New Orleans Pelicans' Schedule Breakdown and Record Predictions for January
Led by 21-year-old superstar Anthony Davis, the New Orleans Pelicans weathered a tough December and walked the .500 tightrope, closing the month at 9-8.
New Orleans, now 16-16, will play 15 games in January, including seven on the road. Nine of those contests are against teams that will enter the month below .500, though the Pels are also going to see five of the top seven seeds in the West and two of the East’s best three.
January’s games won’t be as difficult as December’s, but the fact that the team will hit the hardwood on an average of once every two nights could wear down the ‘Cans, who are fresh off of a 17-game month.
“Right now it's all about maturity and growing up as a team and realizing this is a moment, this is where we have to start growing up and learning how to win games,” Davis said, per The Associated Press (via ESPN), after racking up 30 points, 14 boards and five swats in a 99-90 victory over the 21-8 Houston Rockets on Dec. 18.
Davis is right on—the time is now. Earning a playoff berth won’t be smooth sailing, but it’s definitely an attainable goal for the Pelicans.
Here’s a relevant excerpt from my December preview on what lies ahead in the New Year:
"New Orleans will get the Charlotte Hornets, Philadelphia 76ers (twice), Boston Celtics, Detroit Pistons, Knicks and Lakers—which, barring a meltdown, should result in seven easy wins.
New Orleans doesn’t see the Spurs in January, but the team will get the Rockets, Wizards, Toronto Raptors, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, Mavericks, Nuggets and Clippers. If the ‘Cans can win half of those contests, they will be at 11-4 on the month.
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New Orleans managed to keep its footing in December, which was admirable. In January, though, it’s time to go from a walk to a sprint and really string some wins together.
Week 1: December 28 to January 3
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Key Game: Friday, Jan. 2 vs. Houston Rockets (8 p.m. ET)
Other opponents: Phoenix Suns (12/30), San Antonio Spurs (12/31)*
With an MVP candidate in James Harden and one the league’s best bigs in Dwight Howard, the Rockets are the real deal.
But the Pelicans aren’t to be taken lightly.
Houston fell to the ‘Cans in mid-December, largely due to the fact that Harden, who has been lethally efficient (scoring a league-high 27.2 points per game on 42.6 percent shooting), was contained.
"We've got to realize that we're a defensive team and when we defend, we're a tough team to beat," AD said afterwards, according to AP, via ESPN.
Jrue Holiday, one of the league’s premier defensive guards, called the win “a big one,” per NBA.com’s Jim Eichenhofer, while coach Monty Williams singled out New Orleans’ fourth-quarter defense against the third-best team in the West.
On Jan. 2, the Pelicans can’t get complacent. They managed to upend the Rockets on the road and will now have to defend their home court. A victory here against an elite divisional opponent would put even more wind at their backs.
Harden will likely score more than 23 points this time around, but if AD and Holiday can get going, New Orleans has a solid shot of pulling off another upset.
Record Prediction: 1-0
*December games were covered in last month's preview.
Week 2: January 4-10
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Key Game: Friday, Jan. 9 vs. Memphis Grizzlies (8 p.m. ET)
Other opponents: Washington Wizards (1/5), Charlotte Hornets (1/7)
It’s no secret that the Southwest Division is the toughest in basketball.
All of the Southwest teams—Rockets (21-8), Memphis Grizzlies (22-8), Dallas Mavericks (22-10), San Antonio Spurs (19-13) and Pelicans (15-15)—are playoff contenders, and no other division has more than three teams with 15-plus wins.
For that reason, any time the Pels square off against one of their closest foes, it’s a big deal.
New Orleans dropped its first game against Memphis back on Nov. 3 by a score of 93-81, but Davis (14) and Holiday (10) only combined for 24 points.
It was the fourth game of the year for the Pelicans, who began this season at a pace similar to how most wimpy people enter a freezing pool—slowly but gradually. Meanwhile, Memphis came out red-hot and won 10 of its first 11 contests.
The Grizzlies will be favored here, but expect Davis and superstar center Marc Gasol’s clash to be more of an explosive battle than the first time around when they combined for just 30 points and 19 rebounds.
Washington and Charlotte are also on the slate this week, and while those teams are very different—basically, one of them is really good, and the other is the Hornets—the key to beating them is the same: Holiday’s defense.
John Wall is on the cusp of being a top-three point guard, while Kemba Walker is quickly establishing himself as a backcourt force. They’re two lightning-quick guards who will annihilate opponents if they aren’t put in check.
Here’s Nick Lewellen from Bourbon Street Shots (ESPN True Hoop) with more on Holiday’s defensive ability:
"He has great footwork, and his length makes it difficult for even the most explosive point guards to get around him. He also plays with a ton of heart. Holiday is not afraid of stepping in front of the biggest guys in the league. You don’t have to like his game, but you have to respect his passion.
Measuring defense may be hard, but the NBA is trying to change that with their new tracking data. I’m not totally sure how helpful the new data is, but here is what it says about Jrue. A shooter going against Jrue will shoot 1.2% worse than his typical field goal percentage.
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If Holiday can play Wall and Walker as well as he’s defended other guards this year, the Pels should snag at least two wins this week.
Record Prediction: 2-1
Week 3: January 11-17
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Key Game: Friday, Jan. 16 @ Philadelphia 76ers (7 p.m. ET)
Other opponents: Boston Celtics (1/12), Detroit Pistons (1/14)
Shaq and Kobe. Jordan and Pippen. LeBron and Wade. Michael Carter-Williams and Nerlens Noel.
Just kidding about that last pair, folks. But in all seriousness, the Pelicans need to be careful when they travel to Philadelphia.
It’s likely the Pels will knock both Boston and Detroit off before traveling to Philly for the third consecutive road contest in five nights.
Overlooking the 76ers wouldn't be difficult, especially being that the showdown with Boston kicks off a five-game road trip.
"Psh, Philly? We don't need to bring it tonight, fellas."
Hashtag trap game.
The Sixers aren’t respectable by any means, but they do have some players, namely MCW, Noel and Tony Wroten. If those three get going, or an excitement-guy like K.J. McDaniels catches fire, the tankers could steal one from the fatigued ‘Cans.
This would be a terrible loss for the Pelicans. But if they play their A-game, it’ll be a blowout win. It’s imperative New Orleans doesn't fall into the trap.
Record Prediction: 3-0
Week 4: January 18-24
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Key Game: Sunday, Jan. 18 @ Toronto Raptors (3:30 p.m. ET)
Other opponents: New York Knicks (1/19), Los Angeles Lakers (1/21), Minnesota Timberwolves (1/23)
Beating the Raps in Toronto would get the ball rolling in Week 4, as the ‘Cans will hit the road to take on the Knicks and Lakers before hosting the T’Wolves two days later—all in a span of six days.
Even with Drake in the building, New Orleans will have a shot at knocking off one of the league’s most well-rounded teams.
Holiday should slow down star point guard Kyle Lowry (at least somewhat), and Davis will feast on a defense that’s allowing more than 20 points and nine rebounds to opposing forwards, per RotoWire.
Eric Gordon, who has been sidelined with a shoulder injury (torn labrum), is reportedly due back in roughly two weeks, according to Jennifer Hale of Fox Sports Southwest. Gordon's return will deepen the rotation and help the Pelicans against guard-heavy teams like Toronto.
This will be the first of two meetings between the Pelicans and Raptors. Both are young, up-and-coming teams, but New Orleans has yet to take that next step that’s allowed Toronto to dominate the East.
In a vacuum, defeating the Knicks, Lakers and Timberwolves will be about as hard as a bed of flowers. But if the Pels don't show up and get blown out by the Raptors, they could stumble a bit without momentum.
New York leads the league in losses, so that game is one that the Pelicans must take, just as they did earlier in December.
“We just know we wanted to get this win and get back to .500," Davis said, per AP via ESPN, after beating the Knicks 104-83 on Dec. 9. “It kind of was a must-win for us, but at the same time, we just stuck with our principles and tried to play hard.”
The Pels have yet to string together three consecutive wins, and they’ve managed to muster back-to-back W's just four times. If they don't do it in the week prior, it’s hard to imagine them not breaking that streak here.
Record Prediction: 3-1
Week 5: January 25-31
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Key Game: Sunday, Jan. 25 @ Dallas Mavericks (6 p.m. ET)
Other opponents: Sixers (1/26), Denver Nuggets (1/28), Los Angeles Clippers (1/30)
If all goes according to plan, the Pelicans will be 9-2 at this point as they head into a four-game homestand to close the month.
January’s final week holds some of the month’s strongest competition. New Orleans will open on the road against the Mavs, who didn’t even have Rajon Rondo when they beat AD and Co. back on Dec. 10.
Philly is Philly—barring a disaster, this should be a relatively smooth win. But Los Angeles won’t be nearly as easy.
Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are as good of a one-two punch as there is in the NBA, and Jamal Crawford is likely to go to town against New Orleans’ cotton-soft bench.
The Nuggets are better than their 13-17 record would indicate, with Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried leading the way.
Davis and Faried thrived with Team USA over the summer and will do battle with New Orleans for the second time this season on Jan. 28. Denver came away victorious in Round 1, 117-97, as the Manimal (19 points) helped contain Davis to 18 points and nine rebounds.
Going an even .500 would be a win this week. That would put New Orleans at an impressive 11-4 in January.
Record Prediction: 2-2
Overview of January
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Record Prediction: 11-4
The Pelicans withstood a harsh schedule in December and put together a solid month.
January needs to be bigger and better, with a more consistent level of winning. Going 11-4 would put the team at 27-20 (.675 winning percentage), which would currently be good for sixth place in the conference.
All-Star weekend is coming up in February, so for everyone other than Davis—the leading vote-getter among Western Conference forwards—that means a break is on the horizon.
New Orleans will play just 11 games in February, but seven are against teams currently over .500. There will be less travel and more practice/rest time, but the level of competition will be a bit tougher.
That’s a few paces down the path, though. For now, the ‘Cans need to get a head of steam and come away with 10-plus wins in January.
The New Year doesn’t mean that New Orleans must change its game. As long as Davis continues to dominate and the team commits to the defensive end, the Pelicans should be just fine.
If this is a playoff team, now is the time to start showing it.
All stats and standings are accurate as of Dec. 28 courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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