Raptors vs. Heat: Miami Favored To End Losing Streak with Extinction Level Event

The Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors enter tonight's game in surprising roles. The Heat have lost two home games in a row while the Raptors are trying to be the second underdog this week to sweep through the state of Florida after last night's defeat of the Orlando Magic.

Based on the formula for determining a team's probability of winning a single game, the Heat have a 96.6 percent chance of beating the Raptors and sending their two-game losing streak into extinction.

Here's a breakdown of the numbers used to determine the Heat's probability of winning:

• Miami Heat
  • Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.154 (see the Heat Produced page)
  • Average Possessions Per Game: 91.5 (see basketball-reference.com)
  • Days Rest: One (last game was 112-107 loss to Boston Celtics on 11/11/10)
  • Location: American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL (low altitude)
• Toronto Raptors
  • Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.076 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)
  • Average Possessions Per Game: 95.9
  • Days Rest: Zero (last game was a 110-106 win in Orlando on 11/12/10)

There are several big questions surrounding the Heat in this game, but the biggest one will be whether or not Chris Bosh can break out of his own two-game slump and dominate his old team after being outplayed by Paul Millsap and Kevin Garnett this week. The figure below illustrates how Bosh's performance this season compares to the replacement power forwards in Toronto, Reggie Evans and Amir Johnson.

Comparing Chris Bosh to His Replacements
Points per shot = (PTS-FTM)/Shots Attempted
Adj. Shooting % = Points-per-shot/2
Net Possessions = REB+STL-TO
WP48 = Wins Produced per 48 Minutes
All stats are per 48 minutes

Statistics	Chris Bosh	Reggie Evans	Amir Johnson	Average PF
Points per shot	0.97	0.46	1.26	1.00
Adj. Shooting %	49%	23%	63%	50%
Free Throw %	79%	44%	89%	76%
Shot Attempts	16.2	5.7	11.8	15.9
Free Throw Attempts	6.9	3.5	5.9	5.2
Points	21.2	4.2	20.3	19.9
Rebounds	8.6	20.7	14.0	12.0
Steals	1.0	2.2	1.6	1.2
Turnovers	1.0	1.5	3.1	1.9
Net Possessions	8.6	21.4	12.5	11.3
Blocks	1.6	0.4	2.5	1.0
Assists	2.5	2.0	0.6	1.6
Personal Fouls	2.5	5.3	8.7	5.1
Win Score	11.0	16.7	15.3	11.5
WP48	0.083	0.277	0.228	0.100

It looks like the Raptors have not missed Bosh at all so far, and he has another uphill battle coming his way in the paint tonight, but I don't think Toronto will be able to exploit that matchup enough to win the game.

Predicted score: Heat 105, Raptors 92

Stats for the Raptors were taken from the NBeh? blog. Chris Bosh's stats were taken from the Heat Produced page.

For more information on Win Score and Wins Produced see the article Wins Produced vs. Win Score.