NBA Draft: Re-Drafting The 2010 First Round With What We Know Now
More than halfway through the 2010-11 NBA regular season, some teams are no doubt looking at the rookies they selected in the 2010 NBA Draft and experiencing drafter's remorse. If they are being completely honest with themselves, these same teams have to be looking at other rookies who are producing at a higher level than their own and wondering what life would be like if they had just drafted someone else.
Well, those teams should question themselves no longer. We will show what could have been if teams were given the chance to have a do-over of the first round of the 2010 NBA Draft, these are the players they would choose now
This will operate under the assumption that a team would take the most productive and efficient player available regardless of need—a policy teams should be following anyway. Also, all draft-day trades that occurred in the actual 2010 NBA Draft are being ignored as all teams will be getting the most valuable rookie for them.
No. 1 Pick: Landry Fields, Washington Wizards
If Blake Griffin were not currently tearing up the NBA, New York Knicks F Landry Fields would be the leading candidate for Rookie of the Year. His rookie season is about all you could wish for from a first-year player.
A very efficient offensive player, Fields is playing his role absolutely perfectly. His 61.2 true shooting percentage, 116 points produced per 100 possessions, and 12.6 defensive rebounding percentage are all third on the Knicks among players receiving regular time.
Not only is Fields an effective scorer when he is called upon to take shots, but he is a player who crashes the boards well.
In addition to his offense, his 1.7 steal percentage shows he can play defense as well.
No. 2: Patrick Patterson, Philadelphia 76ers
Quite simply, the Houston Rockers are not playing F Patrick Patterson enough. Whenever they have given him extended minutes, he has performed well and has shown the potential to be a pretty good NBA player.
In just 12.5 minutes per game, Patterson has a 61.6 true shooting percentage with 124 points produced per 100 possessions, which demonstrates his ability to score the ball efficiently. He has even put up a 17.2 PER in his limited time on the court.
If given more playing time and allowed to take more shots, Patterson's offensive numbers might take a small tumble, but they would still be plenty good enough for any NBA general manager to be happy about his future and how this pick was used.
No. 3: Ed Davis, New Jersey Nets
The New Jersey Nets have to be pleased with the player they did select in the draft, Derrick Favors. But the franchise might be slightly happier with F Ed Davis.
Davis is even more of a monster rebounder than Favors has been. Davis's 12.2 offensive rebounding percentage, 21.0 defensive rebounding, and 16.5 total rebounding percentage are all third—behind Reggie Evans and Joey Dorsey—on the Toronto Raptors among players receiving regular minutes.
However, Davis is a better scorer than both of those players as he currently sports a 56.9 true shooting percentage and 122 points produced per 100 possessions along with a 14.9 PER.
The only thing holding Davis back from being even more productive is his horrendous 54.8 free throw percentage.
No. 4: Paul George, Minnesota Timberwolves
With F Paul George, the Minnesota Timberwolves would not have needed to acquire Michael Beasley, who is actually having a worse overall season than he did last year with the Miami Heat; Beasley is experiencing a drop-off in his win shares per 48 minutes from 0.095 last season to 0.062 this season.
George, meanwhile, is having a very productive rookie year. He is only averaging 6.6 points per game, but he is averaging 15.9 points per 36 minutes; he is doing that on 57.9 true shooting percentage and 113 points produced per 100 possessions. He is a good offensive player who should be able to take on even more of a team's offensive possessions.
George certainly has earned more minutes and more shots with his play this season.
No, 5: Derrick Favors, Sacramento Kings
Instead of getting the offensively-inefficient headcase that is DeMarcus Cousins, the Kings get a true power forward talent in Derrick Favors.
Favors' 13.3 offensive rebounding percentage, 18.0 defensive rebounding percentage, and 15.7 total rebounding percentage yields a slight rebounding edge to Cousins, but Favors is a much better scorer.
Favors' true shooting percentage of 58.0 percent and his offensive rating of 112 points produced per 100 possessions trump anything Cousins has done this season.
Also, if Favors can learn to keep his turnovers down, he will be even better.
No. 6: Greg Monroe, Golden State Warriors
Greg Monroe would give the Golden State Warriors a player that fills two needs.
The first need is for the team to stockpile as many productive and efficient players as they can. The second need is to make their power forward and center positions a place of strength instead of the weaknesses they are currently; power forward and center are the only positions where the Warriors are being outperformed this year.
Monroe is averaging 6.4 points per game on 51.6 true shooting percentage and 108 points produced per 100 possessions. He is not setting the world on fire offensively, but he is playing pretty well compared to his fellow rookies and should improve over his career.
He is also an adequate rebounder with a 15.6 total rebounding percentage.
No. 7: John Wall, Detroit Pistons
This is probably a lot lower than most John Wall fans were expecting. The fact is, despite all the publicity the point guard is receiving, there is no denying that Wall simply is not playing that well this season .
Lost among Wall's 15.1 points and 9.3 assists per game is how he has been reaching those numbers. Wall has been shooting the ball horribly this season as his dismal below-average 49.2 true shooting percentage and disappointing 99 points per 100 possessions indicate.
As for Wall's assists, his 41.4 assist percentage is marred by his 20.3 turnover percentage, a rate that calls for improvement before his production catches up with his hype.
Wall is a very good pickpocket, though. His 2.5 steal percentage shows he is a threat to take the ball away from his opponent at any time.
On the bright side, Wall's rookie year is just a tiny bit better than the rookie year that G Russell Westbrook had. If Wall can improve his game in the same way that Westbrook has, he will become an elite point guard.However, he is not close to one right now.
No. 8: James Anderson, Los Angeles Clippers
If G James Anderson had not developed a stress fracture, he might be getting a lot more publicity for his play as a rookie.
In the six games he appeared Anderson has showed quite the shooting touch. He has scored 7.0 points per game, had a 58.9 true shooting percentage, and produced 114 points per 100 possessions. With that kind of shooting proficiency, Anderson would be able to earn minutes on any team.
The Detroit Pistons would be pleased to have a really good shooter like Anderson on their roster.
No. 9: DeMarcus Cousins, Utah Jazz
Forward DeMarcus Cousins is another rookie whose points per game total is hiding his lack of offensive efficiency, but there is still some value in Cousins' game.
For the season, Cousins is averaging 12.9 points per game, but he is taking 11.8 field goal attempts per game to get there. With that type of ratio, it should not be a surprise that his true shooting percentage is just 47.2 percent and his offensive rating is 93 points produced per 100 possessions.
Still, the rookie class of 2010 is so weak, he remains one of the better picks.
Cousins does excel at one thing, though, and that is grabbing rebounds. He has a pretty impressive 16.5 total rebounding percentage for the season.
No. 10: Larry Sanders, Indiana Pacers
Should F/C Larry Sanders ever find an offensive game to match his defensive presence, he will be a frontcourt force in the years to come. Even with his offense lagging behind his defense, he is still a very talented player.
Sanders has an astounding 7.5 block percentage, the main reason why his defensive rating is a sparkling 98 points allowed per 100 possessions. That is the kind of shot blocking prowess that can change an entire team's defensive performance and one a lot of teams would covet.
Even Dikembe Mutombo and Theo Ratliff would be impressed by Sanders' ability to block shots.
No. 11: Trevor Booker, New Orleans Hornets
Trevor Booker may not be a rookie name that gets a lot of people excited, but the 6'8" power forward has put the minutes he has received to pretty good use. Actually, if we were to extend his rate statistics out to 48 minutes provided the two had played the same number of minutes, Booker would have more win shares than John Wall.
Since the NBA Draft is predicated upon potential, that is the kind of potential that should get a team excited. Booker has a 53.7 true shooting percentage and 106 points produced per 100 possessions.
Also, Booker is an adequate rebounder with a 11.3 total rebounding percentage.
He looks to be a player who only needs more minutes to really show what he can do.
No. 12: Wesley Johnson, Memphis Grizzlies
G/F Wesley Johnson's ability to shoot three-pointers almost makes up for the fact he does not do anything else all that well, but not quite.
Thanks mostly to Johnson's 58.3 effective field goal percentage from three-pointers, he has a 52.9 true shooting percentage overall and an offensive rating of 104 points produced per 100 possessions.
Until he develops more of an offensive game, he will not be as good as he could be, but right now his three-point shooting is a dangerous weapon.
No. 13: Ekpe Udoh, Toronto Raptors
F/C Ekpe Udoh, in limited minutes, has shown the potential to be a very effective low post player on the defensive side of the ball.
Udoh currently has a pretty amazing 5.7 block percentage so he is protecting the rim well as a frontcourt defender.
In addition, Udoh has a 54.3 true shooting percentage and 109 points produced per 100 possessions. If he can keep that up, and maybe even improve it, Udoh will be a very serviceable pro.
No. 14: Quincy Pondexter, Houston Rockets
F Quincy Pondexter is one of a number of rookies who are deserving of more playing time. For the season, he has a 48.9 true shooting percentage and 100 points produced per 100 possessions.
Pondexter also has the backing of a very productive senior season at the University of Washington, where he had a 60.8 true shooting percentage for the 2009-10 college basketball season.
Just like the Washington Huskies are an underrated college basketball team, Pondexter is an underrated player and should go on to have a productive career.
No. 15: Gordon Hayward, Milwaukee Bucks
When G/F Gordon Hayward has been given the chance to play significant minutes this season he has played well, but he has not been able to develop any consistency.
Provided he could put together the same kind of quality performances if he were to receive regular minutes game in and game out, he has a chance to be a pretty good shooter for an NBA franchise.
Until then, his 53.4 true shooting percentage and 102 points produced per 100 possessions are still better than most in his draft class.
No. 16: Evan Turner, Minnesota Timberwolves
G/F Evan Turner has had a terrible rookie campaign compared to the expectations that came along with his being picked second in the 2010 NBA Draft. In this re-drafting, since he is being selected lower, his production this season will not look as bad.
As the 15th pick, his 46.9 true shooting percentage and 95 points produced per 100 possession now are what you would expect.
Of course, his 18.4 defensive rebounding percentage and 11.8 assist percentage to 12.8 turnover percentage for a rookie guard would look more than adequate from any selection.
If Turner can ever learn to shoot well, he will improve his game tremendously.
No. 17: Al-Farouq Aminu, Chicago Bulls
F Al-Farouq Aminu has had a very up-and-down 2010-11 season. Aminu has had a number of good games and he has also had a number of pretty disappointing performances.
Unfortunately for Aminu, the bad games have largely outweighed the good ones and he has only managed to produce 95 points per 100 possessions on a 52.8 true shooting percentage.
He is not a good offensive player yet, and probably will never be on based on his college career at Wake Forest, but like many players in this re-drafting, he is benefiting from the fact his fellow rookies are having very little positive impact on the NBA.
Although his offensive game still needs a lot of work, Aminu is a pretty good defensive rebounder with a 16.2 defensive rebounding percentage. He is also adept at stealing the ball with a 2.3 steal percentage.
Aminu's efforts in rebounding and defense are helping keep his win shares per 48 minutes higher than many other rookies.
No. 18: Xavier Henry, Miami Heat
G Xavier Henry is not excelling this season by any means. Henry entered the NBA with a reputation as an excellent shooter based on his one reason at the University of Kansas, but that has not translated yet to the NBA game, which is why he is not being re-drafted higher.
He only has a 46.0 true shooting percentage and 98 points produced per 100 possessions. Compounding his poor shooting is the fact Henry really has not tried in any other areas. He does not rebound, he does not play defense, and he does not set up his teammates for baskets.
This is a draft pick based solely on the thinking that his shooting should come close to the levels he reached as a Jayhawk.
No. 19: Greivis Vasquez, Boston Celtics
As a point guard, Greivis Vasquez's best attribute is his ability to distribute the ball effectively to teammates to set them up for baskets.
He will probably never shoot a great percentage, and he is not shooting well this season with a 46.6 true shooting percentage, but his 26.2 assist percentage to 20.2 turnover percentage still allows him to have a decent amount of value.
Vasquez will be an effective passing point guard for his career.
No. 20: Eric Bledsoe, San Antonio Spurs
G Eric Bledsoe is averaging 24.4 minutes per game for the Los Angeles Clippers, although he is not really using those minutes well.
Bledsoe has shot poorly from the field, even worse from three-point territory, and has not gotten to the line to offset his inefficient shooting. That is why he has only a 49.1 true shooting percentage and 94 points produced per 100 possessions.
All is not lost for Bledsoe, however, His 25.2 assist percentage to 25.8 turnover percentage is not a terrible ratio and will probably improve as his career progresses. Still, his shooting has a long way to go.
Bledsoe is one of many rookies whose potential outweighs his production.
No. 21: Luke Harangody, Oklahoma City Thunder
Former-Notre Dame F Luke Harangody is the first second-round pick that cracks the first round in this re-drafting.
On a team not so heavily laden with veterans like the Celtics are, we might indeed find out what Harangody is truly capable of. So far, we know his greatest strength is his defensive rebounding, as he has a 19.0 defensive rebounding percentage. Harangody is also capable of blocking a shot on occasion since he does have a 2.2 block percentage.
He should probably be able to shoot better from the field in the future than his current 42.9 true shooting percentage, although he is still producing 100 points per 100 possessions, which is better than most rookies.
No. 22: Derrick Caracter, Portland Trail Blazers
Derrick Caracter's rookie season is similar to Luke Harangody's in that he is on a veteran-laden team so he does not have many opportunities to make it onto the court.
When the 6'9" power forward has gotten playing time this season, Caracter has shot the ball proficiently from the field with a 58.6 true shooting percentage and 106 points produced per 100 possessions.
He needs to become a better rebounder though to become a more well-rounded player.
With more minutes, it is not too bold a prediction that Caracter could continue to be effective.
No. 23: Kevin Seraphin, Minnesota Timberwolves
F/C Kevin Seraphin is one of several rookie frontcourt players whose defense is ahead of their offensive game this season.
For the season, Seraphin has a 4.9 block percentage, which is a much better defensive mark than his 46.1 true shooting percentage and 97 points produced per 100 possessions are offensive statistics.
Seraphin has also shown himself to be quite adept at snatching offensive boards as his 17.8 offensive rebounding percentage demonstrates. With more minutes, the rate might go down, but right now it is pretty impressive.
No. 24: Luke Babbitt, Atlanta Hawks
Even though F Luke Babbitt has not yet had a chance to prove himself on the NBA stage, there is no way a player who put up a season in college where he had a 50.0 field goal percentage, 41.6 three-point percentage, and 91.7 free throw percentage is going to flame out in the NBA.
With that sort of shooting touch, all Babbitt needs is consistent playing time, which is a running theme among most of these rookies. Teams have not yet seen what all these rookies have to offer in actual game situations.
Babbitt is such a pure shooter that it is worth taking him high and seeing what he can do when provided with opportunity.
No. 25: Elliot Williams, Memphis Grizzlies
G Elliot Williams' season may have been ended before it even began due to a knee injury. Luckily, his 2009-10 season for the University of Memphis was good enough to warrant him still being selected in the first round of this re-draft.
During that season, Williams had a 59.9 true shooting percentage by shooting 52.7 percent on two-pointers, 36.6 percent on three-pointers, and 75.8 percent from the free throw line.
With those types of college numbers, Williams should shoot well enough to provide an NBA team with good value.
No: 26: Dominique Jones, Oklahoma City Thunder
Like so many other rookies, G Dominique Jones has not shot the ball well from the field.
His 22.0 assist percentage to 15.1 turnover percentage provide Jones with a ratio that indicates he takes fairly good care of the ball.
On the bright side, Jones is a good defensive rebounder with a 15.1 defensive rebounding percentage.
No. 27: Jordan Crawford, New Jersey Nets
G Jordan Crawford needs to rediscover his shooting touch fast because until he does, he will continue to produce only 83 points produced per 100 possessions.
Crawford is fully capable of being a more efficient shooter, as his 2009-10 season at Xavier demonstrated. He simply needs to translate that to the NBA and not force up too many shots until he is sure he is taking the best shot possible.
Crawford needs to do what so many rookies need to do, which is to realize his potential.
No. 28: Avery Bradley, New Jersey Nets
The 6'2" G might be in the NBA D-League now, but that does not necessarily make Avery Bradley a bad player. He is just a player that the Boston Celtics do not need on their roster right now.
He should be a good perimeter shooter when he does get a chance to play, but asking him to play point guard for an NBA team might be a bad idea.
Still, his shooting is enough to get him a spot in the first round of the re-draft.
No. 29: Cole Aldrich, Orlando Magic
C Cole Aldrich will probably never be a dominating presence offensively, but he could be a major difference maker on the defensive side of the ball with his ability to block shots.
According to kenpom.com, while at the University of Kansas, Aldrich was fifth in college basketball last season with his 13.0 block percentage. It is worth seeing if that will translate to the NBA.
No. 30: Lazar Hayward, Washington Wizards
The best thing that could be said about F Lazar Hayward is that even though he does not possess the upside of other rookies, he has not been the worst rookie player this season.
That is good enough to find himself selected with the last pick of this re-draft.