Exposing What Teams Will Be the Winners and Losers of a Full-Season Lockout

In an article recently published, The Baltimore Sun quoted NBPA head Billy Hunter saying "We're $800 million apart per year", and suggested the 2011-12 season will likely be wiped out due to the lockout.

The battle between owners and players looks like it's going to be ugly, as the NBA has already sued the Players Association for an "unfair labor practice charge" after another unproductive meeting took place on August 1.

The NBA felt its players would try to decertify the league the same way the NFL did, and according to players' attorney Jeffrey Kessler the move will have a "direct, immediate and harmful" effect on future CBA talks.

Every NBA team is effected by the lockout in one way or another, and so is every individual player. Some teams could greatly benefit from it (such as lottery teams), while a full-season lockout could spell doom for others such as Orlando, a team which might lose its star to free agency without an opportunity to win him over.

Of the teams effected by the lockout, there will be clear cut winners and losers. Here, I will try to identify them and explain exactly why that will be the case.

Loser: Miami Heat

The Miami Heat DO NOT want a full-season lockout.

Some will argue that the Heat will be just fine with or without a lockout, and while that is true, little good could come from a lockout if you're a Heat fan.

LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are healthy and in their primes. They narrowly missed a title last season and the possibility of NBA powers shifting over the next season can only be a negative because Miami knows its the favorite to win the title as things stand now.

The 29-year-old Dwyane Wade will be getting a year older and while it shouldn't be a problem whenever the season starts, losing a year of his prime will definitely hurt the Heat 2-3 years from now. Don't get me wrong, I don't think Wade will have a drop-off in scoring, rather it's more likely he becomes even more injury-prone after the 30-year mark.

Also, the "Big 3" in Miami will need to be paid according to their 2012-13 salaries which will be larger than their 2011-12 salaries. By default, the Heat will have a tough time looking for a supporting cast after the next CBA is in place, but the few millions more that the "Big 3" will cost just makes it that much worse.

Two Heat rotation players, James Jones and Mario Chalmers, are free agents which could get much more playing for another team, so I believe the Heat's depth will remain weak (if not get worse).

Lastly, there are young teams out in the East such as Washington, Toronto and Cleveland which are stockpiling assets and clearing cap space. It's very possible at least one of these teams could make a free-agent splash while their youth breakout, similar to what happened with Chicago last season.

Miami doesn't have to worry about losing a top-two seed, but in a scenario like this, anything can happen in the playoffs.

Winner: Toronto Raptors

The Raptors would absolutely love a full-season lockout.

The majority of Raptors' fans are in favor of 'tanking it' another season and treating themselves to a top-five draft pick again. Next years draft class is stacked and some argue it may rival the '03 draft class which included LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Darko Milicic!

A full-season lockout would likely mean the NBA will use last year's draft odds and Toronto had the third-best chance to grab the No.1 overall pick. Some suggest the other alternative to the draft would be doing the same thing the NHL did in '05, which would give teams that missed the playoffs in the past three years, while failing to win the lottery in that time, the highest odds at the top pick.

The Raptors would again be primed to grab the first-overall pick in such a situation.

The Raptors will have two very solid prospects on their roster in 2012-13 after this year's draftee Jonas Valanciunas heads over. Even though rookies aren't expected to be difference makers from the start, time and time again we see the top tier rookies do just that.

To add to the goods, the Raptors already have a very young and talented roster.

DeMar DeRozan, Amir Johnson, Ed Davis, Jerryd Bayless, James Johnson and Andrea Bargnani have all enjoyed great progress last season and are expected to go even further next year with coach Dwane Casey at the helm.

The Raptors have a ton of salary coming off the books this offseason and the cap space will carry on to the summer of 2012 which will have twice as many free agents (due to the lockout). Toronto is labelled as the Siberia of the NBA, but with such a young and stacked roster, I could imagine top-tier free agents will want to hop on board just before before blast-off.

The Raptors could follow a similar plan without a lockout, but their young core might become frustrated with enduring another losing season. With a full-season lockout, Toronto's youth should start the season with the high morale and enthusiasm they're showing now.

Lastly, if there is no lockout and Toronto postpones its rebuilding plans to 2012-13, it will miss out on the juicy free agent class that has so many talented centers (a position of need).

Loser: Orlando Magic

A full-season lockout will be terrible for the Orlando Magic.

The Magic are a cash-strapped team with a handful of old, inconsistent and overpaid players. The next CBA could cripple Orlando even further unless teams are given an amnesty clause (or Allan Houston exception).

With their current roster, Orlando will need to pull of multiple miracles in order to keep their star player Dwight Howard in town. GM Otis Smith will need to win a few gambles when approaching different trades Orlando will need to get better. Magic players will need a miracle surge of youth in order to put this team back on top of the standings.

Dwight Howard has made it clear he wants to win and currently, Orlando just doesn't look like it will get very far in the postseason both long-term and short-term.

If there's a full-season lockout, the Magic will be helpless to try and win Howard over in his final year. They'll also miss any opportunity to trade Howard for other assets if that's the way they want to go.

Overall, I strongly suggest the Magic trade their 2013 draft pick to Toronto for Solomon Alabi... :).

Winner: Washington Wizards

Every day, the Wizards are starting to look more and more like the Chicago Bulls.

John Wall is a stud and his rookie season was totally underrated. He's such a hard worker, it'll be surprising if he's not an All-Star talent whenever the league does resume.

Then you have JaVale McGee, a rare double-double center who's only starting to reach his potential as a player. The Wizards drafted a freakishly athletic big-man in Jan Vesely and the draft's top perimeter defender in Chris Singleton this June. If there's a full-season lockout, the Wizards will have the fourth-best odds at winning the lottery again.

Whether they win or not, a team with Wall, McGee, Singleton, Vesely, Crawford, Young AND a top player from next year's (stacked) draft will be primed to contend for a title very soon.

The Wizards also have a lot of cap space and a full-season lockout will mean they won't have to pay Rashard Lewis the $21 million he's owed next season. Lewis' contract is only partially guaranteed in its final season and the Wizards will have an unbelievable amount of flexibility in 2012-13.

If a team like Washington breaks out, it's no contest. The East will be the more dominant conference.

Loser: OKC Thunder

The Thunder's calculated route to relevancy has become the blueprint many bottom-dwelling teams are hoping to mimic. Using a combination of smart drafting and wise spending, the roster is full of young, talented players and isn't even near the luxury tax.

If the NBA has a full-season lockout, it could put a dent into Sam Presti's plans of maximizing Oklahoma's window at contending for a championship.

Next year, Russell Westbrook will be in the final year of his rookie contract and if the season is lost, the Thunder will have to pay him without enjoying one more year of flexibility.

Aside from Westbrook, there are a number of key rotation players who are expected to be conveniently cheap for two more seasons. If there's no season, that'll mean Eric Maynor, James Harden and Serge Ibaka will all be in their contract years when the lockout is over.

The Thunder could have traded one of them with more ease if they felt one was out of their price range, but OKC will be lucky to keep its core together for long (let alone improve the team further) if the lockout cancels the season.

Winner: Minnesota T-Wolves

The T-Wolves will be in a tight position next season. The team just celebrated the arrival of Ricky Rubio and Derrick Williams, and even though there's a bit of a logjam at the small forward position, the team has lots of young talent on the roster.

The reason why Minnesota could be in a very uncomfortable position next season is because Kevin Love, their franchise player, will be on the final year of his deal. Love has expressed his dislike with the team on many occasions and while nobody can blame him, some could say the Wolves cater to him more than any other team would.

Rookies Derrick Williams and Ricky Rubio might be great additions, but nobody is guaranteeing either of them will help this team from the get-go. There's an outside chance the Wolves make the playoffs, but that might not be enough for Kevin Love to stay.

Love could always choose to follow Dwight Howard to wherever he pleases, forming the most dangerous frontcourt in the NBA (and possibly forming another "Big 3"-in Brooklyn).

So how will a full-season lockout help the Wolves?

Well first off, they will have the best odds at winning the top overall pick next year and will have another stud rookie ready for 2012.

The current roster has received a lot of hype,and if you include a top-five draftee, it will be very illogical for Kevin Love to walk on a team which looks primed for half a decade of winning seasons.

When LeBron left Cleveland, everybody knew that team wouldn't go further than it had, but with Kevin Love there's no limits as to how good the T-Wolves could become.

Overall, Minnesota is another young team which would love a season-ending lockout.

Loser: Boston Celtics

The Celtics were the favorites to win the East halfway into the regular season last year. Unfortunately Boston's veteran core couldn't stay sharp as the rigors of the NBA season starting catching up to them.

The Celtics slowly started to fade at the worst possible time and failed to play their trademark suffocating defense against the Miami Heat in the playoffs.

Kevin Garnett is 35, Ray Allen 36 and Paul Pierce is 33. While nobody expects these guys to totally fall off, it's very possible the C's are no longer contenders in 2012-13.

The Celtics will have a large amount of salary coming off the books next summer, but we'll see if any top-tier free agent will want to sign long-term contract on a team which will have its best assets retire shortly after.

The Boston Celtics aren't in great shape next season as it stands because half of their fairly deep bench already took significant pay-cuts last season, but there's always an outside chance that the Celtics' Big-3 will contend next year.

If there's a full-season lockout, I'm sorry to say that the championship window will probably be closed for the Celtics with its current roster.

Winner: New York Knicks

The New York Knicks had to sell half the roster in order to obtain Carmelo Anthony from the Denver Nuggets last season and if there's a full-season lockout, they won't have to worry about paying up for their next superstar.

It's become clear the Knicks are after Chris Paul, but many will argue they don't have the means to snatch Paul away from the Hornets. If a trade were to go down next season, it would have to involve young, valuable rotation players such as Landry Fields, Toney Douglas and Iman Shumpert.

Though a trade like that would still be a steal for the Knicks, many fans are concerned how far the team could go without any depth on the roster after seeing the Miami Heat struggle early last season.

If there's a full-season lockout, the Knicks will have Chauncey Billups' $14.2 million contract come off the books and at the same time, Chris Paul will be a free agent. The terms of the next CBA could complicate it, but the fairy tale scenario of the Knicks' "Big 3" would come true if they could sign Chris Paul without offering what's left of their bench.

In such a scenario, the Knicks would be able to trade Shumpert and Douglas for skilled players. If that happened, I could see many veterans taking pay-cuts to join the Knicks.

For most New York fans, next season will be something to look forward to, regardless if they trade for Paul or not. But if the season is cancelled, nobody should be complaining either.

The Others:

Overall every single team will be effected by the lockout and this slideshow could include them all. Here I'll mention a few more teams which will also be effected by the lockout and a brief explanation why:

Losers:

Los Angeles Lakers: A lot of people feel the Lakers will contend for a title next season, but that's it. With Bryant, Odom, Gasol, Artest and Fisher all on the wrong side of 30, the Lakers could miss out on their last opportunity at a title with their current roster. (They can't Magically shrink Kobe/Gasol's contracts either, so rebuilding around a new core won't be as easy as some suggest)

Chicago Bulls: Omer Asik is a key player that will require pay increase, something which the Bulls will have a hard time giving.

New Jersey Nets: The Nets will have plenty of cap room after a full season is lost and they'll have a pretty good rookie from next years' draft. The problem is, Deron Williams and Brook Lopez are both up for extensions which will only allow room for one more good player and nothing guarantees they'll get one. I don't see why D-Will stays on a team with a "Big 2.5" and no bench if there's other attractive teams to go to.

Winners:

Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavs get another top-tier rookie next season, which gives them three prospects picked in the top five after only enduring one "tanked" season. Pretty good deal if you ask me.

Detroit Pistons: Any season where you don't have to pay Charlie Villanueva, Ben Gordon and Richard Hamilton is a good year. The cancelled season does nothing to Detroit's rebuilding plans and if there's an amnesty clause available to teams, the Pistons could cut their rebuilding timeline in half.

Philadelphia 76ers: Elton Brand's large contract will be in its final year after a season and since he was productive, I could see the Sixers finding a trade partner for Brand. Since the lockout doesn't really effect any of their current roster all that much, Philadelphia will welcome the little improvement they could see because of it.