Chris Bosh, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade: Are They Enough for an NBA Ring?

This article is based in large part on comments in response to my article yesterday. Thanks to those who commented yesterday and to my other articles. I like to think that I'm objective, but no one is immune to bias.  Intelligent comments challenge me to challenge myself and analyze my own conclusions. I believe that good writing is as much about what you write as it is about how well you write. What you write depends on what you learn. Intelligent comments are a source of learning for me, so please keep them coming. 

If you look at the Player Efficiency Ratings for the 2009-2010 season, it doesn't take long to figure out why Heat fans are excited about next year. LeBron James finished first with 31.1, Dwayne Wade was second with 28.0, and Chris Bosh was fourth with 25.0. You could make an argument that, as far as a top three go, this is the most talented trio in the history of the NBA, and with that much talent at the top, there's no way that they don't win an NBA championship. 

Then there's the rest of the team. After "Miami Thrice," there's a tremendous drop off in talent. No player other than the three big stars has a PER over 15.0. Take a look at the starting five, plus the five players listed second on the depth charts. 

PLAYER	PER
LeBron James	31.1
Dwayne Wade	28.0
Chris Bosh	25.0
Udonis Haslem	14.6
Mike Miller	14.0
Carlos Arroyo	12.2
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	11.2
Mario Chalmers	10.7
Eddie House	10.3
Joel Anthony	10.2

Here's the most striking number of all. The Big 3 combine for a total PER of 84.1. The rest of the team combines for a total PER of 83.2. That's a pretty top-heavy team, or at least it appears to be on the surface. My next thought is to compare it with a team that is perceived to have both star-power and depth to see first how the total PER compares and also how the balance compares. The obvious team that comes to mind is the 2009-10 LA Lakers.

PLAYER	PER
Pau Gasol	22.9
Kobe Bryant	21.9
Andrew Bynam	20.2
Lamar Odom	15.9
Shannon Brown	12.4
Jordan Farmar	12.3
Ron Artest	12.1
Sasha Vujacic	11.6
Derek Fisher	9.3
Josh Powel	6.7

Now the first thing that leaped out at me was that Derek Fisher's PER was pretty low, and I'll address why that strikes me as significant in a moment. The next thing was that the overall sum of the Lakers' championship PER was 22 points lower than what Miami is putting on the court next season. Now, obviously, with Bosh, Wade, and James, all of them will have their PER drop somewhat this year since they are going from being the primary option on otherwise "bad" teams to sharing the ball with one another. It goes without saying they can't maintain the same production. The question is how much will it dip, and we have to resolve that before we can resolve the "top heavy" problem. 

It's hard to draw to hard a line in the sand, but we can try and take a look at a similar situation, when the Celtics all teamed up, and see how much their PER dropped. Allen went from 21.6 to 16.4. Garnett actually rose from 24.1 to 25.3, but the three years prior he was higher than 24.1, ranging from 26.4 to 29.4. We'll take the average of 27.5 since some of that low might have been his having a down year due to injury problems. Pierce dropped from 21.7 to 19.6. All told the three combined for 70.8 the year before and fell to a combined total of 61.3, or a 13 percent drop off. Accounting that same 13 percent drop off to "Miami Thrice," the projected combined PER of the superstars should be in the neighborhood of 75, still significantly higher than the best three the Lakers can put on the court. Even accounting for the drop off the total PER of the Heat would seem to exceed the sum PER of the Lakers. 

In terms of rest of the team's production, there are two ways of looking at the two teams. After the Lakers' big three of Kobe, Pau and Bynum, the rest of the next 7 main contributors combined for 80.1 PER. On the Heat, the next the next 7 combined for 83.2. So, on that front you could make an argument that Miami is actually deeper than the Lakers. However, that might be a bit overstated. Players like Miller and Haslem had bigger roles on their teams last year than they will this year, but it still does show that Rilley did a pretty amazing job of filling out a roster he didn't have a lot of money to spend on. 

Another perspective suggests that the Lakers' big three only accounted for 44.5 percent of the Lakers' PER while the Heat's big three, even after accounting for the fall off in production, would account for about 46.7 percent of the Heat's production. 

Now, on the Fisher observation, it's telling in the sense that it's actually lower than Mario Chalmers. One of the key criticisms of the Heat is that they don't have a good enough PG to win it all. However, Fisher's production isn't that dramatic either, and the Lakers have won back to back championships. It's not an unfair comparison for a couple of reasons. First, we can surmise that the Heat are hoping to get "Fisher-like" production from their point-guard based on the fact that they actually tried to sign Fisher. Secondly, it seems fair because while they won't be running a triangle offense (or at least I haven't heard they will), they will have the personnel to effectively have the same type of offense. In James, Wade, and Chalmers, they have three players who are adept with passing. In other words, all they need in Chalmers is a distributor, and he's capable of doing that much. 

My inclination in studying these things is primarily to learn, not to prove. In the end, I have to say that I'm more impressed with the Heat's roster than I had been. Riley has established himself as a GM that can rival Jerry West: first for assembling the big three in the first place, and then for putting a team around them with little money to do it that can compliment them enough to win. While I still hope the Bulls can win, and think it's possible, I have to say that the Heat are the team to beat.