NBA Future Rankings Part I: Teams 1-10, The Contenders

The future rankings for the years 2010-11, 11-12, and 12-13, is an interesting subject to read about. Unfortunately though, to read ESPN's rankings, you have to be an "Insider". This involves paying money every month, something most of us, like me, can't afford to do.

I may not be an "expert", but I thought I'd give my picks, free of charge!

Keep in mind that this is for the next three years, and many factors including current players and coaches, expected development, potential free agency and injury problems, management, owner's resources, draft picks etc. are taken into consideration. Thus, many good teams are lower than you might expect.

Also, as an example, many expect the Thunder to be the team of the future, but because this is just the next three years, they probably won't have a better record than the Lakers or Magic.

Anyways, enjoy the article and think of what to do with the money you are saving!

1. Miami Heat

There shouldn't be too much argument here. The Heat have three All-Star players early in their primes. They did a pretty good job of building a roster around them and should be at the top of the league for several years if the chemistry isn't too bad.

Key piece: LeBron James

2. Orlando Magic

There are some concerns with Orlando's future, as Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis are past their primes. But because of Dwight Howard, an owner who is willing to spend big, and several complementary pieces who are likely to be around awhile (Nelson, Redick, Pietrus), Orlando will likely be a top two or three team for awhile longer. Howard even has room to grow his offensive game, and if that happens, a championship is very much in reach.

Key piece: Dwight Howard

3. Los Angeles Lakers

Kobe is at last beginning to dwindle, the team is aging, and HOF coach Phil Jackson may retire after this year.

Despite this, LA is probably good for at least one more Finals run. Kobe may not be an MVP again, but he is still a fierce competitor and is unlikely to allow his team to struggle much. The threesome of Andrew Bynum (if healthy), Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom is a very difficult matchup for any team. Add this to the decent complementary players, the popularity of L.A. and the team, and good management, and the Lakers look to be headed to continued playoff berths.

Key piece: Andrew Bynum

4. Portland Trail Blazers

With a superstar guard, a good (and improving) second option, a defensive wingman with huge upside, a veteran point guard and center, and a deep bench, Portland looks headed for success.

Top players Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge are still young, small forward Nicolas Batum is already a solid player and has incredible room for growth, and injury-plagued, but still determined, center Greg Oden still has potential. Reinforcing them are skilled veterans and explosive young players, as well as owner Paul Allen's deep pockets.

Questions still linger for Portland though: Can they get past their injury problems? Do they have what it takes to finally advance in the playoffs? Is underrated vet Andre Miller sufficient at the point? 

Key piece: Greg Oden

5 (tie). Chicago Bulls

Derrick Rose was already an All-Star in year two of his young career. Joakim Noah and Luol Deng helped Rose get a very mediocre Chicago team to the playoffs last year, and with the development of the younger players and the addition of star Carlos Boozer and several good role players, Chicago could take the next step.

The biggest question are whether Boozer can stay healthy and play as well as he did in contract year, if Noah's feet slow him down much, and if Rose turns into a superstar. 

Key piece(s): Carlos Boozer/Derrick Rose/Joakim Noah 

5 (tie). Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are a fun team to watch and Kevin Durant is a model superstar in the NBA, but I think that the national media and many fans have been a little too quick to jump on their bandwagon. In a conference where rivals like Portland, Houston, and San Antonio had to fight through major injuries, the Thunder were free of big injuries. They have also won only two playoff games.

At the same time, Durant is one of the top 10 players in the league, guard Russel Westbrook is a future All-Star and very underrated, and they have a very good young supporting cast (especially Jeff Green) and general manager.

Key Piece: Russel Westbrook

Anytime a team has probably the best point guard (Deron Williams) and one of the top coaches (Jerry Sloan) in the league, they should be just fine. The acquisition of Al Jefferson helped Utah out a lot, but I don't see them as title contenders. Still, with Williams and Sloan leading and Jefferson, Paul Millsap, and a variety of role players behind them, they should keep up their playoff-making ways.

There is one piece however, that could change things if utilized in a trade...

Key piece: Andrei Kirilenko's large expiring contract.

8. Atlanta Hawks

Nearly all the Hawks top players are in their primes. Al Horford and Josh Smith can probably develop their games even further, but the main focus for the Hawks should be playing consistently. If they play their best every game, they could be dark-horse contenders. If not, they have no way to go but down.

After Joe Johnson's huge deal, there are questions over whether Horford or Jamal Crawford will be retained after this year. The loss of either of those players (barring unexpected performances from others, like rookie Jordan Crawford) would shoot their chances of advancing further.

Key Piece: Al Horford

9. Houston Rockets

Obviously a big part of Houston's fate rests on the large feet of Yao Ming. If he can come back strong from his injury, they could potentially even be a title contender. But even with that risk, they still look pretty good. They are very deep at every position and are very well coached by Rick Adelman. Also, they still have room to grow with several young players, draft picks, and a shrewd general manager.

Look for Houston to be a dark-horse contender for L.A.'s western conference throne.  

Key piece: Yao Ming

10. New York Knicks

The Knicks added some good pieces this summer, and could be a playoff team this year. Much will be decided by Amare Stoudemire's health and play. Young players Danilo Galinari and Anthony Randolph have enormous potential, and many solid or potential-filled players were added.

But it is not their potential for this year that has the Knicks ranked this highly, but their potential to score in next summer's free agency. They have a good chance at grabbing star Carmelo Anthony and/or Tony Parker. If they get Parker, they will almost certainly be a playoff team. If they get Anthony, or especially both, they could be contenders. They should have a much better shot at Anthony than they did with LeBron James. 

Part II coming your way in the near future...