What Is Rajon Rondo's Real Trade Value?
There are a host of reasons that, despite being consistently involved in NBA trade rumors, Rajon Rondo has remained a member of the Boston Celtics throughout his entire career.
The one underlying reason that hasn't changed, however, is that it is incredibly difficult to determine his true trade value.
The team around him has changed over the years, and that has certainly created wrinkles in his value, but he remains in Boston because no one, Celtics GM Danny Ainge included, can seem to put a finger on just what he might be worth in a potential deal.
The 2014 offseason has been one of the more pressured for Rondo trade talks. Due mostly to his contract timeline, which will expire next summer with a lucrative next deal on deck, Boston feels extra pressure to trade him before potentially losing him in free agency.
Some other factors weighing in on the Rondo trade situation are his health and feelings on wanting to win. Rondo played only 30 games last season, working his way back to full strength after missing significant time with an ACL tear. While he should be fully mended by the start of this 2014-15 season, teams will still be assuming that risk with a preseason trade.
Recently, a report surfaced that Rondo was asking out of Boston, but his camp quickly denied the claim, according to Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald. The original claim was made by Jackie MacMullan while she thought she was off-air during the filming of an episode of ESPN's Around the Horn. The video, which has since been deleted, was found by MassLive.com's Jay King.
A couple days ago, Celtics President Rich Gotham told The Boston Globe's Gary Washburn that he had no knowledge of Rondo demanding a trade.
Rondo's money
There is also the matter of where Rondo would re-sign. Bringing him in at this point of his contract is a massive risk to any team. They are potentially trading away an attractive package of players and picks for one year of Rondo. He has been looking forward to the opportunity of experiencing free agency, and a team would really have to appeal to him to forgo that chance.
As he told The Boston Globe's Baxter Holmes near last season's trade deadline, it is something that definitely appeals to him.
"It's kind of like college recruiting. I'm pretty sure a lot more goes into it in the NBA. A lot more money is spent. I've heard stories, guys getting called right at midnight. It's something that I haven't experienced. I may want to go through it. I haven't thought about it at all.
"
Rondo will be looking for a maximum contract next summer, which with nine years of NBA service would be 30 percent of the salary cap. This coming season's cap is set at $63.065 million, meaning Rondo's pay could be as much as $18.92 million.
Were Rondo to pull in that contract this coming season, he would be the 12th highest-paid player in the league and the third highest-paid point guard, behind Chris Paul and Deron Williams and just ahead of Derrick Rose.
After missing about half of each of the last two seasons, it is impossible to say honestly that Rondo is a top-12 NBA player or a top-three point guard. He may very well be but will have to prove that in 2014-15.
That is what a team that trades for Rondo is looking at right now and on through the trade deadline.
Point guard precedents
Point guards aren't being traded with a ton of frequency these days, especially the higher-end ones. This is another factor that makes it difficult to judge Rondo's return package.
Back in 2011, Paul and two second-round picks were sent from New Orleans to Los Angeles for Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Al-Farouq Aminu and an unprotected first-rounder (which became Austin Rivers).
While the deal certainly didn't work out for the Hornets/Pelicans, that was quite a package at the time. Gordon was in his early 20s and coming off a season that saw him average an efficient 22.3 points per game. Kaman and Aminu were quality NBA role players, and that pick became No. 10 overall in 2012.
Paul was 26 at the time, however. Rondo will turn 29 during the 2014-15 season. He also isn't nearly the shooter or complete player that Paul is.
One could also look at the more recent Jrue Holiday trade. Coming off an All-Star season, the Philadelphia 76ers dealt him to New Orleans for two first-round picks. One of those was Nerlens Noel on draft night. The other became Elfrid Payton, who the 76ers flipped to Orlando for Dario Saric and more assets, including a future first-round pick.
Kyle Lowry was also recently traded to the Toronto Raptors from the Houston Rockets. That deal netted the Houston Rockets a first-round pick in 2013 that became part of the James Harden trade. The pick eventually belonged to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who nabbed Steven Adams at No. 12 overall.
From these three trades we can definitely glean that Rondo is worth at least one high-end first-round pick. He could possibly be worth two depending on the suitor and what else is involved in the package in terms of actual NBA players.
Who is out there?
When judging a player's value on the trade market, one must first analyze the market and find potential suitors. For a point guard, that is tough because there appear to be so many quality ones in the game today.
Of the 30 NBA teams, roughly half have a point guard that could be favored over Rondo. Whether it is the Los Angeles Clippers with Paul, San Antonio Spurs with Tony Parker or even guys like Jeff Teague, Ty Lawson and Mike Conley, those teams have players they like at the position and could make an argument that Rondo wouldn't be a huge upgrade.
A 16th team is obviously the Celtics themselves, so that leaves 14 teams who could definitely use Rondo at point guard to upgrade their roster.
The next step would be to consider Rondo's feelings on free agency and the chances he would be willing to re-sign with that particular team or sign an extension right off the bat. For that to be the case, a team would have to either have a winning tradition or the ability to compete right away. An ultra-competitive player, Rondo wants to win now and wouldn't like to leave the Celtics just to be a part of a different rebuilding project.
With this caveat, it is possible to eliminate the Sacramento Kings, Utah Jazz, Orlando Magic, Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves.
We're now down to nine teams but not finished trimming just yet. There is also the wonky history between Rondo and the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers to consider. Would he be willing to re-sign in either of those places for big money? Possibly, but Rondo is an interesting cat as is Ainge, who wouldn't be psyched by the idea of giving his best player to the Lakers or Heat.
Down to seven teams, we can start going into depth with them a little bit. On the surface, the Brooklyn Nets seem a tad far-fetched. On top of already owing the Celtics a pair of first-round picks and the right to swap another, Brooklyn will be paying Williams and Joe Johnson nearly $46 million combined in 2015-16, which would be the first year of Rondo's max extension.
The Rockets are another team who could certainly upgrade their roster with Rondo but have questionable assets to offer in return. They hold their own first-rounders in 2016 and beyond but don't have much promising young talent to package. Rookies Clint Capela and Nick Johnson aren't getting Ainge's attention, which could mean having to sacrifice two top picks.
The New York Knicks similarly don't have a ton of appealing items to barter. They are a step ahead of Brooklyn and Houston, though. They hold their 2015 and 2017 first-round picks, have big expiring contracts in Amar'e Stoudemire and Andrea Bargnani and some minor young talent like Iman Shumpert, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Shane Larkin.
The Indiana Pacers are another fringe option. It is unclear exactly what their plan is, staring at a season without the injured Paul George. The Pacers hold all their first-round picks and could definitely stand to upgrade from George Hill, especially after losing Lance Stephenson to free agency. However, there isn't a ton of young talent that Boston would be looking for. There is salary filler to look at with the picks, and Roy Hibbert could be another option, but the potential here isn't great.
The Charlotte Hornets, Dallas Mavericks and Detroit Pistons make the most sense right now.
All three franchises hold all their first-round picks. The Hornets have the most to offer in terms of young talent in a package. Boston could be swayed by Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Noah Vonleh. Charlotte was a playoff team last season with Al Jefferson and just added Stephenson to the fold this summer. They are a team that Rondo could help push over the edge into real contention in the Eastern Conference.
Dallas has plenty of space to re-sign Rondo, with Tyson Chandler and Brandan Wright coming off the books next summer. They also have the desire to win right now, with Dirk Nowitzki getting up there in years. There isn't a lot of young talent on the team to draw attention, but Chandler is a big expiring contract, too. Whether Rondo would want to re-sign with a team that might lose Nowitzki to retirement soon is unknown, but the Mavericks have a good owner, GM and head coach and should remain competitive.
Finally, we have the Pistons, who have had an interesting offseason and still may not be finished given the Greg Monroe situation. According to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, Monroe finally signed his $5.5 million qualifying offer and will be an unrestricted free agent next season. That puts him in an interesting position as far as a Rondo trade is concerned.
The Pistons also hold something in terms of young value. Spencer Dinwiddie, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Singler are all young, inexpensive players with the chance to develop more. There is also the friendship between Josh Smith and Rondo to consider, for whatever something like that is worth when you are talking $18 million contracts.
Conclusions
All of this gives us a better idea on a range to zero in on. Until Rondo plays a month or two of healthy, quality basketball, we won't know for sure his real value. However, with this information, we can certainly predict packages from specific teams and from there judge whether Ainge would be forced to pull the trigger or not.
In the end, Rondo's trade value probably resembles his game. He is a stat sheet stuffer and probably the league's biggest triple-double threat. Therefore, a package for him would look a lot like a triple-double, with a little bit of everything: a first-round pick, at least one young talent, an expiring contract and maybe also a team willing to take on one of Boston's iffy contracts as well.
Ainge isn't one to put all his eggs in one basket. By getting the buffet line of returns, he has numerous shots to hit it big and a safety net of cap space to catch him if he swings and misses.
All salary and pick swap information courtesy of BasketballInsiders.com unless otherwise noted.
We should, you know, hang out some time...
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