2011 NBA Draft Lottery: Best and Worst Scenarios for All 14 Lottery Teams
The Ping-Pong balls of the 2011 NBA draft lottery are counted. The representatives have arrived in Newark, New Jersey. Everyone is ready to see who will end up with the opportunity to select presumed No. 1 pick Kyrie Irving and those following.
One riveting aspect of the lottery is unexpected winners. In all the coverage of the event, the teams' odds of winning are broadcast in the viewer's face constantly; we know who's supposed to win and who would be shocked to win. Rarely does the lottery go by the odds: only four times in the 25-year history of the lottery has the most likely team actually won the top pick.
Long-shot winners happen all the time, ruining the plans of the teams with the previous year's worst records. However, in weaker drafts as this year's, it can be a blessing in disguise to be forced down from the top pick(s).
What follows is the best- and worst-case scenario for each of the 14 lottery teams. Taken into account are probabilities of winning the draft, current roster makeup/needs and the projected slot of top prospects.ย
14. Houston Rockets (0.5 Percent Chance of Winning)
1 of 14
Best Case
Landing anywhere besides their projected 14th pick. When you're this far down in the lottery, it usually means you're one piece away from contending in the postseason, as the first team to miss the playoffs. Teams like this probably don't have glaring positional needs, but could benefit simply from getting the best player on the board.ย
Landing a center or small forward should be the top priority for GM Daryl Morey. Texas sophomore Jordan Hamilton would be a great swingman to draft around 14th, though a center at that pick is unlikely. Other possibilities include Florida State small forward Chris Singleton or big power forward Markieff Morris.
Worst Case
Landing at 14 and losing out on Hamilton, Alec Burks and both Morris twins. The Rockets aren't getting an elite point guard or big man that far down, and scoring small forwards are scarce in this draft.
The worst case for the Rockets is getting stuck in a pick where they have to reach for a small forward/center or select another power forward.
13. Phoenix Suns (0.6 Percent)
2 of 14
Best Case
Plain and simple: get BYU guard and National Player of the Year Jimmer Fredette. The Suns are looking for players who can integrate seamlessly into the fast-break offense that emphasizes outside shooting. Jimmer is a guard that can handle, run and definitely shoot. He would be a good complement to Steve Nash while Nash is still around, and an adequate replacement at point when Nash moves on.
Worst Case
Winningย a pick that is too high. Fredette is the clear match for Phoenix. The problem is, he's a bit of a reach to be picked at even the end of the lottery. The Suns, projected at 13th, feel good about picking Fredette there and are confident that no one above them would take him.
If the Suns luck into a top-10 pick or higher, they'll still want Jimmer, but won't be able to ignore the feeling that they're seriously reaching for him roughly 10 picks too early. They will be tempted to draft a player that doesn't fit their system simply because the value is right for where they're picking. Life will be a lot simpler for Alvin Gentry and Co. if the lottery plays out as it should.ย
12. Utah Jazz (0.7 Percent)
3 of 14
Best Case
The Utah Jazz have twoย picks in the lottery, so the maximization of this pick isn't as essential as for other teams. The Jazz, with the New Jersey Nets' lottery pick from the Deron Williams trade, will likely pick in the top six with their first selection and are simply looking to fill a need on either wing spot with this one. Raja Bell, Gordon Heyward, C.J. Miles and Andrei Kirilenko take up most of the minutes, which is why the Jazz are looking to upgrade.
Colorado sophomore Alec Burks, projected right around where Utah should pick, is the best athlete in this draft and knows how to score at 6'6". He could start at SG right away for Utah, and they'd consider this pick a success.
Worst Case
There really are a lot of favorable options for the Jazz, so the worst case happening is a long shot. Missing all the late-lottery perimeter targetsโJordan Hamilton, Alec Burks, Chris Singleton and Marcus Morrisโwould be devastating, but the chances of losing out on all four of those players are low.ย ย
11. Golden State Warriors (0.8 Percent)
4 of 14
Best Case
The Lithuanian forward, Jonas Valanciunas. The 6'10" big man boasts great versatility, including a rare penchant for running the floor. It would be a huge win for the Warriors after the top 10 to add depth to the paint while accentuating their breakneck offensive style.ย
Valanciunas is a work in progress still, and is projected inside the top eight or so. Picking in that range or lucking into this player at their projected spot would be great for Golden State.
Worst Case
Missing out on any of the great athletes at the end of the lottery: Valanciunas, Jordan Hamilton, Alec Burks or Markieff Morris. Any of these players would add depth to the Warriors front line while thriving in the wide-open and unstructured attack. The Warriors won't be picky, as long as they don't end up having to pick toward places of strengthโthe backcourt and center. ย ย ย
10. Milwaukee Bucks (1.1 Percent)
5 of 14
Best Case
Getting as high as possible to increase the chances of drafting Texas power forward Tristan Thompson. Looking at the Bucks depth chart, the only real position of need is at power forward. And it's a glaring need. Thompson is the only low-post player of his kind (the classic, physical, scoring kind) that would be worth drafting this high.ย
The Bucks would be justified in taking Thompson as high as sixth or seventh, but also would be likely to find him on the board at No. 11 or No. 12.ย
Worst Case
Getting caught in a slot where only Bismack Biyombo and wing players like Jordan Hamilton, Alec Burks and Marcus Morris are available. The Bucks are set at center (Andrew Bogut), small forward (Carlos Delfino and Corey Maggette) and shooting guard (John Salmons and Chris Douglas-Roberts), and would prefer to eliminate the confusion at power forward by getting Thompson.ย
This all depends on who gets taken ahead of Milwaukee's pick, but the higher the Bucks go in the lottery, the better their chances of securing Thompson.
9. Charlotte Bobcats (1.7 Percent)
6 of 14
Best Case
Land in the top three and draft Enes Kanter to fill the void at center, or trade out of the lottery to get a less-heralded big man.ย
Currently, the Bobcats are working with Kwame Brown, DeSagana Diop and the free-agent Joel Przybilla on the roster at center. They can't possibly enter the season with that arrangement and hope to even sniff the playoffs. Even if they don't get a center who can contribute immediately, the Bobcats need to begin moving in the right direction in the post with a young and talented shot-blocker.ย
Worst Case
Falling out of the top 12 where the best values are forwards and guards. Charlotte ties up a lot of shots with Stephen Jackson, D.J. Augustin and Gerald Henderson at the three guard spots. Power forward is heavy on the depth chart, so adding another would be superfluous.ย
The worst case would be for the Bobcats to miss out on Kanter and Bismack Biyombo in the top 10 and not trade down to get another center later.ย
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (2.8 Percent)
7 of 14
Best Case
Earn the fifth or sixth pick in order to select Jan Vesely, Kawhi Leonard or Marcus Morris. The Cavs have a big problem at small forward and could use help from an elite perimeter rebounder. The center position is weak for Cleveland and, short of making changes there, will need a physical and athletic player like Leonard to help on the glass.ย
Worst Case
Landing in the Tristan Thompson/Jonas Valanciunas/Bismack Biyombo area and being forced to stoop low to get Chris Singleton or Jordan Hamilton. These are players that could undoubtedly help the Cavs, but drafting them is not ideal in comparison to the players at they could get at the top.ย ย
7. Detroit Pistons (4.3 Percent)
8 of 14
Best Case
One of two options: lucking into a top-five spot to swoop point guard Brandon Knight or staying right where they are to get center Bismack Biyombo. The Pistons would love to get another Ben Wallace-type center that will allow Greg Monroe to move back to PF and focus on scoring, or get a playmaking point guard that will allow Rodney Stuckey to move off the ball and eliminate Rip Hamilton and Ben Gordon from the rotation.
Worst Case
Seeing big forwards Jan Vesely, Jonas Valanciunas and Tristan Thompson as the best names on the board. This will mean that the Pistons fell below their desired position to get Knight or Biyombo and must add to positions of depth at power or small forward.
6. Utah Jazz (7.5 Percent)
9 of 14
Best Case
Staying in view of Kemba Walker in the No. 5 to No. 6 range. This is the pick that the Jazz cannot screw up. They'd love to get a playmaking scorer at the point that can create shots for himself and teammates. They also need the freedom to move Devin Harris, who is clearly not in their future plans.
Worst Case
Losing on Walker and Brandon Knight by falling too low. There is a glut of forward talent in this draft, which is precisely where the Jazz are strong. If they get stuck in the end of the top 10 where all the forwards are waiting, they'll be forced to trade the pick or trade the player they choose with the pick.
5. Sacramento Kings (7.6 Percent)
10 of 14
Best Case
Stay in the top five where Kemba Walker and Jan Vesely are. The Kings will take Walker without hesitation to plug in at point guard and allow Tyreke Evans to move off the ball. This will improve the flow and balance of the Kings offense immensely.ย
Vesely would be a great addition at small forward because of his ability to help out down low and play physically with size.
Worst Case
Losing out on the two point guards, Walker and Brandon Knight. Plain and simple, the only thing the Kings are focusing on here is finding a franchise point guard. They're in a great position to do that, so anything less will be the worst case.
4. Washington Wizards (11.9 Percent)
11 of 14
Best Case
Landing in the top two to solve the plaguing issue at small forward by drafting Derrick Williams. Jan Vesely would satisfy the need as well, but is far less preferable to the Wiz.ย
Worst Case
Falling two or three spots to where Vesely is gone and the point guards are the best remaining players. This means that Washington will have to reach for a small forward and ignore theย prodigious point guards in front of them based on the John Wall factor.
3. Toronto Raptors (15.6 Percent)
12 of 14
Best Case
Hitting the lottery at No. 1 with the opportunity to draft Kyrie Irving or Derrick Williams to fill big needs. The Raps don't really need a center of power forward, which is what they'd find at No. 3 with Enes Kanter. Moving up would benefit them greatly.
Worst Case
Falling out of the top five where they'll miss on the elite point guard and small forward prospects they desperately need. Expecting plenty of options at No. 3 and then falling to sixth or seventh where there are far more limits would be a nightmare that the Raptors cannot wake up from.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (19.9 Percent)
13 of 14
Best Case
Winning the draft lottery is a huge psychological boost for the Cleveland Cavaliers, as well as a competitive boost. They'll happily take Derrick Williams or Kyrie Irving to significantly improve the starting five.
Worst Case
Any fall out of the top two. They'd find good players outside the top two, but most agree that the true impact players in this draft are limited to the top two. If they don't get one of them, it will be a disappointment.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves (25 Percent)
14 of 14
Best Case
Just like Cleveland: getting one of the top two. They'd prefer Kyrie Irving to end all point guard discussion once and for all, but Derrick Williams would shore up some of the weakness on the perimeter and provide maneuverability with Michael Beasley and Williams to move around.
Worst Case
Cut and dry: missing the top two. The Wolves don't want a center like Enes Kanter at No. 3, and they don't really need a help down low in general. Fortunately, Kemba Walker and Brandon Knight wait just a few spots down, providing the Wolves a safety net in case of lottery disaster.ย
With theย NBA Draftย approaching,ย NBA Mock Draft seasonย is here. Stay tuned to Bleacher Report for updated mock drafts, along with the latest NBA Draft news, analysis, rumors and predictions.
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