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Some of what happens will depend on whether Hinrich is around, but that won't be the difference between Atlanta winning and losing.
At best it will be the difference between getting swept and not getting swept. At best, Atlanta will extend the series to six games.
Chicago has lost only five games since Feb 9 while winning 32-5. Even when they've been played tight they tend to pull out the grinding games.
Atlanta on the other hand has lost five games since April 9, and the only ones they've won are the four playoff games against Orlando. Of course those are the important ones. They are 12-16 since Feb 27.
Atlanta and Chicago are the two best teams this year in games decided by five points or less, so if it comes to grinding out a win, it should be very interesting and the advantage probably goes to the home team.
On the other side of the spectrum Chicago won 32 games by double digits, third most in the NBA while Atlanta was blown out 22 times, most of any team playoff team. If Chicago builds an early lead it's unlikely that Atlanta will come back.(Unlikely doesn't mean impossible though. Atlanta did comeback against Chicago this year after trailing by 17 at the half.)
Chicago has the better starting five, the better bench, the better coach and the best player on the court. On top of that they have outplayed Atlanta in the regular season, and unlike Indiana (who they did win 4-1 by the way, some act as though they barely won the series) Atlanta's not a very good defensive team.
In terms of matchups it's hard to see where Atlanta can really exploit Chicago. There biggest mismatch is Joe Johnson, but Johnson's strength is perimeter shooting (only 19 percent of his field goals are in the paint) and Chicago is so good and limiting good shots.
Meanwhile Chicago's biggest strength is Derrick Rose, and there''s really no Rose-stopper on the Hawks. If they use Hoford in help defense he'll get in early foul trouble and open up the possibility for Boozer to get going.
We know that prayer won't work either. Michael Jordan is proof that God is a Bulls' fan.
The one chance they really have is that Chicago comes out flat. They are actually worse,-3.7 efficiency differential on three days plus of rest. They've gone just 2-4 in those games. The thing is Atlanta tend to get flat as well and are 3-5 on extended rest with an efficiency differential of -2.7. If Atlanta can be sharp and Chicago starts flat, then Atlanta could steal Game 1.
However it's unlikely that after what happened with Indiana that Chicago will come out flat. Look for them to dominate the games at home and for the games in Atlanta to be close. The Hawks could squeeze out one or two home games, but they won't win in Chicago and it won't go to seven.
Prediction: Bulls in five or six if Hinrich plays, four or five if he doesn't.