NBA Progress Report: A Review of Over/Unders, Pt. 1
Let's take a look at how teams are doing according to their preseason over/under predictions.
Starting off the first half of the teams in order of predicted win total, we'll begin with the preseason's most hyped-up team, the Miami Heat...
1. Heat – Preseason over/under 64.5
23-9. Still on pace for the under.
The Heat have gone 9-1 since my 2/8ths of the season review, including wins against the Lakers, Knicks, Hornets and Jazz. Their one loss came against the Mavericks.
Pretty impressive run. I doubt they continue winning 90 percent of their games for the remainder of the year, but I’m not feeling as confident on the under as I was a couple weeks ago.
2. Lakers – 57.5
21-9. Almost exactly on pace, just a bit under.
For all the media attention on how poorly the Lakers are playing, they’ve won seven of 10 in this eighth of the season. Barring injury, the Lakers should easily cover the over. Andrew Bynum is back now and will only play better.
3. Magic – 56.5
19-12. On pace for the under.
What a difference an eighth makes. In the 2/8ths edition, the Magic were cruising to the over. Then they lost a few games, revamped their entire team, and finished the eighth at 4-6. I don’t like this new-look Magic team and think they’ll finish the season under.
4. Celtics – 53.5
23-5. Way on pace for the over.
While the Heat got all the hype, the Celtics also finished the eighth at 9-1, and their one loss was a game they gave away to the Magic on Christmas. Easy cover for the over.
5. Thunder – 52.5
21-11. On pace for the over.
Finishing the eighth at 7-3 lifted the Thunder to "over" pace.
They’ve played better since I bashed them in the 2/8th edition. Kevin Durant's starting to heat up, and Russell Westbrook's still playing well. I don’t see them being a factor in the postseason, though.
6. Blazers – 51.5
16-15. On pace for the under.
No Brandon Roy or Greg Oden, no problem. The Blazers are 7-4 in this eighth and have crawled their way above .500 and into the playoff hunt. The improved play is a direct shot at Roy, who had been dragging the team down with his whiny and selfish play. Time to trade him while he has some value.
7. Spurs – 50.5
26-4. Way on pace for the over.
Another team to go 9-1 in this eighth. They’re running away with the top seed in the West and are in a battle with the Celtics for the best record in the NBA. I don’t see this holding up, but that’s what I’ve been saying since Day One.
T8. Jazz – 49.5
21-10. On pace for the over.
They’re only 5-4 this eighth, but I love this team and their depth. There’s been some rumors swirling around an Al Jefferson trade—a trade that would net the Jazz cap relief but no real help on the court. While Okur is back now, I think it’d be a big mistake to dump Jefferson.
T8. Mavs – 49.5
24-5. Way on pace for the over.
Yet another team that has gone 9-1 this eighth. Their one loss came at home against the Bucks. Go figure. However, Dirk Nowitzki left the last game with a knee injury and is set for an MRI. I think the over bet is safe even if Dirk has to miss some time.
10. Rockets – 47.5
15-15. On pace for the under.
This team mirrors the Blazers. Both teams got lots of love from Vegas in the preseason. Both teams disappoint early on. Both teams lose their star players (Blazers: Roy and Oden; Rockets: Yao Ming), and both teams go on a run as a result and are now battling each other for the eighth seed in the West.
The Rockets have gone 8-2 this eighth, though, and I hope they continue to win, as they’re a great story.
T11. Bulls – 46.5
19-10. On pace for the over.
They went from slightly on pace for the over to way beyond pace for the over thanks to going 8-2 this eighth. They struggled initially when Joakim Noah went out, but Carlos Boozer has settled in and been a beast. The Rockets, Blazers and Bulls are all showing that centers in the NBA are easily replaceable.
T11. Hawks – 46.5
20-13. On pace for the over.
They were a bit up-and-down this eighth, going 6-5. The Hawks are the OKC Thunder of the East. Decent enough regular-season team with zero shot in the playoffs.
13. Bucks – 45.5
12-17. Way on pace for the under.
With the Blazers and Rockets slightly redeeming Vegas prognostications, the Bucks are continuing to make Vegas look the fool.
This is a strange team, as they’ve beaten some of the league’s best, including ending the Mavericks’ and Lakers’ winning streaks. Their schedule is not going to help them meet the over as they face Chicago, Dallas, Miami (twice) and Orlando in their next five.
14. Nuggets – 43.5
16-13. On pace for the over.
This was a team I was confident in for the over, but they’ve experienced a bit of a dip with Carmelo Anthony missing some time due to the death of his sister. I’m a bit nervous because it’s a given that Melo will be traded, and I expected they’d be better without him.
15. Suns – 42.5
13-16. On pace for the under.
They’ve collapsed this eighth, going 2-7. Steve Nash is great, but the team keeps losing players; there’s only so much he can do.
Trading away Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu is not the end of the world in itself, but the accumulation of trades has led to such a talent drain that Nash is now relying on guys like Grant Hill and Josh Childress to win. I don’t think they can come back and challenge the Rockets or Blazers for the eighth spot.
