to start looking anything like his old self. But as they sit a game below .500 in a fight to even make the playoffs, they might need to do more than just wait on their stars to shine.
Texas Rangers (59.1% postseason odds)
Seeking: Starting Pitcher
Jack Leiter (ankle) might be done for the year and had a 5.29 ERA before suffering that injury in mid-June. And then Jacob deGrom (glute) was scratched from his final start of the first half and could be headed for an IL stint of his own. Jordan Montgomery is nearing a return after 22 months on the shelf, but can they bank on him to be the savior that he was in 2023? Either way, a little more rotation depth would be swell here.
Definitely Selling
3 of 13
Athletics
Plausible Offerings: C Jonah Heim, RHP Mark Leiter Jr., RHP Aaron Civale
The A's probably aren't going to part with anyone who they can keep beyond this season, as things were looking promising prior to ending the first half in a 3-17 tailspin. But Heim (8 HR, .745 OPS in 39 games played) could be an intriguing chip with several teams looking for help at catcher. Leiter's 2.89 FIP will draw plenty of interest, as well.
Cincinnati Reds
Plausible Offerings: 3B/DH Eugenio Suárez, 1B/DH Nathaniel Lowe, C Tyler Stephenson, RHP Brady Singer, LHP Caleb Ferguson, LHP Brock Burke, RHP Pierce Johnson
Like the A's, the Reds probably aren't going to be moving anyone controllable beyond this season. However, that's quite a stockpile of impending free agents, highlighted by Suárez, who quietly has started to heat up with seven home runs in his last 27 games. If he stays warm for the next couple of weeks, he might be one of the biggest sluggers on the move for a second consecutive year. Lowe also has an .862 OPS vs. RHP this season and could be coveted for a platoon situation.
Colorado Rockies
Plausible Offerings: C Hunter Goodman, OF Mickey Moniak, RHP Antonio Senzatela, RHP Jimmy Herget
If the Rockies are willing to move Goodman with three years of arbitration eligibility remaining, he might be the crown jewel of this year's trade deadline. If not, there's nothing worth getting excited about here. Senzatela has come crashing back to earth with an 8.16 ERA over his last 13 appearances, and Mickey Moniak's splits (.667 OPS away; .588 OPS vs. LHP) will probably scare everyone away.
Kansas City Royals
Plausible Offerings: RHP Michael Wacha, RHP Seth Lugo
There are also a few rentals Kansas City will look to move, most notably Lane Thomas in a market starving for usable outfielders. Might also be teams willing to take a gamble on LHP Kris Bubic, who might be back from the IL right at the deadline. But whether the Royals make any sort of legitimate deadline waves will hinge on whether they're willing to budge on Wacha and Lugo, each of whom is controllable through 2028.
Los Angeles Angels
Plausible Offerings: LHP Reid Detmers, RHP José Soriano, RHP Kirby Yates
See: Royals, Kansas City. Both Detmers and Soriano are arbitration-eligible for two more seasons, and would presumably fetch several pretty pennies if the Halos are willing to move them. If not, they might be a pretty quiet seller despite residing in the AL West cellar. Yates has a 2.16 ERA in his last 19 appearances and plenty of experience as a high-leverage reliever. But that's about it.
New York Mets
Plausible Offerings: RHP Freddy Peralta, RHP Luke Weaver, LHP A.J. Minter, LHP Brooks Raley, OF Tyrone Taylor
There may also be some interest in Clay Holmes, but he's rehabbing a broken leg and has a player option for next season. Even without including him, the Mets could put together a decent fire sale. Peralta hasn't been himself this season, but he's going to be one of the most coveted rentals on the market. And those three relievers have a combined ERA of 1.83 and 25 holds. (Weaver is signed through 2027, but Minter and Raley are both impending free agents.)
San Francisco Giants
Plausible Offerings: Everyone not named Logan Webb or Bryce Eldridge?
2B Luis Arraez and LHP Robbie Ray might be the two biggest rentals on this year's block, and RHP Tyler Mahle has pitched well enough lately that he'll likely be on the move, too. The Giants are also reportedly willing to move the big contracts of 1B/DH Rafael Devers, SS Willy Adames, 3B Matt Chapman and OF Jung Hoo Lee. Let's see how far they're willing to burn things down.
Arizona Diamondbacks
4 of 13
Current Situation: 49-47, 2.5 GB for WC, 22.1% postseason odds
Upcoming Schedule: 3 vs. STL, 3 vs. ATH, 1 @ STL, 3 @ WAS, 3 @ PIT, 3 @ CLE
If They're Buying: First Baseman
Ildemaro Vargas was an MVP candidate 31 games into the season with a staggering 1.131 OPS. Since then, he has a .478 OPS in 200 trips to the plate, while Opening Day first baseman Carlos Santana was DFA'ed after three months on the IL. Arizona also DFA'ed Pavin Smith last week. Even a replacement-level 1B would be a considerable upgrade here.
If They're Selling: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
The 2026 All-Star has a 2.29 ERA and two years of team control remaining. He also has an expected ERA of 5.06 and the Snakes might want to sell high to get out from under what felt like an awful contract a few months ago. They also have a bunch of rentals to offer, including right-handed relievers Kevin Ginkel, Taylor Clarke, Ryan Thompson and Jonathan Loaisiga, each with a sub-3.00 ERA for the year.
Verdict: Depends on Corbin Burnes' rehab
Burnes had a setback in his Tommy John recovery about a month ago, but the hope is still that he'll return by Labor Day. If that remains the case 17 days from now—and if they don't crash and burn against a moderately difficult upcoming schedule—the Diamondbacks will probably be more of a buyer than a seller. Hard to see them steering aggressively in either direction, though.
Baltimore Orioles
5 of 13
Current Situation: 46-51, 2 GB for WC, 20.0% postseason odds
Upcoming Schedule: 3 @ HOU, 3 @ BOS, 3 vs. ATL, 3 @ DET, 3 vs. PHI
If They're Buying: Bullpen Help
Ryan Helsley hasn't been able to stay healthy, and Rico Garcia's improbable 0.68 ERA through 28 appearances has ballooned into a 6.00 ERA over his last 16 outings. Moreover, the Orioles have gotten absolutely nothing out of the left-handed portion of their 'pen this season, with Grant Wolfram the only southpaw who isn't presently injured or in the minors. If they're in it to win it, doing something about what has been a 5.38 ERA in the eighth inning this season is a must.
If They're Selling: LHP Trevor Rogers and OF Taylor Ward
Since the beginning of June, Rogers has kind of quietly been one of the hottest pitchers on the planet, making seven starts with a 1.73 ERA. And while Ward is barely on pace for 10 home runs (after hitting 36 last year), his .387 on-base percentage is tops among players who may well be on the move. Both are impending free agents, as are RHP Andrew Kittredge and currently injured RHP Chris Bassitt and 1B Ryan Mountcastle. Could be a profitable sell without giving up anything for 2027 and beyond.
Verdict: Selling
That upcoming schedule is brutal, with nary a game against a team that is anything close to toast. While the O's could directly help themselves out by thriving on the road against fellow AL wild card hopefuls Houston, Boston and Detroit, they probably need to go 9-6 or better to justify throwing any additional money at this season. And if they don't, the offers for Rogers and Ward might be too good to ignore.
Detroit Tigers
6 of 13
Current Situation: 44-52, 3.5 GB for WC, 6.5 GB in AL Central, 23.7% postseason odds
Upcoming Schedule: 3 @ LAA, 3 @ CHC, 4 vs. KCR, 3 vs. BAL, 3 @ ATH
If They're Buying: Right-handed hitting
Save for Dillon Dingler's All-Star campaign of 19 home runs and the 43 games that Gleyber Torres was healthy, Detroit's right-handed bats have been positively dreadful. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be much on this year's trade block that can fix that problem. But the aforementioned Taylor Ward could be a godsend in Detroit if the Orioles make him available.
If They're Selling: LHP Tarik Skubal and plenty more
The fire sale here could be epic. You've no doubt heard plenty in the past few months about what the Tigers could fetch for a two-month rental of Skubal, but they also have RHP Casey Mize, 2B Gleyber Torres and RHP Jack Flaherty as impending free agents, plus half a dozen others with one year of team control remaining.
Verdict: Buying
Detroit has already been hot, posting an AL-best 22-14 record since the beginning of June. And the Tigers couldn't ask for a more favorable schedule between now and August 3, with 10 games against definite sellers and three more at home against a mediocre Orioles squad. Throw in the fact that the AL Central feels wide open and that Detroit just had that incredible 31-13 finish to make the playoffs two years ago and it would be a bit shocking at this point if they threw in the towel.
Houston Astros
7 of 13
Current Situation: 47-51, 1.5 GB for WC, 3 GB in AL West, 23.5% postseason odds
Upcoming Schedule: 3 vs. BAL, 3 vs. MIA, 3 @ CHW, 3 @ LAA, 3 vs. TEX
If They're Buying: Outfielder
With the exception of Yordan Alvarez's occasional starts in left field, the outfield has been—unsurprisingly, if you look back at anything that pretty much everyone wrote about them in the offseason—a major problem for the Astros. Cam Smith is more than adequate in right field, but both left and center have been revolving doors of "mediocre at best."
If They're Selling: SS Jeremy Peña, 1B Christian Walker or 3B Isaac Paredes
Houston presumably wouldn't move more than one of these infielders. However, all three have one year of team control remaining, and any of the three could be one of the most noteworthy position players on the trade block. They also have several impending free agent relievers to put up for grabs, including southpaw Steven Okert with a 2.31 ERA.
Verdict: Slightly Buying
Those postseason odds of 23.5 percent feel a bit off, right? If the Astros hadn't suffered late collapses twice against the Rangers in their final series of the first half, they'd be in the postseason picture right now. Moreover, they are as healthy now as they have been all season, and could be adding Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski from the IL to the list of starting rotation options within the next few weeks. A big second half surge wouldn't be shocking, even with a quiet deadline.
Minnesota Twins
8 of 13
Current Situation: 48-49, tied for last WC, 3 GB in AL Central, 32.1% postseason odds
Upcoming Schedule: 3 @ CHC, 4 @ CLE, 3 vs. ATH, 3 vs. KCR, 3 @ SEA
If They're Buying: Relievers
Yoendrys Gómez has blossomed into a respectable closer for the Twins since getting DFA'ed by the Rays in early May. But take his 1.71 ERA out of the equation and Minnesota has gotten a 5.61 ERA from its bullpen this season. Considering the Twins traded away virtually their entire bullpen last summer, it's little surprise that this is an area of concern.
If They're Selling: C Ryan Jeffers, RHP Joe Ryan, OF Trevor Larnach, RHP Bailey Ober, DH/1B Josh Bell
We'll spare you the Byron Buxton speculations, as both he (with a full no-trade clause) and the Twins brass have repeatedly insisted it ain't happening. But Jeffers is an impending free agent. Bell is, too. Ryan, Larnach and Ober each have one year of arbitration eligibility remaining. And Minnesota didn't shy away from selling short-term controllable players during last year's deadline fire sale.
Verdict: Depends on that homestand, but leaning selling
Six in a row at home against the A's and Royals ought to be the ticket that keeps Minnesota within striking distance of the postseason picture heading into the trade deadline. Should the Twins squander that gift from the schedule makers, though, goodness knows they haven't been much of a buyer over the past 3.5 years, even when it made sense for them to go for it at the deadline in both 2023 and 2024. They'll probably do a whole lot of nothing. But trading away Jeffers in a seller's market seems more likely than trading for someone of equal or better value.
Pittsburgh Pirates
9 of 13
Current Situation: 50-47, 2 GB for WC, 33.4% postseason odds
Upcoming Schedule: 3 @ CLE, 3 @ NYY, 3 vs. CHC, 3 vs. ARI, 4 @ CIN
If They're Buying: Relievers
The Pirates are tied for the MLB lead in runs scored to go along with their pair of All-Star starting pitchers in Paul Skenes and Braxton Ashcraft. But they've been treading water around .500 all season long thanks in large part to a bullpen that's just kind of 'meh' throughout. Getting even one trusted reliever could be a game changer.
If They're Selling: 2B Brandon Lowe, LHP Gregory Soto
The Pirates only have four impending free agents, and it's hard to imagine there would be much interest in Marcell Ozuna or Dennis Santana with the mutually disappointing seasons they've been having. But Lowe has been everything they were hoping he might be with 21 home runs and an .803 OPS. There would be a long line of interested parties if he hit the trade block.
Verdict: Not Selling
After what was an aggressive offseason by their standards, it wouldn't make sense for the Pirates to wave the white flag at this point—particularly when Lowe is their only trade chip with any real value. Whether they'll actually buy or just stand pat, though, will be determined by how well they hold their own against a tough first 12 games out of the break.
San Diego Padres
10 of 13
Current Situation: 48-48, 3.5 GB for WC, 12.6% postseason odds
Upcoming Schedule: 3 @ KCR, 4 @ ATL, 3 @ MIA, 2 vs. COL, 4 vs. SFG
If They're Buying: Starting Pitchers
Six Padres have made at least five starts this season. Michael King has been great. The other five—Walker Buehler, Griffin Canning, Lucas Giolito, Germán Márquez and Randy Vásquez—have all been replacement level, at best. Even with the hope that both Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove will be back from their elbow injuries at some point in August, this rotation could use some additions.
If They're Selling: LHP Adrián Morejón, 1B Ty France, RHP Jason Adam...RHP Mason Miller?
The "Would the Padres trade away Mason Miller?" narrative took off earlier this month, but it's probably because people started looking at San Diego's multi-year payroll situation and struggled to find anything else worth considering for the trade block.
Verdict: Your guess is as good as mine
Doing nothing at the trade deadline isn't exactly the A.J. Preller way. And after this franchise sold for $3.9B this past spring, there might be even more pressure than usual for their president of baseball operations to really pick a lane.
But at .500 overall with underperforming bats, injured arms and nothing obvious to sell if selling, goodness only knows what they'll decide to do. Notably, they do play 22 of their remaining 66 games against teams we've classified as "definitely selling." Maybe that pushes them to buy?
St. Louis Cardinals
11 of 13
Current Situation: 50-45, 1 GB for WC, 27.7% postseason odds
Upcoming Schedule: 3 @ ARI, 3 @ LAA, 1 vs. ARI, 3 vs. CIN, 4 vs. CHC, 3 @ TOR
If They're Buying: Impact Arms
Simply put, the Cardinals don't have any pitching that scares you. Their best-case scenario for Game 1 of the postseason (should they make it) is Michael McGreevy for six innings, followed by one inning apiece from George Soriano, JoJo Romero and Riley O'Brien. Would be great if they could get a Robbie Ray and/or a Michael Wacha to add some punch and some experience to the pitching staff.
If They're Selling: RHP Dustin May, LHP JoJo Romero, OF Lars Nootbaar, RHP Ryne Stanek
The thing about St. Louis trading away all its veterans during the offseason is it pretty much has nothing to put on the trade block now. The above four players and the injured Ramón Urías are the only Cardinals who aren't under team control through at least 2028. And none of the four would figure to fetch all that much on the trade block.
Verdict: Tentatively Buying
Similar to the White Sox, Marlins and Pirates, it's difficult to imagine the Cardinals selling with at least 50 wins already in the bank and an underwhelming supply of impending free agents to offer. But for as ahead of schedule as they are this year, it's even more difficult to imagine they'll do anything too drastic to compromise the farm system. They'll do something about the pitching staff, but not enough to be deemed one of the biggest winners of the deadline.
Toronto Blue Jays
12 of 13
Current Situation: 45-51, 2.5 GB for WC, 19.3% postseason odds
Upcoming Schedule: 3 vs. CHW, 4 vs. TBR, 3 @ BOS, 3 @ WAS, 3 vs. STL
If They're Buying: Starting Pitcher OR Left Field
Shane Bieber is back. Max Scherzer is almost back. But can either one be counted on to round out the rotation beyond Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage? At six games below .500, the Blue Jays have pretty well run out of time to wait for their former Cy Young winners to heal up and figure things out. If they're throwing more money at this team, it's most likely going to be on the rotation.
If They're Selling: RHP Kevin Gausman, OF/DH George Springer, OF Daulton Varsho, RHP Shane Bieber, RHP Max Scherzer, RHP Yimi García
Even if the Blue Jays admit defeat on 2026, they are nowhere close to a rebuilding situation and presumably wouldn't be interested in moving anyone under team control beyond this winter. But what a rental fire sale this could be. Neither Gausman nor Springer has been as good as we've grown accustomed to seeing them over the years, but both would spark a bidding war. So would Varsho and Bieber.
Verdict: Threading the Needle
With an estimated tax payroll north of $300M and with an average attendance north of 40,000 per home game, the Blue Jays aren't going to give up and sell unless they stumble out of the break and those postseason odds plummet down to five percent or worse. But in a seller's market, maybe they can get creative to address their starting rotation and lack of slugging (aside from Kazuma Okamoto).
Washington Nationals
13 of 13
Current Situation: 48-49, 4 GB for WC, 7.8% postseason odds
Upcoming Schedule: 3 @ ATH, 3 @ COL, 3 vs. ARI, 3 vs. TOR, 4 @ ATL
If They're Buying: Pitching, pitching and more pitching
Foster Griffin has been a pleasant surprise, even getting an All-Star nod. Cade Cavalli has also been solid (when not sparking benches-clearing brawls.) But the rest of this pitching staff has been a mess, allowing more runs than everyone except for the Rockies and Athletics. They entered the year hoping to have Josiah Gray, DJ Herz and Trevor Williams back by now, but none of those returns is exactly on the horizon.
If They're Selling: LHP Foster Griffin, 1B Luis García Jr....SS CJ Abrams?
Griffin is the no-brainer, thriving on a one-year, $5.5M deal. García is a maybe, with 20 home runs, an .871 OPS and one year of arbitration eligibility remaining. (For as dire as Arizona's first base situation is, the D-Backs might offer Washington a slight haul for him.) Abrams is unlikely to happen, but is the big one everyone has been speculating about for a good eight months at this point. If they trade him away amid what has been a career season with two years of control remaining, they might as well announce that they don't expect to contend again any time soon.
Verdict: Selling Slightly
They won't move Abrams. They probably won't move García, either. With this entire offense set to return in 2027, Washington could be a real contender if it legitimately addresses the pitching staff this winter. But they'll probably unload Griffin if they can get a decent package of prospects for him.
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