It doesn't matter what year it is or whether the draft is considered deep or weak. There will always be teams that reach too much or put a little too much stock in potential, and make the wrong pick.
In a lot of ways, the draft is a crap-shoot, but the teams that make the most of their picks ensure they will be consistent winners, rather than bottom feeders.
Look at the Spurs. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are good examples of well placed draft picks. On the flip side, you can look at Atlanta as an example of what a disaster looks like.
The Marvin Williams and Sheldon Williams picks are basically keeping the Hawks from progressing past the second round of the playoffs.
Those high lottery picks don't grow on trees. The whole point is to come out of it with at least a solid starter. You don't want your top eight pick to be a J.J. Redick or an Adam Morrison.
Just as sure as there will be players that will be taken way too early, there will be players that should have been drafted sooner.
For me, I would not get too complicated with the pick by looking at too many metrics or too many of the individual gifts that the player has.
If you are a baller with good instincts and showed it on a national stage against top-notch competition, the chances are good that you will be a productive pro. When I say baller, I'm talking about a Kemba Walker or a Sheldon Mack or a Derrick Williams, etc.
Here are five players that will cause quite a few teams to kick themselves because they had an opportunity to draft them, but watched other teams picking later, snatch them up.