Houston Rockets' Schedule Breakdown and Predictions for Season's Final 6 Weeks
These last few weeks will look different than the beginning of the season for the Houston Rockets but hopefully with a similar result. The roster has some new faces, but Houston is hoping to recapture the magic that led to a 6-0 start.
While Dwight Howard has been sidelined for a few weeks with an edema in his knee, James Harden continues to lead the charge for the Rockets. The league's leading scorer is at least a top-two MVP candidate, and his facial hair isn't too shabby either. But as well as he has played, Harden is going to need some help soon.
The bench brigade has been doing its part lately. Josh Smith and Corey Brewer provide a huge spark off the bench with limitless energy on both ends of the court. Once the team's biggest weakness, the second unit is now a vital asset with its dominant rim protection and fast transition game.
How long can Houston survive without Howard manning the middle? The return of Terrence Jones, and his steady improvement per game, has been a major help, but the defense is on a whole other level with Howard's paint supremacy.
Houston fans anxiously await his return; meanwhile, the Rockets schedule rolls on.
There are a little over six weeks left, and Howard is out for at least a couple more of them. It's a tough road ahead with the fifth-hardest remaining schedule in the NBA. Here's the full breakdown of the final weeks for the Rockets.
Week 1: March 1-7
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The Rockets have no time to mess around, so neither should we. Let's get right into it.
March starts off with a big-time matchup against the streaking Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs' trip to Houston on March 1 will be the second game of ABC's Sunday Showcase.
LeBron James and crew have found their groove, winning 18 of their last 21. All of the doubts and concerns from early on in the season are a thing of the past as Cleveland looks more and more like the favorite in the East each day. Even scarier, LeBron and Kyrie Irving got the night off last game, which means they will be well-rested.
Both of these teams are fighting for home-court advantage in their respective conferences. Houston is currently the three seed, while Cleveland sits at fourth in the East. Yet both of these teams are closing in on the clubs ahead of them, while the squads below them are not far behind.
These two clubs will want to pick up a big win on national TV and try to bolster their positioning in the standings. As hot as Cleveland is, the Rockets should be able to win on their own floor, even without Howard. They've won the first four games of the homestand and want to finish it off with the fifth.
The week doesn't get any easier after that. The Rockets follow up their lengthy homestand with a quick trip to Atlanta, where the Hawks are sporting the best record in the East. The Hawks took down the Rockets in Toyota Center back in December, and Houston will want to return the favor in Atlanta.
As good as they've been, the Hawks are struggling a bit as of late. They're 4-3 in their last seven after winning 19 games in a row. However, they are 29-4 at home this year, so I don't particularly like the Rockets' chances.
After one game away, the Rockets return home for a couple of games. They play the Memphis Grizzlies on March 4 and then the Detroit Pistons on March 6.
The game against the Grizzlies will be to clinch the tiebreaker against their division rival. Houston is right on their tail and can possibly pass them up for the two seed that night. The Rockets have been pretty good on the second night of back-to-backs and can pick up this win at home.
The Pistons got the better of the Rockets late in January, but Houston should turn the tables in its own building.
And finally, Houston heads to Denver to take on the Nuggets on March 7. Brian Shaw's team has been spiraling out of control, and the Rockets would love to take advantage.
Week 1 Prediction: 4-1
Week 2: March 8-14
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For the first time since the disaster, the Rockets return to the Moda Center to take on the Portland Trail Blazers on March 11 on ESPN.
It's a short week for Houston, with just two games on the docket in the midst of a four-game West Coast road trip. The Rockets get a nice three days off before heading to the forbidden city in Oregon for a significant matchup.
Similar to the Rockets, the Blazers have kept up the pace in the West despite injury troubles. LaMarcus Aldridge was supposed to be out for extended time with a torn ligament in his thumb, but he has postponed surgery and has not skipped a beat.
So far this year, the Rockets and Blazers have split the two games they've played. However, both of those games were in Houston, and now the third and final game is on the Blazers' home court. This one is for the tiebreaker, which could be huge down the stretch.
Houston destroyed Portland in the first matchup, but Aldridge didn't play. The second time around, the Blazers withstood 45 points from Harden for a huge road win.
Other than the Golden State Warriors, the Blazers have the best home record in the West. I don't see the Rockets getting revenge on Portland this time without Howard (or Troy Daniels). It should be a good game, but Houston may fall short.
Fortunately, the next game is not nearly as difficult. The Rockets play the very next night in Utah against the Jazz. Utah has been playing better as of late, but it shouldn't be able to beat the Rockets unless they really have an off-night. Houston should win this one.
Week 2 Prediction: 1-1
Week 3: March 15-21
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The Rockets finally beat the Los Angeles Clippers near the end of February. It was their first win in seven tries and the first win with Harden in a Rockets uniform.
Even though Harden struggled to score, the bench unit dominated the start of the fourth quarter and carried the Rockets to a win. Corey Brewer and Josh Smith played like men on a mission, and Houston finally got over the hump against the Clippers.
For some reason, Harden just cannot get anything going against the Clips. They put J.J. Reddick or Matt Barnes on him on the perimeter, but anytime he drives, DeAndre Jordan is right there waiting for him in the paint. In the last game, Harden did a good job of involving his teammates, even if he couldn't score well himself.
There was no Blake Griffin or Dwight Howard in that game. Their status for this next game is uncertain, but if either or both of them play, things will be much different.
Despite their last win, the Rockets do not match up well with L.A. Jordan has had a field day in every contest, averaging 17.7 points and 19.7 rebounds in the first three games. This game has tie-breaking implications, but Houston does not bode well in the Staples Center versus the Clips in their second Sunday Showcase of the season.
After the four games away from home, the Rockets come back to finish the week in Toyota Center. Thankfully, it's an easy stretch at home.
Houston takes on the Orlando Magic, Denver Nuggets and then the Phoenix Suns. None of these teams are in the playoffs, and the Rockets should sweep the homestand with relative ease.
Week 3 Prediction: 3-1
Week 4: March 22-28
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This fourth week will be somewhat interesting.
It starts with a mini-road trip to Indianapolis and then to New Orleans, followed up by the Minnesota Timberwolves at home.
The Indiana Pacers are a decent team. They have played without a lot of their starters for the majority of the season, but now everyone is coming back. Paul George may even be available for this one, but it's doubtful. Under coach Frank Vogel, the Pacers play sound defense and could maybe make a late playoff push in the East, but this is still a team that the Rockets should beat.
The same logic applies to the New Orleans Pelicans, although that hasn't been the case this year. The Pels are 2-0 against Houston already, including a 28-point blowout last time they played.
That blowout loss was the Rockets' low point of the season. They are a much different team nowadays, but New Orleans does provide a difficult match up strategically.
Even when Howard plays, which he might by this time of the season, Anthony Davis wreaks havoc against Houston. Well, he does against everybody, but the Rockets in particular struggle to contain his versatility.
With his new mid-range jumper, Davis is a tough cover for Howard, who is more of a pure rim protector. But Davis can still guard Hoard on the other end, which is frustrating for the Rockets coaching staff to scheme for.
Still, with Harden on the team, the Rockets should be able to beat the Pelicans at last. These teams haven't played yet with Smith and Brewer fully acclimated on the team, so it should be winnable.
The Rockets have already beaten the T-Wolves three times, and even with Kevin Garnett back, this fourth one shouldn't be an issue.
Week 4 Prediction: 3-0
Week 5: March 29-April 4
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After a nice, quick breather, the schedule toughens up again. The Rockets end March with a short East coast road trip against two contenders.
First, Houston travels to the nation's capital to take on the Washington Wizards. The Wiz are one of the top five teams in the East, but since the All-Star break, they have been abysmal. They have yet to win a game, and their losses have either been blowouts or to the miserable Philadelphia 76ers.
Washington has a lot of time to fix its mistakes before hosting the Rockets, but Houston can still pull off the road win. This game will be the Rockets' third Sunday Showcase of the month on ABC.
The next day, Houston travels across the border to square off against the Toronto Raptors. The Rockets beat the Raps in a recent matchup in Houston, but Toronto is a better team at home. Because it's the second night of a back-to-back, I'd give the Raptors a slight edge.
The Rockets come home for one game to play the Sacramento Kings, whom they should beat. After that, it's back on the road for one of the tougher road trips of the season against Western contenders.
The first matchup is a big one in Dallas. Houston takes on its biggest rival up I-45 in a game for serious bragging rights. The Rockets won the first two games of the season series at home before dropping the last one in the American Airlines Center.
Houston has yet to have Howard against the Mavs this season, but hopefully he can finally play in this last one to secure the tiebreaker. One of his best games as a Rocket was in Dallas versus the Mavericks, and hopefully he can repeat that performance for what would be a huge win. However, I see the Mavericks protecting their home floor in this one.
The Mavs are right behind the Rockets in the standings, and who knows what the standings will look like by then? This game could be crucial.
Week 5 Prediction: 2-2
Weeks 6-7: April 5-15
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It's tough to predict things this far into the future, but I'll give it a shot.
The Rockets have a difficult stretch of games before a couple of gimmes to end the season. It's impossible to know what seeds and tiebreakers will be on the line, but in the West, chances are these games will be somewhat important.
The difficult road trip continues as Harden returns to OKC to play his former squad. The Thunder could be playing for their playoff lives, or they may have the sixth seed locked up by then. The Rockets already clinched the tiebreaker by winning the first two games, but that probably will be irrelevant at this point.
It's more likely that OKC will need a win more than the Rockets do, and the Thunder will probably play like it. OKC is a tough place to play, and the Rockets will ultimately fall short.
Houston gets a couple of days off before a home-and-home with the San Antonio Spurs. The Rockets and Spurs split the first two games, with the home team winning each time. That trend will continue, with the Spurs winning the first game on their court and then vice versa a couple of days later.
Like the Thunder, the Spurs are close enough to the bottom of the standings to be sweating out a playoff spot. The last two weeks for them could be pivotal, but I don't expect to ever see the day when Gregg Popovich misses the playoffs. He will get his team in shape by the time the postseason rolls around.
Even though the Rockets match up well against the Spurs, the defending champs will still win one of these two contests.
After the home-and-home, the quality of competition takes a sharp decline. The Rockets host the Pelicans, travel to Charlotte to play the Hornets and then finally host the Jazz.
We may see some players get rest in these games, depending on the Rockets' standing in the West. Assuming these games are important, they should win all three and finish off the season strong but could stumble once along the way.
Weeks 6-7 Prediction: 3-3
Conclusion
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It's a bad time to be a contender in the West. The competition is fierce, and every game is important to avoid dropping in the standings.
The Rockets are one of those teams. They have held onto that third seed without Howard for so long, and now they just need to finish the job. If Harden can keep up his MVP pace and Howard can come back healthy, then Houston should be in good shape.
The important thing down the stretch will be to try to win those games with tie-breaking implications. Wins against other Western contenders will be good for both the standings and for confidence going into the playoffs.
It should be an exciting finish to the season, and you won't want to miss even a second of it.
March/April Prediction: 16-8
Final Prediction: 56-26, Third in West
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