Atlanta Hawks Schedule Breakdown and Predictions for Season's Final 6 Weeks
February wasn't the Atlanta Hawks' finest hour. The squad won seven of its 11 games in the year's second month, outscoring opponents by just 1.7 points per contest.
There were reasons for the Hawks' struggles, however—their strength of schedule last month was a stiff .528, and injured sixth man Thabo Sefolosha didn't play in any of Atlanta's 11 February games.
In March and April, expect the 47-12 Hawks to return to their dominant norm.
Aside from a six-game West Coast road trip, Atlanta's schedule in the next six weeks looks relatively painless, with a .461 opponent winning percentage. Also, Sefolosha should return to the court in mid-March, according to The Atlanta Journal-Consitution's Chris Vivlamore.
Let's see how the Hawks will fare during the season's final stretch as they aim to secure their grasp of the Eastern Conference's No. 1 seed.
March 1 Through March 7
1 of 8
Key Matchup: March 6 vs. Cleveland (W)
The Hawks will face off against the 37-24 Cleveland Cavaliers in a very possible Eastern Conference Finals preview at Philips Arena on March 6. Atlanta leads the season series 2-1, winning the two most recent contests between the teams.
But the Cavaliers are a totally different team than when the Hawks last saw them on Dec. 30.
Although Atlanta was without Horford in its 109-101 victory two months ago, Cleveland didn't have LeBron James. Both players should be back for this matchup. In addition to James' return, the Cavs have brought in four new players: J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, Timofey Mozgov and Kendrick Perkins.
The reinforcements have helped Cleveland win 18 of its last 22 contests, firmly re-inserting themselves in the title contender discussion.
On this night, I predict a close, intense game that ultimately swings in the Hawks' favor, thanks to their home crowd and two full days of rest leading into the tilt.
Other Games: March 3 vs. Houston (L), March 7 at Philadelphia (W)
The 41-18 Houston Rockets, led by MVP candidate James Harden, are a scary team. Even without injured center Dwight Howard, they have a host of glue guys who know their roles and fulfill them well. It's no small feat for a team to go 19-8 without its best option inside, but that's what Houston has done.
DeMarre Carroll will do his part containing Harden, but tough-as-nails competitors like Trevor Ariza, Corey Brewer, Jason Terry and Patrick Beverley could be the difference in this tight game.
Just in case it wasn't clear already, the 13-46 Philadelphia 76ers have officially mailed this season in and are building for the future. They could have as many as nine picks in this June's draft, as Liberty Ballers' Michael Levin notes.
Basically, the Hawks are almost a lock to win this game, even though it's a road contest on the second night of a back-to-back.
Also, the Sixers' season MVP has probably been Robert Covington, so there's that.
Record: 2-1
March 8 Through March 14
2 of 8
Key Matchup: March 9 vs. Sacramento (W)
This matchup is key for the Hawks not because they're going against the 20-37 Sacramento Kings, but because of the style of basketball the Kings like to play.
Unfortunately for Atlanta and its rebounding deficiencies, Sacramento pounds the glass hard.
You may be surprised to find out the Kings have the NBA's best rebound differential (plus-4.5 per game), according to ESPN. Atlanta, meanwhile, ranks No. 27 in the same statistic, getting outworked by 2.7 rebounds per contest.
Big men DeMarcus Cousins, Reggie Evans and Jason Thompson lead the boarding brigade for the Kings, all with at least 6.5 caroms per game. While Al Horford has picked up his rebounding recently, Atlanta will have trouble keeping Sacramento off the glass.
The Hawks will use this game as a proverbial litmus test for their toughness on the boards. They will come out victorious, but not without trouble.
Other Games: March 11 at Denver (W), March 13 at Phoenix (W)
Atlanta's other two games of the week are against a couple of unraveling teams, the 20-39 Denver Nuggets and the 31-29 Phoenix Suns.
Denver is on the heels of an active trade deadline, a day of swapping which essentially saw the Nuggets proclaim their apathy toward the 2014-15 season. Not surprisingly, the team has lost 12 of its last 13 games.
The Suns were also big movers on the deadline, but really did nothing to improve their roster. Overall, Phoenix has lost six of its last eight contests.
The Hawks' superior talent, coaching and stability over both teams will be enough to complete an undefeated week.
Record: 3-0
March 15 Through March 21
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Key Matchup: March 18 at Golden State (L)
What an epic game the last matchup between the Hawks and the 46-11 Golden State Warriors was. According to SportSouth television network, via Vivlamore, the Feb. 6 contest was the highest-rated Hawks game ever, including the postseason.
Atlanta and Golden State will do battle again on March 18, this time at the Oracle Arena. It's a place where the Warriors are 24-2, and the Hawks will have to bring their A-game to have any chance of winning.
Splash Brothers Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson will be tough to guard, as always, and the Warriors' overall depth is always difficult to overcome.
Unless the Hawks get another monster showing from their bench (7-of-8 from three last month against Golden State), the Warriors will win in front of their home crowd.
Other Games: March 15 at Los Angeles Lakers (W), March 16 at Sacramento (W), March 20 at Oklahoma City (W)
Sandwiching the Warriors game is three other road tilts against Western Conference teams.
Against the 16-42 Los Angeles Lakers, the Hawks will have to play terribly to lose. Los Angeles did beat Atlanta at Philips Arena on Nov. 18, but both teams are different now—the Lakers are more motivated to lose and keep their first-round pick, while the Hawks are 42-7 since their embarrassing loss.
Beating the 20-37 Kings will be a slightly more daunting task, with Sacramento's previously outlined rebounding abilities and Atlanta being on the second night of a back-to-back, but the Hawks have enough depth to survive.
To end their six-game road trip, Atlanta will face the 33-27 Oklahoma City Thunder, who are clinging to a one-game lead for the West's No. 8 seed. This game could go either way, but with star Kevin Durant still struggling with an injured foot, the Hawks may not have to face him at 100 percent.
To me, that's enough to roll with Atlanta here.
Record: 3-1
March 22 Through March 28
4 of 8
Key Matchup: March 22 vs. San Antonio (L)
Although the Hawks and the 36-23 San Antonio Spurs are in different conferences, this game offers great intrigue. We saw them match up once before on Nov. 5, when Pero Antic's deep heave was blocked at the buzzer to give San Antonio a 94-92 win.
But the Hawks have come into their own since then, often drawing comparisons to the Spurs. Both teams play an unselfish brand of basketball and use similar offensive sets, and Atlanta coach Mike Budenholzer was an assistant to San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich for 17 years.
On March 22, the two teams will play an extremely close game, trading blows with methodical offensive play and smart defensive rotations.
In the end, the Spurs need the win more to stay in playoff position, and they will get it.
Other Games: March 25 at Orlando (W), March 27 vs. Miami (W), March 28 at Charlotte (W)
The 19-42 Orlando Magic aren't a good team, but they always seem to cause the Hawks trouble. Atlanta leads the season series 2-1, but the wins were by just six and seven points, respectively. Looking to rebound from a loss to the Spurs three days earlier, the Hawks will find a way to win.
Playoff implications are a point of interest for Atlanta's March 27 contest against the 25-33 Miami Heat. The Heat are the East's No. 7 seed at the moment but could fall down a spot, leading to a No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchup with the Hawks in the first round of the playoffs. But considering Chris Bosh's season-ending lung injury, Atlanta has too much depth to lose at home against Miami.
One night after defeating the Heat, the Hawks will go on the road and take down the slumping, 24-33 Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets are 2-6 in their last eight games.
Record: 3-1
March 29 Through April 4
5 of 8
Key Matchup: March 30 vs. Milwaukee (L)
Like the Magic, the 32-27 Milwaukee Bucks have given the Hawks fits in 2014-15. Atlanta leads the season series 2-1, but the wins haven't been easy, and the loss was by 30 points.
The Bucks are currently sixth in the East, just 1.5 games behind the fifth-place Washington Wizards. Should Milwaukee climb into the fifth (or even fourth) spot and defeat its first-round opponent, Hawks vs. Bucks would be the likely Eastern Conference Semifinal matchup.
Atlanta is a better team on paper than Milwaukee, but giving the Bucks no shot in both this contest and a playoff series between the teams is foolish.
I predict a down game from the Hawks here following a three-game winning streak, with the Bucks typically rising to the occasion against the East's top team.
Other Games: March 31 at Detroit (W), April 4 vs. Brooklyn (W)
The Hawks finish March on the road at The Palace of Auburn Hills to face the 23-36 Detroit Pistons. Detroit occupies the No. 12 seed in the East but is just two games out of the No. 8 slot.
The team's trade for point guard Reggie Jackson was a nice move for its playoff run, but the Hawks are too deep and talented to lose to a motivated Pistons squad here.
Every contest against the 24-33 Brooklyn Nets has an extra piece of motivation for the Hawks. Not only does Atlanta want to win, but it will get to swap its first-round draft pick for Brooklyn's in June.
The Nets are stuck in mediocrity right now, and the Hawks will do their best to ensure they stay there.
Record: 2-1
April 5 Through April 11
6 of 8
Key Matchup: April 8 at Brooklyn (L)
Just four days after playing the 24-33 Nets at home, the Hawks will travel to Brooklyn to play the Nets at Barclays Center.
This time around, Atlanta will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
Don't be surprised if the Hawks rest some of their players, even if the Nets' pick does matter to them. Brooklyn's veteran players, such as Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez and Deron Williams, should take advantage of the Hawks being short-handed by coming out victorious.
Other Games: April 7 vs. Phoenix (W), April 10 vs. Charlotte (W)
Although they aren't out of the hunt yet, the 31-29 Suns will almost assuredly be out of the playoff hunt by April 7. The Thunder are making a move right now that Phoenix just won't be able to match, and the Hawks will defeat a disheartened Phoenix squad.
Atlanta will get back on the winning track against the 24-33 Hornets after a loss to the Nets. Like the Suns, Charlotte will be nearly eliminated from playoff contention when it faces the Hawks on the road. The Hornets won't have enough resolve to knock off Atlanta.
Record: 2-1
April 12 Through April 15
7 of 8
Key Matchup: April 15 at Chicago (L)
The Hawks will end their storybook regular season against the 37-23 Chicago Bulls.
The Bulls' title hopes looked all but dead when their star point guard, Derrick Rose, went down on Feb. 24 with a torn meniscus. Fortunately for Chicago, Rose is only out four to six weeks, ESPNChicago's Nick Friedell reported.
According to that timetable, Rose should be available both for the season finale and the postseason.
With the Bulls merely staying afloat in the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff bracket without Rose, they should play hard to win for playoff positioning as well as momentum.
Other Games: April 12 at Washington (L), April 13 vs. New York (W)
The 34-26 Washington Wizards are admittedly ice-cold right now. They've lost 11 of their last 14 and don't look at all like the team that started the season 22-8.
But they have far too much talent to keep playing like they are. With the Wizards at home (where they are 21-10), they should be able to knock off a less-motivated Hawks squad and possibly improve their playoff seeding.
There aren't many NBA teams in history as bad as the Carmelo Anthony-less, 12-46 New York Knicks. The Knicks don't have a single player on their roster who should be starting on even an average team. Atlanta won't have much problem disposing of New York, even if it rests some of its starters on the second night of a back-to-back.
Record: 1-2
Recap of the Final Six Weeks
8 of 8
The No. 1 seed isn't really in jeopardy for the Hawks.
They have a 10-game lead over the rest of the East, with 23 contests to play. If the second-seeded Toronto Raptors continue their winning pace and finish 51-31, Atlanta would have to go 4-19 in the next six weeks to lose its position. Naturally, the third-seeded Cavaliers and fourth-seeded Bulls would need even more luck to supplant the Hawks.
Since Atlanta has home-court advantage on its side of the playoff bracket all but locked up, there's no need for the team to make a torrid season-ending run. That's not to say the Hawks shouldn't try at all—some rhythm and momentum heading into the postseason is necessary.
But if there is a point in March or early April when one or more of his players aren't feeling fresh, Budenholzer shouldn't hesitate to pull them from the lineup like he did against the Heat on Saturday.
After that game, Coach Bud said the following, per Vivlamore: "I think there is a lot of belief and faith in our entire roster. We’ve got a lot of players who feel like they can step up and contribute. Sometimes you may get more from those guys. It’s a long season and we are working our way through it. It’s a credit to those guys to be ready."
And it's the Hawks' depth that will help get them through the remainder of the season with an excellent record.
Overall Record During Final Six Weeks: 16-7
Final 2014-15 Record: 63-19
Note: All statistics are from Basketball-Reference.com and updated through March 1 unless otherwise indicated.
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