NBA Draft 2011: Does Jimmer Winning the NCAA Player of Year Equal NBA Success?

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HOUSTON - APRIL 03: Jimmer Fredette of BYU received the 2011 Naismith Trophy Presented by AT&T at the NABC Guardians of the Game Awards Program on April 3, 2011 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

2011 NCAA College Basketball Player of the Year, Jimmer Fredette
Bob Levey/Getty Images

College Basketball seems to get it right.

Every season, hundreds of basketball programs across the country work to produce some of the best basketball players in the world.

As hard as the players from every team work, when it is all said and done, only one player can win the highest individual honor that the NCAA has for a basketball player, the Naismith College Player of the Year Award.

The 2011 winner of this award is a man who is known only by his first name, and through his play caused a nation of basketball fans to take notice.

After he dropped 43 points on then fourth ranked San Diego State, NBA superstar Kevin Durant tweeted out "Jimmer Fredette is the best scorer in the world!!"

Despite his success at the collegiate level, he remains one of the most polarizing players in this years draft. There are those that love his ability to score and think he will be a great NBA player, and there are those who think his lack of defense will make him a liability.

If history is on his side, he will be get a chance to prove all of his doubters wrong, and should be drafted in a good position. Since 1980, a college player of the year winner has not been drafted later than the 20th position (Jameer Nelson 2004).

I don't anticipate Jimmer becoming the first overall pick, but he should go somewhere in the lottery.

The following slides show where some of the past winners of the NCAA Player of the Year Award since 1980 have been drafted, and the NBA success they have had.

The Hall of Famers

SPRINGFIELD, MA - SEPTEMBER 11: Michael Jordan is inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame during a ceremony on September 11, 2009 in Springfield, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading

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The players in this category are some of the elite. The careers they had are some of the best in NBA history, and easily the best of the Naismith Award winners since 1980.

I do not not think that Jimmer will have a career that compares to any in this group, but he is in good company with other player of the year winners.

I have included Tim Duncan in this list of the Hall of Fame players even though he is currently active. There is no doubt that he will be inducted the first year that he is eligible.

Player, Award Year	College	Draft Position and Team	Seasons in League	All-Star Appearances	NBA Titles	Other Accomplishments
Micheal Jordan	North Carolina	3rd, Chicago Bulls	15	14	6	Greatest Player in League History
Patrick Ewing	Georgetown	1st, NY Knicks	17	11	0	NBA Rookie of the Year
David Robinson	Navy	1st, San Antonio Spurs	14	10	2	4 Time NBA First Team
Tim Duncan*	Wake Forest	1st, San Antonio Spurs	14 (Active)	13	4	2 Time NBA MVP

Those Who Had a Solid Career

8 Feb 1996: Forward Larry Johnson #2 of the Charlotte Hornets attempts to dribble drive around a defender from the Sacramento Kings during the Hornet''s 115-105 victory over the Kings at the Charlotte Coliseum in Charlotte, North Carolina. Mandatory Cr

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In this category are the players who enjoyed a good career in the NBA but never really made it to super-stardom.

Coming out of college, some were expected to be the next great players. For others, injuries cut short promising careers, and although they did perform well, they did not fully live up to the hype.

For the most part, each of these players had a long career and have been difference makers for their teams.

Player, Award Year	College	Draft Position and Team	Season in League	All-Star Appearances	NBA Titles	Other Accomplishments
Ralph Sampson 1981, 1982, 1983	Virginia	1st Houston Rockets	10	4	0	1 of 2 Multiple POY Award Winners (Bill Walton)
Larry Johnson 1991	UNLV	1st Charlotte Hornets	10	2	0	Grand-mama
Marcus Camby 1996	Massachusetts	2nd Toronto Raptors	16 (Active)	0	0	2 Time Defensive 1st Team
Antawn Jamison 1998	North Carolina	4th Toronto Raptors	14 (Active)	2	0	2005 Sixth Man of the Year
Elton Brand 1999	Duke	1st Chicago Bulls	12 (Active)	2	0	2000 NBA 1st Team

The Rising Stars

LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 19: Blake Griffin #32 of the Los Angeles Clippers dunks the ball over a car in the final round of the Sprite Slam Dunk Contest apart of NBA All-Star Saturday Night at Staples Center on February 19, 2011 in Los Angeles, Californ

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The NBA is full of rising stars. Several of the best of these also won the Naismith Award in college.

While the full measure of their careers will not be known for several years, here is a list of those who are the future of the league.

These are the players that are helping the NBA undergo a shift from the established players of the past who are on the tail end of their careers into the exciting young players on rising teams.

Player, Award Year	College	Draft Position and Team	Season in League	All-Star Appearances	NBA Titles	Other Accomplishments
Andrew Bogut	Utah	1st Milwaukee Bucks	6	0	0	NBA All-Rookie Team
Kevin Durant	Texas	2nd Seattle Supersonics	4	2	0	2 Time Scoring Champion
Blake Griffin	Oklahoma	1st LA Clippers	1	1	0	2011 Slam Dunk Champion

The Disappointments

19 Mar 1997: Forward Lionel Simmons of the Sacramento Kings shoots a foul shot during a game against the Los Angeles Clippers at the Los Angeles Sport Arena in Los Angeles, California. The Clippers won the game 108-98. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bahr /All

Brian Bahr/Getty Images

Listed here are the players who came out of college with a huge amount of potential, but careers in the NBA never really worked out.

For several, injuries do factor into reasons why they were not as successful as expected.

Included here is Jason Williams of Duke. His story is unfortunate, and he is not here because of his playing ability.

In his first season he was showing signs of promise until a motorcycle accident nearly took his life. Although he attempted to come back, his abilities were not the same.

Player, Award Year	College	Draft Position and Team	Seasons in League	All-Star Appearances	NBA Titles	Drafted Before
Johnny Dawkins	Duke	10th San Antonio Spurs	9	0	0	John Salley, Dell Curry, Arvydas Sabonis
Danny Ferry	Duke	2nd LA Clippers	13	0	1	Glen Rice, Tim Hardaway, Vlade Divac
Lionel Simmons	LaSalle	7th Sacramento Kings	7	0	0	Dee Brown, Elden Campbell
Jason Williams	Duke	2nd Chicago Bulls	2	0	0	Amare Stoudemire, Caron Butler
J.J. Redick	Duke	11th Orlando Magic	5	0	0	Rajon Rondo, Thabo Sefolosha

So What About Jimmer, Where Will He Fit?

NEW ORLEANS, LA - MARCH 24: Jimmer Fredette #32 of the Brigham Young Cougars warms up prior to their game against the Florida Gators in the Southeast regional of the 2011 NCAA men's basketball tournament at New Orleans Arena on March 24, 2011 in New Orle

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So what about Jimmer Fredette?

After leading College Basketball in scoring, taking his team to the Sweet 16 for the first time in 30 years and impressing multiple NBA superstars, where does he rank on the list?

Many have speculated that it depends on the team and the offense that they run to determine his future success.

While he comes into this draft following a great college career, he still has a lot of questions about his NBA future.

Which team will draft him?

What will his career look like?

Will he become a Hall of Famer, have a good career but nothing spectacular, or will he be another great player at the college level who struggles in the NBA?

Let me know what you think.

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