With the NBA season set to tip-off on Tuesday of next week, there should be plenty of drafts taking place this weekend.
If you’re drafting this weekend you want to make sure you are prepared, so I have put together my own ADP (average draft position) report to let you know who is going to high and who is going to low so you won’t make the same mistakes.
Some things are obvious, like Allen Iverson being the 123rd player taken on Yahoo on average, that’s just ridiculous. But I have some of the not so obvious guys who’s draft position is out of whack, in my opinion.
There are many ADP sites you can use, but for the purpose of this article I am going to be sticking to Yahoo’s average draft positions.
Going Too High
Derrick Rose (ADP 31): I know a lot of people love Derrick Rose. Daniel Shirley, who writes here for us, is one of them and we have had lots of discussions about Rose’s value.
I just don’t see him as a top 10 point guard and this puts him in there.
This also puts him ahead of Tyreke Evans, Darren Collison, Aaron Brooks and Russell Westbrook, all of whom I prefer.
Rose is a great player, but I think his skills translate much better to real basketball than to fantasy basketball. He does score and score often, but he lacks the other things a top 10 needs.
He isn’t a top tier assist guy, he can’t shoot threes, he doesn’t even average a full steal a game and while he doesn’t hurt you at the free throw line, he doesn’t help you either.
I love Derrick Rose as a player, but as a fantasy player I think he is overrated and you should avoid being sucked into this trap.
Take a solid big man like Al Horford or Al Jefferson early in the third round and grab one of the point guards I mentioned earlier in the fourth round and you’ll be much better off.
Carl Landry (ADP 95.3): Landry was a solid player last season and put up a strong scoring average of 16.8 points a game. However, his contributions on the boards leaves a little to be desired as he didn’t quite clear six a game last year. And he doesn’t overwhelm you with defensive stats either.
The other issue is that Sacramento frontcourt is getting a little crowded.
Jason Thompson is going to push Landry for minutes and even though Samuel Dalembert is out initially he will return at some point and create even more of a log jam with Demarcus Cousins needing minutes as well.
I like Landry, but at the same spot that you take him you could have Michael Beasley, J.J. Hickson or teammate Demarcus Cousins, all of whom I’d rather have.
Andrea Bargnani (ADP 33.7): A lot of people think Bargnani is going to step up and be the man in Toronto this year with Chris Bosh out of town. I’m still a bit skeptical of that, myself, and in my opinion, this is way to high to take Bargnani.
It’s nice to have a big man who can step outside and knock down a three, but if you draft right you don’t have to have one of them. What you need is for your big man to grab some rebounds which is something Bargnani leaves a bit to be desired at, grabbing just over six a game last year.
He’s still young and getting better, so maybe he improves that number, but he’s too much of a wild card for me to take early in the third round. Also he’s not the only scoring option in Toronto as Linas Kleiza has proven more than capable of hitting shots this preseason.
Going Too Low
Devin Harris (62.6 ADP): This Nets team is going to be better this year and Devin Harris is going to be right at the heart of it.
He was injured early last season and never seemed to completely get things together, but he’s healthy now and should rebound nicely. He’s only a year removed from a season where he averaged 21.3 points and 6.9 assists and while I don’t think he’ll approach that scoring total, I do think he surpasses the assist total.
With Brook Lopez and Troy Murphy up front and some talented guys on the wing, Harris should have a lot of fun running the point on this team and should be able to find the open guys.
I expect a career high in assists and a steady amount of points to go with it. Harris is also one of the best steals guys in the league and you can count on 1.5 a game at least I think. Considering he is being drafted after Raymond Felton and Gilbert Arenas he has tremendous value here.
Emeka Okafor (96.8 ADP): Okafor has now gone three straight years without missing a single game. Any worry about his durability should be answered by now.
He had some struggles in his first season with the Hornets, dropping below 10 rebounds a game for the first time in his career as well as posting a career low in points per game and blocks per game.
I expect him to bounce back this season, but even if he posted the same numbers as last year he is better than where he is being drafted.
Okafor is a double-double machine and when he is on his game he is also one of the best pure shot blockers in basketball. I think we can expect a rise in each of the primary three categories, points, rebounds and blocks as Okafor should enjoy a full year with a healthy Chris Paul.
Michael Beasley (108 ADP): I had Michael Beasley ranked at 76th overall so I obviously think this ADP is skewed. I don’t know exactly how much better the Timberwolves are going to be in terms of wins and losses, but I think they should be an exciting team to watch if nothing else, and Michael Beasley has a real shot at being the leading man on the offensive end.
He has played second fiddle to Dwayne Wade in his first two seasons, but now he has the chance to become the star people thought he would be when he was drafted.
Beasley’s 13.3 shots per game will be somewhere in the 16–17 range this year, and as he continues to get better so will his shot selection and overall production. A lot of people forget that Beasley is only 21 years old and he is still developing and learning.
The Heat might have given up on him, but you shouldn’t. If you can get him at 108th you’re doing well for yourself because I suspect Beasley has the potential to be as high as top 50 as soon as this season.
So there are your guys going too high and too low in drafts right now. Keep an eye out for these guys in your draft and don’t be the guy who picks based on name value, but do your homework and know what you are getting.
For more draft sleepers check out these links: