NBA Trades: 10 Predictions for What Trades Will and Won't Happen
The 2010-11 NBA season is underway and many teams are already looking for ways to improve their rosters on the court—and off it, financially.
With the possibility of a lockout after this season, many teams are looking to shape their rosters before the conclusion of this year's NBA Finals.
The players have the most to lose with all of the possible outcomes involving the new collective-bargaining agreement between the league and the players association.
The NBA offices want to reduce player salaries in part to enable small market teams to afford multiple stars without breaking the bank, and also to create a quality bench of role players.
An example of this is Carmelo Anthony's situation with the Denver Nuggets. Anthony can be a free agent next season but he will earn a higher salary if he re-signs this season.
Anthony has shown repeatedly that he is highly unlikely to re-sign with the Nuggets long term, so the team that acquires him in a trade will require that he sign a contract extension upon arrival.
Next we will look at 10 trade scenarios that are likely to happen and others that are more fiction than fact.
10. Steve Nash Will Not Be Traded This Season
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Trading Steve Nash would be a poor decision for the Phoenix Suns, both financially and in terms of their on-court product.
Nash is the face of the franchise and sells tickets for a team that will struggle to make the playoffs this year after making the Western Conference Finals last season.
The Suns decided to let Amar'e Stoudemire go to New York this summer via free agency, thus leaving Nash as the only high-profile player on the roster.
Phoenix's success is all about Nash: He runs the offense as one of the best playmakers in the NBA and provides solid scoring and excellent free-throw shooting.
Nash is likely to leave Phoenix very soon, but he will not during this season.
9. The Miami Heat Will Acquire a Center
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If the Miami Heat want to get out of the second round in this year's NBA playoffs, they must upgrade at the center position.
Chris Bosh is not a good defender and cannot guard elite centers and power forwards. Joel Anthony is a physical center but he is severely undersized.
To compete with Boston, the Lakers and Orlando, Pat Riley must find a better, more defensive-minded center for his Heat team.
The playoffs are more of a half-court game than the regular season, and Miami's defense upfront is lacking tremendously so far in the half court.
8. The Boston Celtics Will Not Be Active at The Trade Deadline
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The Boston Celtics have been active the last three trade deadlines and, for the most part, their decisions have proved quite helpful.
In 2008, they acquired Sam Cassell to play the backup point-guard role, which helped Boston win the 2008 NBA championship.
In 2009, Celtics general manager Danny Ainge acquired Stephon Marbury and, while it was not a disaster, the move did not make the Celtics any better, and they eventually lost in the Eastern Conference Semifinals to Orlando.
The Celtics traded with the Knicks at the deadline for a second year in a row last season to acquire Nate Robinson for several players, including Eddie House.
Robinson has been a great addition to the Celtics with his instant offense off the bench and his ability to backup Rajon Rondo.
This season the Celtics are plenty deep to make a Finals run. Their only addition will come from players off the injury list, not from other teams.
7. The New Jersey Nets Will Not Trade For Carmelo Anthony
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The New Jersey Nets are one of only a few teams that have the collection of young talent to make a quality package for Carmelo Anthony.
The Nets would be wise, however, not to sacrifice young talent to acquire Anthony.
The Nets are poised to move to Brooklyn within the next few seasons and will not have a problem selling tickets.
The Denver Nuggets will need this year's third-overall draft selection—forward Derrick Favors—to be included in any trade package.
Favors is a solid player who has tremendous upside and has shown he belongs in the NBA.
Other Nets players Denver would consider are Devin Harris and Brook Lopez. Harris is not a good fit because Denver has Chauncey Billups at point guard, and it's unlikely New Jersey will let a solid center like Lopez leave.
The Nets could easily trade for Carmelo Anthony tomorrow, but it would not be a wise move going forward for a team not ready to compete this season with-or-without Anthony.
6. The Knicks Will Actively Pursue Carmelo Anthony
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It's no secret that both Carmelo Anthony and the New York Knicks have mutual interest in each other. Anthony has said the Knicks are a team he would strongly consider as a free agent or as a trade suitor.
The Knicks' problem is they have little to offer to the Nuggets.
The Knicks have a few young, talented players, but it's not likely to be enough to acquire Anthony.
If New York is willing to part with forward Danilo Gallinari, then the Nuggets might listen intently. Wilson Chandler, Bill Walker and Anthony Randolph are all quality players who have great potential.
The Knicks will no doubt try to trade for Anthony, but a lack of young talent and no quality draft picks may limit their chances.
5. The Golden State Warriors Will Trade Monta Ellis
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Monta Ellis is one of the premier scoring guards in the NBA. Ellis is more of a shooting guard but has found himself playing many minutes at point guard during his tenure in Golden State.
With Stephen Curry establishing himself as an elite point guard in only his second season, Ellis has become expendable.
The combination of Ellis and Curry will not work well long term. The Warriors play little defense and could use Ellis to acquire more defensive-minded players.
Ellis' contract is not huge and many teams could use his scoring and athleticism.
The Warriors have plenty of scoring but will never compete until they address their defensive inabilities.
4. Andre Igoudala Will Not Be Traded From Philadelphia
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Andre Iguodala has yet to become the best player he can be and this season is his last shot for a major breakout.
Many 76ers fans believe Andre can be a superstar player capable of leading a team as the primary guy, but he has yet to show that kind of ability.
Iguodala showed signs of improvement with Team USA during the FIBA World Championships this summer, winning the tournament.
Iguodala and Evan Turner are the cornerstones of the 76ers and, as a young team, the front office and fans must be patient and let the talent develop.
Doug Collins is a great coach but he needs time to teach his young players. Iguodala will draw interest near the trade deadline, but unless a team overpays, the 76ers will not trade him.
3. Andrew Bynum Will Not Be Traded
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Andrew Bynum's injury would devastate most NBA teams, but not the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Lakers have a lot of depth and have not missed a beat without Bynum at center.
Pau Gasol has shown throughout his career that he can handle the offensive and defensive requirements of the center position, and ultra-versatile Lamar Odom is a capable power forward.
Bynum has not rehabbed well and is taking longer to return to the Lakers lineup than anticipated.
Los Angeles will give Bynum all the time he needs to be fully healthy for the playoffs. Fortunately for the Lakers, they can afford to do that while still playing like an elite team.
Trading Bynum is not a possibility this season, but perhaps it will be an option next summer.
2. The Detroit Pistons Will Make Several Big Changes
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The Detroit Pistons enjoyed nearly a decade of great success starting in 2000 and lasting through 2009.
A period of rebuilding follows nearly every era of success, and the Pistons' situation is no different.
After signing Ben Gordon to a large contract before last season, the Pistons have not been able to create a playoff-worthy roster.
They have several unhappy players and many of them could find new homes by season's end. Young point guard Rodney Stuckey is becoming impatient with the team and he could be an upgrade at point guard for many NBA teams.
Stuckey is still very young and it's unlikely Detroit will give up on him now.
Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton are the players with the best chance of being traded by the deadline. Prince's versatility, length and defensive abilities would make him very valuable to every contending team.
Hamilton can still score and would make a solid offensive threat off the bench.
Pistons general manager Joe Dumars has his hands full this season. Fortunately, he has several attractive players that could allow him to stock the Pistons with enough young talent to build another long era of success.
1. Gilbert Arenas Will Remain In Washington For The Entire Season
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Gilbert Arenas is too valuable to the Wizards' on-court success for this season. Even though his off-the-court troubles have damaged his relationship with the team, he gives them the best chance to win games.
He is the Wizards' only proven scorer and has been able to co-exist well with rookie point guard John Wall.
Arenas can play both guard positions and gives coach Flip Saunders a quality point guard with both the starting and bench lineups.
The Wizards should look to move Arenas in the summer and let John Wall become the undisputed face of the franchise. But for now, Arenas is a crucial part to their short-term success.
Gilbert's off-court troubles will hurt the quality of players Washington could receive in a trade involving him.
John Wall is the cornerstone of the Washington Wizards, but Gilbert Arenas can help him grow as a player and set an example of what an All-Star caliber guard should play like.
Recap: Many Possibilities, Few Certainties
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This season is sure to be one of the most active years ever in terms of player movement. There are many teams that will view themselves as one good player away from contending for a championship.
The possibility of a lockout and a reduction in player salaries will play a huge role in the decision-making process of players and general managers alike.
Elite teams like the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers could be poised to make a major move if they feel it will put them over the top to win a championship this season.
The next year-and-a-half will see lots of change affect the NBA, but the months leading up to the February 2011 trade deadline will change the power structure of the NBA for years to come.
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