Last Chance at Glory for These NBA Playoff Cores
The Larry O'Brien Trophy won't be the only thing at stake in this year's NBA playoffs.
As always, impending free agents will put their potential contracts on the line. Budding league legends will stake their legacies to outcomes in April, May and June. Squads on the rise will get to measure themselves against the titans of the basketball-industrial complex.
What may be the beginning of greatness for some of those in the 16-team field could mark the end of an era for others. Every organization has expectations, and some (if not most) are bound to fall short of those by virtue of basic math. Only one team can emerge from each series, and only one can survive long enough to take home the Association's most coveted piece of hardware.
For these six teams, most of which have been around the block before, this spring could be the last time anyone sees them in anything close to their current state.
So enjoy their runs while they last. Or, if you're not fond of how they look now, get excited for what a new group may bring next season.
Cleveland Cavaliers
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How did the Cleveland Cavaliers end up on a list like this? Because they've looked as vulnerable this season as any defending NBA champion that's returned with its core intact has in recent memory.
Cleveland's offense is still one of the league's best, thanks to LeBron James' pitch-perfect orchestration of the team's three-point fleet. But the defense has slipped to 23rd in efficiency and taken with it the Cavs' claim to the East's No. 1 seed.
It's possible that this Cleveland team will be able to flip the proverbial switch in mid-April and rampage through the playoffs, just like the Los Angeles Lakers did en route to their second straight championship in 2001. But the Cavaliers could encounter their toughest road yet through their conference, regardless of seeding.
If they stay at No. 2, they'll open against an Indiana Pacers squad that, thanks to Paul George, has its own tendency to turn on the afterburners in postseason play; spend the second round tangling with the Washington Wizards, who beat the Cavs in Cleveland last week; and play a conference final against the Boston Celtics, who've played them close this season, or the Toronto Raptors, who've upgraded since last spring's six-game East Finals.
A move back to No. 1 for Cleveland would mix up when matchups with the Wizards, Celtics and Raptors might arise, but only after pitting it against the Miami Heat, who've beaten the Cavs twice (who were albeit without Kevin Love and J.R. Smith) this season and know a thing or two about what makes James tick.
And that's all before a brutal battle in the NBA Finals, be it in a three-peat with the Golden State Warriors or James' fourth championship go-round with the San Antonio Spurs.
If James' public feud with Cleveland's front office this season was any indication, he won't be comfortable with his club standing pat if he doesn't have the Larry O'Brien Trophy in hand come June.
According to the New York Daily News' Frank Isola, the Cavs' hometown hero wanted the team to trade for Carmelo Anthony, even at Kevin Love's expense. Could those rumors rise again in the event of another titleless finish for LeBron?
For all the tales told about Love's heroics against Stephen Curry in Game 7 of the 2016 Finals, he would've been the goat of a Cavs loss after averaging 8.5 points on 36.2 percent shooting (26.3 percent from three) with 6.8 rebounds for the series.
Indiana Pacers
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The Indiana Pacers have been fortunate to avoid tumbling completely into the tank for the last three decades. Over that span, they've won fewer than 30 games just once—in 1988-89, the year before Reggie Miller emerged as an All-Star.
That could change in a hurry if the Pacers can't find a way to placate Paul George. According to ESPN.com's Zach Lowe, Indy listened to trade offers for its resident All-Star prior to the deadline and may have to worry about him bolting west next year: "The Lakers loom as a threat in free agency. The Pacers engaged at least the Celtics, Sixers, Hawks and Nuggets in trade talks for George at the deadline, though they never appeared serious about moving him, per league sources."
Any lingering concern about PG-13's commitment to the Pacers could be rendered moot this offseason. If he snags a spot on an All-NBA team, Indy can overwhelm him with a five-year supermax extension that would be tough to turn down, regardless of the remaining roster.
Then again, if George's tone after the Pacers' 115-114 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves is any indication, he might not be keen to settle for all the scratch in the world.
"There's no urgency, no sense of urgency, no winning pride," George said, per Fox Sports' Dieter Kurtenbach. "This locker room is just not pissed off enough. … We should have a professional approach, man. … As a team, we've got to have a grit and we've got to own up, man up."
Should Indiana lose leverage with George, it may have no choice but to seriously consider moving him this summer, ahead of his free-agent season, in exchange for other young pieces to fuel a rebuild. He'd be the biggest domino to fall, but not likely the last, with Jeff Teague ticketed for free agency and veterans like Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson ripe for plucking.
The Pacers can only hope, then, that Lance Stephenson's return to Naptown is, indeed, a triumphant one. Otherwise, Indy could be in for an uncharacteristically long and fitful slumber.
Los Angeles Clippers
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Whichever way you slice it, the Los Angeles Clippers look like they're headed toward another early playoff exit.
If they hang on long enough to land in the West's No. 4-5 matchup, they'll probably face the Utah Jazz, a team they've beaten three times out of four this season, albeit amid lineup changes from game to game for both squads. Should L.A. survive that brawl, it would secure a date with its biggest bugaboo: the Golden State Warriors, who've beaten the Clippers 10 straight times and 11 out of 12 since these West Coast rivals last met in the postseason.
And if the Clips slip to sixth, they'll have their hands full with the Houston Rockets' three-point bonanza right off the bat.
Neither outcome would come close to satisfying L.A.'s drive for a title and, thus, staving off major changes this summer. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, the two cornerstones of the Clippers' franchise-record six-year playoff streak, are both bound for free agency. So is J.J. Redick, the shifty sharpshooter who makes Doc Rivers' offense sing.
Paul and Griffin both have ample incentive to stick around, financial and otherwise. As Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding surmised, their returns could press the Clippers to shop their newest All-Star, DeAndre Jordan:
"If Paul and Griffin stay this summer, there's a school of thought that the Clippers' best option to change the mix is to trade Jordan, as his value has never been higher while the team's need for a top two-way wing player continues to be glaring. Even that isn't so easily done, though, as Jordan can opt out of his contract after next season—meaning his willingness to stay somewhere he gets traded is a factor in any deal.
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There's also some question as to whether Rivers will be the one to oversee any major changes. Per ESPN's Marc Stein, there's talk around the league that he could seek a reunion with the Orlando Magic at some point.
Rivers has flatly denied those rumors, but this he can't ignore: If the Clippers come up short again, his world will likely look a lot different next season, one way or another.
Memphis Grizzlies
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The Memphis Grizzlies' shift away from the style that came to define Grit N' Grind has been a long time coming. Ever since the front office moved Rudy Gay to Toronto, elevated Marc Gasol and Mike Conley into starring roles and replaced Lionel Hollins on the bench with the more pace- and three-point-oriented Dave Joerger, the Grizzlies have slowly and not-always-surely inched toward a more modern brand of basketball.
As the Memphis Commercial Appeal's Chris Herrington explained, first-year coach David Fizdale has done his part to push Memphis' milestone forward, though not easily:
"Fizdale built on these moves, cemented many of them, and added more — most dramatically spurring more three-point shooting from his frontcourt. He's encountered less resistance to modernity than Joerger initially did. But in both cases, attempts at evolution were mostly slowed by other forces. For Joerger, it was the big miss on Jeff Green and an avalanche of injuries. For Fizdale, it's been almost entirely about injury-created gulf between Theoretical Chandler Parsons and Actual Chandler Parsons. Reliance on the so-called "Core Four" has been more default than strategy.
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That uneven evolution has the Grizzlies on the cusp of capturing the West's No. 7 seed to extend the franchise-record playoff streak into its seventh season.
And while Gasol and Conley are practically guaranteed to partake in Memphis' attempt at an eighth straight postseason berth next year, courtesy of new contracts signed within the last two seasons, the rest of the cast could look drastically different.
Zach Randolph and Tony Allen, two of key faces of Grit N' Grind, are heading into free agency this summer after spending much of 2016-17 as reserves. Vince Carter, now 40, could call it quits once his contract expires. JaMychal Green could cash in on his emergent campaign as a restricted free agent in July.
If Parsons ever gets and stays healthy, the Grizzlies may soon seize the opportunity to shift from will to skill as their prevailing paradigm, for better or worse.
Toronto Raptors
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Since returning to Canada nearly four years ago, Toronto Raptors team president Masai Ujiri has been tweaking and retooling around the core that his predecessor, Bryan Colangelo, left behind.
To Ujiri's credit, he's excelled at that. On his watch, the Raptors won three straight Atlantic Division titles and are on their way to a franchise-record fourth straight postseason appearance this spring. At this year's trade deadline, he went all-in on the group he's worked to hard to improve, adding Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker to a battle-tested core of Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll.
What happens, then, if (or when) these Raptors don't survive past last year's squad, which took the Cleveland Cavaliers to six games in the Eastern Conference Finals? What if they fall well short of that standard, perhaps with a first- or second-round exit? Toronto only narrowly escaped an opening matchup against Indiana in 2016 and might not have advanced had then-Pacers head coach Frank Vogel not bungled away his team's chances in Game 7.
Like it or not, Ujiri may have to hunker down and consider the viability of the roster he has on hand. Lowry is ticketed for free agency this summer. So are Ibaka, Tucker and Patrick Patterson. Bringing the band back together could send the Raptors skyrocketing into the luxury tax for a team whose ceiling might be short of a championship. Maxing out Lowry, in particular, could leave Toronto stuck paying beaucoup bucks to a declining point guard in his mid-30s in a few years.
On the flip side, this is far and away the best run in Raptors franchise history. Will Ujiri have the wherewithal to break it up to some extent in search of some more serious hardware?
Utah Jazz
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It took the Utah Jazz five years of rebuilding to clinch a playoff spot. And it could take just one summer to tear it all down.
Gordon Hayward, whom Utah groomed into an All-Star, will likely decline his 2017-18 player option and cash in as a free agent this summer. George Hill, finishing up his first (and injury-plagued) campaign with the Jazz, will be unrestricted after this season. Boris Diaw, another San Antonio-trained sage, has a non-guaranteed $7.5 million salary for next season. And Joe Ingles, the second-sharpest three-point shooter in the NBA in 2016-17, will be restricted.
Take all those guys away, and...well, the Jazz aren't entirely screwed. They still have Rudy Gobert, a potential Defensive Player of the Year and borderline All-Star, under contract through 2020-21. With or without Hayward, Utah will have options on the wings between Joe Johnson, Rodney Hood and Alec Burks. Dante Exum and Trey Lyles are still teeming with upside.
All of which is to say, a nuclear scenario this summer wouldn't send the Jazz scrambling back to square one. But after all the time and effort spent to make Utah relevant again, would the organization be willing to regress back to square two or three?
That may depend on how this year's squad fares in this postseason. A promising playoff run, perhaps into the second round, could be enough to convince Utah's front office, led by general manager Dennis Lindsey, that it's worth it to pony up toward luxury-tax territory to keep this team together.
But that won't be up to the Jazz alone. An abrupt exit from the NBA's Big Dance may be impetus enough for Hayward to heed the beck and call coming from Boston, Indiana and elsewhere, and for Hill and Ingles to look around, too.
All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All stats and salary information via NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted and are current through Tuesday, March 28.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook, and listen to his Hollywood Hoops podcast with B/R Lakers lead writer Eric Pincus.
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