Updated Post-Trade Deadline 2026 MLB Playoff Predictions

Now that Major League Baseball's 2026 trade deadline has come and gone, it's full speed ahead to the finish line with updated predictions for the upcoming postseason.

Some of the October hopefuls took major strides to improve their chances of not only making the playoffs, but winning the World Series.

Others...well...not so much.

Can anyone topple the mighty Dodgers?

How great is the race for the NL's No. 6 seed going to be?

And do we really need anyone from the AL West in the postseason?

We've got updated division-by-division projections for the 2026 playoffs, as well as a ranking of the four most noteworthy acquisitions within each division. For a good number of the trades that went down, the most noteworthy acquisition was actually one of the prospects heading in the direction of the seller. But, where possible, our focus will be on additions that actually help the team this season.

Standings and statistics current through the start of play on Thursday, August 6.

AL East

Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

Adley Rutschman

Current Standings:
Tampa Bay Rays (68-46, current AL No. 1 seed)
New York Yankees (64-51, 4.5 GB, current AL No. 4 seed)
Boston Red Sox (62-51, 5.5 GB, current AL No. 5 seed)
Baltimore Orioles (56-58, 12 GB, 0.5 GB for No. 6 seed)
Toronto Blue Jays (54-61, 14.5 GB, 3 GB for No. 6 seed)

Four Biggest Deadline Acquisitions:

1. Adley Rutschman to the Boston Red Sox. They gave up an absolute haul to get him, including arguably the best prospect moved at the deadline in right-handed pitcher Anthony Eyanson. But catcher was a black hole in this lineup, and outbidding the Yankees to get the best backstop available was a near-must. Tarik Skubal to the Dodgers was the most star-studded of the deadline deals, but this one may have the biggest impact on playoff picture.
   
2. Liam Hicks to the Tampa Bay Rays. It was shocking that the Marlins were willing to part with one of their best hitters, and equally shocking that they weren't able to command more for him. The Rays certainly aren't complaining, though, drastically upgrading what had been one of the weaker points in their lineup. He swatted a grand slam in his second plate appearance with his new club.
   
3. Freddy Peralta to the Tampa Bay Rays. His debut was a colossal disaster, allowing seven earned runs to the Rockies. The Rays needed arms, though, even before losing Shane McClanahan to the IL a few days before the deadline, and they were able to get a rental of Peralta without giving up anything close to a top prospect.
   
4. Luis García Jr. to the New York Yankees. Bit of a weird move here, as the Yankees already have quite the lefty-hitting first baseman in Ben Rice. But with Paul Goldschmidt posting a .495 OPS in July, sure, why not? García did at least go yard in his first game with the Yankees.

Updated Postseason Predictions

Both the Orioles and Blue Jays did way more selling than buying and figure to fade from the postseason conversation, even though the O's, in particular, are still right there for a wild card spot.

But if the Yankees are feeling a desperation to win this division and ultimately put an end to their World Series drought, it didn't show at the deadline. They didn't upgrade at catcher, which everyone agreed was an imperative. They also didn't do anything to improve the bullpen, aside from the addition by subtraction of Camilo Doval and Jake Bird.

Meanwhile, both the Rays and Red Sox made big swings and might leave the Yankees in the dust.

New York should still make the playoffs, thanks to a nice cushion above the gaggle of .500-ish semi-contenders. But if you could tell us right now that the Yankees are either going to win this division or miss the playoffs altogether, we'd have to guess it's the latter.

AL East Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
Wild Card Teams: Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees

AL Central

Ross Turteltaub/Getty Images

Luis Castillo

Current Standings:
Chicago White Sox (59-54, current AL No. 2 seed)
Cleveland Guardians (57-58, 3 GB, currently tied with Texas for AL No. 6 seed)
Minnesota Twins (56-59, 4 GB, 1 GB for No. 6 seed)
Detroit Tigers (55-59, 4.5 GB, 1.5 GB for No. 6 seed)
Kansas City Royals (48-67, 12 GB)

Four Biggest Deadline Acquisitions:

1. Foster Griffin to the Cleveland Guardians. The highway robbery of this year's trade deadline, Cleveland got an All-Star starting pitcher for a quartet of lottery-ticket prospects. This one went down with about 30 minutes to spare, so maybe the Nationals overplayed their hand with an over-performing pitcher and just had to settle for what they could get. But what a luxury for a playoff bubble team that also landed both Nathaniel Lowe and Jo Adell to at least somewhat address its lineup woes.
   
2. Jeff Hoffman and A.J. Minter to the Minnesota Twins. The Twins also scooped up Dean Kremer from the Orioles in what was one of their most aggressive deadline buys in recent memory. If they were going to be serious about staying in this postseason race, though, upgrading the bullpen was the non-negotiable atop their to-do list. And they nailed it. Hoffman struggled early in the year, but his FIP always suggested he would turn things around. With a 1.21 ERA over his last 23 appearances, he certainly has.
   
3. Luis Castillo to the Chicago White Sox. To put it lightly, it hasn't been a vintage year for Castillo. He goes at least five innings far more often than not, though. That's noteworthy for a bullpen that has been taxed as much as any in all of baseball thus far this season. Even if he's merely a suitable No. 5 starter the rest of the way, that would be an upgrade for this rotation.
   
4. Brenton Doyle to the Chicago White Sox. Not to toot my own horn, but Doyle was one of the players I had highlighted as a buy-low trade candidate a week before the deadline. He missed more than two months on the IL, returning to the Rockies for a whole two games before they traded him to the White Sox. If he's able to get back to anything close to what he was in 2024, this could be quite the steal. Of course, that's a colossal "if."

Updated Postseason Predictions

Which of the above pitchers will make the biggest impact in his new home?

If Griffin maintains his roughly 3.00 ERA while Castillo does the same with his roughly 5.00 ERA, Cleveland may well overtake Chicago before we reach the finish line.

Or if Kremer can rebound from an abysmal final few starts with Baltimore to help spruce up a rotation that has been kind of ugly beyond Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley, it's more than plausible Minnesota leapfrogs both of the teams currently ahead of them.

We have to switch something, though, as this division always seems to have some drastic swings after the trade deadline. And, to that end, Cleveland has the easiest remaining schedule in the majors, per Tankathon.

AL Central Winner: Cleveland Guardians

Wild Card Teams: Chicago White Sox

AL West

Houston Astros/Getty Images

Daulton Varsho

Current Standings:
Houston Astros (59-57, current AL No. 3 seed)
Texas Rangers (57-58, 1.5 GB, currently tied with Cleveland for No. 6 seed)
Seattle Mariners (56-59, 2.5 GB, 1.0 GB for No. 6 seed)
Athletics (45-59, 13 GB)
Los Angeles Angels (43-71, 15 GB)

Four Biggest Deadline Acquisitions:

1. Taylor Ward to the Seattle Mariners. Slugging 130 points worse than last season, Ward presumably wasn't all that coveted on the trade block, as evidenced by the modest package Seattle had to part with to rent him. But he has one of the best on-base percentages in all of baseball, and he's a righty with an .839 OPS against lefties—two things the Mariners desperately needed.
   
2. Daulton Varsho to the Houston Astros. Despite winning 11 out of 12 games heading into the deadline, Houston's outfield situation had grown pretty dire. Varsho is nowhere near the slugger he used to be, but beggars can't be choosers. He has been the starting center fielder and clean-up hitter for the Astros since his arrival.
   
3. Chase Silseth to the Texas Rangers. Silseth had a 2.72 ERA in his 47 appearances for the Angels this season, and Texas definitely needed to add a right hander to its bullpen. (Though, he has already blown one save with Texas.) The Rangers also picked up Logan O'Hoppe's contract in this bizarre trade within the division.
   
4. Arjun Nimmala to the Los Angeles Angels. This is one of just two cases in this article where we're highlighting a prospect as a big acquisition, but there's not much else worth mentioning among the AL West's buyers. The Halos had to give up José Soriano to get him, but the 2023 first-round pick immediately becomes their most tantalizing prospect.

Updated Postseason Predictions

Does anyone actually want to win this division?

While teams like the Cubs, Padres and Red Sox did some serious buying from their spots on the postseason bubble, the trio jostling for first place in the AL West seemed to kind of mutually agree that it'd be cool to produce the first .500 (or worse) division champ in MLB history.

Credit to Seattle for at least adding a right-handed bat, but the M's could have (and really should have) done so much more with their loaded farm system. Could be a photo finish between Seattle and the AL Central first runner-up for the final wild card spot.

At least they did something to try to improve, though. Texas entered the deadline more concerned with its payroll than its playoffs odds, and it sure showed.

AL West Winner: Houston Astros

Wild Card Teams: N/A

NL East

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Luis Arraez

Current Standings:
Atlanta Braves (69-45, current NL No. 2 seed)
Philadelphia Phillies (61-54, 8.5 GB, currently tied with Arizona for NL No. 5 seed)
Miami Marlins (58-57, 11.5 GB, 3.0 GB for No. 6 seed)
Washington Nationals (56-60, 14 GB, 5.5 GB for No. 6 seed)
New York Mets (49-66, 20.5 GB)

Four Biggest Deadline Acquisitions:

1. Luis Arraez and Caleb Kilian to the Philadelphia Phillies. Inserting Arraez at second base certainly had a problematic domino effect on Philadelphia's defense, but that's a small price to pay for an elite source of base hits, is it not? The Phillies also got a reliever with some closing experience in the deal, and didn't have to give up Gage Wood or Aidan Miller to make it happen.
   
2. Brooks Raley to the Philadelphia Phillies. Along with Kilian, Raley was tagged for multiple earned runs in Wednesday's loss to the Nationals. Not a great start to either's tenure in Philadelphia, but Raley had a sub-2.00 ERA in 45 appearances with the Mets this season. There's a good chance he'll be their go-to set-up man by October.
   
3. Tyler Mahle to the Atlanta Braves. Mahle's full-season numbers are rough, but he entered August on a six-game run with a 3.06 ERA since returning from the IL in late June. It's nowhere near the big move that Braves fans were hoping Alex Anthopoulos would be able to pull off, but he could provide a legitimate boost to this beleaguered starting rotation.
   
4. Jefferson Rojas to the New York Mets. Atlanta didn't do much, and Miami, Washington and New York all approached the deadline with a seller's mindset. And Rojas was the most intriguing prospect acquired among those three sellers. The 21-year-old infielder is now the best piece of New York's farm system.

Updated Postseason Predictions

The Phillies definitely did more to improve at the deadline than the Braves did.

But was it enough for them to close this considerable gap?

Probably not, but Atlanta does have one of the toughest remaining schedules, including seven against the Phillies in the span of 10 days in September. The Braves host Tampa Bay in between those pivotal sets, and play on the road against the Cubs and Astros immediately after the latter series. If the Phillies can take five of those seven head-to-head games, this thing could turn on a dime.

Miami and Washington saw fit not to bother trying to make this a three-horse or four-horse race, but this still could be a fascinating race.

NL East Winner: Atlanta Braves

Wild Card Teams: Philadelphia Phillies

NL Central

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Kevin Gausman

Current Standings:
Milwaukee Brewers (71-43, current NL No. 1 seed)
Chicago Cubs (66-49, 5.5 GB, current NL No. 4 seed)
St. Louis Cardinals (57-58, 14.5 GB, 4 GB for No. 6 seed)
Pittsburgh Pirates (57-59, 15 GB, 4.5 GB for No. 6 seed)
Cincinnati Reds (55-58, 15.5 GB, 5 GB for No. 6 seed)

Four Biggest Deadline Acquisitions:

1. Kevin Gausman to the Chicago Cubs. Though Gausman hasn't been quite the ace that he used to be, he was quite unlucky this season with the Blue Jays. He has been inducing weak contact at the highest rate of his career and has a 3.50 FIP to suggest he may well be Chicago's best bet for starting Game 1 of the postseason.
   
2. Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor to the Chicago Cubs. Holmes is working his way back from a broken leg, three appearances into his rehab assignment. He also has a $12M player option for next season. Players like that don't often get traded. But Shane Bieber was in pretty much the exact same boat one year ago and ended up being exactly what the Blue Jays needed. Maybe Holmes returns in short order and plays a major role for the Cubs, while Taylor bounces around the outfield, keeping the regulars fresh.
   
3. Luke Weaver to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Buccos also added Kirby Yates, Lake Bachar and Camilo Doval in their quest to plug all of the holes in their problematic bullpen. And while it may be too little too late for a team that has now lost 10 of its last 14, aside from Yates, they're all controllable through at least next season.
   
4. Dustin May and JoJo Romero to the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew had a pretty underwhelming deadline for a team with the best record in baseball, but May could be a crucial addition to this injury-riddled rotation. He has made 10 quality starts this season and has a 2.92 ERA and a 10.2 K/9 over his last five appearances.

Updated Postseason Predictions

The Cubs were arguably the biggest winner of the deadline, adding two potential postseason starters in Gausman and Holmes. They also snagged Braxton Garrett from the Marlins, who has made 65 big-league starts in his career and has a 2.90 ERA in 16 Triple-A appearances this season. He, too, could be a factor down the stretch.

But catching Milwaukee might be asking too much, as Kyle Harrison returned on Wednesday from nearly a month on the IL. He gave the Brewers five innings of dominance in a win over the Pirates, while Jacob Misiorowski continues to shove every time he takes the mound. Even if May struggles in his new home, Milwaukee might have enough to maintain this lead.

Tough to see any of the other three finding their way back into the wild card picture, though. St. Louis sold off several key pieces, Pittsburgh is too banged up and Cincinnati might have forgotten that the trade deadline was even happening.

NL Central Winner: Milwaukee Brewers

Wild Card Teams: Chicago Cubs

NL West

Brendon Baranov/MLB Photos via Getty Images

Casey Mize

Current Standings:
Los Angeles Dodgers (69-46, current NL No. 3 seed)
Arizona Diamondbacks (61-54, 8 GB, currently tied with Philadelphia for NL No. 5 seed)
San Diego Padres (59-56, 10 GB, 2 GB for No. 6 seed)
San Francisco Giants (48-67, 21 GB)
Colorado Rockies (45-70, 24 GB)

Four Biggest Deadline Acquisitions:

1. Tarik Skubal to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The blockbuster of the trade deadline saw the twice-reigning champions acquiring the twice-reigning Cy Young winner. The Dodgers gave the Tigers quite the outfield prospect in Zyhir Hope, but no problem for them. They still have three elite outfield prospects and are now even more of an overwhelming favorite to win it all.
   
2. Robbie Ray to the San Diego Padres. Needless to say, San Diego needed starting pitching, as it continues to wait on Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove to return from the IL. So they rented both Ray and Casey Mize for a couple months, hoping that this veteran continues to pitch at a high level. Ray had a 1.65 ERA across his 10 appearances in June and July and could be the Padres' Game 2 starter if they make the postseason.
   
3. Casey Mize to the San Diego Padres. His debut with the Padres was a nightmare, allowing eight earned runs in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. But if Mize stays healthy, he could be the most important player traded not named Skubal. The former No. 1 overall pick had a 2.70 ERA in his 16 appearances with the Tigers this season, this after being named an All-Star in 2025.
   
4. Lars Nootbaar to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Snakes almost neglected to do anything ahead of the deadline, and did nothing to address their two biggest problems, those being the starting rotation and first base. But at least they now have a healthy left fielder who is eligible to participate in the postseason? Maybe Nootbaar can improve what had been a .688 OPS in 48 games played with the Cardinals.

Updated Postseason Predictions

The baseball gods appear to have a problem with the Dodgers landing Skubal, as they have been consecutively swept by the Red Sox and Cubs. But they still have a comfortable lead atop this division and may well still end up with the NL's No. 1 seed.

The big question here is whether Arizona can hold off San Diego for a spot in the postseason after doing virtually nothing to improve.

The Diamondbacks should be getting both Michael Soroka and Jordan Lawlar back from the IL soon, and hope to get both Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen back at some point before the finish line. But banking on getting healthy while the Padres actually did something about their shortcomings is likely to be a lethal one-two punch in the desert.

NL West Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers

Wild Card Teams: San Diego Padres

Predicting the Postseason Bracket

Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Shohei Ohtani

Wild Card Round

AL No. 3 Cleveland Guardians over AL No. 6 Chicago White Sox
AL No. 4 Boston Red Sox over AL No. 5 New York Yankees

NL No. 6 San Diego Padres over NL No. 3 Atlanta Braves
NL No. 5 Philadelphia Phillies over NL No. 4 Chicago Cubs

ALDS/NLDS

AL No. 4 Boston Red Sox over AL No. 1 Tampa Bay Rays
AL No. 2 Houston Astros over AL No. 3 Cleveland Guardians

NL No. 1 Milwaukee Brewers over NL No. 5 Philadelphia Phillies
NL No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers over NL No. 6 San Diego Padres

ALCS/NLCS

Boston Red Sox over Houston Astros

Los Angeles Dodgers over Milwaukee Brewers

World Series: Los Angeles Dodgers over Boston Red Sox

In the American League, throw a dart and hope for the best.

The Yankees are the betting favorite to win the ALCS, albeit with a 19-24 record since mid-June. During that same time, the Red Sox have gone 33-9. But the Astros have also been hot for a while, and the Rays have the inside track to the No. 1 seed.

Boston feels like the most complete team of the bunch, though, and with Adley Rutschman, Trevor Story and Roman Anthony hopefully returning from the IL within the next few weeks. Would be huge if they can get Garrett Crochet back in some capacity for the postseason, but it might not even be necessary.

And in the National League, it's the world vs. LA.

The Dodgers have lost six in a row, but with Blake Snell about to return from the IL, Tyler Glasnow ideally not far behind him and Shohei Ohtani eventually starting to pitch again, they have an embarrassment of riches on the mound with which no one can compete.

Anything can happen in October, though. And if the Dodgers run into the Phillies in either a best-of-three or best-of-five series, that's the one NL rotation that reasonably could knock out the favorites early. But all signs point to a three-peat. (And a lengthy lockout a month later.)