Fantasy Football Busts You Need to Avoid in 2026

There is one word that strikes fear into the hearts of fantasy managers like no other.

That word is "Bust."

There are many things that can go wrong during a fantasy season, but the first is to blast a hole in the roster before the season even begins by drafting a player who comes nowhere close to justifying his lofty asking price. By drafting a bust.

Some of those busts we can't see coming. Players get hurt or just have a bad campaign that defies logic and reason. Those landmines get us all from time to time.

But you can see calamity coming with some others. Sometimes it's a history of durability issues, or the situation around them, or an asking price that is just out of whack relative to their potential.

Stepping on a landmine you can't see is one thing. Driving into a tornado you can is another.

And dark clouds are gathering with these players in 2026.

QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

AP Photo/John Raoux

ADP: QB1

This first bust has a lot less to do with Allen as a player than it does with the idea of taking the first quarterback in a fantasy draft being busted as a matter of principle.

To be fair, the Buffalo Bills QB actually lived up to those lofty expectations in 2025—the first quarterback drafted on average a year ago, he finished in that very spot.

That doesn't happen especially often with the first signal-caller off the board.

However, per Andrew Erickson of Fantasy Pros, Allen's reliance on rushing production for his fantasy value makes a repeat performance somewhat unlikely:

"In 2025, he hit a six-year low in passing yards per game (215.8), TD passes (25), and fantasy points per game (22.0). The rushing production drove his fantasy football production, and that doesn't seem like it will go away anytime soon. Eventually, Allen's rushing will fall off, but it does not appear that is the plan for Buffalo in 2026. However, I do think it might change sooner rather than later. The Bills' QB suffered a foot injury toward the end of last season. And Buffalo had the league's healthiest offense in 2025, according to adjusted games lost (FTN)."

Frankly, Allen wasn't good value even a year ago. He managed less than one fantasy point per game more than Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams, who was available over 10 rounds later.

In leagues that start just one quarterback, elite fantasy QBs just aren't worth the cost—or the hole they leave at running back or wide receiver.

QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

AP Photo/Terrance Williams

ADP: QB6

There's a phenomenon in fantasy football known as "chasing ghosts"—managers who target players based more on past performance than their upside in the present.

That appears to be the case this year with Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Last year, Hurts finished ninth in fantasy points at the position, three spots lower than where he's being drafted. Two seasons ago, he was eighth at the position.

As Matt Brandon wrote at SI, the second half of last season doesn't inspire a ton of confidence that a rebound is coming:

"Before Philadelphia's bye week, he fell below the 20-point mark just twice. After the bye, he reached that threshold in only two of his final eight games, reflecting both his own regression and a decline in the Eagles' offensive efficiency. His passing numbers also cooled late in the season. Hurts failed to surpass 190 passing yards in seven of his final 10 games, including the postseason, as opposing defenses found ways to limit Philadelphia's offense. The loss of 209 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns compared to the previous year also removed much of the weekly floor fantasy managers had grown accustomed to."

Now, Hurts has a new offensive coordinator (again) and there are questions at wide receiver after A.J. Brown was traded to New England.

Fantasy drafters aren't just betting on a Hurts rebound; they're drafting him as if he's a lock to return to elite form, leaving little margin for another middling year.

That's the kind of move that backfires more often than not.

RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

ADP: RB3

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey isn't just a bust waiting to happen in 2026. He is viewed by some analysts as the biggest bust in all of fantasy football this year.

Age is only part of the problem. He is a 30‑year‑old coming off one of the heaviest workloads we've seen, and history is brutal to backs in that exact spot, no matter how good they are.

There's the career-high 413 touches McCaffrey had in 2025—and what that historically means for running backs. Including the Niners star, there have been 11 instances since 2016 where a running back surpassed 370 touches in a season.

The average decline in PPR production for running backs coming off a 370-touch season is just under 48 percent. That's the difference between being last year's overall RB1 in PPR points and finishing outside the top 20.

There's what generally happens to running backs coming off a 2,000-yard season. There have been nine backs who have attempted to back up a campaign with 2,000 total yards since 2010. The average decline in PPR production among those backs is well over 50 percent.

That's in no small part because we've seen this movie with McCaffrey before—twice. In 2019, he became just the third running back ever to post 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in the same season, then cratered the following year with only 225 rushing yards in three games and a career‑worst 3.8 yards per carry. When he cleared 2,000 total rushing and receiving yards again in 2023, he followed it up by appearing in only four games in 2024.

History keeps telling us the same story: When McCaffrey hits that high‑volume, elite‑production level, the crash comes fast. Betting on him at RB3 means pretending it won't happen again.

RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

AP Photo/AJ Mast

ADP: RB4

We might as well go big again.

At first glance, Jonathan Taylor's numbers a year ago were absolutely elite. He led the league in carries (323) and rushing touchdowns (18), and he finished third in the NFL in rushing yards with 1,585.

As Adam Dove of The Fantasy Couriers (h/t FantasyPros) noted, though, peel things back a bit and Taylor's RB4 PPR finish last year is a tale of two seasons:

"He is a great player, but last year, after a very strong start (against mediocre defenses), he fell back to earth and helped crush championship hopes for many managers. From week 9-18, Taylor only had a single RB1 week (the wild game in Germany). Other than that week, he only scored 3 times and averaged 63 yards/game. Taylor won't be RB30, as he was in week 12 vs the Steelers, but owners shouldn't expect to get tier 1 RB performances in 2026."

There are multiple questions on the Indianapolis offense, whether it's the health of quarterback Daniel Jones' Achilles or a new-look wideout room that lost Michael Pittman Jr. in the offseason. Taylor is going to be staring at loaded fronts on the regular until those questions are answered.

Workload could also be an issue. Taylor dodged "The Curse of 370" in 2025, but his 369 touches were his most since 2021. In 2022, Taylor missed six games and finished outside the top-30 in PPR points among running backs.

For managers picking in the front half of Round 1 who can't land Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs this year, 2026 is a good year to take a wide receiver.

WR Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Mike Stewart

ADP: WR7

In fairness, Drake London has shown elite fantasy potential in the past. He has four years with 100 targets in as many seasons.

Two years ago, London turned a whopping 158 targets into a 100/1,271/9 stat line and a fourth-place finish in PPR points. Last year, he was eighth at the position in PPR points per game before getting hurt.

The targets are likely to be there for London again in 2026. But as Ted Chymz of Fantasy Pros noted, that may not be enough for him to live up to his asking price given the team's situation at quarterback:

"A target-dominant wideout with essentially no competition, Drake London isn't likely to be a complete bust. But with Tua Tagovailoa and/or Michael Penix Jr. under center, we shouldn't overlook the possibility that Atlanta's offense completely implodes, turning London from a solid WR1 into a volatile WR2."

Tagovailoa in particular is a terrible fit for what London does best: stretching defenses. Last year, he averaged 6.7 intended air yards per attempt, 29th among quarterbacks.

Fantasy drafters have talked up London as a potential fantasy star from the day he hit the NFL. We saw that in 2024. But that is his only 1,000-yard campaign in four seasons.

You can blame the fact that London's quarterbacks have been poor. You can blame the fact that his coaches haven't been much better. Blame injuries.

But whatever the reason, London has one big year in four seasons—and most of the problems he's faced to this point in his NFL career are still there.

WR Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

AP Photo/Matt Patterson

ADP: WR11

There isn't a wide receiver going inside the top 12 whose price makes less sense than Rashee Rice's.

It's not that he doesn't have considerable fantasy upside. From Week 7 to Week 15 last year, only Jaxson Smith-Njigba of the Seahawks had more PPR points among receivers.

However, as BJ Rudell of Touchdown Wire has pointed out in his bust analysis pieces, the problem with Rice isn't the situation—it's Rice himself: his availability and volatility make his current ADP a huge leap of faith:

"His ADP assumes that, since getting drafted three years ago, every on-field setback and off-field incident is irrelevant. It's in the past and has no bearing on the future. As much as I root for Rice to succeed—just as I root for every professional athlete to succeed—we cannot unsee the past three years. The odds of him putting it all together and playing at a high level for a full season are slim, and the odds of him playing less than half the season are far bigger."

If Rice's off‑field issues and injury history aren't enough to give you pause, his ADP also assumes that Patrick Mahomes will be back under center in Week 1 after his ACL tear and instantly playing at full strength. That's a fragile foundation for a WR11 price on a boom‑or‑bust wideout.

This is more than just chasing a fantasy ceiling that Rice all but certainly won't hit for whatever reason. It's wishful thinking.

TE Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

ADP: TE5

It's rare when things go right in Cleveland—so much so that it's unsettling when they do.

By just about any objective measure, Harold Fannin Jr. smashed expectations as a rookie: the Day 2 pick from the MAC led the Browns across the board in receiving and finished a surprising sixth in PPR points among tight ends.

But as Tristan Cockroft wrote for ESPN, the only surprise in 2026 will be if Fannin can back up those numbers:

"Fannin had just about the best numbers anyone could've possibly expected from him in Cleveland last year, and the departure of David Njoku will surely heighten his draft-day price. Defenses will be more prepared for him this season, the Browns' quarterback situation remains a mess, and it's worth pointing out that Fannin has put in suspiciously little practice time throughout the offseason process. It's difficult to envision him exceeding his 2025 fantasy points total, but his ADP says that people think he will."

It's likely that Deshaun Watson (who played zero snaps with Fannin last year) will be Cleveland's Week 1 quarterback. The team spent two of its first three picks in this year's draft on wide receivers, adding KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, and there's a new head coach installing a new offense in Cleveland.

Will Fannin be an OK weekly starter? Given the lack of high-end fantasy options at the position this year, probably. But his numbers aren't getting better in a situation that got markedly worse.

TE George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

ADP: TE9

When San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle is healthy, he is an elite fantasy option. Since 2020, there has been just one season where he didn't finish in the top five in PPR points per game at the position.

But that "when healthy" caveat is a massive one. The 32-year-old has missed time in all six of those seasons, including six games a year ago.

Those missed regular-season contests aren't even the real problem this year—it's the Achilles tear that he suffered in the playoffs.

Granted, there has been no shortage of positive reports surrounding Kittle's rehab, with multiple reports indicating San Francisco thinks he could be out there against the Rams in Australia in Week 1.

However, that Achilles tear happened on January 11, and the season opener happens to be halfway across the world. Let's just get this out of the way: It's more likely Kittle starts the season on the PUP list than sees the field in Melbourne.

Beyond that, the 2026 campaign will be his 10th. He will turn 33 during it. And at the risk of sounding redundant, he just…tore…his…Achilles.

Yes, some of that injury uncertainty is baked into his discounted ADP. But much younger players have taken longer to recover from an injury that severe, and even then it's a while before they are anywhere close to being 100 percent.

With Jake Tonges on the roster, the Niners can play things conservatively. The team needs Kittle more in December than September.

For fantasy managers, the calendar works differently.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.