Big-Market Team NBA Power Rankings

Brett BallantiniJun 7, 2018

Hey, tracing the best of the best small-market NBA teams is cute and all. But when you’re talking NBA power, you jump past the small potatoes and get into the biggest markets, right?

The prior small-market survey broke the bigs from the littles between the Warriors (as the No. 15 population/TV market in the league) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (No. 16), so Golden State marks the smallest of the big markets, and where this survey ends.

Categories considered in the rankings (lower scores, meaning a higher ranking, are better):

Market Size
Fan Support (percentage of arena filled per game)
Future Market Growth
Team Heritage (franchise history, including years spent in market and playoffs/titles)
All-Time Winning Percentage
Fan Cost Index (price of four average-priced tickets, two small draft beers, four small sodas, four regular hot dogs, one car parking, two game programs and two caps)
Market Competition (considering other attractions and pro teams competing for dollars)

These rankings don’t claim to be eminently scientific and each category was weighed equally. In case of a tie, advantages on the court won out.

But in terms of sheer winning, let me straighten out the pro-big bias some may have: Just two of the top five winningest pro teams all-time come from the big markets, and four of the top 10. In total, just seven of the 15 big-market teams have records of .500 or better.

In basketball, the battle has always been between the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics. Well, ditch that notion for this survey, because neither team tops this ranking of big-market teams.

Shocked? Well, the bottom end of things is a little more predictable. So let’s get to it.

15. Los Angeles Clippers (10.6 Power Ranking)

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Ranking Breakdown:

Picture the Clips sometime B.B.G. (Before Blake Griffin) and it’s a lot easier to understand how a team from the second-biggest market in basketball could rank dead last. In fact, L.A. not only finished last, but last with a bullet—it truly wasn’t close. The Clippers finished farther behind in the big-market survey than the lowly Charlotte Bobcats did in the small-market survey. And natch, L.A.’s second sons managed to finish behind all five of the proper “mid-market” teams that were upgraded into bigs for the purpose of these rankings.

Another thing the Clippers had in common with the Bobcats, 34 seasons and seven playoff seasons their juniors? What anchored both teams to the bottom of the rankings were dead-last finishes in team heritage and winning percentage.

And just how bad does that make the Clippers? Just three teams who have played more than one NBA season sport a worse all-time record than L.A. And those three teams (Bobcats, Memphis Grizzlies, Baltimore Bullets) collectively have played in just 34 total seasons—still nine short of the four decades of misery the Clippers have inflicted on pro basketball.

Hopes for the future do exist. Stunningly, the Clips garnered better fan support (100.8 percent of capacity, sixth in the NBA) than the storied Los Angeles Lakers franchise that overshadows them in the Staples Center. And on the floor, the team’s .606 winning percentage (40-24) in 2011-12 was the best in franchise history.

14. Toronto Raptors (10.0)

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Ranking Breakdown:

With the Toronto Raptors in yet another rebuild mode and the Clippers pointed more toward a Finals berth, there’s a fair chance that Toronto slips to the bottom of the big-market rankings before things turn around up north.

There’s just not a lot to be excited about up Raptors way. The team ranks no better than average in any given category; on the floor, Toronto is thankful the Clippers exist, because otherwise it would be sitting in the basement of these rankings.

Put another way, with only five playoff berths in 18 seasons (at a time when the league consistently has advanced more than half of its teams to the postseason), Toronto has made the playoffs little more than a quarter of the time. That’s downright pathetic.

13. Brooklyn Nets (9.7)

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Ranking Breakdown:

Of all the things that can be said about the this franchise, which struck gold in the ABA by snatching Julius Erving from the Virginia Squires and would go on to win two titles, is that it’s been downhill since inception.

Perhaps the brightest note for the future is in the name change (New Jersey Americans>New York Nets>New Jersey Nets>Brooklyn Nets). The team has a new home, a presumed new fan base, and better (if historically inauthentic) connection to its declared home city.

Brooklyn owner Mikhail Prokhorov has poured money into the team and has managed to keep costs relatively low for fans; despite playing in the biggest market in North America, fan cost for Nets games is $272.74, ranking on the cheaper end of the big-market survey. Prokhorov is likely to be rewarded in the team’s new home and witness a leap forward from 77.5 percent capacity in the stands, second-worst in the league in 2011-12.

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12. Detroit Pistons (9.3)

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Ranking Breakdown:

There’s good news and bad news here for the Detroit Pistons, which would truly better fit in a “mid-market” category of NBA clubs.

The bad, and where Detroit fails miserably in the survey, are areas the Pistons simply can’t do much about, operating in a relatively small market with scant signs of future growth.

But there’s a lot to like about Detroit’s shot at redemption. Fan support is understandably low, given the current ebb of a franchise with a strong history and two different eras of title runs—although filling the Palace to the tune of just 65.3 percent, worst of all NBA teams by more than 10 percent—is embarrassing.

However, the Pistons are providing the fourth-lowest fan cost in this survey, so fans should begin to creep back along with a few more wins. And the team itself will always have a strong history to fall back on and market.

11. Washington Wizards (9.1)

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Ranking Breakdown:

How have the Washington Wizards managed to keep fans (82.9 percent of capacity, 23rd in the NBA) where a team like Detroit has failed? For starters, the Wiz boast the lowest fan cost among the big-market clubs at $212.54, fourth-best in the NBA.

And the future, at least off of the court, looks bright as well. Washington boasts a unique pairing of a sizable market that is still very much growing—Washington has the sixth-brightest future growth market in North America.

Things haven’t often worked out well in Washington, as indicated by the awful rankings the team suffers with regard to winning. If the Wiz can solve that missing piece—a big one to be sure—it will easily become the toast of the Southeast Division.

10. Golden State Warriors (9.0)

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Ranking Breakdown:

Back in the days of Wilt Chamberlain, stuck back in Philly and in the Eastern Time Zone, the Warriors were a proud and successful franchise. Out west, save for an underdog NBA title in 1975 and the flirtation with greatness of Run-TMC, things have been proceeding slowly downhill.

It’s going to be hard, then, for the Golden State Warriors to remain in this top 10 for long. But Golden State is trying its hardest to remain viable in the Bay Area, most impressively by charging fans low prices ($252.50 fan cost, eighth-cheapest in the NBA).

9. New York Knicks (8.3)

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Ranking Breakdown:

The New York Knicks are big dogs by reputation, but that reputation peters out when you consider New York doesn’t even maintain a winning record as a franchise (.498, 17th among NBA clubs).

So with that middling reputation, what is there to encourage the Knickerbockers into the top 10 big-market clubs? Well, it doesn’t hurt to be the primary destination in all of basketball—Madison Square Garden in New York City is the top hooping destination in the top market in the land. Future growth also projects pretty well for the city, so in spite of fierce competition and otherworldly prices ($608.78, worst in the league by almost a Benjamin), the Knicks should hold steady in this survey.

8. Miami Heat (7.4)

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Ranking Breakdown:

Thanks to the Big Three and the 2012 NBA title—already the franchise’s second of the century—the Miami Heat are in the top 10 with a bullet, in spite of being a true “mid-market” club.

It’s also thanks to MVP LeBron James and the Heat’s incredible star power that Miami can pull off the unusually successful move of charging preposterously high prices ($423.00 per game is third-highest in the NBA) in a tiny market, yet draw fans in at a phenomenal rate (101.7 percent of capacity, fifth in the league).

The chances of Miami sustaining itself so well despite being such a modest market doesn’t look good past the Big Three. But for the time being and as wins roll in, the Heat stand a fair chance of cracking the top five big-market clubs.

7. Los Angeles Lakers (7.3)

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Ranking Breakdown:

At a time when the Los Angeles Lakers seemed to be flagging a bit, the Lakers went out and got better real quick, as they seem so often to do, with the acquisition of Dwight Howard.

On the floor, the Lakers have unquestionably been the NBA’s greatest team. Sure, they trail the Boston Celtics in titles, 17-16, but year-to-year L.A. rarely fails to be in the mix. It’s considered phenomenal that the San Antonio Spurs have missed the playoffs just six times in 46 seasons, an 87 percent frequency. Yet L.A. has also missed the playoffs just six times—in 65 seasons, a 91 percent success rate. Boston is just 50-for-67, not exactly pedestrian, but not the amazing rate of the Lakers, either.

It’s downright shocking to realize that the Clippers outdrew the Lakers in the Staples Center in 2011 (634,237 to 626,901) until you see that the Clips charged fans almost a couple hundred dollars less per game and ending up just one win worse in the standings.

It’s not exactly time to look over your shoulders, Lakers. But the Clippers are making a little bit of noise in the Staples Center, for once.

6. Atlanta Hawks (7.1)

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Ranking Breakdown:

The Atlanta Hawks manage the basics very well. The Hawks are in a fair-sized market with scant competition, but are still smart enough to charge fans a relative pittance ($238.52 cost index, seventh in the NBA).

Of course, it all only works so well for so long when fans actually show up to Philips Arena—which they haven’t (the Hawks’ 81.2 percent capacity there is 24th in the NBA).

The good news is that the sprawling Atlanta Metropolitan Area continues growing unabated, so there are new potential fans of the club arriving every single day.

5. Chicago Bulls (6.6)

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Ranking Breakdown:

The Chicago Bulls catch plentiful hell for being a rich-get-richer club unwilling to pass on savings to their fans—or, perhaps, even funnel the profits back into the team via luxury tax.

Well, in spite of the solid showing in this ranking, there’s little evidence of Chicago’s innocence on those charges. The team attracts a heel-soring 105.9 percent of capacity, tied for tops with the Dallas Mavericks and the envy of empty standing-room areas in quieter stadiums from coast to coast. Yet Chicago fan costs are high even per market size, resting at $393.98, pricier than all but three other NBA teams.

What’s impressive about Chicago’s standing in the NBA is that despite it being 14 seasons since the last sniff of an NBA title, the Bulls continue to be marketed as and considered a champion. Times are sunnier with Derrick Rose now in tow, but there were some extraordinarily lean years among those 14 seasons, but it’s a virtual lock that the Bulls would have never dropped from the top 10—quite possibly the top five—in this survey no matter how many Kornel Davids were taking the floor.

4. Houston Rockets (6.5)

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Ranking Breakdown:

The Houston Rockets really do enjoy the catbird seat in these rankings. While they can’t overcome residing in just the 11th biggest market in the league, it can control its other poor showing here, fan support (85.1 percent capacity at the Toyota Center, 19th in the NBA).

Otherwise, what’s not to like? The club keeps costs down and has little competition for fan dollars. Houston also boasts the best future growth potential of all the big-market clubs and is considered the fifth-biggest future market in all of North America. The Rockets have also managed a fairly storied history since moving from San Diego in 1971.

Sure, Daryl Morey has caught much hell as a sabermetrician GM in Houston. But the numbers point to the Rockets remaining a big-market NBA powerhouse for years to come.

3. Boston Celtics (6.4)

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Ranking Breakdown:

All right, so the Boston Garden is gone, and there are no nails sticking out of visiting locker room walls as “hangers” or hidden dead spots in the parquet floor any longer. But the Boston Celtics still boast more mystique than any other NBA team, and combined with a healthy market, remain high among the franchises in this survey.

In terms of heritage, Boston is second only to (perhaps) the Los Angeles Lakers, and fan demand (100 percent of capacity, tied for seventh in the NBA) continues to outpace costs ($393.60, fifth-highest in the league).

There are some signals that a downturn is possible, namely modest market size (ninth in the league) weighed against future growth (Boston is just the 37th-hottest growth market in North America). But against the backdrop of 17 titles and a still-viable club in 2012-13, don’t bet on a slip happening any time soon.

2. Dallas Mavericks (6.0)

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Ranking Breakdown:

In so many ways, Mark Cuban’s Dallas Mavericks are a model NBA franchise. The only ranking here that sits worse than eighth is in the category of team heritage, which for a team extant since just 1980 isn’t exactly a fair fight anyway.

The Mavericks take perfect advantage of Dallas’ healthy market and give their fans quite a bargain. While Chicago averages the same preposterous overcapacity at the United Center as the Mavs do at American Airlines Center, it costs fans down south about $82 less per game to see just as competitive and entertaining a team.

Cuban’s franchise has a bright future off the floor as well, with the third-best future growth rate among big markets and paltry competition in the Dallas market that seems made for future Mavericks domination.

1. Philadelphia 76ers (5.7)

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Ranking Breakdown:

Hold your hand up high if you thought when first clicking onto this story that the Philadelphia 76ers would rank as the top big-market club in the NBA.

OK, really everyone, put your hands down, because you lie, and you don’t lie well.

Philadelphia is a perfect storm of big market, strong team, and reasonable costs. It ranks above average in all areas but the easily-correctable fan support (86.1 percent of capacity, 18th in the NBA) and is in the top five in three of seven categories.

One aid, and the type of result that finished the Sixers ahead of Dallas somewhat handily, is reasonable fan costs per the market. In spite of residing in the sixth-biggest NBA market, Philadelphia kept costs to $263.90, 10th in the entire league. Undoubtedly the 76ers would like to nudge that figure northward in coming seasons, and with an increasingly competitive team, they can do just that.

The Sixers haven’t dominated this survey the way San Antonio did the little guys, but coach Doug Collins and his band of young scrappers should be proud of the part they played in ascending the Sixers to the top of the big-market heap.